Race 6 - # 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (Final Odds 1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Fashion Plate (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Robert J Frankel - # 7 Customer Base (4.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Warrens Lil Margie (5.20) - No Selection
Could not have asked for a better setup going into the finale, with "A" Contenders winning the first three legs, two of whom were not the Post Time Favorite. For the record, the Will Pays for the five horses we were alive to in the last leg:
$1 Wagers:
# 1 Grammy Times Six - $270.00
# 8 Impeccably $233.20
$0.50 Wagers:
# 2 Raja’s Rose $487.65
# 4 Cheeky Stone $620.45
# 5 Mini Candy $123.05
But while we were in excellent shape heading into the final race, it would be wrong to say that we came close to cashing in. None of our five horses finished in the money; and, had I gone deeper in the final leg, I would have incorporated Place horse # 7 Big Rosie Brown (7.90) and Show horse # 3 Chicago Angel (7.80) into my play before I would have gotten around to adding the winner, Warrens Lil Margie, to my tickets. And since the Super High Five went unhit, I feel that I was not alone in not having a good handle on this one.
So we had some fun and we got a lot of action out of our play, but the bottom line is that all our Late Pick Four Tickets bite the dust, resulting in a Net Loss of $70.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 5 / 7 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $243.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 29, 2013
12/29/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
A Sunday of beginnings and endings, as we come to the final Sunday of 2013, but the first Sunday of the new elongated Santa Anita meet. Today's Late Pick Four is an all female affair, with all four legs restricted to runners on the distaff side. There's a Graded Stakes, a down the hill charge on the grass, and a couple of maiden events. Should be fun; Good Lord willing, it will also be profitable.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $32k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Cayanna (ML 8-1)
# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 All On the Table (ML 6-1)
# 9 Creditcardroulette (ML 10-1)
Joeandbetty'sbaby won a Starter Allowance back in October charging down this hill. While the competition will be much tougher today, the Beyer Speed Figure that she earned that day should get the job done today. Joeandbetty'sbaby also has a late running style which should serve her quite well against this field. Bejarano, who was on board for that October victory, will be in the saddle again today.
Cayanna just missed at this level over this surface her last time out. But that was back in February; and Cayanna's trainer, Doug O'Neill (who also trains Joeandbetty'sbaby) does not have a good record with runners returning from a vacation of greater than six months. However, I think Cayanna can be competitive against this field even if she doesn't fire her best shot.
As I'm taking a stand against the front runners in this event, All On the Table is one that would normally get tossed as well. But her blinkers are coming off for this one, and she has shown the ability to rate in the past. All On the Table isn't the best horse in this field (in my opinion), or even one of the three best horses in this field; but if she can be kept out the early pace battle that I believe will define this race, then the potential for upset is definitely here. For that same reason I'll be adding Creditcardroulette to the mix; the late running style just might carry the day.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Fashion Plate (ML 7-2)
# 8 Beverly the Boss (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Had she not scratched, I would have used # 2 Star Sighting (ML 3-1) as an "A" Contender as well.
Fashion Plate took a big step forward last time out in her second career start, taking the Show at this level earlier this month at Hollywood Park. If her form carries over from the cushion track to real dirt (and, based upon her bullet works over this track back in November, there's no reason why it shouldn't) Fashion Plate should join the ranks of winners today.
Beverly the Boss is by a sire whose progeny win over 20% of the time their first time out. Beverly the Boss is also trained by Peter Miller, who has a .23 Winning Percentage with first time starters. If Fashion Plate should fail to fire, Beverly the Boss strikes me as the logical choice to get her picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 8 - (F) The Robert J Frankel (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Stormy Lucy (ML 9-2)
# 7 Customer Base (ML 3-1)
# 9 Appealing (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Playful Humor (ML 15-1)
# 3 Moone's My Name (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Gulsary (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Champagneandcaviar (ML 10-1)
Stormy Lucy won by four two starts back over multiple Graded Stakes winner (and odds-on favorite) Halo Dolly. Appealing (Ire) just missed by a head taking the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, finishing in front of (among others) Customer Base. However, it was Customer Base crossing the wire ahead of Appealing in the Grade 2 Goldikova in their last contest. No doubt all three "A" Contenders will be grateful that they won't be facing Egg Drop yet again.
It took Playful Humor ten starts to finally break her maiden; but once she figured out that she wasn't entered in races just to have an afternoon jog with her friends she has performed quite nicely, winning three of her last four. This will be a big step up the class ladder for Playful Humor, but Trainer Neil Drysdale is no stranger to winning Graded Stakes at nice prices. Note that Playful Humor has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
While still one to be reckoned with, I don't see Moone's My Name (GB) getting the nice easy lead today that she got while wiring the field her last time out. Gulsary (ML 4-1) is the other half of an uncoupled entry with Customer Base, as both are owned by Glen Hill Farm and trained by Thomas Proctor.
Champagneandcaviar is the only entrant in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass, which she did two starts back over this turf course at Final Odds of 57-1.
I don't see any clear standout in this field, as none of the entrants show a Graded Stakes win in their recent (ten race) form. The three "A" Contenders all show efforts in their last two races which, if repeated, should bring them victory today. But in my opinion this is a wide open affair, and one in which I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Grammy Times Six (ML 4-1)
# 8 Impeccably (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Raja's Rose (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cheeky Stone (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mini Candy (ML 4-1)
Grammy Times Six gets some much need class relief. She's shown speed in each of her two career starts, and draws the rail today. Impeccably goes for a conditioner (Adam Kitchingman) who gets 21% winners out of Maiden Claimers, to go along with a .15 Winning Percentage when moving his runners from turf to dirt.
Raja's Rose best career outings have come when she was routing on real dirt. Cheeky Stone flashed some early foot in her two career starts sprinting on the plastic; expect her to be up close early. Mini Candy disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in her debut, when she barley picked up her feet. The fact that Bejarano stays on board is promising, as is her having the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field.
I'll be playing the tickets Crist style, as usual (that is, one ticket uses nothing but the "A" Contenders in each leg; while other tickets use the "A" Contenders in three of the four legs, and the "C" Contenders in the other). If you play the “All A’s” Ticket for a buck, and the three “Three A’s with a C” tickets for fifty cents each, your total cost will be $70.00.
Post time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $32k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Cayanna (ML 8-1)
# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 All On the Table (ML 6-1)
# 9 Creditcardroulette (ML 10-1)
Joeandbetty'sbaby won a Starter Allowance back in October charging down this hill. While the competition will be much tougher today, the Beyer Speed Figure that she earned that day should get the job done today. Joeandbetty'sbaby also has a late running style which should serve her quite well against this field. Bejarano, who was on board for that October victory, will be in the saddle again today.
Cayanna just missed at this level over this surface her last time out. But that was back in February; and Cayanna's trainer, Doug O'Neill (who also trains Joeandbetty'sbaby) does not have a good record with runners returning from a vacation of greater than six months. However, I think Cayanna can be competitive against this field even if she doesn't fire her best shot.
As I'm taking a stand against the front runners in this event, All On the Table is one that would normally get tossed as well. But her blinkers are coming off for this one, and she has shown the ability to rate in the past. All On the Table isn't the best horse in this field (in my opinion), or even one of the three best horses in this field; but if she can be kept out the early pace battle that I believe will define this race, then the potential for upset is definitely here. For that same reason I'll be adding Creditcardroulette to the mix; the late running style just might carry the day.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Fashion Plate (ML 7-2)
# 8 Beverly the Boss (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Had she not scratched, I would have used # 2 Star Sighting (ML 3-1) as an "A" Contender as well.
Fashion Plate took a big step forward last time out in her second career start, taking the Show at this level earlier this month at Hollywood Park. If her form carries over from the cushion track to real dirt (and, based upon her bullet works over this track back in November, there's no reason why it shouldn't) Fashion Plate should join the ranks of winners today.
Beverly the Boss is by a sire whose progeny win over 20% of the time their first time out. Beverly the Boss is also trained by Peter Miller, who has a .23 Winning Percentage with first time starters. If Fashion Plate should fail to fire, Beverly the Boss strikes me as the logical choice to get her picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 8 - (F) The Robert J Frankel (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Stormy Lucy (ML 9-2)
# 7 Customer Base (ML 3-1)
# 9 Appealing (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Playful Humor (ML 15-1)
# 3 Moone's My Name (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Gulsary (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Champagneandcaviar (ML 10-1)
Stormy Lucy won by four two starts back over multiple Graded Stakes winner (and odds-on favorite) Halo Dolly. Appealing (Ire) just missed by a head taking the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, finishing in front of (among others) Customer Base. However, it was Customer Base crossing the wire ahead of Appealing in the Grade 2 Goldikova in their last contest. No doubt all three "A" Contenders will be grateful that they won't be facing Egg Drop yet again.
It took Playful Humor ten starts to finally break her maiden; but once she figured out that she wasn't entered in races just to have an afternoon jog with her friends she has performed quite nicely, winning three of her last four. This will be a big step up the class ladder for Playful Humor, but Trainer Neil Drysdale is no stranger to winning Graded Stakes at nice prices. Note that Playful Humor has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
While still one to be reckoned with, I don't see Moone's My Name (GB) getting the nice easy lead today that she got while wiring the field her last time out. Gulsary (ML 4-1) is the other half of an uncoupled entry with Customer Base, as both are owned by Glen Hill Farm and trained by Thomas Proctor.
Champagneandcaviar is the only entrant in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass, which she did two starts back over this turf course at Final Odds of 57-1.
I don't see any clear standout in this field, as none of the entrants show a Graded Stakes win in their recent (ten race) form. The three "A" Contenders all show efforts in their last two races which, if repeated, should bring them victory today. But in my opinion this is a wide open affair, and one in which I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Grammy Times Six (ML 4-1)
# 8 Impeccably (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Raja's Rose (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cheeky Stone (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mini Candy (ML 4-1)
Grammy Times Six gets some much need class relief. She's shown speed in each of her two career starts, and draws the rail today. Impeccably goes for a conditioner (Adam Kitchingman) who gets 21% winners out of Maiden Claimers, to go along with a .15 Winning Percentage when moving his runners from turf to dirt.
Raja's Rose best career outings have come when she was routing on real dirt. Cheeky Stone flashed some early foot in her two career starts sprinting on the plastic; expect her to be up close early. Mini Candy disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in her debut, when she barley picked up her feet. The fact that Bejarano stays on board is promising, as is her having the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field.
I'll be playing the tickets Crist style, as usual (that is, one ticket uses nothing but the "A" Contenders in each leg; while other tickets use the "A" Contenders in three of the four legs, and the "C" Contenders in the other). If you play the “All A’s” Ticket for a buck, and the three “Three A’s with a C” tickets for fifty cents each, your total cost will be $70.00.
Post time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
12/22/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 8 Koukla (Final Odds 1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Ashley's Bambino (8.90) - No Selection
Race 10 - The King Glorious - # 8 California Chrome (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Woodmans Luck (5.80) - "C" Selection
We couldn't have asked for a better start to the sequence, as our single "A" in the opening leg, Koukla, won her debut by over two lengths over # 7 Gouyen (5.10) who in turn was five lengths clear for Place. But it all came apart in the next leg, as Jockey Rafael Bejarano wrapped up the last ever riding title at Hollywood Park with his fourth winner on the day by bringing home Ashley's Bambino. California Chrome won the last ever stakes at Hollywood Park by over a half dozen lengths, while the final finale at BHP / HOL went to Woodmans Luck, who won the photo over # 11 Depreciable (4.40).
So not one of our better efforts, as we only got one "A" selection to cross the wire ahead of the rest of the field; which means that our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $60.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $751.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDITED to add the video of the Hollywood Park finale.
Race 9 - # 8 Ashley's Bambino (8.90) - No Selection
Race 10 - The King Glorious - # 8 California Chrome (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Woodmans Luck (5.80) - "C" Selection
We couldn't have asked for a better start to the sequence, as our single "A" in the opening leg, Koukla, won her debut by over two lengths over # 7 Gouyen (5.10) who in turn was five lengths clear for Place. But it all came apart in the next leg, as Jockey Rafael Bejarano wrapped up the last ever riding title at Hollywood Park with his fourth winner on the day by bringing home Ashley's Bambino. California Chrome won the last ever stakes at Hollywood Park by over a half dozen lengths, while the final finale at BHP / HOL went to Woodmans Luck, who won the photo over # 11 Depreciable (4.40).
So not one of our better efforts, as we only got one "A" selection to cross the wire ahead of the rest of the field; which means that our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $60.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $751.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDITED to add the video of the Hollywood Park finale.
12/22/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview
And so we reach the end; the final day of racing for Hollywood Park. I really don't have anything to say here; since I've never been to Hollywood Park myself, I have no personal memories of the place that I can share. Rather, I'll just defer to others, much more eloquent than myself, to express what Hollywood Park has meant to them through the years. So we'll just move on, keeping in mind that change is inevitable, except from a vending machine; and with that, offer our thoughts on the final Hollywood Park Pick Four.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Koukla (Morning Line 3-1)
C's
# 4 Steal the Lute (ML 7-2)
# 6 Zensational Beauty (ML 5-2)
I wasn't impressed with any of the three experienced runners in this field, as I feel that each would need to make a big step forward in order to win. Koukla, Steal the Lute, and Zensational Beauty are trained by (respectively) John Sadler, Bob Baffert, and Peter Miller. All three trainers are top notch at having their runners ready to roll at first asking. I gave Koukla the nod over the other two on the basis of her sire, Northern Afleet.
RACE 9 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Pulpit's Express (ML 9-5)
# 7 Wings of Mojave (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Full Instinct (ML 7-2)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)
I gave a lot of thought to singling Pulpit's Express here; but Trainer John Sadler has just a 10% Winning Percentage with runners returning from a two-to-six month vacation, so I thought it more prudent to spread. Wings of Mojave made a nice move forward in his last start, and Trainer Vann Belvoir does well in spotting his returning victors. Full Instinct is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, and could be the speed of the speed here; while Volkonsky could be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace should totally collapse.
RACE 10 - [S] The King Glorious $200K - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pray Hard (ML 4-1)
# 9 Aotearoa (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Alpine Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 California Chrome (ML 3-1)
# 10 Better Bet (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 4 Mass Transit (ML 6-1)
Pray Hard is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who has been winning all the other stakes this meet; it would be fitting for him to win the last one ever over this main track. Aotearoa is probably better suited to the grass; but he does have a win over the synthetic at Del Mar, and he'll certainly appreciate the class relief.
California Chrome has had a couple of troubled trips since winning The Graduation Stakes in July; perhaps he'll do better today. Alpine Luck and Better Bet are a pair of stakes winners trained by Mike Harrington, who knows a thing or two about winning at this level with long shot runners.
RACE 11 - Alw 25000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Moonlit Meteor (ML 8-1)
# 9 Danderek (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Depreciable (ML 7-2)
# 12 Insideondoutside (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Anythingscookin (ML 8-1)
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 6-1)
# 6 Soul Candy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Mr. Candy Bar (ML 8-1)
Had he drawn in, I would have really liked # 13 No Contingency (ML 8-1) here.
Danderek (GB), Depreciable, and Insideondoutside have all defeated open claimers in one of their last two races on the grass at a distance equal to or within a half furlong of today's event. Moonlit Meteor is a lightly raced horse with a victory over this turf course; he could take another step forward today.
Anythingscookin could steal this one on the front end. Woodmans Luck fits the class level, but is winless on the turf; note that Trainer Vladimir Cerin has a positive ROI when moving his runners from plastic to grass. Soul Candy has a win in four tries over this turf course, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Mr. Candy Bar has earned Beyer Speed Figures of late that could win against this field, though he seems to be rather reluctant to cross the wire first when the opportunity presents itself.
Rather than list all the tickets here (as has been my custom) I'll just state that I'll be playing this in my normal fashion, Steve Crist style. Play a ticket for one dollar with all the "A" contenders; that should cost you $16.00. Then play four tickets for fifty cents using the "A" contenders in three of the four legs and the "C" contenders in the other; those should cost you $44.00; making the Total Cost of our Pick Four Play today $60.00.
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:05 EST / 4:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Koukla (Morning Line 3-1)
C's
# 4 Steal the Lute (ML 7-2)
# 6 Zensational Beauty (ML 5-2)
I wasn't impressed with any of the three experienced runners in this field, as I feel that each would need to make a big step forward in order to win. Koukla, Steal the Lute, and Zensational Beauty are trained by (respectively) John Sadler, Bob Baffert, and Peter Miller. All three trainers are top notch at having their runners ready to roll at first asking. I gave Koukla the nod over the other two on the basis of her sire, Northern Afleet.
RACE 9 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Pulpit's Express (ML 9-5)
# 7 Wings of Mojave (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Full Instinct (ML 7-2)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)
I gave a lot of thought to singling Pulpit's Express here; but Trainer John Sadler has just a 10% Winning Percentage with runners returning from a two-to-six month vacation, so I thought it more prudent to spread. Wings of Mojave made a nice move forward in his last start, and Trainer Vann Belvoir does well in spotting his returning victors. Full Instinct is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, and could be the speed of the speed here; while Volkonsky could be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace should totally collapse.
RACE 10 - [S] The King Glorious $200K - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pray Hard (ML 4-1)
# 9 Aotearoa (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Alpine Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 California Chrome (ML 3-1)
# 10 Better Bet (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 4 Mass Transit (ML 6-1)
Pray Hard is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who has been winning all the other stakes this meet; it would be fitting for him to win the last one ever over this main track. Aotearoa is probably better suited to the grass; but he does have a win over the synthetic at Del Mar, and he'll certainly appreciate the class relief.
California Chrome has had a couple of troubled trips since winning The Graduation Stakes in July; perhaps he'll do better today. Alpine Luck and Better Bet are a pair of stakes winners trained by Mike Harrington, who knows a thing or two about winning at this level with long shot runners.
RACE 11 - Alw 25000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Moonlit Meteor (ML 8-1)
# 9 Danderek (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Depreciable (ML 7-2)
# 12 Insideondoutside (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Anythingscookin (ML 8-1)
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 6-1)
# 6 Soul Candy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Mr. Candy Bar (ML 8-1)
Had he drawn in, I would have really liked # 13 No Contingency (ML 8-1) here.
Danderek (GB), Depreciable, and Insideondoutside have all defeated open claimers in one of their last two races on the grass at a distance equal to or within a half furlong of today's event. Moonlit Meteor is a lightly raced horse with a victory over this turf course; he could take another step forward today.
Anythingscookin could steal this one on the front end. Woodmans Luck fits the class level, but is winless on the turf; note that Trainer Vladimir Cerin has a positive ROI when moving his runners from plastic to grass. Soul Candy has a win in four tries over this turf course, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Mr. Candy Bar has earned Beyer Speed Figures of late that could win against this field, though he seems to be rather reluctant to cross the wire first when the opportunity presents itself.
Rather than list all the tickets here (as has been my custom) I'll just state that I'll be playing this in my normal fashion, Steve Crist style. Play a ticket for one dollar with all the "A" contenders; that should cost you $16.00. Then play four tickets for fifty cents using the "A" contenders in three of the four legs and the "C" contenders in the other; those should cost you $44.00; making the Total Cost of our Pick Four Play today $60.00.
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:05 EST / 4:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Santa Anita reduces the number of Daily Doubles on its card
Quoting from the article at Brisnet.com:
The Daily Double, first offered by Santa Anita in 1961, is a $2 minimum bet that requires players to select the winners of two consecutive races. Santa Anita, which runs through June 29, will offer three Daily Doubles on three separate occasions each day --races one and two; four and five; and on the final two races.
"After consulting with many of our best customers and the TOC, we felt it was time to make some 'player-friendly' adjustments to this iconic wager," said Tom Ludt, Santa Anita Senior Vice President, Racing and Gaming."...by offering three Doubles per day, we're confident we're going to see a significant increase in pool sizes and that is going to result in bigger payoffs -- which is why the vast majority of our customers come out to the races."
First things first: if you are one of the "best customers" of Santa Anita Park that suggested these changes to Tom Ludt, please allow me to:
1) Thank you for reading this blog;
2) Call you an idiot
Anyone who thinks that reducing the number of Daily Doubles available on a typical ten race card from nine down to three will result in an increased total Double handle, coupled with larger payouts, is delusional. If you read the Hollywood Park results from last Sunday on this blog, you saw that the Double that paid $1,636 for a two dollar wager came out of a total pool of $19,974, while the Double pool with $103,189 produced a $7.40 payout. So much for larger pools automatically equaling higher payouts. And I may be proven wrong, but I don't see how three Double pools on the card will pull in more wagering dollars than nine Double pools.
And don't even get me started on the track's insistence on keeping the minimum wager at two dollars. Santa Anita's refusal to lower its minimum bet makes sense only when you recall that these are the same people who for years clung to a $5 minimum wager on the Exacta in an effort to price small customers out of the game. During that time Cliff Goodrich, then president of Santa Anita, was quoted as saying, "We're trying to save the customers from themselves." Apparently, that philosophy still holds sway in Southern California.
Well, if their goal is to price this small customer out of playing their racetrack, this is certainly a step in the right direction. Now if I could just figure out a way to get NYRA and Gulfstream Park to move their respective first race Post Times to three hours later in the afternoon.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Daily Double, first offered by Santa Anita in 1961, is a $2 minimum bet that requires players to select the winners of two consecutive races. Santa Anita, which runs through June 29, will offer three Daily Doubles on three separate occasions each day --races one and two; four and five; and on the final two races.
"After consulting with many of our best customers and the TOC, we felt it was time to make some 'player-friendly' adjustments to this iconic wager," said Tom Ludt, Santa Anita Senior Vice President, Racing and Gaming."...by offering three Doubles per day, we're confident we're going to see a significant increase in pool sizes and that is going to result in bigger payoffs -- which is why the vast majority of our customers come out to the races."
First things first: if you are one of the "best customers" of Santa Anita Park that suggested these changes to Tom Ludt, please allow me to:
1) Thank you for reading this blog;
2) Call you an idiot
Anyone who thinks that reducing the number of Daily Doubles available on a typical ten race card from nine down to three will result in an increased total Double handle, coupled with larger payouts, is delusional. If you read the Hollywood Park results from last Sunday on this blog, you saw that the Double that paid $1,636 for a two dollar wager came out of a total pool of $19,974, while the Double pool with $103,189 produced a $7.40 payout. So much for larger pools automatically equaling higher payouts. And I may be proven wrong, but I don't see how three Double pools on the card will pull in more wagering dollars than nine Double pools.
And don't even get me started on the track's insistence on keeping the minimum wager at two dollars. Santa Anita's refusal to lower its minimum bet makes sense only when you recall that these are the same people who for years clung to a $5 minimum wager on the Exacta in an effort to price small customers out of the game. During that time Cliff Goodrich, then president of Santa Anita, was quoted as saying, "We're trying to save the customers from themselves." Apparently, that philosophy still holds sway in Southern California.
Well, if their goal is to price this small customer out of playing their racetrack, this is certainly a step in the right direction. Now if I could just figure out a way to get NYRA and Gulfstream Park to move their respective first race Post Times to three hours later in the afternoon.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 15, 2013
12/15/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Teasing Moment (Final Odds 15.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Sweetest Secret (54.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Playa Del Rey - # 2 Teddy's Promise (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Bourne Hot (1.40*) - "A" Selection
The Race 6 - Race 7 Double of Teasing Moment and Sweetest Secret paid $1,636 for a deuce (out of a total pool of $19,974). While I might be able to delude myself into thinking that I could have had one of those horses on my tickets, the only way that I could have had both horses would have been if I had bought both races, or if I had just automatically played all horses that were making the equipment change to Blinkers On. Incidentally, whatever Horsesanddivorces was running on today, it might be a good idea to give her less of it the next time.
As chaotic as Races 6 and 7 were, that's how formful Races 8 and 9 were, with the two Post Time Favorites winning clear and joining together for a $2 Double that paid $7.40 (out of a total pool of $103,189). But for us that was too little too late, as our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $56.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $1,467.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Sweetest Secret (54.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Playa Del Rey - # 2 Teddy's Promise (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Bourne Hot (1.40*) - "A" Selection
The Race 6 - Race 7 Double of Teasing Moment and Sweetest Secret paid $1,636 for a deuce (out of a total pool of $19,974). While I might be able to delude myself into thinking that I could have had one of those horses on my tickets, the only way that I could have had both horses would have been if I had bought both races, or if I had just automatically played all horses that were making the equipment change to Blinkers On. Incidentally, whatever Horsesanddivorces was running on today, it might be a good idea to give her less of it the next time.
As chaotic as Races 6 and 7 were, that's how formful Races 8 and 9 were, with the two Post Time Favorites winning clear and joining together for a $2 Double that paid $7.40 (out of a total pool of $103,189). But for us that was too little too late, as our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $56.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $1,467.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/15/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview
We're getting close to the finish line for Hollywood Park, as we're just a week away from the final Sunday of thoroughbred racing at the Inglewood, California racetrack. No time for sentimentality now, however, as we turn our attention to today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k- Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amina Perfect (Morning Line 8-1)
# 6 Sugar High Kaylin (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rich in Tradition (ML 5-1)
# 5 Full of Spice (ML 8-1)
# 10 Bab's Rules (ML 9-2)
# 12 Blazing Dancer (ML 20-1)
The two horses I liked best in this field were the Also Eligibles (Graduator and Circular Logic) neither of whom drew in. Amina Perfect is a first time starter in a field without a legitimate star. Sugar High Kaylin just missed by a length at this level last time out; but as she runs for a trainer (Doug O'Neill) who usually has his horses ready to go at first asking, she may not show much improvement today. Then again, against this field, she may not need to.
Rich in Tradition is oh-for-nineteen. That would generally be an automatic toss, but the new rider coupled with the weak field suggests that she may win by default. Toss out Full of Spice's last effort; Trainer Peter Miller took her blinkers off and Full of Spice took that as a sign that she was just out for a jog. The blinkers go back on today.
Bab's Rules and Blazing Dancer are both making the big drop from MSW (State Bred Division) to Maiden Claiming; the fact that neither could be bothered to pick up their feet in their prior efforts is what keeps them as "C" contenders rather than "A's".
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Horsesanddivorces (ML 3-1)
# 7 Real Bright Boots (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Akiss Forarose (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kilted Tilt (Ire) (ML 4-1)
In a field of eight horses with just one career victory each, Horsesanddivorces is the only entrant to have their one career win come over this Hollywood Park turf course. Not sure if she was injured in her last contest; the bullet work on the dirt at Santa Anita would suggest that she's in shape, but note that this is just the second time in her career that Horsesanddivorces is competing with a price tag on her head.
Real Bright Boots looks to be the controlling speed here; maybe today Jockey Rafael Bejarano can get her to hold onto the lead until the wire. Akiss Forarose seems to have gotten too comfortable with in-the-money finishes; perhaps the turnback in distance will allow Jockey Corey Nakatani to get her to cross the wire first before she realizes that she's won. Kilted Tilt (Ire) is a question mark as she may have just needed that last race, or she may be still be injured. The bullet work over the main track on 12/9 suggests that she's ready to roll; but note that she also had a sharp work on 11/4 before finishing up the track in her start three days later.
RACE 8 - (F) The Playa Del Rey $100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5)
# 3 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rumor (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 There Is No Limit (ML 8-1)
Teddy's Promise and Rumor represent the class of the field. Teddy's Promise is more of a horse for the course than Rumor (five-for-eleven lifetime over this main track vs one-for-three for Rumor) while Rumor has had more success at today's distance (three-for-four in her career vs one-for-five for Teddy's Promise).
Judy In Disguise (GB) makes her debut on the Hollywood Park main track; she's one-for-two on synthetic surfaces elsewhere. There Is No Limit is four-for-five in her career on this Hollywood main track, while being five-for-eight in her career at today's distance. Granted, all that has come against weaker; but There Is No Limit looks to be a horse on the improve, and her Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she belongs against this field.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Bourne Hot (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Argentine (ML 20-1)
# 4 Home Run Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 8 Geldautomat (ML 6-1)
# 10 Closet E (ML 5-1)
Bourne Hot, trained by Doug O'Neil, took a nice step forward his last time out in his first career turf sprint, leading most of the way before being passed by Global View, winner of last month's Grade 3 Generous Stakes; a repeat of that effort should give Bourne Hot his first win today.
Argentine is a first time starter from a sire whose progeny do quite well at first asking. Likewise for Home Run Kitten, who was sired by Kitten's Joy. Geldautomat disappointed as the Post Time Favorite his last time out; he should appreciate the extra furlong of real estate that he gets to run over today. Closet E is the other Doug O'Neil entrant, making his first start for the O'Neil barn after being claimed his last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 5, 10, 12
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 2, 8
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $6.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $2.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 10
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $56.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k- Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amina Perfect (Morning Line 8-1)
# 6 Sugar High Kaylin (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rich in Tradition (ML 5-1)
# 5 Full of Spice (ML 8-1)
# 10 Bab's Rules (ML 9-2)
# 12 Blazing Dancer (ML 20-1)
The two horses I liked best in this field were the Also Eligibles (Graduator and Circular Logic) neither of whom drew in. Amina Perfect is a first time starter in a field without a legitimate star. Sugar High Kaylin just missed by a length at this level last time out; but as she runs for a trainer (Doug O'Neill) who usually has his horses ready to go at first asking, she may not show much improvement today. Then again, against this field, she may not need to.
Rich in Tradition is oh-for-nineteen. That would generally be an automatic toss, but the new rider coupled with the weak field suggests that she may win by default. Toss out Full of Spice's last effort; Trainer Peter Miller took her blinkers off and Full of Spice took that as a sign that she was just out for a jog. The blinkers go back on today.
Bab's Rules and Blazing Dancer are both making the big drop from MSW (State Bred Division) to Maiden Claiming; the fact that neither could be bothered to pick up their feet in their prior efforts is what keeps them as "C" contenders rather than "A's".
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Horsesanddivorces (ML 3-1)
# 7 Real Bright Boots (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Akiss Forarose (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kilted Tilt (Ire) (ML 4-1)
In a field of eight horses with just one career victory each, Horsesanddivorces is the only entrant to have their one career win come over this Hollywood Park turf course. Not sure if she was injured in her last contest; the bullet work on the dirt at Santa Anita would suggest that she's in shape, but note that this is just the second time in her career that Horsesanddivorces is competing with a price tag on her head.
Real Bright Boots looks to be the controlling speed here; maybe today Jockey Rafael Bejarano can get her to hold onto the lead until the wire. Akiss Forarose seems to have gotten too comfortable with in-the-money finishes; perhaps the turnback in distance will allow Jockey Corey Nakatani to get her to cross the wire first before she realizes that she's won. Kilted Tilt (Ire) is a question mark as she may have just needed that last race, or she may be still be injured. The bullet work over the main track on 12/9 suggests that she's ready to roll; but note that she also had a sharp work on 11/4 before finishing up the track in her start three days later.
RACE 8 - (F) The Playa Del Rey $100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5)
# 3 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rumor (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 There Is No Limit (ML 8-1)
Teddy's Promise and Rumor represent the class of the field. Teddy's Promise is more of a horse for the course than Rumor (five-for-eleven lifetime over this main track vs one-for-three for Rumor) while Rumor has had more success at today's distance (three-for-four in her career vs one-for-five for Teddy's Promise).
Judy In Disguise (GB) makes her debut on the Hollywood Park main track; she's one-for-two on synthetic surfaces elsewhere. There Is No Limit is four-for-five in her career on this Hollywood main track, while being five-for-eight in her career at today's distance. Granted, all that has come against weaker; but There Is No Limit looks to be a horse on the improve, and her Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she belongs against this field.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Bourne Hot (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Argentine (ML 20-1)
# 4 Home Run Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 8 Geldautomat (ML 6-1)
# 10 Closet E (ML 5-1)
Bourne Hot, trained by Doug O'Neil, took a nice step forward his last time out in his first career turf sprint, leading most of the way before being passed by Global View, winner of last month's Grade 3 Generous Stakes; a repeat of that effort should give Bourne Hot his first win today.
Argentine is a first time starter from a sire whose progeny do quite well at first asking. Likewise for Home Run Kitten, who was sired by Kitten's Joy. Geldautomat disappointed as the Post Time Favorite his last time out; he should appreciate the extra furlong of real estate that he gets to run over today. Closet E is the other Doug O'Neil entrant, making his first start for the O'Neil barn after being claimed his last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 5, 10, 12
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 2, 8
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $6.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $2.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 10
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $56.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 14, 2013
12/14/13 BHP R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following, made his way down state Saturday to compete in Race 4 at Hollywood Park. The contest, run at a distance of six and a half furlongs over the plastic main track, was a Starter Allowance with the following conditions:
For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2013 And Have Not Won Two Races Since August 15, 2013.
So this was a step up the class ladder for City Chapel from the conditioned claimers against which he had competed in his last couple of races; and that's before factoring in the generally tougher competition found among the thoroughbreds in Southern California when compared to their Northern California brethren. Still, City Chapel (Final Odds 36.20) did not embarrass himself, racing mid-pack throughout; in fact, City Chapel finished fifth, right smack in the middle of the nine horse field.
For his efforts, City Chapel's fifth place finish earns $500 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to $52,515.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2013 And Have Not Won Two Races Since August 15, 2013.
So this was a step up the class ladder for City Chapel from the conditioned claimers against which he had competed in his last couple of races; and that's before factoring in the generally tougher competition found among the thoroughbreds in Southern California when compared to their Northern California brethren. Still, City Chapel (Final Odds 36.20) did not embarrass himself, racing mid-pack throughout; in fact, City Chapel finished fifth, right smack in the middle of the nine horse field.
For his efforts, City Chapel's fifth place finish earns $500 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to $52,515.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 8, 2013
12/8/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 1 Crushed Velvet (Final Odds 1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Amazing Hearted (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 3 Rocked Twice (2.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express - # 1 Boat Trip (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Senza Fina (6.60) - "C" Selection
We singled "A's" in two races (Race 1 and Race 3) who weren't the Morning Line Favorites, and by the Grace of The Almighty they both came through for us. We also got a non-Favorite home in the Hollywood Turf Express, a race that was so tight it featured a Triple Dead Heat for Place. Getting "A"s" safely home in the first four legs left us alive to five horses in the finale. For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the four we were alive to who did not win:
# 2 - Hey Pretty Girl (3.30) - $457.20
# 3 - Yesterday Sings (16.20) - $1483.20
# 4 - Exotic Behavior (1.60*) - $236.60
# 5 - Perched (2.90) - $304.80
Senza Fina is the horse that we were alive to that did win, completing the correct Pick Five sequence of 1 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 6 which paid out $686.85 for a fifty cent wager, thus giving us a Net Profit for our play of $618.85. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 3 Amazing Hearted (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 3 Rocked Twice (2.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express - # 1 Boat Trip (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Senza Fina (6.60) - "C" Selection
We singled "A's" in two races (Race 1 and Race 3) who weren't the Morning Line Favorites, and by the Grace of The Almighty they both came through for us. We also got a non-Favorite home in the Hollywood Turf Express, a race that was so tight it featured a Triple Dead Heat for Place. Getting "A"s" safely home in the first four legs left us alive to five horses in the finale. For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the four we were alive to who did not win:
# 2 - Hey Pretty Girl (3.30) - $457.20
# 3 - Yesterday Sings (16.20) - $1483.20
# 4 - Exotic Behavior (1.60*) - $236.60
# 5 - Perched (2.90) - $304.80
Senza Fina is the horse that we were alive to that did win, completing the correct Pick Five sequence of 1 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 6 which paid out $686.85 for a fifty cent wager, thus giving us a Net Profit for our play of $618.85. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/8/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
We turn our attention to the left coast today, as we take a run at Sunday's Pick Five at Hollywood Park. All five races are sprints, and three of the five are for two year olds.
RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Crushed Velvet (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Lady Bugatti (ML 4-1)
# 3 Artemis (ML 2-1)
Artemis ran well in her debut last month, taking the show after a poor start. Normally she would be a solid “A” contender. But Artemis is trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, and, typically, Hollendorfer has his charges ready to roll first time out; so if they don’t win their debut, they tend not to win at second asking.
Crushed Velvet (trained by Bob Baffert) is making her debut and draws the rail; generally speaking, this is not a good combination. Factor in that the rail has not fared well in sprints during this final Hollywood Park meet and our decision to make Crushed Velvet a single “A” contender looks, well, rather odd. But Jockey Martin Garcia has been hot this meet, and just yesterday, in Race 2 over this track, Garcia brought home a Baffert trained two year old making his debut from the rail in a six furlong sprint. So here’s hoping that the Garcia/Baffert duo can do it again today.
RACE 2 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amazing Hearted (ML 5-2)
# 6 Charlie’sboywins (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
# 5 First Strike (ML 7-2)
Charlie’sboywins has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and it was earned over this main track at a distance of six and a half furlongs against N2X Optional Claimers. I personally think that Charlie’sboywins is an excellent play in the Win Pool in this event, though I suspect that he won’t go off at odds quite so generous as his 6-1 Morning Line.
Amazing Hearted broke his maiden in his debut over this main track, and then won at today’s level in his next contest. The step back in his last race could be a concern; for while the rise in class offers a reasonable excuse, we are talking about a five year old gelding with only three lifetime races, suggesting that he’s no stranger to health issues. But if Amazing Hearted can run back to his effort two starts back he’ll get his picture taken once again.
Carbonite is three-for-five in his career over this main track; but this is a step up the class ladder. First Strike has captured the Place three of the five times that Trainer Robertino Diodoro has brought him over from Arizona to Hollywood Park. During the summer Diodoro brought First Strike to Del Mar and watched him win clear against $32k open claimers at odds of 15-2.
RACE 3 - Md $50k- Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rocked Twice (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Fulmerized (ML 2-1)
EDIT - # 4 Smiley Eagle (ML 5-1) has been scratched from today’s race.
Rocked Start is making her third career start, but first against maiden company. Rocked Twice has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance, and Trainer Kory Owens does quite well when shipping horses in from Arizona. Rocked Twice’s grandsire is In Excess (Ire) which suggests that the synthetic surface should not prevent any difficulties.
# 2 Fulmerized should be quick out of the gate, especially with the addition of blinkers. But Fulmerized’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, does not do well with maidens making their second start.
RACE 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express $100k - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
# 2 No Silent (ML 3-1)
# 3 Chips All In (ML 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled’s Note (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are the class of the field, as they each have career earnings on grass of over $300k. Boat Trip and No Silent are the local heros, as they each sport career records of three wins in four tries over the Hollywood Park turf course, while Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are a combined oh-for-one over the same surface. This one looks very competitive on paper; we’ll see how it plays out at the track.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k- Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 5-1)
# 4 Exotic Behavior (ML 9-5)
# 5 Perched (2-1)
C’s
# 3 Yesterday Sings (ML 10-1)
# 6 Senza Fina (ML 8-1)
Hey Pretty Girl is a first timer going for Hollendorfer who, as previously mentioned, does quite well with those. Exotic Behavior (trained by Bob Baffert) and Perched (trained by Doug O’Neill) are both competing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Senza Fina is another making the big drop from MSW to Md Clm; however, unlike Exotic Behavior and Perched, Senza Fina was unable to finish in the money against the non-claimers. Yesterday Sings was a tough cut from the “A” contender ranks to the “C” level; I expect to put a few bucks on her nose in the Win Pool just in case, especially if I should still be alive going into this final leg and she’s in a position to blow up my tickets.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing all tickets today for fifty cents. Normally we'll play the all "A's" ticket for a dollar, but as we're using single "A's" in two of the five legs who are not the Morning Line Favorites, I think we'll get a fair enough price should the ticket pay off without having to double up on it. And also note that I'm posting this more than an hour before first post; so if there are any key scratches, the below will likely be changed. So with all that, here's how today's tickets look:
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $24.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 2
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 3, 6
Cost: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $68.00
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park Sunday is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Crushed Velvet (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Lady Bugatti (ML 4-1)
# 3 Artemis (ML 2-1)
Artemis ran well in her debut last month, taking the show after a poor start. Normally she would be a solid “A” contender. But Artemis is trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, and, typically, Hollendorfer has his charges ready to roll first time out; so if they don’t win their debut, they tend not to win at second asking.
Crushed Velvet (trained by Bob Baffert) is making her debut and draws the rail; generally speaking, this is not a good combination. Factor in that the rail has not fared well in sprints during this final Hollywood Park meet and our decision to make Crushed Velvet a single “A” contender looks, well, rather odd. But Jockey Martin Garcia has been hot this meet, and just yesterday, in Race 2 over this track, Garcia brought home a Baffert trained two year old making his debut from the rail in a six furlong sprint. So here’s hoping that the Garcia/Baffert duo can do it again today.
RACE 2 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amazing Hearted (ML 5-2)
# 6 Charlie’sboywins (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
# 5 First Strike (ML 7-2)
Charlie’sboywins has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and it was earned over this main track at a distance of six and a half furlongs against N2X Optional Claimers. I personally think that Charlie’sboywins is an excellent play in the Win Pool in this event, though I suspect that he won’t go off at odds quite so generous as his 6-1 Morning Line.
Amazing Hearted broke his maiden in his debut over this main track, and then won at today’s level in his next contest. The step back in his last race could be a concern; for while the rise in class offers a reasonable excuse, we are talking about a five year old gelding with only three lifetime races, suggesting that he’s no stranger to health issues. But if Amazing Hearted can run back to his effort two starts back he’ll get his picture taken once again.
Carbonite is three-for-five in his career over this main track; but this is a step up the class ladder. First Strike has captured the Place three of the five times that Trainer Robertino Diodoro has brought him over from Arizona to Hollywood Park. During the summer Diodoro brought First Strike to Del Mar and watched him win clear against $32k open claimers at odds of 15-2.
RACE 3 - Md $50k- Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rocked Twice (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Fulmerized (ML 2-1)
EDIT - # 4 Smiley Eagle (ML 5-1) has been scratched from today’s race.
Rocked Start is making her third career start, but first against maiden company. Rocked Twice has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance, and Trainer Kory Owens does quite well when shipping horses in from Arizona. Rocked Twice’s grandsire is In Excess (Ire) which suggests that the synthetic surface should not prevent any difficulties.
# 2 Fulmerized should be quick out of the gate, especially with the addition of blinkers. But Fulmerized’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, does not do well with maidens making their second start.
RACE 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express $100k - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
# 2 No Silent (ML 3-1)
# 3 Chips All In (ML 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled’s Note (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are the class of the field, as they each have career earnings on grass of over $300k. Boat Trip and No Silent are the local heros, as they each sport career records of three wins in four tries over the Hollywood Park turf course, while Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are a combined oh-for-one over the same surface. This one looks very competitive on paper; we’ll see how it plays out at the track.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k- Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 5-1)
# 4 Exotic Behavior (ML 9-5)
# 5 Perched (2-1)
C’s
# 3 Yesterday Sings (ML 10-1)
# 6 Senza Fina (ML 8-1)
Hey Pretty Girl is a first timer going for Hollendorfer who, as previously mentioned, does quite well with those. Exotic Behavior (trained by Bob Baffert) and Perched (trained by Doug O’Neill) are both competing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Senza Fina is another making the big drop from MSW to Md Clm; however, unlike Exotic Behavior and Perched, Senza Fina was unable to finish in the money against the non-claimers. Yesterday Sings was a tough cut from the “A” contender ranks to the “C” level; I expect to put a few bucks on her nose in the Win Pool just in case, especially if I should still be alive going into this final leg and she’s in a position to blow up my tickets.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing all tickets today for fifty cents. Normally we'll play the all "A's" ticket for a dollar, but as we're using single "A's" in two of the five legs who are not the Morning Line Favorites, I think we'll get a fair enough price should the ticket pay off without having to double up on it. And also note that I'm posting this more than an hour before first post; so if there are any key scratches, the below will likely be changed. So with all that, here's how today's tickets look:
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $24.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 2
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 3, 6
Cost: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $68.00
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park Sunday is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, December 6, 2013
12/6/13 Hollywood Park Race 7 - Results
And we have a winner!
Dubai You X Y Z (Final Odds (2.00*) stalked the pace in the early going, took the lead with approximately a furlong to go, and won by a length and a quarter, paying $6.00 / $3.40 / $2.80. I hope you all had it with me (and since he got bet down from his 7-2 Morning Line to be the Post Time Favorite, I'm trusting that at least some of you had it with me).
For those interested, a replay of the race may be viewed over at Bloodhorse.com, while the chart of the race may be viewed here (Equibase style) and here (Daily Racing Form format).
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Dubai You X Y Z (Final Odds (2.00*) stalked the pace in the early going, took the lead with approximately a furlong to go, and won by a length and a quarter, paying $6.00 / $3.40 / $2.80. I hope you all had it with me (and since he got bet down from his 7-2 Morning Line to be the Post Time Favorite, I'm trusting that at least some of you had it with me).
For those interested, a replay of the race may be viewed over at Bloodhorse.com, while the chart of the race may be viewed here (Equibase style) and here (Daily Racing Form format).
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/6/13 Hollywood Park Race 7 - Preview
Today’s 7th Race @ Hollywood Park is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances at their website, along with video analysis by a couple of guys who actually know what they're talking about. Due to other obligations I don't expect to be making any multi-race wagers today. However, Hollywood Park’s Race 7 is such a near perfect example of a race being written for a specific horse that I thought it was worth commenting upon here.
The conditions for Race 7 are as follows:
Three year olds and upward:
1) Which have never won $10,000 three times (other than in maiden races, or claiming races, or races restricted to state bred horses); OR
2) Which have never won four races; OR
3) Which have not won a race at a mile or over since May 1, 2012; OR
4) Which will run for a claiming price of $80,000.
OK; last condition first: if you’re willing to risk having your horse purchased for $80k, you can enter your horse in this event. In fact, three of the seven horses entered in this field (# 1 El Commodore (Morning Line 5-2); # 2 Code of Conduct (ML 4-1); and # 4 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 12-1)) will be competing with the $80k price tag on their heads.
But suppose you’re the connections of # 6 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 7-2) (and, by the way, isn’t that a great name for a horse?) and you don’t want to take a chance on having your horse claimed away; then what? Dubai You X Y Z has won five career races, so he doesn’t meet condition number two. Four of his five wins were for more than ten grand in races that don’t meet the exception list in condition number one, so that condition is a no go.
So what about condition number three? Well, as it turns out, the last time Dubai You X Y Z won a race at a distance of a mile or longer was on April 27, 2012; just a few days before the May 1, 2012 cutoff. Pretty convenient, huh?
Obviously, race conditions don’t write themselves. They’re drawn up by the track’s racing secretary, in consultation with the other track officials. So it’s a pretty safe bet that the May 1, 2012 date wasn’t just picked at random, but rather was chosen in order to give the connections of Dubai You X Y Z an event that they could enter their horse in that was neither a stakes nor one where the horse could be claimed. And there’s nothing nefarious nor underhanded about it; it is, in fact, the racing secretary’s job to ensure that all horses on the grounds have at least one race every few weeks that they are eligible to enter.
Also keep in mind that the fact that the racing secretary has written a race specifically with Dubai You X Y Z in mind is no guarantee that the horse will win. This is a pretty competitive field, and it contains at least a couple of Graded Stakes placed entrants. But I personally like his chances against this field, and I expect to have a few bucks on Dubai You X Y Z’s nose at Post Time (which, incidentally, is 6:33 EST / 3:33 PST).
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1 Closes
This post is really more of a reference point, as I don't have any analysis to offer here; and, besides, as you can see in the title, the pool is already closed. The main reason for me putting this here is that I put a few dollars on the field (# 24) so it will be nice to be able to have this post as a reminder of which horses aren't part of that field. I also put a couple of bucks on # 19 Rise Up, son of the late Rockport Harbor, because sometimes my heart overrules my head.
Anyway, a full article on Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager is available on Drf.com. The closing odds and two dollar Win will-pays for each Pool 1 entrant is below. You're on your own finding the will-pays for the Pool 1 Exacta wagers.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds
(No., Horse, Closing odds, $2 win will-pay)
1. Almost Famous, 30-1, $62.80
2. Bobby’s Kitten, 28-1, $58.80
3. Bondholder, 40-1, $82.80
4. Cairo Prince, 26-1, $55.60
5. Cleburne, 62-1, $126
6. Commissioner, 33-1, $69.80
7. Coup de Grace, 48-1, $99.20
8. Financial Mogul, 225-1, $453.40
9. Havana, 26-1, $54.20
10. Honor Code, 10-1, $22.80
11. In Trouble, 53-1, $109.80
12. Kobe’s Back, 84-1, $171.20
13. Mexikoma, 40-1, $82.80
14. Misconnect, 43-1, $88.80
15. New Year’s Day, 15-1, $32.40
16. Noble Moon, 63-1, $129.40
17. Pablo Del Monte, 59-1, $121.60
18. Ride On Curlin, 57-1, $117.40
19. Rise Up, 50-1, $102.80
20. Shared Belief, 32-1, $66.20
21. Strong Mandate, 27-1, $57.60
22. Tamarando, 42-1, $86.20
23. Tap It Rich, 45-1, $52.20
24. Mutuel field (all other 2014 3-year-olds), 4-5, $3.60
Combined handle: $273,174
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Anyway, a full article on Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager is available on Drf.com. The closing odds and two dollar Win will-pays for each Pool 1 entrant is below. You're on your own finding the will-pays for the Pool 1 Exacta wagers.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds
(No., Horse, Closing odds, $2 win will-pay)
1. Almost Famous, 30-1, $62.80
2. Bobby’s Kitten, 28-1, $58.80
3. Bondholder, 40-1, $82.80
4. Cairo Prince, 26-1, $55.60
5. Cleburne, 62-1, $126
6. Commissioner, 33-1, $69.80
7. Coup de Grace, 48-1, $99.20
8. Financial Mogul, 225-1, $453.40
9. Havana, 26-1, $54.20
10. Honor Code, 10-1, $22.80
11. In Trouble, 53-1, $109.80
12. Kobe’s Back, 84-1, $171.20
13. Mexikoma, 40-1, $82.80
14. Misconnect, 43-1, $88.80
15. New Year’s Day, 15-1, $32.40
16. Noble Moon, 63-1, $129.40
17. Pablo Del Monte, 59-1, $121.60
18. Ride On Curlin, 57-1, $117.40
19. Rise Up, 50-1, $102.80
20. Shared Belief, 32-1, $66.20
21. Strong Mandate, 27-1, $57.60
22. Tamarando, 42-1, $86.20
23. Tap It Rich, 45-1, $52.20
24. Mutuel field (all other 2014 3-year-olds), 4-5, $3.60
Combined handle: $273,174
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 30, 2013
11/30/13 Aqueduct Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Comely Stakes - # 2 Wedding Toast (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap - # 9 Flat Out (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Remsen Stakes - # 4 Honor Code (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Winning Touch (1.35*) - "A" Selection
Wedding Toast got us off to a good start, using the time honored strategy of running a straight line to defeat the serpentine running # 9 Toasting (32.25) by a head. It was all for naught, however, as we had no part of Flat Out's victory in The Cigar Mile. In the "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due" Department, a tip of the hat to the good people of Brisnet.com, whose Ultimate Past Performances for The Cigar Mile had Flat Out pegged as the top entrant, courtesy of their Prime Power Ratings.
We felt there was little to choose between Honor Code and # 9 Cairo Prince (1.65) and the photo finish that determined the winner justified that opinion (though we must confess to having stated a slight preference for the one that took the Place). Winning Touch's victory in the finale capped off a Pick Four that saw three out of four Post Time Favorites get the job done (for the record, Flat Out was also the only non-Post Time Favorite to win one of Saturday's Pick Six races).
So our Pick Four play nets three winners; which, as you all know, is one winner too few. Still, it would be wrong to say that we came close; for while we only missed having one of the four winners, in the race we missed, we really missed; for despite having six of the ten entrants in The Cigar Mile on our tickets, we didn't have any of the horses that made up that race's Trifecta. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $55.50.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $39.62 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap - # 9 Flat Out (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Remsen Stakes - # 4 Honor Code (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Winning Touch (1.35*) - "A" Selection
Wedding Toast got us off to a good start, using the time honored strategy of running a straight line to defeat the serpentine running # 9 Toasting (32.25) by a head. It was all for naught, however, as we had no part of Flat Out's victory in The Cigar Mile. In the "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due" Department, a tip of the hat to the good people of Brisnet.com, whose Ultimate Past Performances for The Cigar Mile had Flat Out pegged as the top entrant, courtesy of their Prime Power Ratings.
We felt there was little to choose between Honor Code and # 9 Cairo Prince (1.65) and the photo finish that determined the winner justified that opinion (though we must confess to having stated a slight preference for the one that took the Place). Winning Touch's victory in the finale capped off a Pick Four that saw three out of four Post Time Favorites get the job done (for the record, Flat Out was also the only non-Post Time Favorite to win one of Saturday's Pick Six races).
So our Pick Four play nets three winners; which, as you all know, is one winner too few. Still, it would be wrong to say that we came close; for while we only missed having one of the four winners, in the race we missed, we really missed; for despite having six of the ten entrants in The Cigar Mile on our tickets, we didn't have any of the horses that made up that race's Trifecta. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $55.50.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $39.62 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/30/13 Aqueduct Late Pick Four - Preview
It’s Cigar Mile Day Saturday at The Big A in New York City, with a card featuring four Graded Stakes. Three of those four are contained in the Late Pick Four (the final four races on the card) and that’s where we’re going to focus our attention today.
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 29, 2013
11/28/13 GG R6 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the four year old gelding that we've been following since he was claimed by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo for $4,000 back in August 2012, made his twentieth start for the Trujillo barn Thanksgiving Day, in Race 6 at Golden Gate Field. The race, run at a distance of six furlongs over the synthetic main track, was a $20,000 Claiming Race for horses who had not won two races in their entire lifetime, excepting Maiden races, Claiming Races and Starter Races in which the horse competed for $16,000 or less. So while City Chapel has visited the Winners Circle four times in his career, all four of his victories were in races that fall into the exception category, thus making him eligible to compete in Thursday's contest.
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.10) broke fifth in the field of six, was still fifth entering the stretch, but made a late run and took the Show, a length and a half behind the Winner and Post Time Favorite, Tiz Point (0.70*). The third place finish was worth $2,160 in purse money, which brings City Chapel's total earning since being claimed by Trujillo to $52,015. Not too shabby for a $4,000 claim.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.10) broke fifth in the field of six, was still fifth entering the stretch, but made a late run and took the Show, a length and a half behind the Winner and Post Time Favorite, Tiz Point (0.70*). The third place finish was worth $2,160 in purse money, which brings City Chapel's total earning since being claimed by Trujillo to $52,015. Not too shabby for a $4,000 claim.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving
"When asked if my cup is half-full or half-empty my only response is that I am thankful I have a cup."
- Sam Lefkowitz
“One of the very first things I figured out about life is that it’s better to be a grateful person than a grumpy one, because you have to live in the same world either way, and if you’re grateful, you have more fun.”
- Barbara Kingsolver
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
- Sam Lefkowitz
“One of the very first things I figured out about life is that it’s better to be a grateful person than a grumpy one, because you have to live in the same world either way, and if you’re grateful, you have more fun.”
- Barbara Kingsolver
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 24, 2013
11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 6 Dunmore East (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 2 Julio's Gold (2.80*) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Becky Lou (7.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Indianapolis (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Magic Number (4.70*) - "A" Selection
We started well. We ended well. In between we did, well, not so well.
No surprises in the curtain jerker as our two "A" selections formed the Exacta. Julio's Gold just ran everyone off their feet in Race 2, leading the pack from gate to wire despite the class leap from $12.5K N2L to open $16K. While her victory came as a surprise to us it certainly didn't shock the betting public, as they bet this filly (who was fourth choice on the Morning Line in a field of seven) down to the Post Time Favorite.
As expected, Need You Now (Ire) (0.90*) had things all her own way in the early going of Race 3. Unfortunately for us, Need You Now never got comfortable on the lead, setting frantic fractions of 23.70 and 47.00 while leading by eight lengths at the half. Needless to say, she couldn't maintain that pace, and finished out of the money.
Our single "A" in Race 4, Snuggley Bear (5.40) didn't win but made us proud, taking the Place just a length behind one of Baffert's first time starters. We ended the sequence as we started, with one of our two "A" selections winning Race 5.
As you all already know, starting well and ending well doesn't get it done; you need to hit on every note to cash on multi-race plays. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $80.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,119.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 2 Julio's Gold (2.80*) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Becky Lou (7.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Indianapolis (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Magic Number (4.70*) - "A" Selection
We started well. We ended well. In between we did, well, not so well.
No surprises in the curtain jerker as our two "A" selections formed the Exacta. Julio's Gold just ran everyone off their feet in Race 2, leading the pack from gate to wire despite the class leap from $12.5K N2L to open $16K. While her victory came as a surprise to us it certainly didn't shock the betting public, as they bet this filly (who was fourth choice on the Morning Line in a field of seven) down to the Post Time Favorite.
As expected, Need You Now (Ire) (0.90*) had things all her own way in the early going of Race 3. Unfortunately for us, Need You Now never got comfortable on the lead, setting frantic fractions of 23.70 and 47.00 while leading by eight lengths at the half. Needless to say, she couldn't maintain that pace, and finished out of the money.
Our single "A" in Race 4, Snuggley Bear (5.40) didn't win but made us proud, taking the Place just a length behind one of Baffert's first time starters. We ended the sequence as we started, with one of our two "A" selections winning Race 5.
As you all already know, starting well and ending well doesn't get it done; you need to hit on every note to cash on multi-race plays. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $80.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,119.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
A cold day throughout most of the United States today. Aqueduct decided to cancel its card due to high winds, while Zia Park in New Mexico had its weekend of racing wiped out by snow (look for Zia Park to run their big races scheduled for today on Wednesday, Thanksgiving Eve). Meanwhile, SoCal is (relatively) warm and dry; so we turn our attention there and take a stab at today's Pick Five.
RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)
Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013. The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)
Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out. Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track. Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2. No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races. Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes.
RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)
This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event. Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire. Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).
RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)
C’s
Everyone else
This is anybody’s race. Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter. Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.
I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable. But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters. I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400. The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)
Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home. However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default. Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.
Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed. Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance. Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening. Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $3.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 7
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 1
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $48.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 3, 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $80.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)
Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013. The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)
Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out. Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track. Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2. No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races. Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes.
RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)
This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event. Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire. Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).
RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)
C’s
Everyone else
This is anybody’s race. Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter. Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.
I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable. But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters. I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400. The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)
Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home. However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default. Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.
Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed. Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance. Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening. Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $3.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 7
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 1
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $48.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 3, 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $80.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 22, 2013
11/21/13 BHP R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
This past Thursday Trainer Bruce Jackson intended to have Paralyzing Eyes race on some California grass, moving up the class ladder to compete against non-claiming maidens. It would have been the four year old filly's first start on turf since her second career start back in July of 2012.
However, as sometimes happens with the best laid plans of mice and horsemen, such was not to be; as the rains came to Southern California, washing Race 3 at Hollywood Park off the turf and onto the synthetic main track. And since she has been somewhat less than competitive against cheaper stock when running on the main track (as we've seen as we've been following her career) it came as a surprise to virtually no one that Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 53.30) finished well out of the money, a comfortable twenty-five and a half lengths behind the winner, Tiz Zoe Cee (2.90).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
However, as sometimes happens with the best laid plans of mice and horsemen, such was not to be; as the rains came to Southern California, washing Race 3 at Hollywood Park off the turf and onto the synthetic main track. And since she has been somewhat less than competitive against cheaper stock when running on the main track (as we've seen as we've been following her career) it came as a surprise to virtually no one that Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 53.30) finished well out of the money, a comfortable twenty-five and a half lengths behind the winner, Tiz Zoe Cee (2.90).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 17, 2013
11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 4 No Contingency (Final Odds 8.90) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Tama County (4.70) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - # 1 Warren's Veneda (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 6 Lucky Views (4.10) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 4 Holy Candy (2.30*) - "A" Selection
I had liked No Contingency's steadily rising Beyers and the drop in class; but he was not on our tickets because I did not like his failure to finish in the money in any of his three prior tries on synthetic surfaces. Tama County again came from out of nowhere to win, in a manner that I have not seen since Forego retired. Jockey Joe Talamo solved the rail problem by swinging Warren's Veneda off the rail into the three path to take the lead in the stretch and hold on for the victory.
I didn't think much of Lucky Views, going as he was for a trainer (Michael Machowsky) with just one visit to the Winner's Circle the last twenty-nine times that he sent out a first time starter. Lucky Views is also out of a sire (Lucky Pulpit) whose progeny have just a .10 Winning Percentage in their debuts; a stat that does not inspire confidence. So congrats to those who saw something in this two year old gelding that I did not and slotted him in the top spot on their tickets.
I wrote in the preview that both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Well they sure didn't prove that today, as Admission (3.80) beat only one horse to the wire; that one being Blu Jon (3.80).
All things considered this was not one of our better showings, as we could only get three "A's" home, while having no part of the winner in the other two legs. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $50.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 1 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,745.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 1 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,745.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
Taking a stab at Sunday's Pick Five @ Hollywood Park; and, I must confess, the sequence was more challenging than I thought it was going to be, considering both the race conditions and field sizes. On the positive side, I think I found a few vulnerable favorites; on the negative side, races with vulnerable favorites tend to be wide open, if not chaotic.
Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's. Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong. Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.
So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)
C's
# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)
He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out. I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.
RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)
Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early. As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it. Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)
Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track. But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet. Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end. This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)
Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters. Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)
Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics. Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level. Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for $1.50:
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 1, 5, 8
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 2, 4
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's. Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong. Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.
So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)
C's
# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)
He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out. I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.
RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)
Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early. As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it. Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)
Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track. But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet. Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end. This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)
Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters. Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)
Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics. Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level. Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for $1.50:
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 1, 5, 8
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 2, 4
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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