Taking a stab at Sunday's Pick Five @ Hollywood Park; and, I must confess, the sequence was more challenging than I thought it was going to be, considering both the race conditions and field sizes. On the positive side, I think I found a few vulnerable favorites; on the negative side, races with vulnerable favorites tend to be wide open, if not chaotic.
Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's. Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong. Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.
So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)
C's
# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)
He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out. I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.
RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)
Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early. As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it. Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)
Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track. But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet. Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end. This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)
Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters. Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)
Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics. Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level. Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for $1.50:
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 1, 5, 8
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 2, 4
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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