"You can't expect to hit the jackpot if you don't put a few nickels in the machine." - Flip Wilson
We're almost there! Just a few more days until we reach horse racing's biggest day, the first Saturday in May. So, as is our custom each year (and as was forewarned in this blog's initial post) we're about to go dark, not to post again until sometime in the middle of next week. Well, we won't be totally offline, since we're now on Twitter (@Jimbo_on_Tbreds) as we continue to take baby steps into the twenty-first century.
First things first: our chances of cashing our bet on the field in Futures Pool 1 look pretty good, as Ride On Curlin is currently the only non-field horse in that pool that will be running Saturday (if he should draw in, Pablo Del Monte would be another). Of course we also lost the two bucks that we wagered on Rise Up in that pool; but, as I said, sometimes the heart overrules the head. Anyway, barring a Ride On Curlin victory Saturday we'll make a profit on our Futures wagers; indeed, since it won't cost much to leverage the wager, I could put a Win bet on Ride On Curlin in order to guarantee a net gain; but I'll probably just stand pat in that area.
Second, let me point out some free resources currently available on the web. Free Brisnet early Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby are available here, courtesy of FreePastPerformances.com. As the Post Position draw won't be until Wednesday, the horses are ordered by the number of points that they earned in the Derby prep races. Changes that can be made now include:
1) Take out Ring Weekend, as he will not run Saturday. This makes Commanding Curve number twenty in the rankings.
2) Make Martin Garcia the jockey for Chitu.
3) Change the owner of General a Rod from J. Armando Rodriguez to Skychai Racing and Starlight Stables, as the horse was sold Monday.
This link leads to the 2014 Kentucky Derby Preview Packet from HorseBettingDirect.com. The package contains horse by horse analysis for the Kentucky Derby entrants, along with race by race analysis of all the Kentucky Derby Prep Races, plus a few other tidbits.
While this next resource is also free, they do request your name and email. This link leads to the Xpressbet.com Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide. As you might guess from its title, this one is primarily a guide as to how to bet the Derby, as several expert analysts (including Mike Battaglia, Jon White, and Steve Byk) provide commentary and suggest wagering strategies based upon a mythical one hundred dollar bankroll.
Be sure to re-check the links for the above two guides as the week progresses for updates.
As for my own thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, I see it as primarily a referendum for or against California Chrome. Unless he has the misfortune to draw either Post 1 or Post 2 (or, for that matter, not make it to the starting gate at all) California Chrome will go off as the Post Time Favorite; and rightly so. California Chrome enters the Derby riding a four race winning streak, all by margins greater than five lengths, against some very stiff competition.
In The Santa Anita Derby California Chrome defeated Hoppertunity, who had defeated Ride On Curlin and Tapiture in The Rebel Stakes. California Chrome also defeated Candy Boy in The Santa Anita Derby; Candy Boy had previously defeated Chitu in The Robert B Lewis Stakes, Chitu's only career defeat. In the California Cup Derby California Chrome defeated Tamarando, who had previously defeated Dance With Fate in the El Camino Real Derby.
In addition to all the above, California Chrome will be entering the Kentucky Derby with the best career speed figure along with the best last out speed figure (both Brisnet and Beyer). So yeah, he's your Kentucky Derby favorite, and my wagering strategy for the race pretty much boils down to how much of him I'm going to use.
So is California Chrome a mortal lock? Well, he could still draw the dreaded Post Position 1 (or PP2, for that matter). That would certainly be a game changer. It's also possible that weather could turn foul Saturday; since California Chrome has never competed on an off track, your guess is as good as mine as to how he would handle the mud. And, of course, it's The Kentucky Derby, meaning that there's always the chance for something to go horribly, horribly wrong.
OK, so who else to turn to if not California Chrome? Well, you could start with Dance With Fate, the horse who finished a length and a half in front of California Chrome in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. If you check out the Xpressbet.com Wagering Guide linked above, you'll see that Jon Whilte thinks highly of this colt's chances. Personally, I'll pass on Dance With Fate. I believe that California Chrome has matured beyond Dance With Fate since they were juveniles; as noted above California Chrome has defeated the horse who defeated Dance With Fate; and, most telling of all, Dance With Fate's trainer Peter Eurton had no intention to run Dance With Fate in the Kentucky Derby, shipping him home to California until Dance With Fate's owners got Derby Fever and had the colt shipped back to Kentucky.
A runner I do expect to be using in some capacity is Danza, winner of The Arkansas Derby. Many have pointed to the large speed figure Danza earned in that victory relative to his prior figures and have stated a belief that he will bounce off that effort. While such is possible, my opinion is that Danza performed in that contest much better than he had previously because he was finally given the distance that he had been craving. I don't know if Danza is better than California Chrome, but I do consider him to be a contender this coming Saturday, and will use him (at least a little) in the top spot.
Another horse I will be using at least a little in the top spot is Tapiture. Remember what I wrote about Vicar's in Trouble prior to the Louisiana Derby? Well, I believe the same applies to Tapiture here. Tapiture, whose spot in the Kentucky Derby was already secured, took the scenic route around the Oaklawn Park oval in the Arkansas Derby, going four wide around the track before moving out even further in the stretch. In other words, Tapiture ran that prep race like a prep race; a paid workout if you will, and finished out of the money for the first time in his career. I expect Tapiture to be much improved over that "effort" this Saturday.
I was also very much impressed with the heart that Tapiture showed when taking the Place in The Rebel Stakes behind Hoppertunity. Tapiture did not get a good trip in The Rebel, and was boxed in as the leaders came down the stretch. So what did he do? In a move reminiscent of Seattle Slew, Tapiture made his own hole, forcing his way out of his predicament by moving his rivals out of his way. I love a horse with heart like that, and it's a trait that can come in quite handy when you're running in a field of twenty.
So I expect to be using those three on top; primarily California Chrome, but also a little of Danza and Tapiture. For the vertical exotics, underneath those I figure to work in Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, and Ride On Curlin. Oh, and shame, shame (yes, multiple shames) on Churchill Downs for not having dime Superfectas on Derby Day, once again raising the minimum to a dollar on the first Saturday in May. While one can understand their desire not to have their cashiers tied up punching all those ten cent wagers, there is no excuse for not offering the dime supers at the self-betting kiosks and online, where no cashiers are involved.
So soon I'll be making my annual trek to Vegas, though there will be some sadness in this year's journey. I began making these yearly trips back in 2002, the year War Emblem won the Derby. At that time our Derby Crew was just a trio: myself, my good buddy T, and JL, a friend of T's whom I had never before met until that 2002 weekend. Yet you wouldn't have known that JL and I had never before met; because right off the bat he greeted and treated me as if we had been friends for life. A gregarious man with a heart as big as all outdoors, JL currently finds himself traveling some bumpy roads in his life. I have full confidence that he'll come through this bad trip alright, being the fighter that he is; but JL will have to scratch out of this weekend's activities, and I assure you that's much more my loss than his (as it is, I must confess, whenever any member of the crew is unable to make the sojourn). So until we are able to get together again here's wishing all the best to JL, with the hope that he will come out of this better than he went in.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Saturday, April 26, 2014
4/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 5 Sizzlin' Joe (Final Odds 3.60) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Melair - # 2 Rovenna (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Snow Chief - # 4 Awesome Return (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 11 Jovita's Tuffy (2.20) - "A" Selection
We had 'em all, but not all together. But to be completely frank, we really weren't all that close to cashing; for neither of our two "A" selections in Race 8 - # 2 Woodmans Luck (2.90*) and # 3 Awesome Prospect (4.30) - made it into the Exacta; while our sole "A" in The Snow Chief, # 6 Tamarando (1.50*), was a well beaten fourth. Sure, we collect if we bet it caveman style; but we sure don't profit. A better chance would have been if we swapped which "Awesome" we made an "A" and which we made a "C". But neither of those things happened, so we wind up with a pair of tickets with three out of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 2 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a $172.50 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Melair - # 2 Rovenna (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Snow Chief - # 4 Awesome Return (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 11 Jovita's Tuffy (2.20) - "A" Selection
We had 'em all, but not all together. But to be completely frank, we really weren't all that close to cashing; for neither of our two "A" selections in Race 8 - # 2 Woodmans Luck (2.90*) and # 3 Awesome Prospect (4.30) - made it into the Exacta; while our sole "A" in The Snow Chief, # 6 Tamarando (1.50*), was a well beaten fourth. Sure, we collect if we bet it caveman style; but we sure don't profit. A better chance would have been if we swapped which "Awesome" we made an "A" and which we made a "C". But neither of those things happened, so we wind up with a pair of tickets with three out of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 2 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a $172.50 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The California Gold Rush comes to Santa Anita today, on the first Saturday of the track's "There Ain't No Hollywood Park No More" meet. The card features five stakes for California bred or California sired runners; two of those five being part of the Late Pick Four sequence.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Woodmans Luck (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Awesome Prospect (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Control Seeker (ML 9-2)
# 5 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 5-1)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)
# 9 Gallant Charm (ML 6-1)
It would be both appropriate and nice if the winner of the final race ever at Hollywood Park, Woodmans Luck, would be a winner on the first California Gold Rush card not held at that fabled track. But as Woodmans Luck is oh-for-four on the Santa Anita grass, and Trainer Vladimir Cerin is oh-for-his last fifteen when moving a runner from dirt to turf, it makes sense to spread a bit in this one.
Awesome Prospect took the show at this level over this turf course his last time out. His breeding, as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating, suggests that he should improve with the added real estate. Control Seeker's best days are behind him; but he doesn't need his best to win at this level, and he should be forwardly placed early. Sizzlin' Joe is the only runner in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass.
Volkonsky has shown himself to be competitive at this level, and the Jockey/Trainer combo of Bejarano/Hollendorfer must be respected. Gallant Charm has taken the Show and been within two lengths of the winner in each of his last three races. Moving to state restricted company should help, as should the added distance.
RACE 9 - [S](F) The Melair $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-2)
# 2 Rovenna (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Magic Spot (ML 5-1)
# 5 Anniversary Kitty (ML 5-1)
Swiss Lake Yodeler crossed the wire in front of Rovenna in both The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes and The Soviet Problem Stakes last year. But it seems as if Rovenna has come further than Swiss Lake Yodeler since then, so she may turn the tables today.
Magic Spot was victorious in her last two outings, earning Beyer Speed Figures in each that fit well with the top contenders here. While both those races were on the turf, the daughter of Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem should be expected to handle a dirt track well. Anniversary Kitty is another making the move from turf to dirt with a sire that suggests that the surface switch should not be a problem.
RACE 10 - [S] The Snow Chief $250k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Tamarando (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Alert Bay (ML 3-1)
# 3 Aotearoa (ML 6-1)
# 4 Awesome Return (4-1)
# 8 Patriots Rule (ML 9-2)
Tamarando is the clear class of this field; but this is his turf debut, and he barely picked up his feet his last time competing; so it seems prudent to use some backup. Alert Bay has yet to finish out of the Exacta in his six race career, including a two turn contest on this turf course. Aotearoa is a stakes winner against open company on this turf course. Awesome Return has been showing steady improvement despite just the lone victory to his name. Patriots Rule is another in this field that could be charging late if the favorite doesn't fire.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Southern Sunrise (ML 2-1)
# 7 No Contingency (ML 7-2)
# 11 Jovita's Tuffy (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 Tribal Smoke (ML 8-1)
Southern Sunrise is an intriguing Morning Line Favorite, as he's competing above his conditions, as he has just one career victory in this non-winners of three contest. I expect Jockey Aaron Gryder to run and gun with Southern Sunrise on the rail and just see if he can hold on 'til the wire. No Contingency took the Place last time out against unrestricted claimers with more expensive price tags; he should appreciate the class relief today. Jovita's Tuffy has run just two career races on a fast dirt track, winning one and taking the Place in the other. Tribal Smoke could burn himself out in a speed duel with Southern Sunrise; but he could also sit right behind that one and get first run at the leader, an enviable position in a contest such as this.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,9 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 1,7,11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 2,3,4,8 with 1,7,11 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 4 $2.00
Total: $56.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Woodmans Luck (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Awesome Prospect (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Control Seeker (ML 9-2)
# 5 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 5-1)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)
# 9 Gallant Charm (ML 6-1)
It would be both appropriate and nice if the winner of the final race ever at Hollywood Park, Woodmans Luck, would be a winner on the first California Gold Rush card not held at that fabled track. But as Woodmans Luck is oh-for-four on the Santa Anita grass, and Trainer Vladimir Cerin is oh-for-his last fifteen when moving a runner from dirt to turf, it makes sense to spread a bit in this one.
Awesome Prospect took the show at this level over this turf course his last time out. His breeding, as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating, suggests that he should improve with the added real estate. Control Seeker's best days are behind him; but he doesn't need his best to win at this level, and he should be forwardly placed early. Sizzlin' Joe is the only runner in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass.
Volkonsky has shown himself to be competitive at this level, and the Jockey/Trainer combo of Bejarano/Hollendorfer must be respected. Gallant Charm has taken the Show and been within two lengths of the winner in each of his last three races. Moving to state restricted company should help, as should the added distance.
RACE 9 - [S](F) The Melair $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-2)
# 2 Rovenna (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Magic Spot (ML 5-1)
# 5 Anniversary Kitty (ML 5-1)
Swiss Lake Yodeler crossed the wire in front of Rovenna in both The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes and The Soviet Problem Stakes last year. But it seems as if Rovenna has come further than Swiss Lake Yodeler since then, so she may turn the tables today.
Magic Spot was victorious in her last two outings, earning Beyer Speed Figures in each that fit well with the top contenders here. While both those races were on the turf, the daughter of Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem should be expected to handle a dirt track well. Anniversary Kitty is another making the move from turf to dirt with a sire that suggests that the surface switch should not be a problem.
RACE 10 - [S] The Snow Chief $250k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Tamarando (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Alert Bay (ML 3-1)
# 3 Aotearoa (ML 6-1)
# 4 Awesome Return (4-1)
# 8 Patriots Rule (ML 9-2)
Tamarando is the clear class of this field; but this is his turf debut, and he barely picked up his feet his last time competing; so it seems prudent to use some backup. Alert Bay has yet to finish out of the Exacta in his six race career, including a two turn contest on this turf course. Aotearoa is a stakes winner against open company on this turf course. Awesome Return has been showing steady improvement despite just the lone victory to his name. Patriots Rule is another in this field that could be charging late if the favorite doesn't fire.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Southern Sunrise (ML 2-1)
# 7 No Contingency (ML 7-2)
# 11 Jovita's Tuffy (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 Tribal Smoke (ML 8-1)
Southern Sunrise is an intriguing Morning Line Favorite, as he's competing above his conditions, as he has just one career victory in this non-winners of three contest. I expect Jockey Aaron Gryder to run and gun with Southern Sunrise on the rail and just see if he can hold on 'til the wire. No Contingency took the Place last time out against unrestricted claimers with more expensive price tags; he should appreciate the class relief today. Jovita's Tuffy has run just two career races on a fast dirt track, winning one and taking the Place in the other. Tribal Smoke could burn himself out in a speed duel with Southern Sunrise; but he could also sit right behind that one and get first run at the leader, an enviable position in a contest such as this.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,9 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 1,7,11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 2,3,4,8 with 1,7,11 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 4 $2.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 20, 2014
4/20/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Results
Race 3 - # 3 Kings Over (Final Odds 1.60) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 6 Meuser (2.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 2 Our Ritz (7.90) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 7 Trouble With Girls (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Van Citra (2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Safari Queen - # 4 Coursegold (8.00) - "C" Selection
The official chart of Race 5 gives the comment line that Our Ritz "slipped through"; and that pretty accurately describes what happened with our Rainbow Six play; for Our Ritz slipped through our selection process just as surely as he slipped through on the rail to cross the wire three lengths in front of one of our "A" Selections, # 6 Caminito (4.30), thus leaving us holding a ticket with five of six winners; a ticket that pays just as much as one with zero of six winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of 3 / 6 / 2 / 7 / 2 / 4 were rewarded with a $3,785.20 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 4 - # 6 Meuser (2.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 2 Our Ritz (7.90) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 7 Trouble With Girls (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Van Citra (2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Safari Queen - # 4 Coursegold (8.00) - "C" Selection
The official chart of Race 5 gives the comment line that Our Ritz "slipped through"; and that pretty accurately describes what happened with our Rainbow Six play; for Our Ritz slipped through our selection process just as surely as he slipped through on the rail to cross the wire three lengths in front of one of our "A" Selections, # 6 Caminito (4.30), thus leaving us holding a ticket with five of six winners; a ticket that pays just as much as one with zero of six winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of 3 / 6 / 2 / 7 / 2 / 4 were rewarded with a $3,785.20 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/20/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview
Happy Easter everyone! Hope you all are enjoying yourselves this weekend, however you are spending it. We turn to South Florida today and take a run at Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six.
RACE 3 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kings Over (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Apriority (ML 5-1)
The last three times Kings Over has routed on a fast dirt track he has earned Beyer Speed Figures at or near par for today's class level. Eliminate the stakes tries from his recent form and Apriority has a Win, a Place, and a Show in his last three races.
RACE 4 - OC 50k/SAL 50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 6 Meuser (ML 3-1)
# 9 Drover Road (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Daddy's Kid (ML 20-1)
Meuser can be expected to improve second off the layoff. Drover Road gets some much needed class relief. Daddy's Kid ran well late last time out, his first try at a route.
RACE 5 - Clm $20k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Caminito (ML 3-1)
# 8 Facundo (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Caminito tries winners for the first time after graduating at the $25k level with a clear two and three quarter length win. Facundo took the Show last time out against more expensive, and should benefit from the shortened distance.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stash the Cat (ML 5-1)
# 7 Trouble With Girls (ML 3-1)
# 10 Song for Krismike (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Lador Vador (ML 6-1)
Stash the Cat returns to the grass and dons the blinkers for the first time; expect him to be forwardly placed early. Trouble With Girls takes a big step down the class ladder; the last time he competed at this level he took the Place in a contest that was moved to the main track. Song for Krismike has flashed early speed both times she's been on the grass; but she may be compromised by the outside post. Lador Vador rallied late to take the Show at this level last time out.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Van Citra (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sin Mirar Atras (ML 3-1)
# 8 Seven Ten Split (ML 4-1)
C's
RACE 3 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kings Over (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Apriority (ML 5-1)
The last three times Kings Over has routed on a fast dirt track he has earned Beyer Speed Figures at or near par for today's class level. Eliminate the stakes tries from his recent form and Apriority has a Win, a Place, and a Show in his last three races.
RACE 4 - OC 50k/SAL 50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Meuser (ML 3-1)
# 9 Drover Road (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Daddy's Kid (ML 20-1)
Meuser can be expected to improve second off the layoff. Drover Road gets some much needed class relief. Daddy's Kid ran well late last time out, his first try at a route.
RACE 5 - Clm $20k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Caminito (ML 3-1)
# 8 Facundo (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Caminito tries winners for the first time after graduating at the $25k level with a clear two and three quarter length win. Facundo took the Show last time out against more expensive, and should benefit from the shortened distance.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stash the Cat (ML 5-1)
# 7 Trouble With Girls (ML 3-1)
# 10 Song for Krismike (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Lador Vador (ML 6-1)
Stash the Cat returns to the grass and dons the blinkers for the first time; expect him to be forwardly placed early. Trouble With Girls takes a big step down the class ladder; the last time he competed at this level he took the Place in a contest that was moved to the main track. Song for Krismike has flashed early speed both times she's been on the grass; but she may be compromised by the outside post. Lador Vador rallied late to take the Show at this level last time out.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Van Citra (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sin Mirar Atras (ML 3-1)
# 8 Seven Ten Split (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Van Citra has earned Beyer Speed Figures better than par for this level the last two times that he's routed on a fast dirt track. Sin Mirar Atras took the Place against open claimers his last time out, and moves to a barn that gets approximately 36% winners first time off a claim. Seven Ten Split makes his debut on a fast dirt track after doing reasonably well on the grass despite not having a strong turf pedigree.
RACE 8 - (F) The Safari Queen $75k - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Madame Giry (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 Coarsegold (ML 4-1)
# 8 What a Party (ML 3-1)
Madame Giry is a standout here going by career earnings, but she's disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of her last nine starts, and she's yet to visit the Gulfstream Park Winner's Circle. Coarsegold is a stakes winner over this turf course (albeit via disqualification) and has yet to finish out of the Trifecta when competing on the Gulfstream Park grass. Toss out that attempt at routing and What a Party is just a half length away from being four-for-her last four when racing at today's distance on the grass.
Now, while the Rainbow Six is a jackpot wager (with a pool that currently stands at over five million dollars) I don't see anything in my selections above the could possibly work out to being a sole winning ticket. Therefore, we're going to play this one like a normal Pick Six wager, constructing our tickets Crist style; which works out as follows:
All A Entries
$0.40 P6: 3 with 6,9 with 6,8 with 1,7,10 with 2,3,8 with 3 $14.40
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 6 with 6,9 with 6,8 with 1,7,10 with 2,3,8 with 3 $7.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 2 with 6,8 with 1,7,10 with 2,3,8 with 3 $3.60
$0.20 P6: 3 with 6,9 with 6,8 with 4 with 2,3,8 with 3 $2.40
$0.20 P6: 3 with 6,9 with 6,8 with 1,7,10 with 2,3,8 with 4,8 $14.40
Total: $42.00
Post Time for Race 3 is 2:27 EDT / 11:27 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/19/14 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Confucius Say - # 4 In the Fairway (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial - # 3 Rise Up (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sugar Maple - # 8 Flattering Bea (5.40) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Charles Town Classic - # 7 Imperative (26.50) - No Selection
We were correct in our belief that Game On Dude (0.60*) would not win the Charles Town Classic. We were also correct when we said that the contest looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead. But we were not correct in picking which horse would be coming from off the pace to cross the wire first; and it cost us, as the three "A's" we were holding going into the final leg go to waste, as we had no part of the Charles Town Classic winner.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For posterity's sake, the fifty cent Will Pays for the four horses to which we were alive:
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (8.60) - $241.60
# 2 Moreno (9.10) - $161.85
# 3 Game On Dude (0.60*) - $30.50
# 5 Long River (2.40) - $48.50
Since we had Clubhouse Ride and Long River five times each, the payouts to us would have been $1208.00 and $242.50, respectively, had either of those two won. But that's what could have been. As to what actually came to pass, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a $631.95 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial - # 3 Rise Up (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sugar Maple - # 8 Flattering Bea (5.40) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Charles Town Classic - # 7 Imperative (26.50) - No Selection
We were correct in our belief that Game On Dude (0.60*) would not win the Charles Town Classic. We were also correct when we said that the contest looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead. But we were not correct in picking which horse would be coming from off the pace to cross the wire first; and it cost us, as the three "A's" we were holding going into the final leg go to waste, as we had no part of the Charles Town Classic winner.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For posterity's sake, the fifty cent Will Pays for the four horses to which we were alive:
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (8.60) - $241.60
# 2 Moreno (9.10) - $161.85
# 3 Game On Dude (0.60*) - $30.50
# 5 Long River (2.40) - $48.50
Since we had Clubhouse Ride and Long River five times each, the payouts to us would have been $1208.00 and $242.50, respectively, had either of those two won. But that's what could have been. As to what actually came to pass, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a $631.95 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 19, 2014
4/19/14 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
The Dude heads to West Virginia to once again compete in The Charles Town Classic. A win tonight would make Game On Dude the highest earning gelding in the history of North American racing, passing John Henry's mark. Do I think The Dude can do it? Well, let's take a look at the other races in the sequence first.
RACE 9 - [S] The Confucius Say $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 In the Fairway (Morning Line 2-1)
C's
# 8 Wise Mac (ML 5-2)
I think it's fair to toss In the Fairway's last outing, being as it was after a four month vacation and on an off track (making In the Fairway oh-for-four lifetime when the track is not fast). In the Fairway is the clear class of the field, and that 85 Beyer Speed Figure he earned two starts back is better than anything anyone else in the field shows in their recent form.
Wise Mac is a lightly raced four year old gelding who is a perfect three-for-three over the Charles Town track. His speed figures are light, but all his wins have been by daylight, which suggests that he may have more in the tank than what he's shown.
RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Rise Up (ML 2-1)
C's
# 8 Germaniac (4-1)
Those of you with good memories may recall that I placed a two dollar Win wager on Rise Up in The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool One last year at 50-1. Well that money's gone; hopefully Rise Up can help us add a few dollars to the bankroll tonight. After spending the past few months competing for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, Rise Up will no doubt appreciate the class relief he gets here. My only concern is that Rise Up hasn't competed in a sprint since August; hence the use of Germaniac, a winner at tonight's distance in a listed stakes at Laurel in January, as a backup.
RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $200k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Wardelle (ML 20-1)
# 3 Quiet Success (ML 7-2)
# 4 Prize Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 More Than a Cruise (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flattering Bea (ML 10-1)
C's
# 6 Rusticana (ML 8-1)
# 9 Saturday Surprise (ML 10-1)
RACE 9 - [S] The Confucius Say $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 In the Fairway (Morning Line 2-1)
C's
# 8 Wise Mac (ML 5-2)
I think it's fair to toss In the Fairway's last outing, being as it was after a four month vacation and on an off track (making In the Fairway oh-for-four lifetime when the track is not fast). In the Fairway is the clear class of the field, and that 85 Beyer Speed Figure he earned two starts back is better than anything anyone else in the field shows in their recent form.
Wise Mac is a lightly raced four year old gelding who is a perfect three-for-three over the Charles Town track. His speed figures are light, but all his wins have been by daylight, which suggests that he may have more in the tank than what he's shown.
RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Rise Up (ML 2-1)
C's
# 8 Germaniac (4-1)
Those of you with good memories may recall that I placed a two dollar Win wager on Rise Up in The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool One last year at 50-1. Well that money's gone; hopefully Rise Up can help us add a few dollars to the bankroll tonight. After spending the past few months competing for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, Rise Up will no doubt appreciate the class relief he gets here. My only concern is that Rise Up hasn't competed in a sprint since August; hence the use of Germaniac, a winner at tonight's distance in a listed stakes at Laurel in January, as a backup.
RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $200k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Wardelle (ML 20-1)
# 3 Quiet Success (ML 7-2)
# 4 Prize Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 More Than a Cruise (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flattering Bea (ML 10-1)
C's
# 6 Rusticana (ML 8-1)
# 9 Saturday Surprise (ML 10-1)
Needless to say, the decision of the connections of # 2 My Pal Chrisy (ML 2-1) and # 10 Saturday Nthe Park (ML 6-1) to run their horses elsewhere today has a major impact as to how this race projects.
Wardelle is a stakes winner over the Charles Town track, having taken The Pink Ribbon back in September, which was run at tonight's distance of seven furlongs. Quiet Success ships up from Louisiana where she's earned back-to-back wins.
The last time Prize Winner got to run at tonight's distance on a fast dirt track she not only won but she also earned a Beyer that fits right in with the top contenders in this field. More Than a Cruise, a winner in Maryland bred stakes company last time out, has yet to finish out of the Exacta at tonight's distance. Flattering Bea is three-for-four lifetime over the Charles Town track, the one loss coming when she finished behind Wardelle in The Pink Ribbon.
RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 6-1)
# 5 Long River (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Moreno (ML 3-1)
# 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5)
There's no denying that # 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5) is the class of the field; indeed, he's going to be the class of pretty much any field that he's in. But there's also no denying that The Dude has become a need to lead type horse; if he's not comfortably ahead early, he's not going to run his best; and once he's passed, he's done. And with Moreno to his left and # 4 Ruler of Love (ML 20-1) to his right, Game On Dude is not getting a comfortable early lead tonight. Because of their class I can't see leaving The Dude or Moreno completely off the ticket; but this one looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead.
Clubhouse Ride missed by half a length of winning this event last year. Long River ships down from New York after just missing by two necks of coming into tonight's contest with a five race winning streak. Note Long River's ability to come from off the pace on the inner Aqueduct winterized track.
Okay; that's the analysis. I won't be getting too fancy tonight, as I'll just be punching two tickets:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,5 $20.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 1,2,3,5 $56.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 8:45 EDT / 5:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Kentucky Derby: Winning After a Loss
I suppose this post could be subtitled "This Is Why They're Known As Prep Races." We should always keep in mind that the goal for each trainer with a runner in the Kentucky Derby field is to get their horse into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, without having their horse peak too soon. Granted, with the relatively new points system in operation, some horses do have to put forward their best in their final prep in order to be assured of a spot in the Derby field. But for many, especially those that already had their place in the Kentucky Derby wrapped up, the goal of the final prep race was to simply run well and come away healthy, and certainly not to win at all costs.
Anyway, to help us all remember this important point, listed below are those horses who lost their final prep race before going on to win the Kentucky Derby. I wanted to restrict the list to relatively recent history; so we'll look just at the most recent twenty-five runnings of the Kentucky Derby; that is, 1989-2013 (inclusive).
YEAR KY DERBY FINAL PREP FINISH FINAL KY
WINNER RACE DERBY ODDS
2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby Second 8.00
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby Fourth 50.60
2007 Street Sense Blue Grass Stakes Second 4.90*
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita Derby Fourth 50.30
2003 Funny Cide Wood Memorial Second 12.80
2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial Second 10.50
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita Derby Second 8.40
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita Derby Second 4.00
1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby Second 5.90
1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass Stakes Fourth 24.50
1994 Go For Gin Wood Memorial Second 9.10
1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass Stakes Fourth 12.90
1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby Second 16.80
1990 Unbridled Blue Grass Stakes Third 10.80
Fourteen of the last twenty-five runnings of the Kentucky Derby (56%) have been won by horses that lost their last race prior to the Run for the Roses. Whether or not this year's winner adds to the list remains to be seen; but the point when handicapping is don't automatically eliminate a runner from consideration to win on the first Saturday in May simply because they happened to have lost their last time out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Anyway, to help us all remember this important point, listed below are those horses who lost their final prep race before going on to win the Kentucky Derby. I wanted to restrict the list to relatively recent history; so we'll look just at the most recent twenty-five runnings of the Kentucky Derby; that is, 1989-2013 (inclusive).
YEAR KY DERBY FINAL PREP FINISH FINAL KY
WINNER RACE DERBY ODDS
2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby Second 8.00
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby Fourth 50.60
2007 Street Sense Blue Grass Stakes Second 4.90*
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita Derby Fourth 50.30
2003 Funny Cide Wood Memorial Second 12.80
2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial Second 10.50
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita Derby Second 8.40
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita Derby Second 4.00
1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby Second 5.90
1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass Stakes Fourth 24.50
1994 Go For Gin Wood Memorial Second 9.10
1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass Stakes Fourth 12.90
1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby Second 16.80
1990 Unbridled Blue Grass Stakes Third 10.80
Fourteen of the last twenty-five runnings of the Kentucky Derby (56%) have been won by horses that lost their last race prior to the Run for the Roses. Whether or not this year's winner adds to the list remains to be seen; but the point when handicapping is don't automatically eliminate a runner from consideration to win on the first Saturday in May simply because they happened to have lost their last time out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 13, 2014
4/13/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Oliver's Tale (Final Odds 4.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Remind Mee (3.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The San Simeon - # 5 Sweet Swap (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Kid Rollins (2.50) - "A" Selection
We were able to get home "A" selections in three of the four legs. But the leg we missed; man, did we miss!
We had no part of Oliver's Tale, who was making not just his first start charging down the hill, but his first start on any turf course. But Oliver's Tale manged to take the lead at first call after breaking last of all from the gate; which, incidentally, makes for the rather ironic trouble line of "off slow" for a horse that lead the field from first call to last.
But it wasn't just Oliver's Tale that we had no part of. Neither the Place horse (# 4 Hawkedon (10.40)) nor the Show horse (# 10 Major Truth (13.60)) were to be found anywhere on our tickets. So, yeah, Race 6 was a real swing and a miss for us.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a $122.20 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Remind Mee (3.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The San Simeon - # 5 Sweet Swap (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Kid Rollins (2.50) - "A" Selection
We were able to get home "A" selections in three of the four legs. But the leg we missed; man, did we miss!
We had no part of Oliver's Tale, who was making not just his first start charging down the hill, but his first start on any turf course. But Oliver's Tale manged to take the lead at first call after breaking last of all from the gate; which, incidentally, makes for the rather ironic trouble line of "off slow" for a horse that lead the field from first call to last.
But it wasn't just Oliver's Tale that we had no part of. Neither the Place horse (# 4 Hawkedon (10.40)) nor the Show horse (# 10 Major Truth (13.60)) were to be found anywhere on our tickets. So, yeah, Race 6 was a real swing and a miss for us.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a $122.20 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/13/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Before we start, I just wanted to pass along the good news for those who may have missed it that Steve Crist (of the Crist method that we use to construct our tickets) is showing significant signs of improvement. We continue to wish Steve a full and complete recovery and we look forward to him once again being a vibrant part of our community.
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 5 Kochees (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Monument (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Yankee Rebel (ML 9-2)
Cacau (ML 12-1) projects to be fast early, especially with the blinkers back on. But Cacau was clear early charging down the hill at this level two back and couldn't hold on; it's hard to see any special reason why today will be different.
Kochees took the Show in each of his last two turf sprints at this class level. Yankee Rebel has the talent to win at this level, but his career line on the Santa Anita grass (seven starts: one Win, three Place, two Show) suggests a willingness to settle for a minor share. Monument's form seems to have carried over to the turf quite well; at least the downhill version of the grass.
The 2012 version of Unusual Heatwave (ML 12-1) would have swallowed this field whole. But Unusual Heatwave's three starts last year show that he's no longer the same horse that he one was. Perhaps he can return to his prior form; but betting that he will today in my mind is more wishcasting than handicapping.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bench Press (ML 4-1)
# 6 Remind Mee (ML 9-2)
C's
# 3 I Buy Gold (ML 15-1)
# 7 Bosque Angel (ML 12-1)
# 9 Heads South (ML 6-1)
# 12 Charbroiled (ML 8-1)
Bench Press enters today's contest with the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure, confirming that the class drop was what he needed to graduate. Remind Mee was able to take the Show at this level last time out charging down the hill; since Remind Mee doesn't show much in the way of turf pedigree, it's fair to presume that he will improve with the return to dirt.
I Buy Gold has been showing steady improvement; perhaps he takes another step forward today. Bosque Angel, Heads South, and Charbroiled all exit convincing maiden wins, with the latter two running for new barn that do quite well the first time off a claim.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 6 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 8 Lakerville (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Chiloquin (ML 6-1)
I may later regret not singling Lakerville in this one, as he has come back better than ever after missing all of 2013. But Lakerville's inability so far to win an open stakes does create some concern, and you never know when closers are going to get stuck in traffic; hence the inclusion of Sweet Swap and Zimmer as "A" selections. Chiloquin merits consideration due to his victory over Sweet Swap in Chiloquin's only prior effort charging down the hill.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kid Rollins (ML 3-1)
# 5 A Little Luckier (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Cleverly Beverly (ML 9-2)
# 8 Itsabeautifulday (ML 4-1)
Kid Rollins took the Place at this level last time out, after taking the Show at this level in each of her two starts prior to that. Interesting that she's had Drayden Van Dyke on her back when he was a ten pound apprentice; a seven pound apprentice; and now a five pound apprentice. A Little Luckier drops down for a tag for only the second time in her career, and this is the cheapest that she's ever been offered for sale.
Cleverly Beverly took the Place at this level last time out. Will the seventeenth time be the charm? It could be today if she's willing to come off the pace as she did in a couple of her starts upstate. Itsabeautifulday will be making her first route attempt on real dirt; her pedigree (as expressed by her Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests the extra distance will do her well.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 3,7,9,12 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 3 with 3,5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 6,8 $12.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 5 Kochees (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Monument (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Yankee Rebel (ML 9-2)
Cacau (ML 12-1) projects to be fast early, especially with the blinkers back on. But Cacau was clear early charging down the hill at this level two back and couldn't hold on; it's hard to see any special reason why today will be different.
Kochees took the Show in each of his last two turf sprints at this class level. Yankee Rebel has the talent to win at this level, but his career line on the Santa Anita grass (seven starts: one Win, three Place, two Show) suggests a willingness to settle for a minor share. Monument's form seems to have carried over to the turf quite well; at least the downhill version of the grass.
The 2012 version of Unusual Heatwave (ML 12-1) would have swallowed this field whole. But Unusual Heatwave's three starts last year show that he's no longer the same horse that he one was. Perhaps he can return to his prior form; but betting that he will today in my mind is more wishcasting than handicapping.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bench Press (ML 4-1)
# 6 Remind Mee (ML 9-2)
C's
# 3 I Buy Gold (ML 15-1)
# 7 Bosque Angel (ML 12-1)
# 9 Heads South (ML 6-1)
# 12 Charbroiled (ML 8-1)
Bench Press enters today's contest with the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure, confirming that the class drop was what he needed to graduate. Remind Mee was able to take the Show at this level last time out charging down the hill; since Remind Mee doesn't show much in the way of turf pedigree, it's fair to presume that he will improve with the return to dirt.
I Buy Gold has been showing steady improvement; perhaps he takes another step forward today. Bosque Angel, Heads South, and Charbroiled all exit convincing maiden wins, with the latter two running for new barn that do quite well the first time off a claim.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 6 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 8 Lakerville (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Chiloquin (ML 6-1)
I may later regret not singling Lakerville in this one, as he has come back better than ever after missing all of 2013. But Lakerville's inability so far to win an open stakes does create some concern, and you never know when closers are going to get stuck in traffic; hence the inclusion of Sweet Swap and Zimmer as "A" selections. Chiloquin merits consideration due to his victory over Sweet Swap in Chiloquin's only prior effort charging down the hill.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kid Rollins (ML 3-1)
# 5 A Little Luckier (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Cleverly Beverly (ML 9-2)
# 8 Itsabeautifulday (ML 4-1)
Kid Rollins took the Place at this level last time out, after taking the Show at this level in each of her two starts prior to that. Interesting that she's had Drayden Van Dyke on her back when he was a ten pound apprentice; a seven pound apprentice; and now a five pound apprentice. A Little Luckier drops down for a tag for only the second time in her career, and this is the cheapest that she's ever been offered for sale.
Cleverly Beverly took the Place at this level last time out. Will the seventeenth time be the charm? It could be today if she's willing to come off the pace as she did in a couple of her starts upstate. Itsabeautifulday will be making her first route attempt on real dirt; her pedigree (as expressed by her Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests the extra distance will do her well.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 3,7,9,12 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 3 with 3,5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 6,8 $12.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, April 11, 2014
4/11/14 GG R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following returned to action with a bang Friday. Competing in Race 3 at Golden Gate Fields, an unrestricted (!) $16k Claiming Race, City Chapel (Final Odds 11.40) tracked the pace into the stretch before closing on the leaders to win by half a length, covering the eight furlongs on the synthetic track in 1:39.39. City Chapel's victory was worth $10,200 in purse money to his connections, bringing City Chapel's total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 to $66,555.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Follow Us on Twitter
With great trepidation we've taken yet another step into the 21st Century as we are now on Twitter. For those of you who have never taken the time to look at the URL for this blog, I'm Jimbo Matthews, and you can follow me @Jimbo_on_Tbreds. Exactly what I'll be Tweeting out I don't yet know. Most likely the majority of Tweets will be warnings, errr, notifications of which tracks on which days I intend to play in the near future; alerts that there's a new post here; and updates on how our multi-race plays are faring. As always, I'll be looking forward to hearing what all of you have to say.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 6, 2014
4/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Santa Anita Derby - # 5 California Chrome (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Patriots Rule (19.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Seeking the Sherif (3.90) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 Kerrilynn (4.30) - "C" Selection
While not a part of the Late Pick Four sequence, the results of Race 3 - The Echo Eddie Stakes play a key role in understanding Saturday's results; but more on that later. First things first: we had 'em all, but not all together. Had we played our picks caveman style we would have cashed. But, of course, that wasn't really an option; for had we played it caveman style our play would have cost $180, well beyond what we budget for these forays.
No, the issue here isn't ticket structuring but better handicapping. Ironically, our big mistake was in the one race where we had an "A" selection Win. For while we had California Chrome we also had # 3 Hoppertunity (4.40) and # 6 Candy Boy (2.60) on our tickets as "A" selections. In retrospect we should have recognized California Chrome as a standout based upon his field best last out Beyer Speed Figure along with the substantial margin of victory in his prior Wins; a set within which Saturday's five and a quarter length triumph fits right in. Had we acknowledged such prior to the start of the sequence, we just might have found ourselves cashing tickets when the last leg was official.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Getting back to why I brought up The Echo Eddie Stakes: the results of that contest are key to appreciating that California Chrome was not simply taking advantage of an early speed bias on a dirt track that is known to more than occasionally favor frontrunners, especially on big event days. The Echo Eddie Stakes, run earlier in the afternoon over the same dirt track as The Santa Anita Derby, had the following Trifecta:
WIN: # 5 Alert Bay (9.10)
PLACE: # 8 Life Is a Joy (7.10)
SHOW: # 3 Well Measured (9.50)
None of those three horses were in the top four at the half mile mark; and (as you can see by the Final Odds) none were especially well regarded by the betting public. So the fact that those three crossed under the wire ahead of all others in Race 3 demonstrates that early speed was not ruling the day at Santa Anita Saturday. Incidentally, congratulations to all who had that Trifecta and collected $359.90 for the one dollar wager.
Congratulations also to those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 11 / 6 / 12 along with its payout of $897.50 for the fifty cent wager. May God bless you as you spend your winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 11 Patriots Rule (19.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Seeking the Sherif (3.90) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 Kerrilynn (4.30) - "C" Selection
While not a part of the Late Pick Four sequence, the results of Race 3 - The Echo Eddie Stakes play a key role in understanding Saturday's results; but more on that later. First things first: we had 'em all, but not all together. Had we played our picks caveman style we would have cashed. But, of course, that wasn't really an option; for had we played it caveman style our play would have cost $180, well beyond what we budget for these forays.
No, the issue here isn't ticket structuring but better handicapping. Ironically, our big mistake was in the one race where we had an "A" selection Win. For while we had California Chrome we also had # 3 Hoppertunity (4.40) and # 6 Candy Boy (2.60) on our tickets as "A" selections. In retrospect we should have recognized California Chrome as a standout based upon his field best last out Beyer Speed Figure along with the substantial margin of victory in his prior Wins; a set within which Saturday's five and a quarter length triumph fits right in. Had we acknowledged such prior to the start of the sequence, we just might have found ourselves cashing tickets when the last leg was official.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Getting back to why I brought up The Echo Eddie Stakes: the results of that contest are key to appreciating that California Chrome was not simply taking advantage of an early speed bias on a dirt track that is known to more than occasionally favor frontrunners, especially on big event days. The Echo Eddie Stakes, run earlier in the afternoon over the same dirt track as The Santa Anita Derby, had the following Trifecta:
WIN: # 5 Alert Bay (9.10)
PLACE: # 8 Life Is a Joy (7.10)
SHOW: # 3 Well Measured (9.50)
None of those three horses were in the top four at the half mile mark; and (as you can see by the Final Odds) none were especially well regarded by the betting public. So the fact that those three crossed under the wire ahead of all others in Race 3 demonstrates that early speed was not ruling the day at Santa Anita Saturday. Incidentally, congratulations to all who had that Trifecta and collected $359.90 for the one dollar wager.
Congratulations also to those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 11 / 6 / 12 along with its payout of $897.50 for the fifty cent wager. May God bless you as you spend your winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 5, 2014
4/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Santa Anita Derby Day in SoCal. Since we're pressed for time I'll apologize now for the sparse analysis to follow.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Hoppertunity (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 6-5)
# 6 Candy Boy (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Can't choose between the three top contenders, so I'm just using them all. Candy Boy is the one that needs to win in order to assure a spot in the gate at the Kentucky Derby.
RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Brave Act (ML 7-2)
# 10 Dancer Humor (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Gallant Charm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tommy O (ML 8-1)
# 11 Patriots Rule (ML 12-1)
Brave Act won at this level on the dirt last out only to get DQ'd. His effort two back while breaking his maiden on this turf course should be good enough to get the job done today. Dance Humor has looked good in his two prior career starts running on some California grass. Gallant Charm has the talent but is camera shy; otherwise he would be listed as an "A".
RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Toledo Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 4 Explain (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 3 Too Fast to Pass (ML 8-1)
# 6 Seeking the Sherif (ML 6-1)
Toledo Eddie takes a step up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures are good enough and his margins of victory indicate he's proven all he can on the lower levels. Explain was purchased for $62k his last time out and is now less than two months later being offered for $40k; not a move that inspires a lot of confidence, but it's not unheard of for connections to hope for a quick purse to cash in quick on their investment.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Creditcardroulette (ML 6-1)
# 2 Indygo F M A (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deity (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 7 I'm Tops (ML 4-1)
# 12 Kerrilynn (ML 6-1)
Joeandbetty'sbaby defeated more expensive stock charging down this hill back in December; she'll appreciate the class relief here. I doubt if anyone in this field can run late the way Joeandbetty'sbaby can; but it's a large field, so I'm using a bunch of backups just in case Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets stuck in traffic.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 10 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 3,5,11 with 1,4 with 10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 3,6 with 10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 1,2,6,7,12 $30.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Hoppertunity (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 6-5)
# 6 Candy Boy (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Can't choose between the three top contenders, so I'm just using them all. Candy Boy is the one that needs to win in order to assure a spot in the gate at the Kentucky Derby.
RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Brave Act (ML 7-2)
# 10 Dancer Humor (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Gallant Charm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tommy O (ML 8-1)
# 11 Patriots Rule (ML 12-1)
Brave Act won at this level on the dirt last out only to get DQ'd. His effort two back while breaking his maiden on this turf course should be good enough to get the job done today. Dance Humor has looked good in his two prior career starts running on some California grass. Gallant Charm has the talent but is camera shy; otherwise he would be listed as an "A".
RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Toledo Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 4 Explain (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 3 Too Fast to Pass (ML 8-1)
# 6 Seeking the Sherif (ML 6-1)
Toledo Eddie takes a step up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures are good enough and his margins of victory indicate he's proven all he can on the lower levels. Explain was purchased for $62k his last time out and is now less than two months later being offered for $40k; not a move that inspires a lot of confidence, but it's not unheard of for connections to hope for a quick purse to cash in quick on their investment.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Creditcardroulette (ML 6-1)
# 2 Indygo F M A (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deity (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 7 I'm Tops (ML 4-1)
# 12 Kerrilynn (ML 6-1)
Joeandbetty'sbaby defeated more expensive stock charging down this hill back in December; she'll appreciate the class relief here. I doubt if anyone in this field can run late the way Joeandbetty'sbaby can; but it's a large field, so I'm using a bunch of backups just in case Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets stuck in traffic.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 3,5,11 with 1,4 with 10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 3,6 with 10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 1,2,6,7,12 $30.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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