Race 6 - # 3 Candy Cove (Final Odds 2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Ari Gia (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Sendmethemoney (7.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Satellite Storm (6.70) - "B" Selection
In seven of his eight prior career starts, Sendmethemoney had gone straight to the lead; the one exception coming in his fourth career start, when he was second at first call by just a length. But Saturday Sendmethemoney, after not being quick enough to lead the field out of the gate, dropped back, reset, and came on strong in the stretch to get under the wire in his turf debut just ahead of pacesetter # 3 Saved by Zero (3.80).
Anyway, the takeaway from Saturday's action is that, as is often true in North American horse racing, even in the Breeders' Cup, the place to look for prices is in turf sprints. And as you can see above, that's where the two double digit Win payouts were to be found Saturday; as Sendmethemoney and Satellite Storm combined for a Double that was worth $84.70 for a one dollar wager. As for my play, I had one of those two on the big ticket but not the other; and for that reason, Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $183.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 29, 2019
6/29/19 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Preview
"For the first half of your life, people tell you what you should do; for the second half, they tell you what you should have done." - Richard J. Needham
Grass is where it's at; at least as far as Saturday's play goes, as seventy-five percent of the contests I'll be analyzing are scheduled for the turf. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.
RACE 6 - [S] Clm $25k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Smooth Stroke (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 2 Brysons Confession (ML 6-1)
# 3 Candy Cove (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Drama in Danube (ML 5-2)
# 5 Last Minister (ML 8-1)
# 6 Classy Individual (ML 12-1)
The last time Smooth Stroke competed in a contest limited to Minnesota breds he won by five lengths. Brysons Confession is going first off the claim for Trainer Karl Broberg, who tends to do well with such.
Candy Cove took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, including Last Minister, who is racing above his conditions, having as he does just one lifetime victory.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Ari Gia (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 6 Sierrita (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Team Hollywood (ML 4-1)
# 2 Brechin's Command (ML 2-1)
# 4 Kalliste Rose (ML 8-1)
# 5 Saucy At Midnight (ML 12-1)
Pretty standard conditions for an OC/N2X. For those who track such things, Team Hollywood, Brechin's Command, and Sierrita are the ones competing with the $25k price tag on their heads; while the other half of the field is not up for sale.
Ari Gia returns just seven days after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in the Hoist Her Flag Stakes. Quick turnaround not withstanding, Ari Gia looks to be much the best here; and if Ari Gia repeats any of her last four efforts, she should win comfortably today. Still, as a safeguard against Ari Gia having tired legs, I'm also going to put Sierrita on the big ticket, allowing for the possibility that Sierrita might run down Ari Gia late. The rest of the field is being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Mr. Benz (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Master Guns (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deflater (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Sendmethemoney (ML 5-1)
# 3 Saved by Zero (ML 9-2)
# 5 Agent McGee (ML 10-1)
# 8 Samurai Mike (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 7 World Famous Sam T (ML 12-1), who was entered for the main track only
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Mr. Benz, Saved by Zero, and Samurai Mike are the ones that will be entering the starting gate with the $15k price tag on their heads.
Mr. Benz, trained by Karl Broberg, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts. But in two of those four contests Mr. Benz was behind a next out winner; while in the one victory in that quartet he crossed under the wire in front of one; so Mr. Benz was certainly running well, even in defeat. I expect the competition to be somewhat softer for Mr. Benz here than it has been of late (despite the higher claiming price Saturday); which, combined with the return to the turf, should make Mr. Benz the one to beat here.
Master Guns, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Deflater is trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he should handle it just fine.
RACE 9 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Kota Copy (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Northland Gold (ML 12-1)
# 3 Hotfoot (ML 10-1)
# 5 Marvelous Thunder (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dyna Cat (ML 7-2)
# 7 Superior's Boy (ML 8-1)
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Marvelous Thunder and Dyna Cat are the two in this field that are not up for sale; and if you want to purchase Northland Gold through the claim box it'll cost you $20k, the $5k surcharge being because Northland Gold is a Minnesota bred.
Kota Copy, trained by Robertino Diodoro, has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in both of his last two starts, while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Satellite Storm looks quickest here; and if Satellite Storm takes to the turf, then Satellite Storm will be tough to catch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3 with 3,6 with 2,4,6 with 1,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 2 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,5,8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 2,3,5,6,7 $2.50
Total: $27.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:17 EDT / 1:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Grass is where it's at; at least as far as Saturday's play goes, as seventy-five percent of the contests I'll be analyzing are scheduled for the turf. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.
RACE 6 - [S] Clm $25k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Smooth Stroke (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 2 Brysons Confession (ML 6-1)
# 3 Candy Cove (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Drama in Danube (ML 5-2)
# 5 Last Minister (ML 8-1)
# 6 Classy Individual (ML 12-1)
The last time Smooth Stroke competed in a contest limited to Minnesota breds he won by five lengths. Brysons Confession is going first off the claim for Trainer Karl Broberg, who tends to do well with such.
Candy Cove took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, including Last Minister, who is racing above his conditions, having as he does just one lifetime victory.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Ari Gia (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 6 Sierrita (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Team Hollywood (ML 4-1)
# 2 Brechin's Command (ML 2-1)
# 4 Kalliste Rose (ML 8-1)
# 5 Saucy At Midnight (ML 12-1)
Pretty standard conditions for an OC/N2X. For those who track such things, Team Hollywood, Brechin's Command, and Sierrita are the ones competing with the $25k price tag on their heads; while the other half of the field is not up for sale.
Ari Gia returns just seven days after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in the Hoist Her Flag Stakes. Quick turnaround not withstanding, Ari Gia looks to be much the best here; and if Ari Gia repeats any of her last four efforts, she should win comfortably today. Still, as a safeguard against Ari Gia having tired legs, I'm also going to put Sierrita on the big ticket, allowing for the possibility that Sierrita might run down Ari Gia late. The rest of the field is being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Mr. Benz (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Master Guns (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deflater (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Sendmethemoney (ML 5-1)
# 3 Saved by Zero (ML 9-2)
# 5 Agent McGee (ML 10-1)
# 8 Samurai Mike (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 7 World Famous Sam T (ML 12-1), who was entered for the main track only
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Mr. Benz, Saved by Zero, and Samurai Mike are the ones that will be entering the starting gate with the $15k price tag on their heads.
Mr. Benz, trained by Karl Broberg, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts. But in two of those four contests Mr. Benz was behind a next out winner; while in the one victory in that quartet he crossed under the wire in front of one; so Mr. Benz was certainly running well, even in defeat. I expect the competition to be somewhat softer for Mr. Benz here than it has been of late (despite the higher claiming price Saturday); which, combined with the return to the turf, should make Mr. Benz the one to beat here.
Master Guns, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Deflater is trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he should handle it just fine.
RACE 9 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Kota Copy (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Northland Gold (ML 12-1)
# 3 Hotfoot (ML 10-1)
# 5 Marvelous Thunder (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dyna Cat (ML 7-2)
# 7 Superior's Boy (ML 8-1)
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Marvelous Thunder and Dyna Cat are the two in this field that are not up for sale; and if you want to purchase Northland Gold through the claim box it'll cost you $20k, the $5k surcharge being because Northland Gold is a Minnesota bred.
Kota Copy, trained by Robertino Diodoro, has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in both of his last two starts, while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Satellite Storm looks quickest here; and if Satellite Storm takes to the turf, then Satellite Storm will be tough to catch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3 with 3,6 with 2,4,6 with 1,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 2 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,5,8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 2,3,5,6,7 $2.50
Total: $27.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:17 EDT / 1:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 22, 2019
6/22/19 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Dark Star Cup - # 3 Chief Cicatriz (Final Odds 1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Sky Promise (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Tapizars Secret (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Ready to Runaway (0.20*) - "A" Selection
I was correct in my assessment in the preview that Chief Cicatriz, winner of the Dark Star Cup, should have been a big ticket single. Too bad that I didn't follow that advice; for had I done so, I would have halved the cost of my main ticket, thus making Saturday's return a profitable one.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Creative Xpression (8.20) - $167.25 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 6 / 6 which paid $44.15 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is somewhat less than my initial investment of $57. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 3 Sky Promise (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Tapizars Secret (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Ready to Runaway (0.20*) - "A" Selection
I was correct in my assessment in the preview that Chief Cicatriz, winner of the Dark Star Cup, should have been a big ticket single. Too bad that I didn't follow that advice; for had I done so, I would have halved the cost of my main ticket, thus making Saturday's return a profitable one.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Creative Xpression (8.20) - $167.25 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 6 / 6 which paid $44.15 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is somewhat less than my initial investment of $57. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/22/19 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Courage is the power to let go of the familiar.” - Raymond Lindquist
It's closing weekend at Santa Anita, which will be followed by the Summer thoroughbred meet at Los Alamitos Race Course. Once again this year, Los Al will be pricing me out of the Pick Four pool with their one dollar minimum. Typically I move my action during their meet to Northern California; but this Summer I wanted to try something different. So for the next few weeks, at least until the Del Mar Summer meet begins, I'll be trying my luck at the racetrack in Shakopee, Minnesota. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.
RACE 8 - The Dark Star Cup $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Chief Cicatriz (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 7 Malibu Max (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Rock City Roadhog (ML 12-1)
# 2 The Tabulator (ML 3-1)
# 4 Cowboy Creed (ML 10-1)
# 5 Hot Shot Kid (ML 7-2)
# 6 Creative Art (ML 8-1)
This contest is one of five stakes on the card celebrating The Mystic Lake Northern Stars Racing Festival. Chief Cicatriz looks to be the clear best here, and probably should be a big ticket single. But I think that there might be enough early speed in this field to soften Chief Cicatriz up so that the contest could fall into the lap of Malibu Max, who appears to be the one that will be running best late. Malibu Max could also benefit from the cutback from route to sprint, a move with which Trainer McLean Robertson tends to do well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - OC 35k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Malibu Pro (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Moon Over Montana (ML 2-1)
# 3 Sky Promise (ML 10-1)
# 5 Gato Guapo (ML 7-2)
# 7 High Security (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Soul P Say (ML 15-1) and # 6 Conquest Sure Shot (ML 8-1)
The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 35k N4L is that runners who have yet to win two races in 2019 can be entered here without fear of being claimed. Note for the record that, with the scratch of Conquest Sure Shot, no one in this field will be running with a price tag on their head.
I did not originally plan to put everyone on the big ticket in this contest; indeed, I was going to leave Soul P Say, Conquest Sure Shot, and High Security off my main play. But with Soul P Say and Conquest Sure Shot being scratched, I certainly wasn't going to put in a multi-race wager where I was going "ALL but one" for one of the legs. So for that reason High Security gets upgraded from a backup "C" Selection to a spot on the big ticket; and no matter what else happens, I'm guaranteed to have at least one leg right this evening.
RACE 10 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Tapizars Secret (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Western Ridge (ML 6-1)
# 2 Snoose Goose (ML 7-2)
# 3 Sedaris (ML 10-1)
# 7 Lieutenant Powell (ML 9-2)
C's
# 4 Marshall Hill (ML 12-1)
# 5 Outfitter (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tonka Flower (ML 5-1)
Tapizars Secret took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit over the turf course. Tapizars Secret and Snoose Goose, who is making his 2019 debut, look the be the quickest among the experienced runners.
Lieutenant Powell could benefit from the cutback in real estate. Western Ridge and Sedaris are a pair of first time starters in a field that seems to lack a true standout. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] Clm $25k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Ready to Runaway (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Creative Xpression (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Hash Brown (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ms Comedy Time (ML 10-1)
# 4 Wild Desire (ML 5-1)
# 5 Mrs. D's Concerto (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 7 Lila's Lucky Lady (ML 7-2)
Ready to Runaway drops in class after taking the Place against state-bred Allowance company in each of her last two contests. Creative Xpression took the Show at this class level last time out.
Hash Brown is one you might want to consider giving greater prominence in your play than I am giving in mine; as Hash Brown gave a fine performance while winning her debut last time out. Personally I think Hash Brown is a bit over matched here in her first try again winners; but if you're looking to get out with a long shot in the nightcap, Hash Brown just might give you what you need. Anyway, as for me, I'll be using Hash Brown as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 6 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7 with 3,6 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6 with 1 with 6 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 4,5,8 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 6 with 1,2,4,5 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 9:58 EDT / 6:58 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
It's closing weekend at Santa Anita, which will be followed by the Summer thoroughbred meet at Los Alamitos Race Course. Once again this year, Los Al will be pricing me out of the Pick Four pool with their one dollar minimum. Typically I move my action during their meet to Northern California; but this Summer I wanted to try something different. So for the next few weeks, at least until the Del Mar Summer meet begins, I'll be trying my luck at the racetrack in Shakopee, Minnesota. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.
RACE 8 - The Dark Star Cup $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Chief Cicatriz (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 7 Malibu Max (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Rock City Roadhog (ML 12-1)
# 2 The Tabulator (ML 3-1)
# 4 Cowboy Creed (ML 10-1)
# 5 Hot Shot Kid (ML 7-2)
# 6 Creative Art (ML 8-1)
This contest is one of five stakes on the card celebrating The Mystic Lake Northern Stars Racing Festival. Chief Cicatriz looks to be the clear best here, and probably should be a big ticket single. But I think that there might be enough early speed in this field to soften Chief Cicatriz up so that the contest could fall into the lap of Malibu Max, who appears to be the one that will be running best late. Malibu Max could also benefit from the cutback from route to sprint, a move with which Trainer McLean Robertson tends to do well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - OC 35k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Malibu Pro (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Moon Over Montana (ML 2-1)
# 3 Sky Promise (ML 10-1)
# 5 Gato Guapo (ML 7-2)
# 7 High Security (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Soul P Say (ML 15-1) and # 6 Conquest Sure Shot (ML 8-1)
The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 35k N4L is that runners who have yet to win two races in 2019 can be entered here without fear of being claimed. Note for the record that, with the scratch of Conquest Sure Shot, no one in this field will be running with a price tag on their head.
I did not originally plan to put everyone on the big ticket in this contest; indeed, I was going to leave Soul P Say, Conquest Sure Shot, and High Security off my main play. But with Soul P Say and Conquest Sure Shot being scratched, I certainly wasn't going to put in a multi-race wager where I was going "ALL but one" for one of the legs. So for that reason High Security gets upgraded from a backup "C" Selection to a spot on the big ticket; and no matter what else happens, I'm guaranteed to have at least one leg right this evening.
RACE 10 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Tapizars Secret (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Western Ridge (ML 6-1)
# 2 Snoose Goose (ML 7-2)
# 3 Sedaris (ML 10-1)
# 7 Lieutenant Powell (ML 9-2)
C's
# 4 Marshall Hill (ML 12-1)
# 5 Outfitter (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tonka Flower (ML 5-1)
Tapizars Secret took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit over the turf course. Tapizars Secret and Snoose Goose, who is making his 2019 debut, look the be the quickest among the experienced runners.
Lieutenant Powell could benefit from the cutback in real estate. Western Ridge and Sedaris are a pair of first time starters in a field that seems to lack a true standout. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] Clm $25k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Ready to Runaway (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Creative Xpression (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Hash Brown (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ms Comedy Time (ML 10-1)
# 4 Wild Desire (ML 5-1)
# 5 Mrs. D's Concerto (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 7 Lila's Lucky Lady (ML 7-2)
Ready to Runaway drops in class after taking the Place against state-bred Allowance company in each of her last two contests. Creative Xpression took the Show at this class level last time out.
Hash Brown is one you might want to consider giving greater prominence in your play than I am giving in mine; as Hash Brown gave a fine performance while winning her debut last time out. Personally I think Hash Brown is a bit over matched here in her first try again winners; but if you're looking to get out with a long shot in the nightcap, Hash Brown just might give you what you need. Anyway, as for me, I'll be using Hash Brown as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 6 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7 with 3,6 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6 with 1 with 6 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 4,5,8 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 6 with 1,2,4,5 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 9:58 EDT / 6:58 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, June 16, 2019
6/16/19 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Results
Race 4 - # 2 Top Brass (Final Odds 4.70) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Mucho Unusual (2.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Rather Nosy (2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Possibly Perfect - # 8 Lemoona (4.00) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Affirmed - # 6 Mucho Gusto (1.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Tequila Blanco (7.00) - "C" Selection
When playing a Pick Anything (Three, Four, Five, Six) one of the worst things that can happen to your play is that the last horse you drop from your main ticket gets the Win in their particular leg. So in a way I feel somewhat fortunate because, not just one, but rather each of the three "C" Selection victors above were late drops from my primary ticket; for while one wrong decision whether to "use or lose" could lead a player to curse his bad luck, three such decisions are an indication that I simply did not do a good job of handicapping. Trust me, it's much easy to recover psychologically from a loss due to bad decision making than it is from one due to bad luck; though in either case the proper response is:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $3,187.64 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 5 - # 3 Mucho Unusual (2.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Rather Nosy (2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Possibly Perfect - # 8 Lemoona (4.00) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Affirmed - # 6 Mucho Gusto (1.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Tequila Blanco (7.00) - "C" Selection
When playing a Pick Anything (Three, Four, Five, Six) one of the worst things that can happen to your play is that the last horse you drop from your main ticket gets the Win in their particular leg. So in a way I feel somewhat fortunate because, not just one, but rather each of the three "C" Selection victors above were late drops from my primary ticket; for while one wrong decision whether to "use or lose" could lead a player to curse his bad luck, three such decisions are an indication that I simply did not do a good job of handicapping. Trust me, it's much easy to recover psychologically from a loss due to bad decision making than it is from one due to bad luck; though in either case the proper response is:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $3,187.64 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/16/19 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview
“Remember: What dad really wants is a nap. Really.” - Dave Barry
Happy Father's Day all! As a Dad's Day gift to everyone, the good people in Arcadia have decided to make Sunday a mandatory payout day for their Jackpot Pick Six, with a pool that opened with a carryover of $1.2 million, and is excepted to close with a dollar amount well in excess of triple that figure. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 4 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tough But Nice (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Candy Zip (ML 12-1)
# 2 Top Brass (ML 4-1)
# 6 Giddymeister (ML 5-1)
# 7 Puriano (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 American Currency (ML 4-1)
This contest was written as a standard Starter Allowance; so any runner three years old and upward which had started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less either this year or less is eligible to run.
Tough But Nice looks quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Best Two Minutes, victorious in a $12.5k Claimer last time out, could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Mucho Unusual (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 5 All Star Cast (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Ladymidtown (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Out of Balance (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ellie Arroway (ML 5-1)
# 4 Posh Holly (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Strike At Dawn (ML 7-2)
# 7 Velvet Queen (ML 8-1)
Mucho Unusual was victorious last time out in the California Cup Oaks, which was also Mucho Unusual's turf debut. Ladymidtown and All Star Cast (Ire) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Look for Ladymidtown early, while All Star Cast projects to be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tapitha Bonita (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Rather Nosy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Smiling Rose (ML 5-1)
# 2 Gadot (ML 12-1)
# 4 Starza (ML 5-1)
# 6 Princess Dorian (ML 10-1)
# 7 Convince (ML 3-1)
This contest was written with some imagination, as it's for fillies and mares which have started for a claiming price of $50k or less (okay; so far like a normal Starter Allowance) AND which have never won a race either than Maiden, Claiming, or State Bred Allowance. So stakes winners, open company (non-state bred restricted) allowance winners, and prior Starter Allowance winners are excluded.
Tapitha Bonita, going third off the layoff and getting some significant class relief, could be a single here, for those seeking to either cut the cost of the main ticket in half, or spread deeper in other legs. But I'm including Rather Nosy on my main ticket because I think Rather Nosy could improve off the freshening. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Possibly Perfect $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Mirth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Confidentially (ML 12-1)
# 6 Pulpit Rider (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lemoona (ML 7-1)
Scratch # 7 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Pantsonfire won the Grade 3 Astra last time out rather easily. Zaffinah (Ire) could be loose on the lead early in a field that doesn't feature a lot of early speed.
Mirth, making her stakes debut for Trainer Phil D'Amato, seems to fit well with the contenders here. Lynn's Legacy finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two contests, both Graded Stakes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Affirmed (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Roadster (ML 6-5)
B's
# 4 Kingly (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mucho Gusto (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Visitant (ML 4-1)
# 2 Always Forgiven (ML 12-1)
# 3 Manhattan Up (ML 12-1)
Happy Father's Day all! As a Dad's Day gift to everyone, the good people in Arcadia have decided to make Sunday a mandatory payout day for their Jackpot Pick Six, with a pool that opened with a carryover of $1.2 million, and is excepted to close with a dollar amount well in excess of triple that figure. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 4 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tough But Nice (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Candy Zip (ML 12-1)
# 2 Top Brass (ML 4-1)
# 6 Giddymeister (ML 5-1)
# 7 Puriano (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 American Currency (ML 4-1)
This contest was written as a standard Starter Allowance; so any runner three years old and upward which had started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less either this year or less is eligible to run.
Tough But Nice looks quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Best Two Minutes, victorious in a $12.5k Claimer last time out, could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Mucho Unusual (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 5 All Star Cast (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Ladymidtown (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Out of Balance (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ellie Arroway (ML 5-1)
# 4 Posh Holly (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Strike At Dawn (ML 7-2)
# 7 Velvet Queen (ML 8-1)
Mucho Unusual was victorious last time out in the California Cup Oaks, which was also Mucho Unusual's turf debut. Ladymidtown and All Star Cast (Ire) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Look for Ladymidtown early, while All Star Cast projects to be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tapitha Bonita (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Rather Nosy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Smiling Rose (ML 5-1)
# 2 Gadot (ML 12-1)
# 4 Starza (ML 5-1)
# 6 Princess Dorian (ML 10-1)
# 7 Convince (ML 3-1)
This contest was written with some imagination, as it's for fillies and mares which have started for a claiming price of $50k or less (okay; so far like a normal Starter Allowance) AND which have never won a race either than Maiden, Claiming, or State Bred Allowance. So stakes winners, open company (non-state bred restricted) allowance winners, and prior Starter Allowance winners are excluded.
Tapitha Bonita, going third off the layoff and getting some significant class relief, could be a single here, for those seeking to either cut the cost of the main ticket in half, or spread deeper in other legs. But I'm including Rather Nosy on my main ticket because I think Rather Nosy could improve off the freshening. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Possibly Perfect $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Mirth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Confidentially (ML 12-1)
# 6 Pulpit Rider (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lemoona (ML 7-1)
Scratch # 7 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Pantsonfire won the Grade 3 Astra last time out rather easily. Zaffinah (Ire) could be loose on the lead early in a field that doesn't feature a lot of early speed.
Mirth, making her stakes debut for Trainer Phil D'Amato, seems to fit well with the contenders here. Lynn's Legacy finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two contests, both Graded Stakes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Affirmed (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Roadster (ML 6-5)
B's
# 4 Kingly (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mucho Gusto (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Visitant (ML 4-1)
# 2 Always Forgiven (ML 12-1)
# 3 Manhattan Up (ML 12-1)
Exactly half this field is trained by Bob Baffert; and rather than try to choose from among them, I'll be using all three of those runners on my main ticket, with all others being employed as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Forecheck (ML 5-1)
B's
# 8 Boru (ML 2-1)
# 10 Zorich (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Ohtani (ML 6-1)
# 2 Mongolian Hero (ML 20-1)
# 3 Indy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 2 Mongolian Hero (ML 20-1)
# 3 Indy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 4 King Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 20-1)
# 6 Seven Oxen (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tequila Blanco (ML 4-1)
Forecheck has taken the Show at this class level in both of his two career starts. Boru has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three starts. Zorich took the Show at this class level two starts back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 4,5 with 3,5,8 with 3,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 4,5,6 with 7,8,10 $86.40
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,6,7 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 3,6,8 with 5 with 7 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 1,2,3 with 7 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11 $1.60
Total: $93.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:55 EDT / 2:55 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 8, 2019
6/8/19 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Woody Stephens - # 8 Hog Creek Hustle (Final Odds 18.90) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 3 Mitole (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 8 Bricks and Mortar (0.65*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes - # 7 Sir Winston (10.20) - "C" Selection
With the exception of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan, Saturday was not a good day for my "A" Selections, especially in the first two contests; as # 2 McKinzie (1.65*) got stuck in big city traffic in the Metropolitan; which followed a first leg in which # 9 Mind Control (3.30) became yet one more victim of a New York mugging who discovered that the authorities weren't all that interested in punishing the perpetrators.
Still, I have no one but myself to blame for not having the winner of the main event, as Sir Winston simply ran basically the same race in the Belmont as he had last time out while taking the Place in the Peter Pan; except Sir Winston was much closer to the rail Saturday than he was in that earlier contest, which combined with the added distance to allow him to get up and win the Belmont Stakes.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Belmont Stakes Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,118.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 3 Mitole (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 8 Bricks and Mortar (0.65*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes - # 7 Sir Winston (10.20) - "C" Selection
With the exception of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan, Saturday was not a good day for my "A" Selections, especially in the first two contests; as # 2 McKinzie (1.65*) got stuck in big city traffic in the Metropolitan; which followed a first leg in which # 9 Mind Control (3.30) became yet one more victim of a New York mugging who discovered that the authorities weren't all that interested in punishing the perpetrators.
Still, I have no one but myself to blame for not having the winner of the main event, as Sir Winston simply ran basically the same race in the Belmont as he had last time out while taking the Place in the Peter Pan; except Sir Winston was much closer to the rail Saturday than he was in that earlier contest, which combined with the added distance to allow him to get up and win the Belmont Stakes.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Belmont Stakes Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,118.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/19 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview
Forty-five years ago today, June 8, 1974, Little Current, who had finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby, became one of what is now eighteen runners to win the Preakness and the Belmont, but not the Triple Crown:
Saturday War of Will, winner of this year's Preakness Stakes after having crossed under the wire eighth in the Derby, will be seeking to join that group in the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Needless to say I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Woody Stephens (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Mind Control (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Honest Mischief (ML 6-1)
# 4 Complexity (ML 4-1)
# 11 Wendell Fong (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Much Better (ML 5-1)
# 3 Borracho (ML 15-1)
# 5 Landeskog (ML 12-1)
# 6 Nitrous (ML 10-1)
# 7 Strike Silver (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 20-1)
# 10 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
Mind Control should probably be a big ticket single here, a line that I may be repeating later this afternoon. But Mind Control typically does not run his best off a freshening, his victory in his initial contest this year being the one exception. So for that reason, it seemed like a good idea for me to spread a bit here.
Honest Mischief looks to be the one that will be running best late. Complexity, making his 2019 debut, projects to be a pace presence early, and appears well meant here. Wendell Fong won comfortably last time out in a race where he didn't appear to be at his best. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 McKenzie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Mitole (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 4 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tale of Silence (ML 30-1)
# 6 Promises Fulfilled (ML 12-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Prince Lucky (ML 12-1)
No surprises here as I land on the two shortest prices in the field, as I think these two are clearly better than the rest of the competition. Firenze Fire is one that you might want to consider adding to your main play, as Firenze Fire certainly has an affinity for this main track. But ultimately I decided to play my hand with just McKenzie and Mitole, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Bricks and Mortar (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Olympico (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 2 Catcho En Die (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Cat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bandua (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Epical (ML 15-1)
Bricks and Mortar could possibly be a single here; though I think it's worth considering that Bricks and Mortar's last defeat was also the last time that he competed over this inner turf course.
Qurbaan, a half length behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out, has the talent to win here; though Qurbaan does seem to settle for too many minor awards. Olympico (Fr) was a clear winner over this turf course last time out in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Channel Maker is a multiple Grade 1 winner who may need more distance to show his best. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Tax (ML 15-1)
B's
# 9 War of Will (ML 2-1)
# 10 Tacitus (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Joevia (ML 30-1)
# 2 Everfast (ML 12-1)
# 3 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 8-1)
Saturday War of Will, winner of this year's Preakness Stakes after having crossed under the wire eighth in the Derby, will be seeking to join that group in the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Needless to say I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Woody Stephens (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Mind Control (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Honest Mischief (ML 6-1)
# 4 Complexity (ML 4-1)
# 11 Wendell Fong (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Much Better (ML 5-1)
# 3 Borracho (ML 15-1)
# 5 Landeskog (ML 12-1)
# 6 Nitrous (ML 10-1)
# 7 Strike Silver (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 20-1)
# 10 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
Mind Control should probably be a big ticket single here, a line that I may be repeating later this afternoon. But Mind Control typically does not run his best off a freshening, his victory in his initial contest this year being the one exception. So for that reason, it seemed like a good idea for me to spread a bit here.
Honest Mischief looks to be the one that will be running best late. Complexity, making his 2019 debut, projects to be a pace presence early, and appears well meant here. Wendell Fong won comfortably last time out in a race where he didn't appear to be at his best. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 McKenzie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Mitole (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 4 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tale of Silence (ML 30-1)
# 6 Promises Fulfilled (ML 12-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Prince Lucky (ML 12-1)
No surprises here as I land on the two shortest prices in the field, as I think these two are clearly better than the rest of the competition. Firenze Fire is one that you might want to consider adding to your main play, as Firenze Fire certainly has an affinity for this main track. But ultimately I decided to play my hand with just McKenzie and Mitole, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Bricks and Mortar (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Olympico (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 2 Catcho En Die (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Cat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bandua (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Epical (ML 15-1)
Bricks and Mortar could possibly be a single here; though I think it's worth considering that Bricks and Mortar's last defeat was also the last time that he competed over this inner turf course.
Qurbaan, a half length behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out, has the talent to win here; though Qurbaan does seem to settle for too many minor awards. Olympico (Fr) was a clear winner over this turf course last time out in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Channel Maker is a multiple Grade 1 winner who may need more distance to show his best. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Tax (ML 15-1)
B's
# 9 War of Will (ML 2-1)
# 10 Tacitus (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Joevia (ML 30-1)
# 2 Everfast (ML 12-1)
# 3 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bourbon War (ML 12-1)
# 6 Spinoff (ML 15-1)
# 7 Sir Winston (ML 12-1)
# 8 Intrepid Heart (ML 10-1)
If it turns out that Tax just didn't care for the slop in the Kentucky Derby, then Tax should revert to form Saturday as the track will be Fast; and the added distance combined with a better timed run could get him to the line in front of Tacitus.
I didn't much care for War of Will in the Preakness; because while I felt that he was comprised in the Kentucky Derby, I don't think he would have finished significantly better in that contest; and even if you put a line through the Kentucky Derby, you also have to forgive his performance in the Louisiana Derby. But War of Will's Preakness win does prove that this is a horse to be reckoned with.
Tacitus is probably the best horse in this field; though it may be significant that he did not hit the board in his only prior contest over this main track. Or it may not; as it was his debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,9,11 with 2,3 with 4,7,8,10 with 4,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 2 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 $3.50
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:04 EDT / 1:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 1, 2019
6/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 King Jack (Final Odds 2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Honeymoon - # 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 5 La Force (Ger) (5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Jaccat (3.40) - "A" Selection
In the preview, I mentioned one of the drawbacks of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you're practically guaranteeing that you won't be collecting a large payout if they win. Of course, an even bigger drawback of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you won't be collecting at all if they don't win; and that's what happened Saturday, as # 2 Paradise Woods (0.20*) bobbled at the start, had to wait behind horses until coming out widest in the stretch, and then was a little over a length too late in getting under the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $373.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Honeymoon - # 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 5 La Force (Ger) (5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Jaccat (3.40) - "A" Selection
In the preview, I mentioned one of the drawbacks of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you're practically guaranteeing that you won't be collecting a large payout if they win. Of course, an even bigger drawback of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you won't be collecting at all if they don't win; and that's what happened Saturday, as # 2 Paradise Woods (0.20*) bobbled at the start, had to wait behind horses until coming out widest in the stretch, and then was a little over a length too late in getting under the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $373.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"If a June night could talk, it would probably boast that it invented romance." - Bern Williams
Welcome to June; which, I am told, is named for Juno, the Roman goddess of love and marriage. That being the case, what better time to run the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes; one of a pair of Graded Stakes that I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Morning Snow (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Moana Luna (ML 12-1)
# 3 Music to My Ears (ML 3-1)
# 4 King Jack (ML 4-1)
# 5 Canadian Luck (ML 8-1)
# 7 On Easy Street (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Dinesen (ML 10-1)
# 8 Alfonso C (ML 50-1)
Morning Snow, Moana Luna, King Jack, and Canadian Luck are the four first time starters in this event (Alfonso C may or may not also be a first time starter, depending upon how you view quarter horse contests). Anyway, in race where the experienced runners are something less than impressive, I've decided to lean heavily on the debut starters. Morning Snow gets the nod as my "A" Selection courtesy of being trained by Bob Baffert, who tends to have his chargers ready to go at first asking.
Music to My Ears and On Easy Street are the two experienced runners that I'll be using. Both have taken the Place at this class level; but Music to My Ears' Place finish was on the turf; while On Easy Street was seven lengths back of the winner when he took the number two spot. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Honeymoon (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Seranitsa (ML 6-1)
# 6 Maxim Rate (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Over Emphasize (ML 6-1)
# 4 Holly Hundy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dr Wysong (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Sold It (ML 10-1)
Hostess (GB), Maxim Rate, and Lady Prancealot (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Providencia two starts back; a contest which was run at today's distance of nine furlongs.
Seranitsa is the new shooter in the field, shipping in from the East and moving to the barn of Trainer Neil Drysdale. Seranitsa has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her turf starts, including a Show finish in a Listed Stakes last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Paradise Woods (ML 1-5)
B's
None
C's
Welcome to June; which, I am told, is named for Juno, the Roman goddess of love and marriage. That being the case, what better time to run the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes; one of a pair of Graded Stakes that I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Morning Snow (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Moana Luna (ML 12-1)
# 3 Music to My Ears (ML 3-1)
# 4 King Jack (ML 4-1)
# 5 Canadian Luck (ML 8-1)
# 7 On Easy Street (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Dinesen (ML 10-1)
# 8 Alfonso C (ML 50-1)
Morning Snow, Moana Luna, King Jack, and Canadian Luck are the four first time starters in this event (Alfonso C may or may not also be a first time starter, depending upon how you view quarter horse contests). Anyway, in race where the experienced runners are something less than impressive, I've decided to lean heavily on the debut starters. Morning Snow gets the nod as my "A" Selection courtesy of being trained by Bob Baffert, who tends to have his chargers ready to go at first asking.
Music to My Ears and On Easy Street are the two experienced runners that I'll be using. Both have taken the Place at this class level; but Music to My Ears' Place finish was on the turf; while On Easy Street was seven lengths back of the winner when he took the number two spot. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Honeymoon (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Seranitsa (ML 6-1)
# 6 Maxim Rate (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Over Emphasize (ML 6-1)
# 4 Holly Hundy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dr Wysong (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Sold It (ML 10-1)
Hostess (GB), Maxim Rate, and Lady Prancealot (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Providencia two starts back; a contest which was run at today's distance of nine furlongs.
Seranitsa is the new shooter in the field, shipping in from the East and moving to the barn of Trainer Neil Drysdale. Seranitsa has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her turf starts, including a Show finish in a Listed Stakes last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Paradise Woods (ML 1-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Just a Smidge (ML 15-1)
# 3 Exuberance (ML 15-1)
# 4 Tapped (ML 8-1)
# 5 La Force (Ger) (ML 4-1)
Singling a 1-5 shot is a pretty good way to guarantee that you won't be collecting an astronomical payout. Conversely, playing against an obvious standout is a pretty good way to guarantee that you won't be collecting at all. Paradise Woods is obviously the best in this field; and it's really not all that close. Mind you, the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that's the way to bet (thank you, Damon Runyon).
RACE 9 - (F) Md $75k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Jaccat (ML 3-1)
B's
# 5 Apples Arch (ML 7-2)
# 7 Cherished (ML 5-1)
# 10 Pricing (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Stop Analyzing (ML 8-1)
# 2 Mongolian Midnight (ML 20-1)
# 3 Queen of Mean (ML 6-1)
# 6 Tell It Again (ML 10-1)
# 8 Malibu Minx (ML 20-1)
# 13 Champagne Honey (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 4 Acadia Fleet (ML 50-1); # 11 What's Bruin (ML 6-1); # 12 Equal Measure (ML 4-1); and # 14 Fashion Dream (ML 15-1). Bring in # 13 Champagne Honey (ML 15-1).
Jaccat took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track. Apples Arch could improve going second off the layoff. Cherished could move up with the surface switch. Pricing may have moved too soon last time out in her debut, and could benefit from the experience. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 8 with 2 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1,3,6,8 with 2 with 5,7,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 8 with 2 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,5 with 2 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 8 with 1,3,4,5 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 8 with 2 with 1,2,3,6,8,13 $3.00
Total: $56.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:33 EDT / 3:33 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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