City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following, was back on the track Friday at Golden Gate Fields. This was City Chapel's first start since his victory back on February 28; his first win for the Trujillo barn. That victory was also City Chapel's second career win; meaning that the four year gelding is no longer eligible to compete in the non-winners of two lifetime races in which he had been running.
Today's event therefore was a step up in class for City Chapel in terms of career achievements (non-winners of three lifetime), and also in terms of claiming price ($10,000 vs the Feb 28 price tag of $6250). Today was also a stretch out for City Chapel, as the Feb 28 win had come at a distance of five and a half furlongs, while today's race was a mile in length.
So, stepping up in class and stretching out in distance, City Chapel, to put it kindly, did not perform well. Leaving the gate at Final Odds of 11.80, City Chapel, in the words of the chart caller, "had no speed" and "failed to menace." City Chapel finished sixth in the field of eight, a comfortable nine lengths behind the winner, Go Clever ($15.00 / $5.40 / $3.40).
While City Chapel's effort today may be viewed as disappointing, he has done quite well for his connections since being claimed back in August. Including today's event, City Chapel's purse winnings for Trujillo total $15,325; not bad for a horse that was purchased for $4,000, out of a race in which he went to post at Final Odds of nearly 30-1.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF version of events may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, March 29, 2013
Thursday, March 28, 2013
3/28/13 SA R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We continue to follow the saga of Paralyzing Eyes, the four year old filly trained by Bruce Jackson. We noted that her last time out, on January 11 was her first time running for a tag, being put into a $20,000 Maiden Claiming event. Thursday Paralyzing Eyes made her second start of 2013, staying at the same class level ($20k Md Clm) for a five furlong sprint.
Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 19.90) did show some early foot, being just a length behind the leader at first call. But it was all downhill from there, as Paralyzing Eyes steadily lost ground, eventually finishing fifth, a little less than ten lengths behind the winner, Post Time Favorite (and first time starter) Suances Luck.
So Paralyzing Eyes remains a maiden, as her record falls to oh-for-six. Certainly the early foot she showed today has to be seen as a positive to her connections; though that could have as much to do with this being a rather weak field for the level (three of the eight who went to post were first time starters; only one of the five horses in the field who had raced previously finished in the money their last time out).
So what comes next? Do her connections give Paralyzing Eyes another shot at this level? Or do they drop her even further down the class ladder, thus increasing the possibility of losing her to a claim? Stay tuned, and I promise I'll do my best to keep you posted.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while those who prefer their charts DRF style can view that one here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 19.90) did show some early foot, being just a length behind the leader at first call. But it was all downhill from there, as Paralyzing Eyes steadily lost ground, eventually finishing fifth, a little less than ten lengths behind the winner, Post Time Favorite (and first time starter) Suances Luck.
So Paralyzing Eyes remains a maiden, as her record falls to oh-for-six. Certainly the early foot she showed today has to be seen as a positive to her connections; though that could have as much to do with this being a rather weak field for the level (three of the eight who went to post were first time starters; only one of the five horses in the field who had raced previously finished in the money their last time out).
So what comes next? Do her connections give Paralyzing Eyes another shot at this level? Or do they drop her even further down the class ladder, thus increasing the possibility of losing her to a claim? Stay tuned, and I promise I'll do my best to keep you posted.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while those who prefer their charts DRF style can view that one here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update
Just a reminder that The Road to the Kentucky Derby will this weekend begin its (for all intents and purposes) Win-And-You're-In-And-Place-And-You-May-Be-In-Too series of prep races. These are the events that form the second leg of The Kentucky Derby Championship Series, with point scales of 100-40-20-10; that is, the winner of each race will receive one hundred points; Place is worth forty points; Show is worth twenty points; and finishing fourth is worth ten points. The leader board can be viewed here; as you can see, one hundred points will put any horse right at the top of the standings, while currently only seven horses have more than forty points.
There are seven races in this series; three of them this Saturday: The UAE Derby; The Florida Derby; and The Louisiana Derby. Next Saturday, April 6, will see two more, with the running of The Wood Memorial in New York and The Santa Anita Derby in California. The final two races in this series, The Arkansas Derby and The Blue Grass Stakes, will go Saturday, April 13.
By the way, this seems as good a time as any to confess that I did put down some money on a Kentucky Derby Future Wager. I had never done this before, because, quite frankly, I think Future Wagers on the Derby are horrible investments. Odds are good that your horse will not make it to the Derby; either because they will be exposed in the preps as not being talented enough to compete against the best three year olds; or because they will be the victim of injury or other happenstance, as was the case with Violence this year, or so many other promising young horses in years past. And even if you should be fortunate enough to see your future book selection make it to post for the Kentucky Derby, there's no guarantee that the odds you took in your future book wager will be better than what you will get on the first Saturday in May.
Yet, despite all the logic against it, I just couldn't resist. I looked at the DRF Past Performances, and I saw that the horse with the best Tomlinson Rating for the ten furlong distance was on the board at approximately 30-1 odds. I can resist a lot of things, but not 30-1 odds on a horse I think has a legitimate chance to win. And so, I put my money down on the Bob Baffert-trained Code West, Place horse in last month's Risen Star Stakes.
Since Code West will be running in this Saturday's Louisiana Derby, I should know before Easter Morning if my wager was foolish, or really foolish. Code West is second choice on the Morning Line at 9-2 (Revolutionary is the Morning Line Favorite at 3-1) for the La Derby. Should Code West win comfortably Saturday and come out of the race well, he will be seen as a legitimate contender in the Kentucky Derby, and the future wager odds will look like a wise investment. On the other hand, should Code West run up the track Saturday, then he probably won't even be in the State of Kentucky on the first Saturday in May; and I will have manged to lose money on a race that has not yet been run.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT March 31, 2013 - Code West finished sixth in the Louisiana Derby, over seven lengths behind the winner, Revolutionary.
Yeah, that was a really foolish bet. Oh well; onto the next race. - Jimbo
There are seven races in this series; three of them this Saturday: The UAE Derby; The Florida Derby; and The Louisiana Derby. Next Saturday, April 6, will see two more, with the running of The Wood Memorial in New York and The Santa Anita Derby in California. The final two races in this series, The Arkansas Derby and The Blue Grass Stakes, will go Saturday, April 13.
By the way, this seems as good a time as any to confess that I did put down some money on a Kentucky Derby Future Wager. I had never done this before, because, quite frankly, I think Future Wagers on the Derby are horrible investments. Odds are good that your horse will not make it to the Derby; either because they will be exposed in the preps as not being talented enough to compete against the best three year olds; or because they will be the victim of injury or other happenstance, as was the case with Violence this year, or so many other promising young horses in years past. And even if you should be fortunate enough to see your future book selection make it to post for the Kentucky Derby, there's no guarantee that the odds you took in your future book wager will be better than what you will get on the first Saturday in May.
Yet, despite all the logic against it, I just couldn't resist. I looked at the DRF Past Performances, and I saw that the horse with the best Tomlinson Rating for the ten furlong distance was on the board at approximately 30-1 odds. I can resist a lot of things, but not 30-1 odds on a horse I think has a legitimate chance to win. And so, I put my money down on the Bob Baffert-trained Code West, Place horse in last month's Risen Star Stakes.
Since Code West will be running in this Saturday's Louisiana Derby, I should know before Easter Morning if my wager was foolish, or really foolish. Code West is second choice on the Morning Line at 9-2 (Revolutionary is the Morning Line Favorite at 3-1) for the La Derby. Should Code West win comfortably Saturday and come out of the race well, he will be seen as a legitimate contender in the Kentucky Derby, and the future wager odds will look like a wise investment. On the other hand, should Code West run up the track Saturday, then he probably won't even be in the State of Kentucky on the first Saturday in May; and I will have manged to lose money on a race that has not yet been run.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT March 31, 2013 - Code West finished sixth in the Louisiana Derby, over seven lengths behind the winner, Revolutionary.
Yeah, that was a really foolish bet. Oh well; onto the next race. - Jimbo
Saturday, March 23, 2013
3/23/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
A mixed bag of results today. Our Rainbow Six ticket at Gulfstream went down in flames right with the very first leg. But if you were clever with the opinions, and used a little imagination, there was definitely profit to be made.
We start with Race 6 which, on the surface, seemed to anoint Gulfstream players as the smartest handicappers on the planet; as they bet # 7 Bella Castani down from a Morning Line of 20-1 to Post Time odds of 3.40, and then watched her win for fun by over four lengths. However, in retrospect Bella Castani was a very logical horse. Her trainer, Eddie Kenneally, was spot on in all the key Trainer Angles: 23% First Time With; 22 % First Turf; 32% Dirt-to-Turf; and 23% 31-60 Days Off. Her Turf/Dst Tomlinson Rating was 372. Her jockey, Jose Lezcano, has won at a 29% clip for this trainer over the past couple of years; that Winning Percentage jumps to 33% when considering just this current meet. So, looking back, it wasn't so much that the Gulfstream Park handicappers were really smart so much as it was that the Morning Line of 20-1 was really dumb; and me not including her on our ticket was a really bad decision on my part.
But things got better in the next leg, as Race 7 saw one of our selections, first time starter # 4 Tiz Thunderful, cross the wire five and a half lengths in front of one of our other selections in this race, # 13 Cindy Carta (6.30). If you were clever enough to throw our three selections into a one dollar Exacta Box, your six dollar investment returned $230.80.
We also had the winner in Race 8, as # 6 Street Secret (2.80) crossed the wire first in a blanket finish that saw the first seven finishers within two lengths of each other. If you were wise enough to play our three selections in Race 7 with our two selections here in a one dollar Double, your six dollar wager brought you back $120.20.
We had absolutely nothing in Race 9, as one of our selections, # 1 Prima Zip (2.50) never threatened and finished fourth; while our other selection, # 10 Affair (2.00) was bumped early, and then failed to fire.
Race 10 - The Pan American Stakes saw our selections finish second (# 3 Ioya Bigtime (5.00)) and third (# 10 Newsdad (1.70)) behind # 9 Twilight Eclipse (5.10), who set a new World Record for a mile and a half on the grass (2:22.63). Fourth Place went to # 5 Belo Acteon (Brz) (9.30). Those top four finishers were the only four horses in the field with a victory at today's distance on the grass; so if you were imaginative enough to box them in a ten cent Superfecta, your $2.40 bet paid $93.08.
Race 11 was a total wipe out, as # 1 Snit Fit (2.00) finished fourth, while # 3 Lovely Dynaformer (6.70) ran eighth. Worth noting is that nobody (no - bod - y) correctly picked the Super High Five; so there will be a carryover in that pool of $5,261.
So while creative usage of our selections today led to some profitable results, the bottom line for our Rainbow Six ticket was just two winners; to which we can only say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those players who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of:
RACE 6: # 7 Bella Castani (3.40)
RACE 7: # 4 Tiz Thunderful (25.50)
RACE 8: # 6 Street Secret (2.80)
RACE 9: # 2 Poised to a Tee (4.30)
RACE 10: # 9 Twilight Eclipse (5.10)
RACE 11: # 2 Cici N Red (4.50)
saw their ten cent wager return $14,904.16. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We start with Race 6 which, on the surface, seemed to anoint Gulfstream players as the smartest handicappers on the planet; as they bet # 7 Bella Castani down from a Morning Line of 20-1 to Post Time odds of 3.40, and then watched her win for fun by over four lengths. However, in retrospect Bella Castani was a very logical horse. Her trainer, Eddie Kenneally, was spot on in all the key Trainer Angles: 23% First Time With; 22 % First Turf; 32% Dirt-to-Turf; and 23% 31-60 Days Off. Her Turf/Dst Tomlinson Rating was 372. Her jockey, Jose Lezcano, has won at a 29% clip for this trainer over the past couple of years; that Winning Percentage jumps to 33% when considering just this current meet. So, looking back, it wasn't so much that the Gulfstream Park handicappers were really smart so much as it was that the Morning Line of 20-1 was really dumb; and me not including her on our ticket was a really bad decision on my part.
But things got better in the next leg, as Race 7 saw one of our selections, first time starter # 4 Tiz Thunderful, cross the wire five and a half lengths in front of one of our other selections in this race, # 13 Cindy Carta (6.30). If you were clever enough to throw our three selections into a one dollar Exacta Box, your six dollar investment returned $230.80.
We also had the winner in Race 8, as # 6 Street Secret (2.80) crossed the wire first in a blanket finish that saw the first seven finishers within two lengths of each other. If you were wise enough to play our three selections in Race 7 with our two selections here in a one dollar Double, your six dollar wager brought you back $120.20.
We had absolutely nothing in Race 9, as one of our selections, # 1 Prima Zip (2.50) never threatened and finished fourth; while our other selection, # 10 Affair (2.00) was bumped early, and then failed to fire.
Race 10 - The Pan American Stakes saw our selections finish second (# 3 Ioya Bigtime (5.00)) and third (# 10 Newsdad (1.70)) behind # 9 Twilight Eclipse (5.10), who set a new World Record for a mile and a half on the grass (2:22.63). Fourth Place went to # 5 Belo Acteon (Brz) (9.30). Those top four finishers were the only four horses in the field with a victory at today's distance on the grass; so if you were imaginative enough to box them in a ten cent Superfecta, your $2.40 bet paid $93.08.
Race 11 was a total wipe out, as # 1 Snit Fit (2.00) finished fourth, while # 3 Lovely Dynaformer (6.70) ran eighth. Worth noting is that nobody (no - bod - y) correctly picked the Super High Five; so there will be a carryover in that pool of $5,261.
So while creative usage of our selections today led to some profitable results, the bottom line for our Rainbow Six ticket was just two winners; to which we can only say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those players who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of:
RACE 6: # 7 Bella Castani (3.40)
RACE 7: # 4 Tiz Thunderful (25.50)
RACE 8: # 6 Street Secret (2.80)
RACE 9: # 2 Poised to a Tee (4.30)
RACE 10: # 9 Twilight Eclipse (5.10)
RACE 11: # 2 Cici N Red (4.50)
saw their ten cent wager return $14,904.16. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
3/23/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
As I type this, the skies are cloudy at Gulfstream Park; but the track is fast and the turf is firm, and if this ticket comes through for us it will all be sunshine and rainbows.
RACE 6
# 2 Wine Burglar (Morning Line 7-2) has made steady progress in her three career starts, as evidenced by her Beyer Speed Figures (56 / 61 / 69). Since that 69 came over two months ago, it's not unreasonable to presume that this three year old filly will have grown some over that time, and should therefore improve on that mark.
# 1 Galloping Giraffe (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Todd Pletcher; note that Pletcher connects more than a third of the time with debuters. Pletcher doesn't have his go-to guy here to take the mount, as Johnny V is riding for him at Turfway Park today. First choice to sub was Joe Rocco Jr; but Rocco is off all his scheduled mounts today; so Edgar Prado will be on board.
RACE 7
# 1 One Tough Cowgirl (ML 3-1) took the Place at this level in her debut last month at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing almost six lengths in front of the Show horse, Josh's Butta Butta, who won at the MSW level her next time out.
# 4 Tiz Thunderful (ML 12-1) is by a sire (Tiz Wonderful) whose offspring win 18% of their debuts; and that's just too tempting to let go by, even if conditioner Manuel Estevez shows zero-for-ten with first time starters.
# 13 Cindy Cata (ML 5-1) draws in from the Also Eligible list. She's finished in the money her last two starts (both at this level) and she's quick out of the gate; so she could potentially steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8
# 2 Dame Marie (ML 8-1) looks to be the best of the late runners in a turf affair that shows a lot of early speed. She's two-for-four when running on the Gulfstream grass, and she's been in the Trifecta at this level in two of her last three starts.
# 6 Street Secret (ML 7-2) makes her first North American start, running for a barn that clicks at a 40% rate when tackling such endeavors. Her form shows victories when the grass has been good-to-firm and when it's been soft; so rain or no rain, she should be ready to fire.
RACE 9
# 10 Affair (ML 3-1) just missed at this level two back, finishing a neck behind Won Kool Kid, who would win again his next time out. Unclear why two separate connections have tried to see what Affair would do on the grass; throw those two races out, and you get a much clearer picture of this colt's form.
# 1 Prima Zip (ML 6-1) is another where you would do well to disregard his last effort on the grass; indeed, Prima Zip was vanned off after that turf fiasco, only to come back less than three weeks later to post a bullet work on the Calder dirt. Prima Zip won at this approximate level two back; so a victory here should not surprise.
RACE 10 - The Pan American
First, let me inform you that this is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances by clicking the link, not to mention free video analysis of this race by someone who actually knows what he's talking about, Dan Illman.
# 10 Newsdad (ML 2-1) is last year's winner of this event, and is clearly the horse to beat again this year. However, there are some red flags; this will be her first start since last October; though that bullet work on March 18, coupled with Trainer Bill Mott's .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a few months vacation, would suggest that Newsdad will be ready to fire. Newsdad is also winless on the grass since winning The Pan American last year; though it could be said that has more to do with the ability of Point of Entry, to whom Newsdad lost three times in succession, than with any form deficiencies on Newsdad's part.
# 3 Ioya Bigtime (ML 6-1) has twice won on the turf at today's distance of twelve furlongs, and just missed victory by a neck one other time; all in Graded Stakes events. Jockey Jeffery Sanchez, who was on board for all three of those races, gets the mount again today.
RACE 11
# 1 Snit Fit (ML 7-2) just missed at this level against older her last time out. The 69 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that event is the best career Beyer in this field.
# 3 Lovely Dynaformer (ML 6-1) makes the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming, while also switching to a barn (Edward Plesa Jr.) who connects 38% of the time with that angle. Besides, I've always been a sucker for Dynaformer horses trying to break their maiden while on grass.
So, with all that, our ticket looks like this:
RACE 6: 1 / 2
RACE 7: 1 / 4 / 13
RACE 8: 2 / 6
RACE 9: 1 / 10
RACE 10: 3 / 10
RACE 11: 1 / 3
Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you $9.60.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
# 2 Wine Burglar (Morning Line 7-2) has made steady progress in her three career starts, as evidenced by her Beyer Speed Figures (56 / 61 / 69). Since that 69 came over two months ago, it's not unreasonable to presume that this three year old filly will have grown some over that time, and should therefore improve on that mark.
# 1 Galloping Giraffe (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Todd Pletcher; note that Pletcher connects more than a third of the time with debuters. Pletcher doesn't have his go-to guy here to take the mount, as Johnny V is riding for him at Turfway Park today. First choice to sub was Joe Rocco Jr; but Rocco is off all his scheduled mounts today; so Edgar Prado will be on board.
RACE 7
# 1 One Tough Cowgirl (ML 3-1) took the Place at this level in her debut last month at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing almost six lengths in front of the Show horse, Josh's Butta Butta, who won at the MSW level her next time out.
# 4 Tiz Thunderful (ML 12-1) is by a sire (Tiz Wonderful) whose offspring win 18% of their debuts; and that's just too tempting to let go by, even if conditioner Manuel Estevez shows zero-for-ten with first time starters.
# 13 Cindy Cata (ML 5-1) draws in from the Also Eligible list. She's finished in the money her last two starts (both at this level) and she's quick out of the gate; so she could potentially steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8
# 2 Dame Marie (ML 8-1) looks to be the best of the late runners in a turf affair that shows a lot of early speed. She's two-for-four when running on the Gulfstream grass, and she's been in the Trifecta at this level in two of her last three starts.
# 6 Street Secret (ML 7-2) makes her first North American start, running for a barn that clicks at a 40% rate when tackling such endeavors. Her form shows victories when the grass has been good-to-firm and when it's been soft; so rain or no rain, she should be ready to fire.
RACE 9
# 10 Affair (ML 3-1) just missed at this level two back, finishing a neck behind Won Kool Kid, who would win again his next time out. Unclear why two separate connections have tried to see what Affair would do on the grass; throw those two races out, and you get a much clearer picture of this colt's form.
# 1 Prima Zip (ML 6-1) is another where you would do well to disregard his last effort on the grass; indeed, Prima Zip was vanned off after that turf fiasco, only to come back less than three weeks later to post a bullet work on the Calder dirt. Prima Zip won at this approximate level two back; so a victory here should not surprise.
RACE 10 - The Pan American
First, let me inform you that this is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances by clicking the link, not to mention free video analysis of this race by someone who actually knows what he's talking about, Dan Illman.
# 10 Newsdad (ML 2-1) is last year's winner of this event, and is clearly the horse to beat again this year. However, there are some red flags; this will be her first start since last October; though that bullet work on March 18, coupled with Trainer Bill Mott's .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a few months vacation, would suggest that Newsdad will be ready to fire. Newsdad is also winless on the grass since winning The Pan American last year; though it could be said that has more to do with the ability of Point of Entry, to whom Newsdad lost three times in succession, than with any form deficiencies on Newsdad's part.
# 3 Ioya Bigtime (ML 6-1) has twice won on the turf at today's distance of twelve furlongs, and just missed victory by a neck one other time; all in Graded Stakes events. Jockey Jeffery Sanchez, who was on board for all three of those races, gets the mount again today.
RACE 11
# 1 Snit Fit (ML 7-2) just missed at this level against older her last time out. The 69 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that event is the best career Beyer in this field.
# 3 Lovely Dynaformer (ML 6-1) makes the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming, while also switching to a barn (Edward Plesa Jr.) who connects 38% of the time with that angle. Besides, I've always been a sucker for Dynaformer horses trying to break their maiden while on grass.
So, with all that, our ticket looks like this:
RACE 6: 1 / 2
RACE 7: 1 / 4 / 13
RACE 8: 2 / 6
RACE 9: 1 / 10
RACE 10: 3 / 10
RACE 11: 1 / 3
Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you $9.60.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
6/21/12 BHP Race 8 - Key Race - Update
Key Race 6/21/2012 BHP Race 8, first noted here July 12, 2012, has now come back in full:
Renee's Titan - 4th 8/8/12 DMR Race 7
Wellington Beauty - WIN 7/4/12 BHP Race 8
Ruler of the Tribe - WIN 7/12/12 BHP Race 2
Amy's Cashin In - SHOW 7/4/12 BHP 8
Kiptiddy Do - PLACE 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Yodelin Moon - SHOW 3/17/13 TUP Race 3
Citizen Bernstein - 8th 7/25/12 DMR Race 2
Warren's Fantasy - 5th 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Restless Ruby - 8th 7/26/12 DMR Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Renee's Titan - 4th 8/8/12 DMR Race 7
Wellington Beauty - WIN 7/4/12 BHP Race 8
Ruler of the Tribe - WIN 7/12/12 BHP Race 2
Amy's Cashin In - SHOW 7/4/12 BHP 8
Kiptiddy Do - PLACE 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Yodelin Moon - SHOW 3/17/13 TUP Race 3
Citizen Bernstein - 8th 7/25/12 DMR Race 2
Warren's Fantasy - 5th 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Restless Ruby - 8th 7/26/12 DMR Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, March 16, 2013
3/16/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
Hey, our single won the first race! We should celebrate that; especially since that was pretty much the end of the good news for our ticket.
Race 6 saw the one single on our ticket, # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (4.10) come through on the rail and win clear, by two and a half lengths. Our two selections in Race 7, # 5 Magical World (2.80) and # 7 Lily Olay (1.70) filled out two-thirds of the Trifecta, without either one landing in the top spot. It would go downhill from there.
We covered three horses in Race 8. # 2 Incredicat (28.3) set the pace and led at the top of the stretch, but gave way and finished seventh (though just a length and a half behind the winner). A length or so behind Incredicat was # 6 Malibu Way (5.30), who manged to find such trouble in the stretch that his jockey, Jersey Joe Bravo, lodged an objection against the riders of both the horses in the Exacta. Neither objection was allowed; which was kind of a shame, because if those two had both been disqualified, then the third place finisher, # 1 Southern Parkway (6.20), our other selection in this one, would have been declared the winner.
Race 9 saw one of our selections, # 2 Nemo Landing (2.80) take the Place, while our other selection, # 6 Jordan's Image (1.60) never fired and finished fifth, two slots ahead of the horse we mentioned in passing, # 10 In Speight of It (57.30) who demonstrated that breeding isn't everything.
We had the winner in Race 10 - The Honey Fox Stakes; as our selections finished first (# 2 Center Court 2.10) second (# 8 Samitar (GB) 2.80) fourth (# 4 Channel Lady 3.50) and fifth (# 6 Pianist 2.60). In the finale, Race 11, our first-timer, # 10 Dangerous Brew (50.50) was dead on the board, and ran as such, being last at every call. One of our selections, # 6 Acadian Connection (3.10) did take the Place; while our other choice, # 1 Channel Changer (5.10) came in seventh.
So, again, we got past the first leg, and just missed in the second; so at least we got some action out of our play. The bottom line was that we had the Winner in two races, the Place horse in three races, and the Show horse in the other. Which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, those who played the correct sequence of:
RACE 6: # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (4.10)
RACE 7: # 2 Magical Weekend (1.90)
RACE 8: # 5 Under Control (9.40)
RACE 9: # 5 Monroe Court (15.30)
RACE 10: # 2 Center Court (2.10)
RACE 11: # 4 El Tuscano (7.70)
were rewarded with a payout of $11,325.30 for their ten cent wager. May The Almighty bless them as they enjoy their winnings. As for us:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 saw the one single on our ticket, # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (4.10) come through on the rail and win clear, by two and a half lengths. Our two selections in Race 7, # 5 Magical World (2.80) and # 7 Lily Olay (1.70) filled out two-thirds of the Trifecta, without either one landing in the top spot. It would go downhill from there.
We covered three horses in Race 8. # 2 Incredicat (28.3) set the pace and led at the top of the stretch, but gave way and finished seventh (though just a length and a half behind the winner). A length or so behind Incredicat was # 6 Malibu Way (5.30), who manged to find such trouble in the stretch that his jockey, Jersey Joe Bravo, lodged an objection against the riders of both the horses in the Exacta. Neither objection was allowed; which was kind of a shame, because if those two had both been disqualified, then the third place finisher, # 1 Southern Parkway (6.20), our other selection in this one, would have been declared the winner.
Race 9 saw one of our selections, # 2 Nemo Landing (2.80) take the Place, while our other selection, # 6 Jordan's Image (1.60) never fired and finished fifth, two slots ahead of the horse we mentioned in passing, # 10 In Speight of It (57.30) who demonstrated that breeding isn't everything.
We had the winner in Race 10 - The Honey Fox Stakes; as our selections finished first (# 2 Center Court 2.10) second (# 8 Samitar (GB) 2.80) fourth (# 4 Channel Lady 3.50) and fifth (# 6 Pianist 2.60). In the finale, Race 11, our first-timer, # 10 Dangerous Brew (50.50) was dead on the board, and ran as such, being last at every call. One of our selections, # 6 Acadian Connection (3.10) did take the Place; while our other choice, # 1 Channel Changer (5.10) came in seventh.
So, again, we got past the first leg, and just missed in the second; so at least we got some action out of our play. The bottom line was that we had the Winner in two races, the Place horse in three races, and the Show horse in the other. Which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, those who played the correct sequence of:
RACE 6: # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (4.10)
RACE 7: # 2 Magical Weekend (1.90)
RACE 8: # 5 Under Control (9.40)
RACE 9: # 5 Monroe Court (15.30)
RACE 10: # 2 Center Court (2.10)
RACE 11: # 4 El Tuscano (7.70)
were rewarded with a payout of $11,325.30 for their ten cent wager. May The Almighty bless them as they enjoy their winnings. As for us:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
3/16/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
Heading back to sunny South Florida today; well, not physically, but as far as my handicapping attention goes. Took a serious look at today's Rainbow Six, and I couldn't find any way to put in a legitimate ticket for under seventy dollars. So, rather than take a serious stab, let's instead play an unserious ticket, and see if we can't get some cheap Saturday afternoon action; and, who knows; maybe by the Grace of The Almighty we'll find ourselves standing on the short line waiting to collect after the final race is run.
RACE 6
We'll know right away if this is going to be a short afternoon, as this race will have our one single on the ticket, # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (Morning Line 4-1). Anyone who knows my musical preferences will understand why I like the name; anyone who knows how to read trainer stats will appreciate why I like this one's chances in what looks to be a very competitive field. Our best hope is for Jockey Joel Rosario to bring her home past all the early speed.
RACE 7
# 5 Magical World (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for a trainer (Shug McGaughey) that doesn't often win with first time starters. But the offspring of Magical World's sire (Distorted Humor) connect more than sixteen percent of the time when making their debut, and the fact that Javier Castellano will be on board could be a sign that this one is ready to roll.
# 7 Lily Olay (ML 3-1) has twice been the bridesmaid at this level, taking the Place in both her career starts. The 65 Beyer Speed Figure that she earned her last time out (at six and a half furlongs) is the best Beyer in this field, and her Tomelinson Rating for the distance (365) suggests that the extra half panel will suit her just fine.
RACE 8
# 2 Incredicat (ML 20-1) is a stakes winner on dirt, and could steal this thing on the front end in his turf debut.
# 1 Southern Parkway (ML 6-1) took the Show at this level over this course at this distance his last time out; the winner of that one, Burn the Mortgage, had won his prior start as well, and just missed making it three in a row his last time out when he took the Show against N3X company.
# 6 Malibu Way (ML 6-1) comes back after an almost nine month vacation for a trainer (Christophe Clement) that wins more than a third of the time with horses who have taken off for a half-year or more. The fact that Malibu Way won his debut is a further indication that he can win off the pine; also note that Jersey Joe Bravo, who was on board Malibu Way for both his career wins and none of his career losses, gets the mount today.
RACE 9
# 6 Jordan's Image (ML 5-2) and # 2 Nemo Landing (ML 3-1) finished one-two their last time out, at this level on this track at this distance; a look at the field suggests that they should do likewise today. If I were to go three deep in this one I would give serious thought to # 10 In Speight of It (ML 12-1), who won over this track at this distance against this level two back, albeit just barely, and on a day when the field came up especially light, talent-wise. Still, if you're looking for a longshot play, In Speight of It is well worth considering; and it would be a mistake (in my humble opinion) to totally disregard him if you're playing Trifectas and Superfectas in this one.
RACE 10 - The Honey Fox
I really don't have much insight to offer in this one, taking as I am the top four as defined by the Morning Line odds: # 2 Centre Court (ML 3-1); # 4 Channel Lady (ML 4-1); # 6 Pianist (ML 5-1); and # 8 Samitar (GB) (ML 5-1). All strike me as having a legitimate shot in this one; and, even on a fun ticket, I just can't see leaving any out.
RACE 11
# 6 Acadian Connection (ML 5-1) has the best last-out Beyer in this field, in a race over this turf course with this price tag, but against older.
# 1 Channel Changer (ML 4-1) gets Johnny V in the saddle after taking the Show at this level his last time out. Channel Changer's Tomlinson Rating for both turf and turf distance suggest that he should do well at this; which is what you would expect from a son of English Channel.
# 10 Dangerous Brew (ML 12-1) is one that I wish I could see the tote board before having to decide whether to include or not; but sometimes you just have to roll the dice. The breeding is definitely there, both for debuts and for turf routes; the far outside post should be a benefit if he runs too green; the workout pattern has been consistent; and if he should come in after we miraculously hit the other five races, our little ticket just might be worth shouting about.
So, with all that, we get the following ticket of:
RACE 6: 10
RACE 7: 5, 7
RACE 8: 1 / 2 / 6
RACE 9: 2 / 6
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 6 / 8
RACE 11: 1 / 6 /10
Play it for a dime, with all the confidence of a lottery ticket, and the whole thing will cost you $14.40.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
We'll know right away if this is going to be a short afternoon, as this race will have our one single on the ticket, # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (Morning Line 4-1). Anyone who knows my musical preferences will understand why I like the name; anyone who knows how to read trainer stats will appreciate why I like this one's chances in what looks to be a very competitive field. Our best hope is for Jockey Joel Rosario to bring her home past all the early speed.
RACE 7
# 5 Magical World (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for a trainer (Shug McGaughey) that doesn't often win with first time starters. But the offspring of Magical World's sire (Distorted Humor) connect more than sixteen percent of the time when making their debut, and the fact that Javier Castellano will be on board could be a sign that this one is ready to roll.
# 7 Lily Olay (ML 3-1) has twice been the bridesmaid at this level, taking the Place in both her career starts. The 65 Beyer Speed Figure that she earned her last time out (at six and a half furlongs) is the best Beyer in this field, and her Tomelinson Rating for the distance (365) suggests that the extra half panel will suit her just fine.
RACE 8
# 2 Incredicat (ML 20-1) is a stakes winner on dirt, and could steal this thing on the front end in his turf debut.
# 1 Southern Parkway (ML 6-1) took the Show at this level over this course at this distance his last time out; the winner of that one, Burn the Mortgage, had won his prior start as well, and just missed making it three in a row his last time out when he took the Show against N3X company.
# 6 Malibu Way (ML 6-1) comes back after an almost nine month vacation for a trainer (Christophe Clement) that wins more than a third of the time with horses who have taken off for a half-year or more. The fact that Malibu Way won his debut is a further indication that he can win off the pine; also note that Jersey Joe Bravo, who was on board Malibu Way for both his career wins and none of his career losses, gets the mount today.
RACE 9
# 6 Jordan's Image (ML 5-2) and # 2 Nemo Landing (ML 3-1) finished one-two their last time out, at this level on this track at this distance; a look at the field suggests that they should do likewise today. If I were to go three deep in this one I would give serious thought to # 10 In Speight of It (ML 12-1), who won over this track at this distance against this level two back, albeit just barely, and on a day when the field came up especially light, talent-wise. Still, if you're looking for a longshot play, In Speight of It is well worth considering; and it would be a mistake (in my humble opinion) to totally disregard him if you're playing Trifectas and Superfectas in this one.
RACE 10 - The Honey Fox
I really don't have much insight to offer in this one, taking as I am the top four as defined by the Morning Line odds: # 2 Centre Court (ML 3-1); # 4 Channel Lady (ML 4-1); # 6 Pianist (ML 5-1); and # 8 Samitar (GB) (ML 5-1). All strike me as having a legitimate shot in this one; and, even on a fun ticket, I just can't see leaving any out.
RACE 11
# 6 Acadian Connection (ML 5-1) has the best last-out Beyer in this field, in a race over this turf course with this price tag, but against older.
# 1 Channel Changer (ML 4-1) gets Johnny V in the saddle after taking the Show at this level his last time out. Channel Changer's Tomlinson Rating for both turf and turf distance suggest that he should do well at this; which is what you would expect from a son of English Channel.
# 10 Dangerous Brew (ML 12-1) is one that I wish I could see the tote board before having to decide whether to include or not; but sometimes you just have to roll the dice. The breeding is definitely there, both for debuts and for turf routes; the far outside post should be a benefit if he runs too green; the workout pattern has been consistent; and if he should come in after we miraculously hit the other five races, our little ticket just might be worth shouting about.
So, with all that, we get the following ticket of:
RACE 6: 10
RACE 7: 5, 7
RACE 8: 1 / 2 / 6
RACE 9: 2 / 6
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 6 / 8
RACE 11: 1 / 6 /10
Play it for a dime, with all the confidence of a lottery ticket, and the whole thing will cost you $14.40.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, March 11, 2013
The San Felipe Stakes - Additional Thoughts
Just had a chance to really look at Saturday's San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. My initial thoughts matched
what seems to be the common wisdom about the race: that Flashback and Goldencents dueled themselves silly (the first six furlongs were run in under seventy seconds) which allowed Hear the Ghost to swoop in late and pass the tiring duo for the win.
And while there's no denying that the early tactics of the top two choices in the field shaped the race's finish, it would be wrong to diminish Hear the Ghost's victory by simply writing it off as a closer passing tiring rivals. That final half-furlong was run in 6.64 seconds (that's six and three fifths, for all you old timers out there). Pretty standard time for the finish of a eight and a half furlong race.
But look at Hear the Ghost's line. He made up six and a half lengths in that final half furlong. If you subscribe to the old standard of one length = one-fifth of a second, then that means Hear the Ghost was one and three tenths seconds faster than that 6.64. But let's be conservative; lets just knock a second off the time. That means that Hear the Ghost ran that final half-furlong in five and three fifths; that's pretty darn impressive.
I should mention here that Tiz a Minister was also motoring at a pretty good clip in that final half furlong, going from seven lengths back at the top of the stretch to finish just a length behind Hear the Ghost. I believe that it's also worth noting that Hear the Ghost and Tiz a Minister were the only two horses in the field to gain on the lead in that final drive.
Bottom line: don't diminish Hear the Ghost's win as simply a case of a closer passing tiring rivals, as his performance was much more impressive than that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, March 10, 2013
3/10/13 SA Late Pick Four - Results
Well, now; that was forgettable, wasn't it?
We covered four of the twelve horses in the field in Race 6; but it wasn't enough. # 9 Great Friends Rule (Final Odds 9.00) was running early but couldn't hold on, while Post Time favorite # 12 Real Heat (1.40) was coming late but not quick enough. # 4 Art Official (2.80) was mid-pack throughout, while #7 Swiss Sword (17.90) showed we should have found the courage to leave him off the ticket entirely, regardless of Marty Jones' Trainer Stats. Congrats to the winner, # 1 Bobo (5.40), who came cross country from Florida to give conditioner Patrick Gallagher just his second winner of the current meet.
We were wrong in our analysis that # 4 World Renowned (33.30) could make the early lead in Race 7; and once he couldn't get to the front, World Renowned just called it a day, finishing last. Our other selections, # 1 Tiz Snazzy (5.00) and # 5 I Don't Care Who (2.00) comprised two-thirds of the Trifecta, but without either of them grabbing the top slot. That spot went to # 9 Harlington Night (3.20) who benefited greatly from a late rider change, as Garrett Gomez rode him perfectly to an easy victory of over five lengths.
It turns out that we were right to have our misgivings about the heavy favorite in Race 8, # 5 Teddy's Promise (0.80); for while she showed a lot of heart, she could not hold off the late running # 2 Rumor (6.50). # 3 Shumoos (2.70) took the Show, while # 6 Sugarinthemorning (8.60) filled out a Superfecta that paid $16.60 for every ten cents wagered.
Speaking of misgivings that we should have heeded, # 7 Warren's Rail Bird (6.80) showed that his prior connections were justified in selling him off cheap, as he barely picked up his feet in Race 9, finishing last. However, the other horse that we covered on all our tickets, # 3 Late Night Sky (2.00) got the job done, if just barely, crossing the wire a nose in front of # 10 East Sky (22.80).
So we had one winner of four on three of our tickets, and two out of four winners on the other, and, well, that's just not what we were hoping for. As for those who were clever enough to select the correct combination of 1 / 9 / 2 / 3, they were rewarded with a late Pick Four that paid $646.35 for a fifty cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We covered four of the twelve horses in the field in Race 6; but it wasn't enough. # 9 Great Friends Rule (Final Odds 9.00) was running early but couldn't hold on, while Post Time favorite # 12 Real Heat (1.40) was coming late but not quick enough. # 4 Art Official (2.80) was mid-pack throughout, while #7 Swiss Sword (17.90) showed we should have found the courage to leave him off the ticket entirely, regardless of Marty Jones' Trainer Stats. Congrats to the winner, # 1 Bobo (5.40), who came cross country from Florida to give conditioner Patrick Gallagher just his second winner of the current meet.
We were wrong in our analysis that # 4 World Renowned (33.30) could make the early lead in Race 7; and once he couldn't get to the front, World Renowned just called it a day, finishing last. Our other selections, # 1 Tiz Snazzy (5.00) and # 5 I Don't Care Who (2.00) comprised two-thirds of the Trifecta, but without either of them grabbing the top slot. That spot went to # 9 Harlington Night (3.20) who benefited greatly from a late rider change, as Garrett Gomez rode him perfectly to an easy victory of over five lengths.
It turns out that we were right to have our misgivings about the heavy favorite in Race 8, # 5 Teddy's Promise (0.80); for while she showed a lot of heart, she could not hold off the late running # 2 Rumor (6.50). # 3 Shumoos (2.70) took the Show, while # 6 Sugarinthemorning (8.60) filled out a Superfecta that paid $16.60 for every ten cents wagered.
Speaking of misgivings that we should have heeded, # 7 Warren's Rail Bird (6.80) showed that his prior connections were justified in selling him off cheap, as he barely picked up his feet in Race 9, finishing last. However, the other horse that we covered on all our tickets, # 3 Late Night Sky (2.00) got the job done, if just barely, crossing the wire a nose in front of # 10 East Sky (22.80).
So we had one winner of four on three of our tickets, and two out of four winners on the other, and, well, that's just not what we were hoping for. As for those who were clever enough to select the correct combination of 1 / 9 / 2 / 3, they were rewarded with a late Pick Four that paid $646.35 for a fifty cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
3/10/13 SA Late Pick Four - Preview
Hopefully everyone reading this is enjoying what is, thanks to Daylight Savings Time, the shortest weekend of the year. Even more hopefully. my comments below regarding today's late Pick Four at Santa Anita will add to, rather than detract from, this weekend's enjoyment.
RACE 6
# 12 Real Heat (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level (California bred MSW) his last time out, losing by less than a length. He's shortening up here, but he's also going down the hill for the first time; typically, horses who do well on turf routes tend to do well going down the hill. Trainer Eric Kruljac does quite well when taking his horses from routes to sprints, winning 25% of the time with a positive ROI. Bejarano sticks around for the ride, which just adds to the appeal.
# 9 Great Friends Rule (ML 8-1) tries grass for the first time; as he has a Turf Tomlinson Rating of 362, along with a Turf Distance Tomlinson of 371 (best in the field) he can be expected to handle it quite well. This is the fifth career start for Great Friends Rule; since Trainer Doug O'Neill normally has his horses super primed for their debuts, if they don't win at first asking, they normally don't win at second or third asking either.
Speaking of debuts, # 4 Art Official (ML 4-1) goes to the post for the first time in his career. Trainer Peter Miller hits 27% of the time with those making their initial try (ROI $3.07). Miller also wins a quarter of his races with those trying grass for the first time, and he wins approximately 22% of his MSW events (ROI $2.86). Art Official has the best Turf Tomlinson rating of the bunch; add in the presence of Garret Gomez in the saddle, and its easy to conclude that this horse is ready to roll down the hill.
# 7 Swiss Sword (ML 6-1) is another first time starter, and he doesn't appear to have the turf pedigree of most others in this field. But Trainer Marty Jones does very well in the all the relevant angles, with a positive ROI to boot; it'll take a bit of courage to leave this one off the ticket.
RACE 7
# 5 I Don't Care Who (ML 4-1) broke his maiden over this track two starts back, at a distance of eight furlongs against $75k Maiden Claimers. Since that was a race that was moved off the turf, the class level may be misleading; and since the track was wet fast, it could be that he prefers it that way rather than dust dry (note the Wet Tomlinson of 404). But I Don't Care Who earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 87 for that effort; and if he runs to that figure again today, he'll romp against these.
# 1 Tiz Snazzy (ML 9-2) makes his first try against winners (well, mostly winners, as we'll see in a bit) after winning at the $40k Maiden level his last time out, in a race that wasn't his best effort (at least, based upon his Beyer Speed Figures). Since this will be his third start off the layoff, it's reasonable to expect improvement; but if he just returns to the BSF of 82 that he posted two back, he'll be in the hunt in this one.
# 4 World Renowned (ML 12-1) is a maiden challenging winners; for the second time, no less. World Renowned took the Place two back in the same race in which Tiz Snazzy broke his maiden. World Renowned has the best Distance Tomlinson in this field; more importantly, World Renowned is quite possibly the quickest in the field. He's certainly the quickest between his Post 4 and the rail; so look for him up front early, and then see if he can hold on til the end.
RACE 8 - The Las Flores
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5) stands out from the field just on class; but I do have some doubts (everyone should be aware that me having my doubts about a top favorite is a signal for many who regularly read these comments to bet their whole bankroll on said favorite; such is life when you're on a cold streak). My concerns stem from a look at the Beyers; note that, in Teddy's Promises last ten races, her worst two speed figures in that bunch both came over this track when it was fast and dry. On the other hand, this horse is also a Grade 1 winner over this track on a day when it was fast and dry; so perhaps those other two efforts can be disregarded.
# 3 Shumoos (ML 3-1) had quite a career going for herself before she decided to take a year off after taking the Place in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. She looked good enough winning her return last month over this track, but this will be her first real test in well over a year; and if her heart's not in it, you could find her just going through the motions.
# 2 Rumor (ML 5-1) won the LA Woman over this track at today's distance three races back. Last year she won the Kalookan Queen over this track at today's distance, earning a BSF of 99 in the process. So the ability is there if she brings her best; but if she brings anything less than her best, she'll have no shot today.
Speaking of ability, # 6 Sugarinthemorning (ML 6-1) seemingly has it in droves. What Sugarinthemorning doesn't seem to have anymore is the desire to win. This is a horse that won five times in her first nine races; two of those victories coming in listed stakes. However, in her ten races since then, all against listed or graded stakes competition, Sugarinthemorning has been winless, while taking the Place seven times. So the ability to win is there; but, for whatever reason, she just will no longer cross the wire first. If you're playing the intra-race exotics, you most certainly have to use her on your tickets, but outside the top spot; and then hope that today isn't the day that she decides that it's okay for the entire rest of the field to take a good look at her backside.
RACE 9
# 3 Late Night Sky (ML 8-5) takes a pretty big class drop here; after having competed against open claimers at the $50k and $32k level, he's now running with a price tag of just $25k, in a field comprised of horses with no more than one lifetime win. Late Night Sky is the only horse in the field with a win over this Santa Anita Turf Course.
# 7 Warren's Rail Bird (ML 6-1) took the Place two back at this level over this course at this distance. The pace should be honest enough that he'll have something to run at late; however, the fact that he was sold so cheap ($8k) his last time out does raise a red flag.
# 6 Captain Beau (ML 20-1) is a horse where you truly want to watch the board before making a decision. After all, this is a horse that has gone to post with double digit odds in eight of his nine lifetime starts. The only time in his career Captain Beau left the gate at odds of less than 10-1 was back on February 11, 2011; a race in which Captain Beau ran as the Post Time favorite, at odds of less than 2-1. By an amazing coincidence, that race was also Captain Beau's lone career victory.
If you're looking for some really cheap action, you could just play the following ticket:
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
If you buy it for fifty cents, your total cost would be three dollars. However, I'm going to spread a little here; in addition to the above, I'm going to also punch in the following three tickets:
RACE 6: 7
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 1 / 4
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 2 / 3
RACE 9: 3 / 7
By playing the top ticket for a dollar, and the other three for fifty cents each, the total cost becomes nineteen dollars.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
# 12 Real Heat (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level (California bred MSW) his last time out, losing by less than a length. He's shortening up here, but he's also going down the hill for the first time; typically, horses who do well on turf routes tend to do well going down the hill. Trainer Eric Kruljac does quite well when taking his horses from routes to sprints, winning 25% of the time with a positive ROI. Bejarano sticks around for the ride, which just adds to the appeal.
# 9 Great Friends Rule (ML 8-1) tries grass for the first time; as he has a Turf Tomlinson Rating of 362, along with a Turf Distance Tomlinson of 371 (best in the field) he can be expected to handle it quite well. This is the fifth career start for Great Friends Rule; since Trainer Doug O'Neill normally has his horses super primed for their debuts, if they don't win at first asking, they normally don't win at second or third asking either.
Speaking of debuts, # 4 Art Official (ML 4-1) goes to the post for the first time in his career. Trainer Peter Miller hits 27% of the time with those making their initial try (ROI $3.07). Miller also wins a quarter of his races with those trying grass for the first time, and he wins approximately 22% of his MSW events (ROI $2.86). Art Official has the best Turf Tomlinson rating of the bunch; add in the presence of Garret Gomez in the saddle, and its easy to conclude that this horse is ready to roll down the hill.
# 7 Swiss Sword (ML 6-1) is another first time starter, and he doesn't appear to have the turf pedigree of most others in this field. But Trainer Marty Jones does very well in the all the relevant angles, with a positive ROI to boot; it'll take a bit of courage to leave this one off the ticket.
RACE 7
# 5 I Don't Care Who (ML 4-1) broke his maiden over this track two starts back, at a distance of eight furlongs against $75k Maiden Claimers. Since that was a race that was moved off the turf, the class level may be misleading; and since the track was wet fast, it could be that he prefers it that way rather than dust dry (note the Wet Tomlinson of 404). But I Don't Care Who earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 87 for that effort; and if he runs to that figure again today, he'll romp against these.
# 1 Tiz Snazzy (ML 9-2) makes his first try against winners (well, mostly winners, as we'll see in a bit) after winning at the $40k Maiden level his last time out, in a race that wasn't his best effort (at least, based upon his Beyer Speed Figures). Since this will be his third start off the layoff, it's reasonable to expect improvement; but if he just returns to the BSF of 82 that he posted two back, he'll be in the hunt in this one.
# 4 World Renowned (ML 12-1) is a maiden challenging winners; for the second time, no less. World Renowned took the Place two back in the same race in which Tiz Snazzy broke his maiden. World Renowned has the best Distance Tomlinson in this field; more importantly, World Renowned is quite possibly the quickest in the field. He's certainly the quickest between his Post 4 and the rail; so look for him up front early, and then see if he can hold on til the end.
RACE 8 - The Las Flores
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5) stands out from the field just on class; but I do have some doubts (everyone should be aware that me having my doubts about a top favorite is a signal for many who regularly read these comments to bet their whole bankroll on said favorite; such is life when you're on a cold streak). My concerns stem from a look at the Beyers; note that, in Teddy's Promises last ten races, her worst two speed figures in that bunch both came over this track when it was fast and dry. On the other hand, this horse is also a Grade 1 winner over this track on a day when it was fast and dry; so perhaps those other two efforts can be disregarded.
# 3 Shumoos (ML 3-1) had quite a career going for herself before she decided to take a year off after taking the Place in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. She looked good enough winning her return last month over this track, but this will be her first real test in well over a year; and if her heart's not in it, you could find her just going through the motions.
# 2 Rumor (ML 5-1) won the LA Woman over this track at today's distance three races back. Last year she won the Kalookan Queen over this track at today's distance, earning a BSF of 99 in the process. So the ability is there if she brings her best; but if she brings anything less than her best, she'll have no shot today.
Speaking of ability, # 6 Sugarinthemorning (ML 6-1) seemingly has it in droves. What Sugarinthemorning doesn't seem to have anymore is the desire to win. This is a horse that won five times in her first nine races; two of those victories coming in listed stakes. However, in her ten races since then, all against listed or graded stakes competition, Sugarinthemorning has been winless, while taking the Place seven times. So the ability to win is there; but, for whatever reason, she just will no longer cross the wire first. If you're playing the intra-race exotics, you most certainly have to use her on your tickets, but outside the top spot; and then hope that today isn't the day that she decides that it's okay for the entire rest of the field to take a good look at her backside.
RACE 9
# 3 Late Night Sky (ML 8-5) takes a pretty big class drop here; after having competed against open claimers at the $50k and $32k level, he's now running with a price tag of just $25k, in a field comprised of horses with no more than one lifetime win. Late Night Sky is the only horse in the field with a win over this Santa Anita Turf Course.
# 7 Warren's Rail Bird (ML 6-1) took the Place two back at this level over this course at this distance. The pace should be honest enough that he'll have something to run at late; however, the fact that he was sold so cheap ($8k) his last time out does raise a red flag.
# 6 Captain Beau (ML 20-1) is a horse where you truly want to watch the board before making a decision. After all, this is a horse that has gone to post with double digit odds in eight of his nine lifetime starts. The only time in his career Captain Beau left the gate at odds of less than 10-1 was back on February 11, 2011; a race in which Captain Beau ran as the Post Time favorite, at odds of less than 2-1. By an amazing coincidence, that race was also Captain Beau's lone career victory.
If you're looking for some really cheap action, you could just play the following ticket:
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
If you buy it for fifty cents, your total cost would be three dollars. However, I'm going to spread a little here; in addition to the above, I'm going to also punch in the following three tickets:
RACE 6: 7
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 1 / 4
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 2 / 3
RACE 9: 3 / 7
By playing the top ticket for a dollar, and the other three for fifty cents each, the total cost becomes nineteen dollars.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, March 4, 2013
Night School Returns March 5
For anyone seeking to learn more about horse racing; be they novices, intermediates, or even experts, Night School begins its third season Tuesday night, 8:30 EST / 5:30 PST. Quoting from the official media release:
Season three of Night School, the racing industry’s official online fan education program, breaks from the starting gate Tuesday, March 5 for the first of 40 lesson plans aimed at building the sport’s customer base. Night School runs weekly though December 3. More than 400,000 viewers have accessed the first two seasons of Night School, which debuted in February 2011 and is set for a multi-media makeover this year.
Night School offers handicapping and racing-related lesson plans and topics in an interactive format online each Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. eastern, a timeslot and date chosen so that it can best supplement the racing week and schedules of fans across the country and worldwide. Night School is always free with optional registration.
Night School co-creators Joe Kristufek and Jeremy Plonk of Horseplayernow.com host and produce the lessons and downloadable study materials each week. They are joined by regular appearances from Caton Bredar of Horse Player NOW and HRTV, and Jill Byrne of Churchill Downs. A litany of the industry’s top horsemen, handicappers and executives comprise the season’s Who’s Who of guests. More than 150 guests have come “back to school” so far.
As mentioned above, Night School is free to join; all study guides and other materials (for example, a beginner's guide to betting the races) are also free. Classes are about ninety minutes, and the course runs for forty weeks, broken down into five eight week pods. Each class will be followed by an "After Night School Special", featuring live racing from Mountaineer Race Track.
Prizes will be drawn among registered Night Schoolers who attend 6 of 8 lessons in each pod, those earning "Honor Roll” status for attending either live or via the archives. Also, those who register live or in the archives for 20 or more lessons will receive a Night School diploma and prizes at season’s end.
For more information, and to be a part of Night School, head on over to HorsePlayerNow.com and just click the links for Night School.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, March 3, 2013
3/2/13 SA Late Pick Four - Results
While several things happened that we were expecting, the final results were most certainly not what we were hoping for.
RACE 8
Our single in this one, # 6 Sir Bond (Final Odds 5.1-1) ran reasonably well, tracking the pace, always within three lengths of the lead. But in the end he just didn't have enough for the drive, finishing fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner, the Bob Baffert trained # 7 Patriot's Voyage (6.0-1).
RACE 9 - The Kilroe Mile
Our other single, # 8 Mr. Commons (2.7-1) broke last, hanging out at the back of the pack. Which was a pretty decent place to be in the early stages of this one, as the two longest shots on the board, # 4 Vagabond Shoes (Ire) (21.3-1) and # 6 Forest Mouse (34.7-1) were frantically dueling for the lead, setting fractions of 46.64 for the half and 1.09.97 for the first six furlongs.
However, having stayed out of the early fray, Mr. Common's rider, Corey Nakatani, encountered traffic issues while making his move in the stretch; first finding himself behind a wall of horses while attempting to go inside, then being forced to wait off heels before going to the outside, and then fighting between horses, only to lose the photo for Show and finish fourth, a length and a quarter behind the winner, # 3 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (1.5-1).
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap
In the preview, I mentioned my reasons for not singling # 9 Game On Dude (1.3-1). My primary reason was my belief that, when Game On Dude went for the early lead, he would find # 2 Handsome Mike (30.1-1) already there, and thus would not have things all his own way in the early going. Well, I was right in that, when Game On Dude went for the early lead, Handsome Mike was already there. However, what I didn't factor in was The Dude's determination Saturday, as he virtually ran over Handsome Mike in order to secure the early advantage. The chart caller writes that Handsome Mike was "steadied when crowded by the winner in the run in the stretch the first time"; which is a polite way of saying that Game On Dude nearly knocked Handsome Mike over the rail in his quest to be the front runner entering the first turn.
And that was the race; because once The Dude got loose on the lead, it was all over but the shouting, as the Bob Baffert trained gelding cruised to an easy victory, crossing the wire nearly eight lengths in front of the rest of the field. As for our other selections in this contest, # 4 Called to Serve (4.1-1) lost the photo for Place to # 5 Clubhouse Ride (27.6-1) and had to settle for the Show, while # 1 Ron the Greek (2.7-1) rounded out the Superfecta, finishing fourth.
RACE 11
When you hit the "ALL" button for a race, this is what you are hoping will happen: a complete train wreck. The final odds for the top five finishers in Race 11 were 8.1-1; 17.8-1; 26.7-1; 26.5-1; and 20.5-1, with # 12 Summer Exclusive topping the chart. Can you imagine, with those odds, what the Super High Five must have paid? Well, you'll have to imagine it, as no one had the winning combo Saturday, making for a carryover of $92,038 for Sunday's pool.
Congratulations to all those who had the winning sequence of 7 / 3 / 9 / 12, as they were rewarded with $295.45 for every fifty cents wagered; not too bad for a combination that included two Post Time Favorites. As for our play, we correctly chose two out of four winners; which, as I'm sure you all already know, pays absolutely nothing. Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8
Our single in this one, # 6 Sir Bond (Final Odds 5.1-1) ran reasonably well, tracking the pace, always within three lengths of the lead. But in the end he just didn't have enough for the drive, finishing fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner, the Bob Baffert trained # 7 Patriot's Voyage (6.0-1).
RACE 9 - The Kilroe Mile
Our other single, # 8 Mr. Commons (2.7-1) broke last, hanging out at the back of the pack. Which was a pretty decent place to be in the early stages of this one, as the two longest shots on the board, # 4 Vagabond Shoes (Ire) (21.3-1) and # 6 Forest Mouse (34.7-1) were frantically dueling for the lead, setting fractions of 46.64 for the half and 1.09.97 for the first six furlongs.
However, having stayed out of the early fray, Mr. Common's rider, Corey Nakatani, encountered traffic issues while making his move in the stretch; first finding himself behind a wall of horses while attempting to go inside, then being forced to wait off heels before going to the outside, and then fighting between horses, only to lose the photo for Show and finish fourth, a length and a quarter behind the winner, # 3 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (1.5-1).
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap
In the preview, I mentioned my reasons for not singling # 9 Game On Dude (1.3-1). My primary reason was my belief that, when Game On Dude went for the early lead, he would find # 2 Handsome Mike (30.1-1) already there, and thus would not have things all his own way in the early going. Well, I was right in that, when Game On Dude went for the early lead, Handsome Mike was already there. However, what I didn't factor in was The Dude's determination Saturday, as he virtually ran over Handsome Mike in order to secure the early advantage. The chart caller writes that Handsome Mike was "steadied when crowded by the winner in the run in the stretch the first time"; which is a polite way of saying that Game On Dude nearly knocked Handsome Mike over the rail in his quest to be the front runner entering the first turn.
And that was the race; because once The Dude got loose on the lead, it was all over but the shouting, as the Bob Baffert trained gelding cruised to an easy victory, crossing the wire nearly eight lengths in front of the rest of the field. As for our other selections in this contest, # 4 Called to Serve (4.1-1) lost the photo for Place to # 5 Clubhouse Ride (27.6-1) and had to settle for the Show, while # 1 Ron the Greek (2.7-1) rounded out the Superfecta, finishing fourth.
RACE 11
When you hit the "ALL" button for a race, this is what you are hoping will happen: a complete train wreck. The final odds for the top five finishers in Race 11 were 8.1-1; 17.8-1; 26.7-1; 26.5-1; and 20.5-1, with # 12 Summer Exclusive topping the chart. Can you imagine, with those odds, what the Super High Five must have paid? Well, you'll have to imagine it, as no one had the winning combo Saturday, making for a carryover of $92,038 for Sunday's pool.
Congratulations to all those who had the winning sequence of 7 / 3 / 9 / 12, as they were rewarded with $295.45 for every fifty cents wagered; not too bad for a combination that included two Post Time Favorites. As for our play, we correctly chose two out of four winners; which, as I'm sure you all already know, pays absolutely nothing. Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, March 2, 2013
3/2/13 SA Late Pick Four - Preview
Since I knew that I would be watching the Big Cap today at Santa Anita regardless of whatever else I did, it just made sense to work their final few races. With that, here are some thoughts on the late Pick Four at Santa Anita:
RACE 8
The first thing that caught my eye when handicapping this race was that # 5 Rousing Sermon (Morning Line 7-2) still has only two career wins. Maybe it's because he's almost always competitive against top competition, but I figured for sure that this four year old had visited the Winner's Circle more than twice.
#10 Obess (ML 15-1) could be the controlling speed in this field; but it appears that he's not really comfortable being the leader of the pack. The 98 Beyer he earned over this track last April (at six and a half furlongs) should be enough to win this race; but Obess hasn't come within a dozen points of that figure since that effort.
# 11 Mensa Heat (ML 6-1) had a streak from March 26, 2011 to December 18, 2011 where he won six out of ten races (with one Place and two Shows). Sadly, he has not won since, in ten tries.
# 8 Zackn'mat (ML 6-1) returned to the track after taking almost a year off following his Place finish in Borderland Derby at Sunland Park. The unretired Gary Stevens, who rode Zackn'mat to a career best 92 Beyer his last time out, is back on board.
Despite all the above, I decided to single # 6 Sir Bond (ML 9-2). The major selling point to me is the 97 Beyer Sir Bond posted three back over this track at this distance in The Damascus; that was also the last time Sir Bond competed on a dry fast track. That 97 Beyer is better than anything any other entrant in this affair has ever posted at today's distance. Having Steve Asmussen as his conditioner just adds to the appeal.
RACE 9 - The Kilroe Mile
# 8 Mr. Commons (ML 3-1) has posted triple digit Beyers in each of his last three races; if he matches any of those efforts, he wins this affair. Trainer John Shirreffs hits 25% of the time (with a $3.24 ROI) when bringing a horse back from a two-to-three month layoff, and the bullet work Mr. Commons posted February 23 shows that he's ready to give his best.
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap
If I had more faith in # 9 Game On Dude (ML 6-5) I could really spread wide in Races 8 and 11. The problem for me is that, while the Dude loves this track (six wins in seven tries) he's at best lukewarm to this distance, with two victories in eight attempts. Also consider that the Dude won't get to have things all his own way today, because when he jumps out to the early lead, he's going to find # 2 Handsome Mike (ML 20-1) has gotten there first.
Speaking of Doug O'Neill horses (of which Handsome Mike is one) # 6 Richard's Kid (ML 12-1) has not been the same since making to move to the O'Neill barn from Bob Baffert. Granted, Richard's Kid isn't as bad as he looked his last time out (what in the world was he doing on the grass?) but it sure looks like his best days are behind him.
# 1 Ron the Greek (ML 5-2), like Game On Dude, is a prior winner of this contest (TRIVIA QUESTION: Who are the three horses that have won the Santa Anita Derby more than once? Answer below). Also like Game On Dude, the Greek's main negative is the distance, having finished out of the money three out of the five times he's tried going this far.
# 4 Called to Serve (ML 6-1) is trying ten furlongs for the first time today. While his Tomlin Rating for the distance (304) looks rather light, the fact that his sire was Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex suggests that he should have no problem making it to the wire. The five straight bullet works suggests that Called to Serve could be sitting on a big one today.
RACE 11
Very tempted to just hit "ALL" with all the first time starters; so let's just do that.
So, with all that, we're looking at a ticket of:
RACE 8: # 6
RACE 9: # 8
RACE 10: # 1, # 4, # 9
RACE 11: ALL
If you play it for fifty cents, the whole thing will cost you $18.00.
Post time for Race 8 is 6:44 EST / 3:44 PST. Good luck to all.
ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The three horses with two Santa Anita Handicaps victories are John Henry (1981-82), Milwaukee Brew (2002-03), and Lava Man (2006-07).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8
The first thing that caught my eye when handicapping this race was that # 5 Rousing Sermon (Morning Line 7-2) still has only two career wins. Maybe it's because he's almost always competitive against top competition, but I figured for sure that this four year old had visited the Winner's Circle more than twice.
#10 Obess (ML 15-1) could be the controlling speed in this field; but it appears that he's not really comfortable being the leader of the pack. The 98 Beyer he earned over this track last April (at six and a half furlongs) should be enough to win this race; but Obess hasn't come within a dozen points of that figure since that effort.
# 11 Mensa Heat (ML 6-1) had a streak from March 26, 2011 to December 18, 2011 where he won six out of ten races (with one Place and two Shows). Sadly, he has not won since, in ten tries.
# 8 Zackn'mat (ML 6-1) returned to the track after taking almost a year off following his Place finish in Borderland Derby at Sunland Park. The unretired Gary Stevens, who rode Zackn'mat to a career best 92 Beyer his last time out, is back on board.
Despite all the above, I decided to single # 6 Sir Bond (ML 9-2). The major selling point to me is the 97 Beyer Sir Bond posted three back over this track at this distance in The Damascus; that was also the last time Sir Bond competed on a dry fast track. That 97 Beyer is better than anything any other entrant in this affair has ever posted at today's distance. Having Steve Asmussen as his conditioner just adds to the appeal.
RACE 9 - The Kilroe Mile
# 8 Mr. Commons (ML 3-1) has posted triple digit Beyers in each of his last three races; if he matches any of those efforts, he wins this affair. Trainer John Shirreffs hits 25% of the time (with a $3.24 ROI) when bringing a horse back from a two-to-three month layoff, and the bullet work Mr. Commons posted February 23 shows that he's ready to give his best.
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap
If I had more faith in # 9 Game On Dude (ML 6-5) I could really spread wide in Races 8 and 11. The problem for me is that, while the Dude loves this track (six wins in seven tries) he's at best lukewarm to this distance, with two victories in eight attempts. Also consider that the Dude won't get to have things all his own way today, because when he jumps out to the early lead, he's going to find # 2 Handsome Mike (ML 20-1) has gotten there first.
Speaking of Doug O'Neill horses (of which Handsome Mike is one) # 6 Richard's Kid (ML 12-1) has not been the same since making to move to the O'Neill barn from Bob Baffert. Granted, Richard's Kid isn't as bad as he looked his last time out (what in the world was he doing on the grass?) but it sure looks like his best days are behind him.
# 1 Ron the Greek (ML 5-2), like Game On Dude, is a prior winner of this contest (TRIVIA QUESTION: Who are the three horses that have won the Santa Anita Derby more than once? Answer below). Also like Game On Dude, the Greek's main negative is the distance, having finished out of the money three out of the five times he's tried going this far.
# 4 Called to Serve (ML 6-1) is trying ten furlongs for the first time today. While his Tomlin Rating for the distance (304) looks rather light, the fact that his sire was Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex suggests that he should have no problem making it to the wire. The five straight bullet works suggests that Called to Serve could be sitting on a big one today.
RACE 11
Very tempted to just hit "ALL" with all the first time starters; so let's just do that.
So, with all that, we're looking at a ticket of:
RACE 8: # 6
RACE 9: # 8
RACE 10: # 1, # 4, # 9
RACE 11: ALL
If you play it for fifty cents, the whole thing will cost you $18.00.
Post time for Race 8 is 6:44 EST / 3:44 PST. Good luck to all.
ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The three horses with two Santa Anita Handicaps victories are John Henry (1981-82), Milwaukee Brew (2002-03), and Lava Man (2006-07).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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