5/21/22 Pimlico Preakness Pick 4 - Results

Race 10 - The James W Murphy - # 10 Joe (Final Odds 1.90) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - The Sir Barton - # 1 Ethereal Road (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 12 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint - # 2 Carotari (1.40*) - "B" Selection

Race 13 - The Preakness # 5 Early Voting (5.70) - "B" Selection

I'll be honest; my original plan was to go only two deep in the Preakness.  But after several runners which I had planned to use in other legs had scratched (for example, # 4 The Addison Pour (ML 15-1) in the Sir Barton) I decided that it was worth it to add another "B" Selection in the featured race, as doing so would not significantly increase the cost of my play.  As that added runner was Early Voting, Saturday proved to be a relatively rare case of me changing my mind being beneficial to my bankroll.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 4 Secret Oath (5.00) - $81.95 Finish: 4th

# 8 Epicenter (1.20*) - $30.05 Finish: 2nd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 1 / 2 / 5  which paid $72.25 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $24.25 on my initial $48 investment, or approximate odds of 0.50-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/21/22 Pimlico Preakness Pick 4 - Preview

“As a middle child, I definitely considered the merits of getting trapped in a well just for the attention.” - Chris Schleicher

It's Preakness Day in Baltimore, the middle child of Horse Racing's Triple Crown, being simultaneously loved and neglected by many.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four at Pimlico ending with the Preakness Stakes.

RACE 10 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Ready to Purrform (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 8 Shake Em Loose (ML 8-1)

# 10 Joe (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Determined Kingdom (ML 15-1)

# 2 Local Motive (ML 8-1)

# 3 Uncaptured Spirit (ML 12-1)

# 6 Epic Luck (ML 30-1)

# 9 Crabs N Beer (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 4 Wow Whata Summer (ML 15-1); # 7 Riot House (ML 4-1); and # 11 World of Fools (ML 50-1)

Ready to Purrform is making his 2022 debut, and Ready to Purrform looks well meant here.  Shake Em Loose and Joe fit well here on class, having taken turns defeating each other in a pair of Listed Stakes on the dirt.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Sir Barton $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Ethereal Road (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 B Dawk (ML 5-2)

# 6 Mr Jefferson (ML 6-1)
# 8 Unikee (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Goldenize (ML 20-1)
# 3 Writeitontheice (ML 30-1)

# 7 Good Skate (ML 15-1)

# 10 Ruggs (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 4 The Addison Pour (ML 15-1) and # 9 Brooklyn Diamonds (ML 10-1)

Ethereal Road is the D. Wayne Lukas trained runner whose scratch from the Kentucky Derby opened the door for Rich Strike to compete and win.  Ethereal Road should do well with the lesser distance to be covered here.

B Dawk, trained by Doug O'Neill, was impressive while graduating last time out, and B Dawk should do well with the added distance.  Mr Jefferson could move up with the cutback in distance.  Unikee could be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Hollis (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Carotari (ML 9-5)

C's

# 1 Bank (ML 12-1)
# 3 Seven Scents (ML 4-1)
# 4 Arthur's Hope (ML 20-1)
# 5 Mr. Hustle (ML 10-1)
# 6 Smokin' Jay (ML 6-1)
# 7 Grateful Bred (ML 6-1)
# 8 The Wolfman (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 10 Concrete Glory (ML 30-1)

Hollis had a rough go of it in last year's running of this event; hopefully Hollis will get a cleaner trip Saturday.  Carotari, making his 2022 debut here, is a specialist at the five furlong distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 13 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Secret Oath (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Early Voting (ML 7-2)

# 8 Epicenter (ML 6-5)

C's

# 1 Simplification (ML 6-1)
# 2 Creative Minister (ML 10-1)
# 3 Fenwick (ML 50-1)

# 6 Happy Jack (ML 30-1)

# 7 Armagnac (ML 12-1)

# 9 Skippylongstocking (ML 20-1)

Secret Oath, the D. Wayne Lukas trained filly, could win here with a repeat of the effort that she gave while winning the Kentucky Oaks.  Early Voting projects to be the one that they'll have to catch in order to win.

Epicenter was the best runner in the Kentucky Derby not named Rich Strike.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 9 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,8,10 with 1,5,6,8 with 2,9 with 4,5,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,9 with 1 with 9 with 4 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,7,10 with 9 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8 with 4 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 9 with 1,2,3,6,7,9 $3.00

Total: $48.00

Post Time for Race 10 is 4:12 EDT / 1:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 1 Ready To Venture (Final Odds 0.95*) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Grandson (1.65*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Bizymaline (2.40) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - # 9 Rondure (10.50) - "C" Selection

In the preview, I remarked, "If Ready To Venture can conquer the new surface and the distance, then she could make odds of 3-5 look like a gift."  As it turned out, the betting public was as skeptical regarding Ready To Venture's chances as I was, because when Ready To Venture won Race 7 as easily as she wanted, the gift turned out to be an even larger Final Odds of 4-5.  So anyway, trying to defeat what proved to be a legitimate Favorite was key among the reasons why Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well, onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 4 / 7 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $72.76 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Those who can imagine anything, can create the impossible.” - Alan Turing

It's the off-week between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness; for many a week of rest, but, for me, I'll be looking to Ontario to see if I can make some hay.  So with that as intro let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Sweet Carolena (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Ready To Venture (GB) (ML 3-5)

# 2 Veri Unified (ML 10-1)

# 3 Wicked Miah (ML 20-1)
# 4 Marais (ML 6-1)

# 5 Richies Noble Girl (ML 8-1)

# 7 Endorphin Rush (ML 20-1)

As you can see, I'm going one deep in this opening leg; but the runner that I'll be singling here is not the odds-on Morning Line Favorite.

Ready To Venture (GB) has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of her 2022 starts so far.  But those two starts were both on the turf (one at Fair Grounds, the other at Aqueduct) and both at a distance of eight and a half furlongs.  Ready To Venture has never previously competed on a synthetic surface, and Ready To Venture has yet to run a race at a distance of less than seven furlongs.

Now, if Ready To Venture can conquer the new surface and the distance, then she could make odds of 3-5 look like a gift.  But I'm going to roll the dice here and see if I can get myself an upset to kick things off.

Sweet Carolena took the Place over this main track last time out at this class level.  The runner Sweet Carolena finished behind was Beautiful Empire, who followed up that Allowance race victory by winning the $125k Star Shoot Stakes.  I'm going to play this sequence with the hope/expectation that Sweet Carolena can improve enough off that last start to get under the wire ahead of Ready To Venture, who I hope will be disadvantaged by the surface and/or distance.  So for me it's one deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Sovereign (ML 8-1)

B's

# 4 Grandson (ML 3-1)

# 5 Mr. De (ML 4-1)

# 6 Day Tripper (ML 2-1)

# 7 Midnight Arkle (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 2 Giant One (ML 6-1) and # 3 Cerebro (ML 8-1)

So right after my single I'll be punching the "ALL" button.  The problem I have with this race is that the two logical contenders, Day Tripper and Mr. De, in my mind represent the resistible force meeting the movable object.

Day Tripper and Mr. De filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this main track last time out.  But Day Tripper has been in this position several times before, and has always managed to miss graduation.  Meanwhile, Mr. De will be making his second career start; and, for whatever reason, Trainer Steve Chircop's runners don't seem to move forward when competing for the second time.

So since the top two contenders both appear to be vulnerable, and all other entrants seem to be equally qualified, I'm going to accept that this contest is a mystery that I can't solve, and punch the "ALL" button and move on.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Dictate (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 2 Erasmo's Girl (ML 5-2)

# 5 Mumblebee (ML 6-1)

# 7 Bizymaline (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Alluring Meg (ML 10-1)

# 4 Admonish (ML 20-1)

# 6 Super Leggera (ML 8-1)

Nothing fancy here.  Dictate, Erasmo's Girl, Mumblebee, and Bizymaline are all taking a step down on the class ladder, dropping into a class level where they can be competitive.  So those four make their way onto the main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Stronger Together (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 War Safe (ML 5-1)

# 4 Don't Tempt Fate (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Golden Burn (ML 10-1)

# 2 Bill Needle (ML 10-1)

# 6 Crooner (ML 12-1)

# 7 Under Surveillance (ML 20-1)

# 8 Uh Oh It's Magic (ML 15-1)

# 9 Rondure (ML 20-1)

# 10 Allen Diggs (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 Icing (ML 7-2)

Stronger Together took the Place at this class level last time out, and Stronger Together's bullet work last Saturday suggests that he is ready to fire.

War Safe and Don't Tempt Fate are a pair of debut runners that have been working well for this contest.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 6 with ALL with 1,2,5,7 with 3,4,11 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 11 $0.60

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $1.40

Total: $16.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/22 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 9 Stolen Base (Final Odds 5.60) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Churchill Downs - # 3 Jackie's Warrior (1.00*) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 10 Santin (7.10) - "B" Selection

Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 21 Rich Strike (80.80) - "C" Selection

So a horse with only one career victory, a horse that had lost twice to Tiz the Bomb, switched surfaces and managed to pull off a huge victory Saturday.  Well, yes; of course.  In fact, you can see that horse's name above, Stolen Base, because I had him on my main ticket in the opening leg.  Unfortunately, my main ticket did not contain the OTHER horse with only one career victory, that had lost twice to Tiz the Bomb, that switched surfaces and pulled off a huge victory Saturday.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 1 Mo Donnegal (10.10) - $919.25 Finish: 5th

# 9 Tiz the Bomb (31.00) - $4,795.10 Finish: 9th

# 10 Zandon (6.10) - $540.75 Finish: 3rd

# 12 Taiba (5.80) - $472.00 Finish: 12th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  9 / 3 / 10 / 21  were rewarded with a payout of $25,834.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/22 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this: you haven’t." - Thomas A. Edison

Here we are, the first Saturday in May, the day when many Americans will be watching their one allotted horse race for the year.  That one race, of course, is the Kentucky Derby, the event for which virtually every talented North American three year old thoroughbred has been training almost since birth.  Okay, that's enough buildup; let's get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Balnikhov (Ire) (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 2 Main Event (ML 5-1)

# 6 Portfolio Company (ML 9-2)

# 7 Sy Dog (ML 7-2)

# 9 Stolen Base (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Smokin' T (ML 15-1)

# 3 Red Run (ML 15-1)

# 4 Red Danger (ML 10-1)

# 10 Coinage (ML 6-1)

# 11 Dowagiac Chief (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 8 Royal Spirit (ML 15-1)

Balnikov (Ire) missed victory by just a nose last time out in his North American debut.  Main Event misses by just a neck of being three-for-three lifetime on the turf.  Portfolio Company, making his 2022 debut, has won off works in the past.

Sy Dog, trained by Graham Motion, is undefeated in his three race career.  Stolen Base could improve with the return to the turf.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Churchill Downs (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Jackie's Warrior (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Aloha West (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)

# 4 Sir Alfred James (ML 30-1)

# 5 Reinvestment Risk (ML 7-2)

# 6 Prevalence (ML 6-1)

# 7 Mind Control (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 8 Cezanne (ML 4-1)

Jackie's Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile over this track last year, appears to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field.  Jackie's Warrior also tends to run well at the seven furlong distance.

Aloha West won the 2021 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint defeating, among others, Jackie's Warrior (the only time in Jackie's Warrior's career when he did not finish in the Superfecta).  However, Aloha West has not run competitively since that event last November.  If Aloha West is ready to roll then there's no reason why he can't defeat Jackie's Warrior again.  So I'll be going two deep in this leg on the big ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Shirl's Speight (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 5-1)

# 5 Mira Mission (ML 10-1)

# 10 Santin (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Bizzee Channel (ML 30-1)

# 3 Public Sector (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 7 Cavalry Charge (ML 12-1)

# 8 Adhamo (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 9 Kentucky Ghost (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

Shirl's Speight enters this contest with a three race winning streak, and Shirl's Speight has proven in the past that he can win going second time off the bench.  Tibhuvan (Fr) could improve with the cutback in distance.

Mira Mission could rebound to the form that he showed in February when he won the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream Park.  Santin could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Taiba (ML 12-1)

B's

# 1 Mo Donegal (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tiz the Bomb (ML 30-1)

# 10 Zandon (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Happy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 3 Epicenter (ML 7-2)

# 4 Summer Is Tomorrow (ML 30-1)
# 5 Smile Happy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Messier (ML 8-1)

# 7 Crown Pride (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Charge It (ML 20-1)

# 11 Pioneer of Medina (ML 30-1)

# 13 Simplification (ML 20-1)

# 14 Barber Road (ML 30-1)
# 15 White Abarrio (ML 10-1)

# 16 Cyberknife (ML 20-1)
# 17 Classic Causeway (ML 30-1)

# 18 Tawny Port (ML 30-1)

# 19 Zozos (ML 20-1)

# 21 Rich Strike (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 20 Ethereal Road (ML 30-1) and # 22 Rattle N Roll (ML 30-1)

Taiba reminds me oh so much of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify; just a freakishly gifted athlete that can rise to any occasion as required.  In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Taiba had no difficulties running right by Messier in the stretch; and Messier is clearly no pushover.

Mo Donegal, winner of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, had trouble competing in Florida at the same level that he was competing in New York.  Perhaps Mo Donegal will bring his New York form to Kentucky.

Tiz the Bomb, winner of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steak Stakes could shock the world if his recent success turns out to be due to his natural maturation rather than due to the switch to the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

Zandon, winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7,9 with 1,3 with 4,5,6,10 with 1,9,10,12 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,10,11 with 3 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 2,3,7,8,9 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,21 $8.00

Total: $96.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo