Race 5 - # 10 Mine N Yours (Final Odds 8.70) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Delightful Diamond (44.20) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Howard of Luck (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Rulelikecleopatra (5.20) - "C" Selection
Getting home a nineteen dollar horse was certainly a nice way to begin the sequence; and it's never a bad thing when you have a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection cross under the wire first, as I did in Race 7. But you can't be only half right if you wish to win, and neither of the other two winners, who had finished a combined twenty lengths behind the victor in their respective last out contests, was on my handicapping radar tonight; which made Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 10 / 3 / 4 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $8,262.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 29, 2020
2/29/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview
"[T]his day holds another secret—it contains one of those truly rare moments of delightful transience and light uncertainty that only exist on the razor edge of things, along a buzzing plane of quantum probability....A day of unlocked potential." - Vera Nazarian
Welcome to Leap Day, which comes with a friendly reminder to all of you who get paid salary rather than by the hour that you get to work an extra day in 2020 without receiving extra pay. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - Clm $5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Valid Storm (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 1 Fred's Country Boy (ML 6-1)
# 2 Gray Donovan (ML 6-1)
# 3 Glitter Cat (ML 8-1)
# 10 Mine N Yours (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Nautical Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Just Another John (ML 4-1)
# 7 Suzdal (ML 20-1)
# 8 Skyswept (ML 15-1)
# 9 Senor Wilbur (ML 20-1)
# 11 One Thirty Nine (ML 6-1)
# 12 Fighting for Grace (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Stack Em High (ML 8-1) and # 14 High Powered (ML 3-1)
Valid Storm took the Place at this class level last time out, and Valid Storm could be quickest here. Glitter Cat and Fred's Country Boy filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out.
Gray Donovan could rebound going third off the layoff. Mine N Yours could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 She Wants More (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Liner (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lady Rubi (ML 15-1)
# 3 Delightful Diamond (ML 15-1)
# 5 La Coyota (ML 30-1)
# 6 Legend Bound (ML 50-1)
# 7 Timely Miss (ML 20-1)
# 8 Bay of Fables (ML 10-1)
# 9 Senctuaire Spot (ML 30-1)
# 10 My Girl Rocket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Kylies Charm (ML 5-1)
# 12 Mikayla Attack (ML 5-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 I'm Warning You (ML 5-1)
She Wants More and Liner are both taking a step up on the class ladder, having each defeated N2L company last time out (in separate contests). Worth noting is that Kylies Charm is racing here above her conditions, as Kylies Charm has only one lifetime victory. Interestingly enough, Kylies Charm's one lifetime Win was last time out, back in September, against non-Claiming Maidens at Belterra Park; so make what you will of her being offered for $5k here. Anyway, I'll be using Kylies Charm as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field, excepting She Wants More and Liner.
RACE 7 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Howard of Luck (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1A American Solutions (ML 3-1)
C's
Welcome to Leap Day, which comes with a friendly reminder to all of you who get paid salary rather than by the hour that you get to work an extra day in 2020 without receiving extra pay. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - Clm $5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Valid Storm (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 1 Fred's Country Boy (ML 6-1)
# 2 Gray Donovan (ML 6-1)
# 3 Glitter Cat (ML 8-1)
# 10 Mine N Yours (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Nautical Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Just Another John (ML 4-1)
# 7 Suzdal (ML 20-1)
# 8 Skyswept (ML 15-1)
# 9 Senor Wilbur (ML 20-1)
# 11 One Thirty Nine (ML 6-1)
# 12 Fighting for Grace (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Stack Em High (ML 8-1) and # 14 High Powered (ML 3-1)
Valid Storm took the Place at this class level last time out, and Valid Storm could be quickest here. Glitter Cat and Fred's Country Boy filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out.
Gray Donovan could rebound going third off the layoff. Mine N Yours could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 She Wants More (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Liner (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lady Rubi (ML 15-1)
# 3 Delightful Diamond (ML 15-1)
# 5 La Coyota (ML 30-1)
# 6 Legend Bound (ML 50-1)
# 7 Timely Miss (ML 20-1)
# 8 Bay of Fables (ML 10-1)
# 9 Senctuaire Spot (ML 30-1)
# 10 My Girl Rocket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Kylies Charm (ML 5-1)
# 12 Mikayla Attack (ML 5-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 I'm Warning You (ML 5-1)
She Wants More and Liner are both taking a step up on the class ladder, having each defeated N2L company last time out (in separate contests). Worth noting is that Kylies Charm is racing here above her conditions, as Kylies Charm has only one lifetime victory. Interestingly enough, Kylies Charm's one lifetime Win was last time out, back in September, against non-Claiming Maidens at Belterra Park; so make what you will of her being offered for $5k here. Anyway, I'll be using Kylies Charm as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field, excepting She Wants More and Liner.
RACE 7 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Howard of Luck (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1A American Solutions (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Queen's Palace (ML 10-1)
# 3 Gummer (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sonshine Pegasus (ML 15-1)
# 6 Reed O'Prado (ML 15-1)
# 3 Gummer (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sonshine Pegasus (ML 15-1)
# 6 Reed O'Prado (ML 15-1)
# 7 Toddles (ML 30-1)
# 8 Spining Indyniably (ML 6-1)
# 8 Spining Indyniably (ML 6-1)
# 10 Ingenico (ML 30-1)
# 11 Smuggler's Ghost (ML15-1)
# 11 Smuggler's Ghost (ML15-1)
Scratch # 9 Lucky Ole Sun (ML 6-1)
EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Artemus Citylimits (half of the Ramsey entry)
EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Artemus Citylimits (half of the Ramsey entry)
Of the three experienced runners in this field, Howard of Luck looks best, having finished in the Trifecta in each of his two career starts; last time out taking the Place behind a next out winner. Of the debut runners, I'll take the two-for-one Ken & Sarah Ramsey entry of Artemus Citylimits (trained by Wesley Ward) and American Solutions (trained by Mike Maker). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N1Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Shape of You (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 1 Drama Run (ML 7-2)
# 2 Hey Hey (ML 8-1)
# 12 Old Centre (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Love the Power (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Constancia (ML 12-1)
# 6 I'm So Munny (ML 15-1)
# 7 Oldfashioned Angel (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rulelikecleopatra (ML 8-1)
# 7 Oldfashioned Angel (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rulelikecleopatra (ML 8-1)
# 9 Storm Temple Pilot (ML 6-1)
# 10 Blazing Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 11 Princess Daniela (ML 8-1)
# 10 Blazing Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 11 Princess Daniela (ML 8-1)
This race is restricted to runners which have not won a race since August 29, 2019; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count; though scanning the Past Performances I don't see where that matters here.
Drama Run, Hey Hey, Shape of You, and Old Centre all exit a common race against N2Y company. Shape of You took the Show in that contest; and Shape of You could benefit from the cutback in distance. Drama Run was the Post Time Favorite in that event, and could rebound to a better effort. Both Hey Hey and Old Centre seem to be positioned to move up as well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 4 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,10 with 2,4 with 1,4 with 1,2,5,12 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,7,8,9,11,12 with 4 with 4 with 5 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 4 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 4 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11 $4.00
Total: $57.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 22, 2020
2/22/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 7 Myeerah (Final Odds 7.40) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 8 Heaven Escape (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Rio Bueno (13.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Cabot Trail (1.00*) - "A" Selection
I had considered putting Heaven Escape on the main ticket in the second leg; and I no doubt would have had I singled # 2 Cabot Trail in the nightcap. But I considered Heaven Escape's probability of winning Race 6 to be equivalent to the probability of # 7 Gift Wrapped (6.50) winning that event; and as I couldn't find a way to separate the two; or a valid reason to bust my budget by using them both; and having foolishly decided to go two deep in the finale, I left both Heaven Escape and Gift Wrapped off the big ticket. And the fact that Heaven Escape won for fun while Gift Wrapped finished dead last pretty much tells the story of how I had absolutely no handle on that contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 8 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $633.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 8 Heaven Escape (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Rio Bueno (13.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Cabot Trail (1.00*) - "A" Selection
I had considered putting Heaven Escape on the main ticket in the second leg; and I no doubt would have had I singled # 2 Cabot Trail in the nightcap. But I considered Heaven Escape's probability of winning Race 6 to be equivalent to the probability of # 7 Gift Wrapped (6.50) winning that event; and as I couldn't find a way to separate the two; or a valid reason to bust my budget by using them both; and having foolishly decided to go two deep in the finale, I left both Heaven Escape and Gift Wrapped off the big ticket. And the fact that Heaven Escape won for fun while Gift Wrapped finished dead last pretty much tells the story of how I had absolutely no handle on that contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 8 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $633.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/22/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience.” - George Washington
For those who may be interested, a quick note to advise that the Super High Five in Saturday's nightcap will include a carryover of over $4500; so best of luck to those of you who may be swimming in that pool. And with that bit of news out of the way let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Yellen (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 3 Ms. Dragonette (ML 12-1)
# 7 Myeerah (ML 10-1)
# 11 Miss Eliana (ML 20-1)
# 12 Sally O'Brien (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Slainte (ML 20-1)
# 4 Fixer Upper (ML 8-1)
# 5 Keep This Kitten (ML 8-1)
# 6 Occasion (ML 10-1)
# 8 Honorable Memory (ML 5-1)
# 10 Lele (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 9 Momos Humor (ML 12-1) as well as the Also Eligibles, # 13 Ithaca Falls (ML 3-1) and # 14 Sway to Go (ML 8-1)
These are three year old fillies, and the long and short of this analysis is that I don't think much of the experienced runners in this field. Therefore I'll be using just one who has competed before, the Wesley Ward trained Yellen, who I think could benefit from the turnback in distance. My "B" Selections are all four of the debut contestants in this group, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $30k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 My Sweet Baboo (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Time Warp (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Marcie's Candy (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stellar Stiletto (ML 6-1)
# 5 C J S Suzie Byu (ML 15-1)
# 6 Competitive Queen (ML 8-1)
# 7 Gift Wrapped (ML 8-1)
# 8 Heaven Escape (ML 9-2)
My Sweet Baboo finally graduated last time out, after having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four prior attempts. My Sweet Baboo is also shifting barns, having been claimed away from Trainer Mike Maker, and is now competing for Trainer Brett Santangelo. In my opinion, My Sweet Baboo, despite taking on winners for the first time, is the most talented runner in this field, and hopefully her victory last time out means that she's finally figured out the point of these exercises.
Time Warp took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Prince Arlo (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Rio Bueno (ML 8-1)
# 4 Pioche Gold (ML 6-1)
# 9 Junket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Creative Courage (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 All Hands On Deck (ML 9-2)
# 5 Dragster (ML 12-1)
# 6 Eyes On (ML 12-1)
# 8 Valycove (ML 8-1)
# 10 Top Credentials (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Contraction (ML 8-1)
Prince Arlo has finished in the Exacta in each of his two prior starts over this track, and Prince Arlo should benefit from the class drop. Rio Bueno could be the one running best late.
Pioche Gold is getting some class relief here, and Pioche Gold got his picture taken the last time that he competed over this track. Junket is returning to a class level more in line with his ability. Creative Courage took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 9 Wallet (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Twinklin Knight (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cj's Billy'sempire (ML 20-1)
# 5 Kickapoo (ML 6-1)
# 6 Harlan's Vador (ML 15-1)
# 7 Las Ana (ML 6-1)
# 8 Gatto Rosso (ML 15-1)
# 10 Kool Patriot (ML 30-1)
# 11 Howard Roark (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Raf (ML 20-1)
I was tempted to use Cabot Trail as my big ticket single in this leg; but ultimately I chickened out and decided to double the cost of my main play by making Wallet a "B" Selection. Cabot Trail took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Wallet looked much improved last time out while graduating by daylight. So I'll be going two deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,11,12 with 1,4 with 2,3,4,9,11 with 2,9 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,8,10 with 4 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,5,6,8,10 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 $4.00
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For those who may be interested, a quick note to advise that the Super High Five in Saturday's nightcap will include a carryover of over $4500; so best of luck to those of you who may be swimming in that pool. And with that bit of news out of the way let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Yellen (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 3 Ms. Dragonette (ML 12-1)
# 7 Myeerah (ML 10-1)
# 11 Miss Eliana (ML 20-1)
# 12 Sally O'Brien (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Slainte (ML 20-1)
# 4 Fixer Upper (ML 8-1)
# 5 Keep This Kitten (ML 8-1)
# 6 Occasion (ML 10-1)
# 8 Honorable Memory (ML 5-1)
# 10 Lele (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 9 Momos Humor (ML 12-1) as well as the Also Eligibles, # 13 Ithaca Falls (ML 3-1) and # 14 Sway to Go (ML 8-1)
These are three year old fillies, and the long and short of this analysis is that I don't think much of the experienced runners in this field. Therefore I'll be using just one who has competed before, the Wesley Ward trained Yellen, who I think could benefit from the turnback in distance. My "B" Selections are all four of the debut contestants in this group, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $30k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 My Sweet Baboo (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Time Warp (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Marcie's Candy (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stellar Stiletto (ML 6-1)
# 5 C J S Suzie Byu (ML 15-1)
# 6 Competitive Queen (ML 8-1)
# 7 Gift Wrapped (ML 8-1)
# 8 Heaven Escape (ML 9-2)
My Sweet Baboo finally graduated last time out, after having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four prior attempts. My Sweet Baboo is also shifting barns, having been claimed away from Trainer Mike Maker, and is now competing for Trainer Brett Santangelo. In my opinion, My Sweet Baboo, despite taking on winners for the first time, is the most talented runner in this field, and hopefully her victory last time out means that she's finally figured out the point of these exercises.
Time Warp took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Prince Arlo (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Rio Bueno (ML 8-1)
# 4 Pioche Gold (ML 6-1)
# 9 Junket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Creative Courage (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 All Hands On Deck (ML 9-2)
# 5 Dragster (ML 12-1)
# 6 Eyes On (ML 12-1)
# 8 Valycove (ML 8-1)
# 10 Top Credentials (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Contraction (ML 8-1)
Prince Arlo has finished in the Exacta in each of his two prior starts over this track, and Prince Arlo should benefit from the class drop. Rio Bueno could be the one running best late.
Pioche Gold is getting some class relief here, and Pioche Gold got his picture taken the last time that he competed over this track. Junket is returning to a class level more in line with his ability. Creative Courage took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 9 Wallet (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Twinklin Knight (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cj's Billy'sempire (ML 20-1)
# 5 Kickapoo (ML 6-1)
# 6 Harlan's Vador (ML 15-1)
# 7 Las Ana (ML 6-1)
# 8 Gatto Rosso (ML 15-1)
# 10 Kool Patriot (ML 30-1)
# 11 Howard Roark (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Raf (ML 20-1)
I was tempted to use Cabot Trail as my big ticket single in this leg; but ultimately I chickened out and decided to double the cost of my main play by making Wallet a "B" Selection. Cabot Trail took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Wallet looked much improved last time out while graduating by daylight. So I'll be going two deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,11,12 with 1,4 with 2,3,4,9,11 with 2,9 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,8,10 with 4 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,5,6,8,10 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 $4.00
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 15, 2020
2/15/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 11 Bigmancan (Final Odds 2.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 1 Rogue Too (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Jeannie's Beepbeep (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Cairn (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Going four deep (Race 5), five deep (Race 7), and three deep (Race 8) just to bring home the Post Time Favorite is not exactly what I would call stellar handicapping. On the other hand, getting home a non-Favorite "A" Selection in a contest in which I only used two (Race 6) is certainly a good thing; and, needless to say, catching them all on one ticket is the best thing of all. So thank the good Lord, Saturday was a day for me to collect instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 6 Joey B (6.50) - $437.30 Finish: 7th
# 9 The Other Breeze (5.40) - $308.00 Finish: 9th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 1 / 9 / 3 which paid $166.40 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $90.90 on my initial $75.50 investment; or approximate odds of 1.20-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 1 Rogue Too (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Jeannie's Beepbeep (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Cairn (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Going four deep (Race 5), five deep (Race 7), and three deep (Race 8) just to bring home the Post Time Favorite is not exactly what I would call stellar handicapping. On the other hand, getting home a non-Favorite "A" Selection in a contest in which I only used two (Race 6) is certainly a good thing; and, needless to say, catching them all on one ticket is the best thing of all. So thank the good Lord, Saturday was a day for me to collect instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 6 Joey B (6.50) - $437.30 Finish: 7th
# 9 The Other Breeze (5.40) - $308.00 Finish: 9th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 1 / 9 / 3 which paid $166.40 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $90.90 on my initial $75.50 investment; or approximate odds of 1.20-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/15/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview
"Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other one thing." - Abraham Lincoln
Hopefully you all had the opportunity to catch Friday evening's John Battaglia Memorial and the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes, preparatory contests for March 14th's Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Bourbonette Oaks; respectively (if you haven't yet seen them, or wish to view them again, those links above lead to YouTube replays of each race). Moving on to tonight's card, while there are no stakes on the program, there is the next best thing in the form of a no conditions Allowance. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 12 Sugoi (Morning Line 10-1)
B's
# 1 Hard Target (ML 4-1)
# 9 Working Title (ML 10-1)
# 11 Bigmancan (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Company Clown (ML 8-1)
# 3 Unwavering (ML 15-1)
# 4 Kobe Beach (ML 15-1)
# 5 Prime Jersey Town (ML 5-1)
# 6 Drakesboro Wildcat (ML 12-1)
# 7 Judge Johnny (ML 10-1)
# 10 Indian Springs (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Kitten's Man (ML 15-1) as well as the Also Eligible, # 13 Meister's Brew (ML 12-1)
First time starter Sugoi was sired by Karakontie (Jpn), whose stud fee was $10k; so the fact that Sugoi was purchased at auction as a yearling for $6k was certainly not good news to his breeder. But Sugoi, trained by Billy Morey, has shown some speed in his works; and Sugoi certainly did well to draw the outermost post for his debut. So I'm going to swing for a price and put Sugoi on the top of my contenders in this contest.
Hard Target showed some nice early speed in his debut last time out. Working Title, a debut runner sired by Honor Code, seems well meant here. Bigmancan took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) ALW NC - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Rogue Too (ML 3-1)
B's
# 8 Arch of Troy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Miss Mosaic (ML 5-1)
# 3 Flash n' Dance (ML 20-1)
# 4 In the Mood (ML 5-1)
# 5 Goiaba (ML 10-1)
# 6 Red Dane (Ity) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Complicit (ML 6-1)
# 9 Melissa Jane (GB) (ML 6-1)
This is an Allowance Race with no conditions; so if you've got a filly or mare, four years old and upward, and want to run her, you're free to do so here.
Rogue Too, winner of her last four contests as well as six of her seven career tries over this track, should benefit from the rail draw, as Rogue Too projects to be the speed of the speed. Arch of Troy, going first time for the barn of Trainer William Cowans, won by as many as she wanted last time out in her first try over a synthetic surface. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 New Roo (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Rumandice (M 6-1)
# 5 Tip At Tapit (ML 6-1)
# 9 Jeannie's Beepbeep (ML 9-2)
# 10 Naughty Joker (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1A Tuxedo Lemon (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tiz Trish (ML 30-1)
# 4 Twin Channel (ML 8-1)
# 6 Tobago (ML 8-1)
# 8 Carina (ML 20-1)
# 11 Lessons from Avery (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 City Diva (ML 20-1)
New Roo appears to have a class edge over the rest of the field, and Trainer Tommy Drury tends to do well with runners returning off an extended leave. Rumandice ran well last time out in her first try for Trainer Kenny McPeek, and could move up off that effort.
Tip At Tapit could improve going third off the layoff. Jeannie's Beepbeep, victorious in each of her two prior career starts, seems to have the breeding to handle two turns. Naughty Joker, winner of 2019's Bourbonette Oaks, took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Joey B (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 3 Cairn (ML 3-1)
# 9 The Other Breeze (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Gotsomemojo (ML 8-1)
# 2 Heart in Hand (ML 5-1)
# 4 Jennysregalman (ML 20-1)
# 5 Jingle Me This (ML 15-1)
# 7 Time Arches On (ML 30-1)
# 8 Chuckmate (ML 15-1)
# 10 Trockette (ML 12-1)
# 11 Geh Schnell (ML 6-1)
# 12 Primed for Talent (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Valycove (ML 5-1) and # 14 Runningfromthefeds (ML 3-1)
This race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since August 15, 2019; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count; which is why Joey B is eligible is free to contend here.
Joey B, winner last time out, is now two-for-two lifetime over this track; and Trainer James Watkins tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Carin should improve by going third off the layoff, and the class drop can only help. The Other Breeze could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 12 with 1 with 7 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,9,11,12 with 1,8 with 2,5,7,9,10 with 3,6,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,7,10 with 1 with 7 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1 with 1,3,4,6,8,11 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1 with 7 with 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,12 $4.50
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Hopefully you all had the opportunity to catch Friday evening's John Battaglia Memorial and the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes, preparatory contests for March 14th's Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Bourbonette Oaks; respectively (if you haven't yet seen them, or wish to view them again, those links above lead to YouTube replays of each race). Moving on to tonight's card, while there are no stakes on the program, there is the next best thing in the form of a no conditions Allowance. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 12 Sugoi (Morning Line 10-1)
B's
# 1 Hard Target (ML 4-1)
# 9 Working Title (ML 10-1)
# 11 Bigmancan (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Company Clown (ML 8-1)
# 3 Unwavering (ML 15-1)
# 4 Kobe Beach (ML 15-1)
# 5 Prime Jersey Town (ML 5-1)
# 6 Drakesboro Wildcat (ML 12-1)
# 7 Judge Johnny (ML 10-1)
# 10 Indian Springs (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Kitten's Man (ML 15-1) as well as the Also Eligible, # 13 Meister's Brew (ML 12-1)
First time starter Sugoi was sired by Karakontie (Jpn), whose stud fee was $10k; so the fact that Sugoi was purchased at auction as a yearling for $6k was certainly not good news to his breeder. But Sugoi, trained by Billy Morey, has shown some speed in his works; and Sugoi certainly did well to draw the outermost post for his debut. So I'm going to swing for a price and put Sugoi on the top of my contenders in this contest.
Hard Target showed some nice early speed in his debut last time out. Working Title, a debut runner sired by Honor Code, seems well meant here. Bigmancan took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) ALW NC - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Rogue Too (ML 3-1)
B's
# 8 Arch of Troy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Miss Mosaic (ML 5-1)
# 3 Flash n' Dance (ML 20-1)
# 4 In the Mood (ML 5-1)
# 5 Goiaba (ML 10-1)
# 6 Red Dane (Ity) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Complicit (ML 6-1)
# 9 Melissa Jane (GB) (ML 6-1)
This is an Allowance Race with no conditions; so if you've got a filly or mare, four years old and upward, and want to run her, you're free to do so here.
Rogue Too, winner of her last four contests as well as six of her seven career tries over this track, should benefit from the rail draw, as Rogue Too projects to be the speed of the speed. Arch of Troy, going first time for the barn of Trainer William Cowans, won by as many as she wanted last time out in her first try over a synthetic surface. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 New Roo (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Rumandice (M 6-1)
# 5 Tip At Tapit (ML 6-1)
# 9 Jeannie's Beepbeep (ML 9-2)
# 10 Naughty Joker (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1A Tuxedo Lemon (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tiz Trish (ML 30-1)
# 4 Twin Channel (ML 8-1)
# 6 Tobago (ML 8-1)
# 8 Carina (ML 20-1)
# 11 Lessons from Avery (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 City Diva (ML 20-1)
New Roo appears to have a class edge over the rest of the field, and Trainer Tommy Drury tends to do well with runners returning off an extended leave. Rumandice ran well last time out in her first try for Trainer Kenny McPeek, and could move up off that effort.
Tip At Tapit could improve going third off the layoff. Jeannie's Beepbeep, victorious in each of her two prior career starts, seems to have the breeding to handle two turns. Naughty Joker, winner of 2019's Bourbonette Oaks, took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Joey B (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 3 Cairn (ML 3-1)
# 9 The Other Breeze (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Gotsomemojo (ML 8-1)
# 2 Heart in Hand (ML 5-1)
# 4 Jennysregalman (ML 20-1)
# 5 Jingle Me This (ML 15-1)
# 7 Time Arches On (ML 30-1)
# 8 Chuckmate (ML 15-1)
# 10 Trockette (ML 12-1)
# 11 Geh Schnell (ML 6-1)
# 12 Primed for Talent (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Valycove (ML 5-1) and # 14 Runningfromthefeds (ML 3-1)
This race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since August 15, 2019; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count; which is why Joey B is eligible is free to contend here.
Joey B, winner last time out, is now two-for-two lifetime over this track; and Trainer James Watkins tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Carin should improve by going third off the layoff, and the class drop can only help. The Other Breeze could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 12 with 1 with 7 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,9,11,12 with 1,8 with 2,5,7,9,10 with 3,6,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,7,10 with 1 with 7 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1 with 1,3,4,6,8,11 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1 with 7 with 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,12 $4.50
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 8, 2020
2/8/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 9 Estill (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Willy I Am (6.00) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Riverboat Gambler (0.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Promised Fame (6.10) - "A" Selection
Prior to posting my selections for Saturday evening, I gave serious thought to making either or both # 9 Estill in Race 5 or # 5 Going for Gold (2.90) in Race 7 big ticket singles. While such a move certainly would have made my play much less expensive, it also (depending upon how I chose) could have made it unprofitable. So, needless to say, I'm pleased with my decision to go with a wider spread in those two events, as Saturday became a day for me to collect instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Bivian B (6.00) - $109.65 Finish: 7th
# 3 Matzo Bella (1.90*) - $90.60 Finish: 5th
# 10 Comecatchme (13.00) - $460.15 Finish: 4th
# 11 The Ash Factor (9.30) - $235.65 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 2 / 7 / 7 which paid $149.00 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $68.50 on my initial $80.50 investment; or approximate odds of 0.85-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 2 Willy I Am (6.00) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Riverboat Gambler (0.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Promised Fame (6.10) - "A" Selection
Prior to posting my selections for Saturday evening, I gave serious thought to making either or both # 9 Estill in Race 5 or # 5 Going for Gold (2.90) in Race 7 big ticket singles. While such a move certainly would have made my play much less expensive, it also (depending upon how I chose) could have made it unprofitable. So, needless to say, I'm pleased with my decision to go with a wider spread in those two events, as Saturday became a day for me to collect instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Bivian B (6.00) - $109.65 Finish: 7th
# 3 Matzo Bella (1.90*) - $90.60 Finish: 5th
# 10 Comecatchme (13.00) - $460.15 Finish: 4th
# 11 The Ash Factor (9.30) - $235.65 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 2 / 7 / 7 which paid $149.00 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $68.50 on my initial $80.50 investment; or approximate odds of 0.85-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/8/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview
"I want to deal with what's in front of me now to the best of my abilities, and sometimes that's not very good. But a lot of the days it is really great." - Ringo Starr
Cold and dry is the forecast for Saturday evening in Florence, Kentucky; and that's pretty much all I have for an introduction. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Estill (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
# 3 Lune Rousse (ML 12-1)
# 12 Madam Pie (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Finer Things (ML 15-1)
# 2 Complete (ML 10-1)
# 4 Kitten On Call (ML 5-1)
# 5 Lynda D (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lil Hitchhiker (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kreative Kisser (ML 30-1)
# 8 Just a Look (ML 8-1)
# 10 Athary (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grand Slam Getaway (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Bird Key (ML 20-1)
Estill has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts. Lune Rousse took the Show at this class level two starts back, and could move up going third off the layoff.
Madam Pie, stablemate of Estill under Trainer Tom Drury, could improve in her third career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Durrett Lane (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Willy I Am (ML 4-1)
# 9 Muny Me Too (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Kitten for Granny (ML 12-1)
# 4 Special Concoction (ML 20-1)
# 5 Double Deringer (ML 6-1)
# 6 Montezuma Express (ML 12-1)
# 7 On John (ML 15-1)
# 8 Let's Ride (ML 6-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won three races since February 8, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, then he's eligible to run in this race. If a runner has four career Wins or more, then no more than two of those Wins could have come in the last twenty-four months. For the record Willy I Am, On John, Let's Ride, and Muny Met Too are the four runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Durrett Lane enters this contest having won last time out at big odds. Willy I Am quit early last time out; perhaps Willy I Am just needed that race.
Muny I Am won by daylight last time out. Muny I Am is young and lightly raced enough that he could continue to improve. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Going for Gold (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Bizzy Ride (ML 5-2)
# 7 Riverboat Gambler (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 Boom Five Thousand (ML 15-1)
# 6 Equal Justice (ML 15-1)
# 9 Lea Ridge (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Ammunition (ML 20-1), # 2 Attuck (ML 15-1), and # 8 Flatster (ML 15-1)
Going for Gold took the Show over classier competition last time out. Bizzy Ride graduated last time out while running with a price tag on his head; and while I would be very hesitant to use such in an N1X Allowance, this is an N2L; so Bizzy Ride just might be able to repeat.
Riverboat Gambler took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Promised Fame (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Bivian B (ML 5-1)
# 3 Matzo Bella (ML 7-2)
# 10 Comecatchme (ML 15-1)
# 11 The Ash Factor (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 She Got It (ML 50-1)
# 4 Gio's Cookie Star (ML 20-1)
# 5 Analyze This Cat (ML 6-1)
# 6 Run Like Rev (ML 15-1)
# 8 Cagey Lady (ML 30-1)
# 9 Princess Kiah (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 12 Fire Command (ML 6-1), but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Marie's Mandate (ML 4-1) and # 14 Boomerang Baby (ML 15-1), because they're scratched too.
Promised Fame took the Place against more expensive stock last time out. Bivian B took the Show at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Matzo Bella disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out; perhaps the rider change will help. Comecatchme took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit while going around two turns.
The Ash Factor was in over head last time out, and should benefit from the drop into more realistic company. The Ash Factor could also improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 1 with 5 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,9,12 with 1,2,9 with 4,5,7 with 1,3,7,10,11 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 with 1 with 5 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8 with 5 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 3,6,9 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 5 with 2,4,5,6,8,9 $3.00
Total: $80.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Cold and dry is the forecast for Saturday evening in Florence, Kentucky; and that's pretty much all I have for an introduction. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Estill (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
# 3 Lune Rousse (ML 12-1)
# 12 Madam Pie (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Finer Things (ML 15-1)
# 2 Complete (ML 10-1)
# 4 Kitten On Call (ML 5-1)
# 5 Lynda D (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lil Hitchhiker (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kreative Kisser (ML 30-1)
# 8 Just a Look (ML 8-1)
# 10 Athary (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grand Slam Getaway (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Bird Key (ML 20-1)
Estill has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts. Lune Rousse took the Show at this class level two starts back, and could move up going third off the layoff.
Madam Pie, stablemate of Estill under Trainer Tom Drury, could improve in her third career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Durrett Lane (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Willy I Am (ML 4-1)
# 9 Muny Me Too (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Kitten for Granny (ML 12-1)
# 4 Special Concoction (ML 20-1)
# 5 Double Deringer (ML 6-1)
# 6 Montezuma Express (ML 12-1)
# 7 On John (ML 15-1)
# 8 Let's Ride (ML 6-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won three races since February 8, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, then he's eligible to run in this race. If a runner has four career Wins or more, then no more than two of those Wins could have come in the last twenty-four months. For the record Willy I Am, On John, Let's Ride, and Muny Met Too are the four runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Durrett Lane enters this contest having won last time out at big odds. Willy I Am quit early last time out; perhaps Willy I Am just needed that race.
Muny I Am won by daylight last time out. Muny I Am is young and lightly raced enough that he could continue to improve. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Going for Gold (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Bizzy Ride (ML 5-2)
# 7 Riverboat Gambler (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 Boom Five Thousand (ML 15-1)
# 6 Equal Justice (ML 15-1)
# 9 Lea Ridge (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Ammunition (ML 20-1), # 2 Attuck (ML 15-1), and # 8 Flatster (ML 15-1)
Going for Gold took the Show over classier competition last time out. Bizzy Ride graduated last time out while running with a price tag on his head; and while I would be very hesitant to use such in an N1X Allowance, this is an N2L; so Bizzy Ride just might be able to repeat.
Riverboat Gambler took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Promised Fame (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Bivian B (ML 5-1)
# 3 Matzo Bella (ML 7-2)
# 10 Comecatchme (ML 15-1)
# 11 The Ash Factor (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 She Got It (ML 50-1)
# 4 Gio's Cookie Star (ML 20-1)
# 5 Analyze This Cat (ML 6-1)
# 6 Run Like Rev (ML 15-1)
# 8 Cagey Lady (ML 30-1)
# 9 Princess Kiah (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 12 Fire Command (ML 6-1), but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Marie's Mandate (ML 4-1) and # 14 Boomerang Baby (ML 15-1), because they're scratched too.
Promised Fame took the Place against more expensive stock last time out. Bivian B took the Show at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Matzo Bella disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out; perhaps the rider change will help. Comecatchme took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit while going around two turns.
The Ash Factor was in over head last time out, and should benefit from the drop into more realistic company. The Ash Factor could also improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 1 with 5 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,9,12 with 1,2,9 with 4,5,7 with 1,3,7,10,11 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 with 1 with 5 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8 with 5 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 3,6,9 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 5 with 2,4,5,6,8,9 $3.00
Total: $80.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 1, 2020
2/1/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 9 Flash n' Dance (Final Odds 3.90) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Grams Revenge (6.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Royal Mesa (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Icy Street (8.60) - "C" Selection
Back on December 21, when they were competing under the same Clm $7.5k N2L conditions as they did tonight, I had used both Icy Street and # 12 Lil Pistola (40.00) on my main Late Pick Four ticket as "B" Selections, just to watch them run seventh and sixth, respectively. Nothing that either horse had done that night, nor in their races since that December evening, would have led me to consider using either of them tonight in any capacity; which is unfortunate, as Icy Street and Lil Pistola joined with Post Time Favorite (and "A" Selection) # 5 Cabot Trail (2.00*) for a Race 8 Trifecta that paid $307.80 for a fifty cent wager. I hope at least one of you reading this had it; because I sure didn't.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 2 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $438.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 2 Grams Revenge (6.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Royal Mesa (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Icy Street (8.60) - "C" Selection
Back on December 21, when they were competing under the same Clm $7.5k N2L conditions as they did tonight, I had used both Icy Street and # 12 Lil Pistola (40.00) on my main Late Pick Four ticket as "B" Selections, just to watch them run seventh and sixth, respectively. Nothing that either horse had done that night, nor in their races since that December evening, would have led me to consider using either of them tonight in any capacity; which is unfortunate, as Icy Street and Lil Pistola joined with Post Time Favorite (and "A" Selection) # 5 Cabot Trail (2.00*) for a Race 8 Trifecta that paid $307.80 for a fifty cent wager. I hope at least one of you reading this had it; because I sure didn't.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 2 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $438.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/1/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview
"In February there is everything to hope for and nothing to regret." - Patience Strong
The Road to the Kentucky Derby barrels on in earnest; or, more accurately, in New York, Florida, and California, with the running of the Withers, the Holy Bull, and the Robert B Lewis, respectively. Depending on when you're reading this, hopefully you have done well or will do well playing those contests; and, if not, hopefully we can all get out tonight, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Kojo's Queen (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 6 Novella (ML 5-2)
# 8 I Likem (ML 7-2)
# 9 Flash n' Dance (ML 7-2)
# 11 Dance the Day Away (ML 10-1)
# 12 Curlin Coed (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Girls Got Track (ML 12-1)
# 3 Court the Storm (ML 30-1)
# 4 Positive Vibes (ML 20-1)
# 5 Going to Temple (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hydra's Hope (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Matt's Honey (ML 20-1)
Kojo's Queen took the Place against classier stock at Churchill Downs last time out; now it's just a question of how Kojo's Queen will take to the surface. Novella is another trying the synthetic surface for the first time, but who seems to have a class edge over the field.
I Likem, Flash n' Dance, and Dance the Day Away are moving up the class ladder, each having won last time out against N2L company. Curlin Coed seems to fit the conditions well, and Curlin Coed was victorious in one of her two prior tries over this track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Mountain Melodies (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Last Bridle (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Grams Revenge (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hoptown Hope (ML 20-1)
# 5 Honey Bourbon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Fred's Baby Doll (ML 5-1)
# 7 Princess Marykate (ML 5-1)
# 8 Kings Big Road (ML 15-1)
# 9 West Virginia Pam (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dear Theodosia (ML 12-1)
# 11 Presi Plain Jane (ML 20-1)
# 12 Yellow Bird (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Madam Novetzke (ML 4-1) and # 14 Thirst Trap (ML 4-1)
Mountain Melodies took the Place at this class level last time out. Last Bridle could move up with the class drop; perhaps Last Bridle getting the blinkers removed could help as well. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Royal Mesa (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Chasin Charlie (ML 20-1)
# 2 Unite the Masses (ML 30-1)
# 3 Faversham (ML 15-1)
# 5 Aqualityindividual (ML 20-1)
# 6 J W Ruckus (ML 6-1)
# 7 Majestic Valley (ML 8-1)
# 9 Giant Honor (ML 20-1)
# 10 Never Even Called (ML 6-1)
# 11 Thomas Selby (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Court and Spark (ML 20-1)
Royal Mesa took the Place in the $75k Prairie Bayou last time out, his first time competing on this surface. I've made Royal Mesa my big ticket single in this play not so much because I think Royal Mesa is much the best, but because there are several just a notch below Royal Mesa who would have to be considered contenders were I to go more than one deep in this leg. So facing the choice of using one or using five, I decided to single, with all others being relegated to backup "C" Selection status.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Command Code (ML 10-1)
# 3 True to Dixie (ML 7-2)
# 4 Las Ana (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Kickapoo (ML 12-1)
# 6 Treasure Mine (ML 20-1)
# 7 Twinkling Knight (ML 12-1)
# 8 Idaho Tornado (ML 12-1)
# 9 Icy Street (ML 15-1)
# 10 Raf (ML 20-1)
# 11 Corporal Cat (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lil Pistola (ML 30-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Last Spring (ML 15-1) and # 14 Libor Plus (ML 8-1)
Cabot Trail is getting some serious class relief from his last time out; but the fact is that Cabot Trail was in way over his head last time out, and this is a more realistic company within which for him to compete.
Command Code could be speed on the rail. True to Dixie could be the one running best late. Las Ana has one Win in forty tries in his career; which means that tossing him makes much more sense than putting him on the big ticket. But Las Ana has only competed twice over this track; and he's taken the Show in both of them; and I singled in the previous leg. So onto the main ticket goes Las Ana, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9,11,12 with 1,4 with 4 with 1,3,4,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 4 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 4 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 5 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00
Total: $41.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Road to the Kentucky Derby barrels on in earnest; or, more accurately, in New York, Florida, and California, with the running of the Withers, the Holy Bull, and the Robert B Lewis, respectively. Depending on when you're reading this, hopefully you have done well or will do well playing those contests; and, if not, hopefully we can all get out tonight, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Kojo's Queen (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 6 Novella (ML 5-2)
# 8 I Likem (ML 7-2)
# 9 Flash n' Dance (ML 7-2)
# 11 Dance the Day Away (ML 10-1)
# 12 Curlin Coed (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Girls Got Track (ML 12-1)
# 3 Court the Storm (ML 30-1)
# 4 Positive Vibes (ML 20-1)
# 5 Going to Temple (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hydra's Hope (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Matt's Honey (ML 20-1)
Kojo's Queen took the Place against classier stock at Churchill Downs last time out; now it's just a question of how Kojo's Queen will take to the surface. Novella is another trying the synthetic surface for the first time, but who seems to have a class edge over the field.
I Likem, Flash n' Dance, and Dance the Day Away are moving up the class ladder, each having won last time out against N2L company. Curlin Coed seems to fit the conditions well, and Curlin Coed was victorious in one of her two prior tries over this track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Mountain Melodies (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Last Bridle (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Grams Revenge (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hoptown Hope (ML 20-1)
# 5 Honey Bourbon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Fred's Baby Doll (ML 5-1)
# 7 Princess Marykate (ML 5-1)
# 8 Kings Big Road (ML 15-1)
# 9 West Virginia Pam (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dear Theodosia (ML 12-1)
# 11 Presi Plain Jane (ML 20-1)
# 12 Yellow Bird (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Madam Novetzke (ML 4-1) and # 14 Thirst Trap (ML 4-1)
Mountain Melodies took the Place at this class level last time out. Last Bridle could move up with the class drop; perhaps Last Bridle getting the blinkers removed could help as well. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Royal Mesa (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Chasin Charlie (ML 20-1)
# 2 Unite the Masses (ML 30-1)
# 3 Faversham (ML 15-1)
# 5 Aqualityindividual (ML 20-1)
# 6 J W Ruckus (ML 6-1)
# 7 Majestic Valley (ML 8-1)
# 9 Giant Honor (ML 20-1)
# 10 Never Even Called (ML 6-1)
# 11 Thomas Selby (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Court and Spark (ML 20-1)
Royal Mesa took the Place in the $75k Prairie Bayou last time out, his first time competing on this surface. I've made Royal Mesa my big ticket single in this play not so much because I think Royal Mesa is much the best, but because there are several just a notch below Royal Mesa who would have to be considered contenders were I to go more than one deep in this leg. So facing the choice of using one or using five, I decided to single, with all others being relegated to backup "C" Selection status.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Command Code (ML 10-1)
# 3 True to Dixie (ML 7-2)
# 4 Las Ana (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Kickapoo (ML 12-1)
# 6 Treasure Mine (ML 20-1)
# 7 Twinkling Knight (ML 12-1)
# 8 Idaho Tornado (ML 12-1)
# 9 Icy Street (ML 15-1)
# 10 Raf (ML 20-1)
# 11 Corporal Cat (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lil Pistola (ML 30-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Last Spring (ML 15-1) and # 14 Libor Plus (ML 8-1)
Cabot Trail is getting some serious class relief from his last time out; but the fact is that Cabot Trail was in way over his head last time out, and this is a more realistic company within which for him to compete.
Command Code could be speed on the rail. True to Dixie could be the one running best late. Las Ana has one Win in forty tries in his career; which means that tossing him makes much more sense than putting him on the big ticket. But Las Ana has only competed twice over this track; and he's taken the Show in both of them; and I singled in the previous leg. So onto the main ticket goes Las Ana, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9,11,12 with 1,4 with 4 with 1,3,4,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 4 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 4 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 5 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00
Total: $41.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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