Thursday, April 30, 2015

2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." - Will Rogers

Just a few more days to the Kentucky Derby; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark.  Good Lord willing I will be spending the first Saturday in May at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, Nevada, enjoying great service along with the company of great friends.  I may be able to get a few Tweets out; but I anticipate that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.

Before I go, allow me to point you to a few of the free Kentucky Derby resources available online.  Free DRF Formulator Past Performances for both the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks can be had here, along with some fine video analysis by Dan Illman and Matt Bernier.  Free Brisnet PPs are also available online for the Kentucky Oaks (scroll down to May 1, Churchill Downs - Race 11) and the Kentucky Derby (scroll down to May 2, Churchill Downs - Race 11).  Finally, if you're willing to divulge your email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2015 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Ron White, Mike Battaglia, Bob Neumeier, and others.

As to the Derby itself; hey, remember how easy it was last year to pick California Chrome?  This year, not so easy.  The points system did what it was designed to do, giving us a Derby field containing all those qualified to win this race with very little dross.  Indeed, this field has almost the feel of a Breeders' Cup race, in that you could pick any one of at least a half dozen runners and be confident that you were backing a legitimate contender.

# 18 American Pharoah (Morning Line 5-2) and # 8 Dortmund (ML 3-1) will no doubt be the public's top two choices when the gates open, and I expect to be using both in my multi-race wagering.  I also expect to be using some of # 6 Mubtaahij (ML 20-1).  Yes, I know that past UAE Derby participants did not fare well in their respective Kentucky Derby appearances.  But Mubtaahij has that Animal Kingdom angle going for him; not the surface switch (since Meydan now has a real dirt track) but the overwhelming edge over the rest of the field that Mubtaahij, like Animal Kingdom in 2011, has in his Tomlinson Distance Rating. 

But the key horse that I'll be using in the featured race on Saturday is # 3 Materiality (ML 12-1).  No, Materiality didn't race as a two year old, so he'll have the curse of Apollo to overcome.  But despite his inexperience, there's no doubt in my mind that Materiality ran the best Kentucky Derby prep race this year.  Speed was coming back all day at Gulfstream Park on the day of the Florida Derby, yet no one was able to gain on inch on Materiality as he ran through the stretch.  In addition, commentators throughout the day that Saturday were talking about how the Gulfstream Park rail was dead and the place to be was the outside; yet it was Materiality, on the inside, who was able to hold off Upstart, on the outside, to cross the wire first.  My only concern with Materiality is that I don't like the draw of Post Position 3; but while that may temper how much I wager with him on top, I have no doubt that Materiality is the runner that I'll be leaning most heavily upon.

So there you have it.  Remember above all the most important thing is to have fun this Saturday.  This is your day, racing fans, so make the most of it.  Enjoy!

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, April 26, 2015

4/26/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 5 Chati's On Top (Final Odds 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Rocko's Wheel (4.10)- No Selection
Race 7 - The Wilshire - # 4 Blingismything (2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Fancy Shoes (3.60) - "A" Selection

We had no part of Rocko's Wheel, who was dropping down out of state bred Stakes competition, and it cost it us.  Indeed, Race 6 was a contest on which we clearly did not have a handle, as none of the three selections on our ticket was able to finish in the money.  So we miss one of the four; but as you already know, that's one too many, as that's all it takes to turn our tickets into trash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 6 / 4 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $496.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/26/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana." - Groucho Marx

Hard as it may seem to believe, today marks the end of the final weekend in April.  So let's turn our attention to The Great Race Place, and see if we can pad our bankrolls for the Kentucky Derby by taking a shot at Santa Anita's Late Pick Four.

RACE 5 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Downhill Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Divina Comedia (Fr) (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 5 Chati's On Top (ML 9-2)
# 12 Provaenance (ML 5-1)

# 7 Thewandaofu (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Divina Comedia (Fr), stakes placed in France, makes her North American debut for Trainer Julio Canani.  Divina Comedia has a closing style that tends to do well in contests down the hill, and the bullet work she posted over the main track on the 19th suggests that she's ready to roll.

Chati's On Top missed winning by just a neck the last time that she competed at this class level, though that was on the flats at Del Mar.  Provence missed winning by a nose at this class level the last time she charged down the hill.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Missing Groom (ML 4-1)
# 4 Old Man Lake (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Brave Act (ML 3-1)

Old Man Lake enters this contest with back-to-back Wins against open, non-restricted claimers.  Old Man Lake also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Normally such qualities on the resume would make Old Man Lake a single on our tickets; however, Old Man Lake was claimed last time out, and the switch to a trainer (Rafael Beccera) with a lower Winning Percentage than his predecessor (Steve Miyadi) is a concern.

Missing Groom took the Place last time out against state bred Allowance company over this main track.  Brave Act drops in after beating non-state restricted company, albeit the N2L kind.

RACE 7 - (F) The Wilshire (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Birdlover (GB) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Blingismything (ML 9-2)
# 7 Indecise (ML 9-2)

# 1 Moulin de Mougin (ML 4-1) and # 2 Thegirlinthatsong (ML 8-1) have been scratched.

Birdlover (GB) misses by just a head of entering this event with a four race winning streak.  Birdlover has finished in the Exacta each of the eight times that she has competed on the Santa Anita grass.

Blingismything has taken the Show in each of her last two contests, both in Graded Stakes.  Indecise was getting to Birdlover last time out charging down the hill; perhaps she can turn the tables today on the flats.

RACE 8 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Fancy Shoes (ML 7-2)
# 9 Dually Affirmed (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Blame It On Tekela (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 4-1)

Fancy Shoes took the Show at this class level last time out, after taking the Show against more expensive prior to that.  Fancy Shoes should improve in his first try around two turns.

Dually Affirmed has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit earned on the grass.  Dually Affirmed seems to have made a habit of getting bumped at the break; hopefully the drop in class will allow him to break quick enough to avoid being pinballed.

Blame It On Tekela took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  Lucky Shoes to Win took the Place against move expensive the only prior time that he competed around two turns.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,4 with 8 with 5,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,8,12 with 1,2,4 with 4,7,8 with 1,4,5,9 $54.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:34 EDT / 2:34 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, April 25, 2015

4/25/15 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Results

Race 6 - # 1 One Proud Dude (Final Odds 27.10) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Cordero (Ire) (0.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Majestic Breeze (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Miami Mile - # 3 Rerun (21.00) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Powder Break - # 9 Baffle Me (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 4 Be a Bull (6.60) - "B" Selection

The Equibase charts to which I linked above currently give the track condition as Firm for all the turf races and Fast for all the dirt races; that's definitely not accurate, so hopefully the good people at Equibase.com will soon correct that.  The dirt track in fact did go from Fast to Sloppy, while the turf course made the trek from Firm to Good to Yielding as the rains came down in South Florida.  Indeed, the softening of the grass led to Trainer Christophe Clement scratching his runners from the two stakes contests after the beginning of the sequence, thus giving those (like us) with the Clement horses on our tickets the Post Time Favorite in their place in each race.  The change, as you can see, had no effect on us, as we were knocked out right in the very first leg.  We wind up with four winners; an excellent showing when playing a Pick Four, but not so much when trying to take down the Rainbow Six.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of  1 / 7 / 8 / 3 / 9 / 4  were rewarded with a $14,504.92 payout for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/25/15 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview

Gulfstream Park is having a mandatory payout of its seven figure Rainbow Six pool Saturday; and what better way to pad our bankroll in preparation for next week's Kentucky Derby!  So with that, let's take a run at the East Coast version of the Great White Whale, and see if we can get a slice of that Rainbow Six pie.

RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 B. F. Forever (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 11 Rocket Boulevard (ML 12-1)
# 12 Lavandero (ML 5-1)

B. F. Forever took a large step forward last time out, missing by just a head of graduating at this class level.  Levandero took the Place the last time he competed at this class level.

Rocket Boulevard was a winner over this main track back in November, paying $53.40.  He even competed a few times against winners.  But then the test results of that November contest came back positive, Rocket Boulevard was retroactively disqualified from that race, and now he has to graduate all over again.  I think Rocket Boulevard has enough of an edge in early speed over the rest of this field to be a legitimate threat today.

RACE 7 - MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Boca Scuttlebutt (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Bull Ensign (ML 6-1)
# 7 Cordero (Ire) (ML 5-2)

Boca Scuttlebutt took the Show at this class level last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  Cordero (Ire), trained by Todd Pletcher, showed good form in his North American debut at Saratoga as a two year old last November.  Presuming normal maturation over the intervening months, Cordero looks like a legitimate contender here. 

Boca Scuttlebutt, Cordero, and a few others in the field project to be up front early.  If the pace should collapse, Bull Ensign appears to be the most likely candidate to be running best late.

RACE 8 - Clm $30k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 All My Memories (ML 7-2)
# 8 Majestic Breeze (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

All My Memories took the Place at this class level last time out.  Majestic Breeze, possessor of the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, gets some class relief off his last effort.

RACE 9 - The Miami Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Middleburg (ML 9-2)
# 6 Grand Tito (ML 7-2)

B's

None

Scratch # 11 Red Vine (ML 2-1) who was entered for the main track only.

Middleburg enters this contest with a two race winning streak, and has shown good tactical speed in his prior efforts.  Grand Tito has finished in the money in four of his last five starts, all Graded Stakes.  Note that Grand Tito won last year's running of this event, though it was taken off the turf and run at what was formerly known as Calder Race Course, rather than here at Gulfstream Park.

RACE 10 - (F) The Powder Break $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Baffle Me (ML 7-2)
# 10 Discreet Marq (ML 7-5)

B's

None

# 7 Double Secret (ML 20-1) has been scratched.  Also scratch # 12 Montana Native (ML 2-1) who was entered for the main track only.

Baffle Me closed well last time out in the Grade 2 Honey Fox over this turf course at today's distance.  Discreet Marq, trained by Christophe Clement, makes her first start of 2015, having taken the Show in the Grade 1 Matriarch last time out.

RACE 11 - Clm $8k N1Y - Seven Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Bluegrass Jam (ML 3-1)
# 7 Megalith (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Be a Bull (ML 5-1)
# 9 Wrol Up (ML 8-1)

The conditions restrict this event to those who have not won a race since October 25, 2014.

Bluegrass Jam has taken the Show against more expensive, non-conditioned claimers in each of his last two races.  Megalith missed by just a half length at this class level last time out.  Megalith also goes first off the claim for Trainer Norm Pointer, who wins with twenty percent of such.

Be a Bull took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Wrol Up took the Show against cheaper, but non-conditioned, claimers last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 2 with 2 with 3,8 with 1,6 with 9,10 with 3,7 $3.20

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 2,11,12 with 1,2,7 with 3,8 with 1,6 with 9,10 with 3,4,7,9 $57.60

Total: $60.80

Post Time for Race 6 is 3:30 EDT / 12:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

4/22/15 Turf Paradise Pick Five - Results

Race 4 - # 1 Mt. Rainbeau Girl (Final Odds 8.00) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 5 Truckin (3.00) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 2 I Am Awesome (1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Northern Poptart (6.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Mr. Goodfellow (14.20) - No Selection

We got our single home in Race 5; and he wasn't the Favorite to boot!  That's an accomplishment worth dwelling on, as it was pretty much the only thing that went our way in this sequence.  We lost photos in Race 4 and Race 7, as # 7 Tamka (0.30*) couldn't hold on in the former; while # 1 My Best Bet (1.00*) couldn't get there fast enough in the latter; and we had absolutely no part of the clear winner in the finale.  So today was our day to contribute rather than collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of  1 / 5 / 2 / 6 / 1  were non-existent, as nobody had the correct Pick Five sequence today.  There will therefore be a carryover into Saturday's Pick Five pool of $17,249.01.  Those who were able to correctly pick four of the five winners in the sequence were rewarded with a payout of $194.10 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/22/15 Turf Paradise Pick Five - Preview

I've got a bunch of free time on my hands as I sit here watching paint dry (well, actually I'm waiting for some silicone to cure; but it's the same thing) so I figure let's have a mid-week special and take a run at The Pick Five at Turf Paradise.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Cat's Reality Star (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Tamka (ML 6-5)

B's

None

Cat's Reality Star seems to settle for a lot of minor awards, a definite red flag; but she has proven to be competitive at both this class level and at today's distance.  In addition, Cat's Reality Star has a late running style that may suit her well in this field that is saturated with early speed.

Tamka should probably be a single here; but the fact that her lowest lifetime Beyer Speed Figure (excluding her debut as a two year old) was earned the only prior time that she tried two turns suggests some caution here.

RACE 5 - Clm $3k N2Y - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Truckin (ML 5-2)

B's

None

This contest is restricted to horses that have not won two races since October 22, 2014.  But races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count; that's why # 7 At Last a Wildcat (ML 8-1), with two Wins in 2015, is eligible to enter this race; as his victory on February 8 came when he was running for a tag of $1.75k.

Truckin missed by just a neck over this main track at this class level last time out.  Truckin is a lifetime four-for-fourteen at today's distance.

RACE 6 - Clm $6.25k - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Coach Royal (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 I Am Awesome (ML 2-1)
# 5 Juniper Pass (ML 4-1)

Coach Royal has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Coach Royal has finished in the money in each of his two tries at today's distance on the grass.

I Am Awesome was a clear winner on the main track last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that would probably win today if carried over to the turf.  Juniper. winner of the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano back in 2011, may still have enough gas in the tank to get the job done at this class level.

RACE 7 - Alw 3500s - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 My Best Bet (ML 2-1)
# 3 Relatively Correct (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Elusive Moment (ML 7-2)

# 4 Inclined to Win (ML 10-1) has been scratched.

My Best Bet has finished in the money against open $10k claimers each of his last two times out.  Relatively Correct was less than a length behind My Best Bet at the wire last time out.  Elusive Moment enters today's contest with a two race winning streak.

RACE 8 - Clm $3k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Macias (ML 5-2)
# 7 Lord Calezaar (ML 9-5)

B's

# 6 Warren's Jeff G. (ML 8-1)
# 8 Jims Midnight Slew (ML 12-1)
# 9 Allen's Crown (ML 4-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since December 22, 2014; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 12/22/14 in order for the horse to be entered here.

Marcias took the Place at this class level last time out.  Lord Calezaar earned the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit on the grass.  Lord Calezaar is a lifetime two-for-three on the Turf Paradise main track.

Warren's Jeff G. missed by a length of winning at this class level three starts back.  Allen's Crown took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Jims Midnight Slew is on the ticket because there's just no way that I'm losing a Pick Five in the final leg because I didn't cover a horse called Jims Midnight Slew.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 3 with 1,3 with 5,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 2,3,5 with 1,3,8 with 5,6,7,8,9 $45.00

Total: $49.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:48 EDT / 2:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, April 19, 2015

4/19/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Dr. Fager's Gal (Final Odds 4.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The San Simeon - # 1 Get Happy Mister (12.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Maria Hooch (2.20) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Desiresoftheheart (2.20*) - "B" Selection

Today's sequence is a good one to keep in mind the next time you hear an analyst say that horses with experience on the downhill turf course have an edge.  Get Happy Mister, the shipper from Arapahoe Park, was successful in his turf debut today, winning the Grade 3 San Simeon over a pair of runners (# 2 Home Run Kitten (2.20*) and # 8 Sweet Swap (3.60)) who were prior Graded Stakes winners charging down the hill; while Desiresoftheheart won the finale in her overall debut, defeating several who had prior experience navigating the downhill course.  As for our play, we had a sandwich result, with "B"read on the ends but no meat in the middle.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 1 / 7 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $1,688.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/19/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

As often happens, I really don't have anything today in the way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, and take a look at Sunday's Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Exposure (Morning Line 5-2)
# 6 This Is War (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Heavenly Candy (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sweet and Fuzzy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Conquest Curlgirl (ML 6-1)
# 9 Dr. Fager's Gal (ML 9-2)

Exposure and This is War are the only two runners in this field to have finished in the money at this class level.  Dr. Fager's Gal, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is also an experienced runner, having debuted last Summer at Del Mar.  She hasn't run since, but she did run respectably that day, and can be expected to improve off that performance.

Heavenly Candy, Sweet and Fuzzy, and Conquest Curlgirl are all first time starters. As none of the experienced runners have earned a Beyer Speed Figure in their prior outings that would approach par at this class level, it seems like a good idea to use some of the more favorable looking debut runners.

RACE 7 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Home Run Kitten (ML 5-2)

B's

None

# 3 Joes Blazing Aaron (ML 20-1) has been scratched

# 8 Sweet Swap (ML 3-1), winner of this event last year, finished behind # 6 Pure Tactics (ML 7-2) two starts back.  # 7 U S Citizen (ML 6-1), who took the Place behind Sweet Swap last time out, twice finished behind # 5 Holy Lute (ML 3-1) this past Winter; one time getting the Win by DQ.

In my opinion, Sweet Swap, Pure Tactics, U S Citizen, and Holy Lute are all pretty evenly matched.  I can't see making a reasonable case for using one of those four without using them all.  As you can tell from above, I am not using any of them on my ticket.  One reason is because it would make my ticket way over budget.  But a more important reason is because I think Home Run Kitten is better than all of them.  If I'm wrong in that opinion, then this ticket is going down in flames.

RACE 8 - (F) Hcp 12500s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Toomanytomatoes (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rosewhitenblue (ML 5-1)
# 6 French Alps (ML 8-5)

B’s

None

Note that this contest does not have any career Win restrictions in its conditions.

Toomanytomatoes missed by less than a length of defeating open $20k Claimers going around two turns over this main track two starts back.  Rosewhitenblue took the Place sprinting on this main track against open $20k Claimers last time out.

French Alps, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has been earning Beyer Speed Figures on the Golden Gate Fields synthetic surface that would probably get the job done here today.  Since she was successful in her only prior try over a fast dirt track, it's fair to expect her form to carry over to the different surface.  But this contest is a decent step up the class ladder from those that French Alps has been facing, so it seems prudent to spread a bit here.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Charming Starlet (ML 5-2)
# 8 Scuti de Patuti (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Desireoftheheart (ML 7-2)
# 6 Ms. K J (ML 20-1)
# 14 Lirica Heat (Arg) (ML 6-1)

# 3 Big Move (ML 12-1) and # 12 Just Peachy (ML 12-1) have been scratched; so bring in the two Also Eligibles, # 13 Briartic Gal (ML 12-1) and # 14 Lirica Heat (Arg) (ML 6-1).

Charming Starlet is clearly the most talented runner in this field.  Unfortunately, Charming Starlet has frequently been the most talented runner in the eleven prior fields in which she has competed in her career, on all surfaces, without winning.  There is no question that Charming Starlet can win at this class level charging down the hill today; the only question is, "Does she want to?".

Scutti de Patuti took the Show charging down the hill at this class level last time out.  Desireoftheheart is a first time starter sired by Unusual Heat, so taking to the turf should not be a problem.  Ms. K J and Lirica Heat are both getting some class relief.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2 with 1,4,6 with 1,8 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2 with 1,4,6 with 1,4,6,8,14 $45.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, April 18, 2015

4/18/15 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The Its Binn Too Long - # 8 Get the Sensation (Final Odds 1.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial - # 3 Control Stake (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sugar Maple - # 8 Taketheodds (3.80) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Charles Town Classic - # 6 Moreno (7.00) - No Selection

Congrats to Moreno and his connections, as he earned a new track record for the distance with his victory.  As I type this there's no official word yet as to why # 4 Shared Belief (0.30*) who did not break well and had to be eased approximately six furlongs into the contest, was vanned off.  Needless to say, we hope that whatever injury Shared Belief sustained today proves not to be serious, and that he is able to make a full recovery.  As to our play, there's not much to say other than:

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 3 / 8 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $343.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/18/15 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

We shift our focus today from West to East, as the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Shared Belief makes his first career start outside of California in Saturday's $1.5 Million Charles Town Classic, the anchor in a guaranteed $100k Pick Four.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) The Its Binn Too Long $50k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Country Mama (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Nay's Back (ML 9-2)
# 8 Get the Sensation (ML 5-2)

Country Mamma won her debut over this main track at today's distance, the only prior time in her career that she's competed at four and a half furlongs.  Country Mama is the only runner in this field to have beaten open (non-state restricted) company.  Nay's Back and Get the Sensation are the only other competitors in this field besides Country Mama to have defeated winners.

RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Control Stake (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Estimated Prophet (ML 8-1)
# 5 Arkaybee (ML 9-2)
# 6 To the Victor (ML 10-1)

# 7 Noteworthy Peach (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

Control Side, trained by Tom Amoss, was a clear winner in the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs last time out.  Estimated Prophet should appreciate the added distance today.

Arkaybee misses by just half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for his career, all over this main track.  To the Victor could be the one running fastest late.

RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $150k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Found (ML 12-1)
# 7 Flattering Bea (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Nesso (ML 3-1)

# 6 Frivolity (ML 5-1) will be scratched.  The fact that she wasn't scratched this morning means that she passed the veterinarian examination in West Virginia while still being stalled in New York.  Quite an accomplishment.

Found won by as many as she wanted to last time out over this main track at today's distance in a N3X Allowance.  Found is trained by Carla Morgan, who wins 20% of the time that she sends out runners seeking back-to-back victories.  Flattering Bea was the upset winner in last year's running of this event; her clear win last time out suggests that Flattering Bea is in shape and could find the Winner's Circle again today.  Nesso took the Show in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks the last time that she competed over this main track.  

RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Shared Belief (ML 2-5)

B's

None

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,7 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 2,3,5,6 with 1,2,7 with 4 $18.00

Total: $22.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:20 EDT / 1:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, April 12, 2015

4/12/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 5 Prevaricator (Final Odds 3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 2 - # 6 Beyond Lucky (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 1 Autumn Twilight (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 6 Fresh Feline (2.30) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 2 Morning Coffee (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 3 turned out to be not so chaotic after all, as odds-on Favorite Autumn Twilight handled the added distance well, winning clear over a strung out field.  But despite that error in judgement we still managed to have 'em all, making this a day for us to cash 'em instead of trash 'em.

For the record, the other runner that we had covered in the final leg, # 3 Backstreet Lisa (2.60) would have paid $126.75 had she crossed the wire first.  But that's what might have been.  The actual Pick Five sequence of  5 / 6 / 1 / 6 / 2  paid $128.30 for a fifty cent wager.  

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/12/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

For the second Sunday in a row we move our action from the latter half of the card to the early races at The Great Race Place, and take a run at today's all filly & mare Pick Five at Santa Anita.

RACE 1 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Furlong Dirt

A’s

# 1 Comin'offthebench (Morning Line 8-5)

C’s

# 5 Prevaricator (ML 3-1)

# 4 Fast Magoo (ML 9-5) has been scratched.

Comin'offthebench took the Place at this class level last time out  She also took the Show in a N2L $40000 Starter Allowance in her start prior to that; thus making Comin'offthebench the only runner in this field to have finished in the money against winners.  Prevaricator broke her maiden by over two lengths last time out.  Provaricator goes third off the layoff and retains the services of Jockey Baze, who was on her back for that last out win.

RACE 2 - (F) Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Yur Teasing Me (ML 5-1)
# 6 Beyond Lucky (ML 8-5)

C's

None

Yur Teasing Me makes her first start today on a real dirt track, as well as her first attempt at a sprint rather than a route.  Beyond Lucky took the Show at this class level last time out, and has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.

RACE 3 - [S] (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Autumn Twilight (ML 2-1)
# 5 Kiss My Face (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Three Blondes (ML 7-2)
# 3 Medicine Butte (ML 3-1)
# 4 High Intensity (ML 8-1)
# 6 Wandering Heart (ML 5-2)

Autumn Twilight  took the Place at this class level last time out, earning the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process.  But that race was around just one turn, just like all of Autumn Twilight's previous races; so it's fair to wonder how she'll handle today's distance.

Kiss My Face makes her second career start for Trainer Leonard Powell.  Kiss My Face debuted charging down the hill; a good stamina building move, but a race that doesn't tell us much as to her ability, as Kiss My Face does not appear to be bred for competing on grass.

The "C's" are everyone else.  This contest looks to have a high probability of developing into a choas race, as those in this field that have shown the ability to approach Beyer par for this class level have done so either while sprinting or while competing on a surface other than a fast dirt track.

RACE 4 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Hug and a Kiss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Bert's Melody (ML 5-2)
# 6 Fresh Feline (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Hug and a Kiss was an Allowance winner in France, as well as hitting the board in a couple of Group 3 Stakes in that country.  Bert's Melody appears to be the lone speed in this contest, and could steal it on the front end.  Fresh Feline missed winning at this class level by less than a length last time out.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Morning Coffee (ML 5-2)
# 3 Backstreet Lisa (ML 9-5)

C’s

None

Morning Coffee, who has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last two races that are better than the career best efforts of any other runner in this field, competes for the first time with a price tag on her head.  Backstreet Lisa cuts back a furlong from her last effort, where she led most of the way at this class level only to lose by a head.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a traditional Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P5:  1 with 5,6 with 1,5 with 3,5,6 with 2,3 $12.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,6 with 1,5 with 3,5,6 with 2,3 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 5,6 with 2,3,4,6 with 3,5,6 with 2,3 $24.00

Total: $48.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, April 11, 2015

4/11/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Rule He Will (Final Odds 6.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Yes Yes Baroness (17.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Las Cienegas - # 2 Home Journey (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Pax Tecum (31.00) - No Selection

We were right to make Rule He Will our "A" Selection in Race 6 over the favored # 6 Oil (1.90*) in the opening leg of the sequence.  We were also right to respect Home Journey's chances to turn the tables on the favored # 6 Go West Marie (1.50*) in the featured 8th Race.  But while we might have found either of Yes Yes Baroness or Pax Tecum on one of our better days, it would have to have been one our best days ever to find them both in the same sequence.  And today certainly was not that day.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 7 / 2 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $12,635.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/11/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Saturday is the final day for prep races on The Road to the Kentucky Derby with today's running of The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.  Meanwhile, we'll be turning our attention to Santa Anita, where the Grade 3 Las Cienegas is today's featured race, as well as being the third leg in the Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Rule He Will (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 6 Oil (ML 7-2)

Rule He Will took the Place against open non-claiming maidens in his last start upstate.  Had that race been on real dirt, Rule He Will would have probably been a single on this ticket, as the drop from open MSW into state restricted MSW is huge.  However, how Rule He Will will handle the surface switch from synthetic to dirt is enough of an unknown that it seemed prudent to spread a bit here.

Oil goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with approximately 22% of such.  I believe it's a pretty strong positive that Miller isn't offering Oil up for sale in his very first start for the barn, and the rise in class from open $20k Maiden Claimers to the state bred non-claiming maiden ranks isn't all that steep.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Natalie's Wonder (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Ritzy Tags (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kiss At Midnight (ML 5-2)

# 4 Forty Straight (NL) is a program scratch.

Natalie's Wonder, who won at this class level over this main track two starts back, is the only runner in this field to have defeated winners.  Ritzy Tags took the Place at this class level last time out.  

Kiss At Midnight took the Show in a $40000 N2L Starter Allowance last time out.  Normally the jump in class from a non-Winners of Two Lifetime contest into a battle with open claimers would be huge; however, as mentioned above, this field contains only one horse with multiple lifetime victories; so Kiss At Midnight shouldn't be over-matched.

RACE 8 - (F) The Las Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Blingismything (ML 4-1)
# 6 Go West Marie (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Home Journey (ML 4-1)
# 3 Living The Life (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Heavens Stairway (ML 5-2)

Blingismything, a winner in her only prior try charging down the hill, took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Buena Vista.  Go West Marie comes into this contest with a three race winning streak, the last two charging down the hill in state bred stakes.

Home Journey and Heavens Stairway have proven themselves to be competitive against Go West Marie and either could turn the tables on her today.  Living The Life (Ire) certainly fits this race on class, and she does show a grass victory in her lifetime record.  If Living The Life can carry her form from the synthetics over to the turf she could be the one getting her picture taken today.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Sharprado C S (ML 4-1)
# 11 Upbeat Tempo (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Stepsun (ML 8-1)
# 2 Flexible (ML 4-1)

# 8 Hit a Homerun (ML 7-2) is a Vet scratch.

Sharprado C S took the Place in his debut last time out at Sam Houston Race Park in Texas, and now ships west in order to compete at the same approximate class level as in his debut.  That's a rather interesting move.  Anyway, the Beyer Speed Figure that Sharprado C S earned is his debut is the best career Beyer in this field.  But keep in mind that figure was earned over a muddy track, the type of surface that Sharprado C S's Wet Tomlinson Rating suggests that he should relish (and also making it even more interesting that a horse that relishes off tracks would be shipped to Southern California).  Anyway, a repeat of his debut performance could be enough to give Sharprado C S the Win today.

Upbeat Tempo has the best career Beyer Speed Figure earned over a fast dirt track in this field.  Stepsun drops in class while competing for the first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato.  Flexible, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, runs for the first time with a price tag on his head.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 4 with 1 with 5,6 with 10,11 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,3,8 with 2,3,5,6,8 with 1,2,10,11 $60.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, April 5, 2015

4/5/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 3 Skip Tony (Final Odds 1.90*) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 7 Desert Dynamo (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Kenjisstorm (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 10 Revenue Virginius (3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - The Santa Paula = # 6 Enchanting Lady (3.30) - "A" Selection

Our single in the opening leg, # 4 My Jealous (2.40) was certainly game, leading the field most of the way from out of the gate and into the stretch; but he couldn't last until the wire and had to settle for the Place, two and a quarter lengths behind the winner, Skip Tony.  And that two and a quarter lengths was the difference today between us cashing or trashing our tickets, as we had all the other winners the rest of the way.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of  3 / 7 / 4 / 10 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $410.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/5/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

Happy Easter everyone!  Here's hoping that each and every one of you are enjoying yourselves this Sunday.  We're going to change things up a bit today, and move our action from late to early, and take a run at today's Pick Five at The Great Race Place.

RACE 1 - Hcp 16000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 My Jealous (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

None

Note that this contest does not have any career Win restrictions in its conditions.

My Jealous enters this contest with a two race winning streak as well as a string of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures, the most recent of which is the best last out Beyer in this field.

Persuasive Paul, a stakes winner on the turf two starts back, has shown the ability to win at this class level on the dirt in the past.  The reason Persuasive Paul is not on this ticket is because his career record on the Santa Anita main track is oh-for-three, compared to his lifetime three-for-three on all other dirt surfaces.  Perhaps that's just a coincidence, rather than a dislike for the Santa Anita surface; but I'm willing to bet that it's not.  So if Persuasive Paul wins today, this ticket loses.

RACE 2 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Desert Dynamo (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Jimbo Fallon (ML 3-1)

If Desert Dynamo, the only experienced runner in this field, has matured at a normal level since his debut back in October, then he should be well qualified to win here; and the bullet work that Desert Dynamo posted from the gate 3/22 strongly suggests that he's ready to roll.

Jimbo Fallon, one of two first time starters trained by Bob Baffert, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  But seriously, if I have to tell you why Jimbo Fallon is on this ticket, then you're just not paying attention.

RACE 3 - Md $30k - Six  and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Kenjisstorm (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Cal McLish (ML 3-1)
# 9 Bandido Too (ML 9-2)

# 1 Love On the Road (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

Kenjisstorm has earned Beyer Speed Figures on the dirt against non-claiming maidens that would certainly get the job done today.  Kenjisstorm also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  The concern is that Kenjisstorm is now trained by Michael Pender, who is oh-for-his last twenty three when sending out a new barn acquisition for the first time; for that reason, it seems prudent to spread a bit here.

Cal McLish, owned and trained by Steve Miyadi, goes third off the layoff after taking the Show at this class level last time out.  Bandido Too also took the Show at this class level last time out.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Socialized (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Katy Drama (ML 3-1)
# 10 Revenue Virginius (ML 4-1)

# 6 Delaney's Joy (ML 30-1) and # 8 Autumn Flower (ML 4-1) have been scratched.

Socialized took the Place on this turf course at today's distance against non-claiming maidens last time out.  Katy Drama, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level charging down the hill last time out.  Revenue Virginius took the Show against non-claiming maidens charging down the hill two starts back.

RACE 5 - (F) The Santa Paula $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Sensitively (ML 9-5)
# 6 Enchanting Lady (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Rattataptap (ML 5-1)
# 2 Ben's Duchess (ML 9-2)
# 4 Tara's Tango (ML 8-5)
# 5 Miss Mandate (ML 12-1)

Sensitively enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, which also happens to be the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  That number was earned by Sensitively in her debut, which she won by over nine lengths.  Note that Trainer Phil D'Amato gets over 30% winners when sending out a runner who had won last time out.

Enchanting Lady is the only stakes winner in this field, having won the Landaluce last year over this main track.  Rattataptap is the only runner here with multiple career victories.  Ben's Duchess, trained by John Sadler, could be the one running best late.  Tara's Tango, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, was impressive winning her debut on the Del Mar synthetic last Summer.  Miss Mandate is on the ticket because I don't have the courage to go "ALL Minus One" in the last leg of a Pick Five.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5:  4 with 7 with 4 with 3 with 3,6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 4 with 6,7 with 2,4,9 with 3,4,10 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 $54.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, April 4, 2015

4/4/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Santa Anita Derby - # 1 Dortmund (Final Odds 0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Providencia - # 10 Spirit of Xian (Ire) (16.80) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Evening Jewel - # 9 Sheer Pleasure (8.10) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Thunder Road - # 6 Talco (Fr) (5.30) - No Selection

We were right about Dortmund; but, then, so was everyone else.  We were really wrong about # 1 Lutine Belle (15.90) and # 2 Ol' Fashion Gal (32.30) in The Providencia, as they finished 8th and 9th, respectively.  So much for class on the grass!  But at least we still manged to have the winner in that one; not so for the final half of the sequence, as we managed to miss them both, thus turning our tickets into trash.

Oh well. onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  1 / 10 / 9 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $416.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/4/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Super Saturday on The Road to the Kentucky Derby with major prep races coast-to-coast and also in the middle.  Saturday's features are The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; The Blue Grass at Keeneland; and The Santa Anita Derby at The Great Race Place.  The latter is where we'll be focusing our attention, as we take a run at The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Dortmund (Morning Line 3-5)

B’s

None

Dortmund is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, and he's done it twice, visiting the Winner's Circle after both The San Felipe and The Los Alamitos Futurity.  It's hard to make a legitimate case that Dortmund is not the best horse in this race.  That being said, there's no guarantee that Dortmund will win; but I don't see any gain in playing this ticket any way other than with him as a single.

RACE 9 - (F) The Providencia (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Lutine Belle (ML 12-1)
# 2 Ol' Fashion Gal (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 4 Entrechat (ML 4-1)
# 6 Spanish Queen (ML 6-1)
# 7 Frosty Friday (ML 6-1)
# 8 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Spirit of Xian (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 13 Show Stealer (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Lutine Belle and Ol' Fashion Gal are the only two runners in this field with stakes wins; indeed, Ol' Fashion Gal is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, and she is the career leader in lifetime turf earnings in this group.  I can't possibly see either of these two horses, let alone both of them, leaving the gate at double-digit odds.  But, of course, all this is being written prior to the race being run. Once the contest is over, many may be wondering how anyone could have possibly liked either of these two fillies.

Entrechat, Spanish Queen, and Frosty Friday were all big winners of their respective maiden races last time out, each crossing the wire a minimum of three lengths in front of their nearest rivals.  Prize Exhibit (GB), who closed well to win last time out, just missed by a neck of winning the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes in her final start overseas.  Prize Exhibit should appreciate today's added distance.

Spirit of Xian (GB) took the Show charging down the hill in her North American debut last time out despite being steadied as she crossed over the dirt.  Overseas imports often regress in their second North American starts; but I think Spirit of Xian is worth including due to her fine performance with a troubled trip, plus the fact that this will be her first career route race, and there isn't a great deal of early speed in this field.

RACE 10 - [S] (F) The Evening Jewel $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Bad Ju Ju (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Long Hot Summer (ML 7-2)
# 2 Nissa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Ashley's Sassy (ML 8-1)
# 6 Can Can Babe (ML 20-1)
# 10 Jenna's Faith (ML 8-1)
# 12 Princess Bertrando (ML 12-1)
# 13 Easter Fever (ML 8-1)

Bad Ju Ju has the best last out Fast Dirt Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Bad Ju Ju also has the best career Fast Dirt Beyer of any runner in this contest.  Long Hot Summer has the best last out overall Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned while charging down the hill.  This will be Long Hot Summer's first career start on a fast dirt track; if she can handle the surface switch, she should be right there at the wire.

Nissa appears to be rounding into form, and should appreciate the turn back in distance.  Ashley's Sassy may be the best closer in this field filled with a ton of early speed.  Can Can Babe earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure in her last dirt race, which was against open stakes competition.

Jenna's Faith tries winners for the first time, after earning a Beyer Speed Figure in her debut that would put her right in the mix against today's contenders.  Princess Bertrando ran the best race of her career the last time that she competed on the Santa Anita main track.  Easter Fever settles for too many minor awards for my taste; but how do you leave a horse named Easter Fever off your ticket on Holy Saturday?

RACE 11 - The Thunder Road $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Enterprising (ML 8-1)

# 3 Baccelo (Brz) (ML 30-1) and # 11 Mr. Commons (ML 20-1) have been scratched.  Bring in # 13 Cummings Road (ML 15-1) from the Also Eligible list; but # 14 Gabriel Charles (ML 4-1) gets to stay in the barn and watch the Final Four on TV.

Winning Prize (Arg) wasn't able to earn a repeat victory in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile last time out; but his performance in that contest, if repeated today, should get him into the Winner's Circle.  Enterprising, making his 2015 debut, is a career four-for-four when competing at today's distance on the grass.

OK, that's the analysis.  As you can see, it's pretty much a Hopscotch Double, with Dortmund on one end and Winning Prize and Enterprising on the other.  Anyway, playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 5 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,10 with 1,2,4,5,6,10,12,13 with 2,4 $56.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo