Sunday, April 26, 2015

4/26/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana." - Groucho Marx

Hard as it may seem to believe, today marks the end of the final weekend in April.  So let's turn our attention to The Great Race Place, and see if we can pad our bankrolls for the Kentucky Derby by taking a shot at Santa Anita's Late Pick Four.

RACE 5 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Downhill Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Divina Comedia (Fr) (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 5 Chati's On Top (ML 9-2)
# 12 Provaenance (ML 5-1)

# 7 Thewandaofu (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Divina Comedia (Fr), stakes placed in France, makes her North American debut for Trainer Julio Canani.  Divina Comedia has a closing style that tends to do well in contests down the hill, and the bullet work she posted over the main track on the 19th suggests that she's ready to roll.

Chati's On Top missed winning by just a neck the last time that she competed at this class level, though that was on the flats at Del Mar.  Provence missed winning by a nose at this class level the last time she charged down the hill.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Missing Groom (ML 4-1)
# 4 Old Man Lake (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Brave Act (ML 3-1)

Old Man Lake enters this contest with back-to-back Wins against open, non-restricted claimers.  Old Man Lake also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Normally such qualities on the resume would make Old Man Lake a single on our tickets; however, Old Man Lake was claimed last time out, and the switch to a trainer (Rafael Beccera) with a lower Winning Percentage than his predecessor (Steve Miyadi) is a concern.

Missing Groom took the Place last time out against state bred Allowance company over this main track.  Brave Act drops in after beating non-state restricted company, albeit the N2L kind.

RACE 7 - (F) The Wilshire (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Birdlover (GB) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Blingismything (ML 9-2)
# 7 Indecise (ML 9-2)

# 1 Moulin de Mougin (ML 4-1) and # 2 Thegirlinthatsong (ML 8-1) have been scratched.

Birdlover (GB) misses by just a head of entering this event with a four race winning streak.  Birdlover has finished in the Exacta each of the eight times that she has competed on the Santa Anita grass.

Blingismything has taken the Show in each of her last two contests, both in Graded Stakes.  Indecise was getting to Birdlover last time out charging down the hill; perhaps she can turn the tables today on the flats.

RACE 8 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Fancy Shoes (ML 7-2)
# 9 Dually Affirmed (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Blame It On Tekela (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 4-1)

Fancy Shoes took the Show at this class level last time out, after taking the Show against more expensive prior to that.  Fancy Shoes should improve in his first try around two turns.

Dually Affirmed has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit earned on the grass.  Dually Affirmed seems to have made a habit of getting bumped at the break; hopefully the drop in class will allow him to break quick enough to avoid being pinballed.

Blame It On Tekela took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  Lucky Shoes to Win took the Place against move expensive the only prior time that he competed around two turns.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,4 with 8 with 5,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,8,12 with 1,2,4 with 4,7,8 with 1,4,5,9 $54.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:34 EDT / 2:34 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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