7/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 3 Land Over Sea (Final Odds 0.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 9 Tatum's Gold (5.80) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Lookin for Money (4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Saint Adalbert (11.70) - No Selection

Race 5 turned out to be not so confusing after all, at least not for the public at large, as odds-on Favorite Land Over Sea won by almost four lengths in her first try on the turf.  Lookin for Money was Trainer Doug O'Neill's fifth winner on the card; this is certainly a day that he'll long remember.  As for us, this will be a good one to soon forget.  While we had the two grass winners, we totally whiffed on the two dirt races, including the finale where we used six runners; and none of our "A" Selections finished in the money today, let alone won. 

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  3 / 9 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $767.40  for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Remember that sizable Pick Six carryover going into Sunday's card at Del Mar?  Well, no one hit it; so now it's even more sizable, currently topping the half-million mark.  And while we don't swim in that pool, heavy interest in the Pick Six often spills over into the Pick Four pool, as bettors knocked out early in the Pick Six try to get even, while those still alive often use the Pick Four to hedge.  So considering all that, let's have ourselves a little mid-week fun and take a shot at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Feelin Lucky (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 3 Land Over Sea (ML 2-1)
# 8 Red Stitch (ML 10-1)

C's

# 4 Asian Moonlady (ML 10-1)

# 7 Warm Endowment (ML 5-2) has been scratched.

This one's for two year old fillies where half the field is making their career debuts, while the experienced runners have all competed on the main track only.  It's the type of race where you can almost hear the "ALL" button calling your name.  But we may need to go deep elsewhere, so let's try to survive the initial contest without resorting to panic.

Feelin Lucky is by Lookin At Lucky, whose offspring win about 12% of their turf debuts.  I'm also intrigued by the workout pattern Feelin Lucky went through during the Spring: April 28 / May 2 / May 5 / May 9.  You rarely see workouts placed that close together anymore.  So maybe the old school training regimen will have Feelin Lucky ready to fire at first asking.

Land Over Sea was quick out the gate in her debut; if she can do that on the grass, maybe she runs these off their feet before they have a chance to get started.  Red Stitch is by Decarchy, whose offspring tend to do well the first time that they try the grass.  Asian Moonlady is out of Silver Moonshine, who had two career turf wins.

RACE 6 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Awesome Luck (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Bonus Spin (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Tough Annie (ML 20-1)

# 8 Anita Marie (ML 5-1)

# 1 Lucky Student (ML 3-1) has been scratched.

Bonus Spin and Awesome Luck have the co-best Beyer Speed Figures in this field; preference given to Awesome Luck due to this being Bonus Spin's first start of 2015.  Tough Annie could be speed on the rail; and while speed on the rail ran into a dry spell during this meet, it did win it's fair share of contests on Sunday.  Anita Marie, like Bonus Spin, is making her first start of 2015.  If Anita Marie brings her form from early 2014 with her, then she could be the one getting her picture taken today.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Sound City (ML 5-1)

# 9 Showcase Winner (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 3 Kyankes (ML 5-1)

# 5 Lookin for Money (ML 9-2)

# 7 Housemaker (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 8 Belle Et Bete (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 10 Backstreet Lisa (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 11 Take Back Spring (No Line), # 12 Summer Veil (NL), and # 14 Pray Anyway (NL) are all program scratches.  # 1 Yes Yes Baroness (ML 8-1) and # 13 Won't Be Shaken (ML 10-1) have also been scratched.

Sound City missed by a head against more expensive at today's distance on the grass last time out.  Showcase Winner seems to be much improved since adding the blinkers.

Lookin for Money drops in for the lowest tag of her career.  Housemaker (GB), coming back on less than two weeks rest, closed well while breaking her maiden two starts back.  Belle Et Bete (Ire) took the Place while charging down the Santa Anita hill against more expensive two starts back.

Backstreet Lisa battled Sound City on the front end last time out; perhaps Backstreet Lisa will be able to turn the tables today.  Kyankes tries the grass for the first time; Kyankes' trainer, Richard Baltas, wins with over twenty percent of such.

RACE 8 - Clm $16k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Shakahari (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 9 No Ez Money (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 George's Main Man (ML 6-1)

# 3 Destino (ML 20-1)

# 8 Mighty Brown (ML 6-1)

# 10 Jimmy's Date (ML 3-1)

Shakahari enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and should be speed on the what we hope won't be dead rail.  No Ez Money earned a Beyer the last time he competed on a fast dirt track that would be a career best for all but one other runners in this contest.

George's Main Man should have a good stalking position on Shakahari.  Destino is the one to look for late if it all falls apart up front.  Mighty Brown ships in to run for the lowest price tag of his career.  Jimmy Date's goes back to the barn of Trainer Peter Miller, for whom Jimmy's Date has enjoyed past success.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,9 with 1 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 3,5 with 2,3,5,7,8,9,10 with 1,9 $42.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 2,9 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,8 with 2,9 with 1 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,9 with 2,3,8,10 $4.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/26/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 1 Songbird (Final Odds 2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The California Dreamin' - # 5 Weewinnin (9.80) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 1 J Serino (10.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Spirit of Ten (4.40*) - "B" Selection

Big mistake on our part not having Weewinnin on our tickets, as he was clearly (with the scratch of # 11 Surfcup) the lone speed in The California Dreamin'; and, yes, that's a factor to reckon with, even on the turf.  We failed to get any of our "A" Selections home; indeed, in half the races our "A" Selections didn't even finish in the money.  So overall not one of our better Pick Four plays.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  1 / 5 / 1 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $1,776.70 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/26/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

There's a sizable Pick Six carryover going into today's card at Del Mar.  That's good news, because heavy interest in the Pick Six often spills over into the Pick Four pool, which is what we'll be chasing today at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Tiz a Tommy Town (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Songbird (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lady Cloud (ML 6-1)
# 8 Treasuring (ML 6-1)
# 11 Sutton's Smile (ML 4-1)

# 9 Jade Princess (No Line) is a program scratch.  

Tiz a Tommy Town missed graduating by less than a length in her debut last time out, taking the Place almost seven lengths clear of her nearest rival.  If Tiz a Tommy Town shows any improvement at all off that effort today, then she might win by the length of the grandstand.  However, improvement is not guaranteed, so some caution is advised.

Lady Cloud is the only other experienced runner in this field, having taken the Show behind Tiz a Tommy Town in their mutual debut.  Songbird, like Tiz a Tommy Town, is trained by Jerrry Hollendorfer, who does quite well with debuting maidens.  Trainers Bob Baffert and Phil D'Amato also win more than their fair share with first out runners; Baffert and D'Amato being the conditioners for Treasuring and Sutton's Smile, respectively.

RACE 8 - [S] The California Dreamin' $150k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Rock Me Baby (ML 7-2)
# 9 G. G. Ryder (ML 6-1)

B's

# 7 Patriots Rule (ML 6-1)
# 8 Awesome Return (ML 9-2)

C's

None

# 11 Surfcup (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Rock Me Baby, winner of the Albany Stakes upstate last time out, won this contest last year when it was taken off the turf.  G. G. Ryder won the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile the last time that he ran on the grass.

Patriots Rule closed well while winning the Crystal Waters two starts back.  Awesome Return, who crossed the wire a little over a length behind Patriots Rule in the Crystal Waters, hit the board in both of his two prior tries on the Del Mar turf.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Alamo (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 J Serino (ML 12-1)
# 7 Colonial Power (ML 8-1)
# 9 Clickjab (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 Sleepwalker (ML 8-1)

# 5 Waymond Boyd (ML 12-1)

# 8 Power of Hope (ML 7-2)

# 6 Rosicky (NL) is a program scratch.

Alamo has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.  J Serino, making his fifteen career start, has shown the ability to win at this level; now it's just a question of desire.

Colonial Power makes his second career start after closing well in his debut.  Clickjab took the Place at this class level two starts back over this main track when it was filled with the fake stuff.  Today will be Clickjab's first start on real dirt.

Sleepwalker cuts back in distance after fading late in his last start.  Waymond Boyd and Power of Hope are a pair of first time starters whose respective sire does rather well with debuting progeny.

RACE 10 - [S] (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Diamond Cut (ML 5-1)

# 10 Charming Starlet (ML 12-1)

B's

# 6 Q' Viva (ML 5-1)

# 9 Spirit of Ten (ML 9-2)

# 12 Wonderful Lie (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Thermodynamics (ML 8-1)

# 4 Majestic Heat (ML 8-1)

# 8 Temeeku (ML 8-1)

# 3 Autumn (NL) and # 13 Flat Footed Mama (NL) are program scratches.

Diamond Cut was in the Exacta in each of her last three races against non-state restricted N2L Starter Allowance company.  Charming Starlet, trying winners for the first time today, may have finally figured out what this is all about.

Q' Viva has shown good closing ability in her races charging down the hill at Santa Anita.  Spirit of Ten is a last out winner for Trainer Phil D'Amato, who takes such back to the Winner's Circle over 30% of the time.  Wonderful Lie took the Show in her only prior try on the grass.

Thermodynamics took the Show the last time that she competed at this class level on the grass.  Majestic Heat, who competed on this turf course less than ten days ago, has closed well in each of her two prior career starts.  Temeeku was a winner over this turf course her last time out, albeit over eight months ago.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 3,9 with 2 with 2,10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,7,8,9 with 1,2,7,9 with 2,6,9,10,12 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,11 with 3,9 with 2 with 2,10 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,9 with 4,5,8 with 2,10 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,9 with 2 with 1,4,8 $3.00

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/25/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 3 Chaulk O Lattey (Final Odds 2.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The San Diego - # 6 Catch a Flight (Arg) (3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Micks Miracle (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 2 Foolish Ways (Ire) (11.30) - "A" Selection

Our play got off to an ominous beginning when our single "A" Selection in the Opening Leg, # 9 Sweet as a Rose (3.70), dumped Jockey Drayden Van Dyke off her back as soon as she left the gate.  And sure enough, we wound up having one of those days, a day where we had all the winners, but not all on any one ticket.  It's the type of day that can lead you into an awful lot of second guessing: What if Sweet as a Rose hadn't dumped her rider?  Why didn't we use Favorite Chaulk O Lattey as an "A"?  Why didn't we have more faith in Micks Miracle, who won by the length of the stretch, and drop a lot of our backups in Race 9?  But, as always, the best thing to do after such a day is just turn the page and say:

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  3 / 6 / 2 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $402.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/25/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

It's Saturday Number 2 of the Del Mar meet.  The Grade 2 San Diego is the featured event, highlighted by the return of Bayern.  The San Diego is Race 8 on the card, which makes it part of the Pick Four that we'll be chasing today at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Sweet as a Rose (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 3 Chaulk O Lattey (ML 3-1)
# 6 Warren's Jen Fizz (ML 8-1)
# 11 Zanbo (ML 6-1)

C's

# 8 Hiking (ML 6-1)

# 10 Show Stealer (ML 12-1)

# 2 Best Efforts (ML 20-1) has been scratched; but don't bring # 13 Miss Boom Boom in off the Also Eligible List to replace her; rather, bring in # 14 Josephine's Moment (ML 10-1).

Sweet as a Rose closed well last time out at Santa Anita while crossing the wire in front of Chaulk O Lattey.  Sweet as a Rose has finished in the Exacta in each of her two career tries on the Del Mar grass.

Chaulk O Lattey has two careers wins, which also just happened to be the two previous times that today's rider Rafael Bejarano was on her back.  Warren's Jen Fizz showed some nice late foot two starts back; likewise for Zanbo in a separate contest.

Hiking showed good versatility in her running style in her races across the pond.  Show Stealer could be the one swooping in late if things get crazy on the front end.

RACE 8 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Bayern (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Hoppertunity (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Appealing Tale (ML 8-1)

# 6 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 3-1)

# 1 Nowalking (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

If Bayern does not make the early lead, or at least get within a head of the early leader, then Bayern can't be bothered with running the rest of the race.  That was the case in his last two races, the Grade 1 Met Mile and the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  It was also the case in last year's Preakness.  So if you don't think Bayern can be either leading the pack or right up on the pace early, then don't bet Bayern, and don't put him on your tickets.

I think Bayern makes the early lead today.  The only entrant here that I can see competing with Bayern in the early going is Appealing Tale; and, quite frankly, as good as Appealing Tale is, I don't think that he's anywhere near as quick out of the gate as Bayern is.  So I think Bayern, who is a lifetime three-for-three in the state of California, makes the early lead.  Then it's just a matter as to whether or not he can hold off Hoppertunity late.

Appealing Tale and Catch a Flight (Arg) back up Bayern and Hoppertunity, respectively.  If Bayern fails to fire, if Bayern should stumble out of the gate, then Appealing Tale should have things all to himself, at least in the early going.  If Hoppertunity doesn't have his A-Game today, then Catch a Flight could be the one getting first run on the leader in the stretch.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Unblunted (ML 5-1)

# 2 Micks Miracle (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 K Thirty Eight (ML 6-1)

C's

# 7 Papa Turf (ML 12-1)

# 8 Big Tire (ML 6-1)

# 9 Airfoil (ML 8-1)

# 11 Syndicated (ML 20-1)

# 12 Biltmore Boogie (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Unblunted and Micks Miracle exit the same last out contest, where they took the Place and Show, respectively, at today's class level.  K Thirty Eight ran a monster race two starts back; perhaps it was a fluke, but if he can repeat that effort then he'll win by daylight today.  Also note that K Thirty Eight's two career wins came in the only two prior contests in which he had today's rider, Alex Solis, on his back.

Papa Turf moves up in class today, but the Beyer Speed Figures that Papa Turf has been earning of late fit well with the contenders in this field.  Big Tire cuts back in distance today; the last time Big Tire went around only one turn he grabbed the Place at this class level.  

Airfoil was a winner the last time that he competed at today's class level.  Syndicated may improve with the change in barn.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 9 Artisticdifference (ML 6-1)

B's

# 10 Scandal (ML 5-2)

# 11 Place des Vosges (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Yaffe (ML 20-1)

# 12 Margaret Reay (ML 6-1)

Let the Also Eligibles, # 13 Girl Downstairs (ML 6-1) and # 14 Entebbe (ML 10-1) stay in the barn this afternoon.

Foolish Ways (Ire) closed well in taking the Show at this class level last time out.  Artisticdifference also closed well in that same contest, which was Artisticdifference's debut.

Scandal and Place des Vosges each took the Place in separate contests at this class level last time out; though the outside draw in today's race is a concern for each.  Yaffe showed a nice closing kick charging down the hill in her debut last time out.  Margaret Reay is Graded Stakes placed; though she too may be disadvantaged by the outside draw, especially since Margaret Reay seems to prefer being forwardly placed.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,9,11 with 3,4 with 1,2,5 with 2,9,10,11 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 8.10 with 4 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 7,8,9,11 with 2,9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,2 with 4,12 $2.00

Total: $66.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 7 Over Par (Final Odds 3.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 5 Savings Account (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Wickerr - # 6 Pure Tactics (3.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Luvuryan (2.70*) - "A" Selection

Nothing like a fast track and a firm turf to make us look a like a genius again.  Of course, had we been smart enough to use Over Par as an "A" Selection instead of a "B" Selection; or had # 4 What a View (26.60) won Race 5 instead of Dead Heating with # 2 Unusually (28.30) for the Place in Race 5; or had # 10 Wilkerson (21.60) won the photo in the Wickerr; or (as you'll see below) had Luvuryan won without being the Post Time Favorite; then we would have looked even more geniusy.  Mind you, I'm not complaining; rather just reminding myself that there's always room for improvement.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Dixie Tweet  - LATE SCRATCH
# 5 Katsfasion (4.70) - $507.90 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Luvuryan (2.70*) - $309.65 Finish: 1st

Obviously those numbers require some explanation, as the Will Pay that you see for Luvuryan is much higher than what we collected.  Dixie Tweet, the horse that had been scratched, was the Morning Line Favorite, and no doubt was carrying a huge share of the Pick Four pool.  That money went with whichever horse was the Post Time Favorite; that is, in place of having Dixie Tweet, we (and everyone else) had whichever runner left the starting gate as the Favorite.  Since the Dixie Tweet money wasn't calculated into the Will Pays (because there was no way to know for sure which runner would be the Post Time Favorite) whichever horse left the gate as the Post Time Favorite would then be carrying all the Pick Four pool money wagered on Dixie Tweet, thus making for a much lower payout.  As it turned out, Luvuryan was the Post Time Favorite; thus making for an actual payout much lower than the Will Pay listed.  But as compensation, because we fortunately had Dixie Tweet on the same ticket as Luvuryan, we collected twice, once for each runner.

So with all that, the actual winning Pick Four sequence of  7 / 5 / 6 / 8  paid $119.90 for a fifty cent wager.  Since we had it twice we pocketed $239.80, making for approximate odds of 3-1 on our $58.50 outlay.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Unlike the meets at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos, Del Mar only features one Pick Four on their cards; so there's no need to differentiate between early and late.  Another difference in the Del Mar meet is that there's racing on Wednesday, which today just happens to be.  So since I've got myself some free time, let's have a mid-week special and take a run at the Pick Four where the Turf meets the Surf.

Race 5 - [S] MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Heat (Morning Line 7-2)

# 11 Diablo Caballero (ML 9-2)

B's

# 7 Over Par (ML 9-2)

C's

# 4 What a View (ML 20-1)

Diablo Caballero and Heat took the Place and Show (respectively) charging down the hill at Santa Anita in the same contest at today's class level, missing the winner by less than a length.  Over Par disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, but he didn't embarrass, taking the Place with an effort that could win today if repeated.  What a View is a son of Vronsky trying grass for the first time.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Savings Account (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Roksana (ML 10-1)

# 6 Divina Comedia (Fr) (ML 3-1)

Last time out, Savings Account earned a Beyer Speed Figure that towers over anything that anyone else in this field has done in their career.  So the question is: do you believe that figure?  Personally, I do.  I think Savings Account ran to her true ability in what was her dirt debut last time out, and that she is very much capable of repeating that effort again today.  The bullet work that Savings Account turned in over this main track last Wednesday is just one more point in her favor.

Roksana was victimized by a loose saddle last time out; since she was showing a steadily improving form prior to that contest, I think that she's entitled to another chance today.  Divina Comedia (Fr), like Savings Account only somewhat less so, turned in a career best effort in her first try ever on a fast dirt track; perhaps Divina Comedia can move forward off that effort.

RACE 7 - [R] The Wickerr $80k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Kulik Lodge (ML 7-2)

# 6 Pure Tactics (ML 12-1)

# 8 Global View (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 County Lineman (ML 12-1)

# 2 Footstepsinbronze (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Zuri Chop (Fr) (ML 5-1)

# 10 Wilkinson (ML 15-1)

# 11 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)

C's

None

# 7 Play Hard to Get (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

This is a restricted stakes, open only to those that have not won a stakes of $50k or higher since March 1 EXCLUDING stakes limited to state bred competition AND ALSO EXCLUDING stakes run at a distance of less than eight furlongs.

Kulik Lodge won an N3X on the grass last time out with Global View less than a length behind that looks to be stronger than the Beyers that they each earned might lead you to believe.  Pure Tactics has won the last two restricted stakes in which he's competed.

County Lineman was right behind Pure Tactics last time out in the Siren Lure.  Footstepsinbronze (Ire) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in six turf tries.  Zuri Chop (Fr) is making his North American debut after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in his last two tries in Europe.

Wilkinson returns to competition for the first time in almost two years.  If Wilkerson can pick up where he last left off, he just might get his picture taken today.  Winning Prize (Arg) is getting some significant class relief here; but the far outside draw for a horse that likes to be upfront early is a concern.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Luvuryan (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Dixie Tweet (ML 5-2)

# 5 Katsfashion (ML 6-1)

C's

# 6 Gentle Caroline (ML 8-1)

# 7 Chicago Angel (ML 5-1)

# 10 Katy's Plum (ML 12-1)

# 4 Honky Tonk Diva (ML 30-1) is a program scratch, so bring in # 11 Crystal Harbor (ML 10-1) off the Also Eligible List; however, the other Also Elibigles, # 12 Union Blaze (ML 15-1), # 13 Rodeo Drive Diva (ML 30-1), and # 14 Queen Khaleesi (ML 20-1) do not draw in, and get to spend the afternoon hanging out in the barn.

Luvuryan, trying to prove that the twelfth time's the charm, gets her first career try on a fast dirt track.  Dixie Tweet drops in class and could be early speed on the rail.  Katsfashion is another that has shown good early speed against more expensive stock.  

Gentle Caroline drops in from non-claiming maidens in her second career try.  Chicago Angel has finished in the Trifecta all four times that she's competed at today's distance.  Katy's Plum could be running best late if it all falls apart up front.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9,11 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 8 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,9,11 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,10,11 with 1,5,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 4,6 with 4,6,8 with 8 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 6,7,10 $9.00

Total: $58.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/18/15 Del Mar Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 1 Mr. Cartagena (Final Odds 2.20) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 6 Knock Em Flat (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 7 Rockin Bayou (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 4 - The Eddie Read - # 2 Gabriel Charles (4.70) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Sweet Mz. Poppet (2.90) - No Selection

Needless to say, when you totally whiff on three out of five races, it was not a good day.  There was very little suspense either, as we were knocked out in the opening leg when our "A" Selection in Race 1, # 2 Dynamite Ride (2.10*), could only make up seven of the eight lengths that he spotted the winner after the first quarter.  At least we can console ourselves with the fact that we pocketed the exact same amount of money that we would have had we just put the whole sixty bucks on # 7 Finnegans Wake (2.20) to win The Eddie Read.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of  1 / 6 / 7 / 2 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $943.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/18/15 Del Mar Pick Five - Preview

It's the first Saturday of the Summer Meet at Del Mar, and the featured race is the Grade 1 Eddie Read.  Since the big stakes is Race 4 on the card, we'll move our play from late to early in order to include it, and take a run at the Pick Five where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 1 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Dynamite Ride (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 3 Tiz Jolie (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Papa Kade (ML 4-1)

# 4 Afleet in Time (ML 5-2) has been scratched.

Dynamite Ride took the Place last time out at this distance against more expensive stock.  Tiz Jolie was in that same contest as Dynamite Ride and didn't have enough at the end.  But the fractions may not be as quick today, which would give Tiz Jolie a better shot at victory.  Papa Kade switches from an apprentice to a Hall of Fame rider, and gets some significant class relief.  Will that be enough to get Papa Kade to the Winner's Circle?  Probably not; but it might.

RACE 2 - Clm $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 I Don't Care Who (ML 3-1)

# 6 Knock Em Flat (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Macho Sox (ML 7-2)

C's 

None

I Don't Care Who won at this level two starts back, crossing the wire four and a half lengths in front of Knock Em Flat, who took the Show.  I think Knock Em Flat is going to have a much easier go of it on the front end today, which should give Knock Em Flat an at least equal chance of turning the tables on I Don't Care Who.  Also take note these two horses each run for different trainers than they did in that contest back in May.

Macho Sox is moving up in class; not just to a higher claiming price, but also from conditioned to open claimers.  Still, Macho Sox does have the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and is going first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with over twenty percent of such.

RACE 3 - MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Dare to Believe (ML 12-1)

# 5 Kelly With a Twist (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Toews On Ice (ML 2-1)

# 2 Uncle Lino (ML 15-1)

# 8 Bedeviled (ML 12-1)

C's

# 3 Bistraya (ML 20-1)

# 6 Ring Collector (ML 4-1)

# 7 Rockin Bayou (ML 5-2)

This contest is for two year olds, and this is the initial start for all eight entrants; the type of race that makes you want to just punch the "ALL" button and get on with your life.  

Dare to Believe was sired by More Than Ready, whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debut attempts.  Kelly With a Twist is trained by Doug O'Neill, who wins approximately 15% of the time with first time starters.  I also like the gate work Kelly With a Twist had just three days ago.

Toews On Ice is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, which is why Toews On Ice is the Morning Line Favorite.  But Toews On Ice's sire Archarcharch has yet to establish himself as a producer of precocious runners, and Towes On Ice's works have been spaced further apart than I like to see in a first time starter.

Uncle Lino is sired by Uncle Mo, who has seen 25% winners from his debut progeny in a very small sample.  Bedeviled is sired by Luckin At Lucky, whose offspring win approximately 19% of their first time tries.  The C's are the rest of the field.

RACE 4 - The Eddie Read (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Finnegans Wake (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Midnight Storm (ML 8-5)

# 4 Power Ped (ML 8-1)

Finnegans Wake is the clear class of this field, and if he runs anywhere near as well as he did in the Grade 1 Turf Classic (his most recent turf contest at today's distance) then he will get his picture taken again today.  Midnight Storm might steal it on the front end, especially if # 5 Big Casanova (Arg) (ML 12-1) fails to go with him early.  Power Ped probably isn't at this class level yet; but Power Ped's effort last time out in the Grade 2 San Marcos makes him worthy of respect.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Quality Chimes (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Kenny's Girl (ML 5-1)

# 8 Not Tonight (ML 12-1)

C's

# 6 Sailor's Cry (ML 4-1)

The last time Quality Chimes participated in a dirt sprint, she took the Place against more expensive.  Kenny's Girl missed by less than a length at this class level two starts back.  Not Tonight could be the quickest out the gate in this field.  Sailor's Cry could wake up with the drop in the class.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 2,3 with 1,3,6 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 7 with 2,4,8 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 6 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 3,6,7 with 7 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 3,4 with 2 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 6 $2.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/11/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Tough Annie (Final Odds 10.60) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Zuzu's Petals (2.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Great Lady M - # 6 Fantastic Style (2.50) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Not Enough Eddie (0.60*) - "A" Selection

It was a Pick Four to make Andy Beyer proud, as each of the four winners was the runner with the best (or co-best) last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field.  Hindsight being 20-20, we could have saved ourselves a lot of money today by simply following that angle; but as we cash anyway, it's not something that we need dwell on for too long.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 5 Rock Steady Eddie (20.70) - $1,565.65 Finish: 6th
# 6 Land of the Free (8.20) - $758.75 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  The actual winning Pick Four sequence of  3 / 3 / 6 / 4  paid $212.20 for a fifty cent wager, making for approximate odds of 7-3 on our $63.50 outlay.  

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/11/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

They're running the Grade 2 Great Lady M Saturday.  It's the featured eighth race at Los Alamitos, and it's part of the Late Pick Four which we will be chasing.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Tough Annie (Morning Line 10-1)
# 6 Haaay Sexy Lady (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Easter Lillian (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Smooth Talker (ML 5-2)

Tough Annie's last four outings have been over this track at night in Quarter Horse competition.  But if you look at those as elaborate in-company workouts, then her form fits well here, especially since her last race that involved making a turn saw her earning a Beyer Speed Figure that ties for the best last time out with the one earned by Haaay Sexy Lady.  At the very least, Tough Annie should be heard from early.

Haaay Sexy Lady comes back just a week after getting her second career win by nearly five lengths.  Haaay Sexy Lady will be going first off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who wins with about a fifth of such.  

Easter Lillian ran out of gas last time out against more expensive.  Easter Lillian will be running on Lasix for the first time today, in this her sixth career start.  Smooth Talker has been earning Beyers that fit with this class level, but she'll need the early speed to back up in order to have a chance.

RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Watdifrenzdzitmake (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Zuzu's Petals (ML 5-2)
# 4 Asparagus (ML 6-1) 
# 5 True History (ML 3-1)
# 6 My Sweet Afleet (ML 6-1)

C's

# 7 Ivana Beat Yabad (ML 4-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least not until they finally fix that flaw).

Watdifrenzdzitmake draws the furthest outside post; and while that 's not an ideal place to be on this course when going exactly a mile, it could allow for Watdifrezdzitmake to sit just off the early speed and make a nice stretch run.

Zuzu's Petals has shown an annoying willingness to settle for minor awards; indeed, Zuzu's Petals is winless in her nine starts following her debut, despite having been the Post Time in four of those contests.  Perhaps going two turns for the first time will change her attitude towards leading the pack.

True History and My Sweet Afleet fit well on class; if they can carry their form from the turf onto the dirt then they should do well today.  Likewise Asparagus, who is trying real dirt for the first time. 

Ivana Beat Yabad has good early speed, but may be hampered by the outside draw; as the last time that Ivana Beat Yabad drew outside either the # 1 or # 2 Post Position was also the last time that she finished outside the Superfecta.

RACE 8 - (F) The Great Lady M. (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Fantastic Style (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Clearly Confused (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Sunday Rules (ML 5-2)
# 7 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)

# 3 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Fantastic Style took a big step forward in the Angels Flight Stakes last time out, and looks to be the quickest in this field.  There should be enough early speed here to allow Clearly Confused to make a good late run at the leaders.

Sunday Rules is undefeated, but this will be her toughest class test to date.  Sunday Rules doesn't look to be as quick as Fantastic Style; but if Fantastic Style should falter early, then Sunday Rules may get loose on the lead.

Warren's Veneda is the class of this field on paper, but this is clearly not enough distance for her to do her best running.  Still, Warren's Vaneda may not need to do her best running to win here.

RACE 9 - Clm $8k N2X - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Not Enough Eddie (ML 5-2)
# 5 Rock Steady Eddie (ML 10-1)
# 6 Land of the Free (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 7 Pax Tecum (ML 3-1)

# 9 No Bachi (ML 15-1)

Not Enough Eddie and Rock Steady Eddie share the honor of having the best last out Beyer, with each having earned their respective number while facing tougher competition than they will today.  Land of the Free has shown good early speed in each of his last two contests; perhaps a sign of good things to come from an entrant that typically does his best running late.

Pax Tecum and No Bachi both finished in the money at this class level last time out, with Pax Tecum getting to the wire first but having his number taken down for interfering with No Bachi.  Perhaps if these two can keep out of each other's way, either or both may move forward today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 6 with 4,5,6 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 3,4,5,6,8 with 2,6 with 4,5,6 $45.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 6 with 4,5,6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 7 with 6 with 4,5,6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 5,7 with 4,5,6 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 6 with 7,9 $2.00

Total: $63.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/5/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 5 Buckleberry Grey (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 5 Little Emma (6.90) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Grammy Times Six (10.90) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Big Rosie Brown (11.30) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 4 Distinctive B (1.80) - "B" Selection

Not a good day for the home team, as we catch both ends of the sequence but nothing in the middle. Since our lone single, # 6 Bella Breeze (0.30*) in Race 2, was among those who failed to come through for us, at least we can take some solace in the fact that our bottom line would have been the same had we just placed the whole bundle on her to Win.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of  5 / 5 / 6 / 2 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $3,028.15 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/5/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Pick Five - Preview

Switching it up a bit today, as we're moving our action from early to late and taking a run at Sunday's Pick 5 at Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 1 - Alw 25000s - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Derringer (Morning Line 3-1)

# 5 Buckleberry Grey (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 2 Success Rate (ML 2-1)

# 3 Moonlight Meeting (ML 5-2)

# 4 Teton County (No Line) is a program scratch.

The conditions for this contest limit it to runners which:

1) Have started for a claiming price of $25k or less in 2014-2015;

AND

2) Since have not won a claiming, starter, or optional race exceeding $25k.

So if a runner has won a race for more than $25k either this year or last he could still be eligible to run here, provided that victory came prior to, and not after, that same runner being entered for a tag of $25k or less in some other contest in either 2014 or 2015.

Derringer held on to take the Show last time out against open $25k claimers when he couldn't win the battle for the early lead; the rail draw today should help Derringer's chances in that regard.  Buckleberry has been much improved now that he is being kept off the grass. 

Success Rate puts the hood back on; Trainer Bob Hess Jr gets about 28% winners when he makes that move.  Moonlight Meeting is on the ticket because you never want to use "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race wager; and, yes, using just three horses here would constitute using "ALL but one."

RACE 2 - (F) Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Bella Breeze (ML 7-5)

B's

None

# 1 Jackie K (NL) is a program scratch.  # 7 Pretty Patricia (ML 5-2) is a vet scratch.

Bella Breeze missed graduating against more expensive by just a nose in her debut two starts back, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that, if repeated, should get the job done today.

RACE 3 - (F) Alw 16000s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Wild Caroline (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Sheza Eyeopener (ML 5-1)

# 4 Shopping Savannah (ML 3-1)

# 2 Winninginfashion (ML 4-1) is a vet scratch.

The conditions for this contest limit it to runners which:

1) Have started for a claiming price of $16k or less in 2014-2015;

AND

2) Since have not won a claiming, starter, or optional race exceeding $16k.

So it's the same conditions as Race 1 above, just substituting $16k for $25k.

Wild Caroline has won three of her last four starts, each win coming for a different trainer; and she has yet another trainer today, Jorge Periban, who's one-for-four with runners going first time off the claim.  

Sheza Eyeopener is the horse for the course, having won three of her four prior career starts over this track.  Shopping Savannah won for $20k earlier this year, but gets in because she'd been entered for $16k in each of her three starts since then, including her win last time out.

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 I Heart You (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 6 Warrens Goldnugget (ML 4-1)

I Heart You has finished in the money in each of her last three starts, all at this class level.  Warrens Goldnugget has finished in the money twice in her career; both of those successes coming in her only two prior races on this track.  

RACE 5 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Oil (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 2 Inspired Wisdom (ML 10-1)

# 4 Distinctive B (ML 2-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least not until they finally fix that flaw).

Oil just missed by a head winning at this class level last time out, over at Santa Anita.  Distinctive B graduated last time out, winning by the length of the stretch and earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that ties Oil for best last out in that category.  There seems to be a lot of early speed in this contest; if it should all fall apart, Inspired Wisdom could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P5: 1,5 with 6 with 3 with 1 with 3 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 1,2,3,5 with 6 with 1,3,4 with 1,6 with 2,3,4 $36.00

Total: $40.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 5:15 EDT / 2:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Xingontothebone (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Class Divine (5.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby - # 2 Gimme Da Lute (3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Haaay Sexy Lady (4.30) - "A" Selection

We were correct to be suspicious of the ability of # 4 Kentuckian (0.40*) to get the distance in The Los Alamitos Derby; but unfortunately not suspicious enough to elevate Gimme Da Lute from a "B" Selection to an "A".  And while having everyone covered in the finale was one of the kindest things we've done for our blood pressure in quite some time, we could have substantially cut the cost of our play by punching in just our four "A" Selections in that leg.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 2 Rock N Bunny (10.60) - $461.60 Finish: 3rd
# 3 Yawannagokid (4.70) - $183.80 Finish: 6th
# 4 Aquacita (11.10) - $397.45 Finish: 5th
# 5 She’s a Hugger (47.10) - $2,340.40 Finish: 9th
# 6 Lady Dash (7.60) - $329.30 Finish: 2nd
# 7 Classic Journey (38.3) - $2,371.50 Finish: 8th
# 8 Lady Now (1.60*) - $214.50 Finish: 7th
# 9 Beyond Lucky (7.40) - $368.95 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  The actual winning Pick Four sequence of  4 / 8 / 2 / 1  paid $187.15 for a fifty cent wager, making for approximate odds of 9-4 on our $57 outlay.  Which, for the record, is just fine by me, as that is significantly more than we would have collected had we just put the whole amount on our lone single, Xingontothebone, to Win (not to mention being a lot more than we would have collected had Xingontothebone, or any of our other selections, lost).

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - The Declaration of Independence

Happy 4th of July to all, both in and outside of the United States.  A huge day of racing today, most notably in New York, where Belmont Park has put together another monster card for its Stars and Stripes Day.  As for us, we'll be focusing our attention on the opposite coast, where The Los Alamitos Derby is the featured race, and part of the Los Al Late Pick Four that we'll be chasing.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Xingontothebone (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

None

# 1 El Lucero (No Line) and # 7 Speedin With Eddie (NL) are program scratches.

Xingontothebone took the Show in the $125k Santa Anita Juvenile last time out.  Prior to that, Xingontothebone took the Show against open non-claiming maidens, and in the race before that he took the Show against state-bred non-claiming maidens (incidentally, that race was won by Found Money, who also won the Santa Anita Juvenile).  If Xingontothebone runs back to any of those three races today, then he should win by daylight.  I personally think that Morning Line is very optimistic; I will be very much surprised if Xingontothebone leaves the gate at odds higher than 7-5.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Mucho Blessings (ML 5-2)

# 8 Class Divine (ML 7-2)

# 9 Goose Bumps (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Warren's Tea Party (ML 15-1)

# 11 Stormys' Blazer (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligibles List.  Perhaps she'll run tomorrow.

Mucho Blessings finished right smack in the middle of a nine horse field in her only prior try on a real dirt track.  But Mucho Blessings is getting some class relief to offset the change in surface, and she seems well suited to today's distance.

Class Divine took the Place against more expensive the last time that she competed on dirt.  Goose Bumps flashed some early quickness last time out before throwing in the towel against more expensive.  Expect Goose Bumps to be even quicker today with the addition of blinkers.

Warren's Tea Party was last throughout in her debut last time out; but that was charging down the hill against non-claiming state bred maidens.  As far as I'm concerned that race was just a stamina building workout.  I don't know if Warren's Tea Party will improve with the switch to dirt; but I do know that if she does, she stands an excellent chance of lighting up the tote board like a Christmas tree.

RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Kentuckian (ML 6-5)

B's

# 2 Gimme Da Lute (ML 5-2)

# 5 Prospect Park (ML 8-5)

Kentuckian, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith, made a big move forward last time out, winning the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera after having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the San Pedro in his prior race.  If Kentuckian can repeat his last out effort then he should win today; but this will be Kentuckian's first try around two turns; and while his breeding suggests that he should handle it, you always want to be cautious about accepting short odds on a young horse doing something for the first time.

Gimme Da Lute and Prospect Park finished one-two last time out in the Grade 3 Affirmed, separated by less than a length at the wire.  If Kentuckian should falter, then it seems likely that one of these two will be the one to get their picture taken today.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Haaay Sexy Lady (ML 7-2)

# 3 Yawannagokid (ML 3-1)

# 4 Aguacita (ML 4-1)

# 8 Lady Now (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Rock N Bunny (ML 8-1)

# 5 She's a Hugger (ML 20-1)

# 6 Lady Dash (ML 12-1)

# 7 Classic Journey (ML 20-1)

# 9 Beyond Lucky (ML 6-1)

Haaay Sexy Lady last time out and Yawannagokid two starts back each earned Beyer Speed Figures against more expensive stock that should get the job done today.  Aguacita, who is taking a huge drop in class, has shown the ability to be up near the lead against more expensive; it would not surprise to see her wire the field today.  

Lady Now may finally be over whatever was ailing her earlier this year, as she earned a Beyer Speed Figure last time out that's more in line with those that she was earning last Summer.

The backups are all the other entrants in this contest.  This one looks like it could be pure chaos, especially when you consider that She's a Hugger is the only runner here to have finished in the money last time out, and she did so by beating $3.5k maidens.

OK, that's the analysis.  Per usual, we'll be playing our tickets in Crist fashion, but with a bit of a wrinkle: we're going to hit the "ALL" button for the finale on our "A's with One C" ticket.  So with that, we get this:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 3,8,9 with 4 with 1,3,4,8 $12.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,8,9 with 2,4,5 with ALL $40.50

A's with One C with "ALL" in the finale

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 4 with ALL $4.50

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo