Race 6 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 6 Flying Scotsman (Final Odds 1.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Qahira (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 The Hunted (1.90*) - "B" Selection & "B" Selection*
Race 10 - # 10 Littlebitamedal (3.60) - "B" Selection
* # 5 Jet Set Ruler was a late scratch from Race 8, so I received The Hunted, the Post Time Favorite, in his place.
Part of the handicapping process for a multi-race sequence is seeking to determine an approximate amount as to what the likely payoff will be. This is necessary in order to guide decisions regarding how deep to go in certain legs; as the more horses you use on your big ticket, the greater the cost of your play; and you want to be sure (well, as sure as you can be) that the potential payoff justifies your initial outlay.
Handicapping Sunday's sequence, I felt that there was an above average probability that The Late Pick Four payout would be substantial, as each leg appeared to have the potential to be a wide open affair. Instead we were treated to a chalk parade, with only the nightcap being won be a non-Post Time Favorite.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Sought Bai (2.90) - $38.40 Finish: 7th
# 9 Astonishing Tweet (2.50*) - $27.35 Finish: 5th
# 11 Malachim (26.30) - $257.90 Finish: 6th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 9 / 8 / 10 which paid $52.55 for a fifty cent wager. Thanks to Jet Set Ruler's late scratch combined with The Hunted's victory in the third leg, I collect double that amount. That makes for a profit of $5.10 on my initial $100 investment, or odds of 0.051-1. Which sure ain't much; but one thing you're never going to see me do is turn my nose up at profit.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 25, 2018
11/25/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
As it was on the program yesterday, so it is today in Southern California, with two Graded Stakes on the card. The earlier of the two, the Grade 3 Native Diver, fall outside the realm of this preview. But I will be taking a look at the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Rijeka (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Vantastic (ML 5-2)
# 6 Flying Scotsman (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Takeo Squared (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sayin Grace (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 4 Irish Heatwave (ML 8-1)
Juveniles on the turf; none of whom have defeated winners. Rijeka (Ire), Show runner in the Zuma Beach last time out, looks best at a price. But, again, juveniles on the turf; if you have the budget, just punch the "ALL" button and move on.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bizwhacks (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Claudelle (ML 9-2)
# 8 Tizwellwithmysoul (ML 15-1)
# 9 Qahira (ML 3-1)
# 10 Slewgoodtobetrue (ML 7-2)
C's
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Rijeka (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Vantastic (ML 5-2)
# 6 Flying Scotsman (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Takeo Squared (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sayin Grace (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 4 Irish Heatwave (ML 8-1)
Juveniles on the turf; none of whom have defeated winners. Rijeka (Ire), Show runner in the Zuma Beach last time out, looks best at a price. But, again, juveniles on the turf; if you have the budget, just punch the "ALL" button and move on.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bizwhacks (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Claudelle (ML 9-2)
# 8 Tizwellwithmysoul (ML 15-1)
# 9 Qahira (ML 3-1)
# 10 Slewgoodtobetrue (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Suprema (ML 12-1)
# 4 Posit (ML 15-1)
# 5 To the Morning (ML 8-1)
# 6 Happy Tune (ML 6-1)
# 7 Fight Night (ML 20-1)
# 5 To the Morning (ML 8-1)
# 6 Happy Tune (ML 6-1)
# 7 Fight Night (ML 20-1)
More juveniles, this time fillies on the dirt. The big plus with these races is that you could be watching a future star make their initial steps in what could be a great career.
Bizwhacks could improve by getting off the lawn and going around just one turn. Claudelle has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her three career starts.
Tizwellwithmysoul and Qahira are a pair of debut runners trained by Jerry Holendorfer and Bob Baffert, respectively. Slewgoodtobetrue closed well in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Acclimate (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 5 Jet Set Ruler (ML 3-1)
# 8 The Hunted (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Hot Perfection (ML 20-1)
# 2 Push Through (ML 6-1)
# 2 Push Through (ML 6-1)
# 4 Six Point Rack (ML 7-2)
# 7 Shaymin (ML 8-1)
# 7 Shaymin (ML 8-1)
# 9 Carville (ML 12-1)
# 10 Duke of Fallbrook (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Elwood J (ML 12-1)
Acclimate looked much improved in his first start for Trainer Phil D'Amato last time out. Jet Set Ruler could improve with the return to Del Mar, as well as by going second off the layoff. The Hunted won for fun last time out in his graduation; perhaps The Hunted has finally figured out what this racing stuff is all about.
I ultimately decided that Six Point Race and Shaymin have both had enough chances at this class level without succeeding; but those of you with larger budgets may wish to consider putting one or both on your big tickets, while I use them both along with the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Sought Bai (ML 4-1)
B's
# 9 Astonishing Tweet (ML 3-1)
# 10 Littlebitamedal (ML 6-1)
# 11 Malachim (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Fleetwood (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mikeys Glory (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mikeys Glory (ML 20-1)
# 4 Iron Curtain (ML 6-1)
# 6 Jonas (ML 20-1)
# 7 Moon Juice (ML 8-1)
# 6 Jonas (ML 20-1)
# 7 Moon Juice (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 5 Spanish Bay (ML 7-2) and # 8 Thefourfortyfourth (No Line)
Sought Bai is getting awfully close to running out of chances on this circuit; but Sought Bai's early speed is just too good to ignore at this class level.
Astonishing Tweet makes his second career start for Trainer Michael McCarthy, who tends to do well with such. Littlebitamedal could improve with the class drop and the return to one turn racing. Malachim is a first time starter sired by First Defence, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,6 with 1,2,8,9,10 with 3,5,8 with 2,9,10,11 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 3 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,4,5,6,7 with 3 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,2,4,7,9,10 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 1,3,4,6,7 $2.50
Total: $100.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 24, 2018
11/24/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Kershaw (Final Odds 2.60*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Seabiscuit - # 1 Caribou Club (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Spokane Eagle (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Suspicious Spouse (2.80*) - "B" Selection
On the one hand, it's always a positive to get your big ticket single home, because it means that you were not only correct in your analysis, but also economical in your play. On the other hand, getting your big ticket single home and not collecting can be quite frustrating, because it means that you could have cashed by simply putting the entire bankroll on your single, and not worrying about the other contests in the sequence.
So it went Saturday, as the big ticket single Spokane Eagle was a clear winner in the third leg; but "A" Selection # 5 Popular Kid (5.00) was a half length too slow in getting to the wire in the opening stanza, and had to settle for the Place.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 1 / 5 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $264.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Seabiscuit - # 1 Caribou Club (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Spokane Eagle (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Suspicious Spouse (2.80*) - "B" Selection
On the one hand, it's always a positive to get your big ticket single home, because it means that you were not only correct in your analysis, but also economical in your play. On the other hand, getting your big ticket single home and not collecting can be quite frustrating, because it means that you could have cashed by simply putting the entire bankroll on your single, and not worrying about the other contests in the sequence.
So it went Saturday, as the big ticket single Spokane Eagle was a clear winner in the third leg; but "A" Selection # 5 Popular Kid (5.00) was a half length too slow in getting to the wire in the opening stanza, and had to settle for the Place.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 1 / 5 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $264.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/24/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
The US Holiday weekend continues with a pair of Graded Stakes in Southern California. One of those, the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, falls outside the final four contests on the card, and therefore outside my purview. But I will be taking a look at the Grade 2 Seabiscuit below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Popular Kid (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Jungle Warfare (ML 4-1)
# 7 Giant Influence (ML 5-1)
# 8 Sheer Flattery (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Jan's Reserve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Kershaw (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellerin (ML 15-1)
# 9 Canadian Game (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
Popular Kid, claimed six times in his last ten races, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Jungle Warfare has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three races.
Giant Influence is getting some class relief. Sheer Flattery beat a next out winner last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Pincheck (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Caribou Club (ML 6-1)
# 6 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ohio (Brz) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Big Score (ML 6-1)
# 3 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 8-1)
# 5 Holiday Stone (ML 12-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 9-2)
# 8 Kenjisstorm (ML 8-1)
# 9 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Secretary At War (ML 20-1)
# 12 He Will (ML 8-1)
Pincheck (Ire) makes his North American debut Saturday after decisively winning the Group 3 Desmond two starts back. Caribou Club closed well last time out to take the Show while charging down the Santa Anita hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D. Expect Caribou Club to be much closer to the pace today.
Madame Stripes (Arg) has been competitive at this class level all year long, despite not getting her picture taken since January. Ohio (Brz) could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Spokane Eagle (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Will Tell (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tanners Pride (ML 5-1)
# 4 Silver Summer (ML 15-1)
# 6 Face of Victory (ML 7-2)
# 7 Psychedelicat (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zippy Groom (ML 6-1)
# 9 Downside Up (ML 12-1)
# 10 Our Tiger's Boy (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Smuggler Union (ML 6-1)
If I were inclined to double the cost of the big ticket, I would probably make Face of Victory a "B" Selection. But I don't believe that the cost of moving Face of Victory up from backup "C" Selection territory to the big ticket can be justified in light of the fact that Face of Victory doesn't project to be a much higher price on the tote board than Spokane Eagle, despite having (in my opinion) a significant lower chance of winning. So Spokane Eagle is my big ticket single, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Kentan Road (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Suspicious Spouse (ML 6-1)
# 3 Helen's Tiger (ML 9-2)
# 5 Naughty Sophie (ML 7-2)
# 7 Happiness (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Fracas (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gone to Town (ML 12-1)
# 6 Well Hello (ML 6-1)
# 9 Batiquitos (ML 6-1)
# 10 Ladybug (ML 8-1)
# 11 Hailey Rachele (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 12 Easy Grader (ML 5-1); # 13 Time for Ebby (ML 20-1); # 14 Bako Sweets (ML 4-1)
Kentan Road took the Place at this class level last time out. Suspicious Spouse looks well poised to take advantage of the rail draw. Helen's Tiger could improve with the return to the Del Mar course.
Naughty Sophie took the Place at this class level in her first turf try last time out. Happiness seems to have the breeding to do well in turf sprints. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,7,8 with 1,4,6,10 with 5 with 1,3,5,7,8 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,9 with 4 with 5 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,5,7,8,9,11,12 with 5 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 2,4,6,9,10,11 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Popular Kid (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Jungle Warfare (ML 4-1)
# 7 Giant Influence (ML 5-1)
# 8 Sheer Flattery (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Jan's Reserve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Kershaw (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellerin (ML 15-1)
# 9 Canadian Game (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
Popular Kid, claimed six times in his last ten races, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Jungle Warfare has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three races.
Giant Influence is getting some class relief. Sheer Flattery beat a next out winner last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Pincheck (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Caribou Club (ML 6-1)
# 6 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ohio (Brz) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Big Score (ML 6-1)
# 3 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 8-1)
# 5 Holiday Stone (ML 12-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 9-2)
# 8 Kenjisstorm (ML 8-1)
# 9 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Secretary At War (ML 20-1)
# 12 He Will (ML 8-1)
Pincheck (Ire) makes his North American debut Saturday after decisively winning the Group 3 Desmond two starts back. Caribou Club closed well last time out to take the Show while charging down the Santa Anita hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D. Expect Caribou Club to be much closer to the pace today.
Madame Stripes (Arg) has been competitive at this class level all year long, despite not getting her picture taken since January. Ohio (Brz) could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Spokane Eagle (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Will Tell (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tanners Pride (ML 5-1)
# 4 Silver Summer (ML 15-1)
# 6 Face of Victory (ML 7-2)
# 7 Psychedelicat (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zippy Groom (ML 6-1)
# 9 Downside Up (ML 12-1)
# 10 Our Tiger's Boy (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Smuggler Union (ML 6-1)
If I were inclined to double the cost of the big ticket, I would probably make Face of Victory a "B" Selection. But I don't believe that the cost of moving Face of Victory up from backup "C" Selection territory to the big ticket can be justified in light of the fact that Face of Victory doesn't project to be a much higher price on the tote board than Spokane Eagle, despite having (in my opinion) a significant lower chance of winning. So Spokane Eagle is my big ticket single, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Kentan Road (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Suspicious Spouse (ML 6-1)
# 3 Helen's Tiger (ML 9-2)
# 5 Naughty Sophie (ML 7-2)
# 7 Happiness (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Fracas (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gone to Town (ML 12-1)
# 6 Well Hello (ML 6-1)
# 9 Batiquitos (ML 6-1)
# 10 Ladybug (ML 8-1)
# 11 Hailey Rachele (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 12 Easy Grader (ML 5-1); # 13 Time for Ebby (ML 20-1); # 14 Bako Sweets (ML 4-1)
Kentan Road took the Place at this class level last time out. Suspicious Spouse looks well poised to take advantage of the rail draw. Helen's Tiger could improve with the return to the Del Mar course.
Naughty Sophie took the Place at this class level in her first turf try last time out. Happiness seems to have the breeding to do well in turf sprints. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,7,8 with 1,4,6,10 with 5 with 1,3,5,7,8 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,9 with 4 with 5 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,5,7,8,9,11,12 with 5 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 2,4,6,9,10,11 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 22, 2018
11/22/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 4 Secret Touch (Final Odds 2.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - The Red Carpet - # 5 India Mantuana (18.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Danuska's My Girl (9.60) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Amandine (GB) (4.40) - "A" Selection
India Mantuana projected as a front runner in the Grade 3 Red Carpet; but not as a lonely leader, which she proved to be while winning that event. In addition, # 2 Amuse (0.80*) proved to be not quite yet ready for prime time in her first try against winners, though she did close well in Race 7 to grab the Place. But the good news on the day was that I did get my "A" Selection home in the nightcap, and hopefully at least some of you used Amandine (GB) to get out Thursday.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 1 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $5,354.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - The Red Carpet - # 5 India Mantuana (18.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Danuska's My Girl (9.60) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Amandine (GB) (4.40) - "A" Selection
India Mantuana projected as a front runner in the Grade 3 Red Carpet; but not as a lonely leader, which she proved to be while winning that event. In addition, # 2 Amuse (0.80*) proved to be not quite yet ready for prime time in her first try against winners, though she did close well in Race 7 to grab the Place. But the good news on the day was that I did get my "A" Selection home in the nightcap, and hopefully at least some of you used Amandine (GB) to get out Thursday.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 1 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $5,354.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/22/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
“Reflect upon your present blessings, of which every man has plenty; not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some.” – Charles Dickens
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
A programming note: while there will be racing (lots of racing!) Friday, other obligations mean that there will be no blog post here; but good Lord willing I'll be back posting on Saturday. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Topgallant (Morning Line 5-1)
B’s
# 4 Secret Touch (ML 5-1)
# 5 Original Intent (ML 3-1)
# 6 Typhoon Harry (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Jersey's Heat (ML 8-1)
# 3 Rhettbutler (ML 8-1)
# 8 Midnight Soot (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 6-1)
The conditions for this one state that if your horse is four years old or older, he cannot run here if he has won two or more races in his lifetime. However, if your horse is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction; at least there's none stated in the conditions; but the more I see races with these conditions the more I wonder if three year olds are restricted to no more than two career wins.
Topgallant is a reclaim by Trainer Dan Hendricks, after running two races for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong. Topgallant and Secret Touch have run well in the past over this main track.
Original Intent took the Place in front of Topgallant at this approximate level at Santa Anita last time out. Typhoon Harry goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Vexatious (ML 3-1)
# 9 Escape Clause (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 India Mantuana (ML 6-1)
# 6 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lucy De (ML 6-1)
# 8 So Hi Society (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Victress (ML 20-1)
The Tuplip (Ire) could improve with the added distance. Vexatious got the Win via DQ in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland last time out. Escape Clause got the Win via DQ in the Kathryn Crosby over this turf course last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Amuse (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Sheza Chattykat (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Danuska's My Girl (ML 12-1)
# 3 Conquest Flatterme (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oozie (ML 5-2)
# 6 Lady Ninja (ML 4-1)
# 7 Kindred (ML 20-1)
This race goes through Amuse, a solid winner while graduating in her second career start last time out. If you don't find Amuse's Win last time out all that convincing, then you probably want to go deeper in this leg, and put Oozie (another last out graduate) and (probably) Lady Ninja on your big ticket, along with Sheza Chattykat. Conversely, you may like Amuse's victory last time out so much that you just make her a big ticket single here. I think I've struck the proper balance by going two deep; but there are certainly lots of ways you could go in this leg.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Amandine (GB) (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Tell Me More (ML 5-1)
# 5 A Little Bit Me (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tyfosha (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Poetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Katherine (ML 8-1)
# 9 Drift Away (ML 20-1)
# 10 Wind Tartare (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Miss Boom Boom (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 11 Lea's Reward (ML 30-1)
A first level Allowance race (well, Optional Claimer) on the turf. Lots of runners who have been hanging around this condition for awhile. Amandine (GB) is a new shooter, making her first North American start; so I'll give her the nod. Oleksandra (Aus) graduated in her North American debut last time out; maybe she'll build on that win. The rest of the logical contenders (in my opinion) go onto the big ticket, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections; but in these contests on the turf, it often just comes down to which horse feels like winning today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 4,7,9,10,12 $2.50
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
A programming note: while there will be racing (lots of racing!) Friday, other obligations mean that there will be no blog post here; but good Lord willing I'll be back posting on Saturday. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Topgallant (Morning Line 5-1)
B’s
# 4 Secret Touch (ML 5-1)
# 5 Original Intent (ML 3-1)
# 6 Typhoon Harry (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Jersey's Heat (ML 8-1)
# 3 Rhettbutler (ML 8-1)
# 8 Midnight Soot (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 6-1)
The conditions for this one state that if your horse is four years old or older, he cannot run here if he has won two or more races in his lifetime. However, if your horse is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction; at least there's none stated in the conditions; but the more I see races with these conditions the more I wonder if three year olds are restricted to no more than two career wins.
Topgallant is a reclaim by Trainer Dan Hendricks, after running two races for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong. Topgallant and Secret Touch have run well in the past over this main track.
Original Intent took the Place in front of Topgallant at this approximate level at Santa Anita last time out. Typhoon Harry goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Vexatious (ML 3-1)
# 9 Escape Clause (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 India Mantuana (ML 6-1)
# 6 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lucy De (ML 6-1)
# 8 So Hi Society (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Victress (ML 20-1)
The Tuplip (Ire) could improve with the added distance. Vexatious got the Win via DQ in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland last time out. Escape Clause got the Win via DQ in the Kathryn Crosby over this turf course last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Amuse (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Sheza Chattykat (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Danuska's My Girl (ML 12-1)
# 3 Conquest Flatterme (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oozie (ML 5-2)
# 6 Lady Ninja (ML 4-1)
# 7 Kindred (ML 20-1)
This race goes through Amuse, a solid winner while graduating in her second career start last time out. If you don't find Amuse's Win last time out all that convincing, then you probably want to go deeper in this leg, and put Oozie (another last out graduate) and (probably) Lady Ninja on your big ticket, along with Sheza Chattykat. Conversely, you may like Amuse's victory last time out so much that you just make her a big ticket single here. I think I've struck the proper balance by going two deep; but there are certainly lots of ways you could go in this leg.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Amandine (GB) (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Tell Me More (ML 5-1)
# 5 A Little Bit Me (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tyfosha (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Poetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Katherine (ML 8-1)
# 9 Drift Away (ML 20-1)
# 10 Wind Tartare (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Miss Boom Boom (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 11 Lea's Reward (ML 30-1)
A first level Allowance race (well, Optional Claimer) on the turf. Lots of runners who have been hanging around this condition for awhile. Amandine (GB) is a new shooter, making her first North American start; so I'll give her the nod. Oleksandra (Aus) graduated in her North American debut last time out; maybe she'll build on that win. The rest of the logical contenders (in my opinion) go onto the big ticket, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections; but in these contests on the turf, it often just comes down to which horse feels like winning today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 4,7,9,10,12 $2.50
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 18, 2018
11/18/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Nero (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Bob and Jackie (5.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 4 Solid Wager (4.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Push Through (1.50*) - "A" Selection
As I feared in the preview, Nero won the opening leg by daylight, making my decision to spread in that contest look pretty foolish in hindsight. However, # 7 Omaha Beach (0.90*) made me look like a genius in the second leg, as he once again disappointed as the Post Time Favorite. Ultimately, when all was said and done, Sunday's results provided further evidence as to why it's a good idea to play backup tickets.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 4 / 4 / 7 paid $124.15 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $34.15 on my initial $90 investment, or approximate odds of 0.38-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Bob and Jackie (5.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 4 Solid Wager (4.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Push Through (1.50*) - "A" Selection
As I feared in the preview, Nero won the opening leg by daylight, making my decision to spread in that contest look pretty foolish in hindsight. However, # 7 Omaha Beach (0.90*) made me look like a genius in the second leg, as he once again disappointed as the Post Time Favorite. Ultimately, when all was said and done, Sunday's results provided further evidence as to why it's a good idea to play backup tickets.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 4 / 4 / 7 paid $124.15 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $34.15 on my initial $90 investment, or approximate odds of 0.38-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/18/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Half of the final four events on Sunday's program in SoCal are turf routes for non-winners of one; that should make things interesting. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Nero (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Cool Bobby (ML 7-2)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Goren (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 The Rule of King's (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Cobra (ML 5-1)
# 4 Denman's Call (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Allaboutaction (ML 5-1)
The Bob Baffert trained Nero has the capability in this contest to make me look very foolish for not making him a big ticket single. Nero has run well in each of his three career races, including last time out in the Grade 2 San Vicente, back in February. For his return off the extended vacation Nero is flashing the Baffert Bullets in his workouts, showing that he's ready to roll.
So what are the concerns with Nero? Well, while Nero ran well in each of his prior races, he didn't run all that well. In addition, this will be Nero's first try against older runners. So, while it may prove to be a foolish move on my part, I'm going to spread a bit in this leg.
Cool Bobby, another three year old making his first try against older, could improve with the return to one turn racing. Best Two Minutes, now trained by Steve Knapp, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Goren looked impressive in his graduation last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Bob and Jackie (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 All Out (ML 20-1)
# 7 Omaha Beach (ML 8-5)
# 8 Noble Nebraskan (ML 3-1)
# 10 Instanbul (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shining Through (ML 20-1)
# 5 Macwinnon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Dinesen (ML 8-1)
# 9 Loomis (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Afleeting Life (ML 20-1)
Using five runners in a leg where the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 8-5 means that this is another leg where I could wind up looking very foolish. But these are juveniles, with all the risks involved with trying to guess which ones may have experienced a sudden maturation since their last time on the track. In addition, more than than half the field is trying the turf for the first time; so there's no telling which ones may enjoy the lawn significantly more than they like the main track.
Finally, I'm not convinced that the aforementioned 8-5 Morning Line Favorite, Omaha Beach, is the most likely winner of this races. Yes, Omaha Beach is a fine runner, having finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts, both turf routes. But in each of those two races Omaha Beach failed as the Post Time Favorite; certainly something to give one pause before making him a big ticket single. So while I didn't punch the "ALL" button, I am using most of the field on the big ticket here, with the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Edwards Going Left (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Touching Rainbows (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Tough But Nice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Solid Wager (ML 4-1)
# 5 Brandothebartender (ML 20-1)
# 6 Minoso (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shades of Victory (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grecian Fire (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 5-1)
Shades of Victory was actually a neck better than Edwards Going Left the last time they paired off. But I'm using Edwards Going Left on the big ticket and not Touching Rainbows because I think Edwards Going Left benefits more from having one less turn to negotiate. Touching Rainbows has been working well and seems well meant here. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Push Through (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Cool Your Jets (ML 3-1)
# 8 Ostini (ML 8-1)
# 10 Captain Buzzkill (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Bouncing Around (ML 8-1)
# 4 Reckless Gravity (ML 15-1)
# 5 Single Me Out (ML 8-1)
# 6 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Hit the Seam (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 According to Buddy (ML 12-1)
Push Through has finished in the Trifecta at this class level on the turf in each of his last four races; three of those times disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Push Through just may be a money eater; but it's hard to pick against him as a top choice, as once again Push Through looks best in the field.
Cool Your Jets took the Show at this class level last time out while charging down the Santa Anita hill. Ostini and Captain Buzzkill filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,8 with 2,4,7,8,10 with 2,3 with 3,7,8,10 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5,6,9 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 1,4,5,6,9 $2.50
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Nero (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Cool Bobby (ML 7-2)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Goren (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 The Rule of King's (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Cobra (ML 5-1)
# 4 Denman's Call (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Allaboutaction (ML 5-1)
The Bob Baffert trained Nero has the capability in this contest to make me look very foolish for not making him a big ticket single. Nero has run well in each of his three career races, including last time out in the Grade 2 San Vicente, back in February. For his return off the extended vacation Nero is flashing the Baffert Bullets in his workouts, showing that he's ready to roll.
So what are the concerns with Nero? Well, while Nero ran well in each of his prior races, he didn't run all that well. In addition, this will be Nero's first try against older runners. So, while it may prove to be a foolish move on my part, I'm going to spread a bit in this leg.
Cool Bobby, another three year old making his first try against older, could improve with the return to one turn racing. Best Two Minutes, now trained by Steve Knapp, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Goren looked impressive in his graduation last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Bob and Jackie (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 All Out (ML 20-1)
# 7 Omaha Beach (ML 8-5)
# 8 Noble Nebraskan (ML 3-1)
# 10 Instanbul (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shining Through (ML 20-1)
# 5 Macwinnon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Dinesen (ML 8-1)
# 9 Loomis (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Afleeting Life (ML 20-1)
Using five runners in a leg where the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 8-5 means that this is another leg where I could wind up looking very foolish. But these are juveniles, with all the risks involved with trying to guess which ones may have experienced a sudden maturation since their last time on the track. In addition, more than than half the field is trying the turf for the first time; so there's no telling which ones may enjoy the lawn significantly more than they like the main track.
Finally, I'm not convinced that the aforementioned 8-5 Morning Line Favorite, Omaha Beach, is the most likely winner of this races. Yes, Omaha Beach is a fine runner, having finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts, both turf routes. But in each of those two races Omaha Beach failed as the Post Time Favorite; certainly something to give one pause before making him a big ticket single. So while I didn't punch the "ALL" button, I am using most of the field on the big ticket here, with the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Edwards Going Left (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Touching Rainbows (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Tough But Nice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Solid Wager (ML 4-1)
# 5 Brandothebartender (ML 20-1)
# 6 Minoso (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shades of Victory (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grecian Fire (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 5-1)
Shades of Victory was actually a neck better than Edwards Going Left the last time they paired off. But I'm using Edwards Going Left on the big ticket and not Touching Rainbows because I think Edwards Going Left benefits more from having one less turn to negotiate. Touching Rainbows has been working well and seems well meant here. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Push Through (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Cool Your Jets (ML 3-1)
# 8 Ostini (ML 8-1)
# 10 Captain Buzzkill (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Bouncing Around (ML 8-1)
# 4 Reckless Gravity (ML 15-1)
# 5 Single Me Out (ML 8-1)
# 6 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Hit the Seam (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 According to Buddy (ML 12-1)
Push Through has finished in the Trifecta at this class level on the turf in each of his last four races; three of those times disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Push Through just may be a money eater; but it's hard to pick against him as a top choice, as once again Push Through looks best in the field.
Cool Your Jets took the Show at this class level last time out while charging down the Santa Anita hill. Ostini and Captain Buzzkill filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,8 with 2,4,7,8,10 with 2,3 with 3,7,8,10 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5,6,9 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 1,4,5,6,9 $2.50
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 17, 2018
11/17/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Jump the Tracks (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Absolutely Perfect (7.50) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 3 Mucho Gusto (0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Baby Bear's Soup (3.10) - "B" Selection
Trainer Bob Baffert showed off a pair of impressive juvenile runners Saturday: the debuting Coliseum (0.50*) in the curtain jerker at Del Mar, and second time starter Mucho Gusto, winner of the Grade 3 Bob Hope, as shown above. And, of course, Baffert still has Game Winner, winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile earlier this month. So it's not even Thanksgiving, and yet Baffert is already loaded for bear regarding the 2019 Triple Crown events.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Matriculate (4.00) - $105.50 Finish: 5th
# 3 Vending Machine (3.30) - $91.05 Finish: 6th
# 5 Go Ghetto (5.00) - $122.05 Finish: 2nd
# 6 Louden's Gray (4.10) - $107.05 Finish: 4th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 7 / 3 / 8 which paid $114.85 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $44.35 on my initial $70.50 investment, or approximate odds of 0.63-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/17/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
"I have seen what a laugh can do. It can transform almost unbearable tears into something bearable, even hopeful." - Bob Hope
Saturday's featured race is the Grade 3 Bob Hope, an event formerly known as the Hollywood Prevue back when it was run at a racetrack that no longer exists. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Jump the Tracks (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Vintage Hollywood (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 June Two Four (ML 6-1)
# 2 From the Distance (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tap Tap Boom (ML 12-1)
# 5 Spirit World (ML 30-1)
# 7 Whoa Buddy (ML 5-1)
# 8 Livin On Prayer (ML 6-1)
# 9 Gryffindor (ML 6-1)
Jump the Tracks missed the winner's circle by just a neck last time out at this class level. Vintage Hollywood returns to more favorable conditions after attempting to route on the turf against classier competition. This could be the most formful leg of the sequence; if so, the above two in a Quinella looks solid; but don't expect it to pay much. But just in case, the backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Paprika (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Weather Market (ML 6-1)
# 7 Absolutely Perfect (ML 9-2)
# 9 Lovely Finish (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Radish (ML 4-1)
# 2 Into Rissa (ML 6-1)
# 3 Spectacular Storm (ML 20-1)
# 4 Just Kathy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Miss Voluptuous (ML 8-1)
Paprika has trice taken the Place while charging down the Santa Anita hill. If Paprika can bring that form to the Del Mar flats, then she should win today.
Weather Market closed well at today's distance last time out. Absolutely Perfect could improve on her debut effort with the change in distance and surface. Lovely Finish's breeding suggests that she'll do well with the move to the lawn. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Sparky Ville (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Mucho Gusto (ML 5-2)
# 4 Savagery (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Extra Hope (ML 7-2)
# 5 Owning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Metropol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Sueno (ML 15-1)
Sparky Ville is the only runner in this field of juveniles to have defeated winners. The Bob Baffert trained Mucho Gusto had no trouble getting to the wire well in front of a next out winner last time out. Savagery took the Place behind Sparky Ville last time out, and could move up with the return to Del Mar. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Matriculate (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Vending Machine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Go Ghetto (ML 4-1)
# 6 Louden's Gray (ML 4-1)
# 8 Baby Bear's Soup (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pick One (ML 20-1)
# 4 Finallygotabentley (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lion Command (ML 20-1)
# 9 Many Treats (ML 30-1)
# 10 Air Pocket (ML 20-1)
Matriculate fits well at this level, though the almost half year layoff after a voided claim is a concern. Vending Machine is a lifetime two-for-six on a Fast dirt track, and Vending Machine is getting some significant class relief here.
Go Ghetto has run well in the past over this main track. Louden's Gray took the Place at this class level last time out. Baby Bear's Soup could improve going second off the layoff.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 6,7,8,9 with 3,4,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,9 with 8 with 6 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 2,5 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 2,4,7,9,10 $2.50
Total: $70.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday's featured race is the Grade 3 Bob Hope, an event formerly known as the Hollywood Prevue back when it was run at a racetrack that no longer exists. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Jump the Tracks (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Vintage Hollywood (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 June Two Four (ML 6-1)
# 2 From the Distance (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tap Tap Boom (ML 12-1)
# 5 Spirit World (ML 30-1)
# 7 Whoa Buddy (ML 5-1)
# 8 Livin On Prayer (ML 6-1)
# 9 Gryffindor (ML 6-1)
Jump the Tracks missed the winner's circle by just a neck last time out at this class level. Vintage Hollywood returns to more favorable conditions after attempting to route on the turf against classier competition. This could be the most formful leg of the sequence; if so, the above two in a Quinella looks solid; but don't expect it to pay much. But just in case, the backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Paprika (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Weather Market (ML 6-1)
# 7 Absolutely Perfect (ML 9-2)
# 9 Lovely Finish (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Radish (ML 4-1)
# 2 Into Rissa (ML 6-1)
# 3 Spectacular Storm (ML 20-1)
# 4 Just Kathy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Miss Voluptuous (ML 8-1)
Paprika has trice taken the Place while charging down the Santa Anita hill. If Paprika can bring that form to the Del Mar flats, then she should win today.
Weather Market closed well at today's distance last time out. Absolutely Perfect could improve on her debut effort with the change in distance and surface. Lovely Finish's breeding suggests that she'll do well with the move to the lawn. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Sparky Ville (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Mucho Gusto (ML 5-2)
# 4 Savagery (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Extra Hope (ML 7-2)
# 5 Owning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Metropol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Sueno (ML 15-1)
Sparky Ville is the only runner in this field of juveniles to have defeated winners. The Bob Baffert trained Mucho Gusto had no trouble getting to the wire well in front of a next out winner last time out. Savagery took the Place behind Sparky Ville last time out, and could move up with the return to Del Mar. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Matriculate (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Vending Machine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Go Ghetto (ML 4-1)
# 6 Louden's Gray (ML 4-1)
# 8 Baby Bear's Soup (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pick One (ML 20-1)
# 4 Finallygotabentley (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lion Command (ML 20-1)
# 9 Many Treats (ML 30-1)
# 10 Air Pocket (ML 20-1)
Matriculate fits well at this level, though the almost half year layoff after a voided claim is a concern. Vending Machine is a lifetime two-for-six on a Fast dirt track, and Vending Machine is getting some significant class relief here.
Go Ghetto has run well in the past over this main track. Louden's Gray took the Place at this class level last time out. Baby Bear's Soup could improve going second off the layoff.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 6,7,8,9 with 3,4,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,9 with 8 with 6 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 2,5 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 2,4,7,9,10 $2.50
Total: $70.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 11, 2018
11/11/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Fast Cotton (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Souter (GB) (5.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 4 Spiced Perfection (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Gypsy Blu (30.80) - "C" Selection
The play started off well enough, as I was holding a pair of Aces at halftime; and it nearly finished well enough, as Operandi was just a neck too slow in getting under the wire. Perhaps a case can be made that I should have given stronger consideration to Spiced Perfection in the featured eighth race; but there was no way, just no way, that I was finding Gypsy Blue in the nightcap without punching the "ALL" button.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here's the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Operandi (1.10*) - $65.25 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 8 / 4 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $1,249.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/11/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
“The soldier above all others prays for peace, for it is the soldier who must suffer and bear the deepest wounds and scars of war.” – Douglas MacArthur
A heartfelt "Thank You!" to all who have served the cause of freedom, both those who are still with us and those who have passed on, as we celebrate this Veterans Day / Remembrance Day / Armistice Day. As part of that celebration of freedom, we turn to those activities which we are free to enjoy; among them being Sunday's card at Del Mar. But before doing so, allow me to note here that, while there will be holiday racing on Monday, other obligations will preclude me from posting my thoughts on that card's sequence. So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Fast Cotton (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Optimum (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sought Bai (ML 15-1)
# 7 Harley's Place (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fleetwood (ML 15-1)
# 2 Irish Ballad (ML 10-1)
# 3 Dude's Dude (ML 20-1)
# 8 Mikeys Glory (ML 10-1)
# 10 Grand Minister (ML 5-1)
# 11 The Bull Mousse (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 9 Rounding for Home (ML 15-1)
Fast Cotton took the Place at this class level two starts back, and could rebound back to that effort going third off the layoff. Optimum took the Place at this class level last time out, and is the only runner in this field to have finished in the Trifecta last time out.
Sought Bai ran one of the best races of his career in his only prior start on a real dirt track. Harley's Place showed good early speed upstate against non-claiming maidens in his debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Souter (GB) (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Worthy Turk (ML 3-1)
# 6 East Rand (ML 6-1)
# 9 It's Tiz Time (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Gray Admiral (ML 15-1)
# 3 Snazzy Dresser (ML 6-1)
# 5 Hot American (ML 7-2)
# 7 Ayacara (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Souter (GB), Worthy Turk, and East Rand all disappointed (in separate contests) last time out as the Post Time Favorite while running well enough where they could win at this level today. It's Tiz Time is trying the turf for the first time, and his breeding suggests that It's Tiz Time will do well on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Show It N Moe It (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Love a Honeybadger (ML 5-1)
# 3 Just Grazed Me (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Spiced Perfection (ML 3-1)
# 6 Meet and Greet (ML 12-1)
# 7 One Fast Broad (ML 8-1)
# 8 S Y Sky (ML 5-1)
# 9 Gorgeous Ginny (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Mo See Cal (ML 12-1)
Show It N Moe It could move up with the class drop. Love a Honeybadger projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Just Grazed Me could improve with the return to one turn racing. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Operandi (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Bako Sweets (ML 7-2)
# 4 Coco Kisses (ML 8-1)
# 7 Herunbridledpower (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Shylock Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 5 Gypsy Blue (ML 15-1)
# 6 Don't Pass (ML 20-1)
# 8 Great Ma Neri (ML 12-1)
# 9 Judicial (ML 6-1)
# 10 Charming Slew (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Discatsonthesquare (ML 4-1) and # 12 Powder (ML 3-1)
Operandi looks best here; but the rail draw is a bit of a concern, as Operandi may not be quick enough early to make the inside post an advantage rather than a disadvantage. Bako Sweets seems to run well regardless of surface.
Coco Kisses graduated last time out, and could win today with a repeat of that effort. Herunbridledpower appears to be in top form.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 4,6,8,9 with 2,3,5 with 1,2,4,7 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8,10,11 with 8 with 5 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,5,7 with 5 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 4,6,7,8,9 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 5 with 3,5,6,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $107.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
A heartfelt "Thank You!" to all who have served the cause of freedom, both those who are still with us and those who have passed on, as we celebrate this Veterans Day / Remembrance Day / Armistice Day. As part of that celebration of freedom, we turn to those activities which we are free to enjoy; among them being Sunday's card at Del Mar. But before doing so, allow me to note here that, while there will be holiday racing on Monday, other obligations will preclude me from posting my thoughts on that card's sequence. So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Fast Cotton (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Optimum (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sought Bai (ML 15-1)
# 7 Harley's Place (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fleetwood (ML 15-1)
# 2 Irish Ballad (ML 10-1)
# 3 Dude's Dude (ML 20-1)
# 8 Mikeys Glory (ML 10-1)
# 10 Grand Minister (ML 5-1)
# 11 The Bull Mousse (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 9 Rounding for Home (ML 15-1)
Fast Cotton took the Place at this class level two starts back, and could rebound back to that effort going third off the layoff. Optimum took the Place at this class level last time out, and is the only runner in this field to have finished in the Trifecta last time out.
Sought Bai ran one of the best races of his career in his only prior start on a real dirt track. Harley's Place showed good early speed upstate against non-claiming maidens in his debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Souter (GB) (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Worthy Turk (ML 3-1)
# 6 East Rand (ML 6-1)
# 9 It's Tiz Time (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Gray Admiral (ML 15-1)
# 3 Snazzy Dresser (ML 6-1)
# 5 Hot American (ML 7-2)
# 7 Ayacara (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Souter (GB), Worthy Turk, and East Rand all disappointed (in separate contests) last time out as the Post Time Favorite while running well enough where they could win at this level today. It's Tiz Time is trying the turf for the first time, and his breeding suggests that It's Tiz Time will do well on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Show It N Moe It (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Love a Honeybadger (ML 5-1)
# 3 Just Grazed Me (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Spiced Perfection (ML 3-1)
# 6 Meet and Greet (ML 12-1)
# 7 One Fast Broad (ML 8-1)
# 8 S Y Sky (ML 5-1)
# 9 Gorgeous Ginny (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Mo See Cal (ML 12-1)
Show It N Moe It could move up with the class drop. Love a Honeybadger projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Just Grazed Me could improve with the return to one turn racing. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Operandi (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Bako Sweets (ML 7-2)
# 4 Coco Kisses (ML 8-1)
# 7 Herunbridledpower (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Shylock Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 5 Gypsy Blue (ML 15-1)
# 6 Don't Pass (ML 20-1)
# 8 Great Ma Neri (ML 12-1)
# 9 Judicial (ML 6-1)
# 10 Charming Slew (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Discatsonthesquare (ML 4-1) and # 12 Powder (ML 3-1)
Operandi looks best here; but the rail draw is a bit of a concern, as Operandi may not be quick enough early to make the inside post an advantage rather than a disadvantage. Bako Sweets seems to run well regardless of surface.
Coco Kisses graduated last time out, and could win today with a repeat of that effort. Herunbridledpower appears to be in top form.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 4,6,8,9 with 2,3,5 with 1,2,4,7 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8,10,11 with 8 with 5 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,5,7 with 5 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 4,6,7,8,9 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 5 with 3,5,6,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $107.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 10, 2018
11/10/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Carrie's Success (Final Odds 1.60*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Let It Ride - # 4 Risky Proposition (22.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Shivermetimbers (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Tapwater (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Perhaps the best evidence that I didn't have a good handle on Saturday's sequence is the fact that the two legs in which I suggested spreading widest (the first and last) both saw the Post Time Favorite cross under the wire first. Meanwhile, if you had taken the three runners that I left off the big ticket in the second leg (Risky Proposition; # 3 Choo Choo (14.00); and # 7 Calexman (5.10)) and boxed them in a fifty cent Trifecta, you were rewarded with a payout of $562.85. Overall, it was simply a day to shrug your shoulders and say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 4 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $412.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Let It Ride - # 4 Risky Proposition (22.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Shivermetimbers (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Tapwater (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Perhaps the best evidence that I didn't have a good handle on Saturday's sequence is the fact that the two legs in which I suggested spreading widest (the first and last) both saw the Post Time Favorite cross under the wire first. Meanwhile, if you had taken the three runners that I left off the big ticket in the second leg (Risky Proposition; # 3 Choo Choo (14.00); and # 7 Calexman (5.10)) and boxed them in a fifty cent Trifecta, you were rewarded with a payout of $562.85. Overall, it was simply a day to shrug your shoulders and say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 4 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $412.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/10/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Fun Fact: All three Southern California thoroughbred race tracks (Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos) have a Fall Meeting. This is opening weekend for the Del Mar session, which is slated to run through Sunday, December 2. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lucky Val (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 6 Majestic Authority (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Dressed in Prada (ML 8-1)
# 2 Sea Glass (ML 6-1)
# 3 Greater Glory (ML 20-1)
# 4 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 6-1)
# 5 Carrie's Success (ML 3-1)
# 8 Jabber Now (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cee Sam's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wicked Sunset (ML 20-1)
My better judgement says that I should spread wide in this leg. But my better judgement also says that I should spread wide in the final leg; and my budget says I can't spread wide in both. So here I'm going with just two, and hoping for the best.
Lucky Val showed good early speed last time out over this main track, and Lucky Val should appreciate the significant class relief that she is getting here. Majestic Authority missed victory by less than a length two starts back at this class level while taking the Show. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - [R] The Let It Ride $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Afleet Ascent (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Prince Earl (ML 5-2)
# 5 Extrordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Fight On (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Choo Choo (ML 5-1)
# 4 Risky Proposition (ML 10-1)
# 7 Calexman (ML 7-2)
The restriction for entry into this event is that a runner could not have been a winner of a stakes of $60k or over. excepting state bred, at a mile or longer since April 1.
Afleet Ascent has finished in the Exacta in each of his last three starts. Prince Earl, scratched by Trainer Phil D'Amato out of last week's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita, has done nothing wrong in either of his two career starts.
Fight On and Extraordinary Jerry filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta in a first level Optional Claiming contest last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shivermetimbers (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Curlin Road (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Mongolian Groom (ML 20-1)
# 3 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 4 Pepe Tono (ML 6-1)
# 6 Engram (ML 20-1)
# 7 Captain Scotty (ML 3-1)
I wrote the description above as it is in my Past Performances, but when you break it down this is just an OC $62.5k/N2X. Note for the record that Curlin Road, Ike Walker, and Engram are the three that are in for a tag.
Shivermetimbers took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, over six lengths in front of Show finisher Pepe Tono. Curlin Road could move up with the drop in class and the reduction in real estate. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Encanta (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Out of Balance (ML 5-1)
# 3 Giza Goddess (ML 15-1)
# 6 Bizwhacks (ML 4-1)
# 10 Tapwater (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Ask the Customer (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reachreachreach (ML 20-1)
# 5 Samandah (ML 20-1)
# 7 Landon (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hyde Park Corner (Ire) (ML 15-1)
Encanta missed victory be a neck charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out. Out of Balance took the Place at this class level charging down the hill last time out. Giza Goddess could improve with the move to the turf.
Bizwhacks took the Show in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf last time out. Tapwater took the Place sprinting on the main track in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,9,10 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 with 1 with 5 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,7 with 5 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lucky Val (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 6 Majestic Authority (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Dressed in Prada (ML 8-1)
# 2 Sea Glass (ML 6-1)
# 3 Greater Glory (ML 20-1)
# 4 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 6-1)
# 5 Carrie's Success (ML 3-1)
# 8 Jabber Now (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cee Sam's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wicked Sunset (ML 20-1)
My better judgement says that I should spread wide in this leg. But my better judgement also says that I should spread wide in the final leg; and my budget says I can't spread wide in both. So here I'm going with just two, and hoping for the best.
Lucky Val showed good early speed last time out over this main track, and Lucky Val should appreciate the significant class relief that she is getting here. Majestic Authority missed victory by less than a length two starts back at this class level while taking the Show. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - [R] The Let It Ride $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Afleet Ascent (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Prince Earl (ML 5-2)
# 5 Extrordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Fight On (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Choo Choo (ML 5-1)
# 4 Risky Proposition (ML 10-1)
# 7 Calexman (ML 7-2)
The restriction for entry into this event is that a runner could not have been a winner of a stakes of $60k or over. excepting state bred, at a mile or longer since April 1.
Afleet Ascent has finished in the Exacta in each of his last three starts. Prince Earl, scratched by Trainer Phil D'Amato out of last week's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita, has done nothing wrong in either of his two career starts.
Fight On and Extraordinary Jerry filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta in a first level Optional Claiming contest last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shivermetimbers (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Curlin Road (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Mongolian Groom (ML 20-1)
# 3 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 4 Pepe Tono (ML 6-1)
# 6 Engram (ML 20-1)
# 7 Captain Scotty (ML 3-1)
I wrote the description above as it is in my Past Performances, but when you break it down this is just an OC $62.5k/N2X. Note for the record that Curlin Road, Ike Walker, and Engram are the three that are in for a tag.
Shivermetimbers took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, over six lengths in front of Show finisher Pepe Tono. Curlin Road could move up with the drop in class and the reduction in real estate. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Encanta (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Out of Balance (ML 5-1)
# 3 Giza Goddess (ML 15-1)
# 6 Bizwhacks (ML 4-1)
# 10 Tapwater (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Ask the Customer (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reachreachreach (ML 20-1)
# 5 Samandah (ML 20-1)
# 7 Landon (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hyde Park Corner (Ire) (ML 15-1)
Encanta missed victory be a neck charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out. Out of Balance took the Place at this class level charging down the hill last time out. Giza Goddess could improve with the move to the turf.
Bizwhacks took the Show in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf last time out. Tapwater took the Place sprinting on the main track in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,9,10 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 with 1 with 5 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,7 with 5 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 4, 2018
11/4/18 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview
Sunday is closing day for the Fall Meet at Santa Anita, which means that it's mandatory payout day for all pools; and that includes the jackpot Rainbow Pick Six. As there is a carryover in that pool of over a million dollars, I would venture to say that the experiment with this wager was a success, and that we will be seeing it again in the upcoming Winter-Spring Meet. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 5 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mayan Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Irish Polo (ML 6-1)
# 2 Runningwscissors (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 5 Take Charge Lucky (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mo Dinero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Violent Behavior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Empirical Data (ML 30-1)
# 10 S On My Chest (ML 20-1)
# 11 Diamond Blitz (ML 4-1)
# 12 Mr Bingley (ML 20-1)
# 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Forestation (ML 20-1) and # 13 Calder Vale (ML 6-1). Bring in # 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Big decision right off the bat: Do I single in the opening leg? Mayan Warrior really towers over this field on paper. However, much could have been said about Mayan Warrior last time out, when he failed by a half dozen lengths as the Post Time Favorite. If that happens again today, then this could be a very short play for me; but it won't be a first round knockout, as all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Perfectly Majestic (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Tiz a Billy (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Placido (ML 6-1)
# 4 K Thirty Eight (ML 20-1)
# 5 Hitters Park (ML 8-1)
# 6 Jan's Reserve (ML 20-1)
# 7 Lauren's Ladd (ML 8-1)
# 8 Allaboutmike (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Man Chuckles (ML 6-1)
# 10 Castle (ML 8-1)
I was very tempted to single here, as I believe that Perfectly Majestic should totally out-class this field. But the concern with Perfectly Majestic is he seems to settle for too many minor awards. Yes, a large part of that is because of the caliber of competition; but when you have to go back more than a year in order to find a runner's last visit to the winner's circle, then perhaps that runner shouldn't be a big ticket single. So onto the big ticket goes Tiz a Billy, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 For the Hustle (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Powerful Thirst (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Salutelute (ML 12-1)
# 3 Braggart (ML 20-1)
# 4 Silver Badge (ML 30-1)
# 5 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
# 7 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pastorelli (ML 4-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 6-1)
# 10 Supreme Giant (ML 30-1)
# 12 War Link (ML 20-1)
# 13 Castle View (ML 50-1)
# 14 Conversate (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Flynn (ML 10-1)
For the Hustle has finished in the Trifecta each of the last three times that he has competed at this class level. Powerful Thirst took the Show at this class level last time out; and while it may seem that Powerful Thirst has used up all his chances, the routes in his Past Performances can be crossed out, as there was no way Powerful Thirst was going around two turns. The backup "C" Selections are all others.
RACE 8 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Have At It (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Kazan (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 5 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mayan Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Irish Polo (ML 6-1)
# 2 Runningwscissors (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 5 Take Charge Lucky (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mo Dinero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Violent Behavior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Empirical Data (ML 30-1)
# 10 S On My Chest (ML 20-1)
# 11 Diamond Blitz (ML 4-1)
# 12 Mr Bingley (ML 20-1)
# 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Forestation (ML 20-1) and # 13 Calder Vale (ML 6-1). Bring in # 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Big decision right off the bat: Do I single in the opening leg? Mayan Warrior really towers over this field on paper. However, much could have been said about Mayan Warrior last time out, when he failed by a half dozen lengths as the Post Time Favorite. If that happens again today, then this could be a very short play for me; but it won't be a first round knockout, as all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Perfectly Majestic (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Tiz a Billy (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Placido (ML 6-1)
# 4 K Thirty Eight (ML 20-1)
# 5 Hitters Park (ML 8-1)
# 6 Jan's Reserve (ML 20-1)
# 7 Lauren's Ladd (ML 8-1)
# 8 Allaboutmike (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Man Chuckles (ML 6-1)
# 10 Castle (ML 8-1)
I was very tempted to single here, as I believe that Perfectly Majestic should totally out-class this field. But the concern with Perfectly Majestic is he seems to settle for too many minor awards. Yes, a large part of that is because of the caliber of competition; but when you have to go back more than a year in order to find a runner's last visit to the winner's circle, then perhaps that runner shouldn't be a big ticket single. So onto the big ticket goes Tiz a Billy, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 For the Hustle (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Powerful Thirst (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Salutelute (ML 12-1)
# 3 Braggart (ML 20-1)
# 4 Silver Badge (ML 30-1)
# 5 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
# 7 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pastorelli (ML 4-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 6-1)
# 10 Supreme Giant (ML 30-1)
# 12 War Link (ML 20-1)
# 13 Castle View (ML 50-1)
# 14 Conversate (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Flynn (ML 10-1)
For the Hustle has finished in the Trifecta each of the last three times that he has competed at this class level. Powerful Thirst took the Show at this class level last time out; and while it may seem that Powerful Thirst has used up all his chances, the routes in his Past Performances can be crossed out, as there was no way Powerful Thirst was going around two turns. The backup "C" Selections are all others.
RACE 8 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Have At It (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Kazan (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Majestic Eagle (ML 8-1)
# 5 Pubilius Syrus (ML 15-1)
# 5 Pubilius Syrus (ML 15-1)
# 6 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Epical (ML 20-1)
# 7 Epical (ML 20-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Andesh (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Andesh (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Prince Earl (ML 6-1)
Have At It ships in from the east, and if he runs as he did last time out while winning the Grade 2 Hill Prince, then this race will be a no contest. Kazan (Ire) and River Boyne (Ire) filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby last time out. Everyone else is being used as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Kylemore (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Lord Guinness (ML 4-1)
# 3 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 4 Pleasant d'Oro (ML 6-1)
# 6 Surfing Star (ML 7-2)
# 7 Paddock Pick (ML 8-1)
# 10 Longden (ML 6-1)
# 10 Longden (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Violent Ridge (ML 15-1)
# 5 Secret Touch (ML 15-1)
# 9 Major Cabbie (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Arch Prince (ML 12-1) and # 12 Ferguson (ML 12-1)
If you've got the budget, don't mess with this leg; just punch the "ALL" button. I relegated three in the field to backup "C" Selection status; but this one in my opinion is wide open, and you're better off (if you've got the bankroll) just going "ALL" in and moving on.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Neptune's Storm (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Weekly Call (ML 6-1)
# 4 Farquhar (ML 5-1)
# 9 Knight's Cross (ML 8-1)
# 10 Northwestern (ML 6-1)
# 13 Felix Leiter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Union Station (ML 20-1)
# 5 Speakerofthehouse (ML 8-1)
# 6 Dyf (ML 8-1)
# 8 Leader of Men (ML 10-1)
# 8 Leader of Men (ML 10-1)
# 11 Zorich (ML 12-1)
# 12 Red Valor (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Salah (ML 12-1); bring in the Also Eligible, # 13 Felix Leiter (ML 6-1)
Neptune's Storm tries two turns for the second time; runners for Trainer Billy Morey tend to improve when doing such. Weekly Call took the Place at this approximate class level last time out. Farquhar could improve with the change in barn.
Knight's Cross deserves another chance with the hood in place. Northwestern and Felix Leiter are two debut runners that should do well on the turf. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 3 with 1,3 with 6,11 with 1,4,8 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,10 with 2,3,4,9,10,13 $100.80
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,14 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $2.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,12,13,14 with 1 with 8 with 2 $2.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 3,5,6,7,9,10 with 8 with 2 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 1,5,9 with 2 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 1,5,6,8,11,12 $1.20
Total: $110.80
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:20 EST / 1:20 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 3, 2018
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The BC Mile - # 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Final Odds 5.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 11 Monomoy Girl (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 2 Enable (GB) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 14 Accelerate (2.70*) - "B" Selection
Both Monomy Girl and Enable (GB) made me look foolish while winning, as either or both of them really should have been big ticket singles. And as it turned out, the combination of using all non-big ticket runners as backup "C" Selections in the final leg meant that I could have singled anybody in that race as well, and still have collected while spending much less on my play. But all that is just twenty-twenty hindsight voicing its observations; as the bottom line is the bottom line, and despite the mistakes I still cash instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other thirteen runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (14.50) - $375.90 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Roaring Lion (19.70) - $513.35 Finish: 14th
# 3 Catholic Boy (5.10) - $170.85 Finish: 13th
# 4 Gunnevera (30.80) - $943.95 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Lone Sailor (90.90) - $4,948.10 Finish: 6th
# 6 McKinzie (3.90) - $126.80 Finish: 12th
# 7 West Coast (6.60) - $177.65 Finish: 7th
# 8 Pavel (39.70) - $1,341.35 Finish: 10th
# 9 Mendelssohn (13.30) - $494.65 Finish: 5th
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (14.50) - $375.25 Finish: 4th
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (9.10) - $257.90 Finish: 11th
# 12 Axelrod (51.70) - $1,143.00 Finish: 9th
# 13 Discreet Lover (53.30) - $2,588.60 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 11 / 2 / 14 which paid $157.95 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $38.95 on my initial $119.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.33-1. Which may not be much; but believe me, it sure beats not cashing at all.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 11 Monomoy Girl (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 2 Enable (GB) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 14 Accelerate (2.70*) - "B" Selection
Both Monomy Girl and Enable (GB) made me look foolish while winning, as either or both of them really should have been big ticket singles. And as it turned out, the combination of using all non-big ticket runners as backup "C" Selections in the final leg meant that I could have singled anybody in that race as well, and still have collected while spending much less on my play. But all that is just twenty-twenty hindsight voicing its observations; as the bottom line is the bottom line, and despite the mistakes I still cash instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other thirteen runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (14.50) - $375.90 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Roaring Lion (19.70) - $513.35 Finish: 14th
# 3 Catholic Boy (5.10) - $170.85 Finish: 13th
# 4 Gunnevera (30.80) - $943.95 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Lone Sailor (90.90) - $4,948.10 Finish: 6th
# 6 McKinzie (3.90) - $126.80 Finish: 12th
# 7 West Coast (6.60) - $177.65 Finish: 7th
# 8 Pavel (39.70) - $1,341.35 Finish: 10th
# 9 Mendelssohn (13.30) - $494.65 Finish: 5th
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (14.50) - $375.25 Finish: 4th
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (9.10) - $257.90 Finish: 11th
# 12 Axelrod (51.70) - $1,143.00 Finish: 9th
# 13 Discreet Lover (53.30) - $2,588.60 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 11 / 2 / 14 which paid $157.95 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $38.95 on my initial $119.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.33-1. Which may not be much; but believe me, it sure beats not cashing at all.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Results
Race 4 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 9 Stormy Liberal (Final Odds 7.00) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - The BC Dirt Mile - # 1 City of Light (2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Roy H (2.70) - "B" Selection
Stormy Liberal's victory in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was close enough that it'll be awhile before I can complain about losing a photo again. Also, for those who wonder, this is why I prefer to play the Crist method in a modified fashion; because without combining all my "A" Selections with all my "B" Selections, I would have contributed instead of cashed.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Whitmore (6.80) - $657.80 Finish: 2nd
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (4.60) - $545.95 Finish: 4th
# 5 Imperial Hint (1.60*) - $226.15 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Limousine Liberal (4.80) - $519.70 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 6 / 9 which paid $253.25 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.25 on my initial $133.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.90-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Roy H (2.70) - "B" Selection
Stormy Liberal's victory in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was close enough that it'll be awhile before I can complain about losing a photo again. Also, for those who wonder, this is why I prefer to play the Crist method in a modified fashion; because without combining all my "A" Selections with all my "B" Selections, I would have contributed instead of cashed.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Whitmore (6.80) - $657.80 Finish: 2nd
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (4.60) - $545.95 Finish: 4th
# 5 Imperial Hint (1.60*) - $226.15 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Limousine Liberal (4.80) - $519.70 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 6 / 9 which paid $253.25 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.25 on my initial $133.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.90-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Preview
Just to be clear, this is the Pick Four that culminates with The Breeders' Cup Classic, Race 11 on Saturday's program. So with that settled let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1) Bring in the Also Eligibles.
Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg. I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook. For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one. But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.
I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start. Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)
B's
# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out. But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having. And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)
No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices. As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring. Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50
Total: $119.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1) Bring in the Also Eligibles.
Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg. I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook. For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one. But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.
I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start. Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)
B's
# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out. But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having. And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)
No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices. As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring. Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50
Total: $119.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Preview
There are four, yes four, Pick Four plays being offered at Churchill Downs Saturday for Day 2 of the 2018 Breeders' Cup. This preview is for for the second of the four; the one beginning with Race 4, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Hopefully very soon I'll be posting a preview for the Pick 4 which culminates with the Breeders' Cup Classic. So if all is clear let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)
C's
RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Ruby Notion (ML 20-1)
# 2 Bucchero (ML 10-1)
# 3 Hembreee (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vision Perfect (ML 15-1)
# 6 Rainbow Heir (ML 12-1)
# 8 Chanteline (ML 15-1)
# 11 World of Trouble (ML 6-1)
# 12 Richard's Boy (ML 12-1)
# 13 Will Call (ML 20-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Insta Erma (ML 30-1)
Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar. Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California. Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class. Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.
Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar. Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California. Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class. Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.
RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Catalina Cruiser (ML 8-5)
B's
# 1 City of Light (ML 5-2)
# 6 Seeking the Soul (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Trigger Warning (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)
# 4 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)
# 9 Giant Expectations (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Awesome Slew (ML 15-1)
This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.
Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light. Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.
This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.
Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light. Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wild Illusion (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 10 Magic Wand (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 14 Eziyra (Ire) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Fourstar Crook (ML 5-1)
# 2 Thais (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)
# 9 Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 10-1)
Like the Turf Sprint above, this event will be a half furlong longer than it was when it was run last year at Del Mar.
Believe it or not, Sistercharlie (Ire), the Morning Line Favorite, was the one that I came closest to leaving off the big ticket. Sistercharlie has certainly done nothing wrong in her career; but I'm just not sure that she can handle this level of competition. As you can see, I ultimately decided to place her on the big ticket; we'll just have to wait and see if that was the right move. Note that this is the only leg of this sequence where the rest of the field is not being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Limousine Liberal (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Whitmore (ML 6-1)
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (ML 6-1)
# 5 Imperial Hint (ML 9-5)
# 9 Roy H (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 B Squared (ML 20-1)
# 4 Warrior's Club (ML 15-1)
# 6 Always Sunshine (ML 20-1)
# 7 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)
Limousine Liberal is a Lifetime six-for-eight over this main track, which is why he tops my selections for this contest. Had I been able to find a single in any one of the three prior events, I would be going "ALL" in for this leg. Instead, I settled for using everyone not on the big ticket as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,6,10 with 3,6,10,14 with 1,2,5,8,9 $120.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 8 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,4,7,8,9 with 3 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 1,2,4,9 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 3,4,6,7 $2.00
Total: $133.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 12:38 EDT / 9:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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