Just to be clear, this is the Pick Four that culminates with The Breeders' Cup Classic, Race 11 on Saturday's program. So with that settled let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1) Bring in the Also Eligibles.
Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg. I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook. For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one. But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.
I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start. Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)
B's
# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out. But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having. And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)
No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices. As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring. Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50
Total: $119.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment