It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series. So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN. These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.
As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories. So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse. Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 The Mackem Bullet (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 14 East (GB) (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Concrete Rose (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lily's Candle (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Just Wonderful (ML 4-1)
# 5 La Pelosa (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 11 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 12 Summering (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Pivottina (FR) (ML 30-1) and # 16 Winning Envelope (ML 30-1)
New for the Breeders' Cup this year is that all the juvenile contests have been grouped together into Day One of the event for what is being called Future Stars Friday. So the fact that all four of these races are comprised of two year old runners adds a large degree of, well I won't say chaos, but let's say chance, to the ultimate outcomes. Just something to keep in mind as these events unfold.
Newspaperofrecord (Ire) probably should be a single here; something that I could probably say regarding my top choice in most legs of this sequence. But, again, these are juveniles, so it seems prudent to spread at least a bit in each contest.
Newspaperofrecord's two career starts have both been in the US despite Newspaperofrecord being Irish bred. Conversely, Just Wonderful is Kentucky bred, though this will be Just Wonderful's first North American contest. Note that the large fields preclude using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections in each and every leg; so in this leg I'm just using those that I think might possibly upset the apple cart in the opening stanza.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Jaywalk (ML 7-2)
# 10 Bellafina (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Reflect (ML 15-1)
# 2 Serengeti Empress (ML 7-2)
# 3 Vibrance (ML 10-1)
# 4 Restless Rider (ML 9-2)
# 5 Cassies Dreamer (ML 30-1)
# 6 Baby Nina (ML 30-1)
# 8 Sippican Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 9 Splashy Kisses (ML 20-1)
It's East (Jaywalk) versus West (Bellafina); and which of the two you prefer in this contest probably reflects more upon what you think of the quality of horse racing on the two coasts rather than the specific merits of each of these two runners. But Jaywalk and Bellafina certainly appear to be standouts in this field, though I am using all the others as backup "C" Selections just in case.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 14 Anthony Van Dyck (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Uncle Benny (ML 15-1)
# 4 Forty Under (ML 5-1)
# 11 King of Speed (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Arthur Kitt (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Much Better (ML 10-1)
# 7 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 12-1)
# 13 Marie's Diamond (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Tracksmith (ML 30-1) and # 16 Order and Law (ML 30-1)
This is another contest where my top selection, Anthony Van Dyck, could work very well as a big ticket single. But these are juveniles, it's turf, so spreading seems prudent.
Uncle Benny should improve with the stretch out. Forty Under has won on both firm and soft going. King of Speed may raise his game to match the level of competition. The backup "C" Selections are those I view as the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Game Winner (ML 8-5)
B's
# 5 Well Defined (ML 20-1)
# 6 Complexity (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Tight Ten (ML 30-1)
# 7 Mind Control (ML 20-1)
# 10 Knicks Go (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 11 Code of Honor (ML 5-1)
Another East (Complexity) versus West (Game Winner) battle; I wonder how much time the television announcers will devote to playing that angle up?
Well Defined probably doesn't belong on the big ticket, as Well Defined was a well beaten third in his only race against open company. But Well Defined's speed figures look good with both Beyer and Brisnet; and you have to presume that Mike Smith wouldn't be hopping on his back if he didn't think that Well Defined had at least a chance of winning. The best of the rest (in my humble opinion) comprise the backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 14 with 9 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,14 with 7,10 with 2,4,11,14 with 5,6,9 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,11,12 with 7,10 with 14 with 9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 14 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 1,3,7,13 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 14 with 4,7,10 $3.00
Total: $55.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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