Sunday, November 27, 2016

11/27/16 Gulfstream Park West Rainbow Six - Results

Race 5 - # 1 General McGooby (Final Odds 6.20) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 5 Bama Bound (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Who's That Chick (29.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Ceeky (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Moonwalker (8.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Perfectress (4.80) - "B" Selection

We had a very good day, if you ignore the results of the odd-numbered races.  But, unfortunately, those count too; and while our z-pattern of selections may bode well for future results, for the present time it means that today was a day for us to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of  1 / 5 / 2 / 2 / 4 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $27,000.76 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/27/16 Gulfstream Park West Rainbow Six - Preview

With significant rainfall forecast for Del Mar, I decided to switch things up a bit by shifting our focus from west coast to east.  Sunday is the final day of the Gulfstream Park West (nee Calder Race Course) meet, so everything must go; meaning all wagers are subject to mandatory payouts.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as we take a run at South Florida's Rainbow Pick Six.

RACE 5 - Md $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Chasing the Stars (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Arpinella (ML 4-1)
# 6 Lil' Charlie (ML 8-1)


C's

# 7 Il Nonno (10-1)
# 8 Gran Abarrio (ML 12-1)
# 10 Lord Ruler (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 A B G Mostro (ML 5-1)

Chasing the Stars too the Place at this class level over this turf course last time out.  Arpinella drops in for a tag for the first time.  Lil' Charlie could move up with a trip a little closer to the rail than last time out.

Il Nonno and Gran Abarrio are the ones that could be running best late.  Lord Ruler took the Show against slightly less expensive stock in his debut last time out.

RACE 6 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Bama Bound (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 8 Toh's Grey Cat (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Jaiden's Best (ML 6-1)

Bama Bound is typically the type of horse that I would single, having finished in the Exacta in each of his five races, the last two being at today's class level.  The problem is that all those top two finishes came for different connections; this will be Bama Bound's first start for a trainer who visits the Winner's Circle a lot less frequently than the one that Bama Bound just left.  So for that reason, we'll be using others in our play.

Toh's Grey Cat won at this class level back in September, and then disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his next three starts with today's price tag on his head.  Jaiden's Best won at today's class level two starts back, albeit for different connections.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Rara (ML 4-1)
# 6 Cowboy's Princess (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Little Twitch (ML 5-1)
# 7 Desert Bliss (ML 10-1)

Cowboy's Princess and Rara finished one-two last time out at this class level, separated by just a nose at the wire.  Little Twitch has finished in the Trifecta in six of her last seven races.  Desert Bliss took the Show against more expensive stock the last time that she competed on the grass.

RACE 8 - Md $12.5k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Ceeky (ML 3-1)
# 7 Mikes Muscle Man (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 One Classy Dude (ML 6-1)
# 3 Thegift From Haven (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 American Rocket (ML 20-1) and # 8 Hezapleasantspark (ML 12-1)

Ceeky took the Place against more expensive last time out.  Mikes Muscle Man drops in for a tag for his second career contest, as well as getting Lasix for the first time.

One Classy Dude is by a Forestry mare; descendants of Forestry tend to do well at seven furlongs.  Thegift From Haven took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  That so far has been the only time in Thegift From Haven's seven race career that he's picked up his feet.  If his connections can figure out why Thegift From Haven ran on that day when he hasn't on any other, they just might find themselves with a decent horse on their hands.

RACE 9 - OC 25k/C - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Incensed (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 6 Padilla (ML 10-1)
# 7 Our Independence (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Starship Thor (ML 6-1)

Incensed ships in from up north after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two races against pure Allowance company.  Padilla missed victory by just a neck the last time that he competed over a firm turf course.  Our Independence won by daylight at this approximate class level over this turf course last time out.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $10k - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Convertible (ML 12-1)
# 12 Matchbook Lilly (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Pefectress (ML 5-1)
# 15 You Can Do Magic (ML 10-1)

C's

# 5 Asplashofanna (ML 20-1)
# 9 Ms. B V I (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Song Memory (ML 9-5), # 10 Minnieminnie (ML 30-1), # 14 Shesahellcat (ML 30-1), and # 16 Honor the Madonna (ML 30-1).  Bring in # 13 Serket (ML 30-1) and # 15 You Can Do Magic (ML 10-1) off The Also Eligible List, as those two will run

Convertible took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Matchbook Lilly took the Show at this class level last time out.  Perfectress and Asplashofanna should be forwardly placed early.  You Can Do Magic took the Show at this class level last time out.  Ms. B V I has proven to be competitive at this class level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.

OK, that's the analysis.  Since today is a mandatory payout day we can press our "A" Selections without fear of killing our jackpot chances.  So with that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.40 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $3.20

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 3,4,6 with 5,8 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 6,7,9 with 3,4,12,15 $57.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 7,8,10 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $4.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 2 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 4,7 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 1,3 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 5,9 $1.60

Total: $72.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 2:32 EST / 11:32 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, November 26, 2016

11/26/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Jimmy Durante - # 4 Journey Home (Final Odds 7.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Unique Bella (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Seabiscuit - # 7 Ring Weekend (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 One I'm Running To (2.40) - "A" Selection

We anticipated that the weather would create a high probability of an unusual occurrence in the grass contests; but I doubt that anyone could have possibly predicted what happened in The Jimmy Durante, as table tops from the infield blew onto the turf course, creating absolute chaos as horses were forced to steady and swerve as they attempted to avoid the various debris strewn across the grass around the first turn.  Thankfully there were no injuries, as it was reported that all horses and riders were safe upon their return.

Should the Jimmy Durante have been declared a no contest?  Well, needless to say, my opinion is biased, having as we did an investment in the outcome.  As can be seen by the notes in the chart of the race, the stewards ruled that "the majority of runners in the race were not affected by the debris"; a rather curious decision when one peruses the comments alongside each horse and sees that ten of the thirteen entrants were said to have encountered trouble due to the debris.  But we bettors agree prior to the race to abide by the decision of the stewards, not the chart callers; and since the results the opening leg of the sequence were allowed to stand, today was a day for us to contribute, and not collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 4 / 7 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $120.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Juveniles dominate the latter portion of Saturday's Del Mar card, with seventy-five percent of the final four races being contested by two year olds.  In addition, we expect to be looking skyward today; not just for divine guidance (though such is always welcome) but also to keep an eye out for the impending rains; so keep in mind that the two Graded Stakes scheduled for the turf today just may, may, wind up being taken off the lawn.  So with the backdrop laid let's get to it, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Jimmy Durante (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Defiant Honor (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 6 Partyinthepaddock (ML 15-1)
# 8 With Honors (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Defiant Honor graduated on a softened lawn in New York last time out, and should therefore appreciate any impending rainfall.  Partyinthepaddock closed well charging down the Santa Anita hill two starts back, which suggests that she should do well on the stretchout on the flats.  With Honors was a Listed Stakes winner the last time that she competed over this turf course.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Unique Bella (ML 7-5)
# 7 Mannerly (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Top Quality (ML 15-1)
# 5 Lady Mamba (ML 3-1)


Unique Bella, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out.  Mannerly, trained by Doug O'Neill, broke sharply and showed good early speed in her debut last time out.  Top Quality and Lady Mamba are a pair of first time starters whose sires (Quality Road and War Front, respectively) produce runners who tend to do well in their debuts.

RACE 8 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 What a View (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 10-1)
# 2 Stylistics United (ML 30-1)
# 3 Om (ML 5-2)
# 4 Vyjack (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hunt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Ring Weekend (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 10-1)

C's

None

What a View won a pair of Graded Stakes earlier this year at Santa Anita when there was a bit of a squish beneath his hooves; perhaps the raindrops Saturday will bring about a return to that form.  One thing for sure is that, be it wet or dry, What a View should be forwardly placed early.

The B's are everyone else.  Even without accounting for the weather, this looks to be a wide open affair; factor in the potential chaos that may be caused by the off going and it seems that the best move is to allow for the maximum possibility of catching the unexpected in this leg.

RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 One I'm Running To (ML 2-1)
# 5 Sawbuck (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Pampers n' Boots (ML 8-1)
# 7 Majestic Journey (ML 5-1)

Looks like a replay of our selections in the second leg, as we'll be using a pair of runners who have run well at this class level as our "A" Selections, while putting a pair of first time starters on a backup tickets as "C" Selections.  Interesting how that worked out; and let's hope that a few hours from now we'll be talking about how it did indeed "work out".

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4,7 with 5 with 4,5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6,8 with 4,7 with ALL with 4,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,5 with 5 with 4,5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,7 with 5 with 3,7 $2.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Thursday, November 24, 2016

11/24/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 6 Hot Market (Final Odds 4.90) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 7 Bad Ju Ju (2.30*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Red Carpet - # 1 Nuovo Record (Jpn) (5.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Big Champion (0.30*) - "A" Selection

We couldn't have been more right about our single in the finale, as Big Champion was never headed while winning the nightcap by as many as he pleased.  Unfortunately, we couldn't have been more wrong about Bad Ju Ju in the second leg, as her absence from our big ticket was the difference between us trashing or cashing today.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $86.70 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/24/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

“Acknowledging the good that you already have in your life is the foundation for all abundance.” - Eckhart Tolle

"Who does not thank for little will not thank for much." - Estonian Proverb

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles.  Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.

We have a holiday card today at Del Mar, with a Graded Stakes as the feature; The Red Carpet, to be precise.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 5 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Brandofthebartender (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Royal Privacy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Anatolian Heat (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hot Market (ML 4-1)
# 7 Family Code (ML 4-1)
# 9 Prohibition Repeal (ML 15-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 11 K Thirty Eight (No Line) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List

Brandofthebartender has taken the Place at this class level or higher in each of his last three starts.  Royal Privacy could be the controlling speed on the rail.  Anatolian Heat tries a one turn turf sprint for the first time, and looks as if he could benefit from the reduction in real estate.  Hot Market, a prior winner at this class level, seems to do his best running when having to go around just one turn.

Family Code tries grass for the first time, and he doesn't appear to have much of a turf pedigree; but it's my opinion that, when it comes to these short grass sprints, dirt form tends to carryover to the lawn more predictably than in the longer turf contests.  Continuing along that line of reasoning, we include Prohibition Repeal, who was victorious at this class level on the main track three starts back, albeit for different connections.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Lily Pod (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Stealth Drone (ML 5-1)
# 2 Brainspin (ML 4-1)
# 3 Forever Darling (ML 3-1)

C's

# 7 Bad Ju Ju (ML 4-1)

Lily Pad took the Show at this class level the last time that she competed on this main track.  Stealth Drone missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Brainspin took the Place at this class level last time out, and is a perfect two-for-two in her career over this main track.

Forever Darling is a Graded Stakes winner running in an Allowance contest off a layoff; while that's normally a red flag, I think the addition of blinkers here coupled with Forever Darling's more recent results against Graded Stakes competition suggests that Forever Darling is well meant here, rather than simply using this race as a prep for future contests.  Bad Ju Ju moves up the class ladder after winning by daylight against N1X company last time out.

RACE 7 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Arles (Fr) (ML 5-2)
# 5 Frenzified (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Nuovo Record (Jpn) (ML 3-1)
# 4 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 Swear by It (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 11 Backintheacademy (ML 30-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List

Arles (Fr) took the Place in the Grade 3 Glen Falls at Saratoga last time out at today's distance.  Frenzified was a Listed Stakes winner two starts back at today's distance over this turf course.

Nuovo Record (Jpn) was outclassed last time out and should improve against reduced company.  Generosidade (Uru) took the Place two starts back behind Frenzified in The CTT and TOC Handicap, and could move up off the freshening.  Swear by It has proven to be competitive against Graded Stakes company, and might move forward with the change in coasts.

RACE 8 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Big Champion (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Stormin Cowboy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Party Rule (ML 12-1)
# 6 Global Event (ML 7-2)
# 7 Julia's Summer (ML 12-1)

Big Champion took the Place at this class level three starts back.  Since then Big Champion has taken the Place against winners and the Show against non-claiming maidens.  I don't know why Big Champion's connections have chosen to return him to the lowest maiden claiming ranks rather than just using him to keep cashing the minor award checks against more expensive stock; but here Big Champion is, and he looks to me to be a clear head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.

So Big Champion will be a single on our big ticket, as I don't believe that any of the backups that we will be using have a high enough chance of victory to justify doubling the cost of our "All A Entries with All B Entries" purchase.  As regards our backups, Stormin Cowboy and Party Rule are first time starts whose sires (Cowboy Cal and Tribal Rule, respectively) tend to produce runners who do well at first asking.  Global Event goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such.  Julia's Summer could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,9 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 3 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 2,5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 3 with 3 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 4,5,6,7 $4.00

Total: $55.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 3:59 EST / 12:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, November 20, 2016

11/20/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Moe Candy (Final Odds 4.30) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Start a Runnin (11.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 9 Solid Wager (2.80) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Sugary (3.30*) - "A" Selection

We saw three nines kick off the sequence; and while it's certainly not the norm for the same program number to sweep a Pick Three, what made it even more of a curiosity was that all three nines were ridden by the same jockey, Victor Espinoza.  I don't know if anyone has access to a database where they can see when was the last time a jockey drew the same program number in three consecutive races with fields containing at least nine runners, but I imagine it's quite rare; and it's got to be off the charts unusual to have the same jockey win with the same program number in three straight contests (again, with each race having at least nine assigned program numbers).

Anyway, the nightcap saw the end to both the streak of # 9 and the streak of Victor Espinoza aboard the winner; as Espinoza's ride in the finale, # 10 Onzaway (6.30) crossed the wire fifth; while # 9 Could Be Magic (3.90), ridden by Mike Smith, was the last one home.  How rare a feat would it have been for Espinoza to sweep The Pick Four?  I don't know; but I do know that Corey Nakatani pulled it off on Oct 12, 2013 at Santa Anita.

As for our play, we ran the gamut, bringing home one each of our "A", "B", and "C" selections, as well as suffering the ignominy of having a total whiff in the very first leg.  Add it all up, and it results in today being a day for us to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 9 / 9 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $826.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/20/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

The Cary Grant is today's featured race at Del Mar; and we'll be looking at that contest below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Well Measured (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 7 Blue Anchor (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Dead Easy (ML 12-1)
# 4 Spanish Hombre (ML 8-1)

Well Measured, a perfect three-for-three lifetime over this main track, defeated more expensive here two starts back, after winning at this level in his most recent race prior to that.  Blue Anchor, who could be the speed of the speed here, took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Dead Easy and Spanish Hombre appear to be the two who will be running best late.

RACE 7 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Unapologetic (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Fin de Semaine (ML 7-2)
# 9 Start a Runnin (ML 5-1)

C's

# 7 Afleet Domination (ML 15-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is restricted to three year olds only.  Unapologetic missed victory by just a neck two starts back against more expensive over this turf course.  Fin de Semaine goes first off the claim for Trainer Jay Kruljac, who tends to do well with such.  Start a Runnin could get burnt early with all the speed here; but the outside draw could help give Start a Runnin a nice stalking trip with first run at the leaders.  Afleet Domination shows a steadily improving form, as well as some very nice morning moves.

RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Magic Mark (ML 5-2)
# 7 Gold Rush Dancer (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Image of Joplin (ML 12-1)
# 6 Acceptance (ML 7-2)

# 9 Solid Wager (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 4 Lucky J Lane (No Line)

Magic Mark and Gold Rush Dancer both appear to be in top form, and they each sport recent wins at this class level.  Image of Joplin, going first off the claim for Trainer Michael Pender, could be an early pace presence.

Acceptance won at this class level charging down the Santa Anita Hill last time out, and has previously won on the dirt at this class level.  Solid Wager is the defending champ for this contest, and could be the one running best late.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Sugary (ML 3-1)
# 7 Curricula (ML 8-1)


B's

# 3 Shezroxiie (ML 6-1)
# 5 Special Gal (ML 7-2)
# 9 Could Be Magic (ML 4-1)
# 10 Onzaway (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Morganna (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 6 Latino Mo (NL).  Bring in # 11 Sassy Ashley (ML 20-1), but scratch the other Also Eligibles: # 12 Georgia Blue (ML 10-1); # 13 Midnight Toast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Lauren's Export (ML 5-2)

Sugary has been within two lengths of the winner at the wire in each of her three career turf starts.  Curricula could be the quickest early in this field.

Shezroxiie took the Show in her debut charging down the Santa Anita Hill last time out.  Special Gal wanted no part of the hill last time out, and could improve with a return to flat racing.  Could Be Magic closed well sprinting on this turf course in her debut back in August.

Onzaway has proven to be competitive at this class level.  Morganna is a first time starter sired by Uncle Mo, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 5 with 2,7 with 4,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,10 with 5,6,9 with 2,7 with 3,4,5,7,9,10 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 5 with 2,7 with 4,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 7 with 2,7 with 4,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 3,6,9 with 4,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 2,7 with 1 $1.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, November 19, 2016

11/19/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 Gangster (Final Odds 4.90) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Bobby Abu Dhabi (2.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Perfectly Majestic (5.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Cecile's Diamond (2.80) - "A" Selection

Gangster certainly proved to be a popular selection in the opening leg, being well bet down from his 12-1 Morning Line Odds.  And we had a close one go our way in the third leg; for while we still would have collected had Perfectly Majestic not had a longer neck than # 7 Itsinthepost (Fr) (2.70*) the payout would not have been nearly as high.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 4 Motutapu (1.70*) - $370.25 Finish: 4th
# 7 Cosmic Beauty (10.70) - $1650.10 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of  1 / 9 / 9 / 11  which paid $662.70 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $587.70 on our $75 investment, or approximate odds of 7.836-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/19/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

The Bob Hope is today's featured race at Del Mar; and, who knows, perhaps the field of juveniles for that event includes the winner of the 2017 Kentucky Derby.  But we won't be looking at that contest here, carded, as it was, outside of the final four events on the program.  But one of the races we will be analyzing is a different main track contest for two year olds, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Liam the Charmer (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Gangster (ML 12-1)
# 3 Reflected Star (ML 3-1)

C's

# 4 Sawyer's Hill (ML 8-1)
# 6 Willing to Travel (ML 8-1)

Scratch The Also Eligibles: # 10 Aotearoa (ML 6-1); # 11 Terrys Tom Cat (ML 5-1); and # 12 Professor Berns (ML 20-1)

Liam the Charmer gets some class relief after closing well in each of his last two starts against stakes competition.  Gangster could be quickest here in what looks to be a relatively paceless field.  Reflected Star took the Place at this class level last time out.

Sawyer's Hill will be tough here if he can return to his form from two years back.  Willing to Travel takes a step down the class ladder after taking the Show against classier competition two starts back.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Match Play (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 A. P. Zona (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bobby Abu Dhabi (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Honor and Courage (ML 3-1)
# 3 Adorned (ML 10-1)

These are the juveniles, with a third of the nine horse field being first time starters.  Match Play, trained by Bob Baffert, is one of those debut runners, and has been training well for this contest.  A. P. Zonea wanted no part of two turns last time out, and could improve with the reduction in real estate.

Bobby Abu Dhabi, another first time starter, has been working well for Trainer Peter Miller.  Honor and Courage took the Show at this class level last time out.  Adorned, the third of the first timers here, was sired by Uncle Mo, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 8 - OC 100k/C - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Little Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Play Hard to Get (ML 12-1)
# 8 Wanstead Gardens (ML 5-1)
# 9 Perfectly Majestic (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Papacoolpapacool (ML 6-1)

Scratch The Also Eligible, # 10 Clever Royal (ML 12-1)

Little Curlin looks to be an excellent candidate to steal this one on the front end; or, barring that, to be in perfect position to get first run on the leader.  Itsinthepost (Fr) was a clear winner against lesser last time out, and appears to be in love with today's distance, getting his picture taken three of the four times that he's tried it.

Play Hard to Get took the Place at this class level last time out.  Wanstead Gardens was victorious the last time that he competed outside of Graded Stakes company.  Perfectly Majestic gets some class relief, though it's fair to wonder how he'll do stretching out.  Papacoolpapacool has taken the Show at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Cecile's Diamond (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Motutapu (ML 5-2)
# 7 Cosmic Beauty (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Warren's Honey Bee (ML 7-2)

Scratch The Also Eligibles, # 13 Aloha Spirit (ML 3-1) and # 14 Royal Red (ML 20-1)

Cecile's Diamond drops in class after showing good early speed in each of her last two starts.  Motutapu missed graduation by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Cosmic Beauty flashed early quickness in her debut last time out.  Warren's Honey Bee has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in three of her last four races.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 8 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1,8,9 with 1,4,7,8,9 with 4,7,11 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 8 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 3 with 11 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 4,7 with 5 $1.00

Total: $75.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, November 13, 2016

11/13/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 11 Tiz Makin Memories (Final Odds 3.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Dynamic Mizzes K (9,20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 5 Chao Chom (8.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Colonel Samsen (4.20) - "C" Selection

The heavy favorite in The Betty Grable, # 2 Enola Gray (0.10*) didn't have it today, as she was out-dueled on the lead by the eventual winner and had to settle for the Place.  That unexpected result played a major role in The Pick Six being taken down by a single ticket which paid $1,041,696.60 for the two dollar wager, an outcome which was secured only upon Colonel Samsen nipping # 3 Ice Kat (9.90) on the line in the very last stride.

As for us, our play ended with Enola Gray's defeat; as we, like her, just didn't have it today, as we were unable to get a single one of our "A" Selections home.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  11 / 3 / 5 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $2,698.95 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/13/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking." - George S. Patton

As Veterans Day weekend in the US draws to a close, we again pause to honor and thank all who have served in the United States Armed Forces.  And as Opening Weekend of The Nobody Wants To Hit The Pick Six Meet at Del Mar reaches its final day, we again set our sights on the lesser pool, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - [S] (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Bar Scene (Morning Line 5-1)
# 4 Wanda's Touch (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 To B. Ava (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lemon Orchid (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bella Sierrra (ML 10-1)
# 11 Tiz Makin Memories (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 8 Irish Devil (ML 20-1)

Note that these are not juveniles, despite the fact that there are five in this field that are making their debut.  Also interesting to note the five first time starters drew the first five Post Positions; amazing what the luck of the draw can produce.

Bar Scene and Wanda's Touch are two debut runners whose sires (Rocky Bar and Square Eddie, respectively) tend to produce first out winners.  To B. Ava showed good early speed last time out in her first start on the dirt.

Lemon Orchid showed last time out that she didn't much care for the turf, as she had performed much better in her dirt debut the race prior.  Bella Sierra has finished in the Trifecta at this class level.  Tiz Makin Memories showed good early speed in her debut last time out, and has been working well of late at Los Alamitos.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Untouchable U (ML 7-2)
# 8 Del Mar Ann (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Shazara (ML 3-1)
# 2 Mrs. Norris (ML 8-1)
# 3 Dynamic Mizzes K (ML 6-1)
# 6 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 4-1)

C's

# 9 Zip N Bayou (ML 8-1)

Five of the nine runners in this field exit the same race; of those five Untouchable U came the closest to victory, taking the Place a half length behind Lily Kai.  Untouchable U takes the blinkers off for this contest; Trainer Richard Baltas is quite successful when making that move.

The very appropriately named Del Mar Ann is the horse for this turf course, having won both of her prior tries on this lawn.  Shazara took the Place against pure N1X Allowance company last time out.  Mrs. Norris has performed well in both her starts with today's rider, Jockey Victor Espinoza, on her back.

Dynamic Mizzes K took the Show behind Untouchable U last time out; Zip N Bayou was fourth in the contest, less than two lengths behind the winner.  Peach Cove (NZ), a Listed Stakes winner in her native New Zealand, stretches out for the first time.  The way she closed charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out suggests that Peach Cove should handle the added real estate well.

RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Enola Gray (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Barbara Beatrice (ML 6-1)
# 3 My Fiona (ML 4-1)

Enola Gray, victorious in four of her five career starts, including three state-bred stakes, is clearly the one to beat here.  Expect Enola Gray to be out front early; while Barbara Beatrice and My Fiona appear to be the two here with the best chance of running her down late.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Kimbear (ML 9-2)
# 8 Kona Dreams (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Colonel Samsen (ML 8-1)
# 3 Ice Kat (ML 5-1)
# 4 Camino de Estrella (ML 6-1)

Scratch everyone who was on the Also Eligible List: # 11 Odyssey Explorer (No Line); # 12 Avalanche (ML 4-1); # 13 Moonman (ML 20-1); # 14 Big Hit (ML 8-1)

Kimbear has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts.  Kona Dreams missed graduation by a nose in his debut last time out.

Colonel Samsen has not fared well since shipping in from the east; but Colonel Samsen did take the Place at this class level three starts back on the Kentucky Downs lawn.  Ice Kat ran well in his debut last time out, once he figured out that there was a race going on and he was in it.  Camino de Estrella tries the turf for the first time; if he can handle the surface, Camino de Estrella could find himself with a nice trip pressing the early pace.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 2 with 6,8 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7,9,11 with 1,2,3,6,7,8 with 2 with 6,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 9 with 2 with 6,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 1,3 with 6,8 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 2 with 2,3,4 $6.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, November 12, 2016

11/12/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Buymeabond (Final Odds 2.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Pedro Cerrano (2.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 He Will (3.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Foolish to Deceive (3.50) - No Selection

For those of you keeping score at home, our "A" Selection in the final leg, # 10 Zealous Tale (3.10*) is now five-for-five for his career; as in, five career starts, five times having failed as the Post Time Favorite.  If anyone knows what the record is in that regard, I'd be interested in hearing about it.

Getting back to the nightcap, "B" Selection # 5 Johann's Command (13.70) made a valiant effort in the final leg, battling back in the stretch against the eventual winner after being passed coming out the turn, only to come up a length short and having to settle for the Place.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 The Golden Kid (14,30) - $473.00 Finish: 8th
# 5 Johann's Command (13.70) - $1,002.30 Finish: 2nd
# 10 Zealous Tale (3.10*) - $134.40 Finish: 9th
# 12 Gavin Streetsense (7.20) - $763.80 - Finish: 3rd

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 9 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $166.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/12/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

"Whenever the world makes you cynical; whenever you seek true humility and true selflessness, look to a veteran." - President Obama

As Veterans Day weekend continues in the US, we take another opportunity to honor and thank all who served in the United States Armed Forces.  And as Opening Weekend of The Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar continues, we take another opportunity to increase our bankroll, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Sweet Daddy (Morning Line 20-1)
# 8 Buymeabond (ML 7-2)


B’s

None

C's

# 5 Infinite Magic (ML 5-1)
# 6 Indygo Bo (ML 4-1)
# 10 Tattenham (ML 9-2)

Sweet Daddy hasn't done much since shipping to SoCal from points east; but he also hasn't been in for a tag this cheap since arriving in California.  Sweet Daddy was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level.

Buymeabond took the Show at this class level last time out.  Infinite Magic took the Show against more expensive last time out; but I think Infinite Magic prefers races that cover more real estate.

Indygo Bo disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out.  Indygo Bo goes first off the claim for Trainer Vladimir Cerin, who tends to do well with such.  Tattenham could move up with the addition of blinkers.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Hye I'm Jack (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 3 Pedro Cerrano (ML 9-2)
# 4 Thunder Basin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Anthonysgotgame (ML 5-1)
# 9 Majestic Kitten (20-1)

C's

# 1 Bluegrass Bronco (ML 6-1)
# 8 Senator Robert (ML 12-1)
# 10 Eddie's Turn (ML 7-2)

Hye I'm Jack took the Show at this class level last time out.  Pedro Cerrano, who defeated more expensive over this main track back in August, takes a big tumble down the class ladder.  Thunder Basin should improve with the return to one turn racing.

Anthonysgotgame has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three dirt starts.  Majestic Kitten seems misplaced off the grass; but Majestic Kitten took the Show at this class level two starts back, and could move up with a trip less troubled than those which sandwich that effort.

Bluegrass Bronco took the Show at this class level last time out, and Bluegrass Bronco could be speed on the rail today.  Senator Robert gets some much needed class relief.  Eddie's Turn, making his second tour with Trainer Eddie Truman's barn, could improve if he can be kept away from the early pace.

RACE 8 - OC 62k/C - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Crown the Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 6 Hobbits Hero (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 9 He Will (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Stormy Liberal (ML 6-1)
# 2 Banze No Oeste (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Big Bane Theory (ML 12-1)


Scratch # 7 Howdy (ML 30-1)

Crown the Kitten too the Place at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts.  Hobbits Hero did all the heavy lifting in that same contest, and could improve with the cutback in distance.

He Will moves up in class after winning at the OC40k/N1X level last time out, and has been showing steady improvement in each of his most recent outings.  Stormy Liberal has proven to be competitive at this class level, but Stormy Liberal is running out of chances to prove that he can actually win against this level of competition.

Banze No Oeste (Brz) missed by just a neck at this class level, but that was charging down the hill at Santa Anita.  Big Bane Theory may have need that last one, and could improve going second off the layoff.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Zealous Tale (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 The Golden Kid (ML 5-1)
# 5 Johann's Command (ML 8-1)
# 12 Gavin Streetsense (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 King's Palace (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sunny Jade (ML 30-1)
# 6 Woodstock Memory (ML 8-1)
# 11 Strong Leader (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 20-1); bring in # 13 Little Mustard (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible List to take his place.

Zealous Tale has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his four career starts.  But Zealous Tale was competitive in three of those four races, and he is now in for the cheapest price tag of his career.

The Golden Kid gets off the grass while dropping in for a tag for the first time in his career.  Johann's Command took the Show at this class level last time out after doing all the heavy lifting on the front end.  Gavin Streetsense took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

King's Palace puts on the hood for his second career start, his first in the claiming ranks.  Sunny Jade could be quickest early.  Woodstock Memory has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two races.  Strong Leader didn't show much in his debut charging down the hill at Santa Anita last time out; perhaps the drop in for a tag will help make him more competitive.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 3,6 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,4,5,7,9 with 3,6,9 with 1,5,10,12 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6,10 with 5 with 3,6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 1,8,10 with 3,6 with 10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 3,6 with 3,4,6,11 $8.00

Total: $84.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, November 6, 2016

11/6/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Goldikova - # 5 Zindaya (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Beach Bum (5.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Bad Ju Ju (4.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Ward 'n Jerry (12.20) - No Selection

In addition to the winner in the second leg, Trainer Bob Baffert also had the Show horse, # 4 First Degree Burn (19.60).  As both Beach Bum and First Degree Burn were first time starters, we may have to wait for a few of the runners in this field to come back before we can fully evaluate this win; that is, did Beach Bum, who crossed under the wire more than five lengths in front of Place horse # 10 Royal Mo (3.40), give an exceptional performance; or did he simply catch a weak group of competitors?

Or maybe we don't have to wait.  After all, Beach Bum ran the seven furlong distance of Race 7 in a final time of 1:22.83.  That was quicker than the final time of 1:23.11 posted by four year old filly Bad Ju Ju while winning the seven furlong OC 40k/N1X that immediately followed.  Beach Bum was sired by Arch (who sired Blame, among others) out of a Storm Cat mare; so the breeding is there.  So maybe we got to see the debut of a future three year old champion today.  Which would be a nice thing to look back upon, as very little went right for us today.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 11 / 10 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $1,272.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

So The Breeders' Cup has come and gone, and we now come to the final day of Santa Anita's Fall Meet.  The Grade 2 Goldikova is Sunday's featured race; we'll be looking at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - The Goldikova (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Nancy From Nairobi (GB) (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Zindaya (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Hillhouse High (ML 12-1)

The last four times that Nancy From Nairobi (GB) has limited her running to just eight furlongs she has scooped up three Wins and one Place; one of those three Wins being the Grade 2 Royal Heroine, contested back in May over this turf course.

Zindaya ships in from the east, having most recently taken the Place in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel at Belmont.  Zindaya's one prior try over this turf course came two years back, when she took the Show in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss.

Prize Exhibit (GB) has proven to be competitive at this class level; but her recent form suggests that she may be due for a freshening.  Hillhouse High is moving up the class ladder after taking an OC 62k/N2X last time out.  Hillhouse High could be the one leading the field early, and perhaps late as well.

RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Eleutheros (ML 4-1)
# 3 Blabimir (ML 20-1)

B's

# 6 Seau (ML 7-2)
# 7 Cistron (ML 4-1)

C's

# 10 Royal Mo (ML 6-1)

These are juveniles, and whenever you see non-claiming juvenile maidens at this time of year, you always wonder which if any will be future Kentucky Derby contenders; especially with a solid field such as this.

Eleutheros took the Place in his debut behind a next out winner last time out.  Blabimir adds the hood for his second career start, and has definitely been sharp in his most recent works for Trainer Doug O'Neill.

Seau took the Place in his debut behind Sword Fighter, who was fourth in Saturday's Juvenile Turf Sprint.  Cistron took the Show as the Post Time Favorite in his debut last time out.  Royal Mo took the Place in his debut last time out.  The concern with Royal Mo is that he has not run since that debut, which was back in August.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Fantasy of Luck (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 7 Dashin Ashen (ML 6-1)
# 10 Bad Ju Ju (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Little Dume (ML 8-1)
# 6 Skye Diamonds (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 8 Fruity (Ire) (ML 15-1)

Fantasy of Luck has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts.  Dashin Ashen should improve with the move make to one turn dirt racing.  Bad Ju Ju took the Show at this class level last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.

Little Dume tries winners for the first time after graduating in the slop at Keeneland last time out.  Skye Diamonds moves up the class ladder after winning three of her last four starts against lesser stock.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 I'malreadythere (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 8 Trojan Nation (ML 4-1)
# 12 Buster Douglas (Brz) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Aldrin (ML 20-1)
# 7 Pretentious (ML 10-1)
# 9 Air Pocket (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 3 Touching Rainbows (No Line) and # 14 Willing To Travel (ML 8-1)

I'malreadythere took the Place at this class level two starts back.  I'malreadythere will be blinkers free for this contest, just as she was in her only prior career Win.

Trojan won his turf debut two starts back, and could improve off the freshening.  Buster Douglas (Brz) was an Allowance winner at today's distance two starts back in his native Brazil.

Aldrin and Air Pocket look to be the pace setters here; if one fails to go, the other could be gone.  Pretentious has proven to be competitive at this class level; but the concern with Pretentious is that he has had plenty of chances to win at this level, and has come up short.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,5 with 2,3 with 9 with 11 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 2,3,6,7 with 7,9,10 with 8,11,12 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 2,3 with 9 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 10 with 9 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 2,3 with 1,6 with 11 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 2,3 with 9 with 1,7,9 $6.00

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:29 EDT / 2:29 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, November 5, 2016

11/5/16 Santa Anita All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The BC Turf - # 12 Highland Reel (Ire) (Final Odds 3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC F&M Sprint - # 12 Finest City (8.70) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Mile - # 5 Tourist (12.40) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 10 Arrogate (1.70) - "A" Selection

There are times, many times, when the big event fails to live up to the big hype; but these past two days were not those times.  While today's Breeders' Cup Classic may not have had the tight finish that we witnessed in yesterday's Breeders' Cup Distaff, both races showcased the best versus the best at their best, treating us fans to a pair of contests that will rank for all-time among the best the sport has ever experienced.

As to our play, well, you know how this works: had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.  Make Tourist a "B", or make Finest City an "A", or make # 8 Tepin (3.70) get to the wire a half length quicker in the BC Mile, and we get to collect.  But none of those things happened, so instead we get to contribute.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  12 / 12 / 5 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $1,003.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/16 Santa Anita All BC Early Pick Four - Results

Race 4 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 6 Champagne Room (Final Odds 33.60) - No Selection
Race 5 - The BC F&M Turf - # 11 Queen's Trust (GB) (8.00) - No Selection
Race 6 - The BC Sprint - # 2 Drefong (3.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 2 Obviously (Ire) (3.80*) - "A" Selection

If you're gonna miss, might as well miss big; and, boy, did we miss big.  Well, not all that big, as we did get our our "A" Selection home in the final leg, as well as having "A" Selections take the Place in The F&M Turf (# 8 Lady Eli (1.60*)) and The Sprint (# 7 Masochistic (1.60*)).  But miss one, miss 'em all, or miss any number in between: it's all the same to the bottom line, as this was a round for us to contribute instead of cash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  6 / 11 / 2 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $7,969.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/16 Santa Anita All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

This is it: the big one, the final four Breeders' Cup races for 2016 at Santa Anita, culminating with the BC Challenge.  For us, the big challenge will be if we can stay on budget, as we take a run at The All BC Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Found (Ire) (Morning Line 3-1)
# 12 Highland Reel (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Flintshire (GB) (ML 5-2)
# 5 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 15-1)

C's

# 3 Ectot (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mondialiste (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 9 Money Multiplier (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 13 Metaboss (ML 13-1)

Keeping it brief because of time constraints; but also because you already know most of these horses.  Flintshire (GB)'s last can be forgiven due to the softer footing; for the same reason Ectot (GB) gets slightly down graded.  Ashleyluvssugar is the local hero with multiple Graded Stakes wins over this course.  Mondialiste (Ire) is a question mark at the distance, while Money Multiplier remains competitive but seemingly gets camera shy when moving up in class.

RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Haveyougoneaway (ML 3-1)

B's

# 6 By the Moon (ML 8-1)
# 8 Carina Mia (ML 7-2)
# 11 Irish Jasper (ML 10-1)
# 12 Finest City (ML 12-1)

C's

# 5 Wonder Gal (ML 30-1)
# 10 Wavell Avenue (ML 6-1)

I'm not sure about that big figure Wonder Gal put up two back; but Irish Jasper followed up her big number two back with a Grade 2 win.  Finest City picked up a Graded Stakes win the last time she only had to go around one turn.  Carina Mia might get over bet; but her tactical speed makes it tough to downgrade her to a "C".

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Tepin (ML 3-1)
# 13 Midnight Storm (ML 12-1)

B's

# 2 Alice Springs (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Photo Call (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 9 Ironicus (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Miss Temple City (ML 12-1)
# 5 Tourist (ML 15-1)
# 10 Limato (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 14 Cougar Mountain (Ire) (ML 20-1)

I'm pretty sure 12-1 on Midnight Storm is going to prove to be a mirage; but we'll see.  Photo Call (Ire) may have freaked last time out; or she may have been crying out for the cutback in distance all along.  Ironicus will be the one running best late.

Alice Springs (Ire) may have trouble working out a trip, but must be respected because of all those Group 1 victories.  Limato (Ire) is questionable at the distance.

RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 California Chrome (ML 1-1)
# 10 Arrogate (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Frosted (ML 5-1)
# 9 Hoppertunity (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 8 Shaman Ghost (ML 20-1)

And that's why we're going over budget: I just could not choose between these two.  California Chrome has been the best horse in training this year; but the more you look at Arrogate's win in The Travers, and the way that he has worked over this main track since, the more impossible it becomes to leave him off the big ticket.  In the unlikely event that those two burn each other out, then it will be either Frosted right behind them or Hoppertunity running late to beat # 3 Keen Ice (ML 20-1) to the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10,12 with 2 with 8,13 with 4,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5,10,12 with 2,6,8,11,12 with 2,6,8,9,13 with 4,10 $100.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,9 with 2 with 8,13 with 4,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10,12 with 5,10 with 8,13 with 4,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 10,12 with 2 with 4,5,10,14 with 4,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 10,12 with 2 with 8,13 with 2,9 $4.00

Total: $134.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 6:22 EDT / 3:22 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/16 Santa Anita All BC Early Pick Four - Preview

Saturday is Day Two of The Breeders' Cup, America's Day(s) at the Races, at Santa Anita Park, with nine Breeders' Cup contests on the card.  Those nine contests have been divided into two All-Breeders's Cup Pick Fours; Races 4-7 (inclusive) and Races 9-12 (inclusive); with Race 8, The BC Juvenile, being the odd man out.  This post will look at the first of those two sequences; so let's get to it as we take a run at The All BC Early Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 American Gal (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 2 With Honors (ML 10-1)
# 4 Yellow Agate (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sweet Loretta (ML 6-1)
# 10 Noted and Quoted (ML 9-2)

C's

# 7 Jamyson 'n Ginger (ML 8-1)
# 9 Union Strike (ML 6-1)

American Gal, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to be the speed of the speed here, which should help her overcome the outside draw.  American Gal is also stretching out to two turns for the first time; her breeding suggests that the added distance should prove beneficial.

Noted and Quoted and With Honors filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Chandelier over this main track last month.  Yellow Agate has demonstrated the ability to rate while winning her first two career starts.  Sweet Loretta already has a pair of Graded Stakes victories under her belt.

Jamyson 'n Ginger freaked in the slop last time out; or did she?  Maybe she just really enjoyed stretching out to eight furlongs.  Union Strike looked sharp in winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante; but it's fair to question what affect the change in trainers will have upon her performance.

RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Lady Eli (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Sea Calisi (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 3 Seventh Heaven (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sentiero Italia (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Catch a Glimpse (ML 12-1)
# 4 Avenge (ML 15-1)
# 10 Kitcat (Chi) (20-1)

Lady Eli, Sentiero Italia, and Sea Calisi (Fr) filled out the Trifecta last month in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl, and all three look to be ready for today's contest.  Seventh Heaven (Ire) is a two time Group 1 winner, and should receive a much better trip than she did last time out.  Catch a Glimpse, Avenge, and Kitcat (Chi) all project to be up front early, and all have the capability of carrying their early speed all the way to wire.

RACE 6 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 A. P. Indian (ML 4-1)
# 7 Masochistic (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Joking (ML 15-1) and # 6 Lord Nelson (ML 5-2)

Among the questions to which I do not know the answer: Why is The BC Sprint six furlongs, while The BC Fillies & Mares Sprint seven furlongs?  Be that as it may, A. P. Indian and Masochistic appear to be the two standouts in this field, and I don't see a compelling reason to choose between the two for the prime spot on our tickets.

Among those that will be breaking from the gate, Mind Your Biscuits looks to be the one that will be running best late; and while it most likely will be far too late, I think Mind Your Biscuits status as the sole legitimate closer in the field, coupled with what are sure to be astronomical odds, means that it's worth taking a flyer on him as a backup selection.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Obviously (Ire) (ML 6-1)

B's

# 12 Om (ML 12-1)
# 14 Celestine (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Mongolian Saturday (ML 12-1)
# 4 Home of The Brave (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Washington DC (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Suedois (Fr) (ML 10-1); but don't bring in # 15 Lady Shipman (ML 12-1) to take his place; rather, # 16 Green Mask (ML 15-1) will draw in off The Also Eligible List and run in this event

One of the drawbacks to having The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is that there is no legitimate turf sprint; for while the charge down the hill is visually stunning and unquestionably exciting, it's a far different race from your typical five-to-six furlong speed duel on the grass that one usually thinks of when this division is considered.  So I always feel somewhat sorry for those connections who have legitimate turf sprinters on the flats who now have to hope that their chargers will be able to negotiate a racing surface far different from what they're used.

Okay, editorial comment aside, looking at this race I think Om and Obviously (Ire), the Place and Show finishers behind Vyjack in the City of Hope Mile last time out, should both benefit from the move from the flats to the downhill turf course.  I give the edge to Obviously, as the early speed that he's been flashing on the flat routes should be of great benefit as he returns to the hillside course.

Celestine, competing for the first time on some California grass, has demonstrated the early speed running style in turf routes that typically translates into good performances down the hill.  Mongolian Saturday is to be respected as the defending champ of the event; but Mongolian Saturday has visited the Winner's Circle only one time since that contest, and that one time was again sprinting five and a half furlongs at Keeneland.

Home of The Brave (Ire) and Washington DC (Ire), a pair of Irish breds with American influenced names, are certainly talented enough to win at this level; the question now being how they will handle the charge down the hill.  Look for Home of The Brave early and Washington DC late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 12 with 8 with 5,7 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,10,12 with 1,3,7,8 with 5,7 with 2,12,14 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7,9 with 8 with 5,7 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 2,4,10 with 5,7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 8 with 1 with 2 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 8 with 5,7 with 3,4,8 $3.00

Total: $70.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo