Sunday, November 13, 2016

11/13/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking." - George S. Patton

As Veterans Day weekend in the US draws to a close, we again pause to honor and thank all who have served in the United States Armed Forces.  And as Opening Weekend of The Nobody Wants To Hit The Pick Six Meet at Del Mar reaches its final day, we again set our sights on the lesser pool, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - [S] (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Bar Scene (Morning Line 5-1)
# 4 Wanda's Touch (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 To B. Ava (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lemon Orchid (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bella Sierrra (ML 10-1)
# 11 Tiz Makin Memories (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 8 Irish Devil (ML 20-1)

Note that these are not juveniles, despite the fact that there are five in this field that are making their debut.  Also interesting to note the five first time starters drew the first five Post Positions; amazing what the luck of the draw can produce.

Bar Scene and Wanda's Touch are two debut runners whose sires (Rocky Bar and Square Eddie, respectively) tend to produce first out winners.  To B. Ava showed good early speed last time out in her first start on the dirt.

Lemon Orchid showed last time out that she didn't much care for the turf, as she had performed much better in her dirt debut the race prior.  Bella Sierra has finished in the Trifecta at this class level.  Tiz Makin Memories showed good early speed in her debut last time out, and has been working well of late at Los Alamitos.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Untouchable U (ML 7-2)
# 8 Del Mar Ann (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Shazara (ML 3-1)
# 2 Mrs. Norris (ML 8-1)
# 3 Dynamic Mizzes K (ML 6-1)
# 6 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 4-1)

C's

# 9 Zip N Bayou (ML 8-1)

Five of the nine runners in this field exit the same race; of those five Untouchable U came the closest to victory, taking the Place a half length behind Lily Kai.  Untouchable U takes the blinkers off for this contest; Trainer Richard Baltas is quite successful when making that move.

The very appropriately named Del Mar Ann is the horse for this turf course, having won both of her prior tries on this lawn.  Shazara took the Place against pure N1X Allowance company last time out.  Mrs. Norris has performed well in both her starts with today's rider, Jockey Victor Espinoza, on her back.

Dynamic Mizzes K took the Show behind Untouchable U last time out; Zip N Bayou was fourth in the contest, less than two lengths behind the winner.  Peach Cove (NZ), a Listed Stakes winner in her native New Zealand, stretches out for the first time.  The way she closed charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out suggests that Peach Cove should handle the added real estate well.

RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Enola Gray (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Barbara Beatrice (ML 6-1)
# 3 My Fiona (ML 4-1)

Enola Gray, victorious in four of her five career starts, including three state-bred stakes, is clearly the one to beat here.  Expect Enola Gray to be out front early; while Barbara Beatrice and My Fiona appear to be the two here with the best chance of running her down late.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Kimbear (ML 9-2)
# 8 Kona Dreams (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Colonel Samsen (ML 8-1)
# 3 Ice Kat (ML 5-1)
# 4 Camino de Estrella (ML 6-1)

Scratch everyone who was on the Also Eligible List: # 11 Odyssey Explorer (No Line); # 12 Avalanche (ML 4-1); # 13 Moonman (ML 20-1); # 14 Big Hit (ML 8-1)

Kimbear has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts.  Kona Dreams missed graduation by a nose in his debut last time out.

Colonel Samsen has not fared well since shipping in from the east; but Colonel Samsen did take the Place at this class level three starts back on the Kentucky Downs lawn.  Ice Kat ran well in his debut last time out, once he figured out that there was a race going on and he was in it.  Camino de Estrella tries the turf for the first time; if he can handle the surface, Camino de Estrella could find himself with a nice trip pressing the early pace.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 2 with 6,8 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7,9,11 with 1,2,3,6,7,8 with 2 with 6,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 9 with 2 with 6,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 1,3 with 6,8 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 7,8 with 2 with 2,3,4 $6.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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