11/5/16 Santa Anita All BC Early Pick Four - Preview

Saturday is Day Two of The Breeders' Cup, America's Day(s) at the Races, at Santa Anita Park, with nine Breeders' Cup contests on the card.  Those nine contests have been divided into two All-Breeders's Cup Pick Fours; Races 4-7 (inclusive) and Races 9-12 (inclusive); with Race 8, The BC Juvenile, being the odd man out.  This post will look at the first of those two sequences; so let's get to it as we take a run at The All BC Early Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 American Gal (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 2 With Honors (ML 10-1)

# 4 Yellow Agate (ML 8-1)

# 5 Sweet Loretta (ML 6-1)

# 10 Noted and Quoted (ML 9-2)

C's

# 7 Jamyson 'n Ginger (ML 8-1)
# 9 Union Strike (ML 6-1)

American Gal, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to be the speed of the speed here, which should help her overcome the outside draw.  American Gal is also stretching out to two turns for the first time; her breeding suggests that the added distance should prove beneficial.

Noted and Quoted and With Honors filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Chandelier over this main track last month.  Yellow Agate has demonstrated the ability to rate while winning her first two career starts.  Sweet Loretta already has a pair of Graded Stakes victories under her belt.

Jamyson 'n Ginger freaked in the slop last time out; or did she?  Maybe she just really enjoyed stretching out to eight furlongs.  Union Strike looked sharp in winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante; but it's fair to question what affect the change in trainers will have upon her performance.

RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Lady Eli (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Sea Calisi (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Seventh Heaven (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 7 Sentiero Italia (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Catch a Glimpse (ML 12-1)

# 4 Avenge (ML 15-1)

# 10 Kitcat (Chi) (20-1)

Lady Eli, Sentiero Italia, and Sea Calisi (Fr) filled out the Trifecta last month in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl, and all three look to be ready for today's contest.  Seventh Heaven (Ire) is a two time Group 1 winner, and should receive a much better trip than she did last time out.  Catch a Glimpse, Avenge, and Kitcat (Chi) all project to be up front early, and all have the capability of carrying their early speed all the way to wire.

RACE 6 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 A. P. Indian (ML 4-1)
# 7 Masochistic (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Joking (ML 15-1) and # 6 Lord Nelson (ML 5-2)

Among the questions to which I do not know the answer: Why is The BC Sprint six furlongs, while The BC Fillies & Mares Sprint seven furlongs?  Be that as it may, A. P. Indian and Masochistic appear to be the two standouts in this field, and I don't see a compelling reason to choose between the two for the prime spot on our tickets.

Among those that will be breaking from the gate, Mind Your Biscuits looks to be the one that will be running best late; and while it most likely will be far too late, I think Mind Your Biscuits status as the sole legitimate closer in the field, coupled with what are sure to be astronomical odds, means that it's worth taking a flyer on him as a backup selection.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Obviously (Ire) (ML 6-1)

B's

# 12 Om (ML 12-1)
# 14 Celestine (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Mongolian Saturday (ML 12-1)
# 4 Home of The Brave (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Washington DC (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Suedois (Fr) (ML 10-1); but don't bring in # 15 Lady Shipman (ML 12-1) to take his place; rather, # 16 Green Mask (ML 15-1) will draw in off The Also Eligible List and run in this event

One of the drawbacks to having The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is that there is no legitimate turf sprint; for while the charge down the hill is visually stunning and unquestionably exciting, it's a far different race from your typical five-to-six furlong speed duel on the grass that one usually thinks of when this division is considered.  So I always feel somewhat sorry for those connections who have legitimate turf sprinters on the flats who now have to hope that their chargers will be able to negotiate a racing surface far different from what they're used.

Okay, editorial comment aside, looking at this race I think Om and Obviously (Ire), the Place and Show finishers behind Vyjack in the City of Hope Mile last time out, should both benefit from the move from the flats to the downhill turf course.  I give the edge to Obviously, as the early speed that he's been flashing on the flat routes should be of great benefit as he returns to the hillside course.

Celestine, competing for the first time on some California grass, has demonstrated the early speed running style in turf routes that typically translates into good performances down the hill.  Mongolian Saturday is to be respected as the defending champ of the event; but Mongolian Saturday has visited the Winner's Circle only one time since that contest, and that one time was again sprinting five and a half furlongs at Keeneland.

Home of The Brave (Ire) and Washington DC (Ire), a pair of Irish breds with American influenced names, are certainly talented enough to win at this level; the question now being how they will handle the charge down the hill.  Look for Home of The Brave early and Washington DC late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 12 with 8 with 5,7 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,10,12 with 1,3,7,8 with 5,7 with 2,12,14 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7,9 with 8 with 5,7 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 12 with 2,4,10 with 5,7 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 12 with 8 with 1 with 2 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 12 with 8 with 5,7 with 3,4,8 $3.00

Total: $70.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo