Saturday, November 19, 2016

11/19/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

The Bob Hope is today's featured race at Del Mar; and, who knows, perhaps the field of juveniles for that event includes the winner of the 2017 Kentucky Derby.  But we won't be looking at that contest here, carded, as it was, outside of the final four events on the program.  But one of the races we will be analyzing is a different main track contest for two year olds, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Liam the Charmer (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Gangster (ML 12-1)
# 3 Reflected Star (ML 3-1)

C's

# 4 Sawyer's Hill (ML 8-1)
# 6 Willing to Travel (ML 8-1)

Scratch The Also Eligibles: # 10 Aotearoa (ML 6-1); # 11 Terrys Tom Cat (ML 5-1); and # 12 Professor Berns (ML 20-1)

Liam the Charmer gets some class relief after closing well in each of his last two starts against stakes competition.  Gangster could be quickest here in what looks to be a relatively paceless field.  Reflected Star took the Place at this class level last time out.

Sawyer's Hill will be tough here if he can return to his form from two years back.  Willing to Travel takes a step down the class ladder after taking the Show against classier competition two starts back.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Match Play (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 A. P. Zona (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bobby Abu Dhabi (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Honor and Courage (ML 3-1)
# 3 Adorned (ML 10-1)

These are the juveniles, with a third of the nine horse field being first time starters.  Match Play, trained by Bob Baffert, is one of those debut runners, and has been training well for this contest.  A. P. Zonea wanted no part of two turns last time out, and could improve with the reduction in real estate.

Bobby Abu Dhabi, another first time starter, has been working well for Trainer Peter Miller.  Honor and Courage took the Show at this class level last time out.  Adorned, the third of the first timers here, was sired by Uncle Mo, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 8 - OC 100k/C - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Little Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Play Hard to Get (ML 12-1)
# 8 Wanstead Gardens (ML 5-1)
# 9 Perfectly Majestic (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Papacoolpapacool (ML 6-1)

Scratch The Also Eligible, # 10 Clever Royal (ML 12-1)

Little Curlin looks to be an excellent candidate to steal this one on the front end; or, barring that, to be in perfect position to get first run on the leader.  Itsinthepost (Fr) was a clear winner against lesser last time out, and appears to be in love with today's distance, getting his picture taken three of the four times that he's tried it.

Play Hard to Get took the Place at this class level last time out.  Wanstead Gardens was victorious the last time that he competed outside of Graded Stakes company.  Perfectly Majestic gets some class relief, though it's fair to wonder how he'll do stretching out.  Papacoolpapacool has taken the Show at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Cecile's Diamond (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Motutapu (ML 5-2)
# 7 Cosmic Beauty (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Warren's Honey Bee (ML 7-2)

Scratch The Also Eligibles, # 13 Aloha Spirit (ML 3-1) and # 14 Royal Red (ML 20-1)

Cecile's Diamond drops in class after showing good early speed in each of her last two starts.  Motutapu missed graduation by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Cosmic Beauty flashed early quickness in her debut last time out.  Warren's Honey Bee has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in three of her last four races.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 8 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1,8,9 with 1,4,7,8,9 with 4,7,11 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 8 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3 with 4,7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 3 with 11 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 4,7 with 5 $1.00

Total: $75.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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