7/27/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 10 Fashionably Fast (Final Odds 2.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Great Return (2.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bing Crosby - # 3 Cistron (4.80) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 A Thousand Dreams (2.30*) - "A" Selection

Not exactly stellar handicapping on the part of yours truly Saturday, as the three winners in the sequence that were part of my main play also happened to be the three Post Time Favorites that crossed first under the wire.  Worse still, one of those Post Time Favorites to get their picture taken came in a leg where I personally used six of the eight runners, while suggesting that those with a larger bankroll go "ALL" in for that contest.  A better allocation of resources certainly could have led to a better result; but instead, Saturday was a day to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 1 / 3 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $142.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/27/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 1 Bing Crosby, a six furlong sprint for runners three years old and upward, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Policy (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 7 Rick's Dream (ML 8-1)
# 10 Fashionably Fast (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Boy Howdy (ML 20-1)
# 2 Mr. Bownstone (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tristram Speaker (ML 6-1)
# 5 Perfect Wager (ML 4-1)
# 6 Clem Labine (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wild Bean (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Ishi (ML 9-2)

Boy Howdy is the only entrant in this Optional Claimer running with the $20k price tag on his head.  For those who note such things, that means that, in addition to being up for sale, Boy Howdy is running for a purse of $35k, rather than the $64k purse for which the other entrants will be competing.

Policy, Place finisher in the I'm Smokin Stakes last time out, looks best here; though Policy may need a race off the eleven month vacation.  Ishi, Show finisher at this class level last time out, could improve going second off the extended layoff.

Rick's Dream could improve with the added distance and the move to state-bred only competition.  Fashionably Fast took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 (F) - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 True To Herself (Ire) (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Great Return (ML 7-2)
# 7 Velvet Queen (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 An Eddie Surprise (ML 8-1)
# 4 Moonless Sky (ML 15-1)
# 5 Vibrance (ML 5-1)
# 6 Invincibella (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 8 Pacific Strike (ML 12-1)
# 9 Salsa Bella (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Mongolian Window (ML 10-1)

Moonless Sky and Mongolian Window are the only two in this Optional Claiming field that are  available for purchase at $40k.  For those who note such things, that means that, in addition to being up for sale, these two are running for a purse of $52k, rather than the $64k purse for which the other entrants will be competing.

True To Herself (Ire) is making her North American debut; and while shippers to the US for Trainer Richard Mandella typically need a race in their new surroundings, True To Herself looks like she'll be good to go on Saturday.

Great Return has done well sprinting over this turf course in the past, and Great Return's breeding suggests that she'll do just fine with the added distance.  Velvet Queen projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Recruiting Ready (ML 2-1)

B's

# 6 Chief Cicatriz (ML 12-1)
# 8 Jalen Journey (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Desert Law (ML 12-1)
# 3 Cistron (ML 5-2)
# 4 Line Judge (ML 8-1)
# 5 Air Strike (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Calexman (ML 15-1)

Recruiting Ready ships in from the east after taking the Show in the Grade 2 True North at Belmont Park last time out.  Recruiting Ready will be ridden by Jockey Flavien Prat, who has been on board the winner of this event each of the past four years.

Chief Cicatriz, another shipper in this field, could be the speed of the speed.  Jalen Journey took the Place in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Jalen Journey will be running for the first time Saturday for the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.

Air Strike and Cistron filled out the Exacta in the Grade 2 Triple Bend last time out; so, if your budget allows, those are two that you might want to consider including on your main ticket.  However, I ultimately decided that these two just aren't fast enough to keep pace at six furlongs with the three invaders that will be on my main ticket; so I will be using Air Strike and Cistron as backup "C" Selections, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 A Thousand Dreams (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Dolci (ML 10-1)
# 4 Augure (ML 20-1)
# 5 Antigone (ML 6-1)
# 6 French Rose (ML 4-1)
# 9 Lakaya (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Text Dont Call (ML 10-1)
# 8 Billy K (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Imprint (ML 3-1) and # 10 Unwritten (ML 6-1), as well as the Also Eligible, # 11 Olive You More (ML 6-1)

These are juvenile fillies, with half the field being first time starters; while none of the experienced runners have ever competed on the grass.  So if your budget allows, you might want to give strong consideration to just punching the "ALL" button for this leg.

A Thousand Dreams wore the blinkers in her second career start last time out, with less than satisfactory results; perhaps A Thousand Dreams will move up with the hood being removed.  Dolci, Augure, Antigone and Lakaya are the four debut runners in this field; and I'll be using all of them.  French Rose may appreciate the move to the lawn.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 7 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,9,10 with 1,2,7 with 6,7,8 with 3,4,5,6,7,9 $81.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2 with 7 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 7 with 7 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 7 with 1,8 $1.00

Total: $91.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:39 EDT / 4:39 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/20/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 6 Big Returns (Final Odds 2.00*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The San Clemente - # 3 Mucho Unusual (2.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Pure Xena (2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Ronald R (Ire) (13.80) - "A" Selection

In what was the opposite of what I would have predicted prior to the running, I was spot on with my turf picks, getting both my "A" Selections home; while whiffing on the two main track juvenile maiden contests, having neither winner on the big ticket.  Perhaps going forward this meet I'll adjust where I should spread and where I can pinpoint; but that's a matter for future consideration.  As regards Saturday, it was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 3 / 6 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $607.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/20/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Opening weekend at Del Mar!  Sing it, Bing!

The San Diego Handicap and the San Clemente are the two Graded Stakes which grace Saturday's card; and while the San Diego belongs to the early portion of the program, I will be taking a look at the San Clemente below, as well as a pair of juvenile maiden contests, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 One Fast Bro (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 Vegan (Morning Line 5-2)

# 4 Side Street Dave (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Fantasy Game (ML 10-1)

# 5 Cleveland Cat (ML 8-1)

# 6 Big Returns (ML 6-1)

# 7 Club Aspen (ML 6-1)

One Fast Bro, trained by Shelbe Ruiz, looks best of the first timers, and shows a nice gate work on the 15th.  Vegan and Side Street Dave are the two experienced runners in this field.  Vegan has finished in the Trifecta in each of her (yes, her) three career starts; while Side Street Dave took the Place in his debut two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Mucho Unusual (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 12-1)

# 6 Over Emphasize (ML 8-1)

# 8 Stillwater Cove (ML 5-2)

# 9 Maxim Rate (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Seranista (ML 8-1)

# 4 Devils Dance (ML 20-1)

# 5 Apache Princess (ML 8-1)

# 7 Harmless (ML 20-1)

# 10 Kalliniki (ML 20-1)

Mucho Unusual showed the ability to rate last time out, making herself a perfect two-for-two on the turf.  Keeper Ofthe Stars, previously trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has been kicked out of the game without even the pretense of due process, has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in her six race career.  Expect Keeper Ofthe Stars to be speed on the rail in this turf contest.

Over Emphasize, Show finisher in the Grade 3 Honeymoon last time out, could improve with the cutback in distance.  Stillwater Cove, the shipper from the east for Trainer Wesley Ward, is one that I was tempted to leave off the big ticket; but ultimately I decided that Stillwater Cove deserved another chance after the rough trip that she had last time out in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly, where she disappointed as the Post Time Favorite.

Maxim Rate, winner of the Grade 3 Senorita two starts back, may return to form off the freshening.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Save the Story (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Musically (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Gold Included (ML 12-1)

# 2 Hail On Hoofs (ML 20-1)

# 4 She's So Special (ML 4-1)

# 6 Pure Xena (ML 4-1)

# 8 Tacocat (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Golden Melodie (ML 20-1) and # 9 Lazy Daisy (ML 5-1)

Save the Story and Musically both took the Place in separate contests in their respective debuts last time out.  Pure Xena is a debut runner that you might want to consider giving more prominence in your play then I will in mine; as due to budget limits I will be using Pure Xena as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Snazzy Dresser (ML 6-1)

# 4 Foray (ML 5-1)

# 9 Captivate (ML 8-1)

# 10 Overdue (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Factorial (ML 6-1)

# 5 Battle of Memphis (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 6 Cajun Treasure (ML 8-1)

# 7 Erotic (ML 10-1)

# 8 Inscom (ML 8-1)

Interesting to note that any runners in this Optional Claimer leaving the gate with a price tag on their head will be running for a purse $12k less than those not in for a tag.  Anyway, that part of the condition is of no concern in this field, as none of these entrants are entered for a tag.

Ronald R (Ire) is returning from an extended vacation after being claimed last time out.  If Ronald R is ready to roll, I expect that he will be the one running best late.  Conversely, Snazzy Dresser looks to be speed on the rail, and may be the one that they'll have to catch to win.

Foray and Capitave are two more that can be expected to be up on the pace as soon as the gates open; another reason to like Ronald R at the top of the ticket.  Overdue has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 5 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,6,8,9 with 5,7 with 1,3,4,9,10 $75.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 3 with 5 with 3 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,4,5,7,10 with 5 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,2,4,6,8 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 5 with 2,5,6,7,8 $2.50

Total: $85.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:07 EDT / 5:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/19 Indiana Grand All Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Warrior Veterans - # 3 Real Story (Final Odds 3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Indiana General Assembly Distaff - # 12 - Viva Vegas (2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Indiana Oaks - # 5 Street Band (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Indiana Derby - # 11 Mr. Money (0.90*) - "A" Selection

Having the second choice on the wagering board win by open lengths isn't exactly what I had in mind when I went "ALL" in on the $100k Warrior Veterans; but at least it wasn't the Post Time Favorite, # 8 Dot Matrix (1.90*), who wound up getting the Show.  Also, I think hitting the "ALL" button in the opening leg forced me to be more focused in my selections for the other three races in the sequence; and while the results weren't spectacular, Saturday was a day for me to collect rather than contribute.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 10 Math Wizard (5.50) - $342.10 Finish: 3rd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 12 / 5 / 11  which paid $134.85 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $72.85 on my initial $62.00 investment; or approximate odds of 1.175-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/19 Indiana Grand All Stakes Pick Four - Preview

"Never play anything that don't sound right. You might not make any money, but at least you won't get hostile with yourself." - Hoagy Carmichael


Taking my action to the Hoosier State Saturday, as the good people at the Caesars' property in Shelbyville have put together a very fine card surrounding the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Indiana Derby.   So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The All Stakes Pick Four at Indiana Grand.

RACE 6 - The Warrior Veterans $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 All Right (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 1 Lamartine (Brz) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Real Story (ML 5-2)
# 4 Cowboy Culture (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fact Finding (ML 12-1)
# 7 Hello Don Julio (ML 3-1)
# 8 Dot Matrix (ML 4-1)
# 9 Space Mountain (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 6 My Bariley (ML 30-1)

As you can see, I couldn't make head nor tail out of this contest.  All Right, who missed victory in the Grade 2 Wise Dan last time out by just a neck, looks best here; though Dot Matrix, the winner of last year's running of this event, is another the deserves consideration as top selection.

Lamartine (Brz) seems last time out to have returned to the form that he had shown as a Group 1 winner in his native Brazil; and Lamartine's poor finish behind Dot Matrix two starts back can be excused due to a rather poor trip.  Hello Don Julio looks to be classiest here, though Hello Don Julio probably needs more distance to show his best.

Real Story was within a length of Catholic Boy at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie last time out.  Space Mountain may be able to out kick Dot Matrix late.  Again, this one looks in my opinion to be wide open; so rather than racking my brain more than it can stand, I'm just going "ALL" out in this leg.

RACE 7 - (F) The Indiana General Assembly Distaff $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Limari (ML 1-1)

B's

# 10 Lovely Loyree (ML 10-1)
# 12 Viva Vegas (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 She's Pretty Lucky (ML 15-1)
# 3 Strawberry Tequila (ML 15-1)
# 4 Coco Channel (ML 15-1)
# 6 Hanalei Moon (ML 8-1)
# 7 Sweet N Wicked (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lexington Grace (ML 20-1)
# 13 Spinning Top (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 5 Unbridled Class (ML 12-1); # 9 Youngest Daughter (ML 30-1); and # 11 Tough Irma (ML 30-1)

The Brad Cox trained Limari showed an added dimension last time out, as the typically front running filly came from off the pace to take the Show in the Grade 3 Mint Julep.  Viva Vegas, Show finisher in the Grade 3 Gallorette last time out, is another that can win from anywhere on the course; though it does seem that Viva Vegas settles for too many minor awards.

Lovely Loyree has won each of the last two running of this event; and while it seems very unlikely that Lovely Loyree can make it three in a row, each of her other two victories also seems very unlikely.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Indiana Oaks (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Street Band (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Kim K (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Drinking Dixie (ML 15-1)
# 3 Shacklette (ML 20-1)
# 4 Sundaysatthebeach (ML 8-1)
# 6 Blessed Again (ML 12-1)
# 7 High Regard (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sally's Curtain (ML 30-1)
# 9 Chocolate Kisses (ML 5-1)
# 10 With Dignity (ML 8-1)
# 12 Sweet Diane (ML 8-1)
# 13 Hallawallah (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 11 Bye Bye J (ML 20-1) and # 14 Cloud Charmer (ML 30-1)

Street Band, winner of the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks two starts back, looks classiest here, and hopefully will get a much cleaner trip than the one that she received in the Kentucky Oaks.  The Peter Miller trained Kim K made a nice move forward last time out, and seems capable of handling this level of competition.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - The Indiana Derby (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 11 Mr. Money (ML 6-5)

B's

# 10 Math Wizard (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Roiland (ML 12-1)
# 2 Hero Tiger (ML 30-1)
# 3 Gray Magician (ML 8-1)
# 4 Market Garden (ML 30-1)
# 5 Frolic More (ML 15-1)
# 6 Alwaysmining (ML 8-1)
# 7 Eskenforit (ML 20-1)
# 8 Chess Chief (ML 12-1)
# 9 Long Range Toddy (ML 12-1)

Mr. Money, trained by Brad Calhoun, looks best here, and if Mr. Money runs to the level of either of his last two efforts, he should be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is over.  Math Wizard, Place finisher in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last time out, might benefit from the reduction in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 2 with 5 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 2,10,12 with 1,5 with 10,11 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,13 with 5 with 11 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,12,13 with 11 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 $4.50

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:54 EDT / 4:54 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/6/19 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Belmont Oaks - # 4 Concrete Rose (Final Odds 2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The John A Nerud - # 9 Promises Fulfilled (0.65*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Belmont Derby - # 6 Henley's Joy (20.80) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Suburban - # 2 Preservationist (3.95) - "B" Selection

Hopefully those of you who read my preview did as I said and not as I did and went as deep as humanly possible in the third leg of this sequence; because despite using nearly half the field on the big ticket, I managed to miss the winner of the Belmont Derby (and, for that matter, the Place finisher, # 8 Social Paranoia (16.00) as well); and not having the Belmont Derby winner is what made Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Graded Stakes Pick Four sequence of  4 / 9 / 6 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $719.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/6/19 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview

It's Stars & Stripes Day at Belmont Park; and less than a month after the tremendous card that accompanied the third leg of the Triple Crown, the good people at NYRA have put together another program chock full of Graded Stakes.  As there are three Pick Fours available for wagering on Saturday, allow me to make it clear up front that I will be analyzing the sequence Races 7 through 10, inclusive.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The All Graded Stakes Pick Four at The Championship Track, Belmont Park.

RACE 7 - (F) The Belmont Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 9 Cambier Parc (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Olendon (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 4 Concrete Rose (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (ML 5-2)

# 3 Coral Beach (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 5 Cafe Americano (ML 12-1)

# 6 Just Wonderful (ML 6-1)

# 7 Jodie (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Dyna Passer (ML 30-1)

Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose have taken turns defeating Morning Line Favorite Newspaperofrecord (Ire); whom, you'll notice, I will not be using on the big ticket.  Speed is certainly a great asset on Belmont's inner turf course; but I'm not convinced that Newspaperofrecord will be quickest here; and I think ten furlongs might be a bridge too far for her to cross.

Olendon (Fr), Group 1 Stakes placed in her native France, looks well meant here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field, including Newspaperofrecord.

RACE 8 - The John A Nerud (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Nicodemus (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Warrior's Club (ML 10-1)

# 7 Do Share (ML 7-2)

# 9 Promises Fulfilled (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 New York Central (ML 8-1)

# 5 Killybegs Captain (ML 15-1)

# 6 Bon Raison (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Majestic Dunhill (ML 15-1) and # 8 Pat On the Back (ML 4-1)

Nicodemus closed well in the Grade 2 True North Stakes last time out, and the extra half furlong may be enough to get Nicodemus into the winner's circle Saturday.  Warrior's Club certainly fits well here with the contenders, and he will be a nice price; but Warrior's Club seems to settle for too many minor awards.

Do Share would be my top choice if this race was being run at Aqueduct rather than Belmont Park.  Promises Fulfilled is certainly classiest here; but Promises Fulfilled is going to be challenged to grab the early lead Saturday; and it's fair be against Promises Fulfilled in any contest where he's not leading the field out of the gate.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Belmont Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 13 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Moon Colony (ML 12-1)

# 4 English Bee (ML 30-1)

# 9 Cape of Good Hope (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 11 Blenheim Palace (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 14 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Standard Deviation (ML 15-1)

# 3 Seismic Wave (ML 5-1)

# 5 Plus Que Parfait (ML 15-1)

# 6 Henley's Joy (ML 12-1)

# 7 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 12-1)

# 8 Social Paranoia (ML 8-1)

# 10 Spinoff (ML 15-1)

# 12 Demarchelier (GB) (ML 6-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 He's No Lemon (ML 30-1)

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be a wide open affair, and I suggest that you go as deep as your budget will allow.  On the other hand, if Morning Line Favorite and Chad Brown trainee Digital Age (Ire) repeats his last out effort in winning the Grade 2 American Turf, then going deep in this leg could look like a rather foolish decision in retrospect.  But this is the way I'll be playing it, with six on the big ticket, and the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - The Suburban (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Marconi (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Catholic Boy (ML 9-5)

# 2 Preservationist (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Rocketry (ML 8-1)

# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 8-1)

# 6 Mead Hall (ML 50-1)

# 7 Wooderson (ML 12-1)

# 8 Carlino (ML 20-1)

# 9 Realm (ML 20-1)

# 10 Cordmaker (ML 12-1)

# 11 Pavel (ML 8-1)

Marconi, winner of the Grade 2 Brooklyn last time out, shouldn't be disadvantaged by the cutback in distance.  Catholic Boy returns to the dirt; and while he has proven that he can win at this level on either surface, I think Catholic Boy would be better served by staying on the lawn.

Preservationist is taking a pretty big step up the class ladder; but I think that Preservationist has shown that he has the talent to compete at this class level.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 13 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,9 with 3,4,7,9 with 1,4,9,11,13,14 with 1,2,4 $108.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 4 with 13 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,5,6 with 13 with 4 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10,12 with 4 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 13 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $4.00

Total: $121.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:32 EDT / 1:32 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/19 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 5 Elsie's Kid (Final Odds 0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Victor S Myers - # 3 Mister Banjoman (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Wings Locked Up (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Shanghai Go Go (3.50) - "B" Selection

Playing against Morning Line Favorite # 1 Sonic Boom (Final Odds 5.40) in the penultimate leg of the sequence proved to be the right move; and, as can be seen by the final odds, a move shared by a goodly number of the wagering public.  Early speed proved key on both the main track and the turf, as the winners of the three contests that were not the Post Time Favorite did so by leading the field from gate to wire.  Finally, the two Maiden Claiming events were both won by runners who had competed last time out against non-Claiming Maidens; an angle that just never grows old.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Seabeescando (11.30) - $135.55 Finish: 4th
# 6 Dreamin of Peace (1.50*) - $33.00 Finish: 2nd
# 7 Kris Me Deadly (4.20) - $75.65 Finish: 7th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 3 / 6 / 3  which paid $65.25 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $2.75 on my initial $62.50 investment; which makes for the ridiculously low approximate odds of 0.04-1.  But be that as it may, profit is profit; and winning sure as sunshine beats losing.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/19 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - The Declaration of Independence

Happy Birthday USA!  Here's hoping that all Americans, as well as all freedom-loving people everywhere throughout the world, spend the day enjoying life and liberty while pursuing happiness; and an even greater hope that all those in search of freedom shall eventually find it.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Elsie's Kid (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 2 Extra Gorgeous (ML 3-1)
# 6 Paddy's Choice (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Frosty Flirt (ML 4-1)
# 3 Cam's Force (ML 15-1)
# 4 Turquoise Trail (ML 8-1)
# 7 B L Breezy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Tashiara (ML 5-1)

Elsie's Kid drops in for a tag for the first time after taking the Show against non-Claiming Maidens last time out.  Paddy's Choice took the Place at this class level in her debut two starts back.

Extra Gorgeous took the Place at this class level while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in her debut last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - [S] The Victor S Myers $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Dame Plata (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Mister Banjoman (ML 9-2)
# 6 El Tizar (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Son of Poseidon (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sax Zim Boss (ML 8-1)
# 7 Astronaut Oscar (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 5 Harry the Hitman (ML 6-1)

Dame Plata took the Show against state bred Allowance company last time out; and so far that has been the only time in Dame Plata's career where he didn't get his picture taken after the race was over.  Mister Banjoman didn't much care for the sloppy going last time out, anymore than he appreciated his one time try on the turf.  Cross out those two starts and Mister Banjoman is less than a length away from being a career four-for-four.

El Tizar ships in after winning his debut at Churchill Downs last time out by daylight.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - OC 35k B - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 It Makes Sense (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Burgameister (ML 9-2)
# 6 Wings Locked Up (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Sonic Boom (ML 5-2)
# 2 P Club (ML 8-1)
# 5 She's No Drama (ML 12-1)
# 7 Izzy the Warrior (ML 6-1)

As I write this, # 8 Creative Art (ML 10-1), who was entered for the main track only, has yet to be scratched.  However, this play is written with the belief that Creative Art will not run today.  Should Creative Art run, that means that this contest was taken off the turf; in which case, not only should Creative Art be used in your play, he should also probably be a single.

The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 35k N4L is that runners who have yet to win two races in 2019 can be entered here without fear of being claimed.  Note for the record that, with the scratch of Creative Art, P Club is the only one in this field that will be running with a price tag on their head.

It Makes Sense enters today's contest with a two race winning streak, and It Makes Sense's breeding suggests that the surface switch should be no problem.  Burgameister and Wings Locked Up filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out.

I may later regret leaving Sonic Boom off the big ticket, as he is classiest here.  But Sonic Boom, making his first start of 2019, is most likely using this contest just to get back in racing shape; as five furlongs really isn't Sonic Boom's ideal distance.  Also of concern is that Sonic Boom hasn't visited the winner's circle since winning the Grade 3 American Derby back in July 2017.  So while Sonic Boom certainly has the talent to defeat these on his best day, I'm going to relegate him to being a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - Md $10k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Dreamin of Peace (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Seabeescando (ML 5-1)
# 3 Shanghai Go Go (ML 8-1)
# 7 Kiss Me Deadly (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Vivace (ML 6-1)
# 4 Chick Magnet (ML 10-1)
# 5 Proper Cross (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 8 Hunky Monkey (ML 12-1)

Dreamin of Peace is moving up in class off his last start; but Dreamin of Peace has taken the Place against more expensive stock in the past.  Seabeecando took the Place at this class level last time out.

Shanghai Go Go might be quickest here.  Kiss Me Deadly ships in from Florida and joins the barn of Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who tends to do well with such.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 3 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6 with 1,3,6 with 3,4,6 with 2,3,6,7 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8 with 1 with 3 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,4,7 with 3 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 1,2,5,7 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 3 with 1,4,5 $1.50

Total: $62.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo