Race 6 - # 5 Scene Queen (Final Odds 4.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Californian - # 1 Clubhouse Ride (6.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The American Oaks - # 8 Room Service (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 My Jealous (5.30) - "C" Selection
It was a different track and a different surface, but in the end it didn't matter; as Clubhouse Ride wins The Grade 1 Californian for the second year in a row, fighting through on the rail to win by a head, becoming just the fourth horse in history to win The Californian twice. As for our Pick Four play, it was # 2 Fury Kapcori (0.50*) or nothing; and we wound up with nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who were fortunate enough to have the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $457.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 31, 2014
5/31/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the last day of May and, well, that's pretty much all I've got in the way of introduction. So let's just get right to Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Exclusive Girl (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Scene Queen (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Ann's Gold (ML 8-1)
# 6 Woodys Wharf (ML 4-1)
# 9 Broadway Bella (ML 12-1)
# 11 Lamazone (ML 9-2)
Exclusive Girl runs for a tag for the first time since her debut. The only time Exclusive Girl has competed at today's distance on the grass she took the Place. Scene Queen has proven herself to be competitive at this level; perhaps today she takes the next step forward.
Ann's Gold's two best races (as measured by her Beyer Speed Figures) were also her only two races routing on the grass. Woodys Wharf runs for a tag for the first time in her career. Woodys Warf also gets a rider change to Kent Desormeaux, who's been holding a hot hand of late.
Broadway Bella was sired by English Channel, which makes it highly probably that she'll take a big step forward in her first turf route. Lamazone has finished behind Scene Queen in her last two turf routes; but Lamazone may be cycling up to a peak effort.
RACE 7 - The Californian (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fury Kapcori (ML 4-5)
C’s
None
# 3 Sky Kingdom (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Can Fury Kapcori keep the streak going without Rafael Bejarano on his back? That's the only real question I see here, because if Fury Kapcori runs back to any of his last four victories he'll be getting his picture taken again today. # 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 9-2) won this event last year, and while that's normally a big plus in my book, keep in mind that last year this race was run at a different track over a different surface. Also note that Clubhouse Ride has not won since. So while I strongly recommend using Clubhouse Ride in your vertical wagers (you know, the "-cta" bets) I don't see him crossing the finish line first today.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nashoba's Gold (ML 9-5)
# 8 Room Service (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Little Journey (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Diversy Harbor (ML 4-1)
Nashoba's Gold misses by half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for her career, with all of those races having been run over this turf course. She has the best Tomlinson Ratings in this field for both turf and the distance, and she has already bested several of these in her prior outings. Room Service has seen her Beyers only go up with each of her career starts; if that streak continues, she could be an easy winner today.
Little Journey (Fr) was just a neck behind Istanford last time out in the Englewood Stakes; Istanford went on from that contest to win the Arlington Classic. Diversy Harbor was able to cross the wire in front of Nashoba's Gold in the China Doll back in March; perhaps the change in rider to Mike Smith will allow her to duplicate that effort today.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Senator Bob (ML 4-1)
# 6 Newfound Gold (ML 5-2)
# 10 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
C's
# 5 Lovmeister (ML 8-1)
# 7 My Jealous (ML 4-1)
Senator Bob just missed by half a length last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure right at par for this class level. Newfound Gold is a re-claim by Trainer Tim Yakteen and has finished in the Exacta in each of his last four starts; though the $4.5k drop in price after spending a month in the barn does raise an eyebrow. Carbonite closed fast to win by a nose last time out. The pace scenario in this one looks like it shapes up for a repeat effort today.
Lovmeister did not fare well the last time he tried unrestricted claimers; but that was upstate, on a different surface. Note that Trainer Bill Spawr does quite well placing those who won last time out. My Jealous couldn't make the lead last time out, and as a result threw in the towel; but a return to either of his prior two efforts puts him right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. Since he's our only single, our strategy basically boils down to trying to collect more than we would if we simply put it all on Fury Kapcori to Win. Of course, if Fury Kapcori doesn't win, we don't cash; it's that simple. So with that, here are the tickets that I'll be playing today:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 2 with 2,8 with 2,6,10 $12.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,9,11 with 2 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,5,6,7,10 $60.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Exclusive Girl (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Scene Queen (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Ann's Gold (ML 8-1)
# 6 Woodys Wharf (ML 4-1)
# 9 Broadway Bella (ML 12-1)
# 11 Lamazone (ML 9-2)
Exclusive Girl runs for a tag for the first time since her debut. The only time Exclusive Girl has competed at today's distance on the grass she took the Place. Scene Queen has proven herself to be competitive at this level; perhaps today she takes the next step forward.
Ann's Gold's two best races (as measured by her Beyer Speed Figures) were also her only two races routing on the grass. Woodys Wharf runs for a tag for the first time in her career. Woodys Warf also gets a rider change to Kent Desormeaux, who's been holding a hot hand of late.
Broadway Bella was sired by English Channel, which makes it highly probably that she'll take a big step forward in her first turf route. Lamazone has finished behind Scene Queen in her last two turf routes; but Lamazone may be cycling up to a peak effort.
RACE 7 - The Californian (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fury Kapcori (ML 4-5)
C’s
None
# 3 Sky Kingdom (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Can Fury Kapcori keep the streak going without Rafael Bejarano on his back? That's the only real question I see here, because if Fury Kapcori runs back to any of his last four victories he'll be getting his picture taken again today. # 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 9-2) won this event last year, and while that's normally a big plus in my book, keep in mind that last year this race was run at a different track over a different surface. Also note that Clubhouse Ride has not won since. So while I strongly recommend using Clubhouse Ride in your vertical wagers (you know, the "-cta" bets) I don't see him crossing the finish line first today.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nashoba's Gold (ML 9-5)
# 8 Room Service (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Little Journey (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Diversy Harbor (ML 4-1)
Nashoba's Gold misses by half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for her career, with all of those races having been run over this turf course. She has the best Tomlinson Ratings in this field for both turf and the distance, and she has already bested several of these in her prior outings. Room Service has seen her Beyers only go up with each of her career starts; if that streak continues, she could be an easy winner today.
Little Journey (Fr) was just a neck behind Istanford last time out in the Englewood Stakes; Istanford went on from that contest to win the Arlington Classic. Diversy Harbor was able to cross the wire in front of Nashoba's Gold in the China Doll back in March; perhaps the change in rider to Mike Smith will allow her to duplicate that effort today.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Senator Bob (ML 4-1)
# 6 Newfound Gold (ML 5-2)
# 10 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
C's
# 5 Lovmeister (ML 8-1)
# 7 My Jealous (ML 4-1)
Senator Bob just missed by half a length last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure right at par for this class level. Newfound Gold is a re-claim by Trainer Tim Yakteen and has finished in the Exacta in each of his last four starts; though the $4.5k drop in price after spending a month in the barn does raise an eyebrow. Carbonite closed fast to win by a nose last time out. The pace scenario in this one looks like it shapes up for a repeat effort today.
Lovmeister did not fare well the last time he tried unrestricted claimers; but that was upstate, on a different surface. Note that Trainer Bill Spawr does quite well placing those who won last time out. My Jealous couldn't make the lead last time out, and as a result threw in the towel; but a return to either of his prior two efforts puts him right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. Since he's our only single, our strategy basically boils down to trying to collect more than we would if we simply put it all on Fury Kapcori to Win. Of course, if Fury Kapcori doesn't win, we don't cash; it's that simple. So with that, here are the tickets that I'll be playing today:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 2 with 2,8 with 2,6,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,9,11 with 2 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,5,6,7,10 $60.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, May 26, 2014
5/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Stormin Lute (Final Odds 2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Gamely - # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (13.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Say's Who (4.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Gratification (2.70*) - "A" Selection
We we right to play against # 8 Emollient (3.10) in The Gamely, though it sure didn't look like it through most of the race, especially as she led the pack in the stretch right up to the wire where she just got caught and lost by a nose. However, unfortunately for us, the horse that caught Emollient wasn't any of the three selections we had made, as # 7 Parranda (2.20*), # 3 Stormy Lucy (5.00), and # 2 Emotional Kitten (4.50) finished third, fourth, and eighth, respectively.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 7 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $659.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Gamely - # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (13.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Say's Who (4.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Gratification (2.70*) - "A" Selection
We we right to play against # 8 Emollient (3.10) in The Gamely, though it sure didn't look like it through most of the race, especially as she led the pack in the stretch right up to the wire where she just got caught and lost by a nose. However, unfortunately for us, the horse that caught Emollient wasn't any of the three selections we had made, as # 7 Parranda (2.20*), # 3 Stormy Lucy (5.00), and # 2 Emotional Kitten (4.50) finished third, fourth, and eighth, respectively.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 7 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $659.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day. I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it. We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison
Hopefully all of you are in the midst of a joyous, thankful, and triumphant Memorial Day weekend. Like many horseplayers throughout the county, our plans experienced a sudden change when The Rainbow Six @ Gulfstream Park got hit one day prior to mandatory payout day. So with that we shift gears and shift coasts, turning our attention to the west as we take a run at the Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Stormin Lute (Morning Line 9-5)
# 2 Mavericks Gun (ML 9-5)
C's
None
Stormin Lute graduated in his second attempt last year after just missing in his debut, leaving the gate in both races as the Post Time favorite. He was claimed in that victory away from Bob Baffert to the Peter Miller barn for $20k. In addition to his change of stable Stormin Lute also received an eight month vacation. While the combination of a long layoff coupled with a big jump in class (as Stormin Lute is not just going against winners for the first time, but is also going up in claiming price) could be concerns, those concerns are easily addressed, as Trainer Peter Miller does quite well with those coming back from an extended holiday, while the large margin of victory Stormin Lute enjoyed in his graduation suggests that he was simply priced to sell. The only question I see here is will Stormin Lute's form transfer from the synthetic to real dirt.
Mavericks Gun drops down on the class ladder, moving from Starter Allowance N2L company to running once again with a price tag on his head. Mavericks Gun's last two Beyer Speed Figures are tops in the field, and if he runs back to those numbers he'll be the one crossing the wire first.
RACE 7 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Stormy Lucy (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Emotional Kitten (ML 7-2)
# 7 Parranda (ML 7-2)
Best wishes for a speedy recovery to Jockey Rafael Bejarano, out of the hospital and back home recuperating from the injuries he sustained a couple of weeks ago. I mention Bejarano here as he was brought to mind while looking at this contest's past performances, which show that fully one third of this field enjoyed their last victory with Bejarano on their back.
# 1 Customer Base (ML 8-1) defeated Stormy Lucy over this turf course at today's distance back in December in the Grade 3 Bobby Frankel. But that was by just a nose, with Customer Base running the best race of her life. Customer Base had a rough trip her last time out, and the presence of Jockey Mike Smith here rather than on Emollient certainly gives one pause before dismissing her chances; but even if Customer Base were to repeat that career best effort again today, she would still be unlikely to cross the wire first.
Emotional Kitten missed victory by just a length last time out in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in a career best effort. Should she take another step forward she could be the clear winner in this one, and that seven furlong move she made in her last Keeneland workout suggests that she's coming into this one in top shape.
Stormy Lucy has beaten most of these in her last two, including Emotional Kitten and Emollient; so any play against Stormy Lucy must make the case that she will regress while the others advance. And while such is always possible in horse racing (or any other athletic competition, for that matter) to project such strikes us more as wishcasting rather than handicapping. Yes, Stormy Lucy could lose today; hence the use of backups in this leg. But barring a complete reversal of form, Stormy Lucy is clearly the one to beat.
Parranda has had no problem finding the Winner's Circle, getting her picture taken after five of her last seven events. But all those contests were against much weaker competition; indeed, the one time that Parranda tried Grade 2 company she found herself a well beaten sixth. But she did take a nice step forward last time out in her first race for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer; and she is three-for-five at today's distance. I personally would demand better odds than the Morning Line of 7-2 to play her in the Win Pool; but she does rate an upset chance, especially when you factor in that she's one of the few here who has yet to lose to Stormy Lucy.
# 8 Emollient (ML 3-1) has twice competed over the Santa Anita turf course, and has finished out of the money both times. Emollient has twice competed at today's distance on the grass, and has finished out of the money both times. Emollient has competed three times on the synthetic surface at Keeneland, including her last time out. The two prior times she competed at Keeneland she finished out of the money in her next race. Two starts back Emollient was a well beaten fourth behind Stormy Lucy. Mike Smith, who has ridden Emollient in each of her last eight races, will today be riding Customer Base instead. I may be playing with fire by leaving her off the ticket, but Emollient has more of the look of one who needs everything to break just right in order to win, rather than the look of a Morning Line Favorite.
RACE 8 - [S](F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dutch Chocolate (ML 8-1)
# 7 Say's Who (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Afleet Echo (ML 7-2)
# 11 Swiss Perfection (ML 6-1)
# 12 Bellanza (ML 12-1)
Dutch Chocolate's sire gets approximately 14% winners from his debuting get, while Trainer David Hofmans gets approximately 13% Winners (with a profit) from his first time runners. Say's Who took the Show her last time out at today's level, and should appreciate the turnback in distance.
Maidens under Trainer Mark Glatt don't typically advance in their second start; but Afleet Echo's trip in his debut (in which he left the gate as the Post Time Favorite) was bad enough to warrant a second chance. Swiss Perfection has flashed early speed in each of her prior two starts, and the one she took the Place behind in her debut came back to win again. With the blinkers added today, she may be the one the rest of the field has to run down.
Tribal Rule, Bellanza's sire, gets approximately 14% winners from his debuting offspring. Bellanza has been working well, and possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in the field. Add in that she draws the furthest outside post (the ideal position for a first time starter) and she could be worth a shot in the Win Pool if she goes to post at her Morning Line odds or higher.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Gratification (ML 4-1)
# 7 Pouncerounddaclock (ML 10-1)
# 8 Comealongwithme (ML 9-2)
# 9 Humming Beethoven (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 See Through (ML 6-1)
# 11 Bird In Love (ML 6-1)
Gratification just missed graduating in the Florida slop in her debut; she projects to be at least that good on the grass. Pouncerounddaclock is from a sire that produces approximately 14% winners from his debuting get, and runs for a trainer (John Sadler) who wins with approximately 26% of his first time runners. The fact that Rosie Napravnik has signed on for the mount must be seen as a plus.
If you remove her one dirt effort, Comealongwithme has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of her starts. Humming Beethoven looked solid in her return from a fifteen month layoff; a similar effort today puts her right in the mix.
See Through took the Show in her debut charging down the hill; but that was back in October, so the long layoff is a concern. Bird In Love (GB) seems to have regressed since her debut back in January; but the addition of blinkers and the presence of Jockey Mike Smith may revive her spirits.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 3,7 with 4,7,8,9 $16.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 2,7 with 3,7 with 4,7,8,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 2,11,12 with 4,7,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 3,7 with 3,11 $4.00
Total: $48.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:03 EDT / 4:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 24, 2014
5/24/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Big Cazanova (Arg) (Final Odds 5.60) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Charles Whittingham - # 6 Fire With Fire (7.30) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Warren's Assassin (56.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Durango Flier (3.60) - "A" Selection
The sequence began and ended with the best possible results for us, as both the first and last leg were won by the higher priced of our two "A" selections. Unfortunately the middle two races of the sequence featured the worst possible results for us, as we had no part of either of those two winners.
As we had hoped, the Charles Whittingham was won by a horse coming from the back of the pack to defeat the front running # 7 Segway (3.30). Unfortunately that horse was Fire With Fire, whom I had figured to be among the early pacesetters; but he was wisely ridden by Jockey Tyler Baze, who held Fire With Fire back in sixth for the first three quarters and fifth at the one mile marker before letting him loose to charge home a neck in front of Segway and a half length in front of our single "A" selection in the event, # 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (1.70*). Of course all that became moot when Warren's Assassin took Race 8, lighting up the tote board like a Christmas tree.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 1 / 11 were rewarded with a $7,538.75 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Charles Whittingham - # 6 Fire With Fire (7.30) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Warren's Assassin (56.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Durango Flier (3.60) - "A" Selection
The sequence began and ended with the best possible results for us, as both the first and last leg were won by the higher priced of our two "A" selections. Unfortunately the middle two races of the sequence featured the worst possible results for us, as we had no part of either of those two winners.
As we had hoped, the Charles Whittingham was won by a horse coming from the back of the pack to defeat the front running # 7 Segway (3.30). Unfortunately that horse was Fire With Fire, whom I had figured to be among the early pacesetters; but he was wisely ridden by Jockey Tyler Baze, who held Fire With Fire back in sixth for the first three quarters and fifth at the one mile marker before letting him loose to charge home a neck in front of Segway and a half length in front of our single "A" selection in the event, # 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (1.70*). Of course all that became moot when Warren's Assassin took Race 8, lighting up the tote board like a Christmas tree.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 1 / 11 were rewarded with a $7,538.75 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/24/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"For love of country they accepted death." - James A. Garfield
It's the start of Memorial Day weekend here in the U.S.A., a time when we celebrate the freedoms that we have in this country while commemorating those who paid the ultimate price to help make it so. Hopefully this weekend will be a joyous one for each of you as you engage in those activities which you most enjoy; and, Good Lord willing, hopefully the selections below will help to make it a profitable one as well.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Big Cazanova (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 9 Yard Line (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 4 J Serino (ML 8-1)
Since the first leg of this sequence is on dirt, this seems as good a place as any to mention to those who may have missed it that Santa Anita will be changing the composition of its main track in July after the close of the current meet. Beginning this Fall, the main track at Santa Anita will be composed of a single-source material: El Segundo Sand (currently the surface is a mixture of several different natural soils). Update your spreadsheets accordingly.
Yard Line has taken the Place at this level is all three of his career starts, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in each of those races that exceeds par for this class level. So is Yard Line a hanger? While possible, I think it's more likely that Yard Line has simply had the misfortune to go up against some very stiff competition, certainly as far as Chitu and Rprettyboyfloyd (two of the three who have defeated Yard Line) are concerned.
J Serino took a big step forward his last time out, which not so coincidentally was his first time trying two turns. Big Cazanova (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in South America; indeed, if not for a DQ he would be a Graded Stakes winner south of the border. Judging by his Tomlinson Ratings, Big Cazanova should also improve with the surface switch from turf to dirt. The question now is whether or not Big Cazanova is going all out to win after thirteen tries, or has he been conditioned to settle for a minor award.
# 3 Midnight Storm (ML 7-2) should take a step forward with the added distance; but even a sizeable step forward probably won't be enough to win against this field. # 8 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Baffert; and while all such must be respected, the fact that several in this field have already come close to or exceeded speed figure par for this level makes it most unlikely that a debuting runner will be the one to get his picture taken at the end.
RACE 7 - The Charles Whittingham Handicap (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Irish Surf (ML 20-1)
# 8 Joelito (ML 9-2)
I decided to take a stand against the likely pacesetters in this contest, which is why I've left # 6 Fire With Fire (ML 4-1) and # 7 Segway (ML 7-2) off my tickets. I believe that those two, along with # 1 Soi Phet (ML 15-1) and # 3 Bright Thought (ML 3-1) will be battling up front early; so much so that even on a turf course as hard and dry as this one the edge will be with those who do their best running late.
Quick Casablanca (Chi) took the Grade 3 Last Tycoon by a head his last time out, and should improve with the added distance. Jockey Elvis Trujillo has been holding the hot hand since coming out west; perhaps that'll be enough to give Irish Surf the added lengths that he needs. Joelito has displayed the running style that I'm looking for here is each of his three career victories. However, Joelito has also found himself in several contests (including his last) where he was too close to the pace early and spent the rest of the race getting further and further behind.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Classic Journey (ML 4-1)
# 6 Incredible Journey (ML 9-2)
# 8 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-5)
C's
# 3 Winninginfashion (ML 5-1)
Classic Journey took the Place at this level her last time out in her first try over this main track. Brandon's Princess has taken the Place in each of her three contests since graduating; two of those three against more expensive stock than that which she faces today.
Incredible Journey drops in class, switches riders, changes surfaces, and cuts back in distance. This is pretty much the equivalent of wiping the slate clean and starting over; and since Incredible Journey hasn't won since July, 2012, perhaps it's just what she needs.
Winninginfashion was oh-for-seven in her career, all against $20k Maiden Claimers. Winninginfashion was then entered against California bred non-claiming maidens, and won by daylight at odds of 4-1 (she had gone to post at odds of over 14-1 in her prior start against the aforementioned $20k Md Clm). I figure it might be a good idea to include her on our tickets, just in case.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 It Is Living Water (ML 5-2)
# 11 Durango Flier (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 6 Tuff Storm (ML 5-1)
# 8 Pyrotechnics (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Heat (ML 9-2)
It's the start of Memorial Day weekend here in the U.S.A., a time when we celebrate the freedoms that we have in this country while commemorating those who paid the ultimate price to help make it so. Hopefully this weekend will be a joyous one for each of you as you engage in those activities which you most enjoy; and, Good Lord willing, hopefully the selections below will help to make it a profitable one as well.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Big Cazanova (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 9 Yard Line (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 4 J Serino (ML 8-1)
Since the first leg of this sequence is on dirt, this seems as good a place as any to mention to those who may have missed it that Santa Anita will be changing the composition of its main track in July after the close of the current meet. Beginning this Fall, the main track at Santa Anita will be composed of a single-source material: El Segundo Sand (currently the surface is a mixture of several different natural soils). Update your spreadsheets accordingly.
Yard Line has taken the Place at this level is all three of his career starts, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in each of those races that exceeds par for this class level. So is Yard Line a hanger? While possible, I think it's more likely that Yard Line has simply had the misfortune to go up against some very stiff competition, certainly as far as Chitu and Rprettyboyfloyd (two of the three who have defeated Yard Line) are concerned.
J Serino took a big step forward his last time out, which not so coincidentally was his first time trying two turns. Big Cazanova (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in South America; indeed, if not for a DQ he would be a Graded Stakes winner south of the border. Judging by his Tomlinson Ratings, Big Cazanova should also improve with the surface switch from turf to dirt. The question now is whether or not Big Cazanova is going all out to win after thirteen tries, or has he been conditioned to settle for a minor award.
# 3 Midnight Storm (ML 7-2) should take a step forward with the added distance; but even a sizeable step forward probably won't be enough to win against this field. # 8 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Baffert; and while all such must be respected, the fact that several in this field have already come close to or exceeded speed figure par for this level makes it most unlikely that a debuting runner will be the one to get his picture taken at the end.
RACE 7 - The Charles Whittingham Handicap (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Irish Surf (ML 20-1)
# 8 Joelito (ML 9-2)
I decided to take a stand against the likely pacesetters in this contest, which is why I've left # 6 Fire With Fire (ML 4-1) and # 7 Segway (ML 7-2) off my tickets. I believe that those two, along with # 1 Soi Phet (ML 15-1) and # 3 Bright Thought (ML 3-1) will be battling up front early; so much so that even on a turf course as hard and dry as this one the edge will be with those who do their best running late.
Quick Casablanca (Chi) took the Grade 3 Last Tycoon by a head his last time out, and should improve with the added distance. Jockey Elvis Trujillo has been holding the hot hand since coming out west; perhaps that'll be enough to give Irish Surf the added lengths that he needs. Joelito has displayed the running style that I'm looking for here is each of his three career victories. However, Joelito has also found himself in several contests (including his last) where he was too close to the pace early and spent the rest of the race getting further and further behind.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Classic Journey (ML 4-1)
# 6 Incredible Journey (ML 9-2)
# 8 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-5)
C's
# 3 Winninginfashion (ML 5-1)
Classic Journey took the Place at this level her last time out in her first try over this main track. Brandon's Princess has taken the Place in each of her three contests since graduating; two of those three against more expensive stock than that which she faces today.
Incredible Journey drops in class, switches riders, changes surfaces, and cuts back in distance. This is pretty much the equivalent of wiping the slate clean and starting over; and since Incredible Journey hasn't won since July, 2012, perhaps it's just what she needs.
Winninginfashion was oh-for-seven in her career, all against $20k Maiden Claimers. Winninginfashion was then entered against California bred non-claiming maidens, and won by daylight at odds of 4-1 (she had gone to post at odds of over 14-1 in her prior start against the aforementioned $20k Md Clm). I figure it might be a good idea to include her on our tickets, just in case.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 It Is Living Water (ML 5-2)
# 11 Durango Flier (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 6 Tuff Storm (ML 5-1)
# 8 Pyrotechnics (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Heat (ML 9-2)
It Is Living Water has finished in the money at this level his last three times out. He also owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure and the best career Beyer in this field. Durango Flier was right behind It Is Living Water last time out in what has developed into a key race (that is, a race in which multiple runners have come back to win their next time out).
Tuff Storm can be expected to improve in his second career start after a seven week rest. If you look at just the three career races Pyrotechnics has run that were turf routes, you'll see a pattern of steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures, all at this level of competition. If Pyrotechnics can keep that pattern going, then he just might get his picture taken at the end of this one. Wicked Heat makes his first start off the claim for Trainer Melody Conlon, who moves this son of Unusual Heat back to the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,8 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 3 with 5,11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 6,8,9 $9.00
Total: $38.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 18, 2014
5/18/14 GG R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following, competed Sunday in Race 4 at Golden Gate Fields, an open $20k claimer run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on some California grass. City Chapel (Final Odds 12.00) broke slow, hugged the rail, and had nothing for the drive. He finished fifth in the field of six, over a half dozen lengths behind the winner, Duke of Doom (2.80).
This was City Chapel's first out of the money finish since last December, when he finished fifth at the late Hollywood Park. Prior to that, the last time City Chapel had finished out of the money was back on May 31, 2013. For his efforts today City Chapel earned $400 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings since joining the Trujillo barn to $70,555.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This was City Chapel's first out of the money finish since last December, when he finished fifth at the late Hollywood Park. Prior to that, the last time City Chapel had finished out of the money was back on May 31, 2013. For his efforts today City Chapel earned $400 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings since joining the Trujillo barn to $70,555.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 17, 2014
5/17/14 Pimlico Jackpot Pick Five - Results
Race 8 - The James W Murphy - # 4 Wallyanna (Final Odds 2.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Gallorette Handicap - # 3 Somali Lemonade (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Sir Barton - # 10 Class Leader (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Dixie - # 9 Utley (7.50) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Preakness - # 3 California Chrome (0.50*) - "A" Selection
As was the case yesterday, not much drama today, as we were again knocked out right in the very first leg, and finished with three out of five winners. We went four deep in that first leg, which meant that we had half the field covered; unfortunately it was the wrong half, as not only did we not have that winner in that contest, we didn't have the Place horse, # 8 Open the Bank (25.10) either. So most definitely not a good showing by us, as our three winners are non-singled Post Time Favorites, and we have no part of either of the two non-Favorites that won.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Jackpot Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 10 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a $180.21 payout for their ten cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
And here's where I normally sign off. But here is also as good a place as any to share just a couple of points regarding California Chrome.
As I type this the various speed figures (Beyer, Brisnet, etc.) have yet to be published; likewise for any pace figures. But no matter. I'm sure that over the next three weeks leading up to the Belmont every minutia regarding the Preakness, the Derby, and every other race that California Chrome has ever run will be the subject of intense scrutiny. So the only points I want to share here is that, among all the many other things that a Triple Crown Winner would mean to the sport, it would be nice to see Belmont Park Track Announcer Tom Durkin finally get to call a Triple Crown Winner after so many disappointments. And the second point I want to make at this time is that I hope that California Chrome doesn't have to overcome any unexpected road blocks in order to run in the Belmont Stakes.
What do I mean by the last statement? Well, remember a couple of years back in 2012 when I'll Have Another won the Derby and the Preakness and was heading for the Belmont? Remember how the New York stewards decided that I'll Have Another would not be allowed to wear his nasal strip if he ran in the Belmont Stakes? Or remember the headline back in 2008 saying Big Brown Won't Get Shot of Winstrol Before Belmont Stakes? Now, I have no idea what could possibly happen to California Chrome that would be similar in nature. Perhaps the NYRA stewards could rule that California Chrome can't wear those special shoes that keep his feet so comfy. My point is simply that I hope no such silliness actually comes to pass, and that California Chrome is able to compete in the Belmont under the same terms and conditions that he ran in the Preakness and the Derby. And with that I'll sign off.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Gallorette Handicap - # 3 Somali Lemonade (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Sir Barton - # 10 Class Leader (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Dixie - # 9 Utley (7.50) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Preakness - # 3 California Chrome (0.50*) - "A" Selection
As was the case yesterday, not much drama today, as we were again knocked out right in the very first leg, and finished with three out of five winners. We went four deep in that first leg, which meant that we had half the field covered; unfortunately it was the wrong half, as not only did we not have that winner in that contest, we didn't have the Place horse, # 8 Open the Bank (25.10) either. So most definitely not a good showing by us, as our three winners are non-singled Post Time Favorites, and we have no part of either of the two non-Favorites that won.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Jackpot Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 10 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a $180.21 payout for their ten cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
And here's where I normally sign off. But here is also as good a place as any to share just a couple of points regarding California Chrome.
As I type this the various speed figures (Beyer, Brisnet, etc.) have yet to be published; likewise for any pace figures. But no matter. I'm sure that over the next three weeks leading up to the Belmont every minutia regarding the Preakness, the Derby, and every other race that California Chrome has ever run will be the subject of intense scrutiny. So the only points I want to share here is that, among all the many other things that a Triple Crown Winner would mean to the sport, it would be nice to see Belmont Park Track Announcer Tom Durkin finally get to call a Triple Crown Winner after so many disappointments. And the second point I want to make at this time is that I hope that California Chrome doesn't have to overcome any unexpected road blocks in order to run in the Belmont Stakes.
What do I mean by the last statement? Well, remember a couple of years back in 2012 when I'll Have Another won the Derby and the Preakness and was heading for the Belmont? Remember how the New York stewards decided that I'll Have Another would not be allowed to wear his nasal strip if he ran in the Belmont Stakes? Or remember the headline back in 2008 saying Big Brown Won't Get Shot of Winstrol Before Belmont Stakes? Now, I have no idea what could possibly happen to California Chrome that would be similar in nature. Perhaps the NYRA stewards could rule that California Chrome can't wear those special shoes that keep his feet so comfy. My point is simply that I hope no such silliness actually comes to pass, and that California Chrome is able to compete in the Belmont under the same terms and conditions that he ran in the Preakness and the Derby. And with that I'll sign off.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/17/14 Pimlico Jackpot Pick Five - Preview
It's Preakness Stakes Day @ Pimlico, featuring the second leg of the Thoroughbred Triple Crown. And that's pretty much all I have in the way of introduction; so let's just get to it.
RACE 8 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Camden Street (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Thunder Strike (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Special Envoy (ML 3-1)
# 3 Sonny Inspired (ML 8-1)
Were I a braver man, I would single Thunder Strike (GB) here. Thunder Strike has been competing overseas against much stiffer competition than that which he faces today, as evidenced by his career turf earnings (work it out on a per-race basis and you'll see it's best in the field). The Jockey/Trainer tandem of John Velazquez and Graham Motion definitely adds to the appeal. Distance may be a problem, and Thunder Strike's "effort" in his North American debut is nothing to be proud of; therefore the inclusion of the others on the ticket. But if Thunder Strike goes to Post at odds equal to or greater than his Morning Line of 8-1, I would definitely recommend grabbing some action in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Gallorette Handicap (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 7-2)
# 7 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 3-1)
# 10 Watsdachances (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Embarr (ML 15-1)
# 6 Lady Ten (ML 10-1)
With Brenda's Way scratching today, Somali Lemonade could get a front running trip similar to the one he enjoyed last time out. Should he improve off that effort (as those running for Trainer Michael Matz tend to do their second time off a layoff) he could be getting his picture taken before many in this field get started. Strathnaver (GB) and Watsdachances (Ire) certainly have the back class to win at this level, but they may be compromised by the projected pace in this event.
Embarr is the local hero, with four wins in five tries over this turf course. Lady Ten could challenge Somali Lemonade on the front end; it'll certainly be interesting to see if her from transfers from the opposite coast.
# 5 Master Lightning (ML 6-1)
# 2 Six Spot (ML 5-1)
So that leaves us with the newcomers, or new shooters, if you will. And several of them do have a resume that makes them worth considering. For example, # 8 Social Inclusion (ML 5-1) has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field. # 7 Kid Cruz (ML 20-1) is second only to California Chrome in this field in career victories. More importantly, Kid Cruz's stakes victories came from closing deep, and there is certainly enough early pace in today's field to make a deep closer a very attractive commodity. It's very easy to imagine Kid Cruz winning today's Preakness with a trip similar to the one Revolutionary took in winning yesterday's Pimlico Special. But Kid Cruz has yet to display that ability against the level of competition that he'll be facing today; while Social Inclusion's huge Beyer Speed Figure must be discounted, earned as it was over a very speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track.
# 4 Ring Weekend (ML 20-1) and # 5 Bayern (ML 10-1) are another pair of newcomers worth considering. Indeed, someone whose opinion of horseflesh I have tremendous respect for (and not just because he's right more often than I am, as was proved yet again this past Derby weekend at Green Valley Ranch) has suggested that I would be well served including these two in my Preakness play.
And he most certainly has a point. Ring Weekend, in the last race in which he really tried, was the convincing winner of The Tampa Bay Derby with a Beyer Speed Figure that compares quite well with the one earned by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. Bayern has yet to put up a Beyer below ninety, and his only loss came after a two month layoff. Note also (as pointed out in the DRF PPs notes by Brian Mulligan) that Bayern's May 12 workout at Churchill Downs was in company with multiple Graded Stakes winner Drill, and it was Bayern who posted the faster time. Finally, Ring Weekend and Bayern are conditioned by a pair of trainers (Graham Motion and Bob Baffert, respectively) whose resumes speak for themselves.
RACE 8 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Camden Street (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Thunder Strike (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Special Envoy (ML 3-1)
# 3 Sonny Inspired (ML 8-1)
Were I a braver man, I would single Thunder Strike (GB) here. Thunder Strike has been competing overseas against much stiffer competition than that which he faces today, as evidenced by his career turf earnings (work it out on a per-race basis and you'll see it's best in the field). The Jockey/Trainer tandem of John Velazquez and Graham Motion definitely adds to the appeal. Distance may be a problem, and Thunder Strike's "effort" in his North American debut is nothing to be proud of; therefore the inclusion of the others on the ticket. But if Thunder Strike goes to Post at odds equal to or greater than his Morning Line of 8-1, I would definitely recommend grabbing some action in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Gallorette Handicap (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 7-2)
# 7 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 3-1)
# 10 Watsdachances (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Embarr (ML 15-1)
# 6 Lady Ten (ML 10-1)
With Brenda's Way scratching today, Somali Lemonade could get a front running trip similar to the one he enjoyed last time out. Should he improve off that effort (as those running for Trainer Michael Matz tend to do their second time off a layoff) he could be getting his picture taken before many in this field get started. Strathnaver (GB) and Watsdachances (Ire) certainly have the back class to win at this level, but they may be compromised by the projected pace in this event.
Embarr is the local hero, with four wins in five tries over this turf course. Lady Ten could challenge Somali Lemonade on the front end; it'll certainly be interesting to see if her from transfers from the opposite coast.
RACE 10 - The Sir Barton $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Master Lightning (ML 6-1)
# 10 Class Leader (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Six Spot (ML 5-1)
# 3 Life in Shambles (ML 6-1)
# 6 Starry Moon (ML 8-1)
Had he not scratched, # 11 Charge Now (ML 9-2) would have been considered an "A" contender.
Master Lightning gets some much needed class relief here, and the Johnny V / Todd Pletcher combo must be respected. Class Leader is another that takes a step down the class ladder, in his case after holding his form (as evidenced by the Beyer that he earned) against Graded Stakes competition.
All three "C" contenders have been showing steady improvement in their respective Beyers, evidence of the maturation you expect from horses at this age. While I don't see any as the equal of the two that I selected as top contenders, I respect the possibility that any of these could take a big step forward here today.
Master Lightning gets some much needed class relief here, and the Johnny V / Todd Pletcher combo must be respected. Class Leader is another that takes a step down the class ladder, in his case after holding his form (as evidenced by the Beyer that he earned) against Graded Stakes competition.
All three "C" contenders have been showing steady improvement in their respective Beyers, evidence of the maturation you expect from horses at this age. While I don't see any as the equal of the two that I selected as top contenders, I respect the possibility that any of these could take a big step forward here today.
RACE 11 - The Dixie (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Up With the Birds (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 6 Hey Leroy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Chamois (ML 6-1)
Up With the Birds is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. Up With Birds is also averaging over $100k in earnings for each turf start. The only concern here is Up With Birds' late running style, as this projects on paper to be a pretty paceless affair; hence the inclusion of the two "C" contenders.
Up With the Birds is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. Up With Birds is also averaging over $100k in earnings for each turf start. The only concern here is Up With Birds' late running style, as this projects on paper to be a pretty paceless affair; hence the inclusion of the two "C" contenders.
RACE 12 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 California Chrome (ML 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Dynamic Impact (ML 12-1)
Whatever one may think of California Chrome's effort in the Kentucky Derby from a historic context, I think it was pretty clear that he was the dominant horse in this year's field. So while it's not impossible for # 2 General a Rod (ML 15-1) or # 10 Ride On Curlin (ML 10-1) to win today, I don't think one can practically make one of those two a selection today.
So that leaves us with the newcomers, or new shooters, if you will. And several of them do have a resume that makes them worth considering. For example, # 8 Social Inclusion (ML 5-1) has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field. # 7 Kid Cruz (ML 20-1) is second only to California Chrome in this field in career victories. More importantly, Kid Cruz's stakes victories came from closing deep, and there is certainly enough early pace in today's field to make a deep closer a very attractive commodity. It's very easy to imagine Kid Cruz winning today's Preakness with a trip similar to the one Revolutionary took in winning yesterday's Pimlico Special. But Kid Cruz has yet to display that ability against the level of competition that he'll be facing today; while Social Inclusion's huge Beyer Speed Figure must be discounted, earned as it was over a very speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track.
# 4 Ring Weekend (ML 20-1) and # 5 Bayern (ML 10-1) are another pair of newcomers worth considering. Indeed, someone whose opinion of horseflesh I have tremendous respect for (and not just because he's right more often than I am, as was proved yet again this past Derby weekend at Green Valley Ranch) has suggested that I would be well served including these two in my Preakness play.
And he most certainly has a point. Ring Weekend, in the last race in which he really tried, was the convincing winner of The Tampa Bay Derby with a Beyer Speed Figure that compares quite well with the one earned by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. Bayern has yet to put up a Beyer below ninety, and his only loss came after a two month layoff. Note also (as pointed out in the DRF PPs notes by Brian Mulligan) that Bayern's May 12 workout at Churchill Downs was in company with multiple Graded Stakes winner Drill, and it was Bayern who posted the faster time. Finally, Ring Weekend and Bayern are conditioned by a pair of trainers (Graham Motion and Bob Baffert, respectively) whose resumes speak for themselves.
But in the end I just couldn't pull the trigger on either Ring Weekend or Bayern. My decision was based upon my belief that neither has shown themselves to be the equal of California Chrome in their prior races, and I don't think either is going to take the necessary step forward today to reach the wire before he does. In addition, I don't think either Ring Weekend or Bayern is going to be flattered by the pace setup in today's contest, as I think the most likely scenario is that these two will be fighting up front early and tiring late. So should I be wrong about Ring Weekend and/or Bayern we'll just have to mark it up as one more time that this colleague of mine was right and I was wrong.
So why then Dynamic Impact? Why include a horse who needed five tries to break his maiden, and then just barely won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby? Good question. In fact, I'll toss in another good question: Why include a horse on the rail who shouldn't be on the lead early, and will therefore have to fight through traffic in the stretch just to get to the wire? To be honest, there are a lot of negatives surrounding Dynamic Impact; and I certainly don't see him as an equal of California Chrome. But Dynamic Impact's Beyer Speed Figure pattern, a list of steady continuous improvement culminating in what is the best last out Beyer in this field, makes him a must use. Indeed, it's a pattern that reminds me a great deal of the one sported by War Emblem over a decade ago, when he went from winning The Illinois Derby to crossing the wire first in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
So how to play it? Fortunately the Jackpot aspect of today's Pick Five is not in play, as today is a mandatory payout day for the carryover; so we don't need to worry about having multiple winning tickets (some who regularly follow this blog may say we never need to worry about having multiple winning tickets, but I think that's just a little bit unkind). Ideally, I would have a ticket with California Chrome and all other contenders several more times than just once; but I am counting on having my house air conditioned this Summer, and the power company has suggested that paying the electric bill that was due back in March would go a long way towards making that happen. Anyway, here are the tickets that I'll be putting in today:
All A Entries
$0.40 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 3 $4.80
All Contenders
$0.10 P5: 1,2,3,6 with 2,3,6,7,10 with 2,3,5,6,10 with 6,7,8 with 1,3 $60.00
And just in case:
All A Entries With ALL in The Preakness
$0.10 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 $12.00
Total: $76.80
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:19 EDT / 12:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So why then Dynamic Impact? Why include a horse who needed five tries to break his maiden, and then just barely won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby? Good question. In fact, I'll toss in another good question: Why include a horse on the rail who shouldn't be on the lead early, and will therefore have to fight through traffic in the stretch just to get to the wire? To be honest, there are a lot of negatives surrounding Dynamic Impact; and I certainly don't see him as an equal of California Chrome. But Dynamic Impact's Beyer Speed Figure pattern, a list of steady continuous improvement culminating in what is the best last out Beyer in this field, makes him a must use. Indeed, it's a pattern that reminds me a great deal of the one sported by War Emblem over a decade ago, when he went from winning The Illinois Derby to crossing the wire first in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
So how to play it? Fortunately the Jackpot aspect of today's Pick Five is not in play, as today is a mandatory payout day for the carryover; so we don't need to worry about having multiple winning tickets (some who regularly follow this blog may say we never need to worry about having multiple winning tickets, but I think that's just a little bit unkind). Ideally, I would have a ticket with California Chrome and all other contenders several more times than just once; but I am counting on having my house air conditioned this Summer, and the power company has suggested that paying the electric bill that was due back in March would go a long way towards making that happen. Anyway, here are the tickets that I'll be putting in today:
All A Entries
$0.40 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 3 $4.80
$0.10 P5: 1,2,3,6 with 2,3,6,7,10 with 2,3,5,6,10 with 6,7,8 with 1,3 $60.00
All A Entries With ALL in The Preakness
$0.10 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 $12.00
Total: $76.80
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:19 EDT / 12:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 16, 2014
5/16/14 Pimlico Jackpot Pick Five - Results
Race 8 - #10 South Andros (Final Odds 6.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint - # 8 Ben's Cat (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Black-Eyed Susan - # 4 Stopchargingmaria (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Miss Preakness - # 4 Miss Behavior (5.00) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Pimlico Special - # 6 Revolutionary (2.20*) - "A" Selection
As mentioned in the preview, Races 8 and 9 were moved off the grass to the main track, which was labeled "Good" at that time. Approximately a minute before Post for The Miss Preakness the announcement was made that the main track had been upgraded to "Fast", although the above linked chart (at least for now) still has it as "Good".
Our day was over early as our play died right with the very first leg, as we had no part of South Andros, who was fifth choice on the board in a field of seven. While the point was moot, our decision to go eight deep in The Black-Eyed Susan would have looked a lot smarter had # 10 Vero Amore (15.30) held on 'til the wire instead of losing by a neck. And Miss Behavior, winner of The Miss Preakness by nearly two lengths over # 1 Stormy Novel (24.20) was nowhere to be found on our ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Jackpot Pick Five sequence of 10 / 8 / 4 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a $209.24 payout for their ten cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint - # 8 Ben's Cat (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Black-Eyed Susan - # 4 Stopchargingmaria (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Miss Preakness - # 4 Miss Behavior (5.00) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Pimlico Special - # 6 Revolutionary (2.20*) - "A" Selection
As mentioned in the preview, Races 8 and 9 were moved off the grass to the main track, which was labeled "Good" at that time. Approximately a minute before Post for The Miss Preakness the announcement was made that the main track had been upgraded to "Fast", although the above linked chart (at least for now) still has it as "Good".
Our day was over early as our play died right with the very first leg, as we had no part of South Andros, who was fifth choice on the board in a field of seven. While the point was moot, our decision to go eight deep in The Black-Eyed Susan would have looked a lot smarter had # 10 Vero Amore (15.30) held on 'til the wire instead of losing by a neck. And Miss Behavior, winner of The Miss Preakness by nearly two lengths over # 1 Stormy Novel (24.20) was nowhere to be found on our ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Jackpot Pick Five sequence of 10 / 8 / 4 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a $209.24 payout for their ten cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/16/14 Pimlico Jackpot Pick Five - Preview
“Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other.” – Walter Elliot
Persevere we must, as we continue to battle on, looking for new and creative methods to identify contenders, find value plays, and, most important of all, stay three steps ahead of the bill collectors. It's Preakness weekend in Maryland, and Friday's card is full of action, including The Black-Eyed Susan, The Pimlico Special, and the Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge (note that, due to the large number of scratches, the wager on the challenge has been cancelled, though the challenge itself remains). Friday's card is also expected to be full of rain; exactly how much remains to be seen, but it could be heavy; so don't be surprised if some of the turf events are moved to the main track. EDIT - The rains came with a vengeance; all turf events have been moved to the main track.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1A Seaside (Morning Line 12-1)
# 7 Perique (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF
This is the finale of the four Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge races (the others being Races 2, 4, and 6).
Perique took the Show at this level over this track last time out. Perique also seems better suited to dirt rather than turf. Seaside is three-for-four in her career when competing on an off track.
RACE 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Great Attack (ML 7-2)
# 2 Smash and Grab (ML 15-1)
# 8 Ben's Cat (ML 7-5)
C’s
None
EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF
Ben's Cat, winner of The Jim McKay Turf Sprint in 2011 and 2013, prepped for this event last year by winning The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Last month Ben's Cat won The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Incidentally, that marked the fifth time that Ben's Cat has won The Mister Diz Stakes, including the last time that it was run in August at Laurel Park in 2010 (since then The Mister Diz has been held in April at Pimlico).
Great Attack certainly has the back-class to compete here, and the softer footing from the rains may be just what his old hoofs need; but the gap in works from April 5 to May 3 for a horse returning from a six month vacation does raise an eyebrow. Smash and Grab could be quickest off the mark in the slop.
RACE 10 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 America (ML 8-1)
# 3 Shanon Nicole (ML 6-1)
# 4 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2)
# 5 Euphrosyne (ML 4-1)
# 6 Arethusa (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sloane Square (ML 5-1)
# 9 Fortune Pearl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Vero Amore (ML 15-1)
C’s
None
This one has the smell of chaos, as only one entrant (Stopchargingmaria) has a career best Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of the Beyer Par for this class level. America has been showing steady improvement and working well; she just may take a big step forward today. Draw a line through Shanon Nicole's effort in The Bourbonette Oaks, and respect the Jockey/Trainer duo of Mike Smith with Michael Maker. Stopchargingmaria is the only two-time Graded Stakes winner in the field; though it's worth noting that she has yet to win as a three year old.
Euphrosyne should appreciate not having to face Sugar Shock yet again. Arethusa has the best Tomlinson Ratings in the field for both Distance and Wet surfaces; if the pace should all fall apart, she could be the one charging late. If the pace doesn't fall apart, the Todd Pletcher trained Sloane Square could be the one that leads the pack from gate to wire; though it's worth noting that Johnny V has jumped off Sloane Square's back to ride America for Trainer Bill Mott.
Fortune Pearl is the only entrant with a win over the Pimlico main track, and, like Arethusa, should be gaining ground late. Vero Amore has been in the Exacta both times that she's competed on an off track, and she was not embarrassed when competing against the boys two starts back.
RACE 11 - (F) The Miss Preakness $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Stormy Novel (ML 15-1)
# 8 Jojo Warrior (ML 5-2)
# 9 Our Lesmis (ML 5-1)
C’s
Persevere we must, as we continue to battle on, looking for new and creative methods to identify contenders, find value plays, and, most important of all, stay three steps ahead of the bill collectors. It's Preakness weekend in Maryland, and Friday's card is full of action, including The Black-Eyed Susan, The Pimlico Special, and the Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge (note that, due to the large number of scratches, the wager on the challenge has been cancelled, though the challenge itself remains). Friday's card is also expected to be full of rain; exactly how much remains to be seen, but it could be heavy; so don't be surprised if some of the turf events are moved to the main track. EDIT - The rains came with a vengeance; all turf events have been moved to the main track.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1A Seaside (Morning Line 12-1)
# 7 Perique (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF
This is the finale of the four Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge races (the others being Races 2, 4, and 6).
Perique took the Show at this level over this track last time out. Perique also seems better suited to dirt rather than turf. Seaside is three-for-four in her career when competing on an off track.
RACE 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Great Attack (ML 7-2)
# 2 Smash and Grab (ML 15-1)
# 8 Ben's Cat (ML 7-5)
C’s
None
EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF
Ben's Cat, winner of The Jim McKay Turf Sprint in 2011 and 2013, prepped for this event last year by winning The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Last month Ben's Cat won The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Incidentally, that marked the fifth time that Ben's Cat has won The Mister Diz Stakes, including the last time that it was run in August at Laurel Park in 2010 (since then The Mister Diz has been held in April at Pimlico).
Great Attack certainly has the back-class to compete here, and the softer footing from the rains may be just what his old hoofs need; but the gap in works from April 5 to May 3 for a horse returning from a six month vacation does raise an eyebrow. Smash and Grab could be quickest off the mark in the slop.
RACE 10 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 America (ML 8-1)
# 3 Shanon Nicole (ML 6-1)
# 4 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2)
# 5 Euphrosyne (ML 4-1)
# 6 Arethusa (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sloane Square (ML 5-1)
# 9 Fortune Pearl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Vero Amore (ML 15-1)
C’s
None
This one has the smell of chaos, as only one entrant (Stopchargingmaria) has a career best Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of the Beyer Par for this class level. America has been showing steady improvement and working well; she just may take a big step forward today. Draw a line through Shanon Nicole's effort in The Bourbonette Oaks, and respect the Jockey/Trainer duo of Mike Smith with Michael Maker. Stopchargingmaria is the only two-time Graded Stakes winner in the field; though it's worth noting that she has yet to win as a three year old.
Euphrosyne should appreciate not having to face Sugar Shock yet again. Arethusa has the best Tomlinson Ratings in the field for both Distance and Wet surfaces; if the pace should all fall apart, she could be the one charging late. If the pace doesn't fall apart, the Todd Pletcher trained Sloane Square could be the one that leads the pack from gate to wire; though it's worth noting that Johnny V has jumped off Sloane Square's back to ride America for Trainer Bill Mott.
Fortune Pearl is the only entrant with a win over the Pimlico main track, and, like Arethusa, should be gaining ground late. Vero Amore has been in the Exacta both times that she's competed on an off track, and she was not embarrassed when competing against the boys two starts back.
RACE 11 - (F) The Miss Preakness $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Stormy Novel (ML 15-1)
# 8 Jojo Warrior (ML 5-2)
# 9 Our Lesmis (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Stormy Novel was quick on the synthetic in The Bourbonette Oaks; that should carry over to the main track. Tea Time's last effort, a return after an extended vacation on a surface she did not enjoy, can be forgiven; but she looks like she needs the lead early to win, and I don't see her getting that early lead today. Tepin may be better suited to longer. Jojo Warrior takes off the hood, so don't expect her on the front end early as she was in the Eight Belles; rather, expect her to rate as she did two starts back. Our Lesmis is a perfect two-for-two for her career, and comes into this one with the best last-out Beyer (earned, incidentally, over an off track). This could be a big day for Jockey Frankie Pennington.
Stormy Novel was quick on the synthetic in The Bourbonette Oaks; that should carry over to the main track. Tea Time's last effort, a return after an extended vacation on a surface she did not enjoy, can be forgiven; but she looks like she needs the lead early to win, and I don't see her getting that early lead today. Tepin may be better suited to longer. Jojo Warrior takes off the hood, so don't expect her on the front end early as she was in the Eight Belles; rather, expect her to rate as she did two starts back. Our Lesmis is a perfect two-for-two for her career, and comes into this one with the best last-out Beyer (earned, incidentally, over an off track). This could be a big day for Jockey Frankie Pennington.
RACE 12 - The Pimlico Special (Grade 3) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Moreno (ML 7-2)
# 5 Carve (ML 5-1)
# 6 Revolutionary (ML 5-2)
# 7 Major King (ML 50-1)
# 5 Carve (ML 5-1)
# 6 Revolutionary (ML 5-2)
# 7 Major King (ML 50-1)
C’s
None
None
Moreno should be the speed of the speed here. Moreno also has the field best Tomlinson Ratings for both Distance and Wet surfaces. Carve has run well for Trainer Brad Cox. Revolutionary's form looks much better if you toss out the effort in The Donn Handicap, run over a Gulfstream Park track over which it was just too difficult to close. Major King (Kor) has no chance on paper, and looks like he absolutely does not belong in this field. So why put him on the ticket? Because there had to be some reason why someone thought it was a good idea to enter a horse bred in Korea and sired by a Brazilian stallion in a Graded Stakes race a month after the horse was beaten by forty lengths.
OK, that's the analysis. It's a jackpot and it's just a dime, so just throw everything on one ticket:
All A Entries
$0.10 P5: 1,7 with 1,2,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 1,8,9 with 3,5,6,7 $57.60
Total: $57.60
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
OK, that's the analysis. It's a jackpot and it's just a dime, so just throw everything on one ticket:
All A Entries
$0.10 P5: 1,7 with 1,2,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 1,8,9 with 3,5,6,7 $57.60
Total: $57.60
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 10, 2014
5/10/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Thermal Nermal (Final Odds 4.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Lazaro Barrera - # 7 Top Fortitude (30.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Yes She's Unusual (6.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Classy Ava (1.80) - "A" Selection
Kobe's Back (0.70*) didn't break well in today's Laz Barrera, perhaps still feeling the psychological sting from banging into the starting gate at Aqueduct in The Bay Shore Stakes. But the slow start was no excuse for the three year old colt not winning today, as Kobe's Back had the entire length of the stretch to get by the leaders, but simply could not. My hope is my good buddy T was watching the card today, as a horse with a Morning Line of 6-1 going to post at 30-1, which is what Top Fortitude did today, would have been right up his alley.
While I don't know if my buddy T had Top Fortitude, I do know that handicapper Ellis Starr did, as he gave out Top Fortitude on the SantaAnita.com website (among other places) as a runner that "can post the upset and win this year's Lazaro Barrera Stakes." So congrats to Ellis Starr; and also huge congrats to Jockey Kayla Stra, who picks up her first North American Graded Stakes victory.
As for us, Top Fortitude's upset win leaves us holding a Pick Four ticket with three winners; which, as you all know, pays just as much as a Pick Four ticket with no winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 7 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a $2,520.90 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Lazaro Barrera - # 7 Top Fortitude (30.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Yes She's Unusual (6.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Classy Ava (1.80) - "A" Selection
Kobe's Back (0.70*) didn't break well in today's Laz Barrera, perhaps still feeling the psychological sting from banging into the starting gate at Aqueduct in The Bay Shore Stakes. But the slow start was no excuse for the three year old colt not winning today, as Kobe's Back had the entire length of the stretch to get by the leaders, but simply could not. My hope is my good buddy T was watching the card today, as a horse with a Morning Line of 6-1 going to post at 30-1, which is what Top Fortitude did today, would have been right up his alley.
While I don't know if my buddy T had Top Fortitude, I do know that handicapper Ellis Starr did, as he gave out Top Fortitude on the SantaAnita.com website (among other places) as a runner that "can post the upset and win this year's Lazaro Barrera Stakes." So congrats to Ellis Starr; and also huge congrats to Jockey Kayla Stra, who picks up her first North American Graded Stakes victory.
As for us, Top Fortitude's upset win leaves us holding a Pick Four ticket with three winners; which, as you all know, pays just as much as a Pick Four ticket with no winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 7 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a $2,520.90 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/10/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the first bye week of the Triple Crown, as we all catch our breath from the Kentucky Derby and get ready for next Saturday's Preakness Stakes. So as California Chrome packs his bags in preparation for his Monday flight from Kentucky to Maryland, we turn our attention to The Great Race Place as it soldiers on with its "We're Not In Hollywood Anymore" meet.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Kerrilynn (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Heat Du Jour (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Le Fascinator (ML 7-2)
# 6 Thermal Nermal (ML 7-2)
Kerrilyn won charging down the hill at this level last time out, albeit for a different barn. Heat Du Jour competes for the cheapest price tag of her career, returning from upstate after snagging an Allowance win.
Le Fascinator and Thermal Nermal share the similar history of just missing by a half length of defeating more expensive stock in their only other career contests charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - The Lazaro Barrera (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kobe's Back (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Ferocious (ML 5-2)
Kobe's Back returns from the East after going one-on-one with a starting gate in New York City (note that despite the rough start he still just missed by a half length of catching the winner, Coup de Grace, at the wire). If you exclude those racked up by Tonito M. (ML 6-1) at Camarero Race Track in Puerto Rico, Kobe's Back is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field. The only question I see here is will there be enough pace for Kobe's Back to close into.
Ferocious just misses by a head of being a perfect three-for-three for his career, all three races being over this main track. Ferocious projects to be the major beneficiary of the lack of early speed in this contest, especially with the rail position draw. If Ferocious gets loose on the lead he just may hit the wire before Kobe's Back can shift into high gear.
RACE 8 - [S](F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 Vegas Rules (ML 5-1)
# 8 Yes She's Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Sweet Boss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Copperopolis (ML 4-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)
Vegas Rules is the most experienced runner in this field, not just in terms of total starts but (more importantly) also with regards to races charging down the hill. Vegas Rules' last three Beyer Speed Figures show steady consistent improvement, and she's proven that she can compete at this class level. The only question now is can she find the Winner's Circle.
Yes She's Unusual is the only runner in the field with a win charging down the hill. Note that Heavens Stairway, the one whom Yes She's Unusual tied at the wire in their joint graduation, went on to defeat open company in a Starter Allowance (N2L) next time out.
Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are each making their second career start on the turf. All show better than average turf pedigree (while Queen of the Hill's Turf Tomlinson Rating may not look impressive, her damsire (Relaunch) was a Graded Stakes winner on the grass). Also note the riders for Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are (respectively) Mike Smith, Rafael Bejarano, and Drayden Van Dyke, three of the top four jockeys (by Winning Percentage) on the Santa Anita grass during the Winter Meet (minimum fifty turf starts). In a field that lacks a legitimate standout, the combination of pedigree and rider makes these three worthy of consideration.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dancinginthestreet (ML 5-1)
# 5 Classy Ava (ML 7-2)
# 7 See Through (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 3 Queen Kalyrra (ML 12-1)
# 4 Reverchon (ML 12-1)
Dancinginthestreet has finished in the money all three times that she's competed on a fast dirt track. Classy Ava took the Place at today's distance in her debut, and comes into today's event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. See Through returns to the track for the first time since her October debut. It'll be interesting to see if Mike Smith really does stick around to ride her in the finale.
Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon are a pair of first time starters worth considering based upon the records of their respective trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Tom Proctor) and sires (Giant's Causeway and Divine Park, respectively) with debut runners. Also note the virtually identical gate work for Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon on Cinco de Mayo.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to change up our usual ticket writing format. We'll still put all our A's together for a buck as we normally do using the Crist method; but if Kobe's Back wins the feature, I want to be sure we're covered even if multiple "C" contenders win the other legs. So here are the tickets I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 3 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $12.00
Kobe's Back with all A's and C's
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 with 2,3,4,5,7 $50.00
Ferocious with all A's
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $6.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:37 EDT / 3:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Kerrilynn (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Heat Du Jour (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Le Fascinator (ML 7-2)
# 6 Thermal Nermal (ML 7-2)
Kerrilyn won charging down the hill at this level last time out, albeit for a different barn. Heat Du Jour competes for the cheapest price tag of her career, returning from upstate after snagging an Allowance win.
Le Fascinator and Thermal Nermal share the similar history of just missing by a half length of defeating more expensive stock in their only other career contests charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - The Lazaro Barrera (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kobe's Back (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Ferocious (ML 5-2)
Kobe's Back returns from the East after going one-on-one with a starting gate in New York City (note that despite the rough start he still just missed by a half length of catching the winner, Coup de Grace, at the wire). If you exclude those racked up by Tonito M. (ML 6-1) at Camarero Race Track in Puerto Rico, Kobe's Back is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field. The only question I see here is will there be enough pace for Kobe's Back to close into.
Ferocious just misses by a head of being a perfect three-for-three for his career, all three races being over this main track. Ferocious projects to be the major beneficiary of the lack of early speed in this contest, especially with the rail position draw. If Ferocious gets loose on the lead he just may hit the wire before Kobe's Back can shift into high gear.
RACE 8 - [S](F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 Vegas Rules (ML 5-1)
# 8 Yes She's Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Sweet Boss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Copperopolis (ML 4-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)
Vegas Rules is the most experienced runner in this field, not just in terms of total starts but (more importantly) also with regards to races charging down the hill. Vegas Rules' last three Beyer Speed Figures show steady consistent improvement, and she's proven that she can compete at this class level. The only question now is can she find the Winner's Circle.
Yes She's Unusual is the only runner in the field with a win charging down the hill. Note that Heavens Stairway, the one whom Yes She's Unusual tied at the wire in their joint graduation, went on to defeat open company in a Starter Allowance (N2L) next time out.
Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are each making their second career start on the turf. All show better than average turf pedigree (while Queen of the Hill's Turf Tomlinson Rating may not look impressive, her damsire (Relaunch) was a Graded Stakes winner on the grass). Also note the riders for Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are (respectively) Mike Smith, Rafael Bejarano, and Drayden Van Dyke, three of the top four jockeys (by Winning Percentage) on the Santa Anita grass during the Winter Meet (minimum fifty turf starts). In a field that lacks a legitimate standout, the combination of pedigree and rider makes these three worthy of consideration.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dancinginthestreet (ML 5-1)
# 5 Classy Ava (ML 7-2)
# 7 See Through (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 3 Queen Kalyrra (ML 12-1)
# 4 Reverchon (ML 12-1)
Dancinginthestreet has finished in the money all three times that she's competed on a fast dirt track. Classy Ava took the Place at today's distance in her debut, and comes into today's event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. See Through returns to the track for the first time since her October debut. It'll be interesting to see if Mike Smith really does stick around to ride her in the finale.
Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon are a pair of first time starters worth considering based upon the records of their respective trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Tom Proctor) and sires (Giant's Causeway and Divine Park, respectively) with debut runners. Also note the virtually identical gate work for Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon on Cinco de Mayo.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to change up our usual ticket writing format. We'll still put all our A's together for a buck as we normally do using the Crist method; but if Kobe's Back wins the feature, I want to be sure we're covered even if multiple "C" contenders win the other legs. So here are the tickets I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 3 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 with 2,3,4,5,7 $50.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $6.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:37 EDT / 3:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
5/1/14 GG R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Now that we're back, it's time to get caught up.
For those who may be new to this blog (and for those who just need a brief refresher) we've been following City Chapel, a five year old gelding by Chapel Royal, since August 2012, when he was claimed out of this race by Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo. To be quite honest, we didn't know what to expect from City Chapel at the time; but it was certainly eye-catching to see a horse with one career win in seventeen tries, and total career earnings of $15,861 (an average of less than one thousand dollars per race) get claimed from a race in which he finished fifth at Final Odds of 29.80-1. The combination of high odds and poor finish would seem to indicate that City Chapel was not a good class fit even at the cheap level of that contest ($4k NW2L) and as a gelding he sure wasn't being bought for breeding purposes. But despite all that Trujillo saw something that neither the betting public nor City Chapel's prior connections did, and willingly plunked down the four grand to have City Chapel in his barn.
On Thursday, May 1, City Chapel competed for the twenty-fifth time for Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo; in this most recent contest with a $20k price tag on his head (five times the amount for which he had been purchased by Trujillo) in a race for non-winners of two lifetime, excluding Maiden, Claiming and Starter races for $16k or less (abbreviated as NW2L X). As can be seen from the Equibase chart of the race, City Chapel (Final Odds 1.80) was last at the half but rallied in the stretch on the all-weather track to take the Place in the six furlong contest, two and a half lengths behind the Winner, Mickey Ball (1.50*).
So in the twenty-five races that City Chapel has run for the Trujillo barn, he sports a record of four Wins, nine Seconds, and six Thirds (25 4-9-6). City Chapel's total earnings for Trujillo since being claimed for $4,000, including the $3,600 he brought in for the Place finish on May 1, come to $70,155, approximately $2.8k per race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For those who may be new to this blog (and for those who just need a brief refresher) we've been following City Chapel, a five year old gelding by Chapel Royal, since August 2012, when he was claimed out of this race by Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo. To be quite honest, we didn't know what to expect from City Chapel at the time; but it was certainly eye-catching to see a horse with one career win in seventeen tries, and total career earnings of $15,861 (an average of less than one thousand dollars per race) get claimed from a race in which he finished fifth at Final Odds of 29.80-1. The combination of high odds and poor finish would seem to indicate that City Chapel was not a good class fit even at the cheap level of that contest ($4k NW2L) and as a gelding he sure wasn't being bought for breeding purposes. But despite all that Trujillo saw something that neither the betting public nor City Chapel's prior connections did, and willingly plunked down the four grand to have City Chapel in his barn.
On Thursday, May 1, City Chapel competed for the twenty-fifth time for Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo; in this most recent contest with a $20k price tag on his head (five times the amount for which he had been purchased by Trujillo) in a race for non-winners of two lifetime, excluding Maiden, Claiming and Starter races for $16k or less (abbreviated as NW2L X). As can be seen from the Equibase chart of the race, City Chapel (Final Odds 1.80) was last at the half but rallied in the stretch on the all-weather track to take the Place in the six furlong contest, two and a half lengths behind the Winner, Mickey Ball (1.50*).
So in the twenty-five races that City Chapel has run for the Trujillo barn, he sports a record of four Wins, nine Seconds, and six Thirds (25 4-9-6). City Chapel's total earnings for Trujillo since being claimed for $4,000, including the $3,600 he brought in for the Place finish on May 1, come to $70,155, approximately $2.8k per race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2014 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up
And we're back.
Needless to say, reuniting with the Derby Crew in Vegas was a wonderful experience, one that I could never hope to find the words to properly describe. Not all Crew members, sad to say, were able to make it; but for those of us who were able to attend it was a time well worth having, creating yet more memories to be forever cherished. Good Lord willing, I hope we can keep this going for many more years to come.
As was the case last year, special thanks again this year go to the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for all that they did to add to the enjoyment of our stay. Located in Henderson, Nevada, Green Valley Ranch is the place to go for luxury resort accommodations at value prices. And being off the Strip doesn't mean missing the Strip, as free shuttles run throughout the day between the Strip and the hotel.
But while the rooms and amenities are all Grade A, it's the excellent Race Book that keeps the Derby Crew coming back to Green Valley Ranch year after year. I can say without fear of contradiction that you will not find a better Race and Sports Book in Vegas than the one located at Green Valley Ranch. The joint is run by Bert Cirincione, who has the official title of Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations. Bert, assisted by the ever so capable and oh so lovely Celina, made sure that the Crew did not want for anything at any time during our stay. Indeed, the level of customer service provided by those working inside the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch, from Bert and Celina to the ticket writers and the cocktail waitresses (a special thank you to Sharon!) and even to the custodians (a HUGE thank you to the gentleman who recovered T's cell phone!) is quite simply off the charts, at a level that other facilities can only dream of achieving. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it because it's true: if you're a horseplayer and you're in Vegas, you owe it to yourself to check out the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch. Oh, and be sure to stick around for dinner afterwards at Hanks (and be especially sure to ask for James as your server).
As to the Kentucky Derby itself, to the surprise of virtually no one (except it seems the experts on NBC, the majority of whom picked against him) California Chrome showed himself to be the class of the field, winning the Derby with such ease that Jockey Victor Espinosa did everything but stop and sign autographs in the final strides before crossing the finish line. This marked the second consecutive year that the Post Time Favorite has won the Derby, and the second time in the past three years that the first leg of the Triple Crown went to the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.
If you truly want to appreciate just how dominate California Chrome's victory was, take a look at the Equibase chart of the race and note the following:
- California Chrome was the only horse in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the Superfecta (the top four finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, and 14th (respectively) after the first quarter mile);
- California Chrome and Samraat (!) were the only horses in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the top seven (the top seven finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, 14th, 4th, 13th, and 19th, (respectively) after the first quarter mile;
- California Chrome, Danza, and Samraat were the only horses in the front half of the field at the third quarter spot to finish in the top eight (the top eight finishers in the race were 3rd, 17th, 8th, 11th, 4th, 15th, 18th, and 12th (respectively) after the first six furlongs had been run).
What the above numbers show us is that California Chrome won easily despite going against a race pace shape that favored closers.
Yet all were not impressed with California Chrome's victory. It seems that much has been written about the supposedly slow time in which California Chrome ran the ten furlongs of the Derby Saturday, being as it was only three fifths of a second faster than the amount of time it took for Smarty Jones to win the Run for the Roses ten years earlier. Indeed, if one was to judge their efforts solely by the Beyer Speed Figures that they earned, one would conclude that virtually every runner in this year's Kentucky Derby (with the notable exception of Commanding Curve) bounced off their last race prior to the Derby; an outcome that can probably best described as "unlikely." Much more likely is that the Beyer calculations failed to properly adjust for the track variant (i.e. the strong headwind on the stretch) in play during the running of the race. But no matter; just make a note for yourself to add approximately five-to-seven points to the Beyer Speed Figures for all Derby runners when handicapping their chances in future contests.
Finally, many words have been spent telling us what a poor crop this three year old field was, and how they just don't make horses like they used to. I haven't taken the time to measure exactly how many words have been written to tell us that horses today just don't want to run a mile and a quarter, but I suspect those words this year number about the same as those written last year saying the same thing, when that "poor" crop of Derby entrants that "wanted no part of ten furlongs" just missed by a nose of producing the winner of that Autumn's Breeders' Cup Classic.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Needless to say, reuniting with the Derby Crew in Vegas was a wonderful experience, one that I could never hope to find the words to properly describe. Not all Crew members, sad to say, were able to make it; but for those of us who were able to attend it was a time well worth having, creating yet more memories to be forever cherished. Good Lord willing, I hope we can keep this going for many more years to come.
As was the case last year, special thanks again this year go to the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for all that they did to add to the enjoyment of our stay. Located in Henderson, Nevada, Green Valley Ranch is the place to go for luxury resort accommodations at value prices. And being off the Strip doesn't mean missing the Strip, as free shuttles run throughout the day between the Strip and the hotel.
But while the rooms and amenities are all Grade A, it's the excellent Race Book that keeps the Derby Crew coming back to Green Valley Ranch year after year. I can say without fear of contradiction that you will not find a better Race and Sports Book in Vegas than the one located at Green Valley Ranch. The joint is run by Bert Cirincione, who has the official title of Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations. Bert, assisted by the ever so capable and oh so lovely Celina, made sure that the Crew did not want for anything at any time during our stay. Indeed, the level of customer service provided by those working inside the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch, from Bert and Celina to the ticket writers and the cocktail waitresses (a special thank you to Sharon!) and even to the custodians (a HUGE thank you to the gentleman who recovered T's cell phone!) is quite simply off the charts, at a level that other facilities can only dream of achieving. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it because it's true: if you're a horseplayer and you're in Vegas, you owe it to yourself to check out the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch. Oh, and be sure to stick around for dinner afterwards at Hanks (and be especially sure to ask for James as your server).
As to the Kentucky Derby itself, to the surprise of virtually no one (except it seems the experts on NBC, the majority of whom picked against him) California Chrome showed himself to be the class of the field, winning the Derby with such ease that Jockey Victor Espinosa did everything but stop and sign autographs in the final strides before crossing the finish line. This marked the second consecutive year that the Post Time Favorite has won the Derby, and the second time in the past three years that the first leg of the Triple Crown went to the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.
If you truly want to appreciate just how dominate California Chrome's victory was, take a look at the Equibase chart of the race and note the following:
- California Chrome was the only horse in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the Superfecta (the top four finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, and 14th (respectively) after the first quarter mile);
- California Chrome and Samraat (!) were the only horses in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the top seven (the top seven finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, 14th, 4th, 13th, and 19th, (respectively) after the first quarter mile;
- California Chrome, Danza, and Samraat were the only horses in the front half of the field at the third quarter spot to finish in the top eight (the top eight finishers in the race were 3rd, 17th, 8th, 11th, 4th, 15th, 18th, and 12th (respectively) after the first six furlongs had been run).
What the above numbers show us is that California Chrome won easily despite going against a race pace shape that favored closers.
Yet all were not impressed with California Chrome's victory. It seems that much has been written about the supposedly slow time in which California Chrome ran the ten furlongs of the Derby Saturday, being as it was only three fifths of a second faster than the amount of time it took for Smarty Jones to win the Run for the Roses ten years earlier. Indeed, if one was to judge their efforts solely by the Beyer Speed Figures that they earned, one would conclude that virtually every runner in this year's Kentucky Derby (with the notable exception of Commanding Curve) bounced off their last race prior to the Derby; an outcome that can probably best described as "unlikely." Much more likely is that the Beyer calculations failed to properly adjust for the track variant (i.e. the strong headwind on the stretch) in play during the running of the race. But no matter; just make a note for yourself to add approximately five-to-seven points to the Beyer Speed Figures for all Derby runners when handicapping their chances in future contests.
Finally, many words have been spent telling us what a poor crop this three year old field was, and how they just don't make horses like they used to. I haven't taken the time to measure exactly how many words have been written to tell us that horses today just don't want to run a mile and a quarter, but I suspect those words this year number about the same as those written last year saying the same thing, when that "poor" crop of Derby entrants that "wanted no part of ten furlongs" just missed by a nose of producing the winner of that Autumn's Breeders' Cup Classic.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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