RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Exclusive Girl (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Scene Queen (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Ann's Gold (ML 8-1)
# 6 Woodys Wharf (ML 4-1)
# 9 Broadway Bella (ML 12-1)
# 11 Lamazone (ML 9-2)
Exclusive Girl runs for a tag for the first time since her debut. The only time Exclusive Girl has competed at today's distance on the grass she took the Place. Scene Queen has proven herself to be competitive at this level; perhaps today she takes the next step forward.
Ann's Gold's two best races (as measured by her Beyer Speed Figures) were also her only two races routing on the grass. Woodys Wharf runs for a tag for the first time in her career. Woodys Warf also gets a rider change to Kent Desormeaux, who's been holding a hot hand of late.
Broadway Bella was sired by English Channel, which makes it highly probably that she'll take a big step forward in her first turf route. Lamazone has finished behind Scene Queen in her last two turf routes; but Lamazone may be cycling up to a peak effort.
RACE 7 - The Californian (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fury Kapcori (ML 4-5)
C’s
None
# 3 Sky Kingdom (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Can Fury Kapcori keep the streak going without Rafael Bejarano on his back? That's the only real question I see here, because if Fury Kapcori runs back to any of his last four victories he'll be getting his picture taken again today. # 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 9-2) won this event last year, and while that's normally a big plus in my book, keep in mind that last year this race was run at a different track over a different surface. Also note that Clubhouse Ride has not won since. So while I strongly recommend using Clubhouse Ride in your vertical wagers (you know, the "-cta" bets) I don't see him crossing the finish line first today.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nashoba's Gold (ML 9-5)
# 8 Room Service (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Little Journey (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Diversy Harbor (ML 4-1)
Nashoba's Gold misses by half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for her career, with all of those races having been run over this turf course. She has the best Tomlinson Ratings in this field for both turf and the distance, and she has already bested several of these in her prior outings. Room Service has seen her Beyers only go up with each of her career starts; if that streak continues, she could be an easy winner today.
Little Journey (Fr) was just a neck behind Istanford last time out in the Englewood Stakes; Istanford went on from that contest to win the Arlington Classic. Diversy Harbor was able to cross the wire in front of Nashoba's Gold in the China Doll back in March; perhaps the change in rider to Mike Smith will allow her to duplicate that effort today.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Senator Bob (ML 4-1)
# 6 Newfound Gold (ML 5-2)
# 10 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
C's
# 5 Lovmeister (ML 8-1)
# 7 My Jealous (ML 4-1)
Senator Bob just missed by half a length last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure right at par for this class level. Newfound Gold is a re-claim by Trainer Tim Yakteen and has finished in the Exacta in each of his last four starts; though the $4.5k drop in price after spending a month in the barn does raise an eyebrow. Carbonite closed fast to win by a nose last time out. The pace scenario in this one looks like it shapes up for a repeat effort today.
Lovmeister did not fare well the last time he tried unrestricted claimers; but that was upstate, on a different surface. Note that Trainer Bill Spawr does quite well placing those who won last time out. My Jealous couldn't make the lead last time out, and as a result threw in the towel; but a return to either of his prior two efforts puts him right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. Since he's our only single, our strategy basically boils down to trying to collect more than we would if we simply put it all on Fury Kapcori to Win. Of course, if Fury Kapcori doesn't win, we don't cash; it's that simple. So with that, here are the tickets that I'll be playing today:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 2 with 2,8 with 2,6,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,9,11 with 2 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,5,6,7,10 $60.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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