It's the start of Memorial Day weekend here in the U.S.A., a time when we celebrate the freedoms that we have in this country while commemorating those who paid the ultimate price to help make it so. Hopefully this weekend will be a joyous one for each of you as you engage in those activities which you most enjoy; and, Good Lord willing, hopefully the selections below will help to make it a profitable one as well.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Big Cazanova (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 9 Yard Line (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 4 J Serino (ML 8-1)
Since the first leg of this sequence is on dirt, this seems as good a place as any to mention to those who may have missed it that Santa Anita will be changing the composition of its main track in July after the close of the current meet. Beginning this Fall, the main track at Santa Anita will be composed of a single-source material: El Segundo Sand (currently the surface is a mixture of several different natural soils). Update your spreadsheets accordingly.
Yard Line has taken the Place at this level is all three of his career starts, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in each of those races that exceeds par for this class level. So is Yard Line a hanger? While possible, I think it's more likely that Yard Line has simply had the misfortune to go up against some very stiff competition, certainly as far as Chitu and Rprettyboyfloyd (two of the three who have defeated Yard Line) are concerned.
J Serino took a big step forward his last time out, which not so coincidentally was his first time trying two turns. Big Cazanova (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in South America; indeed, if not for a DQ he would be a Graded Stakes winner south of the border. Judging by his Tomlinson Ratings, Big Cazanova should also improve with the surface switch from turf to dirt. The question now is whether or not Big Cazanova is going all out to win after thirteen tries, or has he been conditioned to settle for a minor award.
# 3 Midnight Storm (ML 7-2) should take a step forward with the added distance; but even a sizeable step forward probably won't be enough to win against this field. # 8 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Baffert; and while all such must be respected, the fact that several in this field have already come close to or exceeded speed figure par for this level makes it most unlikely that a debuting runner will be the one to get his picture taken at the end.
RACE 7 - The Charles Whittingham Handicap (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Irish Surf (ML 20-1)
# 8 Joelito (ML 9-2)
I decided to take a stand against the likely pacesetters in this contest, which is why I've left # 6 Fire With Fire (ML 4-1) and # 7 Segway (ML 7-2) off my tickets. I believe that those two, along with # 1 Soi Phet (ML 15-1) and # 3 Bright Thought (ML 3-1) will be battling up front early; so much so that even on a turf course as hard and dry as this one the edge will be with those who do their best running late.
Quick Casablanca (Chi) took the Grade 3 Last Tycoon by a head his last time out, and should improve with the added distance. Jockey Elvis Trujillo has been holding the hot hand since coming out west; perhaps that'll be enough to give Irish Surf the added lengths that he needs. Joelito has displayed the running style that I'm looking for here is each of his three career victories. However, Joelito has also found himself in several contests (including his last) where he was too close to the pace early and spent the rest of the race getting further and further behind.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Classic Journey (ML 4-1)
# 6 Incredible Journey (ML 9-2)
# 8 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-5)
C's
# 3 Winninginfashion (ML 5-1)
Classic Journey took the Place at this level her last time out in her first try over this main track. Brandon's Princess has taken the Place in each of her three contests since graduating; two of those three against more expensive stock than that which she faces today.
Incredible Journey drops in class, switches riders, changes surfaces, and cuts back in distance. This is pretty much the equivalent of wiping the slate clean and starting over; and since Incredible Journey hasn't won since July, 2012, perhaps it's just what she needs.
Winninginfashion was oh-for-seven in her career, all against $20k Maiden Claimers. Winninginfashion was then entered against California bred non-claiming maidens, and won by daylight at odds of 4-1 (she had gone to post at odds of over 14-1 in her prior start against the aforementioned $20k Md Clm). I figure it might be a good idea to include her on our tickets, just in case.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 It Is Living Water (ML 5-2)
# 11 Durango Flier (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 6 Tuff Storm (ML 5-1)
# 8 Pyrotechnics (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Heat (ML 9-2)
It Is Living Water has finished in the money at this level his last three times out. He also owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure and the best career Beyer in this field. Durango Flier was right behind It Is Living Water last time out in what has developed into a key race (that is, a race in which multiple runners have come back to win their next time out).
Tuff Storm can be expected to improve in his second career start after a seven week rest. If you look at just the three career races Pyrotechnics has run that were turf routes, you'll see a pattern of steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures, all at this level of competition. If Pyrotechnics can keep that pattern going, then he just might get his picture taken at the end of this one. Wicked Heat makes his first start off the claim for Trainer Melody Conlon, who moves this son of Unusual Heat back to the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,8 with 4,6,8 with 5,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 3 with 5,11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 4,6,8 with 6,8,9 $9.00
Total: $38.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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