RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Kerrilynn (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Heat Du Jour (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Le Fascinator (ML 7-2)
# 6 Thermal Nermal (ML 7-2)
Kerrilyn won charging down the hill at this level last time out, albeit for a different barn. Heat Du Jour competes for the cheapest price tag of her career, returning from upstate after snagging an Allowance win.
Le Fascinator and Thermal Nermal share the similar history of just missing by a half length of defeating more expensive stock in their only other career contests charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - The Lazaro Barrera (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kobe's Back (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Ferocious (ML 5-2)
Kobe's Back returns from the East after going one-on-one with a starting gate in New York City (note that despite the rough start he still just missed by a half length of catching the winner, Coup de Grace, at the wire). If you exclude those racked up by Tonito M. (ML 6-1) at Camarero Race Track in Puerto Rico, Kobe's Back is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field. The only question I see here is will there be enough pace for Kobe's Back to close into.
Ferocious just misses by a head of being a perfect three-for-three for his career, all three races being over this main track. Ferocious projects to be the major beneficiary of the lack of early speed in this contest, especially with the rail position draw. If Ferocious gets loose on the lead he just may hit the wire before Kobe's Back can shift into high gear.
RACE 8 - [S](F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 Vegas Rules (ML 5-1)
# 8 Yes She's Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Sweet Boss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Copperopolis (ML 4-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)
Vegas Rules is the most experienced runner in this field, not just in terms of total starts but (more importantly) also with regards to races charging down the hill. Vegas Rules' last three Beyer Speed Figures show steady consistent improvement, and she's proven that she can compete at this class level. The only question now is can she find the Winner's Circle.
Yes She's Unusual is the only runner in the field with a win charging down the hill. Note that Heavens Stairway, the one whom Yes She's Unusual tied at the wire in their joint graduation, went on to defeat open company in a Starter Allowance (N2L) next time out.
Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are each making their second career start on the turf. All show better than average turf pedigree (while Queen of the Hill's Turf Tomlinson Rating may not look impressive, her damsire (Relaunch) was a Graded Stakes winner on the grass). Also note the riders for Sweet Boss, Copperopolis, and Queen of the Hill are (respectively) Mike Smith, Rafael Bejarano, and Drayden Van Dyke, three of the top four jockeys (by Winning Percentage) on the Santa Anita grass during the Winter Meet (minimum fifty turf starts). In a field that lacks a legitimate standout, the combination of pedigree and rider makes these three worthy of consideration.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dancinginthestreet (ML 5-1)
# 5 Classy Ava (ML 7-2)
# 7 See Through (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 3 Queen Kalyrra (ML 12-1)
# 4 Reverchon (ML 12-1)
Dancinginthestreet has finished in the money all three times that she's competed on a fast dirt track. Classy Ava took the Place at today's distance in her debut, and comes into today's event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. See Through returns to the track for the first time since her October debut. It'll be interesting to see if Mike Smith really does stick around to ride her in the finale.
Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon are a pair of first time starters worth considering based upon the records of their respective trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Tom Proctor) and sires (Giant's Causeway and Divine Park, respectively) with debut runners. Also note the virtually identical gate work for Queen Kalyrra and Reverchon on Cinco de Mayo.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to change up our usual ticket writing format. We'll still put all our A's together for a buck as we normally do using the Crist method; but if Kobe's Back wins the feature, I want to be sure we're covered even if multiple "C" contenders win the other legs. So here are the tickets I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 3 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 with 2,3,4,5,7 $50.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1 with 4,8 with 2,5,7 $6.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:37 EDT / 3:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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