Wednesday, May 7, 2014

2014 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up

And we're back.

Needless to say, reuniting with the Derby Crew in Vegas was a wonderful experience, one that I could never hope to find the words to properly describe.  Not all Crew members, sad to say, were able to make it; but for those of us who were able to attend it was a time well worth having, creating yet more memories to be forever cherished.  Good Lord willing, I hope we can keep this going for many more years to come.

As was the case last year, special thanks again this year go to the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for all that they did to add to the enjoyment of our stay.  Located in Henderson, Nevada, Green Valley Ranch is the place to go for luxury resort accommodations at value prices.  And being off the Strip doesn't mean missing the Strip, as free shuttles run throughout the day between the Strip and the hotel.

But while the rooms and amenities are all Grade A, it's the excellent Race Book that keeps the Derby Crew coming back to Green Valley Ranch year after year.  I can say without fear of contradiction that you will not find a better Race and Sports Book in Vegas than the one located at Green Valley Ranch.  The joint is run by Bert Cirincione, who has the official title of Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations.  Bert, assisted by the ever so capable and oh so lovely Celina, made sure that the Crew did not want for anything at any time during our stay.  Indeed, the level of customer service provided by those working inside the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch, from Bert and Celina to the ticket writers and the cocktail waitresses (a special thank you to Sharon!) and even to the custodians (a HUGE thank you to the gentleman who recovered T's cell phone!) is quite simply off the charts, at a level that other facilities can only dream of achieving.  I've said it before and I'll keep saying it because it's true: if you're a horseplayer and you're in Vegas, you owe it to yourself to check out the Race and Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch.  Oh, and be sure to stick around for dinner afterwards at Hanks (and be especially sure to ask for James as your server).

As to the Kentucky Derby itself, to the surprise of virtually no one (except it seems the experts on NBC, the majority of whom picked against him) California Chrome showed himself to be the class of the field, winning the Derby with such ease that Jockey Victor Espinosa did everything but stop and sign autographs in the final strides before crossing the finish line.  This marked the second consecutive year that the Post Time Favorite has won the Derby, and the second time in the past three years that the first leg of the Triple Crown went to the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.  

If you truly want to appreciate just how dominate California Chrome's victory was, take a look at the Equibase chart of the race and note the following:  

- California Chrome was the only horse in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the Superfecta (the top four finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, and 14th (respectively) after the first quarter mile);

- California Chrome and Samraat (!) were the only horses in the front half of the field at the first quarter mark to finish in the top seven (the top seven finishers in the race were 3rd, 18th, 12th, 14th, 4th, 13th, and 19th, (respectively) after the first quarter mile;

- California Chrome, Danza, and Samraat were the only horses in the front half of the field at the third quarter spot to finish in the top eight (the top eight finishers in the race were 3rd, 17th, 8th, 11th, 4th, 15th, 18th, and 12th (respectively) after the first six furlongs had been run).

What the above numbers show us is that California Chrome won easily despite going against a race pace shape that favored closers.

Yet all were not impressed with California Chrome's victory.  It seems that much has been written about the supposedly slow time in which California Chrome ran the ten furlongs of the Derby Saturday, being as it was only three fifths of a second faster than the amount of time it took for Smarty Jones to win the Run for the Roses ten years earlier.  Indeed, if one was to judge their efforts solely by the Beyer Speed Figures that they earned, one would conclude that virtually every runner in this year's Kentucky Derby (with the notable exception of Commanding Curve) bounced off their last race prior to the Derby; an outcome that can probably best described as "unlikely."  Much more likely is that the Beyer calculations failed to properly adjust for the track variant (i.e. the strong headwind on the stretch) in play during the running of the race.  But no matter; just make a note for yourself to add approximately five-to-seven points to the Beyer Speed Figures for all Derby runners when handicapping their chances in future contests.

Finally, many words have been spent telling us what a poor crop this three year old field was, and how they just don't make horses like they used to.  I haven't taken the time to measure exactly how many words have been written to tell us that horses today just don't want to run a mile and a quarter, but I suspect those words this year number about the same as those written last year saying the same thing, when that "poor" crop of Derby entrants that "wanted no part of ten furlongs" just missed by a nose of producing the winner of that Autumn's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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