Race 6 - # 11 Pepnic (Final Odds 6.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Kalookan Queen - # 3 Harlington's Rose (17.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Daytona - # 9 Bettys Bambino (3.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Verraco (23.60) - No Selection
Harlington's Rose finished a neck behind Global Hottie last month; so if you liked Global Hottie, maybe you also liked Harlington's Rose. Personally, the only way I would have had Harlington's Rose on my tickets would have been to punch the "ALL" button.
In the finale, both Verraco and the Place horse, # 9 Sunbeamsfromheaven (6.00) were running their first route races on real dirt after starting their respective careers with two sprints on the synthetics; maybe that's something to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks. But that's the future; for the present, neither Harlington's Rose nor Verraco were on our radar screen, let alone our tickets, so we do not cash today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 3 / 9 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $16,776.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 28, 2014
12/28/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Hopefully everyone has been enjoying their extended holiday weekend. It's Day Three of the Santa Anita meet; and after re-charging our batteries Saturday, we're ready to take a run at Sunday's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - Clm $40k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Snowday (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Luckarack (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 No Jet Lag (ML 4-1)
# 10 Royal F J (ML 6-1)
# 11 Pepnic (ML 10-1)
This one looks like an after Christmas sale, as there are multiple class droppers going for the lowest price tags of their career.
Snowday goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins over a third of the time with such. Luckarack took the Place at this level two starts back; two starts before that, Luckarack won at this level. No Jet Lag drops in for a tag for the fist time in his career. No Jet Lag finished out of the money in each of his five races since winning the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile; still, the back class must be respected.
Royal F J has finished in the money six of the last eight times the he's raced down the hill, all at this class level or higher. Pepnic has proven himself to be competitive at this class level. In addition Pepnic, who is making his first charge down the hill, has shown good early speed in his turf routes.
RACE 7 - (F) The Kalookan Queen $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Awesome Baby (ML 9-5)
# 8 Tribal Gal (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Global Hottie (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexington Pearl (ML 6-1)
Awesome Baby is a class standout here, as she enters this contest with a three race winning streak, two of the three coming against Graded Stakes company. Awesome Baby has not raced since March, but that's not really a concern, as Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to get his runners ready after an extended vacation. More of a concern is that the Beyer Speed Figures that Awesome Baby earned in those three victories hardly jump off the page. In addition, this will be the first time that Awesome Baby will be facing her elders. Awesome Baby certainly deserves to be the Favorite here; but I think it's also prudent, based on the above, to spread a little as well.
Tribal Gal took the Place in the Grade 3 LA Woman two starts back. In the start prior to that, Tribal Gal won The Orange County at Los Al. Global Hottie is the "other" Baffert here, making her first try against stakes competition.
Lexington Pearl didn't appreciate wearing blinkers last time out, and should improve with the ability to see everything going on. Lexington Pearl is also the most likely entrant to be running late, as this contest seems primed with early speed.
RACE 8 - The Daytona (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 9 Bettys Bambino (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Lil Bit O'Fun (ML 7-2)
Sweet Swap took the Grade 3 San Simeon three starts back; in the start before that, Sweet Swap won the Joe Hernandez. Both those races were over this downhill turf course. Bettys Bambino is three-for-four lifetime charging down the hill. Lil Bit O'Fun took the Show racing down the hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D two starts back.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Whiskey Wild (ML 6-1)
# 5 Oh Newman (ML 7-2)
# 8 Congrats Seattle (ML 3-1)
C's
RACE 6 - Clm $40k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Snowday (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Luckarack (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 No Jet Lag (ML 4-1)
# 10 Royal F J (ML 6-1)
# 11 Pepnic (ML 10-1)
This one looks like an after Christmas sale, as there are multiple class droppers going for the lowest price tags of their career.
Snowday goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins over a third of the time with such. Luckarack took the Place at this level two starts back; two starts before that, Luckarack won at this level. No Jet Lag drops in for a tag for the fist time in his career. No Jet Lag finished out of the money in each of his five races since winning the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile; still, the back class must be respected.
Royal F J has finished in the money six of the last eight times the he's raced down the hill, all at this class level or higher. Pepnic has proven himself to be competitive at this class level. In addition Pepnic, who is making his first charge down the hill, has shown good early speed in his turf routes.
RACE 7 - (F) The Kalookan Queen $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Awesome Baby (ML 9-5)
# 8 Tribal Gal (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Global Hottie (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexington Pearl (ML 6-1)
Awesome Baby is a class standout here, as she enters this contest with a three race winning streak, two of the three coming against Graded Stakes company. Awesome Baby has not raced since March, but that's not really a concern, as Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to get his runners ready after an extended vacation. More of a concern is that the Beyer Speed Figures that Awesome Baby earned in those three victories hardly jump off the page. In addition, this will be the first time that Awesome Baby will be facing her elders. Awesome Baby certainly deserves to be the Favorite here; but I think it's also prudent, based on the above, to spread a little as well.
Tribal Gal took the Place in the Grade 3 LA Woman two starts back. In the start prior to that, Tribal Gal won The Orange County at Los Al. Global Hottie is the "other" Baffert here, making her first try against stakes competition.
Lexington Pearl didn't appreciate wearing blinkers last time out, and should improve with the ability to see everything going on. Lexington Pearl is also the most likely entrant to be running late, as this contest seems primed with early speed.
RACE 8 - The Daytona (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 9 Bettys Bambino (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Lil Bit O'Fun (ML 7-2)
Sweet Swap took the Grade 3 San Simeon three starts back; in the start before that, Sweet Swap won the Joe Hernandez. Both those races were over this downhill turf course. Bettys Bambino is three-for-four lifetime charging down the hill. Lil Bit O'Fun took the Show racing down the hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D two starts back.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Whiskey Wild (ML 6-1)
# 5 Oh Newman (ML 7-2)
# 8 Congrats Seattle (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 A Colt Following (ML 5-1)
Whiskey Wild drops in for a tag after debuting last time out against non-claiming maidens; Trainer Jeff Mullins wins approximately 27% of the time that he moves one of his chargers from MSW to Maiden Claiming. Oh Newman just missed by half a length of graduating at this class level last time out.
Congrats Seattle has been in for a tag only once before in his career; and in that race (against more expensive) he lost by just half a length. A Colt Following, trying two turns for the first time today, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,10,11 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,6 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 11 with 4,5,8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 3 $4.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, December 26, 2014
12/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The La Brea - # 9 Sam's Sister (Final Odds 12.50) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Mathis Brothers Mile - # 4 Alert Bay (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Malibu - # 8 Shared Belief (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Dea (9.50) - No Selection
So we had Shared Belief at 1-2 and..............nothing else. Not much to say about a performance like that except:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 4 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,969.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Mathis Brothers Mile - # 4 Alert Bay (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Malibu - # 8 Shared Belief (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Dea (9.50) - No Selection
So we had Shared Belief at 1-2 and..............nothing else. Not much to say about a performance like that except:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 4 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,969.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, December 25, 2014
12/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Day at The Great Race Place in Arcadia, California. As has become traditional, the card features The Malibu and The Race Formerly Known as The Sir Beaufort. In addition, for the third year in a row, those two will be joined by The La Brea. Just absolutely one of the best racing days of the year. But as further evidence of how unfair life can be (or, much more accurately, as further evidence of how bad I can often be at scheduling) I won't be able to watch the action live tomorrow, as I have to go to the office and work at my real job. So if you were wondering why these selections are being posted approximately twelve hours earlier than you would normally see them, now you know.
RACE 6 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Taris (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 6 More Complexity (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jo Jo Warrior (ML 4-1)
Taris wired the field in the Grade 2 Raven Run last time out, over a Keeneland track that seemed to be favoring closers. A repeat of either of her last two efforts would get the job done today.
More Complexity has been showing steady improvement throughout the year; whether that's because she's been getting better as she matures, or because she hasn't had to compete on real dirt since March, remains to be seen. Jo Jo Warrior should appreciate the turn back in distance, as well as not having to face Untapable again.
RACE 7 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Heart to Heart (ML 5-2)
# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 10 Long On Value (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Red Outlaw (ML 6-1)
Heart to Heart enters this contest on a three race winning streak, including a pair of Graded Stakes at Churchill Downs. Heart to Heart may have to prove today that he can win without having the early lead. Home Run Kitten and Long On Value are Graded Stakes winners over this turf course, though neither of those victories came at today's distance. Red Outlaw has looked good against lesser competition, so the question here is can he handle the step up the class ladder.
RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Chitu (ML 4-1)
# 8 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
C’s
# 4 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 30-1)
If thoroughbred racing was run by Vince McMahon, # 7 Tamarando (ML 12-1), Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's other entrant, would make a sharp left turn right out the gate, wiping out at least two of Trainer Bob Baffert's entrants, # 6 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) and # 5 Pimpernel (ML 10-1); which in turn would be followed by a no holds barred battle royal, involving jockeys, trainers, owners, and at least a few grooms. And yes, I would pay to see that.
Anyway, Shared Belief is much the best horse in this field; but Chitu will be the inside speed, and that's always dangerous on a fast dirt track, especially the fast dirt track that hosts The Malibu every Boxing Day. Rprettyboyfloyd is on the ticket because maybe this is the day that he finally lives up to the potential he's shown since he took the Place behind Bayern in their mutual debut back in January.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Scattagirl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 8 Paulina's Love (ML 7-2)
# 13 Luvuryan (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 9 Indian Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Elle Sueno (ML 8-1)
Scattergirl gets another crack at the Santa Anita grass, this time without having to negotiate the hill. Foolish Ways (Ire) goes back to competing against non-winners after trying stakes company last time out in her North American debut.
Paulina's Love is another that tried to graduate against stakes company last time out. Paulina's Love took the Place in her two prior tries against fellow maidens. Luvuryan is on the Also-Eligible List, and therefore may not draw in; but if she does make it to the gate, she should be live.
Indian Princess took the Show last time out, and may improve with the switch to turf. Elle Sueno took a big step forward in her second career start last time out, and now gets to try the grass for the first time.
Okay, that's the analysis. Keep in mind that I'm doing this much earlier than I normally do, so I don't know who will be scratched, or (as in the case of Luvuryan in the finale) who might draw in. So with that caveat, taking the above and applying the usual Crist method, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 4 with 5,7,8,13 $6.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:47 EST / 2:47 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Taris (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 6 More Complexity (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jo Jo Warrior (ML 4-1)
Taris wired the field in the Grade 2 Raven Run last time out, over a Keeneland track that seemed to be favoring closers. A repeat of either of her last two efforts would get the job done today.
More Complexity has been showing steady improvement throughout the year; whether that's because she's been getting better as she matures, or because she hasn't had to compete on real dirt since March, remains to be seen. Jo Jo Warrior should appreciate the turn back in distance, as well as not having to face Untapable again.
RACE 7 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Heart to Heart (ML 5-2)
# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 10 Long On Value (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Red Outlaw (ML 6-1)
Heart to Heart enters this contest on a three race winning streak, including a pair of Graded Stakes at Churchill Downs. Heart to Heart may have to prove today that he can win without having the early lead. Home Run Kitten and Long On Value are Graded Stakes winners over this turf course, though neither of those victories came at today's distance. Red Outlaw has looked good against lesser competition, so the question here is can he handle the step up the class ladder.
RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Chitu (ML 4-1)
# 8 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
C’s
# 4 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 30-1)
If thoroughbred racing was run by Vince McMahon, # 7 Tamarando (ML 12-1), Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's other entrant, would make a sharp left turn right out the gate, wiping out at least two of Trainer Bob Baffert's entrants, # 6 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) and # 5 Pimpernel (ML 10-1); which in turn would be followed by a no holds barred battle royal, involving jockeys, trainers, owners, and at least a few grooms. And yes, I would pay to see that.
Anyway, Shared Belief is much the best horse in this field; but Chitu will be the inside speed, and that's always dangerous on a fast dirt track, especially the fast dirt track that hosts The Malibu every Boxing Day. Rprettyboyfloyd is on the ticket because maybe this is the day that he finally lives up to the potential he's shown since he took the Place behind Bayern in their mutual debut back in January.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Scattagirl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 8 Paulina's Love (ML 7-2)
# 13 Luvuryan (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 9 Indian Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Elle Sueno (ML 8-1)
Scattergirl gets another crack at the Santa Anita grass, this time without having to negotiate the hill. Foolish Ways (Ire) goes back to competing against non-winners after trying stakes company last time out in her North American debut.
Paulina's Love is another that tried to graduate against stakes company last time out. Paulina's Love took the Place in her two prior tries against fellow maidens. Luvuryan is on the Also-Eligible List, and therefore may not draw in; but if she does make it to the gate, she should be live.
Indian Princess took the Show last time out, and may improve with the switch to turf. Elle Sueno took a big step forward in her second career start last time out, and now gets to try the grass for the first time.
Okay, that's the analysis. Keep in mind that I'm doing this much earlier than I normally do, so I don't know who will be scratched, or (as in the case of Luvuryan in the finale) who might draw in. So with that caveat, taking the above and applying the usual Crist method, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 4 with 5,7,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 9,10 $6.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:47 EST / 2:47 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Merry Christmas!
“Christmas is not a time nor a season but a state of mind. To cherish peace and goodwill, to be plenteous in mercy is to have the real spirit of Christmas.” - Calvin Coolidge
Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire. Merry Christmas!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire. Merry Christmas!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 21, 2014
12/21/14 LRC R9 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
In an event that we've already covered as part of the Late Pick Four, Paralyzing Eyes, the five year old mare whose career we've been following, competed Sunday in Race 9 at Los Alamitos Race Course. Paralyzing Eyes (33.80), trained by Bruce Jackson and running with a $20k price tag on her head, was bumped at the start, but quickly gained the lead in the early going. However, her time at the front of the pack was short lived, as she was soon shuffled back, advancing to the rear through the stretch, and crossing the wire eighth in the field of eleven, sixteen lengths back of the winner, Flyin for a Livin (0.40*). The loss brings Paralyzing Eyes career mark to oh-for-eighteen.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/21/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Valentine Boy (Final Odds 18.40) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Clever Move (10.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Reno Rebel (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Flyin for a Livin (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Certainly not a good showing; not when the only two winners you catch are the only two winners with asterisks by their odds. No suspense on the day either, as we were knocked out right in the very first leg, when our single "A" Selection in that event, # 1 Bluegrass Reward (3.20*) couldn't get to the winner in the stretch, and had to settle for the Place. Of course, being knocked out in the first leg just spared us the pain of being knocked out in the second leg, as we had no part of the winner in that race either.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 7 / 1 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $810.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 7 Clever Move (10.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Reno Rebel (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Flyin for a Livin (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Certainly not a good showing; not when the only two winners you catch are the only two winners with asterisks by their odds. No suspense on the day either, as we were knocked out right in the very first leg, when our single "A" Selection in that event, # 1 Bluegrass Reward (3.20*) couldn't get to the winner in the stretch, and had to settle for the Place. Of course, being knocked out in the first leg just spared us the pain of being knocked out in the second leg, as we had no part of the winner in that race either.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 7 / 1 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $810.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/21/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the final day of the year for thoroughbred racing at Los Alamitos, so here's hoping we can end the meet on an up note, and grab ourselves a little extra dough for our holiday shopping.
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bluegrass Reward (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 3 Senor Rain (ML 5-1)
# 6 Gilligan (ML 9-2)
# 8 Shun (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 9 Dress Code (ML 6-1)
Bluegrass Reward won at this class level at today's distance two starts back at Santa Anita. Bluegrass Reward has won two of his last three starts on a fast dirt track.
Senor Rain has shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and is one-for-two lifetime over this main track. Gilligan ships in from upstate, where he has been facing more expensive stock. Shun won at this class level last time out, albeit over the plastic at Del Mar. Dress Code gets some much needed class relief.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mojo Street (ML 20-1)
# 3 Eckersley (ML 3-1)
# 5 Nob Hill (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bluegrass Reward (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 3 Senor Rain (ML 5-1)
# 6 Gilligan (ML 9-2)
# 8 Shun (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 9 Dress Code (ML 6-1)
Bluegrass Reward won at this class level at today's distance two starts back at Santa Anita. Bluegrass Reward has won two of his last three starts on a fast dirt track.
Senor Rain has shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and is one-for-two lifetime over this main track. Gilligan ships in from upstate, where he has been facing more expensive stock. Shun won at this class level last time out, albeit over the plastic at Del Mar. Dress Code gets some much needed class relief.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mojo Street (ML 20-1)
# 3 Eckersley (ML 3-1)
# 5 Nob Hill (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 6 Pocketball (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bentley's Gone (ML 6-1)
# 10 Big Hat Charlie (ML 5-1)
Mojo Street is by Street Boss, whose progeny do very well at first asking. Mojo Street also shows a workout pattern going back to September with no serious gaps. Eckersley is by Congrats, whose progeny do reasonably well in their debuts.
Nob Hill, trained by Bob Baffert, lacks the bullet works that we've come to expect from Baffert starters, and there's also a pretty noticeable gap between Oct 10 and Nov 7. In addition, Nob Hill is sired by Curlin, who famously did not race as a juvenile. But Curlin's get have not done poorly in their debuts (and, while I haven't done the research myself, I suspect the numbers look even better once the Del Mar polytrack runners are backed out), and the connections must have seen something in this colt to get them to fork over $700k at auction back in May.
Pocketball goes up the class ladder; but he did show speed on the polytrack at Del Mar in his debut last month, and that speed should carry over to this dirt track. Bentley's Gone shows a steady workout pattern, and the debuting runners by his sire, Warrior's Reward, tend to do well. Big Hat Charlie has shown some early speed in his two prior contests, and he has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Conscience (ML 5-1)
# 6 Ranulf (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Reno Rebel (ML 6-1)
# 7 Brando the Birdman (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Like Race 7 yesterday, the "Y" in the conditions seems out of place. Treat this one like an OC / N1X.
Conscience comes back after an approximate ten week vacation; Trainer Tom Proctor does quite well with such. Ranulf is two-for-four lifetime on a fast dirt track, as well as finishing in the Trifecta in all six lifetime starts at today's distance.
Reno Rebel won a listed stakes two starts back at today's distance over the fast dirt track at Stockton. Reno Rebel also broke his maiden on the fast dirt at Santa Anita. Brando the Birdman is two-for-two lifetime when competing on a fast dirt track, and is the only entrant in this contest with a win over this race course.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Flyin for a Livin (ML 7-5)
B's
# 3 Bea's Bench (ML 4-1)
# 4 Council Talk (ML 5-1)
C’s
Conscience comes back after an approximate ten week vacation; Trainer Tom Proctor does quite well with such. Ranulf is two-for-four lifetime on a fast dirt track, as well as finishing in the Trifecta in all six lifetime starts at today's distance.
Reno Rebel won a listed stakes two starts back at today's distance over the fast dirt track at Stockton. Reno Rebel also broke his maiden on the fast dirt at Santa Anita. Brando the Birdman is two-for-two lifetime when competing on a fast dirt track, and is the only entrant in this contest with a win over this race course.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Flyin for a Livin (ML 7-5)
B's
# 3 Bea's Bench (ML 4-1)
# 4 Council Talk (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Paralyzing Eyes (ML 20-1)
Flyin for a Livin has taken the Show in two of her last three races, both against non-claiming state bred maidens. The Beyer Speed Figure that Flyin for a Livin earned in her last dirt start would almost definitely get the job done today.
Bea's Bench and Council Talk have both finished in the money the last two times that they've competed at this class level in their respective contests. Paralyzing Eyes has the second best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field for this race track; besides, how cool would it be to cash a Late Pick Four ticket because the career maiden that we've been following since her debut was to finally win?
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5 with 4,6 with 11 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,8 with 2,3,5 with 1,4,6,7 with 3,4,11 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,3,5 with 4,6 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 6,9,10 with 4,6 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5 with 4,6 with 2 $3.00
Total: $84.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:50 EST / 2:50 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 20, 2014
12/20/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Tall and Sweet (Final Odds 2.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Sweet Marini (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Los Alamitos Futurity - # 3 Dortmund (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Triunfo (15.00) - "B" Selection
We had the right idea: pair up the Baffert-trained Dortmund in the Futurity with another short-priced Baffert runner to turn the Late Pick Four into a Double. We just picked the wrong short-priced Baffert runner.
Dortmund fulfilled his end of the bargain, albeit by the slimmest of margins, by winning a photo in a stretch battle that is worth multiple viewings. But # 8 Roadbug (1.10*) barely picked up her feet in the opening leg of the sequence, finishing a well beaten sixth, over ten lengths behind Tall and Sweet. Had we instead paired up Dortmund with the Baffert-trained Sweet Marini in the second leg while punching the "ALL" button for the other two races, we would have collected. For that matter, had we made Tall and Sweet a "B" Selection rather than an "C" Selection, or made Triunfo an "A" Selction rather than a "B" Selection, we would have collected.
Anyway, despite all that, after three legs we were still alive to our three "A" Selections in the finale. The Will Pays for those three were:
# 4 Nevada Time (1.40*) - $26.15
# 7 Badasmywifeletsmeb (5.70) - $49.10
# 10 Play Maker (3.00) - $45.80
Nevada Time took the Place in Race 9, getting to the wire a half length behind Triunfo, and thus putting the final nail in the coffin of our Late Pick Four play, and turning our last remaining ticket into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $163.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 Sweet Marini (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Los Alamitos Futurity - # 3 Dortmund (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Triunfo (15.00) - "B" Selection
We had the right idea: pair up the Baffert-trained Dortmund in the Futurity with another short-priced Baffert runner to turn the Late Pick Four into a Double. We just picked the wrong short-priced Baffert runner.
Dortmund fulfilled his end of the bargain, albeit by the slimmest of margins, by winning a photo in a stretch battle that is worth multiple viewings. But # 8 Roadbug (1.10*) barely picked up her feet in the opening leg of the sequence, finishing a well beaten sixth, over ten lengths behind Tall and Sweet. Had we instead paired up Dortmund with the Baffert-trained Sweet Marini in the second leg while punching the "ALL" button for the other two races, we would have collected. For that matter, had we made Tall and Sweet a "B" Selection rather than an "C" Selection, or made Triunfo an "A" Selction rather than a "B" Selection, we would have collected.
Anyway, despite all that, after three legs we were still alive to our three "A" Selections in the finale. The Will Pays for those three were:
# 4 Nevada Time (1.40*) - $26.15
# 7 Badasmywifeletsmeb (5.70) - $49.10
# 10 Play Maker (3.00) - $45.80
Nevada Time took the Place in Race 9, getting to the wire a half length behind Triunfo, and thus putting the final nail in the coffin of our Late Pick Four play, and turning our last remaining ticket into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $163.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/20/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
The juveniles take another step forward on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, as the transplanted Hollywood / CashCall Futurity makes its debut at Los Alamitos (Trivia Question: Which jockey won the initial running of the Hollywood Futurity? Answer below.). The Los Alamitos Futurity is today's featured race, and will be the third leg in today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Roadbug (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 4 Sound City (ML 4-1)
C’s
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Roadbug (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 4 Sound City (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Be Nice (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tall and Sweet (ML 5-2)
# 7 Ebony Princess (ML 6-1)
Roadbug looks like a standout here; or, at least as much of a standout as an unraced juvenile filly can look. Roadbug is trained by Bob Baffert, who wins approximately 22% of the time with debut runners. In addition, progeny of Roadbug's sire, Quality Road, win approximately 18% of their initial tries. Roadbug has the best Tomlinson rating for the distance in this field by far, and she shows a steady workout pattern going back into September.
Sound City is another first time starter that shows a nice unbroken workout tab going back into the baseball season. Also note that Jockey Rafael Bejarano will be on board Sound City, and not the Hollendorfer entry.
Be Nice, also a first time starter, is sired by Successful Appeal, whose get win approximately 16.7% of their debuts. Tall and Sweet is a debut runner trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 30% of such. Ebony Princess, one of two experienced runners in this field, showed some early speed last time out on the Del Mar polytrack; if she can get off quickly today, Ebony Princess may be home free before the debut runners figure out what's going on.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 62k/N$Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Popalicious (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sweet Marini (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Magic Lily (ML 3-1)
# 6 Be Proud (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pearl de Vere (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Not sure why the "Y" is in the abbreviated condition code, as the full conditions make no reference to when the runners won their respective races, at least as regards eligibility. So consider this one an OC / N2X; and be forewarned that it looks to be a wide open affair.
Popalicious won at this class level over this track at today's distance last time out. That race was back in September; note that Trainer Eddie Truman wins approximately 27% of the time with runners returning from a two-to-six month vacation.
Sweet Marini won by over three lengths at this track at today's distance last time out at a class level just a rung below this one. Note the quick turnaround for Sweet Marini, as she comes back again on less than two weeks rest. My guess is that Trainer Bob Baffert wants to give her another race over the Los Al surface before the action shifts to Santa Anita for the next six months.
Magic Lily steps up in class after a clear win last time out on the Del Mar polytrack. Magic Lily has shown herself to be competitive at this level when racing back in Florida. Be Proud won a listed stakes up state two starts back, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of her career starts on a fast dirt track.
Pearl de Vere blew the start her last time out; two starts back she was a daylight winner at this track at a class level one rung below this event. We'll find out today if her failure in her last outing was a fluke.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dortmund (ML 4-5)
B's
# 4 Mr. Z (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Bench Warrant (ML 15-1)
# 2 No Problem (ML 8-1)
# 5 Firing Line (ML 3-1)
Dortmund comes back to SoCal after a sojourn to Churchill Downs; a site to which he is expected to return in May. Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, romped against eleven others in that Churchill Downs event, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that is the career best in this field.
Mr. Z, trained by D Wayne Lukas, is the most experienced runner in this field, and has taken the Place four times in Graded Stakes company. No Problem is the only entrant in this field with a Graded Stakes win, having captured The Bob Hope at Del Mar last time out.
Firing Line, a $240k auction purchase back in April,, has put forth two fine efforts in his initial two contests. Firing Line has also been firing bullets in his Santa Anita workouts. Bench Warrant is on the ticket because I believe that if you're using every runner in a field except one, you might as well use them all.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Nevada Time (ML 5-2)
# 7 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 7-2)
# 10 Play Maker (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Your Bertrando (ML 4-1)
# 6 Triunfo (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Exponentially (ML 12-1)
# 5 Tiz Not a Mobile (ML 20-1)
Nevada Time makes a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder in his second career start, as he runs for a cheaper price but now competes against open company instead of just California breds, which he faced in his debut. Trainer Jeff Mullins wins 20% of the time with runners trying to graduate in their second attempt.
Badasmywifeletsmeb has taken the Show in each of his last two starts at this class level. Play Maker has finished in the money in each of his last four starts over a fast dirt track, all at this class level.
Your Betrando goes on less than one week's rest after taking the Show upstate at Golden Gate this past Sunday; Trainer Salvador Naranjo wins 25% of the time with such. Triunfo looks to be rounding into top form, as his early speed carried him further last time out than it had in recent events.
Exponentially had a nice work over this track on the 13th, and just might prove that the sixteenth time's the charm. Tiz Not a Mobile is a first time starter with a couple of noticeable gaps in his workout pattern; but really, how much worse than these can he be?
OK, that's the analysis. As usual, we're going to play our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion; but I'm also going to punch a couple of extra tickets. I think Roadbug in the opening leg and Dortmund in the feature could be standouts; I know that they will be heavily bet. So what I want to do is price protect this play, so that if those two do come in we still have a reasonable chance at getting a decent return. It'll put us over our usual budget; but I think it's the proper strategy here. So with all that, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with 4,7,10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 1,4,5,6,8 with 3,4 with 2,4,6,7,10 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7 with 1,5 with 3 with 4,7,10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 1,2,5 with 4,7,10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $2.00
A's With ALL in the Finale
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with ALL $10.00
Roadbug and Dortmund Hopscotch Double
$0.50 P4: 8 with ALL with 3 with ALL $40.00
Total: $126.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:50 EST / 2:50 PST. Good luck to all.
Answer to Trivia Question: The first running of the Hollywood Futurity in 1981 was won by Stalwart, trained by D Wayne Lukas and ridden by Chris J. McCarron.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 14, 2014
12/14/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Cornbread Red (Final Odds 3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Lucky S. J. (9.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The King Glorious - # 3 Acceptance (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Takeit Tothe Limit (0.90*) - "A" Selection
We offered a pretty compelling argument in the preview as to why Cornbread Red was not a top selection; however, Cornbread Red offered an even more convincing rebuttal in the actual running of the race, overtaking # 3 Guy Code (4.30) in the stretch to win the opening leg of the sequence.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive entering the finale:
# 4 Indian Monkey (6.10) - $200.55
# 5 Cat One (3.10) - $136.05
Had we thought more highly of Cornbread Red we would have used him as an "A" Selection, allowing us to collect twice; but all of that is what might have been, not what was. What was was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 8 / 3 / 8 with a payout of $50.55 for a fifty cent wager.
So we cash; but we cash at a loss. Which, while not a good result, sure beats not cashing at all.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Lucky S. J. (9.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The King Glorious - # 3 Acceptance (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Takeit Tothe Limit (0.90*) - "A" Selection
We offered a pretty compelling argument in the preview as to why Cornbread Red was not a top selection; however, Cornbread Red offered an even more convincing rebuttal in the actual running of the race, overtaking # 3 Guy Code (4.30) in the stretch to win the opening leg of the sequence.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive entering the finale:
# 4 Indian Monkey (6.10) - $200.55
# 5 Cat One (3.10) - $136.05
Had we thought more highly of Cornbread Red we would have used him as an "A" Selection, allowing us to collect twice; but all of that is what might have been, not what was. What was was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 8 / 3 / 8 with a payout of $50.55 for a fifty cent wager.
So we cash; but we cash at a loss. Which, while not a good result, sure beats not cashing at all.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/14/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
Sunday's featured race at Los Al is the King Glorious, the state-bred contest won last year by California Chrome at Hollywood Park. That event will be part of today's Late Pick Four, which we'll be chasing today.
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Afleet in Time (Morning Line 5-1)
# 5 Tiz Jolie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Cornbread Red (ML 2-1)
# 6 Dynamite Ride (ML 5-2)
# 7 Whoyougonnacall (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Note the conditions for future reference, because you won't see it in the DRF Past Performances; this contest is for horses that do not have two lifetime Wins, making it a much weaker field than your typical Starter Allowance.
Cornbread Red is the Morning Line Favorite here, and the puzzle to be solved in handicapping this event is deciding what exactly to do with him. Cornbread Red has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (which is also the best career Beyer in this field) but it was earned on the Del Mar polytrack. In addition, Cornbread Red was facing state-bred competition in that contest; not the open company that several others in this field graduated against. Cornbread Red is facing winners for the first time; but, in a somewhat unusual development, so is every other runner in this field. Finally, Cornbread Red is trying two turns for the first time today; meanwhile, nearly all of his opponents today broke their maiden last time out at today's distance of one mile. I may be proven wrong later today, but I don't think Cornbread Red is the best horse in this field; nor do I think that he's one of the top three most likely winners in this field today.
Afleet in Time graduated in his second try last time out, at today's distance of a mile on the main track at Santa Anita, after failing to hit the board upstate on the Golden Gate grass. Tiz Jolie also graduated in an eight furlong contest at Santa Anita, crossing the wire that day ahead of Whoyougonnacall.
Dynamite Ride and Whoyougonnacall were both claimed out of their last respective races, so each will be going today for a barn other than the one for which they broke their maidens. Both Dynamite Ride and Whoyougonnacall broke their maidens over the Del Mar polytrack, so both are still winless over real dirt.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mahalo Princess (ML 5-2)
# 8 Lucky S. J. (ML 9-2)
# 9 Mon Petite (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 1 Ina Mina (ML 10-1)
# 7 Peppy Bolly (ML 6-1)
Mahalo Princess won at this approximate class level on the main track at Santa Anita in June, and then defeated open company (non-state bred restricted) on the turf. Lifetime Mahalo Princess has finished in the Exacta in seven of her eight tries on real dirt.
Lucky S. J. should appreciate the return to state bred company, as both of her career Wins have come in state bred only events. Mon Petite also gets some real class relief here, as well as going first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with over a third of such.
Ina Mina took the Show against open company last time out, and also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; but that race was run over the Del Mar polytrack. Lifetime Ina Mina is one-for-five when competing on real dirt.
It's been over a year since Peppy Bolly squared off against state bred competition, but she was a winner that day, in a race at Santa Anita at today's distance of six furlongs.
RACE 8 - [S] The King Glorious $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Acceptance (ML 6-5)
B's
# 6 Pulmarack (ML 4-1)
C’s
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Afleet in Time (Morning Line 5-1)
# 5 Tiz Jolie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Cornbread Red (ML 2-1)
# 6 Dynamite Ride (ML 5-2)
# 7 Whoyougonnacall (ML 6-1)
None
Note the conditions for future reference, because you won't see it in the DRF Past Performances; this contest is for horses that do not have two lifetime Wins, making it a much weaker field than your typical Starter Allowance.
Cornbread Red is the Morning Line Favorite here, and the puzzle to be solved in handicapping this event is deciding what exactly to do with him. Cornbread Red has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (which is also the best career Beyer in this field) but it was earned on the Del Mar polytrack. In addition, Cornbread Red was facing state-bred competition in that contest; not the open company that several others in this field graduated against. Cornbread Red is facing winners for the first time; but, in a somewhat unusual development, so is every other runner in this field. Finally, Cornbread Red is trying two turns for the first time today; meanwhile, nearly all of his opponents today broke their maiden last time out at today's distance of one mile. I may be proven wrong later today, but I don't think Cornbread Red is the best horse in this field; nor do I think that he's one of the top three most likely winners in this field today.
Afleet in Time graduated in his second try last time out, at today's distance of a mile on the main track at Santa Anita, after failing to hit the board upstate on the Golden Gate grass. Tiz Jolie also graduated in an eight furlong contest at Santa Anita, crossing the wire that day ahead of Whoyougonnacall.
Dynamite Ride and Whoyougonnacall were both claimed out of their last respective races, so each will be going today for a barn other than the one for which they broke their maidens. Both Dynamite Ride and Whoyougonnacall broke their maidens over the Del Mar polytrack, so both are still winless over real dirt.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mahalo Princess (ML 5-2)
# 8 Lucky S. J. (ML 9-2)
# 9 Mon Petite (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 1 Ina Mina (ML 10-1)
# 7 Peppy Bolly (ML 6-1)
Mahalo Princess won at this approximate class level on the main track at Santa Anita in June, and then defeated open company (non-state bred restricted) on the turf. Lifetime Mahalo Princess has finished in the Exacta in seven of her eight tries on real dirt.
Lucky S. J. should appreciate the return to state bred company, as both of her career Wins have come in state bred only events. Mon Petite also gets some real class relief here, as well as going first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with over a third of such.
Ina Mina took the Show against open company last time out, and also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; but that race was run over the Del Mar polytrack. Lifetime Ina Mina is one-for-five when competing on real dirt.
It's been over a year since Peppy Bolly squared off against state bred competition, but she was a winner that day, in a race at Santa Anita at today's distance of six furlongs.
RACE 8 - [S] The King Glorious $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Acceptance (ML 6-5)
B's
# 6 Pulmarack (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Kluszewski (ML 4-1)
# 4 Mischief Clem (ML 5-2)
Acceptance is the only prior stakes winner in this field, having taken The Golden State Juvenile his last time out. Pulmarack, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the only runner in this field with a win at today's distance of eight furlongs.
Mischief Clem took the Show in The Golden State Juvenile, and just missed defeating open (non-state restricted) Optional Claiming company his next time out. Kluszewski is the only entrant in this race with game day experience over the Los Al track, having both a Win and a Place in his two tries at this venue.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Cat One (ML 5-1)
# 8 Takeit Tothe Limit (ML 6-5)
B's
# 4 Indian Monkey (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Hot as a Cat (ML 6-1)
# 6 Heaveneleven (ML 20-1)
# 9 What We Doing (ML 12-1)
Cat One is a first time starter who has been working well over this track. Takeit Tothe Limit looks like a legitimate Favorite in this field; but keep in mind that Takeit Tothe Limit has already failed three times as the Post Time Favorite in his eight race career.
Toss the try over the synthetic surface and Indian Monkey has taken the Place in his last three tries at this class level or higher. Hot as a Cat showed early foot in each of his first two races; perhaps that'll carry him the whole five furlongs today.
Heaveneleven was gaining on the leader three starts back, making Heaveneleven the only runner in this field with a proven ability to come off the pace. What We Doing runs for a tag for the first time in his career.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 2,8,9 with 3 with 5,8 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7 with 2,8,9 with 3,6 with 4,5,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 1,7 with 3 with 5,8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 2,8,9 with 1,4 with 5,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 2,8,9 with 3 with 2,6,9 $9.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 13, 2014
12/13/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Fighter Squadron (Final Odds 7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Roman Tizzy (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Starlet - # 6 Take Charge Brandi (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Irish and Lucky (3.50) - "B" Selection
As sometimes happens, we had 'em all; but we didn't have 'em all together. Raising Fighter Squadron from a "C" to a "B", or Irish and Lucky from a "B" to an "A", would have enabled us to cash. As it was we were still alive entering to finale, and would have collected $159.15 for our fifty cent wager had # 7 Southern Owah (1.40*) been able to cross the wire first; but such was not to be, and when Southern Owah had to settle for the Place, all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $271.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Roman Tizzy (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Starlet - # 6 Take Charge Brandi (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Irish and Lucky (3.50) - "B" Selection
As sometimes happens, we had 'em all; but we didn't have 'em all together. Raising Fighter Squadron from a "C" to a "B", or Irish and Lucky from a "B" to an "A", would have enabled us to cash. As it was we were still alive entering to finale, and would have collected $159.15 for our fifty cent wager had # 7 Southern Owah (1.40*) been able to cross the wire first; but such was not to be, and when Southern Owah had to settle for the Place, all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $271.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/13/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
The forecast calls for plentiful sunshine today at Los Alamitos; a much different forecast from the plentiful rain that fell Friday in Southern California. Juvenile fillies take center stage today, as Saturday's feature race is the Grade 1 (No Longer Hollywood) Starlet, the third leg in the Late Pick Four that we'll be chasing.
RACE 6 - Alw 25000s - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Luckbox Sam (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Apollo Ten (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Fighter Squadron (ML 4-1)
# 3 McKenzies Way (ML 6-1)
Luckbox Sam looks to be the main speed in this one, and he has an excellent chance of getting loose on the lead. The bullet work last week at Santa Anita suggests that Luckbox Sam will be ready to fire.
Apollo Ten appeared to be over-matched his last time out, and should appreciate the class relief. Apollo Ten earned a Beyer Speed Figure his last time competing on the dirt (two starts back) that, if repeated, would make him an easy winner today.
Fighter Squadron makes just his second career start on real dirt, and his workout at Santa Anita on 12/7 suggests that he'll appreciate the surface switch. McKenzies Way looks to be rounding into form, though there may not be enough pace in this one for him to chase.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Roman Tizzy (ML 7-2
# 7 Valdirone (ML 5-2)
# 8 Urban Hunter (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 5 Night Badger (ML 6-1)
Roman Tizzy has a Win in his only previous try over this track, and took the Show at Santa Anita last time out at this approximate class level. Valdirone has two Wins in his last three races over a real dirt track, with both of those Wins coming here at Los Al. Urban Hunter was a winner in each of his last two races on real dirt, both against open (not state restricted) company.
Night Badger has shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and he could be forwardly placed early along side Urban Hunter.
RACE 8 - (F) The Starlet (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Achiever's Legacy (ML 5-1)
# 6 Take Charge Brandi (ML 9-5)
B's
# 3 Danette (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 4 Feathered (ML 2-1)
# 7 Maybellene (ML 5-1)
Achiever's Legacy looks to be rounding into form for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and should have plenty of pace here to close into. Take Charge Brandi has a pair of Graded Stakes Wins, which is two more than the rest of the field combined; but her most recent workout suggests that fatigue may be setting in.
Danette took a nice step forward when she moved off the synthetics and onto real dirt; expect this daughter of Curlin to be the one moving quickest as they get close to the wire.
Feathered had the whole length of the Santa Anita stretch to pass Take Charge Brandi in the BC Juvenile Fillies, but instead was passed by two others. Still, the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher must be respected. Maybellene is another who appears to be out-classed, but must be respected due to the Jockey / Trainer tandem, in this case being rider Rafael Bejarano with conditioner Bob Baffert.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Princess Brooklyn (ML 20-1)
# 3 Grandma Connie (ML 4-1)
# 9 Irish and Lucky (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 5 Ruby N Diamonds (ML 15-1)
# 8 Toonz (ML 20-1)
# 10 Mama'ssaturdaynite (ML 20-1)
Southern Owah took the Place at this class level two starts back, her last start on real dirt.
Princess Brooklyn is by a sire (Marino Marino) whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts. Princess Brooklyn is conditioned by Robert Lucas, who has won two of the last ten times that he's sent out a first time starter. The gaps in the workouts are a concern, but Princess Brooklyn should be ready to go at first asking.
Grandma Connie is owned and trained by Vann Belvoir, and appears to be well meant at this price. Irish and Lucky has been working well over this track for his return to competition after taking more than half a year off. Irish and Lucky should also appreciate the class relief that she's getting from her initial two starts.
Ruby N Diamonds is by Iron Cat, who gets approximately 20% winners from his debuting offspring. Mama'ssaturdaynite, another first time starter, shows steady works leading up to this one.
Toonz drops in for a tag in her second career start, and also gets to try real dirt for the first time. Interesting that Toonz's last work was from the gate; since she has race day experience, must presume that Trainer Jesus Enriquez is looking to train some early speed into his runner.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,3,6 with 2,3,7,9 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 1,6 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 4,7 with 7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 5,8,10 $18.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Alw 25000s - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Luckbox Sam (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Apollo Ten (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Fighter Squadron (ML 4-1)
# 3 McKenzies Way (ML 6-1)
Luckbox Sam looks to be the main speed in this one, and he has an excellent chance of getting loose on the lead. The bullet work last week at Santa Anita suggests that Luckbox Sam will be ready to fire.
Apollo Ten appeared to be over-matched his last time out, and should appreciate the class relief. Apollo Ten earned a Beyer Speed Figure his last time competing on the dirt (two starts back) that, if repeated, would make him an easy winner today.
Fighter Squadron makes just his second career start on real dirt, and his workout at Santa Anita on 12/7 suggests that he'll appreciate the surface switch. McKenzies Way looks to be rounding into form, though there may not be enough pace in this one for him to chase.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Roman Tizzy (ML 7-2
# 7 Valdirone (ML 5-2)
# 8 Urban Hunter (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 5 Night Badger (ML 6-1)
Roman Tizzy has a Win in his only previous try over this track, and took the Show at Santa Anita last time out at this approximate class level. Valdirone has two Wins in his last three races over a real dirt track, with both of those Wins coming here at Los Al. Urban Hunter was a winner in each of his last two races on real dirt, both against open (not state restricted) company.
Night Badger has shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and he could be forwardly placed early along side Urban Hunter.
RACE 8 - (F) The Starlet (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Achiever's Legacy (ML 5-1)
# 6 Take Charge Brandi (ML 9-5)
B's
# 3 Danette (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 4 Feathered (ML 2-1)
# 7 Maybellene (ML 5-1)
Achiever's Legacy looks to be rounding into form for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and should have plenty of pace here to close into. Take Charge Brandi has a pair of Graded Stakes Wins, which is two more than the rest of the field combined; but her most recent workout suggests that fatigue may be setting in.
Danette took a nice step forward when she moved off the synthetics and onto real dirt; expect this daughter of Curlin to be the one moving quickest as they get close to the wire.
Feathered had the whole length of the Santa Anita stretch to pass Take Charge Brandi in the BC Juvenile Fillies, but instead was passed by two others. Still, the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher must be respected. Maybellene is another who appears to be out-classed, but must be respected due to the Jockey / Trainer tandem, in this case being rider Rafael Bejarano with conditioner Bob Baffert.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Princess Brooklyn (ML 20-1)
# 3 Grandma Connie (ML 4-1)
# 9 Irish and Lucky (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 5 Ruby N Diamonds (ML 15-1)
# 8 Toonz (ML 20-1)
# 10 Mama'ssaturdaynite (ML 20-1)
Southern Owah took the Place at this class level two starts back, her last start on real dirt.
Princess Brooklyn is by a sire (Marino Marino) whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts. Princess Brooklyn is conditioned by Robert Lucas, who has won two of the last ten times that he's sent out a first time starter. The gaps in the workouts are a concern, but Princess Brooklyn should be ready to go at first asking.
Grandma Connie is owned and trained by Vann Belvoir, and appears to be well meant at this price. Irish and Lucky has been working well over this track for his return to competition after taking more than half a year off. Irish and Lucky should also appreciate the class relief that she's getting from her initial two starts.
Ruby N Diamonds is by Iron Cat, who gets approximately 20% winners from his debuting offspring. Mama'ssaturdaynite, another first time starter, shows steady works leading up to this one.
Toonz drops in for a tag in her second career start, and also gets to try real dirt for the first time. Interesting that Toonz's last work was from the gate; since she has race day experience, must presume that Trainer Jesus Enriquez is looking to train some early speed into his runner.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,3,6 with 2,3,7,9 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 1,6 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 4,7 with 7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 3,7,8 with 1,6 with 5,8,10 $18.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 7, 2014
12/7/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Sheeza Eyeopener (Final Odds 13.00) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Rough Passage (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Soviet Problem - # 4 My Fiona (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 She's Flush (8.90) - "C" Selection
# 1 Silk in Silver (0.70*) was game in the opening leg, grabbing the early lead and then fighting on through the stretch, but she just could not keep pace with Sheeza Eyeopener in the final strides, losing to that one by a length and three quarters. And that was the difference for us between cashing and not cashing, as a Win by Silk in Silver would have given us a ticket with three Aces and a "C", which would have been good enough to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Incidentally, if you didn't get to see it live, and even if you did, be sure to check out the reply of My Fiona winning The Soviet Problem Stakes. Just an incredibly gutsy effort on her part, refusing to lose to # 1 Heat the Rocks (2.70) even after being passed by that one in the stretch.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 4 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $558.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Rough Passage (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Soviet Problem - # 4 My Fiona (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 She's Flush (8.90) - "C" Selection
# 1 Silk in Silver (0.70*) was game in the opening leg, grabbing the early lead and then fighting on through the stretch, but she just could not keep pace with Sheeza Eyeopener in the final strides, losing to that one by a length and three quarters. And that was the difference for us between cashing and not cashing, as a Win by Silk in Silver would have given us a ticket with three Aces and a "C", which would have been good enough to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Incidentally, if you didn't get to see it live, and even if you did, be sure to check out the reply of My Fiona winning The Soviet Problem Stakes. Just an incredibly gutsy effort on her part, refusing to lose to # 1 Heat the Rocks (2.70) even after being passed by that one in the stretch.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 4 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $558.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/7/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Sunday and, um, that's pretty much all I've got for an introduction. So let's just get to it.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Silk in Silver (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Gelila (ML 8-1)
# 6 Wildy Excessive (ML 10-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Incredible Journey (ML 3-1)
Silk in Silver comes into today's contest riding a three race winning streak. Silk in Silver is moving up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures that she's earned in her last two starts (both two turns on real dirt) fit in well here.
Gelila's last two dirt starts were on this track at today's distance at this class level, and she missed by just a nose of winning them both. Wildly Excessive is two-for-two over this track; the only two Wins of her career. Note also that her most recent victory was at this class level.
In her last race over this track, Incredible Journey took the Show at this class level, less than a length behind Wildly Excessive and Gelila.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Rough Passage (ML 5-2)
# 5 Alamo (ML 2-1)
B's
# 8 Simon Kenton (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Easy Ten (ML 15-1)
# 7 Ten to Show (ML 6-1)
Rough Passage took a few steps back when he began facing older horses, but he seems to be rounding back into top form. Alamo makes his first start since August; but his workouts have been strong, and Trainer Richard Mandella does well with runners returning from a three-to-six month vacation.
Simon Kenton didn't like the grass his last time out, and should improve with a return to dirt. Easy Ten and Ten to Show are a pair of second-time starters going for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, whose chargers tend to significantly improve in the race following their debuts.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Soviet Problem $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Fiona (ML 8-5)
B's
# 3 Niassa (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Heat the Rocks (ML 2-1)
# 5 Princess Bertrando (ML 5-1)
My Fiona has a a pair of state-bred stakes wins, and she was capable enough to take the Show against open stakes company in the Landaluce. Niassa is the only runner in this contest besides My Fiona with multiple career wins.
Heat the Rocks tries winners for the first time after an impressive maiden win on the Del Mar plastic. Princess Bertrando took a big step forward her last time out on real dirt; perhaps she can build off that move.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Copper City (ML 9-2)
# 7 Runningwiththelute (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Norastone (ML 10-1)
# 6 Best In Class (ML 6-1)
# 8 Cin City Lady (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 She's Flush (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nothing to Hide (ML 6-1)
# 9 Maria Hooch (ML 15-1)
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
Copper City invades from the North, having won at this level two starts back, and just missing against more expensive last time out. Runningwiththelute has two career Wins and one career Place, all in her only three races over this track.
Norastone won a first level Allowance in Philadelphia back in January, but has only raced twice since. Norastone was well beaten in those two races, but she was also facing much stiffer competition than she's going to see here.
Best In Class ran huge wile breaking her maiden in her only prior start on dirt. Cin City Lady is the one most likely to be charging late if the issue is still in doubt. The "C's" are everybody else.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to change things up a bit; but just a bit. We'll still be playing our tickets via the Crist method, but we're going to combine all the "A" and "B" Selections together on one ticket; so we won't be shut out if we get one "A" with three "B's". So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5,8 with 3,4 with 1,5,6,7,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 1,7 with 4 with 5,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 1,5 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 3,4,9 $9.00
Total: $80.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Silk in Silver (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Gelila (ML 8-1)
# 6 Wildy Excessive (ML 10-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Incredible Journey (ML 3-1)
Silk in Silver comes into today's contest riding a three race winning streak. Silk in Silver is moving up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures that she's earned in her last two starts (both two turns on real dirt) fit in well here.
Gelila's last two dirt starts were on this track at today's distance at this class level, and she missed by just a nose of winning them both. Wildly Excessive is two-for-two over this track; the only two Wins of her career. Note also that her most recent victory was at this class level.
In her last race over this track, Incredible Journey took the Show at this class level, less than a length behind Wildly Excessive and Gelila.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Rough Passage (ML 5-2)
# 5 Alamo (ML 2-1)
B's
# 8 Simon Kenton (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Easy Ten (ML 15-1)
# 7 Ten to Show (ML 6-1)
Rough Passage took a few steps back when he began facing older horses, but he seems to be rounding back into top form. Alamo makes his first start since August; but his workouts have been strong, and Trainer Richard Mandella does well with runners returning from a three-to-six month vacation.
Simon Kenton didn't like the grass his last time out, and should improve with a return to dirt. Easy Ten and Ten to Show are a pair of second-time starters going for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, whose chargers tend to significantly improve in the race following their debuts.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Soviet Problem $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Fiona (ML 8-5)
B's
# 3 Niassa (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Heat the Rocks (ML 2-1)
# 5 Princess Bertrando (ML 5-1)
My Fiona has a a pair of state-bred stakes wins, and she was capable enough to take the Show against open stakes company in the Landaluce. Niassa is the only runner in this contest besides My Fiona with multiple career wins.
Heat the Rocks tries winners for the first time after an impressive maiden win on the Del Mar plastic. Princess Bertrando took a big step forward her last time out on real dirt; perhaps she can build off that move.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Copper City (ML 9-2)
# 7 Runningwiththelute (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Norastone (ML 10-1)
# 6 Best In Class (ML 6-1)
# 8 Cin City Lady (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 She's Flush (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nothing to Hide (ML 6-1)
# 9 Maria Hooch (ML 15-1)
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
Copper City invades from the North, having won at this level two starts back, and just missing against more expensive last time out. Runningwiththelute has two career Wins and one career Place, all in her only three races over this track.
Norastone won a first level Allowance in Philadelphia back in January, but has only raced twice since. Norastone was well beaten in those two races, but she was also facing much stiffer competition than she's going to see here.
Best In Class ran huge wile breaking her maiden in her only prior start on dirt. Cin City Lady is the one most likely to be charging late if the issue is still in doubt. The "C's" are everybody else.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to change things up a bit; but just a bit. We'll still be playing our tickets via the Crist method, but we're going to combine all the "A" and "B" Selections together on one ticket; so we won't be shut out if we get one "A" with three "B's". So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5,8 with 3,4 with 1,5,6,7,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 1,7 with 4 with 5,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 1,5 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 3,4,9 $9.00
Total: $80.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 6, 2014
12/6/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Fascinating (Final Odds 1.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Bayakoa - # 3 Tiz Midnight (0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Horse Laugh (24.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Puerto Williams (68.60) - No Selection
Okay; so perhaps the sequence wasn't so formful after all.
It started out formful enough; I mean, a Bob Baffert favorite wins, and then another Bob Baffert favorite wins, and you figure it's just a typical racing day in SoCal. But then things, well, changed.
Anyway, as I wrote in the preview, there was no point in spreading wide just for the sake of spreading wide, because simply stabbing at additional horses wasn't going to help. For while I should have considered Horse Laugh as a possibility when looking for a late runner in Race 8, there was no way I was going to have Puerto Williams in the finale on my tickets.
Puerto Williams was making his nineteenth career start as a Maiden, and had never even finished second prior to today (he had taken the Show once, just once, in those eighteen prior attempts). Then add in that Puerto Williams had competed at this $20k level in each of his last ten races, so it wasn't even a question of him trying to find a class level where he fit. And then add to that the fact that, in his last four races, Puerto Williams had been beaten at this class level by a combined margin of over fifty lengths. The bottom line is that I wasn't using Puerto Williams even if I was betting your money.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 3 / 11 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $5,114.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Bayakoa - # 3 Tiz Midnight (0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Horse Laugh (24.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Puerto Williams (68.60) - No Selection
Okay; so perhaps the sequence wasn't so formful after all.
It started out formful enough; I mean, a Bob Baffert favorite wins, and then another Bob Baffert favorite wins, and you figure it's just a typical racing day in SoCal. But then things, well, changed.
Anyway, as I wrote in the preview, there was no point in spreading wide just for the sake of spreading wide, because simply stabbing at additional horses wasn't going to help. For while I should have considered Horse Laugh as a possibility when looking for a late runner in Race 8, there was no way I was going to have Puerto Williams in the finale on my tickets.
Puerto Williams was making his nineteenth career start as a Maiden, and had never even finished second prior to today (he had taken the Show once, just once, in those eighteen prior attempts). Then add in that Puerto Williams had competed at this $20k level in each of his last ten races, so it wasn't even a question of him trying to find a class level where he fit. And then add to that the fact that, in his last four races, Puerto Williams had been beaten at this class level by a combined margin of over fifty lengths. The bottom line is that I wasn't using Puerto Williams even if I was betting your money.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 3 / 11 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $5,114.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/6/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
The thoroughbreds are back at Los Alamitos for the Advent meet. The skies are cloudy but (hopefully) the track should remain fast. We'll be focusing on Saturday's Late Pick Four (as, unlike Del Mar, Los Al features two Pick Fours on the card); so having confirmed that I remembered to put that designation in the title, let's get to it.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Live for Now (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Fascinating (ML 2-1)
# 4 Nicegirlsfnishlast (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 Lady Bugatti (ML 5-1)
Live for Now is making her tenth attempt at breaking her maiden, but this is just her fourth try on real dirt; and of those four, she's taken the Place three times, including once in the Grade 2 Summer Oaks. Live for Now is the only runner in this field to have earned a Beyer Speed Figure higher than eighty, and she's done it three times.
Fascinating just missed in a pair of Grade Ones back in 2013, losing the Del Mar Debutante and the Chandelier by a combined margin of a length and a quarter. Fascinating goes third off the extended layoff for trainer Bob Baffert.
Nicegirlsfnishlast is trying dirt for the first time today in her seventh career start. No good reason why she shouldn't handle the surface switch, as her sire, First Samurai, was a multiple Graded Stakes winner on the dirt.
Lady Bugatti is the "other" Baffert. Lady Bugatti has finished in the money the last two times that she's gone around two turns.
RACE 7 - (F) The Bayakoa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Yahilwa (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Tiz Midnight (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Legacy (ML 4-1)
# 6 Valiant Emilia (Per) (ML 4-1)
Yahilwa does a quick turnaround after winning the $200k Treasure Chest just two Saturday's ago. If she can maintain her form from that event, she should win here going away.
Tiz Midnight gets some class relief here as she exits as pair of Grade Ones. Tiz Midnight and Legacy look to be the front runners; if one of them falters early, the other could be impossible to catch. Yahilway should be sitting a good stalking trip, ready to pounce at the halfway point in the stretch. And if it should all fall apart up front, Valiant Emilia (Per) is the one most likely to still be running when they hit the wire.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kafister (ML 7-2)
# 5 Door's Open (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Roundupthelute (ML 5-1)
# 7 Pulla Train (ML 8-1)
# 9 Papa Turf (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 8 Hadfunlastnight (ML 5-1)
# 10 Fly Boy Roy (9-2)
Kafister misses by a nose of entering this contest with a four race winning streak. Kafister is five-for-seven in his career on real dirt, and has never finished out of the money on the God-made stuff. Today's event is a step up the class ladder for Kafister, but his Beyers indicates that he can compete at this level.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Live for Now (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Fascinating (ML 2-1)
# 4 Nicegirlsfnishlast (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 Lady Bugatti (ML 5-1)
Live for Now is making her tenth attempt at breaking her maiden, but this is just her fourth try on real dirt; and of those four, she's taken the Place three times, including once in the Grade 2 Summer Oaks. Live for Now is the only runner in this field to have earned a Beyer Speed Figure higher than eighty, and she's done it three times.
Fascinating just missed in a pair of Grade Ones back in 2013, losing the Del Mar Debutante and the Chandelier by a combined margin of a length and a quarter. Fascinating goes third off the extended layoff for trainer Bob Baffert.
Nicegirlsfnishlast is trying dirt for the first time today in her seventh career start. No good reason why she shouldn't handle the surface switch, as her sire, First Samurai, was a multiple Graded Stakes winner on the dirt.
Lady Bugatti is the "other" Baffert. Lady Bugatti has finished in the money the last two times that she's gone around two turns.
RACE 7 - (F) The Bayakoa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Yahilwa (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Tiz Midnight (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Legacy (ML 4-1)
# 6 Valiant Emilia (Per) (ML 4-1)
Yahilwa does a quick turnaround after winning the $200k Treasure Chest just two Saturday's ago. If she can maintain her form from that event, she should win here going away.
Tiz Midnight gets some class relief here as she exits as pair of Grade Ones. Tiz Midnight and Legacy look to be the front runners; if one of them falters early, the other could be impossible to catch. Yahilway should be sitting a good stalking trip, ready to pounce at the halfway point in the stretch. And if it should all fall apart up front, Valiant Emilia (Per) is the one most likely to still be running when they hit the wire.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kafister (ML 7-2)
# 5 Door's Open (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Roundupthelute (ML 5-1)
# 7 Pulla Train (ML 8-1)
# 9 Papa Turf (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 8 Hadfunlastnight (ML 5-1)
# 10 Fly Boy Roy (9-2)
Kafister misses by a nose of entering this contest with a four race winning streak. Kafister is five-for-seven in his career on real dirt, and has never finished out of the money on the God-made stuff. Today's event is a step up the class ladder for Kafister, but his Beyers indicates that he can compete at this level.
Door's Open missed winning by a head two starts back at this approximate class level, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that, if repeated, would almost definitely get the job done today.
Roundupthelute, a stakes winner last year as a juvenile, makes his first start of 2014 here. Trainer Bob Baffert tends to have his runners ready right off the bench after a prolonged rest.
Pulla Train is two-for-three lifetime on real dirt, with both of those coming in Arizona last December. This may be too tough a class test for Pulla Train to pass; but he's quick, and he just might get loose on the lead.
Papa Turf seems to have been poorly named, as he bombed last time out in his only career turf race. Papa Turf has, however, shown himself to be competitive on dirt at this level, and his workouts indicate that he's going to be ready to run today.
Hadfunlastnight misses by a neck of having won two of his last three. Fly Boy Roy is the one to watch late.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Beach Fever (ML 7-5)
B's
# 5 Badwater (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 4 Ace Deuce (ML 10-1)
# 6 Salt of the Earth (ML 7-2)
Beach Fever runs for a tag for the first time in his career, having earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last four races that would be a career best for any other runner in this field. Badwater is also in for a tag for the first time in his career, and should appreciate getting off the grass.
Ace Deuce tries real dirt for the first time. Salt of the Earth took the Place at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. We haven't used a lot of runners today; which, when all is said and done, will have been proven to be very wise or very foolish. Anyway, I didn't see any point in spreading wide just for the sake of spreading wide; if I haven't handicapped this sequence right, then stabbing at additional horses isn't likely to help. So, with that, playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$2.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $5.00
A's with One B
$1.50 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $6.00
$1.50 P4: 7 with 3 with 3,5 with 9 $3.00
$1.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 4,7,9 with 1 $4.50
$1.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 5 $3.00
A's with Two B's
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 3 with 3,5 with 9 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 4,7.9 with 9 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 3,5 with 5 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3 with 4,7,9 with 9 $3.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3 with 3,5 with 5 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 4,7,9 with 5 $3.00
A's with One C
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 2,6 with 3,5 with 9 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 8,10 with 9 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 4,6 $4.00
Total: $55.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, December 5, 2014
12/4/14 LRC R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Back on September 21 Paralyzing Eyes, the Bruce Jackson mare that we've been following since June 2012, made the fourteenth start of her career; but her first ever at Los Alamitos Race Course. Paralyzing Eyes, with Jockey Iggy Puglisi on her back, ran the best race of her career that day, taking the Place at Final Odds of 46.30-1. On Thursday Paralyzing Eyes returned to Los Alamitos to see if she could duplicate that effort in her second career start over the Los Al main track. However, despite once again having Jockey Iggy Puglisi holding the reins, she could not.
Paralyzing Eyes (23.00), breaking from Post Position # 6 in Race 2, flashed some early speed, but then retreated the rest of the way, losing more ground with each successive call, until finally crossing the wire seventh, over a dozen lengths behind the winner, Vocalist (6.40). The loss brings Paralyzing Eyes career mark to oh-for-seventeen.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Paralyzing Eyes (23.00), breaking from Post Position # 6 in Race 2, flashed some early speed, but then retreated the rest of the way, losing more ground with each successive call, until finally crossing the wire seventh, over a dozen lengths behind the winner, Vocalist (6.40). The loss brings Paralyzing Eyes career mark to oh-for-seventeen.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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