RACE 6 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Taris (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 6 More Complexity (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jo Jo Warrior (ML 4-1)
Taris wired the field in the Grade 2 Raven Run last time out, over a Keeneland track that seemed to be favoring closers. A repeat of either of her last two efforts would get the job done today.
More Complexity has been showing steady improvement throughout the year; whether that's because she's been getting better as she matures, or because she hasn't had to compete on real dirt since March, remains to be seen. Jo Jo Warrior should appreciate the turn back in distance, as well as not having to face Untapable again.
RACE 7 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Heart to Heart (ML 5-2)
# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 10 Long On Value (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Red Outlaw (ML 6-1)
Heart to Heart enters this contest on a three race winning streak, including a pair of Graded Stakes at Churchill Downs. Heart to Heart may have to prove today that he can win without having the early lead. Home Run Kitten and Long On Value are Graded Stakes winners over this turf course, though neither of those victories came at today's distance. Red Outlaw has looked good against lesser competition, so the question here is can he handle the step up the class ladder.
RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Chitu (ML 4-1)
# 8 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
C’s
# 4 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 30-1)
If thoroughbred racing was run by Vince McMahon, # 7 Tamarando (ML 12-1), Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's other entrant, would make a sharp left turn right out the gate, wiping out at least two of Trainer Bob Baffert's entrants, # 6 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) and # 5 Pimpernel (ML 10-1); which in turn would be followed by a no holds barred battle royal, involving jockeys, trainers, owners, and at least a few grooms. And yes, I would pay to see that.
Anyway, Shared Belief is much the best horse in this field; but Chitu will be the inside speed, and that's always dangerous on a fast dirt track, especially the fast dirt track that hosts The Malibu every Boxing Day. Rprettyboyfloyd is on the ticket because maybe this is the day that he finally lives up to the potential he's shown since he took the Place behind Bayern in their mutual debut back in January.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Scattagirl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 8 Paulina's Love (ML 7-2)
# 13 Luvuryan (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 9 Indian Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Elle Sueno (ML 8-1)
Scattergirl gets another crack at the Santa Anita grass, this time without having to negotiate the hill. Foolish Ways (Ire) goes back to competing against non-winners after trying stakes company last time out in her North American debut.
Paulina's Love is another that tried to graduate against stakes company last time out. Paulina's Love took the Place in her two prior tries against fellow maidens. Luvuryan is on the Also-Eligible List, and therefore may not draw in; but if she does make it to the gate, she should be live.
Indian Princess took the Show last time out, and may improve with the switch to turf. Elle Sueno took a big step forward in her second career start last time out, and now gets to try the grass for the first time.
Okay, that's the analysis. Keep in mind that I'm doing this much earlier than I normally do, so I don't know who will be scratched, or (as in the case of Luvuryan in the finale) who might draw in. So with that caveat, taking the above and applying the usual Crist method, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 2,8 with 5,7,8,13 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 4 with 5,7,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7,9,10 with 2,8 with 9,10 $6.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:47 EST / 2:47 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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