RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Live for Now (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Fascinating (ML 2-1)
# 4 Nicegirlsfnishlast (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 Lady Bugatti (ML 5-1)
Live for Now is making her tenth attempt at breaking her maiden, but this is just her fourth try on real dirt; and of those four, she's taken the Place three times, including once in the Grade 2 Summer Oaks. Live for Now is the only runner in this field to have earned a Beyer Speed Figure higher than eighty, and she's done it three times.
Fascinating just missed in a pair of Grade Ones back in 2013, losing the Del Mar Debutante and the Chandelier by a combined margin of a length and a quarter. Fascinating goes third off the extended layoff for trainer Bob Baffert.
Nicegirlsfnishlast is trying dirt for the first time today in her seventh career start. No good reason why she shouldn't handle the surface switch, as her sire, First Samurai, was a multiple Graded Stakes winner on the dirt.
Lady Bugatti is the "other" Baffert. Lady Bugatti has finished in the money the last two times that she's gone around two turns.
RACE 7 - (F) The Bayakoa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Yahilwa (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Tiz Midnight (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Legacy (ML 4-1)
# 6 Valiant Emilia (Per) (ML 4-1)
Yahilwa does a quick turnaround after winning the $200k Treasure Chest just two Saturday's ago. If she can maintain her form from that event, she should win here going away.
Tiz Midnight gets some class relief here as she exits as pair of Grade Ones. Tiz Midnight and Legacy look to be the front runners; if one of them falters early, the other could be impossible to catch. Yahilway should be sitting a good stalking trip, ready to pounce at the halfway point in the stretch. And if it should all fall apart up front, Valiant Emilia (Per) is the one most likely to still be running when they hit the wire.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kafister (ML 7-2)
# 5 Door's Open (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Roundupthelute (ML 5-1)
# 7 Pulla Train (ML 8-1)
# 9 Papa Turf (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 8 Hadfunlastnight (ML 5-1)
# 10 Fly Boy Roy (9-2)
Kafister misses by a nose of entering this contest with a four race winning streak. Kafister is five-for-seven in his career on real dirt, and has never finished out of the money on the God-made stuff. Today's event is a step up the class ladder for Kafister, but his Beyers indicates that he can compete at this level.
Door's Open missed winning by a head two starts back at this approximate class level, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that, if repeated, would almost definitely get the job done today.
Roundupthelute, a stakes winner last year as a juvenile, makes his first start of 2014 here. Trainer Bob Baffert tends to have his runners ready right off the bench after a prolonged rest.
Pulla Train is two-for-three lifetime on real dirt, with both of those coming in Arizona last December. This may be too tough a class test for Pulla Train to pass; but he's quick, and he just might get loose on the lead.
Papa Turf seems to have been poorly named, as he bombed last time out in his only career turf race. Papa Turf has, however, shown himself to be competitive on dirt at this level, and his workouts indicate that he's going to be ready to run today.
Hadfunlastnight misses by a neck of having won two of his last three. Fly Boy Roy is the one to watch late.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Beach Fever (ML 7-5)
B's
# 5 Badwater (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 4 Ace Deuce (ML 10-1)
# 6 Salt of the Earth (ML 7-2)
Beach Fever runs for a tag for the first time in his career, having earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last four races that would be a career best for any other runner in this field. Badwater is also in for a tag for the first time in his career, and should appreciate getting off the grass.
Ace Deuce tries real dirt for the first time. Salt of the Earth took the Place at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. We haven't used a lot of runners today; which, when all is said and done, will have been proven to be very wise or very foolish. Anyway, I didn't see any point in spreading wide just for the sake of spreading wide; if I haven't handicapped this sequence right, then stabbing at additional horses isn't likely to help. So, with that, playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$2.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $5.00
A's with One B
$1.50 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $6.00
$1.50 P4: 7 with 3 with 3,5 with 9 $3.00
$1.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 4,7,9 with 1 $4.50
$1.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 5 $3.00
A's with Two B's
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 3 with 3,5 with 9 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 4,7.9 with 9 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 3,5 with 5 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3 with 4,7,9 with 9 $3.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3 with 3,5 with 5 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 4,7,9 with 5 $3.00
A's with One C
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,5 with 9 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 2,6 with 3,5 with 9 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 8,10 with 9 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 3,5 with 4,6 $4.00
Total: $55.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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