City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following, made her first start since May 31 Saturday, taking the Place in Race 6 at Pleasanton. City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 8.80 in the five and a half furlong dirt sprint, carded for $8,000 Claimers (NW2 L X - Maiden, Claiming, And Starter Races For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered). City Chapel was out sprinted early, and was fifth (two and three quarter lengths back) coming into the stretch, but closed well to finish second, less that two lengths behind the winner, Luckywiththeladies (2.80).
For the punters, City Chapel's finish was worth $6.60 for Place and $3.60 for Show. For his connections, City Chapel's effort was worth $2,850 in purse money. Since being claimed for $4,000 last August, City Chapel has competed fourteen times for the Trujillo barn, winning twice, with four Place finishes, and three Shows. City Chapel's total purse earnings since being claimed by Trujillo stands at $25,545.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Sunday, June 23, 2013
6/22/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results
Our single single did not win, our longshot backup ran dead last, and we wound up with only one winner in four. But the giant cloud we laid did have a silver lining.
RACE 8
We advised playing # 4 Night Maneuver (Final Odds 7.30) at any odds above 9-2; hopefully you all heeded that advice, as it would prove to be our only correct call of the day. Note that we weren't the only ones with an eye on this gelding, as Trainer Gary Contessa scooped him up for the $62,500 claiming price.
RACE 9
We went five deep in this one; it wasn't enough; not enough by a neck; as # 5 Noosh's Tale (5.00) couldn't quite get to # 11 Lawyer Jim (25.25). Had this been our only loss it would have been tough to take; but later events would show this to simply be where it all began to unravel.
RACE 10
# 2 Dreaming of Julia (0.20*) slept walked (sleepwalked?) through the Mother Goose Stakes; it's a testament to her overall ability that she was still able to take the Place despite making no real effort to run during most of the event. Since the Todd Pletcher barn isn't known for sending horses out onto the track that aren't in condition to win, it can be presumed that Dreaming of Julia has (at least, for the time being) lost interest in competing.
Congratulations to the connections of # 3 Close Hatches (4.30) and to the filly herself, who put in a fine effort in winning comfortably by over seven lengths. And, for the record, I did throw a literal buck on # 5 Sister Slate (15.70) who showed some early interest, but decided to call it a day long before they came to the wire.
RACE 11
We went three deep in this one, and all three found their way into the Superfecta. Unfortunately, they filled the bottom three slots of the Super; as we did not cover the horse on top, # 6 Sir Leslie (9.90), who passed # 9 Mike and Rob (3.85) in the stretch to win by a neck. For Sir Leslie, this was not just his first Win, but his first in the money finish, in this his eighth career start; a career that included three prior tries on the Belmont turf, along with four previous attempts at this distance (again, without ever finishing better than fourth). Perhaps the difference this time for Sir Leslie was the presence for the first time of Jockey Junior Alvarado; remember we saw this same thing in last Saturday's finale, with Alvarado guiding Song of Aspen (11.60) home to victory.
So in the final tally we had just one winner in four tries; but, if you're only going to have one winner, it's good for it to be the one that you advised everyone to play separately. As for the full winning sequence, those who correctly played 4 / 11 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $6,774.50 for every fifty cents that they wagered. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8
We advised playing # 4 Night Maneuver (Final Odds 7.30) at any odds above 9-2; hopefully you all heeded that advice, as it would prove to be our only correct call of the day. Note that we weren't the only ones with an eye on this gelding, as Trainer Gary Contessa scooped him up for the $62,500 claiming price.
RACE 9
We went five deep in this one; it wasn't enough; not enough by a neck; as # 5 Noosh's Tale (5.00) couldn't quite get to # 11 Lawyer Jim (25.25). Had this been our only loss it would have been tough to take; but later events would show this to simply be where it all began to unravel.
RACE 10
# 2 Dreaming of Julia (0.20*) slept walked (sleepwalked?) through the Mother Goose Stakes; it's a testament to her overall ability that she was still able to take the Place despite making no real effort to run during most of the event. Since the Todd Pletcher barn isn't known for sending horses out onto the track that aren't in condition to win, it can be presumed that Dreaming of Julia has (at least, for the time being) lost interest in competing.
Congratulations to the connections of # 3 Close Hatches (4.30) and to the filly herself, who put in a fine effort in winning comfortably by over seven lengths. And, for the record, I did throw a literal buck on # 5 Sister Slate (15.70) who showed some early interest, but decided to call it a day long before they came to the wire.
RACE 11
We went three deep in this one, and all three found their way into the Superfecta. Unfortunately, they filled the bottom three slots of the Super; as we did not cover the horse on top, # 6 Sir Leslie (9.90), who passed # 9 Mike and Rob (3.85) in the stretch to win by a neck. For Sir Leslie, this was not just his first Win, but his first in the money finish, in this his eighth career start; a career that included three prior tries on the Belmont turf, along with four previous attempts at this distance (again, without ever finishing better than fourth). Perhaps the difference this time for Sir Leslie was the presence for the first time of Jockey Junior Alvarado; remember we saw this same thing in last Saturday's finale, with Alvarado guiding Song of Aspen (11.60) home to victory.
So in the final tally we had just one winner in four tries; but, if you're only going to have one winner, it's good for it to be the one that you advised everyone to play separately. As for the full winning sequence, those who correctly played 4 / 11 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $6,774.50 for every fifty cents that they wagered. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 22, 2013
6/22/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Saturday, Mother Goose Day at Belmont Park in New York. The track is Fast and the turf is Firm, and while the forecast calls for a lot of clouds, there shouldn't be any rain on today's parades. So with all that, let's take a look at the Late Pick Four:
RACE 8
# 4 Night Maneuver (Morning Line 10-1) is the horse in this field that interests me most. If you toss out Night Maneuver's last (when he tried to go seven furlongs, only to tire in the drive) and look at the half dozen prior (all at today's distance of six furlongs) you'll see a streak of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures (71 / 73 / 80 / 84 / 87 / 95); note that the last is greater than the Beyer Par for this class level. Factor in that Night Maneuver has crossed the wire first two of the three times that he's competed over the main Belmont track, and his Morning Line odds look extremely generous. I expect to go six deep in this leg for my Pick Four play; but if I were to recommend a strong value play in this sequence, I would advise playing Night Maneuver to Win at any odds above 9-2.
RACE 9
# 3 With Exultation (ML 5-2) missed by just a length his last time out, which was his first try against winners. With Exultation was sired by Kitten's Joy, and those cats tend to be tough on the grass.
# 4 In My Eyes (ML 12-1) makes his third start of the form cycle, and picks up Rosario for the ride. Expect In My Eyes to get first run at the early leaders as they come out of the final turn.
# 5 Noosh's Tale (ML 4-1) just missed at this level his last time out, finishing a neck behind Royal Blessing (who came back to win Race 8 here Friday).
# 8 Toy Cannon (ML 7-2) was fourth (two lengths back) to Noosh's Tale his last time out, in the aforementioned contest with Royal Blessing. Two back it was Toy Cannon's turn to take the Place while Noosh's Tale finished fourth. Toy Cannon's Beyers in his last four outings have been in the mid-to-upper seventies, making him competitive with the best of this bunch.
# 10 River Time (ML 8-1) goes for the first time for Trainer Steve Asmussen; this will also be River Time's first race with John Velazquez on his back. River Time has finished in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Belmont grass.
RACE 10 - The Mother Goose (Grade 1)
# 2 Dreaming of Julia (ML 1-2) looks like an absolute standout. She’s the only one in the field of five with a Grade 1 victory, and one of only two in the group with a Grade 2 win (# 3 Close Hatches (ML 7-2), winner of the Gazelle in April, is the other) . Dreaming of Julia has earned Beyer Speed Figures in her last three races of 93 / 114 / 93; of the other four horses in the field, only Marathon Lady (ML 5-1) has ever earned a Beyer above 90, having picked up a 92 her last time out while taking the Place in the Black Eyed Susan.
I’ll be using Dreaming of Julia as a free spot in my Pick Four plays; but I may throw a buck or two on # 5 Sister Slate (ML 20-1) to Win. Toss out her last (when she was competing against older) and Sister Slate shows a sequence of steadily increasing Beyers to go along with the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for the distance. Getting Lasix for the first time may just give Sister Slate the boost she needs to get herself into the mix if Dreaming of Julia fails to fire.
RACE 11
# 8 Face the Race (ML 3-1) needed more distance his last time out, when he disappointed as the odds-on favorite at seven furlongs. He'll get that added real estate today; and if he can cover it as he did when competing at this level two back at Gulfstream Park, look for Face the Race to be in the mix at the wire.
# 9 Mike and Rob (ML 7-2) has proven his ability to compete at this level, and owns the best last out Beyer in the field. If Mike and Rob finally figures out that the goal is to be ahead of the pack, rather than with the pack, he could romp against this bunch.
# 12 Post Pattern (5-1) certainly has the breeding (as measured by his Tomlinson Ratings for both Turf and Turf Dst) to win at this level; but he's disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six races. This will be Post Pattern's first time competing with Lasix; perhaps that will make the difference today.
I'm going to take advantage of the opportunity that comes with singling a horse of the quality of Dreaming of Julia, and just go caveman style and make all contenders A's. It'll make the ticket more expensive than I prefer; but if Dreaming of Julia gives it her best today, then I really like our chances of cashing when the day is done.
So with that, our fifty cent ticket is as follows:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
RACE 10: 2
RACE 11: 8, 9, 12
TOTAL COST: $45.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:45 EDT / 1:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8
# 4 Night Maneuver (Morning Line 10-1) is the horse in this field that interests me most. If you toss out Night Maneuver's last (when he tried to go seven furlongs, only to tire in the drive) and look at the half dozen prior (all at today's distance of six furlongs) you'll see a streak of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures (71 / 73 / 80 / 84 / 87 / 95); note that the last is greater than the Beyer Par for this class level. Factor in that Night Maneuver has crossed the wire first two of the three times that he's competed over the main Belmont track, and his Morning Line odds look extremely generous. I expect to go six deep in this leg for my Pick Four play; but if I were to recommend a strong value play in this sequence, I would advise playing Night Maneuver to Win at any odds above 9-2.
RACE 9
# 3 With Exultation (ML 5-2) missed by just a length his last time out, which was his first try against winners. With Exultation was sired by Kitten's Joy, and those cats tend to be tough on the grass.
# 4 In My Eyes (ML 12-1) makes his third start of the form cycle, and picks up Rosario for the ride. Expect In My Eyes to get first run at the early leaders as they come out of the final turn.
# 5 Noosh's Tale (ML 4-1) just missed at this level his last time out, finishing a neck behind Royal Blessing (who came back to win Race 8 here Friday).
# 8 Toy Cannon (ML 7-2) was fourth (two lengths back) to Noosh's Tale his last time out, in the aforementioned contest with Royal Blessing. Two back it was Toy Cannon's turn to take the Place while Noosh's Tale finished fourth. Toy Cannon's Beyers in his last four outings have been in the mid-to-upper seventies, making him competitive with the best of this bunch.
# 10 River Time (ML 8-1) goes for the first time for Trainer Steve Asmussen; this will also be River Time's first race with John Velazquez on his back. River Time has finished in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Belmont grass.
RACE 10 - The Mother Goose (Grade 1)
# 2 Dreaming of Julia (ML 1-2) looks like an absolute standout. She’s the only one in the field of five with a Grade 1 victory, and one of only two in the group with a Grade 2 win (# 3 Close Hatches (ML 7-2), winner of the Gazelle in April, is the other) . Dreaming of Julia has earned Beyer Speed Figures in her last three races of 93 / 114 / 93; of the other four horses in the field, only Marathon Lady (ML 5-1) has ever earned a Beyer above 90, having picked up a 92 her last time out while taking the Place in the Black Eyed Susan.
I’ll be using Dreaming of Julia as a free spot in my Pick Four plays; but I may throw a buck or two on # 5 Sister Slate (ML 20-1) to Win. Toss out her last (when she was competing against older) and Sister Slate shows a sequence of steadily increasing Beyers to go along with the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for the distance. Getting Lasix for the first time may just give Sister Slate the boost she needs to get herself into the mix if Dreaming of Julia fails to fire.
RACE 11
# 8 Face the Race (ML 3-1) needed more distance his last time out, when he disappointed as the odds-on favorite at seven furlongs. He'll get that added real estate today; and if he can cover it as he did when competing at this level two back at Gulfstream Park, look for Face the Race to be in the mix at the wire.
# 9 Mike and Rob (ML 7-2) has proven his ability to compete at this level, and owns the best last out Beyer in the field. If Mike and Rob finally figures out that the goal is to be ahead of the pack, rather than with the pack, he could romp against this bunch.
# 12 Post Pattern (5-1) certainly has the breeding (as measured by his Tomlinson Ratings for both Turf and Turf Dst) to win at this level; but he's disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six races. This will be Post Pattern's first time competing with Lasix; perhaps that will make the difference today.
I'm going to take advantage of the opportunity that comes with singling a horse of the quality of Dreaming of Julia, and just go caveman style and make all contenders A's. It'll make the ticket more expensive than I prefer; but if Dreaming of Julia gives it her best today, then I really like our chances of cashing when the day is done.
So with that, our fifty cent ticket is as follows:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
RACE 10: 2
RACE 11: 8, 9, 12
TOTAL COST: $45.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:45 EDT / 1:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, June 16, 2013
6/16/13 Belmont Park - Two To Watch
Checking Sunday's charts for Belmont Park, I see a couple of horses that I think we'd do well to add to our Watch Lists.
Pete and David - Finished 7th in Race 10 ($20k Mdn Clm) at Final Odds of 13.70; yet got claimed by Trainer Bruce Levine. As regular readers of this blog know, I’m fascinated by longshot claims, especially those where the horse did not run well in the claimed race (because it means that the betting public was correct in their assessment of the horse’s ability to win at that class level; and that the new trainer isn’t getting a bargain, but will rather have to improve the horse’s ability to compete in order to make the claim profitable).
Hurricane Jackie - Three year old filly broke her maiden for Trainer Todd Pletcher in Race 5 by covering nine furlongs on the inner turf course in 1:50.11. Two races later a listed stakes over the same turf course run at the same nine furlongs distance would be won by a three year old filly in 1:50.74. Caution is advised as final times on grass can be misleading; but I think the comparison shows that Hurricane Jackie is ready to successfully compete her next time out against winners.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Pete and David - Finished 7th in Race 10 ($20k Mdn Clm) at Final Odds of 13.70; yet got claimed by Trainer Bruce Levine. As regular readers of this blog know, I’m fascinated by longshot claims, especially those where the horse did not run well in the claimed race (because it means that the betting public was correct in their assessment of the horse’s ability to win at that class level; and that the new trainer isn’t getting a bargain, but will rather have to improve the horse’s ability to compete in order to make the claim profitable).
Hurricane Jackie - Three year old filly broke her maiden for Trainer Todd Pletcher in Race 5 by covering nine furlongs on the inner turf course in 1:50.11. Two races later a listed stakes over the same turf course run at the same nine furlongs distance would be won by a three year old filly in 1:50.74. Caution is advised as final times on grass can be misleading; but I think the comparison shows that Hurricane Jackie is ready to successfully compete her next time out against winners.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 15, 2013
6/15/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results
Well, they all figured; but there was no figuring them all together.
Saturday's Race 7 at Belmont Park saw our key horse and "A" contender # 6 Horatio (Final Odds 2.15*; note that the public agreed with our assessment that the Morning Line odds were way too generous) fight against the bit trying to get the early lead that he wanted and we were hoping for. But Jockey Junior Alvarado had other ideas and held him back, not letting him run until the drive; by which time it was too late, as Horatio had already used all his energy fighting his rider in the early going. Horatio would move up from fifth to take the Show, but the gain is an illusion, as Horatio actually lost ground on the leader during this part of the race.
The winner of Race 7 was # 4 Stone Rocks (25.25), a horse that I had considered using as a "C' contender. Stone Rocks has posted a 58 Beyer Speed Figure two back in April, and his regression his last time out could be blamed on the sloppy track he ran over that day. Stone Rocks had twice previously taken the Show against higher class competition, so his win here should not have been a complete shocker.
I ultimately decided against using Stone Rocks on my tickets due to his poor Tomlinson Rating for the distance (172) and the equally poor trainer stats his conditioner showed (oh-for-thirteen overall for 2013; one-for-his last forty-two in dirt races). For those reasons I decided to instead put # 10 Ed's Magic (8.70) in one of the "C" slots. My decision was based primarily on the probability that Ed's Magic would improve on the 55 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in his debut, as horses generally show marked improvement in their second outing compared to their first; especially when, like Ed's Magic today, they trade an apprentice jockey for one of the journeymen, and go from an off-track to a fast surface. The reasoning was sound, but the reality didn't play out that way, as Ed's Magic pressed the leader for a half before tiring and fading to a sixth place finish.
We had labeled # 12 Notacatbutallama (4.90) an overlay in Race 8 at his morning line odds of 6-1; and while he did come down a bit in price, Notacatbutallama still went to post at a very generous odds. Notacatbutallama fought gamely in the stretch to win by a neck, our only "A" contender to make his way into the Winner's Circle today.
Taking credit where we can, we can be justifiably proud of our analysis of Race 9 in which we stated that using # 1A Situational Ethics (2.35*) in the top spot of tickets was poor investment strategy (sound advice to which we, unfortunately, did not adhere; as we did use Situational Ethics as one of our "C" contenders). Situational Ethics did not win today; in fact, he did not finish in the money, crossing the wire fourth. The victor in this one was # 8 Money in Motion (4.60), one of our "C" contenders, who finished a head in front of one of our three "A" contenders, # 5 North Star Boy (IRE) (10.60).
Finally we come to finale, Race 10, which saw a horse which we discussed but did not play, # 5 Song of Aspen (11.60) rally from off the pace to give Junior Alvarado his only winner on the day, while headlining a Trifecta that paid $629.00 for a buck. While it would have been intellectually satisfying to have included Song of Aspen on our tickets, especially since we did discuss his winning chances, practically, had we used him it would have been as a "C" contender, which would have just made our losses that much more.
So, could we have had the winning ticket for this Pick Four sequence? Well, if we were better handicappers, perhaps. But based upon the handicapping skills that we currently possess, in order to have the above four winners on one ticket, we would have had to use all the contenders we liked, including the two that we ultimately did not use at all (Stone Rocks and Song of Aspen) as "A" contenders; that is, just play it caveman style. It would have given us the following fifty cent ticket:
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2, 6, 7, 12
RACE 9: ALL (seven entries)
RACE 10: 4, 5, 8
TOTAL COST: $210
So it's theoretically possible that we could have had the winning sequence today; but practically speaking, we don't play two hundred dollar Pick Four tickets; primarily because we don't have the budget for it; but more importantly, because it doesn't strike us as a good long-term strategy to invest over $200 on a wager that typically pays less than that amount (provided, of course, that you actually have it; just because you play a large ticket does not guarantee that you will cash it at the end of the last race). So, for us, the goal is not to increase the budget with which we make these plays, but rather to fine tune our handicapping to the point that such sequences can be played while remaining within our budget.
Anyway, enough about us.
The Late Pick Four winning sequence was 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 ; not a single Post Time Favorite in the group. Those who were savvy enough to correctly play it for fifty cents were rewarded with a payout of $12,326.25. May God bless them as they spend it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday's Race 7 at Belmont Park saw our key horse and "A" contender # 6 Horatio (Final Odds 2.15*; note that the public agreed with our assessment that the Morning Line odds were way too generous) fight against the bit trying to get the early lead that he wanted and we were hoping for. But Jockey Junior Alvarado had other ideas and held him back, not letting him run until the drive; by which time it was too late, as Horatio had already used all his energy fighting his rider in the early going. Horatio would move up from fifth to take the Show, but the gain is an illusion, as Horatio actually lost ground on the leader during this part of the race.
The winner of Race 7 was # 4 Stone Rocks (25.25), a horse that I had considered using as a "C' contender. Stone Rocks has posted a 58 Beyer Speed Figure two back in April, and his regression his last time out could be blamed on the sloppy track he ran over that day. Stone Rocks had twice previously taken the Show against higher class competition, so his win here should not have been a complete shocker.
I ultimately decided against using Stone Rocks on my tickets due to his poor Tomlinson Rating for the distance (172) and the equally poor trainer stats his conditioner showed (oh-for-thirteen overall for 2013; one-for-his last forty-two in dirt races). For those reasons I decided to instead put # 10 Ed's Magic (8.70) in one of the "C" slots. My decision was based primarily on the probability that Ed's Magic would improve on the 55 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in his debut, as horses generally show marked improvement in their second outing compared to their first; especially when, like Ed's Magic today, they trade an apprentice jockey for one of the journeymen, and go from an off-track to a fast surface. The reasoning was sound, but the reality didn't play out that way, as Ed's Magic pressed the leader for a half before tiring and fading to a sixth place finish.
We had labeled # 12 Notacatbutallama (4.90) an overlay in Race 8 at his morning line odds of 6-1; and while he did come down a bit in price, Notacatbutallama still went to post at a very generous odds. Notacatbutallama fought gamely in the stretch to win by a neck, our only "A" contender to make his way into the Winner's Circle today.
Taking credit where we can, we can be justifiably proud of our analysis of Race 9 in which we stated that using # 1A Situational Ethics (2.35*) in the top spot of tickets was poor investment strategy (sound advice to which we, unfortunately, did not adhere; as we did use Situational Ethics as one of our "C" contenders). Situational Ethics did not win today; in fact, he did not finish in the money, crossing the wire fourth. The victor in this one was # 8 Money in Motion (4.60), one of our "C" contenders, who finished a head in front of one of our three "A" contenders, # 5 North Star Boy (IRE) (10.60).
Finally we come to finale, Race 10, which saw a horse which we discussed but did not play, # 5 Song of Aspen (11.60) rally from off the pace to give Junior Alvarado his only winner on the day, while headlining a Trifecta that paid $629.00 for a buck. While it would have been intellectually satisfying to have included Song of Aspen on our tickets, especially since we did discuss his winning chances, practically, had we used him it would have been as a "C" contender, which would have just made our losses that much more.
So, could we have had the winning ticket for this Pick Four sequence? Well, if we were better handicappers, perhaps. But based upon the handicapping skills that we currently possess, in order to have the above four winners on one ticket, we would have had to use all the contenders we liked, including the two that we ultimately did not use at all (Stone Rocks and Song of Aspen) as "A" contenders; that is, just play it caveman style. It would have given us the following fifty cent ticket:
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2, 6, 7, 12
RACE 9: ALL (seven entries)
RACE 10: 4, 5, 8
TOTAL COST: $210
So it's theoretically possible that we could have had the winning sequence today; but practically speaking, we don't play two hundred dollar Pick Four tickets; primarily because we don't have the budget for it; but more importantly, because it doesn't strike us as a good long-term strategy to invest over $200 on a wager that typically pays less than that amount (provided, of course, that you actually have it; just because you play a large ticket does not guarantee that you will cash it at the end of the last race). So, for us, the goal is not to increase the budget with which we make these plays, but rather to fine tune our handicapping to the point that such sequences can be played while remaining within our budget.
Anyway, enough about us.
The Late Pick Four winning sequence was 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 ; not a single Post Time Favorite in the group. Those who were savvy enough to correctly play it for fifty cents were rewarded with a payout of $12,326.25. May God bless them as they spend it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/15/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - The Play
OK, here's the way we're going to play the Late Pick Four today at Belmont Park:
Play this ticket for a dollar:
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 7: 3, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $18.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 6, 7
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $6.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 1, 3, 8, 10
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $44.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this ticket for a dollar:
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 7: 3, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $18.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 6, 7
RACE 9: 4, 5, 7
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $6.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 2, 12
RACE 9: 1, 3, 8, 10
RACE 10: 4, 8
COST: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $44.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/15/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview
It's looking like a beautiful Saturday in New York City; the first day without rain in quite a while. Following below are a few thoughts on today's Late Pick Four at Belmont Park:
RACE 7
This one is a contest for State-bred Maiden Claimers ($50k) to be run at a distance of six and a half furlongs over God-made dirt.
# 6 Horatio (Morning Line 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this level his last time out when he got caught in the stretch. Expect him to be on the lead early again today; quite possibly all alone. Horatio owns the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field. When you factor in that Steve Asmussen is his trainer and Junior Alvarado will be in the saddle, the Morning Line seems like a very generous overlay.
# 8 Joe Mooch (ML 7-2) was gaining on the leader on a sealed surface his last time out. Joe Mooch has posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his career races; all the more impressive when you consider that three of those four races have been over off tracks, which (based upon his breeding) is not his strong suit.
# 3 One Red Cat (ML 4-1) sure didn't like the muddy surface his last time out, and being bumped around at the break definitely didn’t help the cause. If One Red Cat can run back to his debut figure he’ll be right in the mix at the end, though his breeding suggests that he’s better suited to running longer.
# 4 Stone Rocks (ML 10-1) made a nice step forward two back at Aqueduct, only to regress his last time out at Belmont. Perhaps he didn’t like the slop; or maybe he just doesn’t like Belmont. Like One Red Cat, Stone Rocks’ breeding suggests that he is better suited to two turn races. I won’t be using him in my top slot, but Stone Rocks might get a minor share.
RACE 8 - The Hill Prince (Grade 3)
# 2 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) flopped big time his last time out, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on a sloppy Belmont Park main track. Infinite Magic goes back to grass today, having won quite impressively two back in what was his turf and North America debut. He’ll be starting today for his fourth different conditioner in his last four races; but if Infinite Magic can repeat that effort from two back, he’ll certainly be in the mix at the wire.
# 7 Michael With Us (ML 8-1) did quite well for himself in his turf debut at Monmouth his last time out. His Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races suggests that this three year old has done some maturing during the early Spring months; if so, he should be able to handle this step up in class.
# 6 Joha (ML 8-1) is a Grade 1 winner making his first start of 2013. This race is obviously a prep for Joha, as his connections didn’t bring him back after a seven month layoff in order to win a Grade 3 grass event; but Joha’s back class is strong enough that he must be given consideration, even if he doesn’t fire his best shot.
# 12 Notacatbutallama (ML 6-1) has a pair of listed stakes wins in his form, and has been in the Trifecta in all but two of his nine career starts. The Beyers Notacatbutallama posted in those stakes wins last Fall are certainly competitive in this field; and when you factor in the natural improvement you would expect from a horse from two years old to three, Notacatbutallama is definitely a contender in today’s event. Factor in the Trainer/Jockey tandem of Todd Pletcher and Johnny V, and Notacatbutallama strikes me as a significant overlay if he goes to post at his Morning Line odds.
RACE 9
# 1A Situational Ethics (Morning Line 4-1) has proven himself to be competitive at this level, and his form includes Beyer Speed Figures on the turf that would get the job done today. But a career record of one win in seventeen tries suggests that putting him in the top slot on tickets is not a good investment.
# 6 Yo Blue (ML 8-1) seems to have figured it out, having won three in a row after starting his career oh-for-six. His Beyers are a little light, and there seems to be enough early speed in this one to challenge him on the front end; but Yo Blue has got more wins in his last three races than most of this field have in their career, which means he must be given consideration.
# 9 Power Blast (ML 3-1) owns the best last out Beyer in this bunch. This is a step up the class ladder for Power Blast, but his record on the Belmont grass is solid. Power Blast’s late running style should suit him well in this one; and, unlike many in this field, Power Blast knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle.
EDIT - Since I wrote the above, both # 6 Yo Blue and # 9 Power Blast have been scratched from Race 9. Which, needless to say, changes things. I may have to view this as a chaos race.
RACE 10
# 8 Shock Me Kaz (Morning Line 3-1) should be the quickest of a rather lethargic bunch. Toss out the off-track effort his last time out and his Beyer Speed Figures make him a legitimate contender. Trainer Peter Kazamias is solid in the stat area, and this is the lowest class level Shock Me Kaz has ever competed against.
# 4 Without Regard (ML 2-1) drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. If he can return to the Beyers that he posted in 2012, he should win handily against this field.
# 5 Song of Aspen (ML 10-1) is, like Without Regard, up for sale for the first time in his career. This barn doesn’t win much, but they appear to have acquired the services of top jock Junior Alvarado for this contest. If Alvarado should actually mount Song of Aspen, it’s possible that his presence combined with the class relief may provide the spark that this colt needs.
As stated earlier, the elimination of Yo Blue and Power Blast from the Race 9 field changes the entire complexion of that event. I may still have a play for this sequence; if so, I'll have it posted here prior to the Race 7 Post Time of 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. If it turns out that I can't cobble together a reasonable Pick Four Ticket, I'll be sure to post that information here as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7
This one is a contest for State-bred Maiden Claimers ($50k) to be run at a distance of six and a half furlongs over God-made dirt.
# 6 Horatio (Morning Line 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this level his last time out when he got caught in the stretch. Expect him to be on the lead early again today; quite possibly all alone. Horatio owns the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field. When you factor in that Steve Asmussen is his trainer and Junior Alvarado will be in the saddle, the Morning Line seems like a very generous overlay.
# 8 Joe Mooch (ML 7-2) was gaining on the leader on a sealed surface his last time out. Joe Mooch has posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his career races; all the more impressive when you consider that three of those four races have been over off tracks, which (based upon his breeding) is not his strong suit.
# 3 One Red Cat (ML 4-1) sure didn't like the muddy surface his last time out, and being bumped around at the break definitely didn’t help the cause. If One Red Cat can run back to his debut figure he’ll be right in the mix at the end, though his breeding suggests that he’s better suited to running longer.
# 4 Stone Rocks (ML 10-1) made a nice step forward two back at Aqueduct, only to regress his last time out at Belmont. Perhaps he didn’t like the slop; or maybe he just doesn’t like Belmont. Like One Red Cat, Stone Rocks’ breeding suggests that he is better suited to two turn races. I won’t be using him in my top slot, but Stone Rocks might get a minor share.
RACE 8 - The Hill Prince (Grade 3)
# 2 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) flopped big time his last time out, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on a sloppy Belmont Park main track. Infinite Magic goes back to grass today, having won quite impressively two back in what was his turf and North America debut. He’ll be starting today for his fourth different conditioner in his last four races; but if Infinite Magic can repeat that effort from two back, he’ll certainly be in the mix at the wire.
# 7 Michael With Us (ML 8-1) did quite well for himself in his turf debut at Monmouth his last time out. His Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races suggests that this three year old has done some maturing during the early Spring months; if so, he should be able to handle this step up in class.
# 6 Joha (ML 8-1) is a Grade 1 winner making his first start of 2013. This race is obviously a prep for Joha, as his connections didn’t bring him back after a seven month layoff in order to win a Grade 3 grass event; but Joha’s back class is strong enough that he must be given consideration, even if he doesn’t fire his best shot.
# 12 Notacatbutallama (ML 6-1) has a pair of listed stakes wins in his form, and has been in the Trifecta in all but two of his nine career starts. The Beyers Notacatbutallama posted in those stakes wins last Fall are certainly competitive in this field; and when you factor in the natural improvement you would expect from a horse from two years old to three, Notacatbutallama is definitely a contender in today’s event. Factor in the Trainer/Jockey tandem of Todd Pletcher and Johnny V, and Notacatbutallama strikes me as a significant overlay if he goes to post at his Morning Line odds.
RACE 9
# 1A Situational Ethics (Morning Line 4-1) has proven himself to be competitive at this level, and his form includes Beyer Speed Figures on the turf that would get the job done today. But a career record of one win in seventeen tries suggests that putting him in the top slot on tickets is not a good investment.
# 6 Yo Blue (ML 8-1) seems to have figured it out, having won three in a row after starting his career oh-for-six. His Beyers are a little light, and there seems to be enough early speed in this one to challenge him on the front end; but Yo Blue has got more wins in his last three races than most of this field have in their career, which means he must be given consideration.
# 9 Power Blast (ML 3-1) owns the best last out Beyer in this bunch. This is a step up the class ladder for Power Blast, but his record on the Belmont grass is solid. Power Blast’s late running style should suit him well in this one; and, unlike many in this field, Power Blast knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle.
EDIT - Since I wrote the above, both # 6 Yo Blue and # 9 Power Blast have been scratched from Race 9. Which, needless to say, changes things. I may have to view this as a chaos race.
RACE 10
# 8 Shock Me Kaz (Morning Line 3-1) should be the quickest of a rather lethargic bunch. Toss out the off-track effort his last time out and his Beyer Speed Figures make him a legitimate contender. Trainer Peter Kazamias is solid in the stat area, and this is the lowest class level Shock Me Kaz has ever competed against.
# 4 Without Regard (ML 2-1) drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. If he can return to the Beyers that he posted in 2012, he should win handily against this field.
# 5 Song of Aspen (ML 10-1) is, like Without Regard, up for sale for the first time in his career. This barn doesn’t win much, but they appear to have acquired the services of top jock Junior Alvarado for this contest. If Alvarado should actually mount Song of Aspen, it’s possible that his presence combined with the class relief may provide the spark that this colt needs.
As stated earlier, the elimination of Yo Blue and Power Blast from the Race 9 field changes the entire complexion of that event. I may still have a play for this sequence; if so, I'll have it posted here prior to the Race 7 Post Time of 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. If it turns out that I can't cobble together a reasonable Pick Four Ticket, I'll be sure to post that information here as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/15/13 LA R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Quoting myself from back in February:
"As so often happens to favorites in the final race of the day on cards throughout the country, Compromising Txt was over-bet, leaving the gate at even money (Final Odds 1.0-1). Compromising Txt grabbed the early lead, but decided to call it a day before entering the stretch, finishing dead last, over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Tonzatrouble (12.4-1). For his effort, Compromising Txt was rewarded with new connections, as he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Daniel W Taylor. Don't be surprised if Compromising Txt's next outing is in a four-and-a-half furlong event at Los Alamitos."
Compromising Txt is scheduled to make his first start since that February event tonight, as he is entered in Race 7 at Los Alamitos, at a distance of four-and-a-half furlongs. The Morning Line Odds for Compromising Txt are 5-1.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"As so often happens to favorites in the final race of the day on cards throughout the country, Compromising Txt was over-bet, leaving the gate at even money (Final Odds 1.0-1). Compromising Txt grabbed the early lead, but decided to call it a day before entering the stretch, finishing dead last, over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Tonzatrouble (12.4-1). For his effort, Compromising Txt was rewarded with new connections, as he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Daniel W Taylor. Don't be surprised if Compromising Txt's next outing is in a four-and-a-half furlong event at Los Alamitos."
Compromising Txt is scheduled to make his first start since that February event tonight, as he is entered in Race 7 at Los Alamitos, at a distance of four-and-a-half furlongs. The Morning Line Odds for Compromising Txt are 5-1.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, June 9, 2013
June 9, 1973 - Secretariat Wins The Belmont Stakes
Didn't want to let the fortieth anniversary of this remarkable event pass without comment.
Listening to Chick Anderson’s call for me is a lot like watching Casablanca; the quotes are just so well known, and they stay with you forever:
"They’re on the turn, and Secretariat is blazing along! The first three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and four fifths. Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn! Sham is dropping back. It looks like they’ll catch him today, as My Gallant and Twice a Prince are both coming up to him now. But Secretariat is all alone! He’s out there almost a sixteenth of a mile away from the rest of the horses! Secretariat is in a position that seems impossible to catch. He’s into the stretch. Secretariat leads this field by 18 lengths, and now Twice a Prince has taken second and My Gallant has moved back to third. They’re in the stretch. Secretariat has opened a 22 length lead! He is going to be the Triple Crown winner! Here comes Secretariat to the wire. An unbelievable, an amazing performance! He hits the finish 25 lengths in front! It’s going to be Twice a Prince second, My Gallant third, Private Smiles fourth, and Sham, who had it today, dropped back to fifth."
Quoting from the official DRF chart of the 1973 Belmont:
“SECRETARIAT, sent up along the inside to vie for the early lead with SHAM to the backstretch, disposed of that one after three-quarters, drew off at will rounding the far turn and was under a hand ride from Turcotte to establish a record in a tremendous performance.”
Possibly the most difficult thing to teach a race horse is to go against its natural herd instinct. In the wild, leaving the herd is courting danger; safety is with the pack. Run too far away from the herd and you could be running right into the mouth of a predator.
So you try to teach the horse that it’s okay to run away from the pack when its on the race track; that there are no predators lying in wait for them down the home stretch. You also have to teach them that they’re not just out for an afternoon jog with their friends; that the other horses are competitors, and they need to leave those competitors as far behind as they can after passing them, and not slow down to give them a chance to catch up.
Most horses never really learn those things. It’s just too contrary to their survival instincts. Running far away from the herd goes totally against untold centuries of breeding in the wild.
Secretariat didn’t just beat a race that day. He beat Nature.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Listening to Chick Anderson’s call for me is a lot like watching Casablanca; the quotes are just so well known, and they stay with you forever:
"They’re on the turn, and Secretariat is blazing along! The first three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and four fifths. Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn! Sham is dropping back. It looks like they’ll catch him today, as My Gallant and Twice a Prince are both coming up to him now. But Secretariat is all alone! He’s out there almost a sixteenth of a mile away from the rest of the horses! Secretariat is in a position that seems impossible to catch. He’s into the stretch. Secretariat leads this field by 18 lengths, and now Twice a Prince has taken second and My Gallant has moved back to third. They’re in the stretch. Secretariat has opened a 22 length lead! He is going to be the Triple Crown winner! Here comes Secretariat to the wire. An unbelievable, an amazing performance! He hits the finish 25 lengths in front! It’s going to be Twice a Prince second, My Gallant third, Private Smiles fourth, and Sham, who had it today, dropped back to fifth."
Quoting from the official DRF chart of the 1973 Belmont:
“SECRETARIAT, sent up along the inside to vie for the early lead with SHAM to the backstretch, disposed of that one after three-quarters, drew off at will rounding the far turn and was under a hand ride from Turcotte to establish a record in a tremendous performance.”
Possibly the most difficult thing to teach a race horse is to go against its natural herd instinct. In the wild, leaving the herd is courting danger; safety is with the pack. Run too far away from the herd and you could be running right into the mouth of a predator.
So you try to teach the horse that it’s okay to run away from the pack when its on the race track; that there are no predators lying in wait for them down the home stretch. You also have to teach them that they’re not just out for an afternoon jog with their friends; that the other horses are competitors, and they need to leave those competitors as far behind as they can after passing them, and not slow down to give them a chance to catch up.
Most horses never really learn those things. It’s just too contrary to their survival instincts. Running far away from the herd goes totally against untold centuries of breeding in the wild.
Secretariat didn’t just beat a race that day. He beat Nature.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/13 BHP R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Paralyzing Eyes, the four year old filly that we've been following, made her eighth career start Saturday, in Race 2 at Hollywood Park, a $20k Maiden Claimer. The distance was seven furlongs, a first for Paralyzing Eyes; however, it had no effect on the result, as once again Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 85.50) finished out of the money.
So this was Paralyzing Eyes fourth race in which she was in for a tag of $20k. We'll continue to follow to see if she drops down further in class, or simply calls it a career.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So this was Paralyzing Eyes fourth race in which she was in for a tag of $20k. We'll continue to follow to see if she drops down further in class, or simply calls it a career.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results
Some days you're the windshield, and some days you're the bug. Saturday was definitely our day to be the bug.
Race 8 - The Just a Game saw most of our tickets die a quick death as our two A's, # 3 Centre Court (Final Odds 2.60*) and # 6 Mizdirection (3.00) finished fourth and fifth, respectively. But we still clung to life, as one of our C's, # 2 Stephanie Kitten (3.00), with John Velazquez on board, crossed the wire a half length ahead of # 7 Better Lucky (11.10). On a day without many bright spots, we can at least be pleased that the one entrant in the Just a Game that we left totally uncovered, # 5 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (6.80), finished dead last.
Race 9 - The Woody Stephens brought down our last remaining ticket, as # 7 Forty Tales (8.90), ridden by Joel Rosario, finished a half length in front of our two A's, # 1 Declan's Warrior (4.80) and # 9 Clearly Now (4.80). That result made moot the result of Race 10 - The Manhattan Handicap, won by # 1 Point of Entry (0.55*) by a length and a half over # 5 Optimizer (5.80), giving Johnny V his second win of the sequence. A bright spot for us is that, as in Race 8, the top five finishes in the Woody Stephens were the five horses that we had covered (in one form or another). However, in retrospect, there proved to be no justification for covering any horse other than Point of Entry in the Manhattan Handicap; our decision to do otherwise costing us an additional twelve dollars that would have been better saved for another day.
Finally (mercifully) we come to the final leg of the sequence, Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes, won by # 12 Palace Malice (13.80) and Jockey Mike Smith, with two of our A's, # 7 Oxbow (10.10) and # 5 Orb (2.20*) taking the Place and Show, respectively.
Which, in retrospect, was just as well; because if you're going to lose, you might as well lose without doubt. While I can go back to the previous three legs of this sequence and see things that I should have done better, there is no way that I can honestly tell you that, given a clearer thought process, I would have had Palace Malice on any of my tickets. If I were to have expanded my selections in the Belmont, I would have added # 2 Freedom Child, # 3 Overanalyze, and # 10 Will Take Charge to my tickets before I would have gotten around to adding Palace Malice to my play.
While you can excuse Palace Malice's performance in the Kentucky Derby due to the addition of blinkers in that race, how do you excuse his failure to hold on to win the Blue Grass in his race before that one? Or his defeat in the Louisiana Derby by Revolutionary by over seven lengths? Or that fact that, prior to Saturday, Palace Malice's only career win was when he broke his maiden back in August of last year? My hat's off to those who were wise enough to forecast Palace Malice winning the Belmont Stakes; but if I were to tell you that selecting Palace Malice to win Saturday was a play I could envision myself making, I would be lying through my teeth.
So splat went all our Pick Four tickets against the windshield, as we could only manage one winning A selection in the sequence. Meanwhile, those who correctly played the winning combination of 2 / 7 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $447.00 for every fifty cents wagered. May The Almighty bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Just a Game saw most of our tickets die a quick death as our two A's, # 3 Centre Court (Final Odds 2.60*) and # 6 Mizdirection (3.00) finished fourth and fifth, respectively. But we still clung to life, as one of our C's, # 2 Stephanie Kitten (3.00), with John Velazquez on board, crossed the wire a half length ahead of # 7 Better Lucky (11.10). On a day without many bright spots, we can at least be pleased that the one entrant in the Just a Game that we left totally uncovered, # 5 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (6.80), finished dead last.
Race 9 - The Woody Stephens brought down our last remaining ticket, as # 7 Forty Tales (8.90), ridden by Joel Rosario, finished a half length in front of our two A's, # 1 Declan's Warrior (4.80) and # 9 Clearly Now (4.80). That result made moot the result of Race 10 - The Manhattan Handicap, won by # 1 Point of Entry (0.55*) by a length and a half over # 5 Optimizer (5.80), giving Johnny V his second win of the sequence. A bright spot for us is that, as in Race 8, the top five finishes in the Woody Stephens were the five horses that we had covered (in one form or another). However, in retrospect, there proved to be no justification for covering any horse other than Point of Entry in the Manhattan Handicap; our decision to do otherwise costing us an additional twelve dollars that would have been better saved for another day.
Finally (mercifully) we come to the final leg of the sequence, Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes, won by # 12 Palace Malice (13.80) and Jockey Mike Smith, with two of our A's, # 7 Oxbow (10.10) and # 5 Orb (2.20*) taking the Place and Show, respectively.
Which, in retrospect, was just as well; because if you're going to lose, you might as well lose without doubt. While I can go back to the previous three legs of this sequence and see things that I should have done better, there is no way that I can honestly tell you that, given a clearer thought process, I would have had Palace Malice on any of my tickets. If I were to have expanded my selections in the Belmont, I would have added # 2 Freedom Child, # 3 Overanalyze, and # 10 Will Take Charge to my tickets before I would have gotten around to adding Palace Malice to my play.
While you can excuse Palace Malice's performance in the Kentucky Derby due to the addition of blinkers in that race, how do you excuse his failure to hold on to win the Blue Grass in his race before that one? Or his defeat in the Louisiana Derby by Revolutionary by over seven lengths? Or that fact that, prior to Saturday, Palace Malice's only career win was when he broke his maiden back in August of last year? My hat's off to those who were wise enough to forecast Palace Malice winning the Belmont Stakes; but if I were to tell you that selecting Palace Malice to win Saturday was a play I could envision myself making, I would be lying through my teeth.
So splat went all our Pick Four tickets against the windshield, as we could only manage one winning A selection in the sequence. Meanwhile, those who correctly played the winning combination of 2 / 7 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $447.00 for every fifty cents wagered. May The Almighty bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 8, 2013
6/8/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Belmont Stakes day in New York City; and while there will be no Triple Crown winner this year, it should still be an exciting event, with the Kentucky Derby Winner and the Preakness Stakes Winner squaring off as part of a field of fourteen. There's a full menu of wagering options being offered; I'll focus here on the middle Pick Four, comprised of all Graded Stakes. As time is short, I'll be brief.
RACE 8 - THE JUST A GAME
# 3 Centre Court (Morning Line 3-1) has been in the Exacta in each of her last ten starts; the last seven being Graded Stakes; the last three being victories.
# 6 Mizdirection (ML 7-2) has shown the ability in her career to win on the front end and to win by closing late. She'll be ridden today by Mike Smith; note that in her most recent ten races, her best Beyer Speed Figures are in the four races where Smith was on board.
# 1 Hungry Island (ML 4-1) has three career victories on the Belmont grass, and her Speed Figure pattern shows a nice, steady increase.
# 2 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2) loses the services of Julien Leparoux (who rode her to victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile her last time out) to Centre Court, but gets in return John Velazquez, who was on her back for all her prior stakes wins.
# 7 Better Lucky (ML 12-1) is no stranger to cashing in at big prices, as only one of her career wins has come at Final Odds of less than 6-1. Joel Rosario will be on board for the first time; if he can get Better Lucky to run as she did in winning the Grade 1 Matriarch, she could light up the tote board.
RACE 9 - THE WOODY STEPHENS
# 1 Declan's Warrior (ML 8-1) is just a neck away from being a perfect five-for-five for his career. He has two wins over the Belmont main track, and his come from behind style could work well against this bunch.
# 6 Zee Bros (ML 4-1) is the Bob Baffert entry in this contest. In his four race career Zee Bros has twice shown the ability to post triple digit Beyers, and twice shown the ability to tire in the drive. Toss a coin as to which one it will be today.
# 7 Forty Tales (ML 5-1) closed fast to win the Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs back in April. He's won at six furlongs and he's won at eight furlongs; but he's winless in two attempts at today's distance of seven furlongs. Still, his late running style makes him a contender in this field filled with early speed.
# 9 Clearly Now (ML 8-1) came from sixth place to win the Grade 3 Swale, and just missed beating Declan's Warrior to the wire in the Grade 3 Bay Shore.
# 11 Let Em Shine (ML 3-1) dominated his last time out over the artificial surface of Hollywood Park, posting a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Even if you toss that race, the 98 Beyer Let Em Shine posted in winning an Optional Claimer in his race before that on the Santa Anita dirt makes him a contender in this field. Edwin Maldonado makes the trip in from the West Coast to ride Let Em Shine today (as I type this, Let Em Shine is Maldonado's only mount on the card).
RACE 10 - THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP
#10 Point of Entry (ML 3-5) is the clear standout in this field; even if you’re looking at Past Performances for the first time in your life you can figure that out. But will he run? Point of Entry was scratched out of the Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill at the last minute (after the Pick Four had begun) because of track conditions. Will his connections do that again today?
# 4 Optimizer (ML 6-1) was second to Wise Dan in the aforementioned Turf Classic, and was less than a length behind Skyring at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie his last time out. Optimizer's Beyers have been consistent; a good sign that he's always going to fire.
# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1) has a pair of Grade 2 victories in his last three races, making him the only horse in this field besides Point of Entry to have earned a Grade 2 win.
RACE 11 - THE BELMONT STAKES
Not much to say here. You have your Derby winner # 5 Orb (ML 3-1) along with your Preakness winner # 7 Oxbow (ML 5-1); both are well matched, though neither should be getting the dream trips that they received in each of their respective victories. # 14 Golden Soul (ML 10-1) and # 9 Revolutionary (ML 9-2) were Place and Show (respectively) in the Kentucky Derby; if I had to single in this race, it would probably be Revolutionary, as his Beyer pattern makes him the most likely entrant to take another step forward. The filly, # 13 Unlimited Budget (ML 8-1) is bigger than many of the boys in this field; if she can last, she can win. # 6 Incognito (ML 20-1) in my wild card pick; Incognito's pedigree for the distance makes him a roll of the dice worth taking.
Running out of time; here goes:
One Dollar Tickets:
RACE 8: 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 9
COST: $1.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 7
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 6, 7, 11
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 6, 13, 14
COST: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - THE JUST A GAME
# 3 Centre Court (Morning Line 3-1) has been in the Exacta in each of her last ten starts; the last seven being Graded Stakes; the last three being victories.
# 6 Mizdirection (ML 7-2) has shown the ability in her career to win on the front end and to win by closing late. She'll be ridden today by Mike Smith; note that in her most recent ten races, her best Beyer Speed Figures are in the four races where Smith was on board.
# 1 Hungry Island (ML 4-1) has three career victories on the Belmont grass, and her Speed Figure pattern shows a nice, steady increase.
# 2 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2) loses the services of Julien Leparoux (who rode her to victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile her last time out) to Centre Court, but gets in return John Velazquez, who was on her back for all her prior stakes wins.
# 7 Better Lucky (ML 12-1) is no stranger to cashing in at big prices, as only one of her career wins has come at Final Odds of less than 6-1. Joel Rosario will be on board for the first time; if he can get Better Lucky to run as she did in winning the Grade 1 Matriarch, she could light up the tote board.
RACE 9 - THE WOODY STEPHENS
# 1 Declan's Warrior (ML 8-1) is just a neck away from being a perfect five-for-five for his career. He has two wins over the Belmont main track, and his come from behind style could work well against this bunch.
# 6 Zee Bros (ML 4-1) is the Bob Baffert entry in this contest. In his four race career Zee Bros has twice shown the ability to post triple digit Beyers, and twice shown the ability to tire in the drive. Toss a coin as to which one it will be today.
# 7 Forty Tales (ML 5-1) closed fast to win the Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs back in April. He's won at six furlongs and he's won at eight furlongs; but he's winless in two attempts at today's distance of seven furlongs. Still, his late running style makes him a contender in this field filled with early speed.
# 9 Clearly Now (ML 8-1) came from sixth place to win the Grade 3 Swale, and just missed beating Declan's Warrior to the wire in the Grade 3 Bay Shore.
# 11 Let Em Shine (ML 3-1) dominated his last time out over the artificial surface of Hollywood Park, posting a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Even if you toss that race, the 98 Beyer Let Em Shine posted in winning an Optional Claimer in his race before that on the Santa Anita dirt makes him a contender in this field. Edwin Maldonado makes the trip in from the West Coast to ride Let Em Shine today (as I type this, Let Em Shine is Maldonado's only mount on the card).
RACE 10 - THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP
#10 Point of Entry (ML 3-5) is the clear standout in this field; even if you’re looking at Past Performances for the first time in your life you can figure that out. But will he run? Point of Entry was scratched out of the Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill at the last minute (after the Pick Four had begun) because of track conditions. Will his connections do that again today?
# 4 Optimizer (ML 6-1) was second to Wise Dan in the aforementioned Turf Classic, and was less than a length behind Skyring at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie his last time out. Optimizer's Beyers have been consistent; a good sign that he's always going to fire.
# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1) has a pair of Grade 2 victories in his last three races, making him the only horse in this field besides Point of Entry to have earned a Grade 2 win.
RACE 11 - THE BELMONT STAKES
Not much to say here. You have your Derby winner # 5 Orb (ML 3-1) along with your Preakness winner # 7 Oxbow (ML 5-1); both are well matched, though neither should be getting the dream trips that they received in each of their respective victories. # 14 Golden Soul (ML 10-1) and # 9 Revolutionary (ML 9-2) were Place and Show (respectively) in the Kentucky Derby; if I had to single in this race, it would probably be Revolutionary, as his Beyer pattern makes him the most likely entrant to take another step forward. The filly, # 13 Unlimited Budget (ML 8-1) is bigger than many of the boys in this field; if she can last, she can win. # 6 Incognito (ML 20-1) in my wild card pick; Incognito's pedigree for the distance makes him a roll of the dice worth taking.
Running out of time; here goes:
One Dollar Tickets:
RACE 8: 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 9
COST: $1.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 7
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 6, 7, 11
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 6, 13, 14
COST: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, June 7, 2013
Chantal Sutherland Un-Retires
Since I noted here last October when Chantal Sutherland announced that she was retiring, I thought it only proper that I now note that Ms Sutherland returned to riding Friday. Sutherland was aboard Solidus (Final Odds 5.40) in Race 4 at Woodbine, riding the four year old gelding to a fifth place finish.
As to why she returned, Sutherland is quoted in the above linked article as saying, "I just started dreaming about it again. All of a sudden I started waking up at 4 a.m. I missed it too much; I love all the people at the racetrack."
I'm sure that you'll all join me in wishing Ms Sutherland the best of luck as she resumes her career in the saddle.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
As to why she returned, Sutherland is quoted in the above linked article as saying, "I just started dreaming about it again. All of a sudden I started waking up at 4 a.m. I missed it too much; I love all the people at the racetrack."
I'm sure that you'll all join me in wishing Ms Sutherland the best of luck as she resumes her career in the saddle.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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