6/22/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Saturday, Mother Goose Day at Belmont Park in New York.  The track is Fast and the turf is Firm, and while the forecast calls for a lot of clouds, there shouldn't be any rain on today's parades.  So with all that, let's take a look at the Late Pick Four:

RACE 8

# 4 Night Maneuver (Morning Line 10-1) is the horse in this field that interests me most.  If you toss out Night Maneuver's last (when he tried to go seven furlongs, only to tire in the drive) and look at the half dozen prior (all at today's distance of six furlongs) you'll see a streak of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures (71 / 73 / 80 / 84 / 87 / 95); note that the last is greater than the Beyer Par for this class level.  Factor in that Night Maneuver has crossed the wire first two of the three times that he's competed over the main Belmont track, and his Morning Line odds look extremely generous.  I expect to go six deep in this leg for my Pick Four play; but if I were to recommend a strong value play in this sequence, I would advise playing Night Maneuver to Win at any odds above 9-2.

RACE 9

# 3 With Exultation (ML 5-2) missed by just a length his last time out, which was his first try against winners.  With Exultation was sired by Kitten's Joy, and those cats tend to be tough on the grass.

# 4 In My Eyes (ML 12-1) makes his third start of the form cycle, and picks up Rosario for the ride.  Expect In My Eyes to get first run at the early leaders as they come out of the final turn.

# 5 Noosh's Tale (ML 4-1) just missed at this level his last time out, finishing a neck behind Royal Blessing (who came back to win Race 8 here Friday).

# 8 Toy Cannon (ML 7-2) was fourth (two lengths back) to Noosh's Tale his last time out, in the aforementioned contest with Royal Blessing.  Two back it was Toy Cannon's turn to take the Place while Noosh's Tale finished fourth.  Toy Cannon's Beyers in his last four outings have been in the mid-to-upper seventies, making him competitive with the best of this bunch.

# 10 River Time (ML 8-1) goes for the first time for Trainer Steve Asmussen; this will also be River Time's first race with John Velazquez on his back.  River Time has finished in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Belmont grass.

RACE 10 - The Mother Goose (Grade 1)

# 2 Dreaming of Julia (ML 1-2) looks like an absolute standout.  She’s the only one in the field of five with a Grade 1 victory, and one of only two in the group with a Grade 2 win (# 3 Close Hatches (ML 7-2), winner of the Gazelle in April, is the other) .  Dreaming of Julia has earned Beyer Speed Figures in her last three races of 93 / 114 / 93; of the other four horses in the field, only Marathon Lady (ML 5-1) has ever earned a Beyer above 90, having picked up a 92 her last time out while taking the Place in the Black Eyed Susan. 

I’ll be using Dreaming of Julia as a free spot in my Pick Four plays; but I may throw a buck or two on # 5 Sister Slate (ML 20-1) to Win.  Toss out her last (when she was competing against older) and Sister Slate shows a sequence of steadily increasing Beyers to go along with the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for the distance.  Getting Lasix for the first time may just give Sister Slate the boost she needs to get herself into the mix if Dreaming of Julia fails to fire.

RACE 11

# 8 Face the Race (ML 3-1) needed more distance his last time out, when he disappointed as the odds-on favorite at seven furlongs.  He'll get that added real estate today; and if he can cover it as he did when competing at this level two back at Gulfstream Park, look for Face the Race to be in the mix at the wire.

# 9 Mike and Rob (ML 7-2) has proven his ability to compete at this level, and owns the best last out Beyer in the field.  If Mike and Rob finally figures out that the goal is to be ahead of the pack, rather than with the pack, he could romp against this bunch.

# 12 Post Pattern (5-1) certainly has the breeding (as measured by his Tomlinson Ratings for both Turf and Turf Dst) to win at this level; but he's disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six races.  This will be Post Pattern's first time competing with Lasix; perhaps that will make the difference today.

I'm going to take advantage of the opportunity that comes with singling a horse of the quality of Dreaming of Julia, and just go caveman style and make all contenders A's.  It'll make the ticket more expensive than I prefer; but if Dreaming of Julia gives it her best today, then I really like our chances of cashing when the day is done.

So with that, our fifty cent ticket is as follows:

RACE 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9

RACE 9: 3, 4, 5, 8, 10

RACE 10: 2

RACE 11: 8, 9, 12

TOTAL COST: $45.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:45 EDT / 1:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo