It's looking like a beautiful Saturday in New York City; the first day without rain in quite a while. Following below are a few thoughts on today's Late Pick Four at Belmont Park:
RACE 7
This one is a contest for State-bred Maiden Claimers ($50k) to be run at a distance of six and a half furlongs over God-made dirt.
# 6 Horatio (Morning Line 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this level his last time out when he got caught in the stretch. Expect him to be on the lead early again today; quite possibly all alone. Horatio owns the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field. When you factor in that Steve Asmussen is his trainer and Junior Alvarado will be in the saddle, the Morning Line seems like a very generous overlay.
# 8 Joe Mooch (ML 7-2) was gaining on the leader on a sealed surface his last time out. Joe Mooch has posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his career races; all the more impressive when you consider that three of those four races have been over off tracks, which (based upon his breeding) is not his strong suit.
# 3 One Red Cat (ML 4-1) sure didn't like the muddy surface his last time out, and being bumped around at the break definitely didn’t help the cause. If One Red Cat can run back to his debut figure he’ll be right in the mix at the end, though his breeding suggests that he’s better suited to running longer.
# 4 Stone Rocks (ML 10-1) made a nice step forward two back at Aqueduct, only to regress his last time out at Belmont. Perhaps he didn’t like the slop; or maybe he just doesn’t like Belmont. Like One Red Cat, Stone Rocks’ breeding suggests that he is better suited to two turn races. I won’t be using him in my top slot, but Stone Rocks might get a minor share.
RACE 8 - The Hill Prince (Grade 3)
# 2 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) flopped big time his last time out, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on a sloppy Belmont Park main track. Infinite Magic goes back to grass today, having won quite impressively two back in what was his turf and North America debut. He’ll be starting today for his fourth different conditioner in his last four races; but if Infinite Magic can repeat that effort from two back, he’ll certainly be in the mix at the wire.
# 7 Michael With Us (ML 8-1) did quite well for himself in his turf debut at Monmouth his last time out. His Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races suggests that this three year old has done some maturing during the early Spring months; if so, he should be able to handle this step up in class.
# 6 Joha (ML 8-1) is a Grade 1 winner making his first start of 2013. This race is obviously a prep for Joha, as his connections didn’t bring him back after a seven month layoff in order to win a Grade 3 grass event; but Joha’s back class is strong enough that he must be given consideration, even if he doesn’t fire his best shot.
# 12 Notacatbutallama (ML 6-1) has a pair of listed stakes wins in his form, and has been in the Trifecta in all but two of his nine career starts. The Beyers Notacatbutallama posted in those stakes wins last Fall are certainly competitive in this field; and when you factor in the natural improvement you would expect from a horse from two years old to three, Notacatbutallama is definitely a contender in today’s event. Factor in the Trainer/Jockey tandem of Todd Pletcher and Johnny V, and Notacatbutallama strikes me as a significant overlay if he goes to post at his Morning Line odds.
RACE 9
# 1A Situational Ethics (Morning Line 4-1) has proven himself to be competitive at this level, and his form includes Beyer Speed Figures on the turf that would get the job done today. But a career record of one win in seventeen tries suggests that putting him in the top slot on tickets is not a good investment.
# 6 Yo Blue (ML 8-1) seems to have figured it out, having won three in a row after starting his career oh-for-six. His Beyers are a little light, and there seems to be enough early speed in this one to challenge him on the front end; but Yo Blue has got more wins in his last three races than most of this field have in their career, which means he must be given consideration.
# 9 Power Blast (ML 3-1) owns the best last out Beyer in this bunch. This is a step up the class ladder for Power Blast, but his record on the Belmont grass is solid. Power Blast’s late running style should suit him well in this one; and, unlike many in this field, Power Blast knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle.
EDIT - Since I wrote the above, both # 6 Yo Blue and # 9 Power Blast have been scratched from Race 9. Which, needless to say, changes things. I may have to view this as a chaos race.
RACE 10
# 8 Shock Me Kaz (Morning Line 3-1) should be the quickest of a rather lethargic bunch. Toss out the off-track effort his last time out and his Beyer Speed Figures make him a legitimate contender. Trainer Peter Kazamias is solid in the stat area, and this is the lowest class level Shock Me Kaz has ever competed against.
# 4 Without Regard (ML 2-1) drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. If he can return to the Beyers that he posted in 2012, he should win handily against this field.
# 5 Song of Aspen (ML 10-1) is, like Without Regard, up for sale for the first time in his career. This barn doesn’t win much, but they appear to have acquired the services of top jock Junior Alvarado for this contest. If Alvarado should actually mount Song of Aspen, it’s possible that his presence combined with the class relief may provide the spark that this colt needs.
As stated earlier, the elimination of Yo Blue and Power Blast from the Race 9 field changes the entire complexion of that event. I may still have a play for this sequence; if so, I'll have it posted here prior to the Race 7 Post Time of 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. If it turns out that I can't cobble together a reasonable Pick Four Ticket, I'll be sure to post that information here as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment