Race 1 - # 3 Jazzy Josh (Final Odds 1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 4 Gold Journey (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Silent Lure - # 2 Oliver's Tale (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Mrazek (1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - # 1 City Chapel (1.70*) - "B" Selection
It doesn't get much chalkier than what you see above, as the Post Time Favorite crossed the wire first in each of the five legs. Needless to say, such results aren't conducive to high payouts; but you'll hear no complaints from these quarters.
For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the other three runners to which we were alive in Race 5:
# 3 No Contingency (2.20) - $130.40 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Traweek (8.40) - $284.05 Finish: 7th
# 8 Relentless Heat (3.40) - $152.55 Finish: 2nd
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Five sequence of 3 / 4 / 2 / 2 / 1 paid $73.40 for a fifty cent wager. Which, as already mentioned, ain't much, as we collect on our initial wager at approximate odds of 1-4. Still, we collect more than we wagered, which is the very definition of success in this sport; and cashing tickets beats trashing tickets eight ways to Sunday.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 31, 2015
5/31/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview
And so we make it to the end of another month. The Great Race Place has one stakes scheduled for Sunday, the $75k Siren Lure. As it's Race 3 on the card, we'll adjust our play to fit it in, and thus take a run at today's Pick Five.
RACE 1 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ernest Shackleton (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)
# 3 Jazzy Josh (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
None
Ernest Shackleton (Ire) is in for a tag for the first time in his career. Along with the class relief, Ernest Shackleton cuts back in distance from his last effort, where he made a nice middle move only to run out of gas in the stretch.
Jazzy Josh puts the blinkers back on today after beating just one runner home without the hood last time out. There's a lot of early speed in this one; and while Jazzy Josh may be classier than the other front runners, it's possible that they will soften him up enough to allow Ernest Shackleton to swoop in late for the Win.
RACE 2 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Gold Journey (ML 8-5)
B's
# 6 Coded Message (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Classy Chick (ML 5-2)
Gold Journey has finished in the Trifecta in each of her career races on this main track. Gold Journey has earned Beyer Speed figures in each of her last two races that are better than the career best of any other entrant in this field.
Coded Message took the Place at this class level last time out. Classy Chick is taking a big step down on the class ladder.
RACE 3 - The Siren Lure $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Holy Lute (ML 9-5)
# 2 Oliver's Tale (ML 2-1)
B's
RACE 1 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ernest Shackleton (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)
# 3 Jazzy Josh (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
None
Ernest Shackleton (Ire) is in for a tag for the first time in his career. Along with the class relief, Ernest Shackleton cuts back in distance from his last effort, where he made a nice middle move only to run out of gas in the stretch.
Jazzy Josh puts the blinkers back on today after beating just one runner home without the hood last time out. There's a lot of early speed in this one; and while Jazzy Josh may be classier than the other front runners, it's possible that they will soften him up enough to allow Ernest Shackleton to swoop in late for the Win.
RACE 2 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Gold Journey (ML 8-5)
B's
# 6 Coded Message (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Classy Chick (ML 5-2)
Gold Journey has finished in the Trifecta in each of her career races on this main track. Gold Journey has earned Beyer Speed figures in each of her last two races that are better than the career best of any other entrant in this field.
Coded Message took the Place at this class level last time out. Classy Chick is taking a big step down on the class ladder.
RACE 3 - The Siren Lure $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Holy Lute (ML 9-5)
# 2 Oliver's Tale (ML 2-1)
B's
# 5 Pure Tactics (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 County Lineman (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bobby Z Man (ML 6-1)
Holy Lute took the Place charging down the hill in the Grade 3 San Simeon last time out, after having won his only two prior tries competing on the downhill surface. Oliver's Tale was an easy victor last time out, and has won by over three lengths each time that he has charged down the hill.
Pure Tactics won last year's running of this event. County Lineman's late running style should suit him well here, though Trainer Cerin Vladimir's oh-for-thirty-four streak with last out winners is a concern. Bobby Z Man is on the ticket because I'm not going to use "ALL minus one" in any legs of a multi-race wager.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scatastic (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Mrazek (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Incredible Luck (ML 4-1)
# 9 Rickles (No Line) and # 10 Phantom Heat (NL) are program scratches. None of the Also Eligibles (# 11 Quorum of Joy (ML 8-1); # 12 Midvale Magic (ML 7-2); # 13 Small Town Shuffle (ML 8-1); # 14 Captain Akers (ML 8-1)) draw in.
These are all two year old first time starters. Scatastic is sired by Scat Daddy, whose progeny win more than their fair share at first asking. Scatastic's last two works over this main track were quite impressive.
Mrazek, trained by Doug O'Neill, is sired by Square Eddie, whose offspring win 12.5% of their debuts. Incredible Luck is trained by Dan Hendricks, who wins over 25% of the time with two year olds.
RACE 5 - Clm $8k N1Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 No Contingency (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 City Chapel (ML 5-2)
# 5 Traweek (ML 4-1)
# 8 Relentless Heat (ML 4-1)
C's
None
The conditions restrict this contest to those horses who are so far oh-for-2015. No Contingency has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three races. No Contingency projects to be the speed of the speed here.
City Chapel, our old friend, takes a huge step down the class ladder while making his first start for Trainer Richard Baltas. Traweek should rebound with a return to a dry track. Relentless Heat may improve with the turnback in distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P5: 1,3 with 4 with 1,2 with 4 with 3 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 4,6 with 1,2,5 with 2,4 with 1,3,5,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 1 with 1,2 with 4 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 4 with 3,4 with 4 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 4 with 1,2 with 3 with 3 $2.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 30, 2015
5/30/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Desert Dynamo (Final Odds 22.30) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Dead Easy (2.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Californian - # 8 Catch a Flight (Arg) (2.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Pay the Fine (3.30*) - "A" Selection
Desert Dynamo, the "other" Hollendorfer in Race 6, crossed the wire a comfortable four and a half lengths in front of Place horse and "A" Selection # 4 Forest Blue (1.20*) in the opening leg of the sequence; and that was the difference between us cashing or trashing our tickets, as "A" Selections swept the next three races.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 2 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $792.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Dead Easy (2.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Californian - # 8 Catch a Flight (Arg) (2.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Pay the Fine (3.30*) - "A" Selection
Desert Dynamo, the "other" Hollendorfer in Race 6, crossed the wire a comfortable four and a half lengths in front of Place horse and "A" Selection # 4 Forest Blue (1.20*) in the opening leg of the sequence; and that was the difference between us cashing or trashing our tickets, as "A" Selections swept the next three races.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 2 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $792.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/30/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
One more week to go until we find out if American Pharoah will end the Triple Crown drought. Meanwhile, as we enjoy this fifth Saturday in May, The Great Race Place is offering a pair of Graded Stakes: The American Oaks, which is carded as Race 5; and The Californian, which as Race 8 will be a part of the Late Pick Four that we'll be chasing today.
RACE 6 - OC 80k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Forest Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Bronze Star (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Tried and True (ML 3-1)
This is really an N1X, as # 1 Spin Forty (ML 6-1) is the only entrant here with multiple wins (one as a Maiden, the other in a Starter Allowance). Anyway, none of the seven in this field are for sale today.
Forest Blue took the Place in the Grade 3 Lazaro Berrera last time out. Bronze Star makes his second start of the year for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer after taking the Place in an OC 40k last time out. There's a bunch of early speed in this contest; should it all fall apart, Tried and True looks to be the best candidate to swoop in late.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Dead Easy (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 7 Shemp (ML 9-2)
# 8 Not Enough Eddie (ML 15-1)
# 9 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least until they finally fix that flaw).
Dead Easy has finished in the money in each of his last two starts, both at this class level, both charging down the hill. Dead Easy has finished in the Trifecta in three of his four races charging down the hill.
Shemp won his debut charging down the hill last time out. Not Enough Eddie showed good early speed in his only prior turf start, a route on the flats.
Badasmywifeletsmeb has one win in his prior twenty career starts, which is not the type of resume that you look for when choosing candidates to fill out a Pick Four ticket. But Badasmywifletsmeb closed well last time out against stiffer competition than he'll be seeing in this contest. Also note that Badasmywifeletsmeb has earned a Beyer Speed Figure of seventy or greater in seven of his last eight turf outings. There's certainly more here to dislike than there is to like; but I think that, considering the high odds that he's almost certain to go off at, there's enough here to like to warrant including Badasmywifeletsmeb on out tickets.
RACE 8 - The Californian (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Moreno (ML 8-5)
# 8 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 9-5)
B's
None
# 3 You Know I Know (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Moreno, as always, looks like a monster on paper. It amazes me whenever I look at Moreno's form that this horse has so few career Wins. Anyway, Moreno comes into this contest having won the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, while Catch a Flight (Arg) enters this event having won the Grade 3 Precisionist last time out. These two horses were just a head apart from each other back in March when they were watching Shared Belief cross the wire first in the Big Cap. These two are pretty evenly matched, and they appear to stand out from the rest of this field.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 11 Seedsandstemsagain (ML 9-2)
# 12 Pay the Fine (ML 4-1)
B's
RACE 6 - OC 80k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Forest Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Bronze Star (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Tried and True (ML 3-1)
This is really an N1X, as # 1 Spin Forty (ML 6-1) is the only entrant here with multiple wins (one as a Maiden, the other in a Starter Allowance). Anyway, none of the seven in this field are for sale today.
Forest Blue took the Place in the Grade 3 Lazaro Berrera last time out. Bronze Star makes his second start of the year for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer after taking the Place in an OC 40k last time out. There's a bunch of early speed in this contest; should it all fall apart, Tried and True looks to be the best candidate to swoop in late.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Dead Easy (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 7 Shemp (ML 9-2)
# 8 Not Enough Eddie (ML 15-1)
# 9 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least until they finally fix that flaw).
Dead Easy has finished in the money in each of his last two starts, both at this class level, both charging down the hill. Dead Easy has finished in the Trifecta in three of his four races charging down the hill.
Shemp won his debut charging down the hill last time out. Not Enough Eddie showed good early speed in his only prior turf start, a route on the flats.
Badasmywifeletsmeb has one win in his prior twenty career starts, which is not the type of resume that you look for when choosing candidates to fill out a Pick Four ticket. But Badasmywifletsmeb closed well last time out against stiffer competition than he'll be seeing in this contest. Also note that Badasmywifeletsmeb has earned a Beyer Speed Figure of seventy or greater in seven of his last eight turf outings. There's certainly more here to dislike than there is to like; but I think that, considering the high odds that he's almost certain to go off at, there's enough here to like to warrant including Badasmywifeletsmeb on out tickets.
RACE 8 - The Californian (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Moreno (ML 8-5)
# 8 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 9-5)
B's
None
# 3 You Know I Know (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Moreno, as always, looks like a monster on paper. It amazes me whenever I look at Moreno's form that this horse has so few career Wins. Anyway, Moreno comes into this contest having won the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, while Catch a Flight (Arg) enters this event having won the Grade 3 Precisionist last time out. These two horses were just a head apart from each other back in March when they were watching Shared Belief cross the wire first in the Big Cap. These two are pretty evenly matched, and they appear to stand out from the rest of this field.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 11 Seedsandstemsagain (ML 9-2)
# 12 Pay the Fine (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Stormin Trick (ML 6-1)
# 5 Shanty Irish (ML 6-1)
The two Also Eligibles, # 13 Cowboy (ML 6-1) and # 14 Spirited Jacob (ML 50-1) do not draw in and get the afternoon off.
Seedsandstemsagain, Pay the Fine, and Shanty Irish all exit the same last race where they finished second, third, and sixth, respectively. All three look capable enough to graduate today. Stormin Trick, trained by Mike Puype, makes his turf debut after showing good early speed in each of his four prior starts on the dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 2 with 7,8 with 11,12 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 2,7,8,9 with 7,8 with 4,5,11,12 $48.00
Total: $52.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, May 25, 2015
5/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Curlin's Fox (Final Odds 3.00) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 10 Mr. Itkins (4.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Gamely - # 9 Hard Not to Like (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Classic Gent (3.60) - No Selection
"Grade 1 races are won by horses who win Grade 1 races." Had we kept that saying in mind, we might not have spread so wide in the featured eighth race, as the winner was the only prior North American Grade 1 winner in the field. And had we not spread so wide in Race 8, perhaps we would have found room on our tickets for Curlin's Fox in the opener and Classic Gent in the finale, as they were two very logical horses.
But Mr. Itkins? To be honest, I don't see any way I find Mr. Itkins winning Race 7. Yeah, that was a nice bullet work he had on the 18th over the Santa Anita main track. But it had taken Mr. Itkins nine tries to break his maiden; and in his prior three races against winners Mr. Itkins had finished 8th, 5th, and 8th, a combined twenty-eight and a quarter lengths behind the winner at the wire. Even if you threw out his last race because it was on turf, neither of the Beyer Speed Figures that Mr. Itkins had earned in his two starts prior to that would have been in the top three in this field's best last out Beyers. Of course, it's possible that I'm missing something obvious, as Mr. Itkins' final odds were well below his Morning Line of 8-1; so clearly the public was smarter than I was as far as this contest was concerned.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 10 / 9 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $370.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 10 Mr. Itkins (4.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Gamely - # 9 Hard Not to Like (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Classic Gent (3.60) - No Selection
"Grade 1 races are won by horses who win Grade 1 races." Had we kept that saying in mind, we might not have spread so wide in the featured eighth race, as the winner was the only prior North American Grade 1 winner in the field. And had we not spread so wide in Race 8, perhaps we would have found room on our tickets for Curlin's Fox in the opener and Classic Gent in the finale, as they were two very logical horses.
But Mr. Itkins? To be honest, I don't see any way I find Mr. Itkins winning Race 7. Yeah, that was a nice bullet work he had on the 18th over the Santa Anita main track. But it had taken Mr. Itkins nine tries to break his maiden; and in his prior three races against winners Mr. Itkins had finished 8th, 5th, and 8th, a combined twenty-eight and a quarter lengths behind the winner at the wire. Even if you threw out his last race because it was on turf, neither of the Beyer Speed Figures that Mr. Itkins had earned in his two starts prior to that would have been in the top three in this field's best last out Beyers. Of course, it's possible that I'm missing something obvious, as Mr. Itkins' final odds were well below his Morning Line of 8-1; so clearly the public was smarter than I was as far as this contest was concerned.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 10 / 9 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $370.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day. I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it. We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison
It's Memorial Day in the USA, and hopefully all of you who have been blessed with the opportunity to enjoy this holiday in a manner of your own choosing are in the process of doing just that. There are a pair of Graded Stakes being held today at The Great Race Place: the Grade 3 Los Angeles, which is Race 3 on the card; and the Grade 1 Gamely, which is Race 8 in the program, and part of the Late Pick Four which we will be chasing.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Entrechat (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 11 Sea Mona (ML 8-1)
# 12 Provenance (ML 6-1)
# 2 Vanlose Stairway (No Line) and # 5 Unforgettable U (NL) are both program scratches. # 3 Spelling Again (ML 12-1) has also been scratched.
Entrechat was victorious in one of her two career tries charging down the hill; in the other she lost by just a neck. This will be Entrechat's first start against non-Graded Stakes company since breaking her maiden in February.
Sea Mona gets some class relief after taking the Place in two of her last three starts charging down the hill against more expensive stock. Provenance closed well at this class level last time out despite a rough trip.
RACE 7 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Flat Gone (ML 9-2)
# 12 Public Policy (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 6 Black Tornado (ML 20-1)
# 1 Next Right (NL) is a program scratch. # 3 Price of Glory (ML 15-1) and # 9 Warren's T. Baze (ML 6-1) have also been scratched.
Flat Gone, possessor of this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure, takes a huge class drop from open $25k claimers to this conditioned class of non-winners of two lifetime. Black Tornado has finished in the money in two of his three career starts on a fast dirt track.
Public Policy took the Place at this class level two starts back. Public Policy failed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in his last start; hopefully the two and a half month vacation Public Policy has had since that contest will have rejuvenated him. Public Policy also looks on paper to be a solid candidate for the controlling speed in this field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Danza Cavallo (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hard Not to Like (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 3 Blingismything (ML 6-1)
# 4 Fanticola (ML 6-1)
# 6 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 6-1)
We're spreading wide in this one; for while this is a Grade 1 event, in my opinion this is not a Grade 1 field.
Danza Cavallo, trained by Chad Brown, and Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement, ship in from the east, and they should both appreciate a return to a firm turf surface.
Today's distance seems to be ideal for Moulin de Mougin, as she is three-for-four (plus one Show finish) in her career when competing at nine furlongs on the grass. Blingismything won the Grade 3 Wilshire her last time out.
Queen of The Sand (Ire) won the Grade 3 Santa Barbara last time out, with Fanticola just a nose behind. Look for Fanticola to once again be forwardly placed. Generosidade (Uru) was a Grade 1 winner in Brazil the last time she competed over a firm turf course.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Soul Crusher (ML 4-1)
# 6 Show and Tell (ML 7-2)
B's
None
# 4 Win Wish (NL) and # 9 Rare Punch (NL) are program scratches.
Soul Crusher gets some class relief after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out. If Soul Crusher can run back to any of the Beyer Speed Figures that he earned in his four races prior to his last, then he should be an easy winner today.
Show and Tell missed by just a neck of winning at this class level last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,12 with 8,9 with 2,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 10,11,12 with 2,6,12 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10 with 2,6 $63.00
Total: $67.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 24, 2015
5/24/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 5 All Star Bub (Final Odds 2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 3 When We Met (1.80) - "B" Selection
Race 3 - The Charles Whittingham - # 5 Ashleyluvssugar (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 10 Exposure (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Super Majesty (0.70*) - "B" Selection
As we did yesterday, we had all the winning odds-on favorites on our ticket. As we didn't yesterday, we also had all the winning non-favorites as well. Granted, none of the winning non-favorites were kind enough today to go off at double-digit prices; but you'll hear no complaining in these quarters, as we're more than happy to take what the game is giving us.
For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the other three runners to which we were alive in Race 5:
# 2 Tiz Josselyn (4.00) - $198.90 Finish: 6th
# 3 Perdona (7.20) - $266.25 Finish: 5th
# 8 Girl Downstairs (5.80) - $183.40 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. The actual Pick Five sequence of 5 / 3 / 5 / 10 / 7 paid $118.50 for a fifty cent wager. Which, granted, ain't much, as we collect on our initial wager at approximate odds of 4-5. But cashing tickets sure beats trashing them; and like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, nobody ever went broke cashing tickets.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 3 When We Met (1.80) - "B" Selection
Race 3 - The Charles Whittingham - # 5 Ashleyluvssugar (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 10 Exposure (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Super Majesty (0.70*) - "B" Selection
As we did yesterday, we had all the winning odds-on favorites on our ticket. As we didn't yesterday, we also had all the winning non-favorites as well. Granted, none of the winning non-favorites were kind enough today to go off at double-digit prices; but you'll hear no complaining in these quarters, as we're more than happy to take what the game is giving us.
For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the other three runners to which we were alive in Race 5:
# 2 Tiz Josselyn (4.00) - $198.90 Finish: 6th
# 3 Perdona (7.20) - $266.25 Finish: 5th
# 8 Girl Downstairs (5.80) - $183.40 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. The actual Pick Five sequence of 5 / 3 / 5 / 10 / 7 paid $118.50 for a fifty cent wager. Which, granted, ain't much, as we collect on our initial wager at approximate odds of 4-5. But cashing tickets sure beats trashing them; and like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, nobody ever went broke cashing tickets.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/24/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview
We're smack dab in the middle of our Memorial Day weekend; here's hoping that all the great plans that you have made for these three days have been progressing nicely. The featured race today at Santa Anita is the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham; and (no doubt because of the small draw) it's being run early on the card. So we're going to follow suit and move our action to the early portion of the card and take a run at Sunday's Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 1 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dr. Fager's Gal (Morning Line 1-1)
# 5 All Star Bub (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
Dr. Fager's Gal tries winners for the first time and tries two turns for the first time, which makes for more question marks than you would normally prefer from a runner who's even money on the Morning Line. Still, Dr. Fager's Gal did break her maiden convincingly last time out, winning by over two lengths, and earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Also note that Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer gets over twenty percent winners from runners trying to repeat, as well as winning approximately twenty-seven percent of the time that one of his charges makes their second start off an extended vacation.
All Star Bub, the other Hollendorfer entrant in this field, took the Show at this class level over this main track last time out.
RACE 2 - Clm $12.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bluegrass Reward (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 3 When We Met (ML 7-5)
Bluegrass Reward took the Place last time out at what might as well be this class level, as all six entrants in this field are moving up in class off their last outing. Bluegrass Reward also projects to be speed on the rail in this contest; not because he's especially quick, but because on paper this appears to be a rather paceless field.
When We Met was a winner last time out and was claimed; the claim, however, was voided (kudos to those responsible for putting this information in the Past Performances!) and When We Met remained in the barn of Trained Kristin Mulhall (a demerit to the DRF PPs for including "1st Claim" in the Trainer Stats Section for When We Met, as that's obviously irrelevant here). Since this will be When We Met's first start since that voided claim on March 12, it's fair to say that there was at least some validity to the track vet's actions. It's also worth noting that When We Met did not have an on track workout until three weeks after that March 12 win; a workout which took so much out of him that he needed another two weeks before he again worked over the main track.
So is When We Met healthy enough to win today? Well, he has been working steady on track for over a month. In addition, When We Met need not run back to his field best last out Beyer in order to be competitive here. I certainly wouldn't recommend playing When We Met in the Win Pool at his Morning Line odds; but his chances do deserve to be respected at this class level, and for that reason he is on our tickets.
RACE 3 - The Charles Whittingham (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Divine Oath (ML 5-2)
Ashleyluvssurgar won the Grade 2 San Luis Rey last time out over this turf course at today's distance. Divine Oath, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the only other entrant in this field of five with a North American Graded Stakes win.
RACE 4 - (F) Md $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Exposure (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Barbs Angel (ML 8-1)
# 4 Chardonnay Sherry (ML 15-1)
# 7 Stella Moon (ML 7-2)
# 1 Queen's Balladier (No Line) is a program scratch. # 5 Slu Dixie (ML 20-1) is a vet scratch.
Exposure, trained by Bob Baffert, drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. Exposure took the Show against non-claiming maidens in her debut two starts back. Barbs Angel showed good form against more expensive back in October over this main track, and should appreciate the turn back in distance from her last start.
Chardonnay Sherry, who showed good early speed in her starts against non-claiming maidens, runs for a tag for the first time in her career. Stella Moon took the Show at this class level last time out.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Tiz Josselyn (ML 6-1)
# 8 Girl Downstairs (ML 4-1)
B's
RACE 1 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dr. Fager's Gal (Morning Line 1-1)
# 5 All Star Bub (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
Dr. Fager's Gal tries winners for the first time and tries two turns for the first time, which makes for more question marks than you would normally prefer from a runner who's even money on the Morning Line. Still, Dr. Fager's Gal did break her maiden convincingly last time out, winning by over two lengths, and earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Also note that Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer gets over twenty percent winners from runners trying to repeat, as well as winning approximately twenty-seven percent of the time that one of his charges makes their second start off an extended vacation.
All Star Bub, the other Hollendorfer entrant in this field, took the Show at this class level over this main track last time out.
RACE 2 - Clm $12.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bluegrass Reward (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 3 When We Met (ML 7-5)
Bluegrass Reward took the Place last time out at what might as well be this class level, as all six entrants in this field are moving up in class off their last outing. Bluegrass Reward also projects to be speed on the rail in this contest; not because he's especially quick, but because on paper this appears to be a rather paceless field.
When We Met was a winner last time out and was claimed; the claim, however, was voided (kudos to those responsible for putting this information in the Past Performances!) and When We Met remained in the barn of Trained Kristin Mulhall (a demerit to the DRF PPs for including "1st Claim" in the Trainer Stats Section for When We Met, as that's obviously irrelevant here). Since this will be When We Met's first start since that voided claim on March 12, it's fair to say that there was at least some validity to the track vet's actions. It's also worth noting that When We Met did not have an on track workout until three weeks after that March 12 win; a workout which took so much out of him that he needed another two weeks before he again worked over the main track.
So is When We Met healthy enough to win today? Well, he has been working steady on track for over a month. In addition, When We Met need not run back to his field best last out Beyer in order to be competitive here. I certainly wouldn't recommend playing When We Met in the Win Pool at his Morning Line odds; but his chances do deserve to be respected at this class level, and for that reason he is on our tickets.
RACE 3 - The Charles Whittingham (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Divine Oath (ML 5-2)
Ashleyluvssurgar won the Grade 2 San Luis Rey last time out over this turf course at today's distance. Divine Oath, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the only other entrant in this field of five with a North American Graded Stakes win.
RACE 4 - (F) Md $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Exposure (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Barbs Angel (ML 8-1)
# 4 Chardonnay Sherry (ML 15-1)
# 7 Stella Moon (ML 7-2)
# 1 Queen's Balladier (No Line) is a program scratch. # 5 Slu Dixie (ML 20-1) is a vet scratch.
Exposure, trained by Bob Baffert, drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. Exposure took the Show against non-claiming maidens in her debut two starts back. Barbs Angel showed good form against more expensive back in October over this main track, and should appreciate the turn back in distance from her last start.
Chardonnay Sherry, who showed good early speed in her starts against non-claiming maidens, runs for a tag for the first time in her career. Stella Moon took the Show at this class level last time out.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Tiz Josselyn (ML 6-1)
# 8 Girl Downstairs (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Perdona (ML 4-1)
# 7 Super Majesty (ML 5-2)
# 5 Lady Bull (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Tiz Josselyn makes her second career start after earning a field best last out Beyer Speed Figure in her debut. Girl Downstairs, trained by Bob Baffert, makes her three year old debut after showing good early speed in her two starts as a freshman.
First time starter Perdona was sired by Blame, whose progeny win over twenty percent of the time at first asking. Super Majesty, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is also a first time starter; note the bullet work from the gate over this main track on the 17th.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 1,5 with 1 with 5 with 10 with 2,8 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 1,3 with 1,5 with 3,4,7,10 with 2,3,7,8 $64.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 23, 2015
5/23/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Melair - # 3 Sheer Pleasure (Final Odds 0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Snow Chief - # 8 Neveradoubt (41.70) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Tiznow - # 9 Motown Men (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 The Last Express (15.30) - No Selection
Two odds-on favorites won. We had those. Two double-digit longshots came in. We didn't have those.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 8 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $2,862.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Snow Chief - # 8 Neveradoubt (41.70) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Tiznow - # 9 Motown Men (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 The Last Express (15.30) - No Selection
Two odds-on favorites won. We had those. Two double-digit longshots came in. We didn't have those.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 8 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $2,862.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/23/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the start of Memorial Day weekend here in the Good Ole USA, and there's plenty of fine racing on tap throughout North America over the next three days; more than enough to distract us as we cool our heels waiting to see if American Pharoah can end the Triple Crown drought. As for us, we'll be playing in our usual stomping grounds, taking a run at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) The Melair $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sheer Pleasure (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
RACE 7 - [S] (F) The Melair $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sheer Pleasure (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Barbara Beatrice (ML 8-1)
You could call this one "The Turf To Dirt Special" as five of the seven entrants in this field last competed while running over some California grass. Sheer Pleasure, trained by Phil D'Amato, defeated state bred stakes company over this main track last time out; the question today is can she do it while going around two turns. Sheer Pleasure finished out of the money in her only prior attempt at routing; but that contest was, yes, on the turf.
Barbara Beatrice is the other D'Amato entrant in this field, and the one that could be running best late if it all falls apart up front.
RACE 8 - [S] The Snow Chief $200k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
# 4 Zinvor (ML 7-2)
# 5 Grazen Sky (ML 5-2)
Richard's Boy defeated open stakes company charging down the hill last time out. Zinvor tries stakes company for the first time, though he was a clear winner against state bred allowance company last time out. Grazen Sky was victorious against state bred stakes company upstate last time out; today will be Grazen Sky's first time on the Santa Anita sod.
RACE 9 - [S] The Tiznow $150k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Motown Men (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Solid Wager (ML 20-1)
# 7 Poshsky (ML 8-1)
Motown Men took the Show in the Grade 3 Precisionist over this main track last time out. Motown Men should dominate with the class drop; but there is a concern that Motown Men needs the early lead to win. If that's true, then Motown Men may have some difficulties today, as there is a lot of early speed here. And should all that early speed fall apart, then Solid Wager and Poshsky, both trained by Peter Miller, appear to be the most likely candidates to pick up the pieces late. Note also that the last two times Solid Wager visited the Winner's Circle today's rider Victor Espinoza was on his back.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Ace Duece (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Prohibition Repeal (ML 9-2)
# 6 Pacific Channel (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Custodian (ML 9-2)
# 10 Brimstoned (ML 8-1)
# 12 Los Gatos (ML 4-1)
# 13 Sir Cal (ML 9-2)
# 8 Papa Z (ML 15-1) has been scratched. Bring in Sir Cal off the Also Eligibles List, but let # 14 Shanty Irish (ML 4-1) stay in the barn.
Ace Duece has taken the Place in his three prior career tries on the grass; he looks like a good candidate today to take the next step forward. Ace Duece could also find himself all alone upfront in the early going, much like his last time out; except this time Ace Deuce will have one less furlong to navigate.
Prohibition Repeal missed by less than a length the only prior time that he tried the grass. Pacific Channel, son of English Channel, should improve greatly in his first try on the turf. The Custodian has certainly had his chances in the past; but perhaps having undergone the ultimate equipment change since his last time out will give him the extra boost that he needs.
Brimstoned, Los Gatos, and Sir Cal all closed well their last time out, charging down the hill, when they all finished within a length of each other. Perhaps today one of them will find the added distance and the flat surface more to their liking.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 5 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 2,4,5 with 1,7,9 with 2,5,6,7,10,12,13 $63.00
Total: $65.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 17, 2015
5/17/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Forest Chatter (Final Odds 0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Parliamentarian (3.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Clever Royal (4.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Stringent (12.70) - No Selection
We had Forest Chatter; but then again, so did everyone else. We had the Place horse on our big ticket in the three legs we missed; but that's really small consolation. We also got to see what may be the start of a great career, as first time starter Stringent made a huge move around the turn and into the stretch to win the finale. As Stringent is sired by Lemon Drop Kid, it stands to reason that he should only get better as he stretches out from today's distance of five and a half furlongs. But that's information that may help us in the future; as for our play today, it was pretty much beyond help.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 9 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $488.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Parliamentarian (3.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Clever Royal (4.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Stringent (12.70) - No Selection
We had Forest Chatter; but then again, so did everyone else. We had the Place horse on our big ticket in the three legs we missed; but that's really small consolation. We also got to see what may be the start of a great career, as first time starter Stringent made a huge move around the turn and into the stretch to win the finale. As Stringent is sired by Lemon Drop Kid, it stands to reason that he should only get better as he stretches out from today's distance of five and a half furlongs. But that's information that may help us in the future; as for our play today, it was pretty much beyond help.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 9 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $488.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/17/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Congratulations to yesterday's Preakness winner American Pharoah, as well as to Trainer Bob Baffert and Jockey Victor Espinoza, who get another crack at thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown. For those looking for my preview of yesterday's action don't bother, as there was no preview from me, as I decided to pass based upon the uncertainty of the Baltimore weather forecast (specifically as to exactly when the predicted torrential rains would begin). But we're back in action again today as we take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Pepnic (Morning Line 12-1)
# 6 U S Citizen (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Forest Chatter (ML 9-5)
# 8 Horizontally Speaking (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Pepnic took the Show two of the last three times that he competed at this class level charging down the hill. U S Citizen is getting some significant class relief here. Forest Chatter, a perfect three-for-three in his career on the Santa Anita grass, takes the next step up the class ladder after winning clear charging down the hill against OC/N1X company.
Horizontally Speaking was claimed for $62.5k last time out; which doesn't speak well for this barn, as this same horse could have been had for $50k not once but twice earlier this year. The fact that Horizontally speaking is now being offered back for sale at the same price for which he was claimed is also far from reassuring. But Horizontally Speaking has shown the ability to compete at this class level; and the fact that he's shown good early speed when routing on the flat turf course suggests that he may do well when charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Peacenik (ML 6-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Pepper Sweet (ML 4-1)
Peacenik takes a slight drop in class after being claimed for $10k last time out. While it's not exactly inspiring to see the new barn run him for less than the amount they just paid for him, the Beyer Speed Figures that Peacenik has earned over his last three races standout as clearly better than that which the rest of the field has accomplished in that span. If Peacenik should fail to fire today, our hope is that Pepper Sweet can swoop in late to pass the early speed that is entered in this contest.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Something Unusual (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Labour (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Back to Bako (ML 15-1)
# 6 Tosheen (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Something Unusual took the Place two starts back against Alw N1X company charging down the hill. Labour (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in his native Argentina, and has been working a steady pattern here over the last several weeks.
Back to Bako may have needed that race back in March after having not competed since June 2014. Tosheen took the Place against this class level charging down the hill two starts back, and may be the speed of the speed here today.
RACE 9 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tossin Bullets (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellamy Concerto (ML 5-1)
# 7 Hook 'Em Kurt (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Mr. Pucci (ML 7-2)
# 11 Lamu (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sleepwalker (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tossmeacutie (ML 20-1)
Bellamy Concerto and Hook 'Em Kurt are two of the three experienced runners in this contest; each has finished in the money at least once at this class level. Tossin Bullets, sired by Lookin At Lucky, is one of two first time starters in this field going for Trainer Bob Baffert; Lamu, sired by Malibu Moon, is the other.
Mr. Pucci, also sired by Malibu Moon, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Sleepwalker is sired by Graeme Hall, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their initial attempts. Tossmeacutie makes his second career start after showing brief early speed in his debut.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3,6 with 9 with 8 with 5,6,7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 pick P4: 2,3,6,8 with 9 with 2,5,6,8 with 4,5,6,7,11 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 3,6 with 2 with 8 with 5,6,7 $3.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Pepnic (Morning Line 12-1)
# 6 U S Citizen (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Forest Chatter (ML 9-5)
# 8 Horizontally Speaking (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Pepnic took the Show two of the last three times that he competed at this class level charging down the hill. U S Citizen is getting some significant class relief here. Forest Chatter, a perfect three-for-three in his career on the Santa Anita grass, takes the next step up the class ladder after winning clear charging down the hill against OC/N1X company.
Horizontally Speaking was claimed for $62.5k last time out; which doesn't speak well for this barn, as this same horse could have been had for $50k not once but twice earlier this year. The fact that Horizontally speaking is now being offered back for sale at the same price for which he was claimed is also far from reassuring. But Horizontally Speaking has shown the ability to compete at this class level; and the fact that he's shown good early speed when routing on the flat turf course suggests that he may do well when charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Peacenik (ML 6-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Pepper Sweet (ML 4-1)
Peacenik takes a slight drop in class after being claimed for $10k last time out. While it's not exactly inspiring to see the new barn run him for less than the amount they just paid for him, the Beyer Speed Figures that Peacenik has earned over his last three races standout as clearly better than that which the rest of the field has accomplished in that span. If Peacenik should fail to fire today, our hope is that Pepper Sweet can swoop in late to pass the early speed that is entered in this contest.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Something Unusual (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Labour (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Back to Bako (ML 15-1)
# 6 Tosheen (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Something Unusual took the Place two starts back against Alw N1X company charging down the hill. Labour (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in his native Argentina, and has been working a steady pattern here over the last several weeks.
Back to Bako may have needed that race back in March after having not competed since June 2014. Tosheen took the Place against this class level charging down the hill two starts back, and may be the speed of the speed here today.
RACE 9 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tossin Bullets (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellamy Concerto (ML 5-1)
# 7 Hook 'Em Kurt (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Mr. Pucci (ML 7-2)
# 11 Lamu (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sleepwalker (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tossmeacutie (ML 20-1)
Bellamy Concerto and Hook 'Em Kurt are two of the three experienced runners in this contest; each has finished in the money at least once at this class level. Tossin Bullets, sired by Lookin At Lucky, is one of two first time starters in this field going for Trainer Bob Baffert; Lamu, sired by Malibu Moon, is the other.
Mr. Pucci, also sired by Malibu Moon, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Sleepwalker is sired by Graeme Hall, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their initial attempts. Tossmeacutie makes his second career start after showing brief early speed in his debut.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3,6 with 9 with 8 with 5,6,7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 pick P4: 2,3,6,8 with 9 with 2,5,6,8 with 4,5,6,7,11 $40.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3,6 with 2 with 8 with 5,6,7 $3.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3,6 with 9 with 8 with 3,8 $2.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 15, 2015
5/15/15 Pimlico All-Stakes Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Miss Preakness - # 9 Irish Jasper (Final Odds 5.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint - # 3 Ben's Cat (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The DuPont Distaff - # 2 Stopchargingmaria (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Black-Eyed Susan - # 9 Keen Pauline (15.40) - No Selection
Keen Pauline, who had never before in her five prior career races had the lead at first call (nor, for that matter, at second call; nor for that matter, at third call) jumped to the front of the field right out of the gate, walked in front of the other eight entrants to the tune of an opening half covered in 49.09, and was never headed, crossing the wire two and three quarter lengths in front of her nearest rival, with the four runners we covered occupying positions two-through-five (inclusive) in the final order of finish.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale, in the order in which they crossed the finish line:
# 5 Include Betty (4.90) - $140.90
# 3 Ahh Chocolate (4.10) - $139.05
# 1 Danessa Deluxe (4.60) - $133.70
# 8 Luminance (1.30*) - $64.80
But such was not to be.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 3 / 2 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $665.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint - # 3 Ben's Cat (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The DuPont Distaff - # 2 Stopchargingmaria (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Black-Eyed Susan - # 9 Keen Pauline (15.40) - No Selection
Keen Pauline, who had never before in her five prior career races had the lead at first call (nor, for that matter, at second call; nor for that matter, at third call) jumped to the front of the field right out of the gate, walked in front of the other eight entrants to the tune of an opening half covered in 49.09, and was never headed, crossing the wire two and three quarter lengths in front of her nearest rival, with the four runners we covered occupying positions two-through-five (inclusive) in the final order of finish.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale, in the order in which they crossed the finish line:
# 5 Include Betty (4.90) - $140.90
# 3 Ahh Chocolate (4.10) - $139.05
# 1 Danessa Deluxe (4.60) - $133.70
# 8 Luminance (1.30*) - $64.80
But such was not to be.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 3 / 2 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $665.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/15/15 Pimlico All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico, a.k.a. Preakness Eve, and they've put together an excellent card, with a wide variety of wagering options. I originally planned to take a shot at today's ten cent Rainbow Pick Six, or perhaps the low takeout Pick Five; but I found the two Allowance Races starting the Pick Six sequence (Races 6 and 7) pretty inscrutable, and figured that I would have to go at least four deep in each. Since I couldn't find a suitable single in the subsequent stakes races, I concluded that playing either the Pick Six or the Pick Five would be too much of a budget buster; so I decided instead to focus my attention of the All-Stakes Pick Four.
RACE 8 - (F) The Miss Preakness (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Irish Jasper (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 6 Divine Dawn (ML 5-1)
# 11 Huasca (ML 8-1)
# 1 Enchanting Lady (ML 3-1); # 3 Miss Ella (ML 4-1); and # 5 Regina Christina (ML 30-1) have all been scratched.
Irish Jasper, a two time stakes winner, should get a nice press-and-pounce trip from the outside. Divine Dawn, trained by Larry Jones, took the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Beaumont. Divine Dawn should appreciate the turn back in distance today. Huasca has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
RACE 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Amelia's Wild Ride (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Ben's Cat (ML 2-1)
# 7 Bold Thunder (ML 7-2)
Amelia's Wild Ride, winner of the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint back in February, should appreciate the return to a firm turf surface today. Ben's Cat won the running of this event last year; albeit when it was taken off the grass. Look for Ben's Cat to be doing his best running late, while Bold Thunder could be the one leading the field early, and possibly all the way to the wire.
RACE 10 - (F) The DuPont Distaff (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Stopchargingmaria (ML 9-5)
B's
# 5 Fortune Pearl (ML 8-1)
# 10 Yahilwa (ML 9-2)
# 7 Before You Know It (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Stopchargingmaria is that class of this field, and she'll be getting some class relief today after taking the Place in the Grade 1 Madison last time out. Fortune Pearl, trained by Graham Motion, could be cycling up to a big number. Yahilwa, winner of the Grade 3 Sixty Sails last time out, shares with Stopchargingmaria the honor of having the best last out Beyer Speed Figure.
RACE 11 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Include Betty (ML 5-1)
# 8 Luminance (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Danessa Deluxe (ML 9-2)
# 3 Ahh Chocolate (ML 6-1)
Include Betty, trained by Tom Proctor and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, took the Grade 3 Fantasy two starts back. Luminance, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks last time out.
Danessa Deluxe shares with Luminance the honor of having the best last out Beer Speed Figure. Look for Danessa Deluxe and Ahh Chocolate to be doing their best running late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 9 with 9 with 2 with 5,8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,9,11 with 3,7,9 with 2,5,10 with 1,3,5,8 $54.00
Total: $55.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:23 EDT / 12.23 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 10, 2015
5/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Keegers (Final Odds 10.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Lazaro Barrera - # 7 Kentuckian (1.00*) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Famous Alice (5.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Cook Inlet (67.90) - No Selection
As we've often said in this space, miss one or miss 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line. Well, today we managed to miss 'em all. Keegers got up in the final strides of the opening leg to defeat our "B" Selection, # 1 Hye I'm Jack (1.90) by a head; and it was all downhill from there.
We made a deliberate point of playing against the Favorite Kentuckian in the featured race, and he won by over a half dozen lengths. We had no part of any of the horses that finished in the Superfecta in Race 8; and, despite going eight deep in a ten horse field, we managed to whiff on the winner in the finale. There are days when this sport can truly humble you, and today was definitely one of those days.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 7 / 3 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $8,485.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Lazaro Barrera - # 7 Kentuckian (1.00*) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Famous Alice (5.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Cook Inlet (67.90) - No Selection
As we've often said in this space, miss one or miss 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line. Well, today we managed to miss 'em all. Keegers got up in the final strides of the opening leg to defeat our "B" Selection, # 1 Hye I'm Jack (1.90) by a head; and it was all downhill from there.
We made a deliberate point of playing against the Favorite Kentuckian in the featured race, and he won by over a half dozen lengths. We had no part of any of the horses that finished in the Superfecta in Race 8; and, despite going eight deep in a ten horse field, we managed to whiff on the winner in the finale. There are days when this sport can truly humble you, and today was definitely one of those days.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 7 / 3 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $8,485.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Happy Mother's Day everyone! I hope everyone is enjoying the day in their own personal manner of choosing; which is exactly what I'll be doing as we take a run at today's Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Soul Crusher (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Soul Crusher (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Hye I'm Jack (ML 5-2)
Soul Crusher drops back down into the Maiden Claiming ranks after earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure against non-claiming Maidens. Hye I'm Jack moves from state bred restricted fields into open company, so the lower price tag really isn't a class drop; but Hye I'm Jack does project to be early speed on the rail, and that could prove to be dangerous in this field.
RACE 7 - The Lazaro Berrera (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Yiannis (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Forest Blue (ML 8-1)
# 5 The Gomper (ML 4-1)
# 2 The Man (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Yiannis, the only runner in this contest not trained by either Jerry Hollendorfer or Peter Miller, is also the only runner in this contest to have won against stakes competition, having crossed the wire first last time out in the San Pedro. Forest Blue is a second time starter who was pulling away from the field in the stretch in his debut win at six furlongs. The Gomper, moving from the barn of Trainer Ron Ellis to Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the one that could be running best late.
# 7 Kentuckian (ML 5-2), trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith, is sired by Tiznow out of an Unbridled's Song mare; to me, that means that this horse is much better suited to grass than to a fast dirt track. That's not to say that Kentuckian can't win today, as he is a talented horse; but it does mean that I won't be using him in our Late Pick Four play; so if Kentuckian wins today, he will turn our Late Pick Four tickets into trash.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Moanin (Fr) (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Diamond Stilettos (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Moanin (Fr) took the Place last time out at this class level in her North American debut. Moanin was a two time Allowance company winner in her native France. Diamond Stilettos missed by just a length at this class level last time out; the turnback in distance could prove beneficial.
RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Buffalo (Brz) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Trucial State (ML 8-1)
# 12 Bixley (ML 5-2)
# 13 On the Key (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 1 Fonz (ML 3-1)
# 5 Broadway Nika (ML 6-1)
# 8 Relentless Heat (ML 4-1)
# 10 Titled Nobility (ML 15-1)
# 4 Dekko (Arg) (No Line), # 6 Two Is to Many (NL), and # 11 Pioneer Charlie (NL) are all program scratches.
Buffalo (Brz), a stakes winner in his native Brazil, drops into the lowest price tag of his career. Trucial State took the Place at this class level last time out. Four starts back, Trucial won at this class level. On the Key ships in from out of state, having earned this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure.
Bixley is pretty much the definition of a suspicious class drop, returning as he is to competition after a ten month layoff after having defeated much more expensive stock last time out. Still, Trainer Robertino Diodoro wins frequently enough with those coming back from an extended holiday that Bixley must be respected here.
Fonz has finished in the money each of the last three times that today's jockey, Rafael Bejarano, was on his back. However, Fonz is moving today from conditioned claimers to the open claiming ranks, so the lower price tag really isn't a true class drop.
Broadway Nika won by the length of the grandstand three starts back against more expensive stock. In two of the three starts prior to that one, Broadway Nika recorded victories at today's class level. Relentless Heat took the Show at this class level last time out. Titled Nobility took the Show against more expensive three starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 1 with 2,7,12,13 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,9 with 1,4,5 with 1,2 with 1,2,5,7,8,10,12,13 $48.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 9, 2015
5/9/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 11 Oligarch (Final Odds 2.40) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Cherubim (8.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The American - # 8 Bal a Bali (Brz) (1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Momma Tried (13.70) - No Selection
We were wrong about just how good Bal a Bali (Brz) was, as he proved quite adept in winning his North American debut. But that was not a problem, as we still had Bal a Bali on our tickets. We were also wrong about the winning capabilities of Momma Tried in the finale, and that was a problem, as we did not have Momma Tried on any of our tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Hired Gun (15.90) - $1311.45
# 4 Practical (7.40) - $632.85
# 5 Go Jeremiah (5.10) - $443.10
# 10 Sure Victory (3.30) - $179.15
But such was not to be.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 8 / 8 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,266.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Cherubim (8.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The American - # 8 Bal a Bali (Brz) (1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Momma Tried (13.70) - No Selection
We were wrong about just how good Bal a Bali (Brz) was, as he proved quite adept in winning his North American debut. But that was not a problem, as we still had Bal a Bali on our tickets. We were also wrong about the winning capabilities of Momma Tried in the finale, and that was a problem, as we did not have Momma Tried on any of our tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Hired Gun (15.90) - $1311.45
# 4 Practical (7.40) - $632.85
# 5 Go Jeremiah (5.10) - $443.10
# 10 Sure Victory (3.30) - $179.15
But such was not to be.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 8 / 8 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,266.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/9/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
We're at the off week between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes; still, there's plenty of great racing today on both coasts. On the East coast Belmont Park is running The Man o' War Stakes as well as The Peter Pan, while Monmouth Park is enjoying it's Opening Day. As for us, we'll be turning our attention to the West, and taking a run at The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Nextdoorneighbor (Morning Line 8-5)
B’s
# 11 Oligarch (ML 5-1)
# 1 I'm Not Gray (NL) and # 7 Grazen's Hope (NL) are program scratches.
Nextdoorneighbor misses by just half a length of entering this contest with a five race winning streak. Nextdoorneighbor's one loss during that stretch came at this class level in February to Oligarch. These two appear to be a few strides ahead of the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 13 May B (ML 9-2)
B’s
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Nextdoorneighbor (Morning Line 8-5)
B’s
# 11 Oligarch (ML 5-1)
# 1 I'm Not Gray (NL) and # 7 Grazen's Hope (NL) are program scratches.
Nextdoorneighbor misses by just half a length of entering this contest with a five race winning streak. Nextdoorneighbor's one loss during that stretch came at this class level in February to Oligarch. These two appear to be a few strides ahead of the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 13 May B (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 5 Pat the Bear (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cherubim (ML 5-1)
# 9 Success Rate (ML 15-1)
C's
# 10 Bronze Star (ML 12-1)
# 3 Back to Bako (NL) is a program scratch.
May B took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out, in the process earning a Beyer's Speed Figure equaling his career best, which had been earned in his debut last June. Pat the Bear has finished in the Exacta in all three of his prior career races over this main track.
Cherubim returns to action after a six month vacation; Trainer Phil D'Amato wins with nearly one third of such. Cherubim also posted a nice bullet work over this main track last Saturday, so he should be ready to roll today.
Success Rate did a fine job rating last time out over this main track, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that fits in well with the contenders in this field. Bronze Star probably needs a race, but the possibility of getting double digit odds on the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith is just too tempting to completely pass up.
RACE 8 - The American (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Talco (Fr) (ML 5-2)
# 8 Bal a Bali (Brz) (ML 9-5)
Winning Prize (Arg) was just a head behind Talco (Fr) at the wire last time out over this turf course in the Thunder Road Stakes. I expect Winning Prize to turn the tables on Talco today because I feel that Winning Prize is more likely to move forward off of last month's effort, because Winning Prize has shown in the past the ability to do better than he did in the Thunder Road; meanwhile, Talco's effort in that contest was a career best for him, so I would not be surprised to see Talco take a step back off that effort today. Still, these are both two talented horses who fit well at this level, and either of them could win today.
Bal a Bali (Brz) is listed as the Morning Line Favorite here; and to be honest, I certainly wouldn't bet him in the Win Pool at odds of 9-5. Bal a Bali, in addition to making his North American debut, is also making his first start in eleven months. There is certainly talent here, as can be seen by all the Graded Stakes victories, which is why Bal a Bali is on this ticket; note especially the win in the Grade 1 Estado de Rio de Jeneiro, where Bal a Bali covered the eight furlongs in 1:31 1/5. But for a Win Pool wager, I'd be looking to get longer odds than the Morning Line for a runner that seems to be merely prepping for bigger things later this Summer and Fall.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Go Jeremiah (ML 6-1)
# 10 Sure Victory (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Hired Gun (ML 10-1)
# 4 Practical (ML 6-1)
# 9 Smooven Square (ML 5-1) has been scratched.
Go Jeremiah took the Place at this class level last time out. Sure Victory makes his first start after an extended layoff for Trainer Phil D'Amato. Hired Gun drops in class for his second career start for Trainer Doug O'Neill. Practical lead most of the way at this class level last time out before settling for the Show; perhaps the turn back in distance will be enough to get him into the Winner's Circle today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 13 with 3 with 5.10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 5,8,9,13 with 3,5,8 with 1,4,5,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9 with 10 with 3 with 5,10 $1.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, May 7, 2015
2015 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up
And we're back.
First things first: it was, as in years past, yet another wonderful reunion with the Derby Crew. There are few things in life more rewarding than reconnecting with old friends, and this occasion was no exception. Sadly, this year's get-together was, as it seems every year, much too brief; indeed, it felt as if only a few blinks of the eye had passed from the time we were saying our hellos to the moment it was time to say good-bye. Sadder still, not all members of the crew were able to make it this year; hopefully that will change with our next scheduled gathering.
I would be remiss were I to not thank the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for the splendid job they all did in yet again taking care of the Derby Crew. Indeed, the consistency with which the crew receives outstanding customer service from the staff of Green Valley Ranch makes it tempting for me to simply cut and paste everything that I wrote last year upon my return.
Yes, as always the grounds at Green Valley Ranch were strikingly beautiful; and, yes, the rooms were yet again spacious and clean. But as you should surmise from even a casual reading of this blog, it's the Race Book that draws the crew to Green Valley Ranch and keeps us coming back year after year. Bert Cirincione (Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operation at Green Valley Ranch) and Celena Sams (Race and Sports Supervisor) did yet another wonderful job of seeing to it that all the Derby Crew needs were met throughout our stay, as they and the entire staff provided a level of customer service that simply cannot be surpassed. So to Bert, Celena, our cocktail waitress Sharon, and indeed, all the waitresses, ticket writers, and each and every staff member of the Race Book in particular and GVR as a whole, thank you for all you did in adding to the crew's enjoyment of the Kentucky Derby.
As to the actual running of the Kentucky Derby, I wrote in my Derby preview post that I would be leaning heavily on # 3 Materiality (Final Odds 11.50). So let me just state right up front that, as far as our Derby wagering was concerned, it was another case of:
Oh well; onto the next race.
But while he was not among the top finishers, it's hard to feel disappointment at the effort shown by Materiality. The poor Post Position draw as well as his inexperience doomed Materiality from the start, as he hesitated at the break; indeed, you'll notice the remark at the top of the Equibase chart of the Kentucky Derby that the start was "Good for all except 3 [Materiality], 15 [Frosted (10.30)]". But despite the poor beginning Materiality didn't quit, and he did a fine job of running late, gaining seven lengths on the leader in the stretch. I don't know what plans Materiality's connections have for his future, but I believe that he showed that he is definitely a horse to keep your eyes on.
As to the winner, # 18 American Pharoah (2.90*), this marks the third year in a row that the Kentucky Derby winner was the Post Time Favorite. Obviously the public is getting much smarter about selecting its Derby runners! Seriously, this year's renewal of the Derby produced a very formful race, as five of the six runners who went to post at odds below 12-1 occupied the top half dozen slots on the chart. # 5 Danzig Moon (22.60) was the only entrant with odds higher than 12-1 to finish in the top six, as he crossed the wire fifth; while # 2 Carpe Diem (7.70) was the only short priced horse to not hit the board.
So what key information can we take from the Derby to help us with our Preakness bets? Well, as so many have already noted, the top three finishers in the Derby (American Pharoah; # 10 Firing Line (9.50); and # 8 Dortmund (4.30)) were also the top three runners at each and every call of the race. So was this a case of the race shape heavily influencing the final result? Or was this simply a case of the best three runners taking it to the rest of the field right from the opening bell? Time will no doubt tell, but when I see a result where the horses that were first through fifth at the top of the stretch crossed the finish line in that exact same order, I tend to give a lot of consideration next time out to any horses that actually gained ground on the leaders during that stretch drive; and, lo and behold, that just leads us right back to Materiality, as well as # 14 Keen Ice (45.80). As I type this, Materiality's participation in the Preakness is still unclear; while it appears that Keen Ice, a son of Curlin, is being pointed toward the Belmont.
So congrats to American Pharoah and his connections, including Jockey Victor Espinoza, who picks up his third career Kentucky Derby win; and good luck to all participants as we move forward towards the next jewel in the Triple Crown.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
First things first: it was, as in years past, yet another wonderful reunion with the Derby Crew. There are few things in life more rewarding than reconnecting with old friends, and this occasion was no exception. Sadly, this year's get-together was, as it seems every year, much too brief; indeed, it felt as if only a few blinks of the eye had passed from the time we were saying our hellos to the moment it was time to say good-bye. Sadder still, not all members of the crew were able to make it this year; hopefully that will change with our next scheduled gathering.
I would be remiss were I to not thank the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for the splendid job they all did in yet again taking care of the Derby Crew. Indeed, the consistency with which the crew receives outstanding customer service from the staff of Green Valley Ranch makes it tempting for me to simply cut and paste everything that I wrote last year upon my return.
Yes, as always the grounds at Green Valley Ranch were strikingly beautiful; and, yes, the rooms were yet again spacious and clean. But as you should surmise from even a casual reading of this blog, it's the Race Book that draws the crew to Green Valley Ranch and keeps us coming back year after year. Bert Cirincione (Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operation at Green Valley Ranch) and Celena Sams (Race and Sports Supervisor) did yet another wonderful job of seeing to it that all the Derby Crew needs were met throughout our stay, as they and the entire staff provided a level of customer service that simply cannot be surpassed. So to Bert, Celena, our cocktail waitress Sharon, and indeed, all the waitresses, ticket writers, and each and every staff member of the Race Book in particular and GVR as a whole, thank you for all you did in adding to the crew's enjoyment of the Kentucky Derby.
As to the actual running of the Kentucky Derby, I wrote in my Derby preview post that I would be leaning heavily on # 3 Materiality (Final Odds 11.50). So let me just state right up front that, as far as our Derby wagering was concerned, it was another case of:
Oh well; onto the next race.
But while he was not among the top finishers, it's hard to feel disappointment at the effort shown by Materiality. The poor Post Position draw as well as his inexperience doomed Materiality from the start, as he hesitated at the break; indeed, you'll notice the remark at the top of the Equibase chart of the Kentucky Derby that the start was "Good for all except 3 [Materiality], 15 [Frosted (10.30)]". But despite the poor beginning Materiality didn't quit, and he did a fine job of running late, gaining seven lengths on the leader in the stretch. I don't know what plans Materiality's connections have for his future, but I believe that he showed that he is definitely a horse to keep your eyes on.
As to the winner, # 18 American Pharoah (2.90*), this marks the third year in a row that the Kentucky Derby winner was the Post Time Favorite. Obviously the public is getting much smarter about selecting its Derby runners! Seriously, this year's renewal of the Derby produced a very formful race, as five of the six runners who went to post at odds below 12-1 occupied the top half dozen slots on the chart. # 5 Danzig Moon (22.60) was the only entrant with odds higher than 12-1 to finish in the top six, as he crossed the wire fifth; while # 2 Carpe Diem (7.70) was the only short priced horse to not hit the board.
So what key information can we take from the Derby to help us with our Preakness bets? Well, as so many have already noted, the top three finishers in the Derby (American Pharoah; # 10 Firing Line (9.50); and # 8 Dortmund (4.30)) were also the top three runners at each and every call of the race. So was this a case of the race shape heavily influencing the final result? Or was this simply a case of the best three runners taking it to the rest of the field right from the opening bell? Time will no doubt tell, but when I see a result where the horses that were first through fifth at the top of the stretch crossed the finish line in that exact same order, I tend to give a lot of consideration next time out to any horses that actually gained ground on the leaders during that stretch drive; and, lo and behold, that just leads us right back to Materiality, as well as # 14 Keen Ice (45.80). As I type this, Materiality's participation in the Preakness is still unclear; while it appears that Keen Ice, a son of Curlin, is being pointed toward the Belmont.
So congrats to American Pharoah and his connections, including Jockey Victor Espinoza, who picks up his third career Kentucky Derby win; and good luck to all participants as we move forward towards the next jewel in the Triple Crown.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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