Monday, May 25, 2015

5/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day.  I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it.  We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison

It's Memorial Day in the USA, and hopefully all of you who have been blessed with the opportunity to enjoy this holiday in a manner of your own choosing are in the process of doing just that.  There are a pair of Graded Stakes being held today at The Great Race Place: the Grade 3 Los Angeles, which is Race 3 on the card; and the Grade 1 Gamely, which is Race 8 in the program, and part of the Late Pick Four which we will be chasing.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 10 Entrechat (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 11 Sea Mona (ML 8-1)
# 12 Provenance (ML 6-1)

# 2 Vanlose Stairway (No Line) and # 5 Unforgettable U (NL) are both program scratches.  # 3 Spelling Again (ML 12-1) has also been scratched.

Entrechat was victorious in one of her two career tries charging down the hill; in the other she lost by just a neck.  This will be Entrechat's first start against non-Graded Stakes company since breaking her maiden in February.

Sea Mona gets some class relief after taking the Place in two of her last three starts charging down the hill against more expensive stock.  Provenance closed well at this class level last time out despite a rough trip.

RACE 7 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Flat Gone (ML 9-2)
# 12 Public Policy (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 6 Black Tornado (ML 20-1)

# 1 Next Right (NL) is a program scratch.  # 3 Price of Glory (ML 15-1) and # 9 Warren's T. Baze (ML 6-1) have also been scratched.

Flat Gone, possessor of this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure, takes a huge class drop from open $25k claimers to this conditioned class of non-winners of two lifetime.  Black Tornado has finished in the money in two of his three career starts on a fast dirt track.

Public Policy took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Public Policy failed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in his last start; hopefully the two and a half month vacation Public Policy has had since that contest will have rejuvenated him.  Public Policy also looks on paper to be a solid candidate for the controlling speed in this field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Danza Cavallo (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hard Not to Like (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 3 Blingismything (ML 6-1)
# 4 Fanticola (ML 6-1)
# 6 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 6-1)

We're spreading wide in this one; for while this is a Grade 1 event, in my opinion this is not a Grade 1 field.

Danza Cavallo, trained by Chad Brown, and Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement, ship in from the east, and they should both appreciate a return to a firm turf surface.  

Today's distance seems to be ideal for Moulin de Mougin, as she is three-for-four (plus one Show finish) in her career when competing at nine furlongs on the grass.  Blingismything won the Grade 3 Wilshire her last time out.

Queen of The Sand (Ire) won the Grade 3 Santa Barbara last time out, with Fanticola just a nose behind.  Look for Fanticola to once again be forwardly placed.  Generosidade (Uru) was a Grade 1 winner in Brazil the last time she competed over a firm turf course.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Soul Crusher (ML 4-1)
# 6 Show and Tell (ML 7-2)

B's

None

# 4 Win Wish (NL) and # 9 Rare Punch (NL) are program scratches.

Soul Crusher gets some class relief after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  If Soul Crusher can run back to any of the Beyer Speed Figures that he earned in his four races prior to his last, then he should be an easy winner today.  

Show and Tell missed by just a neck of winning at this class level last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,12 with 8,9 with 2,6 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 10,11,12 with 2,6,12 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10 with 2,6 $63.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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