RACE 1 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ernest Shackleton (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)
# 3 Jazzy Josh (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
None
Ernest Shackleton (Ire) is in for a tag for the first time in his career. Along with the class relief, Ernest Shackleton cuts back in distance from his last effort, where he made a nice middle move only to run out of gas in the stretch.
Jazzy Josh puts the blinkers back on today after beating just one runner home without the hood last time out. There's a lot of early speed in this one; and while Jazzy Josh may be classier than the other front runners, it's possible that they will soften him up enough to allow Ernest Shackleton to swoop in late for the Win.
RACE 2 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Gold Journey (ML 8-5)
B's
# 6 Coded Message (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Classy Chick (ML 5-2)
Gold Journey has finished in the Trifecta in each of her career races on this main track. Gold Journey has earned Beyer Speed figures in each of her last two races that are better than the career best of any other entrant in this field.
Coded Message took the Place at this class level last time out. Classy Chick is taking a big step down on the class ladder.
RACE 3 - The Siren Lure $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Holy Lute (ML 9-5)
# 2 Oliver's Tale (ML 2-1)
B's
# 5 Pure Tactics (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 County Lineman (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bobby Z Man (ML 6-1)
Holy Lute took the Place charging down the hill in the Grade 3 San Simeon last time out, after having won his only two prior tries competing on the downhill surface. Oliver's Tale was an easy victor last time out, and has won by over three lengths each time that he has charged down the hill.
Pure Tactics won last year's running of this event. County Lineman's late running style should suit him well here, though Trainer Cerin Vladimir's oh-for-thirty-four streak with last out winners is a concern. Bobby Z Man is on the ticket because I'm not going to use "ALL minus one" in any legs of a multi-race wager.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scatastic (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Mrazek (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Incredible Luck (ML 4-1)
# 9 Rickles (No Line) and # 10 Phantom Heat (NL) are program scratches. None of the Also Eligibles (# 11 Quorum of Joy (ML 8-1); # 12 Midvale Magic (ML 7-2); # 13 Small Town Shuffle (ML 8-1); # 14 Captain Akers (ML 8-1)) draw in.
These are all two year old first time starters. Scatastic is sired by Scat Daddy, whose progeny win more than their fair share at first asking. Scatastic's last two works over this main track were quite impressive.
Mrazek, trained by Doug O'Neill, is sired by Square Eddie, whose offspring win 12.5% of their debuts. Incredible Luck is trained by Dan Hendricks, who wins over 25% of the time with two year olds.
RACE 5 - Clm $8k N1Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 No Contingency (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 City Chapel (ML 5-2)
# 5 Traweek (ML 4-1)
# 8 Relentless Heat (ML 4-1)
C's
None
The conditions restrict this contest to those horses who are so far oh-for-2015. No Contingency has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three races. No Contingency projects to be the speed of the speed here.
City Chapel, our old friend, takes a huge step down the class ladder while making his first start for Trainer Richard Baltas. Traweek should rebound with a return to a dry track. Relentless Heat may improve with the turnback in distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P5: 1,3 with 4 with 1,2 with 4 with 3 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 4,6 with 1,2,5 with 2,4 with 1,3,5,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 1 with 1,2 with 4 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 4 with 3,4 with 4 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 4 with 1,2 with 3 with 3 $2.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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