5/17/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Congratulations to yesterday's Preakness winner American Pharoah, as well as to Trainer Bob Baffert and Jockey Victor Espinoza, who get another crack at thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown.  For those looking for my preview of yesterday's action don't bother, as there was no preview from me, as I decided to pass based upon the uncertainty of the Baltimore weather forecast (specifically as to exactly when the predicted torrential rains would begin).  But we're back in action again today as we take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Pepnic (Morning Line 12-1)
# 6 U S Citizen (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Forest Chatter (ML 9-5)
# 8 Horizontally Speaking (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Pepnic took the Show two of the last three times that he competed at this class level charging down the hill.  U S Citizen is getting some significant class relief here.  Forest Chatter, a perfect three-for-three in his career on the Santa Anita grass, takes the next step up the class ladder after winning clear charging down the hill against OC/N1X company.  

Horizontally Speaking was claimed for $62.5k last time out; which doesn't speak well for this barn, as this same horse could have been had for $50k not once but twice earlier this year.  The fact that Horizontally speaking is now being offered back for sale at the same price for which he was claimed is also far from reassuring.  But Horizontally Speaking has shown the ability to compete at this class level; and the fact that he's shown good early speed when routing on the flat turf course suggests that he may do well when charging down the hill.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Peacenik (ML 6-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Pepper Sweet (ML 4-1)

Peacenik takes a slight drop in class after being claimed for $10k last time out.  While it's not exactly inspiring to see the new barn run him for less than the amount they just paid for him, the Beyer Speed Figures that Peacenik has earned over his last three races standout as clearly better than that which the rest of the field has accomplished in that span.  If Peacenik should fail to fire today, our hope is that Pepper Sweet can swoop in late to pass the early speed that is entered in this contest.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 Something Unusual (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Labour (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Back to Bako (ML 15-1)
# 6 Tosheen (ML 5-1)

C's

None

Something Unusual took the Place two starts back against Alw N1X company charging down the hill.  Labour (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed in his native Argentina, and has been working a steady pattern here over the last several weeks.

Back to Bako may have needed that race back in March after having not competed since June 2014.  Tosheen took the Place against this class level charging down the hill two starts back, and may be the speed of the speed here today.

RACE 9 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Tossin Bullets (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellamy Concerto (ML 5-1)
# 7 Hook 'Em Kurt (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Mr. Pucci (ML 7-2)
# 11 Lamu (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Sleepwalker (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tossmeacutie (ML 20-1)

Bellamy Concerto and Hook 'Em Kurt are two of the three experienced runners in this contest; each has finished in the money at least once at this class level.  Tossin Bullets, sired by Lookin At Lucky, is one of two first time starters in this field going for Trainer Bob Baffert; Lamu, sired by Malibu Moon, is the other.

Mr. Pucci, also sired by Malibu Moon, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  Sleepwalker is sired by Graeme Hall, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their initial attempts.  Tossmeacutie makes his second career start after showing brief early speed in his debut.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 pick P4: 3,6 with 9 with 8 with 5,6,7 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 pick P4: 2,3,6,8 with 9 with 2,5,6,8 with 4,5,6,7,11 $40.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 pick P4: 3,6 with 2 with 8 with 5,6,7 $3.00

$0.50 pick P4: 3,6 with 9 with 8 with 3,8 $2.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo