6/28/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 5 Hi Fever (Final Odds 5.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Big John B (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Mothernaturespell (2.60) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Scuti de Patuti (5.50) - "C" Selection

Our day ended early when # 2 Take It Easyplease (3.90), one of our two "A" Selections in that contest, crossed the wire four and a half lengths behind the winner.  Of course, had the order of that race been reversed, it would have only set us up for the disappointment of having all the winners, but not all on the same ticket.  And a note to future self: runners going from state-bred non-claiming maiden races to open maiden claiming races are not to be under-estimated.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 2 / 7 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $237.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/28/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's closing day at Santa Anita, with racing not scheduled to return until September 25.  The Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano is on the card as Race 4; but unfortunately that won't be a part of the sequence that we'll be playing, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - [S] (F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Cattle Queen (Morning Line 7-2)
# 2 Take It Easyplease (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Only in the Movies (ML 12-1)

# 8 Gorgeous Georgia (ML 9-2)

# 6 Just Peachy (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Cattle Queen, one of several second time starters in this field, took the Show at this class level last time out.  Cattle Queen has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field, excepting Take It Easyplease, whose number was earned on turf rather than dirt.

As mentioned above, Take It Easyplease has earned the best Beyer Speed Figures in this field; but on the grass, rather than on dirt.  If she can carry her form over to the main track, then she will do well here.  Only in the Movies and Gorgeous Georgia are a pair of first time starters that merit consideration as none the experienced runners has yet earned a Beyer Speed Figure approaching par for this class level.

RACE 8 - Hcp 25000s - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Big John B (ML 5-2)

# 6 Salah Champ (ML 4-1)

B’s

None

# 9 Macho Sox (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

This contest is open in any runner which has started for a claiming price of $25k or less in 2014 or 2015.  Big John B prepped for his big run last Summer at Del Mar by first winning a similar contest on Santa Anita's closing day last year; a run that saw Big John B winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap.  The concern is that Big John B barely picked up his feet his last time out, so it's fair to wonder if his best days are now behind him.

Salah Champ, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has finished in the Exacta in ten of his eleven career tries on the turf; though this will be his first time competing on the Santa Anita course.  Expect Salah Champ to be forwardly placed early.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Sweet Silver (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Ill Tell You What (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Fab Four Ever (ML 10-1)

# 7 Mothernaturespell (ML 4-1)

# 6 Zanab (ML 5-1) has been scratched.

Sweet Silver takes a huge drop in class here, not just in price but in also going from open claimers to this contest limited to non-winners of two lifetime.  Sweet Silver also regains the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for her maiden score back in March.

Ill Tell You What took the Show against open $25k claimers two starts back.  Jockey Tyler Baze, who was on board in that race as well as the one in which Ill Tell You What graduated, gets the mount again today.  Fab Four Ever graduated last time out; Trainer Eddie Truman does a fine job of getting his last out winners to pose for the camera again.  Mothernaturespell, trained by Doug O'Neill, gets some class relief here.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Ya Ya Girl (ML 5-2)

# 13 Katy Drama (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Barbs Angel (ML 6-1)

C's

# 7 Canadian Exchange (ML 8-1)

# 8 Scuti de Patuti (ML 4-1)

# 9 Our Candy Charm (ML 15-1)

# 2 Dana's Delight (No Line) is a program scratch; but don't bring in # 14 Aylara (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligibles List, as she gets the afternoon off as well.

Ya Ya Girl has taken the Place twice against more expensive in her four race career; albeit both times while charging down the hill, rather than on the flats.  Katy Drama missed graduation by just a nose last time out against more expensive over this turf course at today's distance.  Barbs Angel, who competed against winners last time out on the downhill course, tries routing on the flat surface for the first time. 

Canadian Exchange, Scuti de Patuti, and Our Candy Charm are all making their first start on the flat turf course after having sprinted on the downhill course, and each of them should appreciate the stretch out in distance.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 2,6 with 3 with 12,13 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,8 with 2,6 with 3,4 with 5,12,13 $24.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 2,6 with 5,7 with 12,13 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 2,6 with 3 with 7,8,9 $6.00

Total: $46.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:14 EDT / 4:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/27/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Triple Bend - # 5 Masochistic (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Royal Heroine - # 7 Fanticola (4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Gold Cup at Santa Anita - # 2 Hard Aces (7.90) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 12 Contemplate (19.30) - No Selection

We had the Place horse in both Race 9 and Race 10, as # 6 Hoppertunity (2.90) and # 8 Diablo Caballero (4.40) were on the wrong end of photos in each of their respective races, losing by a combined margin of defeat less than the length of a typical television remote control.  But lose by an inch or lose by a mile a loss is still a loss, and the bottom line is that our horses were on the wrong side of the wire when the camera snapped its pictures.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 7 / 2 / 12  were rewarded with a payout of $1,516.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/27/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the final weekend for the super-sized greater than six month meet at The Great Race Place, and they're going out in style, with several Graded Stakes on the card.  The main event is The (formerly Hollywood) Gold Cup (now) at Santa Anita; it's Race 9 on the card, and therefore part of The Late Pick Four, at which we will be taking a run.

RACE 7 - The Triple Bend (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Sahara Sky (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Masochistic (ML 9-5)

B's

None

Will this contest be decided early or late?  Masochistic, winner of five of his last six starts, should be forwardly placed early, much as he was last time out while winning the Grade 2 Kona Gold.  But if things get too heated up front, then that could combine with the additional half furlong to allow Sahara Sky to make up the single length that separated him from Masochistic at the wire in the Kona Gold.

RACE 8 - (F) The Royal Heroine (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)

# 8 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Blingismything (ML 4-1)

# 4 Birdlover (GB) (ML 4-1)

# 7 Fanticola (ML 7-2)

# 5 Mangita (ML 30-1) has been scratched.

We're using more than half the field in this contest in one form or another, which is another way of saying that I think this one is pretty wide open.  As with Race 7, the question can be asked "Will this one be decided early or late?"  I'm betting this one is decided late, which is why Stormy Lucy and Queen of The Sand (Ire) are my "A" Selections.

Stormy Lucy is making her first start of 2015; and while Trainer Ed Moger doesn't have notable success with those returning from an extended vacation, I think the workout regime that Stormy Lucy has been going through (with several seven furlong jaunts) will have her ready to go today.  One thing for sure is that if Stormy Lucy is ready to roll then she should be the one running best late.

Queen of The Sand, winner of the Grade 2 Santa Barbara two starts back, turns back in distance to a mile without an "and" after it for the first time since last Fall.  Queen of the Sand has finished in the Trifecta in all her career attempts at today's distance, and, like Stormy Lucy, should be doing her best running late.

Blingismything, winner of the Grade 3 Wilshire on this turf course at today's distance two starts back, may have trouble getting a clean trip with the rail draw; for while she is quick, Blingismything is better served when she's in a "press and pounce" situation, rather than trying to be on the lead in the early going.  If Jockey Tyler Baze can chart a clear course through the field, then Blingismything may be the one getting her picture taken when this one is over.

If I'm wrong and this one is decided in the early going, then the winner will most likely be either Birdlover (GB) (ML 4-1) or Fanticola (ML 7-2).  Birdlover misses by just a couple of heads of entering this contest with a six race winning streak; and while the Past Performances seemingly indicate that Birdlover has Fanticola's number (which, incidentally, makes it odd that the Morning Line would have Fanticola as the Favorite), I think the margin of error between these two is close enough that if you're using one, then you really should use the other as well.

RACE 9 - The Gold Cup at Santa Anita (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Hoppertunity (ML 7-2)
# 8 Moreno (ML 7-2)

Catch a Flight (Arg), winner of the Grade 2 Californian last time out, looks like the one to beat here.  Catch a Flight appears to be in top form, and he has certainly shown an affinity for this main track.  Hoppertunity goes second off the layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert.  The last time Hoppertunity went second off the layoff he won the Grade 1 Clark.  

Moreno disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, as well as two starts prior to that.  While it's easy to dismiss Moreno as a horse who never seems to run to his full potential, it must be remembered that the last time Moreno and Catch a Flight each went a mile and a quarter was in The Big Cap, with Moreno hitting the wire first.  For that reason, Moreno is on our ticket today.

RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Prohibition Repeal (ML 8-1)
# 9 Conquest Dreamin (ML 8-1)

B's

# 6 Where Was Eddie (ML 7-2)
# 8 Diablo Caballero (ML 5-1)

# 1 Fritz Johansen (ML 6-1) has been scratched.  However, # 13 Ajac (ML 12-1) declines the invitation to join the party off the Also Eligibles List, so scratch him as well; and, instead, bring in # 14 Gemmabeto (ML 50-1).

Prohibition Repeal has shown good early speed when routing on the flat turf course; normally a sign that he'll do well charging down the hill.  Conquest Dreamin returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Mark Casse, who wins with approximately twenty percent of such.

Where Was Eddie is a first time starter sired by In Excess (Ire), whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts.  Diablo Caballero has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two starts, albeit on non-grass surfaces.  However Diablo Caballero did show good form in his two prior career tries charging down the hill.  

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 3,8 with 9 with 2,9 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 6,8,9 with 2,6,8,9 $60.00

Total: $68.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:20 EDT / 4:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/21/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 When We Met (Final Odds 1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Sweet (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Landaluce - # 6 Right There (5.70) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Ground Rules (14.30) - No Selection

We had an excellent first half in our Pick Four play; indeed, it was better than it looks above, as # 9 Emyvale Court, a late scratch from Race 7, was one of our "A" Selections in that contest, meaning that Sweet's victory in the second leg actually gave us two "A" Selections winners for that event.   But in the end it was all for naught, as we had no part of the only maiden competing in The Landaluce; and while we were proven correct to be skeptical of the odds-on favorite in the finale, none of the three runners that we used as backup picks were able to cross the wire first.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 6 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $277.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/21/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"A man never stands as tall as when he kneels to help a child" - The Knights of Pythagoras

Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there on this, the first day of Summer.  Hopefully today finds all of you enjoying yourselves doing that which you enjoy.  As for me, by the grace of The Almighty I'll be spending my time today doing that which I enjoy, which is taking a run at the Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $10k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 When We Met (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 6 My Jealous (ML 3-1)

# 7 Bluegrass Reward (ML 3-1) has been scratched.

When We Met won at this level at today's distance two starts back.  When We Met was claimed out of that race, but the claim was voided.  Last time out When We Met won again at today's distance, this time against more expensive.  It's fair to say that When We Met fits at this class level.

The last time My Jealous competed around two turns on a fast dirt track he took the Place in a listed stakes.  My Jealous was victorious in his two starts prior to that one, both of which were also around two turns on a fast dirt track.  It's reasonable to expect My Jealous to improve over his performance over his most recent two starts, neither of which were around two turns on a fast dirt track.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Sweet (ML 5-2)

# 4 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 9 Emyvale Court (ML 3-1)

B's

# 6 Artisticdifference (ML 5-1)

# 7 Pandura (ML 20-1)

Sweet took the Place last time out at this class level over this turf course at today's distance.  Foolish Ways (Ire) took the Show in each of her last two turf routes, both at this class level.  Emyvale Court, trained by Tom Proctor and ridden by Gary Stevens, took the Place in three of her four prior turf starts, all at this class level.  This will be Emyvale Court's first try on the flat turf course; her Tomlinson Rating for the distance suggests that she should handle it well.

Artisticdifference is a first time starter trained by Bob Hess Jr., who wins with over a quarter of such.  Pandura tries grass for the first time; his trainer, Dan Blacker, wins with thirty percent of such.

RACE 8 - (F) The Landaluce $125k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Miss Gridley (ML 5-2)

# 5 Alien Giant (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Star of Munster (ML 8-1)

# 7 Sambamzajammin (ML 3-1)

Miss Gridley and Alien Giants are the only to runners in this field to have graduated against open, rather than state-restricted, company.  Star of Munster, trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Mike Smith, has the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for today's distance.  Sambamzajammin has the second best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, behind only Miss Gridley.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Rosicky (ML 1-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Bellamy Concerto (ML 8-1)

# 5 Nob Hill (ML 8-1)

# 8 Volume (ML 4-1)

# 3 Feynman (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Rosicky looks to be as much of a standout as a winless horse can be.  Rosicky has taken the Place at this class level in each of his three prior career starts.  The Beyer Speed Figure that Rosicky earned last time out over this main track is at least nine points better than the career best Beyer Speed Figure of any other entrant in this field.

So why the spread?  Well, maybe Rosicky is camera shy; after all, he had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to get caught; so caution is advised.

Bellamy Concerto has twice hit the board at this class level, and could improve with the stretch out to two turns.  Nob Hill, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Victor Espinoza, has finished in the money in two of his last three races on this main track.  Volume has finished in the money in each of his last two races.

Worth noting: none of the ten entrants in this field (including the scratched Feynman) was ever the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior starts.  This includes several races where they had just missed graduating in their prior contest.  For example, Bellamy Concerto missed by a nose on February 22, but was still 5-2 in his next start.  Nob Hill missed by half a length on February 28, and left the gate at 9-1 in his next start.  Rosicky lost by just a neck in his debut, but was 5-2 at Post Time in his next start.  Volume missed by half a length on April 17, but was 7-1 when the bell rang in his next start.  I'm not sure what all that means, but it sure is interesting; all the more so because the public was right each time, as all these runners are still maidens (at least, for now).

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 7 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 3,4,6,7,9 with 1,2,5,7 with 7 $20.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 4,5,8 $9.00

Total: $35.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/20/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 6 George's Main Man (Final Odds 6.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Singletary - # 6 Soul Driver (3.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Summertime Oaks - # 9 Stellar Wind (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Los Gatos (6.00) - No Selection

Not a good day for the home team, as we completely whiff on three of the four legs, catching only the odds-on Favorite that everybody else had.  But, as we often say 'cos it's always true, miss one or miss 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line as you've gotta catch all four in order to cash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  6 / 6 / 9 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $233.10 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/20/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Saturday is the last full day of Spring, so it seems an appropriate time for Santa Anita to run the Grade 2 Summertime (nee Hollywood) Oaks.  The contest is the featured eighth race on the card, so we'll be taking a look at it as we take a run at Saturday's Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Molten Image (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Takem by Surprise (ML 5-1)
# 10 Price of Glory (ML 8-1)

# 9 Outthink'em (No Line) is a program scratch.

Molten Image was vanned off the last time he competed back in April; but he's worked fine since then, and had been able to take the Place twice at this class level.  Takem by Surprise certainly has the talent to win at this class level, as he's hit the board on multiple occasions at this level of competition; so now it's just a question of does Takem by Surprise want to win.  Price of Glory takes a huge drop down the class ladder, going from open $20k claimers to this N2L contest.  It's also worth noting that Price of Glory was able to make the lead against those more expensive runners, making it quite possible that Price of Glory will be able to get loose on the lead against this group.

RACE 7 - The Singletary $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Harmonic (ML 8-1)
# 13 Royal Albert Hall (GB) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Seve's Road (ML 8-1)

# 10 Anytime Anyplace (NL) is a program scratch, which allows Royal Albert Hall (GB) to draw in off the Also Eligibles List.

Harmonic, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has yet to finish out of the money in three turf tries.  Royal Albert Hall (GB) turned in a couple of fine efforts over this turf course back in May.  Royal Albert Hall should also appreciate the turn back in distance from his last contest.  Seve's Road could be over-matched in his first try against winners; but Seve's Road is trained by Phil D'Amato, who's been winning everything else this meet; so on the ticket he goes.

RACE 8 - (F) The Summertime Oaks (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Stellar Wind (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Tara's Tango (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Sheer Pleasure (ML 4-1)

# 10 Fantastic Style (NL) is a program scratch.  # 1 All-Star Bub (ML 20-1) # 3 Danette (ML 15-1) and # 4 Guild (ML 30-1) are also scratched.

Stellar Wind is the clear class of this field, the only runner with multiple Graded Stakes wins.  Tara's Tango, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has taken the Place in the two listed stakes in which she's competed this year, and could improve with the stretch out to two turns.  Sheer Pleasure, trained by Phil D'Amato, takes a big leap up the class ladder in this, her first try against non-state restricted company.  But Sheer Pleasure has been showing steady improvement in each of her races, and proved in her last event that today's distance is right in her wheelhouse.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Shanty Irish (ML 10-1)

# 2 Over Par (ML 7-2)

# 11 Unusualy (ML 8-1)

B's

# 5 Fly Over (ML 15-1)

# 12 Gigantis (ML 12-1)

#13 Noble Hawk (ML 8-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligibles List.

Shanty Irish goes back to competing without blinkers, as they were of no help to him in his last contest.  Over Par, trained by Doug O'Neill, returns to the non-winners ranks after trying stakes competition his last time out.  Unusualy took the Show at this class level two starts back, albeit while charging down the hill.

Fly Over is a first time starter trained by Donald Warren, who wins with approximately a quarter of such.  Gigantis should show much improvement with the switch from dirt to turf.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 3,13 with 9 with 1,2,11 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,10 with 1,3,13 with 6,9 with 1,2,5,11,12 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,13 with 2 with 1,2,11 $3.00

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/14/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 5 - # 2 Lucky Oracle (Final Odds 2.80) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Summer Wine (2.50) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Onemoreatwilsons (2.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Rosary Man (1.80*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Charlotte R (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Cara Kavia (37.40) - No Selection

Our day ended early as we chose the wrong first time starter to make a "B" Selection in Race 6, as we went instead with # 4 Seattls Cutie (30.70) who finished next to last.  Of course choosing correctly in that leg would have only set us up for later disappointment; as our "A" Selection and "B" Selection in Race 8, # 1 Prospector's Trick (3.50) and # 12 Cajun Black (5.00), respectively, were the losers in a three way photo to Rosary Man, as all three crossed the wire just noses apart.  As for the finale, 20-20 hindsight shows that if you liked # 5 Curly Boy (6.10), who took the Show, then you really should have also liked the winner, who has now beaten Curley Boy three times over the past ten months.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of  2 / 6 / 2 / 5 / 8 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $43,892.98 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/14/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

"I believe our flag is more than just cloth and ink. It is a universally recognized symbol that stands for liberty, and freedom. It is the history of our nation, and it's marked by the blood of those who died defending it." - John Thune

Today marks the end of the current meet at Golden Gate Fields, and that means that there'll be a mandatory payout of the Golden Pick Six Jackpot, which is currently in excess of $117k.  So with that as incentive, let's take yet another run at The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six. 

RACE 5 - Md $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Houdini Hill (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Dench (ML 8-5)
# 2 Lucky Oracle (ML 9-2)
# 5 Heaveneleven (ML 5-1)

C's

None

Two starts back Houdini Hill took the Show against much more expensive over this main track at today's distance.  Houdini Hill was claimed for $20k out of his last race, a turf event where he had a rather rough go of it.  This will be Houdini Hill's first start off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who wins with approximately 19% of such.  

Dench and Heaveneleven took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest at this class level last time out.  Lucky Oracle is a filly taking on the boys; if she can duplicate her final time from her last race, she just may be the one getting her picture taken today.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Azia Brown (ML 5-2)

# 8 Elle Woods Too (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Seattls Cutie (ML 10-1)

C's

# 6 Summer Wine (ML 3-1)

# 12 Sister Hubert (ML 15-1)

# 1 Ain't She Pretty (No Line), # 7 Kitty's Karma (NL), and # 11 Ingenious (NL) are all program scratches.

Azia Brown missed graduating by just a neck in her only prior turf try, which was at today's distance at this class level.  Elle Woods Too has finished in the money in each of her prior turf tries.  Seattls Cutie is a first time starter sired by Downtown Seattle, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts.

Summer Wine is a first time starter sired by Lucky Pulpit, whose debuting offspring win approximately 13% of their attempts.  Sister Hubert could be the one running best late if Azia Brown and Elle Woods Too duel each other into the ground before they reach the wire.

RACE 7 - Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Doc West (ML 2-1)

# 2 Onemoreatwilsons (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Nae'ole (ML 12-1)

# 6 Duma Council (ML 7-2)

# 8 One Brite Day (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Mr River of Dreams (ML 30-1)

# 4 Copmanhurst (ML 30-1)

# 7 Kentucky King (ML 20-1)

I thought this race in the sequence had the greatest probability of devolving into chaos; for that reason, I'm using every entrant in the field on my tickets in one form or another.

Doc West returns to action after an extended vacation; Trainer Cliff Delima does very well with such (albeit in a rather small sample size).  Onemoreatwilsons is returning to competition after an even longer layoff than Doc West; but Onemoreatwilsons has been working well over this main track.

Nae'ole took the Show at this class level last time out.  Duma Council adds blinkers for his second career start.  One Brite Day drops in class, adds blinkers, and gets the services of Jockey Russell Baze.  The concern with One Brite Day is that he didn't show much in his only work over this main track, and this will be his first start on a synthetic surface.  

Copmanhurst is making his debut at the ripe old age of seven; and he's not a gelding.  The fact that Copmanhurst's connections have been determined enough to get him to the starting gate must count for something.  

Kentucky King showed good early speed two starts back and is now making his third start off the layoff.  Mr River of Dreams is on the ticket because every other entrant in this field is, and you should never use the "ALL but one" button.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Prospector's Trick (ML 4-1)

B's

# 12 Cajun Black (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 The Gray Hound (ML 8-1)

# 5 Rosary Man (ML 7-2)

# 10 Trifecta (ML 6-1)

# 13 Zorrito (ML 15-1) does not draw in from the Also Eligibles list and gets to hang out in the barn.

Prospector's Trick ships in from Santa Anita, where he's been finishing in the money five of his last six starts, all against open $25k claimers.  Prospector's Trick has a late running style that should suit him well in this field filled with early speed.  Cajun Black took the Place at this class level last time out.

The Gray Hound and Trifecta are a pair of late runners that could swoop in at the wire to get the big prize.  Rosary Man, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, has been running well enough against Optional Claiming company that the move to a straight Allowance field should not be a problem; but Rosary Man looks like a need to lead type, and I'm not sure that he can get that early lead today.  

RACE 9 - Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Latin's Watch (ML 7-2)

B's

# 8 Charlotte R (ML 5-2)

C's

# 5 Turko Gulch (ML 6-1)

# 9 St. Somewhere (ML 3-1)

# 6 Speeding Prospect (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Latin's Watch has the best last out and the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, by a bunch.  Charlotte R, trying two turns for the first time, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.

Turko Gulch is a first time starter trained by Steve Sherman, who wins with approximately 16% of such.  St. Somewhere drops in class while adding blinkers.

RACE 10 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Yomybato (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 First Strike (ML 6-1)

# 5 Curly Boy (ML 10-1)

# 7 Bomb Site (ML 4-1)

# 9 Cant Do the Danse (ML 3-1)

Yomybato, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, took the Show last time out over this turf course at today's distance against much more expensive.  Curly Boy won at this class level over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.

First Strike goes third off the layoff for Trainer Victor Trujillo.  Bomb Site has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Cant Do the Danse has finished in the money five of the seven times that he has competed on this turf course.  Cant Do the Danse could be the quickest in this field, and may have things all to himself in the early going.

OK, that's the analysis.  Since today's a mandatory payout, there's no reason to play for a single winning ticket; therefore we'll just go with our usual Crist method.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 8 $0.80

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,5,6 with 4,5,8 with 1,2,5,6,8 with 1,12 with 3,8 with 8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 6 with 6,12 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 8 $0.80

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 3,4,7 with 1 with 3 with 8 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 2,5,10 with 3 with 8 $2.40

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 5,9 with 8 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 2,5,7,9 $3.20

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:51 EDT / 2:51 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/13/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 7 My Slew (Final Odds 2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Fueled by Bourbon (12.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Adoration - # 4 Beholder (0.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Big Move (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Since we also had # 4 Somethings Unusual (6.60), the horse that crossed the wire first in Race 7 but was DQ'd, we were covered regardless of what the stewards decided; but since their take down of Somethings Unusual gave us a better payout, we have to grudgingly accept that sometimes these things do go our way.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Unusual Storm (9.30) - $422.75 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Dixie Tweet (9.40) - $259.35 Finish: 6th
# 3 Lily Kai (7.00) - $360.30 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  The actual winning Pick Four sequence of  7 / 5 / 4 / 7  paid $79.55 for a fifty cent wager.  Which, granted, isn't much; indeed, it's not quite even money on our initial $46 investment.  But it's much more than we would have collected had we just put the whole amount on Beholder to Win; and it sure as heck is more than we would have collected had we lost.  Besides, as my close personal friend Sully likes to say, nobody ever went broke cashing tickets. 

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/13/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

American Pharoah, the newly crowned king of horse racing, is scheduled to parade before his subjects at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening.  But while the Triple Crown events have ended, great thoroughbred racing continues; so let us turn our attention to The Great Race Place, and take a run at today's Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Relentless Heat (Morning Line 4-1)
# 7 My Slew (ML 5-2)
# 9 Coolington (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 8 Dekko (Arg) (ML 8-1)

Relentless Heat moves back up in class to open claimers after taking the Place against N1Y company; but Relentless Heat has been earning steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over his last five races, and is co-holder of the title of best last out Beyer in this field.

My Slew would have crushed this field last year, when he was regularly hitting the board and winning against much more expensive stock.  But when My Slew cam back to the track this year after a greater than four month absence he obviously wasn't the same horse; and his connections at the time knew it, allowing him to be claimed by his current barn for just $16k.  Well, now just two months later My Slew is running with a price tag of just half that $16k; and while he is a solid contender here, it is sad to see that My Slew is reaching the end of the line.

Coolington defeated slightly more expensive stock last time out, and even more expensive two starts prior to that one.  Apparently Trainer Peter Miller is determined to keep dropping this horse in price until he is claimed, and Miller is more than happy to keep accumulating victories in the process.

Dekko (Arg) won clear at this class level last time out over this main track.  But that was a year and a day ago; and Dekko's workouts leading up to this event have been, shall we say, intriguing.  After the work of April 10 Dekko's public works skip a week, with Dekko then earning a bullet at six furlongs over at San Luis Rey on April 25.  Dekko then worked again the next week, but after that May 2 workout four weeks pass before he's back on the San Luis Rey track again.  Needless to say, those gaps are not encouraging.  But then Dekko throws up a four furlong 46.4 for a bullet at SLR on June 2.  So is Dekko ready to compete today?  The gaps say no; that bullet on 6/2 says yes.  My gut says that he needs a race; but we know that Dekko can win at this level, so on the ticket he goes.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 Brave Act (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 Somethings Unusual (ML 4-1)
# 5 Fueled by Bourbon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 9-2)
# 7 Labour (Arg) (ML 3-1)

The conditions limit this contest to runners which:

1) Have never won $10k other than maiden, claiming, or starter; OR
2) Have never won two races; OR
3) Will run for a claiming price of $40k.

For the record, none of the runners here are running with the $40k price tag on their heads, so all fit either (or both) of conditions 1 & 2 above.

Brave Act moves up in class after defeating state bred company last time out charging down the hill.  Trainer Eddie Truman is having a great meet, and does a fine job of placing his last out winners.

Labour (Arg) and Somethings Unusual took the Place and Show, respectively, last time out in the same event charging down the hill at this approximate class level.  Eddie's First was a clear winner charging down the hill two starts back, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that puts him in with the contenders today.

Fueled by Bourbon graduated charging down the hill last time out; and while Trainer Dan Blocker does not succeed all that often with his last out winners, Fueled by Bourbon's final time in that maiden victory looks quite impressive at this class level.

RACE 8 - (F) The Adoration (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Beholder (ML 2-5)

B's

None

# 3 Cast in Silver (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Beholder, winner of nine-out-of-ten over this main track, is the clear class of this field.  I consider Beholder to be a standout in this field; and while she may lose, I think the probability of that happening is low enough that there's no real percentage in trying to beat her today.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Dixie Tweet (ML 4-1)
# 7 Big Move (ML 9-5)

B's

# 1 Unusual Storm (ML 10-1)

# 3 Lily Kai (ML 10-1)

Dixie Tweet, competing on the downhill course for the first time, has show good early speed in her races on the flats, which is often a sign that she will do well charging down the hill.  Big Move missed graduating by just a head charging down the hill at this class level last time out.  Unusual Storm and Lily Kai, both sired by Unusual Heat, are making their second career starts, and both look to improve off their respective debut efforts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,7,9 with 8 with 4 with 2,7 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,9 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 4 with 1,2,3,7 $40.00

Total: $46.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/6/15 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Just A Game - # 9 Tepin (Final Odds 4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 9 Honor Code (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 7 Slumber (GB) - (14.10) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes - # 5 American Pharoah (0.75*) - "A" Selection

We totally whiffed on The Manhattan, as we not only had no part of Slumber (GB) winning his first race in almost two years, we also failed to get either of our two "A" Selections to finish in the money.

Oh well; onto the next race.

But enough about us.  The big story on the day, of course, is American Pharoah.  Congrats to him, Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey Victor Espinoza, and the Zayat family.  I'm happy for them; but I'm even happier for all those horse racing fans too young to remember the last Triple Crown winner, who now have their own memories of having witnessed this remarkable achievement.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 9 / 7 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $1,148.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/6/15 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview

This is it; the big day where American Pharoah makes history, either by winning The Triple Crown or by joining the long list of horses who won The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness only to come up short in The Belmont Stakes.  NYRA has put together an excellent card for the occasion, with enough Graded Stakes to rival a Breeders' Cup Day.  There are three Pick Fours on the menu at Belmont Park today; we'll be taking our shot at the one in the middle, The All-Grade 1 Pick Four.

RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 8 Ball Dancing (Morning Line 3-1)
# 9 Tepin (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Coffee Clique (ML 7-2)
# 6 Filimbi (ML 6-1)

C’s

None

Ball Dancing, winner of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last time out, has yet to finish out of the Exacta since coming to North America and joining the Chad Brown barn.  Tepin made a big move forward last time out in winning the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, and should build on that success in her third start of 2015.

Coffee Clique has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two races; but the fact that she won last year's running of this event gives her a spot on our ticket.  Filimbi, second behind Ball Dancing in the Jenny Wiley, could turn the tables today with the turn back in distance.

RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Tonalist (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Private Zone (ML 4-1)

# 5 Tamarkuz (ML 10-1)

# 9 Honor Code (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 7 Bayern (ML 7-2)

Tonalist is on his home court, where he is a perfect four-for-four lifetime.  Tonalist has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and should get a nice setup sitting off the pace.  Private Zone draws the rail, and he could be the speed of the speed in this contest.

Tamakuz, winner of the Group 2 Godolphin Mile last time out, misses by less than a length of being a perfect five-for-five on real dirt tracks.  Honor Code finished out of the money in the Grade 2 Alysheba last time out, but Honor Code should get a much hotter pace to close into today than he got in the Alysheba, which saw the opening half run in 48.56.

It seems pretty clear that Bayern needs the lead to win; and with Private Zone drawn to his inside, and without a stablemate to impede the other front runners for him out of the gate, I don't see Bayern getting that early lead today.  But Bayern has managed to win Graded Stakes in the past where the odds were against him, and maybe he can be a part of what could be a really big day for Trainer Bob Baffert; so on the ticket he goes.

RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A’s

# 2 Twilight Eclipse (ML 7-2)

# 3 Finnegans Wake (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 4 War Dancer (ML 5-1)

# 9 Magic Artist (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Twilight Eclipse hasn't exactly thrived since losing Main Sequence as a rival; but Twilight Eclipse did win the Grade 1 Man o' War last time out over this turf course, crossing the wire a neck in front of War Dancer.  Main Sequence draws inside of War Dancer today, which should give him an added edge.  It also remains to be seen if War Dancer can put together back-to-back solid efforts.

Finnegans Wake, winner of four of his last five starts (all Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests) looks to be in top form; but there may not be enough early speed here for Finnegans Wake to get his preferred setup.  Magic Artist (Ire) is on the ticket because the final time of 1:59.2 his last time out in a Group 1 event in Italy (which he lost by a neck) is too good to totally ignore.

RACE 11 - The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 American Pharoah (ML 3-5)

# 8 Materiality (ML 6-1)

B's

# 6 Frosted (ML 5-1)

C’s

None

American Pharoah is facing seven opponents in this contest, and he's beaten all seven at one time or another.  But like with so many Derby and Preakness winners from Spectacular Bid to California Chrome, it's not enough to be the best in the field; he has to be at his absolute best today in order to win the Triple Crown.

Materiality was my Kentucky Derby pick, and the trip he got last month just left me wondering what might have been.  Perhaps today we'll find out.  Frosted is the only other runner in this field besides American Pharoah and Materiality to have at least one triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure on his resume.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 4 with 2,3 with 5,8 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,8,9 with 1,4,5,9 with 2,3 with 5,6,8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 5,8 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 4 with 4,9 with 5,8 $4.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/5/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 10 Arghad (Final Odds 18.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - The True North - # 8 Rock Fail (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The New York - # 4 Waltzing Matilda (22.70) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup - # 2 Innovation Economy (2.50) - "B" Selection

We lost the photo in the opening leg, as "A" Selection # 1 Lookaroundcorners (0.80*) was a nose too slow in hitting the wire; and # 1 Kitten's Queen (0.35*), part of the entry that comprised our "A" Selection in The New York, couldn't last 'til the wire and had to settle for the Show, three quarters of a length behind the winner.  Add them together and it's less than a length; but some days that all it takes to turn tickets into trash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  10 / 8 / 4 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $3,461.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/5/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Belmont Stakes Eve, and the good people at NYRA have put together a fine card, with five stakes on the ten race slate.  As for us, we're be following our established modus operandi and taking a run at today's Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 1 Lookaroundcorners (Morning Line 3-1)
# 13 Tiz Time to Shake (ML 15-1)
# 14 Amigo (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Private Relations (ML 8-1)
# 8 The Catmancan (ML 12-1)

C's

None

# 11 Seeking Alpha (ML 7-2) and # 12 Reverend Green (ML 10-1) are Vet scratches; so they come out too late to allow # 15 Bubba's d'Oro (ML 50-1) to draw in from the Also Eligibles List.  # 16 Rare Eagle (ML 5-2), entered for the main track only, also gets to stay in the barn this afternoon.

Lookaroundcorners crossed the wire first in his debut last time out on the Keeneland grass, but was disqualified for knocking several of his opponents out of his way.  No reason why Lookaroundcorners can't cross the wire first again today, but without the rough house tactics.

Tiz Time to Shake took the Place in his first try on the grass last time out.  Amigo has already had a dozen unsuccessful tries at graduating; certainly not a good sign.  But only three of those twelve were turf routes, and in those three he took the Place twice.

Private Relations took the Place at this class level three starts back.  The Catmancan took the Show at this class level last time out; though he may need more distance than just eight furlongs.

RACE 8 - The True North (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Dads Caps (ML 4-1)
# 8 Rock Fall (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Stallwalkin' Dude (ML 5-1)
# 6 Eastwood (ML 10-1)

C's

None

# 3 Captain Serious (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Dads Cap took the Grade 1 Carter Handicap last time out, the second year in a row that he's won that event.  Rock Fall, trained by Todd Pletcher, has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Stallwalkin' Dude has won five of his last six contests.  Eastwood is the "other" Pletcher in this field, and misses by less than a length of being undefeated with Jockey Johnny Velazquez on his back.

RACE 9 - (F) The New York (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 1 Kitten's Queen / # 1A Stephanie's Kitten (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Riposte (GB) (ML 6-1)

Stephanie's Kitten is the clear class of this field, and her win last time out in the Grade 3 Hillsborough suggests that she's in fine form.  Riposte (GB) won this event last year; an angle to which I tend to be partial.  Riposte should also benefit from this turn back in distance from her last time out.

RACE 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup $250k - Sixteen Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 3 Unitarian (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Innovation Economy (ML 5-1)
# 5 Red Rifle (ML 7-2)
# 6 Artic North (ML 15-1)
# 8 Morning Calm (ML 10-1)

C's

None

# 7 Diplomat (ML 20-1) is a Vet scratch.

Unitarian won the $75k Allen Jerkens at today's distance two starts back.  Innovation Economy, a clear winner of an N2X Allowance last time out at twelve furlongs, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.

Red Rifle, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny Velazquez, has finished in the Exacta four of the five times that he's tried the grass.  Artic North took the Place behind Unitarian in the Allen Jerkens; perhaps he makes up those three and a half lengths today.  Morning Calm, ridden by Mike Smith, looks like a solid candidate to be running well late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,13,14 with 5,8 with 1 with 3 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,8,13,14 with 2,5,6,8 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,8 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,13,14 with 5,8 with 7 with 3 $3.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/3/15 Woodbine Pick Four - Results

Race 4 - # 6 Irish Gem (Final Odds 7.95) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Miss Victoria (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 1 Probably (4.45) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Devil's Bayou (16.30) - No Selection

It looked like we were on our way to cashing, as "B" Selection # 8 Winstanley (Ire) (1.85) was comfortably in front in the finale by multiple lengths heading towards the finish line; unfortunately, Winstanley came up lame before the wire, allowing Devil's Bayou to blow past him in the final strides and turn our tickets into trash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the twenty cent Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in Race 7:

# 2 Lateral Hazard (1.25*) - $69.37 Finish: 4th
# 4 Executiveguts (45.30) - $900.68 Finish: 6th
# 6 Flatter the Ladies (4.30) - $134.65 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Winstanley (Ire) (1.85) - $75.30 Finish: 2nd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 1 / 5 .  Those who had it were rewarded with a $446.14 payout for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/3/15 Woodbine Pick Four - Preview

They held the draw for the Belmont Stakes today, and all connections seemed to come away satisfied; at least, there were no further defections.  Meanwhile, I found myself with some free time today, so I set my sights north of the border and decided to take a run at Woodbine's $100k Guaranteed Pick Four.

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $10k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1A Declansnumberone (Morning Line 8-5)
# 3 Gladys's Ring (ML 15-1)

B’s

# 2 La Nena Del Valle / # 2B Madeline Jennings (ML 4-1)

# 6 Irish Gem (ML 10-1)

# 1 Awesome Secret (ML 8-5) has been scratched.

Declansnumberone took the Place against more expensive two starts back at today's distance.  

Gladys's Ring raced above her paygrade last time out, taking on N3L company.  Gladys's Ring is returning after a near six month layoff; note that Trainer Josie Carroll wins with over twenty percent of such, and note also the bullet work over this main track on 5/25.

Irish Gem last time out and Madeline Jennings two starts back each earned Beyer Speed Figures that fit in well with the contenders in this field.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $8k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Be Mind Phil (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Mindfulness (ML 6-1)

# 7 Miss Victoria (ML 3-1)

# 3 Two Brews to Go (ML 2-1) has been scratched.

Be Mind Phil took the Place against more expensive last time out.  Mindfulness was just a length behind Miss Victoria as those two filled out the Exactor last time out at today's distance.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $10k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Crafty Gizmo (ML 6-5)

B’s

# 1 Probably (ML 3-1)

# 7 D'forest Diva (ML 4-1)

Crafty Gizmo won for the second time in four career starts last time out against state bred Allowance company, earning this field's best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  The concern with Crafty Gizmo is that she has followed each Win or near-Win with an out of the money finish.

Probably has finished in the Exactor is all three of her races on synthetic surfaces.  D'forest Diva is undefeated thus far in 2015; perhaps the light bulb went on after having been oh-for-seven in her career prior to this year.

RACE 7 - Md $32k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Lateral Hazard (ML 8-5)

# 4 Executiveguts (ML 30-1)

# 6 Flatter the Ladies (ML 6-1)

B's

# 8 Winstanley (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 1 Got  Connections (ML 3-1) and # 3 Soul n' Spirit (ML 20-1) have been scratched.

Lateral Hazard took the Show against non-claiming Maidens in his debut last time out.  Executiveguts could be the lone speed here; and while that doesn't mean as much on synthetics as it does on dirt, it's not nothing.  Flatter the Ladies drops in for a tag for the first time in his career.  Winstanley (Ire) earned a Beyer Speed Figure the last time he sprinted that could get the job done today if repeated.  

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P4: 1,3 with 2 with 3 with 2,4,6 $1.20

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,6 with 2,6,7 with 1,3,7 with 2,4,6,8 $28.80

Total: $30.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 8:15 EDT / 5:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo