"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon
We're almost there! Just a few more days until the biggest race of the year. So you all know what that means, right? Yup; as I promised in my very first post, this blog will now go dark.
Well, maybe not totally dark. I downloaded the Google blogger app, so if I can get it to work properly, I will take time prior to Saturday's big race to let you know my selection. I doubt if there'll be a lengthy analysis attached; in fact, odds are there won't be any analysis attached; but at least you'll know where the bulk of my money is going.
At this time (now that Code West is officially out) the only horse I have any rooting interest in is Golden Cents; and that only because I think it would be incredibly cool if a horse I touted right after his debut would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. But sentiment aside, here're the things I'll be looking for in my Derby selection:
BREEDING: Can he go the ten furlongs? Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest. Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) . And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.
BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them. Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.
POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two. Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.
TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races! In fact, watch Friday's races as well. If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.
FINALLY - ENJOY! This is the biggest race of the year. Take in all the excitement, and be sure to have some fun; 'cos, like Christmas, it only comes but once a year.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update
Here's something to consider as you pore over your Kentucky Derby Past Performances: how long did it typically take for prior winners of the Derby to break their maidens?
The chart below is pretty basic: Year / Kentucky Derby Winner / Number of tries needed to obtain their first career victory. A "1" means that they broke their maiden in their debut; a "2" means that they got their first career win in their second career race; and so on.
2012 - I'll Have Another - 1
2011 - Animal Kingdom - 2
2010 - Super Saver - 2
2009 - Mine That Bird - 2
2008 - Big Brown - 1
2007 - Street Sense - 2
2006 - Barbaro - 1
2005 - Giacomo - 2
2004 - Smarty Jones - 1
2003 - Funny Cide - 1
2002 - War Emblem - 1
2001 - Monarchos - 3
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 2
1999 - Charismatic - 6
1998 - Real Quiet - 7
1997 - Silver Charm - 2
1996 - Grindstone - 1
1995 - Thunder Gulch - 2
1994 - Go For Gin - 3
1993 - Sea Hero - 4
1992 - Lil E. Tee - 2
1991 - Strike the Gold - 3
1990 - Unbridled - 1
1989 - Sunday Silence - 2
1988 - Winning Colors - 1
1987 - Alysheba - 3
1986 - Ferdinand - 4
1985 - Spend a Buck - 1
1984 - Swale - 2
1983 - Sunny's Halo - 1
Debut Winners - 11
Second Attempt - 11
Third Try - 4
Fourth Attempt - 2
Sixth Attempt - 1
Seventh Attempt - 1
Twenty-two of the last thirty Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden in either their debut or their second career race, with an even split of eleven horses falling into each category. Four others needed three tries to garner their first victory, and another pair needed four attempts to get off the schneid. Charismatic made five fruitless attempts at winning before taking the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in his sixth career start in order to get his first victory; while Real Quiet didn't make it to the Winner's Circle until his seventh career race (though two of those seven races were competitions against winners, rather than fellow maidens).
So while not a hard and fast rule, it seems clear that the Run for the Roses is usually won by a horse that figures out early that the goal is to finish ahead of the pack; not with the pack. On the other hand, the two horses in the above list who took the longest to break their maidens are also two that would go on to win the Preakness and come tantalizingly close to being Triple Crown winners.
So make of the above what you will; and, as always, if you think you see an error in my work, please let me know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The chart below is pretty basic: Year / Kentucky Derby Winner / Number of tries needed to obtain their first career victory. A "1" means that they broke their maiden in their debut; a "2" means that they got their first career win in their second career race; and so on.
2012 - I'll Have Another - 1
2011 - Animal Kingdom - 2
2010 - Super Saver - 2
2009 - Mine That Bird - 2
2008 - Big Brown - 1
2007 - Street Sense - 2
2006 - Barbaro - 1
2005 - Giacomo - 2
2004 - Smarty Jones - 1
2003 - Funny Cide - 1
2002 - War Emblem - 1
2001 - Monarchos - 3
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 2
1999 - Charismatic - 6
1998 - Real Quiet - 7
1997 - Silver Charm - 2
1996 - Grindstone - 1
1995 - Thunder Gulch - 2
1994 - Go For Gin - 3
1993 - Sea Hero - 4
1992 - Lil E. Tee - 2
1991 - Strike the Gold - 3
1990 - Unbridled - 1
1989 - Sunday Silence - 2
1988 - Winning Colors - 1
1987 - Alysheba - 3
1986 - Ferdinand - 4
1985 - Spend a Buck - 1
1984 - Swale - 2
1983 - Sunny's Halo - 1
Debut Winners - 11
Second Attempt - 11
Third Try - 4
Fourth Attempt - 2
Sixth Attempt - 1
Seventh Attempt - 1
Twenty-two of the last thirty Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden in either their debut or their second career race, with an even split of eleven horses falling into each category. Four others needed three tries to garner their first victory, and another pair needed four attempts to get off the schneid. Charismatic made five fruitless attempts at winning before taking the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in his sixth career start in order to get his first victory; while Real Quiet didn't make it to the Winner's Circle until his seventh career race (though two of those seven races were competitions against winners, rather than fellow maidens).
So while not a hard and fast rule, it seems clear that the Run for the Roses is usually won by a horse that figures out early that the goal is to finish ahead of the pack; not with the pack. On the other hand, the two horses in the above list who took the longest to break their maidens are also two that would go on to win the Preakness and come tantalizingly close to being Triple Crown winners.
So make of the above what you will; and, as always, if you think you see an error in my work, please let me know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/27/13 Churchill Down Races 9 & 10 - Results
Thanks be to The Almighty, and to Jockey Joel Rosario, our Double play comes through and our bottom line goes up.
Race 9 at Churchill Downs Saturday night saw # 3 Horned Frog (Final Odds 0.70) gain, then lose, then re-gain the lead in the stretch, battling with # 8 Biker Boy (3.60) right down to the wire before sticking a head in front and winning by a neck. Race 10 featured another photo finish, as # 4 Forty Tales (3.10) came on from being sixth (seven lengths back) at the half to grab the lead near the wire and then just hold on to win by a neck over # 6 Capo Bastone (4.90) who had come from even further back, having been in eighth place (seventeen and a half lengths back) at the half.
So it was Rosario in the first half of the Double followed by Rosario in the second half of the Double, which made for a $14.80 payout for every two dollars wagered. Since we had it for five bucks on our ticket, we cashed out for $37.00, making for a $19.00 profit off our initial $18.00 investment. Not exactly what I would call a score, but rest assured you will never see me turn my nose up at profit. Besides, as my close personal friend J L Sullivan likes to say, "No one ever went broke cashing tickets."
I hope you all had it with me.
Incidentally, Joel Rosario also rode the winner in the race immediately before and in the race immediately after the Double that we played, thus making for an all-Rosario Pick Four. Those who were sharp enough to play the winning sequence of 6 / 3 / 4 / 11 in the late Pick Four were rewarded with a payout of $36.25 for a fifty cent wager.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 at Churchill Downs Saturday night saw # 3 Horned Frog (Final Odds 0.70) gain, then lose, then re-gain the lead in the stretch, battling with # 8 Biker Boy (3.60) right down to the wire before sticking a head in front and winning by a neck. Race 10 featured another photo finish, as # 4 Forty Tales (3.10) came on from being sixth (seven lengths back) at the half to grab the lead near the wire and then just hold on to win by a neck over # 6 Capo Bastone (4.90) who had come from even further back, having been in eighth place (seventeen and a half lengths back) at the half.
So it was Rosario in the first half of the Double followed by Rosario in the second half of the Double, which made for a $14.80 payout for every two dollars wagered. Since we had it for five bucks on our ticket, we cashed out for $37.00, making for a $19.00 profit off our initial $18.00 investment. Not exactly what I would call a score, but rest assured you will never see me turn my nose up at profit. Besides, as my close personal friend J L Sullivan likes to say, "No one ever went broke cashing tickets."
I hope you all had it with me.
Incidentally, Joel Rosario also rode the winner in the race immediately before and in the race immediately after the Double that we played, thus making for an all-Rosario Pick Four. Those who were sharp enough to play the winning sequence of 6 / 3 / 4 / 11 in the late Pick Four were rewarded with a payout of $36.25 for a fifty cent wager.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 27, 2013
4/27/13 Churchill Down Races 9 & 10 - Preview
As I type this the track is fast and the turf is good for Churchill Downs on Opening Night; but the forecast still calls for thunderstorms. So no Pick Four analysis tonight, as I have no idea when the rains will come.
I am liking # 3 Horned Frog (ML 9-5) in Race 9; he just missed at this level his last time out at Keeneland. Horned Frog is two-for-three on the Churchill Downs main track, and has always finished in the Exacta (two Wins and two Places) whenever he's tried tonight's distance. The last four times Horned Frog has run on the dirt, his Beyer Speed Figures have been 83 / 85 / 84 / 81, which is approximately what it takes to win at this level.
I also think # 2 Gallant Pleasure (ML 5-1) rates an upset chance in Race 9; it's just a question of whether his last outing was a fluke, or an injury. Gallant Pleasure won at this level at tonight's distance two back with an 85 Beyer; if he can return to that form, he just might get his picture taken when the race is over.
Gotta respect the Baffert with the triple digit Beyer (Zee Bros, ML 5-2) in Race 10, the Derby Trial; but that race looks like a closer's dream; in which case I like # 4 Forty Tales (3-1) best, with a little # 6 Capo Bastone (ML 5-1) and # 1 Officer Alex (ML 8-1) tossed in.
If we stick with just a Race 9 / Race 10 Double, we could do something like this:
$5 DBL 3 / 3, 4
$2 DBL 3 / 1, 6
$1 DBL 2 / 1, 3, 4, 6
Total Cost: $18
Post time for Race 9 @ Churchill Downs is 10:11 EDT / 7:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 20, 2013
4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Results
Well, that was nice. Yes, thanks be to God, that was nice, indeed.
We successfully managed to get our A's home in Races 7, 8, and 10; and while we didn't get the horse we loved the most on top in the featured 9th, we cashed anyway, as we had all the bases covered in that one. For the record, the winners of the late Pick Four at Keeneland Saturday in order were:
RACE 7 - Awesome Flower (1.20)
RACE 8 - Sweet Cassiopeia (2.10)
RACE 9 - Winning Cause (6.80)
RACE 10 - Suyeta (1.70)
The winning sequence of 4 / 9 / 1 / 3 paid out $150.40 for a fifty cent wager. So playing it the way I detailed in the preview meant that our initial investment of $19.50 yielded a profit of $130.90. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We successfully managed to get our A's home in Races 7, 8, and 10; and while we didn't get the horse we loved the most on top in the featured 9th, we cashed anyway, as we had all the bases covered in that one. For the record, the winners of the late Pick Four at Keeneland Saturday in order were:
RACE 7 - Awesome Flower (1.20)
RACE 8 - Sweet Cassiopeia (2.10)
RACE 9 - Winning Cause (6.80)
RACE 10 - Suyeta (1.70)
The winning sequence of 4 / 9 / 1 / 3 paid out $150.40 for a fifty cent wager. So playing it the way I detailed in the preview meant that our initial investment of $19.50 yielded a profit of $130.90. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 3 Lexington, one of the "Wild Card" races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, will be run Saturday at Keeneland Park. And while that promises to be a very competitive event, I think we can have some fun today on the cheap by putting in a Pick Four ticket that includes the feature race.
Taking them one at a time:
RACE 7
# 2 Queen of Mambo (Morning Line 7-2) has just missed at this level (Alw N1X) twice, losing by a neck in each of her last two races. As that pair were two turns on the grass, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not her form will carry in today's contest, her first try on the synthetic.
# 4 Awesome Flower (ML 3-1) won a Claiming Race (Clm $30K N2L) her last time out with a Beyer Speed Figure that's slightly better than par for this level of competition; her Beyer the race prior was even better.
# 5 Clear Danger (ML 10-1) just missed at this level at this distance over this track back in October, three races back. This will be her first start on a synthetic surface since that event.
RACE 8 - THE GIANT'S CAUSEWAY
# 2 Extravaganza (ML 5-1) comes off a win in the Happy Ticket Stakes at Fair Grounds with a Beyer that ties for best last-out in this field. Extravaganza should do much better today than she did in this event last year.
# 5 Sensible Lady (ML 4-1) has multiple wins at this level, and has never finished out of the Trifecta in a turf sprint. She's coming off a long layoff, but that didn't stop her last year as she won the first time off the bench after a greater than four month vacation.
# 9 Sweet Cassiopeia (ML 5-2) ties with Extravaganza for best last-out Beyer, having earned hers in an Allowance Race where she crossed the wire a neck in front of odds-on favorite Stopshoppingmaria. Sweet Cassiopeai's Beyer was even better in her victory in the race before that one, which would prove to be a key race (that is, a race in which more than one of the entrants would go on to win their next race). Sweet Cassiopeia has yet to finish out of the Exacta on the grass.
RACE 9 - THE LEXINGTON
# 11 Pure Fun (ML 7-2) is the girl taking on the boys. More importantly, she's the Grade 1 winner in an event that has no other Graded Stakes winners. She's much improved since moving off the grass, and that Grade 1 victory was earned on a synthetic surface.
RACE 10
# 3 Suyeta (ML 3-1) drops back to a level more in line with his ability, after finishing fourth in a $20k Optional Claimer with a Beyer (81) that should be good enough to win this event today. Suyeta is three-for-six on the Keeneland main track, two-for-three at today's distance, and will have Rosario on board for the ride.
# 9 Ghost Chapel (ML 5-1) won at this level last time out, but with a Beyer below par for this level.
I still think The Lexington is wide open; and the finale needs some spreading as well. But I'm going to try to go cheap here, and see if I can get by with three singles as A's, and then go heavy on the C's. Here's the Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing, beginning with the all A's:
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Play that one for $2.50, and it'll cost you $5.00.
Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $0.50
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 2, 8, 9
Total Cost: $3.00
Total Cost of Pick Four Tickets: $19.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:11 EDT / 1:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
4/14/13 GG R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim we've been following since he was purchased for $4,000 out of a race in which he went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80, brought home some more purse money for the Trujillo barn this past weekend, taking the Show Sunday in Race 2 at Golden Gate Fields. The contest was $5k Clm NW2L X; and, since I know many of you are not degenerate horse players, I'll explain what that means.
Let's start in the middle; Clm is simply shorthand for Claiming Race. A horse in a claiming race is being put up for sale by his current connections. Anyone (OK, not anyone; there are rules as to who can file a claim; but, let's try to keep this relatively simple) can purchase any of the horses running in a claiming race by completing the proper paperwork prior to the race and paying the claiming price. The cost of the horse in this case would be $5,000, or $5k. If more than one person files a claim for a specific horse, then lots are drawn after the race to determine who gets to buy the four legged beauty.
Alright, so every horse in the race is up for sale (well, not every horse; there are exceptions; for example, because of this rule Dos Eqkeys could not be claimed out of this race). That's one way that the race track insures that the race will be competitive; after all, no one (well, again, almost no one) is going to enter a horse worth $10k or $20k or more in this race, and risk losing him for the $5,000 claiming price.
Another way the race track insures this will be a competitive field is by placing conditions on which horses can enter the race; that's what that "NW2L X" is. Briefly, "NW2L" is shorthand for "Non-Winners of Two Lifetime". Well, that seems pretty easy to understand; if a horse has won two races in its career, then it can't compete in this race.
But wait; we know that can't be the whole deal, because we know that City Chapel won his second career race back in February; so how does he qualify? Well, that's where the "X" comes in.
When read out loud, the "X' is stated as "other than". So, reading the full condition of "NW2L X" so that all can hear, one would say, "Non-Winners of Two Lifetime Other Than...." and then look at everyone as they patiently wait for you to tell them "Other Than WHAT?" In this case, a look at the entries tells us that the "WHAT?" is:
1) Maiden Races;
2) Claiming And Starter Races For $4,000 Or Less
Those races, to use the official language, are "not considered".
So now we see how City Chapel is eligible to compete in this race. One of his two lifetime wins came in a maiden race; if that race is "not considered", or if we're talking about all his races "other than" the maiden races, well, then, City Chapel has just one win, and can run in this event.
To give another example, you see that Tonzatrouble, another horse running in this race, has four lifetime wins. But if you don't consider Tonzatrouble's maiden victory; his win in a January Claiming Race for $3,200; and this win where he ran for a $4,000 price tag, then Tonzatrouble has only one win "other than" those races, and is thus eligible to run in this contest.
Hopefully that's clear. If it's not, shoot me an email (JimboMatthews@GMail.com) or post a comment below, and I'll try to do better in a future post.
Anyway, back to City Chapel, we see that he continues to be a sound investment for Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo, bringing back total purse winnings (including Sunday's race) of $16,750. Not bad for a $4,000 purchase.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Let's start in the middle; Clm is simply shorthand for Claiming Race. A horse in a claiming race is being put up for sale by his current connections. Anyone (OK, not anyone; there are rules as to who can file a claim; but, let's try to keep this relatively simple) can purchase any of the horses running in a claiming race by completing the proper paperwork prior to the race and paying the claiming price. The cost of the horse in this case would be $5,000, or $5k. If more than one person files a claim for a specific horse, then lots are drawn after the race to determine who gets to buy the four legged beauty.
Alright, so every horse in the race is up for sale (well, not every horse; there are exceptions; for example, because of this rule Dos Eqkeys could not be claimed out of this race). That's one way that the race track insures that the race will be competitive; after all, no one (well, again, almost no one) is going to enter a horse worth $10k or $20k or more in this race, and risk losing him for the $5,000 claiming price.
Another way the race track insures this will be a competitive field is by placing conditions on which horses can enter the race; that's what that "NW2L X" is. Briefly, "NW2L" is shorthand for "Non-Winners of Two Lifetime". Well, that seems pretty easy to understand; if a horse has won two races in its career, then it can't compete in this race.
But wait; we know that can't be the whole deal, because we know that City Chapel won his second career race back in February; so how does he qualify? Well, that's where the "X" comes in.
When read out loud, the "X' is stated as "other than". So, reading the full condition of "NW2L X" so that all can hear, one would say, "Non-Winners of Two Lifetime Other Than...." and then look at everyone as they patiently wait for you to tell them "Other Than WHAT?" In this case, a look at the entries tells us that the "WHAT?" is:
1) Maiden Races;
2) Claiming And Starter Races For $4,000 Or Less
Those races, to use the official language, are "not considered".
So now we see how City Chapel is eligible to compete in this race. One of his two lifetime wins came in a maiden race; if that race is "not considered", or if we're talking about all his races "other than" the maiden races, well, then, City Chapel has just one win, and can run in this event.
To give another example, you see that Tonzatrouble, another horse running in this race, has four lifetime wins. But if you don't consider Tonzatrouble's maiden victory; his win in a January Claiming Race for $3,200; and this win where he ran for a $4,000 price tag, then Tonzatrouble has only one win "other than" those races, and is thus eligible to run in this contest.
Hopefully that's clear. If it's not, shoot me an email (JimboMatthews@GMail.com) or post a comment below, and I'll try to do better in a future post.
Anyway, back to City Chapel, we see that he continues to be a sound investment for Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo, bringing back total purse winnings (including Sunday's race) of $16,750. Not bad for a $4,000 purchase.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
4/14/13 SA R6 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We continue to follow the exploits of four year old filly Paralyzing Eyes. And I'm sure many of you who are new here (along with several of you who are not so new here) are wondering, "Why?". So I'll begin with a brief recap.
Paralyzing Eyes made her debut in this race, a State-restricted MSW at Hollywood Park in June of 2012 that was won by Horsesanddivorces (who, incidentally, has not won since). After the event I commented that there may be two coming out of the race that would be worth watching: Gypsy Friday (who has not raced since) and Paralyzing Eyes.
Well, after watching Paralyzing Eyes in her second career start, it became pretty clear that this was not a horse to be put on any tickets; certainly not at the MSW class level, even when restricted to state-bred only. [By the way, Paralyzing Eyes in not a California bred; she's an Oklahoma bred; but because her sire stands in California, she's allowed to compete in California state restricted contests. Just in case you were wondering.] Indeed, even competing in the Maiden Claiming ranks, running with a price tag of $20,000 on her head, Paralyzing Eyes, in three races at that level (including Saturday's contest) has yet to finish better than fifth.
So the question remains: Why are we following this horse?
Here's why: Paralyzing Eyes was sired by Decarchy, out of an In Excess (Ire) mare; those are some pretty good bloodlines for a thoroughbred to have flowing through her. So while Paralyzing Eyes has little value as a runner on the track, she potentially has significant value as a broodmare; a fact which you can be sure her trainer Bruce Jackson and her owner Marie Jackson (who, together, were also her breeders) are well aware.
So this is the game, a significant part of the overall game, yet a very under-reported part of the game. Every time the Jacksons run Paralyzing Eyes in a claiming race they risk losing her to another owner; another owner who may have zero interest in running Paralyzing Eyes in another race, but is rather thinking long term as to her potential as a broodmare. So while Paralyzing Eyes is not worth $20,000 to someone looking to win races, she may be worth that much to someone looking toward the next generation of thoroughbreds. This is the gamble the Jacksons take every time they enter Paralyzing Eyes in a Maiden Claiming event.
And as the story unfolds, the question becomes: how much more of a gamble do the Jacksons take? Do they drop her even further down the Maiden Claiming ranks? Such a move would certainly give her a better chance to get that first win; but it would also greatly increase the probability that she would be led to someone else's barn after the race was over. Or perhaps the Jackson just call it a day and decide to race her no more. After all, in addition to the risk of losing ownership over Paralyzing Eyes, there's always the danger every time she competes that she may get injured.
Anyway, this is why we follow Paralyzing Eyes. Maybe I'm alone on this, but I find this story fascinating, and I'm quite interested in seeing how it plays out. Hopefully, at least a few of you reading this find it interesting as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Paralyzing Eyes made her debut in this race, a State-restricted MSW at Hollywood Park in June of 2012 that was won by Horsesanddivorces (who, incidentally, has not won since). After the event I commented that there may be two coming out of the race that would be worth watching: Gypsy Friday (who has not raced since) and Paralyzing Eyes.
Well, after watching Paralyzing Eyes in her second career start, it became pretty clear that this was not a horse to be put on any tickets; certainly not at the MSW class level, even when restricted to state-bred only. [By the way, Paralyzing Eyes in not a California bred; she's an Oklahoma bred; but because her sire stands in California, she's allowed to compete in California state restricted contests. Just in case you were wondering.] Indeed, even competing in the Maiden Claiming ranks, running with a price tag of $20,000 on her head, Paralyzing Eyes, in three races at that level (including Saturday's contest) has yet to finish better than fifth.
So the question remains: Why are we following this horse?
Here's why: Paralyzing Eyes was sired by Decarchy, out of an In Excess (Ire) mare; those are some pretty good bloodlines for a thoroughbred to have flowing through her. So while Paralyzing Eyes has little value as a runner on the track, she potentially has significant value as a broodmare; a fact which you can be sure her trainer Bruce Jackson and her owner Marie Jackson (who, together, were also her breeders) are well aware.
So this is the game, a significant part of the overall game, yet a very under-reported part of the game. Every time the Jacksons run Paralyzing Eyes in a claiming race they risk losing her to another owner; another owner who may have zero interest in running Paralyzing Eyes in another race, but is rather thinking long term as to her potential as a broodmare. So while Paralyzing Eyes is not worth $20,000 to someone looking to win races, she may be worth that much to someone looking toward the next generation of thoroughbreds. This is the gamble the Jacksons take every time they enter Paralyzing Eyes in a Maiden Claiming event.
And as the story unfolds, the question becomes: how much more of a gamble do the Jacksons take? Do they drop her even further down the Maiden Claiming ranks? Such a move would certainly give her a better chance to get that first win; but it would also greatly increase the probability that she would be led to someone else's barn after the race was over. Or perhaps the Jackson just call it a day and decide to race her no more. After all, in addition to the risk of losing ownership over Paralyzing Eyes, there's always the danger every time she competes that she may get injured.
Anyway, this is why we follow Paralyzing Eyes. Maybe I'm alone on this, but I find this story fascinating, and I'm quite interested in seeing how it plays out. Hopefully, at least a few of you reading this find it interesting as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update
The seven races comprising the "Win and You're In and Place and You're Probably In Too" segment of the Road to the Kentucky Derby (a.k.a. the second leg of the Championship Series) are now complete. The UAE Derby in Dubai was won by Lines of Battle; there are no publicly available Beyer Speed Figures for that event. Listed below are the Beyers earned by the winners of each of the other six races in the series:
RACE..............................................WINNER.....................................BEYER
Florida Derby ................................. Orb ............................................. 97
Louisiana Derby ............................. Revolutionary ............................... 93
Wood Memorial ............................. Verrazano .................................... 95
Santa Anita Derby ......................... Goldencents ................................ 105
Arkansas Derby ............................ Overanalyze .................................. 88
Blue Grass ................................... Java's War .................................... 89
Besides Goldencents, other horses that have earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure while winning races that were a part of The Road to the Kentucky Derby series were Verrazano (101 in the Tampa Bay Derby); Super Ninety Nine (102 in the Southwest); and Itsmyluckyday (104 in the Holy Bull).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE..............................................WINNER.....................................BEYER
Florida Derby ................................. Orb ............................................. 97
Louisiana Derby ............................. Revolutionary ............................... 93
Wood Memorial ............................. Verrazano .................................... 95
Santa Anita Derby ......................... Goldencents ................................ 105
Arkansas Derby ............................ Overanalyze .................................. 88
Blue Grass ................................... Java's War .................................... 89
Besides Goldencents, other horses that have earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure while winning races that were a part of The Road to the Kentucky Derby series were Verrazano (101 in the Tampa Bay Derby); Super Ninety Nine (102 in the Southwest); and Itsmyluckyday (104 in the Holy Bull).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/13/13 Keeneland Park - Results
Jeff G said it best in his comment to the previous post:
"Almost a very good day...."
We begin with the two races that we analyzed but did not make part of our play. Race 7 - The Shakertown saw # 5 Havelock (Final Odds 8.30) perform as if spurred on to prove my comments wrong, making a mad dash for the finish line to be up just in time in front of Place horse # 1 Something Extra (2.40) in a blanket finish. How close was the field at the wire? Fifth place finisher # 6 Next Question (6.40) was only a half length behind Havelock at the wire. In an interview on NBC after the race, Havelock's Trainer Darrin Miller was effusive in his praise for Jockey Garrett Gomez's performance in this event; and rightly so, as Gomez demonstrated why he is one of the best (if not in fact the best) in the country on turf, finding the hole and hitting the wire just in time to grab the prize.
We decided that Race 8 - The Madison was the epitome of a chaos race, and it's fair to say that events proved us correct; as the winner was the second longest shot on the board, # 5 Last Full Measure (17.80), while the Post Time favorite. # 10 Fantasy of Flight (3.10), finished 8th, more than thirteen lengths back. If you were sharp enough to work out the Superfecta of # 5 Last Full Measure / # 1 Byrama (4.70) / # 6 Jamaican Smoke (3.50) / # 8 Drama Drama (14.80) you were rewarded with a $481.29 payout for your ten cent wager.
Race 9 - The Jenny Wiley began our play in both the Pick Four and the Pick Three, and saw our lone "A" selection in the race, # 1 Centre Court (1.70) win by a comfortable two lengths over one of our two "C" selections, # 8 Daisy Devine (3.60). For the record, the # 1 Centre Court / # 8 Daisy Devine Exacta was worth $12.30 for a one dollar wager.
Race 10 - The Blue Grass saw another of our "A" selections, # 4 Java's War (4.60) run his way into a berth in this year's Kentucky Derby, finishing a neck in front of # 5 Palace Malice (4.90). I should note here that in my analysis I picked the wrong Kitten, as the Todd Pletcher trained # 8 Charming Kitten (22.20) took the Show, just a half length behind the winner; while the Kitten that I preferred, # 14 Fear the Kitten (36.40) ended up two slots further down the chart in fifth.
As the wagering opened for Race 11 it soon became clear that this may not be my day; as a horse that I had discussed and dismissed, # 2 Mezzano (2.10) was in the process of being bet down from a Morning Line of 10-1 to be the Post Time Favorite. Sure enough, Mezzano would go on to win for fun, finishing a comfortable four and a half lengths ahead of one of our two "A" selections in the race, # 1 Dubious Miss (3.80), and leaving me wondering if I would be getting flowers the next day, or a dinner invite, or, at the very least, a phone call.
Race 12, the finale on the Keeneland card, saw another of our "A" selections finish first, as # 5 Liz Pendens (2.50) was able to cross the wire a nose in front of first time starter # 2 Allegheny Angel (13.80).
So there it is. Our $0.50 Pick Three ticket ends up with two out of three winners, while our $1.00 Pick Four ticket hits on three of the four legs. As you already know, both tickets paid the same amount.
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Three sequence in Races 9 - 11 of 1 / 4 / 2 paid $40.55 for a fifty cent wager, while the correct Pick Four sequence in Races 9 - 12 of 1 / 4 / 2 / 5 paid $203.15 for a fifty cent wager ($406.30 for a one dollar bet). May God bless all those who had it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"Almost a very good day...."
We begin with the two races that we analyzed but did not make part of our play. Race 7 - The Shakertown saw # 5 Havelock (Final Odds 8.30) perform as if spurred on to prove my comments wrong, making a mad dash for the finish line to be up just in time in front of Place horse # 1 Something Extra (2.40) in a blanket finish. How close was the field at the wire? Fifth place finisher # 6 Next Question (6.40) was only a half length behind Havelock at the wire. In an interview on NBC after the race, Havelock's Trainer Darrin Miller was effusive in his praise for Jockey Garrett Gomez's performance in this event; and rightly so, as Gomez demonstrated why he is one of the best (if not in fact the best) in the country on turf, finding the hole and hitting the wire just in time to grab the prize.
We decided that Race 8 - The Madison was the epitome of a chaos race, and it's fair to say that events proved us correct; as the winner was the second longest shot on the board, # 5 Last Full Measure (17.80), while the Post Time favorite. # 10 Fantasy of Flight (3.10), finished 8th, more than thirteen lengths back. If you were sharp enough to work out the Superfecta of # 5 Last Full Measure / # 1 Byrama (4.70) / # 6 Jamaican Smoke (3.50) / # 8 Drama Drama (14.80) you were rewarded with a $481.29 payout for your ten cent wager.
Race 9 - The Jenny Wiley began our play in both the Pick Four and the Pick Three, and saw our lone "A" selection in the race, # 1 Centre Court (1.70) win by a comfortable two lengths over one of our two "C" selections, # 8 Daisy Devine (3.60). For the record, the # 1 Centre Court / # 8 Daisy Devine Exacta was worth $12.30 for a one dollar wager.
Race 10 - The Blue Grass saw another of our "A" selections, # 4 Java's War (4.60) run his way into a berth in this year's Kentucky Derby, finishing a neck in front of # 5 Palace Malice (4.90). I should note here that in my analysis I picked the wrong Kitten, as the Todd Pletcher trained # 8 Charming Kitten (22.20) took the Show, just a half length behind the winner; while the Kitten that I preferred, # 14 Fear the Kitten (36.40) ended up two slots further down the chart in fifth.
As the wagering opened for Race 11 it soon became clear that this may not be my day; as a horse that I had discussed and dismissed, # 2 Mezzano (2.10) was in the process of being bet down from a Morning Line of 10-1 to be the Post Time Favorite. Sure enough, Mezzano would go on to win for fun, finishing a comfortable four and a half lengths ahead of one of our two "A" selections in the race, # 1 Dubious Miss (3.80), and leaving me wondering if I would be getting flowers the next day, or a dinner invite, or, at the very least, a phone call.
Race 12, the finale on the Keeneland card, saw another of our "A" selections finish first, as # 5 Liz Pendens (2.50) was able to cross the wire a nose in front of first time starter # 2 Allegheny Angel (13.80).
So there it is. Our $0.50 Pick Three ticket ends up with two out of three winners, while our $1.00 Pick Four ticket hits on three of the four legs. As you already know, both tickets paid the same amount.
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Three sequence in Races 9 - 11 of 1 / 4 / 2 paid $40.55 for a fifty cent wager, while the correct Pick Four sequence in Races 9 - 12 of 1 / 4 / 2 / 5 paid $203.15 for a fifty cent wager ($406.30 for a one dollar bet). May God bless all those who had it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 13, 2013
4/13/13 Keeneland Park - The Play
For those who missed it, the analysis is in the earlier post below. I've decided to take a swing at the late Pick 4, using some A's and C's. I'll also be putting some money towards the Pick 3 of Races 9 - 11. Here's the play I decided to make:
First, the Pick 4 of all A's:
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 4, 7
RACE 11: 1, 7
RACE 12: 1, 5, 8
Play that one for a buck, making the total cost $12.
Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:
RACE 9: 3, 8
RACE 10: 4, 7
RACE 11: 1, 7
RACE 12: 1, 5, 8
Total Cost: $12
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 10, 13, 14
RACE 11: 1, 7
RACE 12: 1, 5, 8
Total Cost: $9
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 4, 7
RACE 11: 1, 7
RACE 12: 6, 10
Total Cost: $4
Total Cost of Pick 4 Tickets: $37
For the Pick 3, we'll just take all our contenders for Races 9 - 11 and put them all together on one fifty cent ticket:
RACE 9: 1, 3, 8
RACE 10: 4, 7, 10, 13, 14
RACE 11: 1, 7
Total Cost: $15
So the whole shebang will run you fifty-two dollars.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/13/13 Keeneland Park - Preview
Saturday is Blue Grass Day at Keeneland Park, which is using that Kentucky Derby prep race at the centerpiece of a card chock full of competitive stakes, along with a wide array of multi-race wagers, including two fifty cent Pick Fives and three fifty cent Pick Fours. Below I'll give some brief thoughts on the latter half of the card, beginning with Race 7, the Grade 3 Shakertown, which kicks off an all Graded Stakes Pick Four.
RACE 7 - The Shakertown
# 1 Something Extra (Morning Line 9-2) posted a 101 Beyer Speed Figure his last time out, taking the Place in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, which was run at a distance of five furlongs. Prior to that race, the last time Something Extra ran in a turf sprint he posted a 102 Beyer while winning the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes at Woodbine. If Something Extra repeats either of those performances today, he should find himself getting his picture taken after the race.
# 8 Perfect Officer (ML 3-1) will be making his first start of 2013 in this race; but note that was also the case when he won last year's running of this event Also note that his trainer, Tony Dutrow, shows a .27 Winning Percentage with horses returning to the track after a layoff of over 180 days.
# 2 Hogy (ML 8-1) was showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyers (89, 92, 94) in turf sprints beginning in Summer 2012, when his connections decided to move him onto the main dirt track at Hawthorne. Hogy held his form well in those two races; if he can continue to improve on his prior turf efforts he will be competitive in this one, despite the jump in class.
# 5 Havelock (ML 4-1) has a good deal of back-class, and is two-for-three on the Keeneland grass; add in the presence of Garrett Gomez in the saddle, and there's a lot to like here. But I'll be taking a stand against Havelock today, as I'm not impressed with his performances in 2012 when returning from vacation, nor am I enamoured with conditioner Darrin Miller's .08 Winning Percentage when bringing a horse back from a two-to-six month layoff. It's also worth mentioning that Havelock hasn't won a turf sprint since October, 2011.
# 7 Regally Ready (ML 4-1) is another horse that I'll be playing against today. While there's no complaints with trainer Steve Asmussen's .23 Winning Percentage when running a entrant off a greater than six month absence, Regally Ready just hasn't been the same horse since taking the show in the 2012 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita, failing to finish in the money in any of his turf sprints since that event.
RACE 8 - The Madison
In addition to being the second leg of the all-stakes Pick Four, Race 8 also kicks off the late $0.50 Pick Five. Race 8 is also the reason why I do not expect to be making a serious wager in either of those bets.
Race 8 is The Madison, a Grade 1 Stakes, but Grade 1 in name only. Not only do none of the entrants show a Grade 1 victory in their Past Performances (ten races back) only one of the contestants, # 10 Fantasy of Flight (ML 7-2) shows even an entry into a Grade 1 event (The Humana Distaff Stakes, a race in which Fantasy of Flight ran 9th, beaten by over twenty-three lengths). Only one entrant in today's contest shows a victory in a Grade 2 Stakes, Holiday for Kitten (ML 9-2), who won the Turf Amazon Handicap over this track back in October of 2011. In my humble opinion this race is the very definition of a chaos race, and I can't see including this contest in a serious multi-race wager without hitting the "All" button.
If you're just looking for an action play here, I could recommend # 6 Jamaican Smoke (ML 5-1) who was victorious his only time competing on this surface, and projects to be the speed of the speed.
RACE 9 - The Jenny Wiley
Race 9 begins the final Pick Four on Saturday's card.
# 1 Centre Court (ML 5-2) has finished in the Exacta in every race of her career, excepting her debut (which, not so coincidentally, was also her only race not on the grass). She appears to be a standout in this one, with the only blemish being the fact that she has yet to win at this track, taking the Place both times that she's competed on the Keeneland turf.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 5-1) comes off her stunning upset in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes at Hollywood Park last November in which she paid $72.20 to Win while topping a Trifecta that paid over three thousand dollars for a buck. Better Lucky finished behind Centre Court in her three races prior to The Matriarch; and while there's the possibility Better Lucky may upset today, you can be sure she won't be going to Post at 30-1.
# 8 Daisy Devine (ML 4-1) won this event last year by wiring the field, and projects again to be the one in front for at least most of the early going. Combine that with her perfect five-for-five record in turf contests at this distance, along with being two-for-three (with one second) when competing on the Keeneland grass, and you must count her among the contenders. The Trainer Stats for her conditioner, Andrew McKeever (.29 Winning Percentage in Graded Stakes; .28 WP in Routes; .29 WP with horses returning between 31-60 days) just add to the appeal. However, Jockey James Graham has been having great difficulty finding the Winner's Circle so far this meet; which, if not a red flag, certainly suggests caution.
RACE 10 - The Blue Grass
# 4 Java's War (ML 4-1) has the best last time out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (96, which also ties for the best career Beyer among this bunch), earned while taking the Place behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. Java's War was sired by War Pass, who had a brilliant though brief career, and then died so tragically young.
# 7 Uncaptured (ML 7-2) is the other possessor of the best career Beyer in this field; and, unlike Java's War, earned that number while running over a synthetic surface. Uncaptured is four-for-six lifetime on the plastic, and showed a lot of heart while winning his stretch duel against Frac Daddy in last year's Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Worth remembering if Uncaptured wins today and finds himself running for the roses on May 4 is that he is two-for-two lifetime on the Churchill Downs main track, and is sired by Lion Heart, the horse who took the Place behind Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
# 10 Footbridge (ML 20-1) broke his maiden his last time out, after having finished a neck behind Govenor Charlie (winner of the Sunland Derby) in his prior attempt. Footbridge owns the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance (397) in this field, and is sired by Street Cry (Ire), which suggests that Footbridge should handle the make-believe dirt quite nicely.
# 13 Rydilluc (ML 4-1) is undefeated in his last three races, and his Beyers have shown steady improvement. But all those races have been on grass; this will be his first try on the synthetics, and there's no guarantee that he'll keep his form with the change in surface. Also note that Trainer Gary Contessa is winless when running horses on the plastic the last couple of years, albeit in a very small sample size.
# 8 Charming Kitten (ML 10-1) is one of two Todd Pletcher trained entrants in this event, and for that reason alone will garner a good deal of attention. But the Kitten's Joy child I'll be watching is # 14 Fear the Kitten (ML 30-1). Fear the Kitten already has a win over this track, and the presence of Dynaformer as Damsire suggests a natural inclination for this unnatural surface. Trainer Michael Maker wins about a quarter of the time he runs a horse on the synthetics, and also shows a positive ROI in his Graded Stakes attempts. If any horse in this field is going to blow up the tote board, my hunch is that this will be the one.
RACE 11
# 1 Dubious Miss (ML 5-2) gets some much needed class relief, having finished third against stakes company two back while taking the Place against N3X competition the race prior to that. Dubious Miss is three-for-four over the Keeneland main track, and four-for-eight (with two seconds) in her career on all synthetic surfaces.
# 7 Chalice (ML 5-1) took the Place his last time out against this level, finishing behind Whatthecatdrugin, who came back to win his next time out. Chalice's Beyers his last three times out, all on synthetic surfaces, show a slight steady increase (87, 88, 91) suggesting consistency. His conditioner, Kellyn Gorder, has impeccable stats in all the key angles (Synth: 22%, $2.03 ROI; 31-60 Days: 25%, $2.67 ROI; Routes: 27%, $1.99 ROI; Claim: 35%, $2.13 ROI; Allowance: 20%, $2.29 ROI).
# 2 Mezzano (ML 10-1) has taken the Place his last two times out at this level, just missing in a photo finish his last time out. This will be Mezzano's first time on the synthetic, and there's little in his pedigree, or in Trainer Alan Goldberg's recent record, to suggest that he'll take to the surface.
# 9 Working for Hops (ML 4-1) shares with Chalice the honor of having the best last out Beyer. But while Chalice earned his figure on a synthetic main track, Working for Hops ran his race on the turf; the surface to which Working for Hops seems much better suited. Note that the last two times Working for Hops raced on the plastic he posted Beyers of 79 and 82; figures which will not get him in the money against this field today.
RACE 12
# 1 Rafaelini (ML 5-1) # 5 Liz Pendens (ML 4-1) and # 8 Taylor Street (ML 10-1) have all posted Beyer Speed Figures of 70 or better in races run over a firm turf course at a distance of at least eight furlongs. # 6 Abbey Street (ML 9-2), after failing four times in turf sprints, makes her first start at a distance greater than a mile; her breeding suggests that she's better suited to turf routes rather than sprints. # 10 English Holiday (ML 15-1) is the most intriguing entrant in the field, having debuted against stakes company back in September, and not competing since.
I haven't yet decided how I'll play this lot, other than choosing to lay off the Pick Five and the all-stakes Pick 4. I may do something with that final Pick 4; though I may just focus on the Pick 3 with Races 9 - 11. Once I do make my play, I'll be sure to post it here. Until then, hopefully you'll find something in the above that will help you make your selections.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Shakertown
# 1 Something Extra (Morning Line 9-2) posted a 101 Beyer Speed Figure his last time out, taking the Place in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, which was run at a distance of five furlongs. Prior to that race, the last time Something Extra ran in a turf sprint he posted a 102 Beyer while winning the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes at Woodbine. If Something Extra repeats either of those performances today, he should find himself getting his picture taken after the race.
# 8 Perfect Officer (ML 3-1) will be making his first start of 2013 in this race; but note that was also the case when he won last year's running of this event Also note that his trainer, Tony Dutrow, shows a .27 Winning Percentage with horses returning to the track after a layoff of over 180 days.
# 2 Hogy (ML 8-1) was showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyers (89, 92, 94) in turf sprints beginning in Summer 2012, when his connections decided to move him onto the main dirt track at Hawthorne. Hogy held his form well in those two races; if he can continue to improve on his prior turf efforts he will be competitive in this one, despite the jump in class.
# 5 Havelock (ML 4-1) has a good deal of back-class, and is two-for-three on the Keeneland grass; add in the presence of Garrett Gomez in the saddle, and there's a lot to like here. But I'll be taking a stand against Havelock today, as I'm not impressed with his performances in 2012 when returning from vacation, nor am I enamoured with conditioner Darrin Miller's .08 Winning Percentage when bringing a horse back from a two-to-six month layoff. It's also worth mentioning that Havelock hasn't won a turf sprint since October, 2011.
# 7 Regally Ready (ML 4-1) is another horse that I'll be playing against today. While there's no complaints with trainer Steve Asmussen's .23 Winning Percentage when running a entrant off a greater than six month absence, Regally Ready just hasn't been the same horse since taking the show in the 2012 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita, failing to finish in the money in any of his turf sprints since that event.
RACE 8 - The Madison
In addition to being the second leg of the all-stakes Pick Four, Race 8 also kicks off the late $0.50 Pick Five. Race 8 is also the reason why I do not expect to be making a serious wager in either of those bets.
Race 8 is The Madison, a Grade 1 Stakes, but Grade 1 in name only. Not only do none of the entrants show a Grade 1 victory in their Past Performances (ten races back) only one of the contestants, # 10 Fantasy of Flight (ML 7-2) shows even an entry into a Grade 1 event (The Humana Distaff Stakes, a race in which Fantasy of Flight ran 9th, beaten by over twenty-three lengths). Only one entrant in today's contest shows a victory in a Grade 2 Stakes, Holiday for Kitten (ML 9-2), who won the Turf Amazon Handicap over this track back in October of 2011. In my humble opinion this race is the very definition of a chaos race, and I can't see including this contest in a serious multi-race wager without hitting the "All" button.
If you're just looking for an action play here, I could recommend # 6 Jamaican Smoke (ML 5-1) who was victorious his only time competing on this surface, and projects to be the speed of the speed.
RACE 9 - The Jenny Wiley
Race 9 begins the final Pick Four on Saturday's card.
# 1 Centre Court (ML 5-2) has finished in the Exacta in every race of her career, excepting her debut (which, not so coincidentally, was also her only race not on the grass). She appears to be a standout in this one, with the only blemish being the fact that she has yet to win at this track, taking the Place both times that she's competed on the Keeneland turf.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 5-1) comes off her stunning upset in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes at Hollywood Park last November in which she paid $72.20 to Win while topping a Trifecta that paid over three thousand dollars for a buck. Better Lucky finished behind Centre Court in her three races prior to The Matriarch; and while there's the possibility Better Lucky may upset today, you can be sure she won't be going to Post at 30-1.
# 8 Daisy Devine (ML 4-1) won this event last year by wiring the field, and projects again to be the one in front for at least most of the early going. Combine that with her perfect five-for-five record in turf contests at this distance, along with being two-for-three (with one second) when competing on the Keeneland grass, and you must count her among the contenders. The Trainer Stats for her conditioner, Andrew McKeever (.29 Winning Percentage in Graded Stakes; .28 WP in Routes; .29 WP with horses returning between 31-60 days) just add to the appeal. However, Jockey James Graham has been having great difficulty finding the Winner's Circle so far this meet; which, if not a red flag, certainly suggests caution.
RACE 10 - The Blue Grass
# 4 Java's War (ML 4-1) has the best last time out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (96, which also ties for the best career Beyer among this bunch), earned while taking the Place behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. Java's War was sired by War Pass, who had a brilliant though brief career, and then died so tragically young.
# 7 Uncaptured (ML 7-2) is the other possessor of the best career Beyer in this field; and, unlike Java's War, earned that number while running over a synthetic surface. Uncaptured is four-for-six lifetime on the plastic, and showed a lot of heart while winning his stretch duel against Frac Daddy in last year's Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Worth remembering if Uncaptured wins today and finds himself running for the roses on May 4 is that he is two-for-two lifetime on the Churchill Downs main track, and is sired by Lion Heart, the horse who took the Place behind Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
# 10 Footbridge (ML 20-1) broke his maiden his last time out, after having finished a neck behind Govenor Charlie (winner of the Sunland Derby) in his prior attempt. Footbridge owns the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance (397) in this field, and is sired by Street Cry (Ire), which suggests that Footbridge should handle the make-believe dirt quite nicely.
# 13 Rydilluc (ML 4-1) is undefeated in his last three races, and his Beyers have shown steady improvement. But all those races have been on grass; this will be his first try on the synthetics, and there's no guarantee that he'll keep his form with the change in surface. Also note that Trainer Gary Contessa is winless when running horses on the plastic the last couple of years, albeit in a very small sample size.
# 8 Charming Kitten (ML 10-1) is one of two Todd Pletcher trained entrants in this event, and for that reason alone will garner a good deal of attention. But the Kitten's Joy child I'll be watching is # 14 Fear the Kitten (ML 30-1). Fear the Kitten already has a win over this track, and the presence of Dynaformer as Damsire suggests a natural inclination for this unnatural surface. Trainer Michael Maker wins about a quarter of the time he runs a horse on the synthetics, and also shows a positive ROI in his Graded Stakes attempts. If any horse in this field is going to blow up the tote board, my hunch is that this will be the one.
RACE 11
# 1 Dubious Miss (ML 5-2) gets some much needed class relief, having finished third against stakes company two back while taking the Place against N3X competition the race prior to that. Dubious Miss is three-for-four over the Keeneland main track, and four-for-eight (with two seconds) in her career on all synthetic surfaces.
# 7 Chalice (ML 5-1) took the Place his last time out against this level, finishing behind Whatthecatdrugin, who came back to win his next time out. Chalice's Beyers his last three times out, all on synthetic surfaces, show a slight steady increase (87, 88, 91) suggesting consistency. His conditioner, Kellyn Gorder, has impeccable stats in all the key angles (Synth: 22%, $2.03 ROI; 31-60 Days: 25%, $2.67 ROI; Routes: 27%, $1.99 ROI; Claim: 35%, $2.13 ROI; Allowance: 20%, $2.29 ROI).
# 2 Mezzano (ML 10-1) has taken the Place his last two times out at this level, just missing in a photo finish his last time out. This will be Mezzano's first time on the synthetic, and there's little in his pedigree, or in Trainer Alan Goldberg's recent record, to suggest that he'll take to the surface.
# 9 Working for Hops (ML 4-1) shares with Chalice the honor of having the best last out Beyer. But while Chalice earned his figure on a synthetic main track, Working for Hops ran his race on the turf; the surface to which Working for Hops seems much better suited. Note that the last two times Working for Hops raced on the plastic he posted Beyers of 79 and 82; figures which will not get him in the money against this field today.
RACE 12
# 1 Rafaelini (ML 5-1) # 5 Liz Pendens (ML 4-1) and # 8 Taylor Street (ML 10-1) have all posted Beyer Speed Figures of 70 or better in races run over a firm turf course at a distance of at least eight furlongs. # 6 Abbey Street (ML 9-2), after failing four times in turf sprints, makes her first start at a distance greater than a mile; her breeding suggests that she's better suited to turf routes rather than sprints. # 10 English Holiday (ML 15-1) is the most intriguing entrant in the field, having debuted against stakes company back in September, and not competing since.
I haven't yet decided how I'll play this lot, other than choosing to lay off the Pick Five and the all-stakes Pick 4. I may do something with that final Pick 4; though I may just focus on the Pick 3 with Races 9 - 11. Once I do make my play, I'll be sure to post it here. Until then, hopefully you'll find something in the above that will help you make your selections.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Sunday, April 7, 2013
8/4/12 DMR Race 5 - Key Race - Update
Key Race 8/4/12 DMR Race 5, first noted here September 7, 2012, has now come back in full:
Rolling Fog - WIN 9/5/12 DMR Race 8
Power Ped - 6th 10/14/12 SA Race 4
Modern - 8th 12/8/12 BHP Race 7
Anytime - 7th 9/2/12 DMR Race 4
Dirty Swagg - WIN 9/1/12 DMR Race 7
Sexyuknowit - 6th 8/24/12 DMR Race 2
Derekson - 9th 8/17/12 DMR Race 5
Divo - PLACE 9/16/12 GG Race 7
Regally Soul - 7th 4/6/12 SA Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Rolling Fog - WIN 9/5/12 DMR Race 8
Power Ped - 6th 10/14/12 SA Race 4
Modern - 8th 12/8/12 BHP Race 7
Anytime - 7th 9/2/12 DMR Race 4
Dirty Swagg - WIN 9/1/12 DMR Race 7
Sexyuknowit - 6th 8/24/12 DMR Race 2
Derekson - 9th 8/17/12 DMR Race 5
Divo - PLACE 9/16/12 GG Race 7
Regally Soul - 7th 4/6/12 SA Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, April 5, 2013
4/5/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
A good beginning, a good ending; but in-between - not so good.
We saw our A selections win Races 8, 9, 12, and 13. But in Race 10 all three of our horses finished out of the money; while Race 11 saw our A selection take the Place, as our C picks occupied three of the bottom four positions.
Missing Race 10 was simply poor handicapping, a total brain fart on my part; as the winner, Running Wildcat, was two-for-four lifetime on off tracks going into Friday, with a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 405. There was no excuse for not have Running Wildcat on our ticket. However, I could have gone six deep in Race 11 and none of the six would have been the eventual winner, Trinni Heart. Trinni Heart had five starts at this level before Friday without ever finishing within five lengths of the winner, while his one prior career start on a sloppy track saw him act up in the gate prior to the start, and then being eased towards the end of the race while running more than thirty lengths behind the leader.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, the winning horses in Friday's Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park were:
RACE 8: # 10 Sweet N Discreet (Final Odds 1.40)
RACE 9: # 14 Wild Perfection (1.60)
RACE 10: # 7 Running Wildcat (6.90)
RACE 11: # 11 Trinni Heart (4.40)
RACE 12: # 11 Charlie in Charge (2.60)
RACE 13: # 1 Sweet Gator Girl (3.10)
Those who played the correct sequence were rewarded with a payout of $4,234.01 for every ten cents wagered. May God bless them as they enjoy their winnings.
Equibase charts for all of Friday's races at Gulfstream, including the Rainbow Six sequence, can be found here; while those who prefer their charts DRF style can view those here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We saw our A selections win Races 8, 9, 12, and 13. But in Race 10 all three of our horses finished out of the money; while Race 11 saw our A selection take the Place, as our C picks occupied three of the bottom four positions.
Missing Race 10 was simply poor handicapping, a total brain fart on my part; as the winner, Running Wildcat, was two-for-four lifetime on off tracks going into Friday, with a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 405. There was no excuse for not have Running Wildcat on our ticket. However, I could have gone six deep in Race 11 and none of the six would have been the eventual winner, Trinni Heart. Trinni Heart had five starts at this level before Friday without ever finishing within five lengths of the winner, while his one prior career start on a sloppy track saw him act up in the gate prior to the start, and then being eased towards the end of the race while running more than thirty lengths behind the leader.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, the winning horses in Friday's Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park were:
RACE 8: # 10 Sweet N Discreet (Final Odds 1.40)
RACE 9: # 14 Wild Perfection (1.60)
RACE 10: # 7 Running Wildcat (6.90)
RACE 11: # 11 Trinni Heart (4.40)
RACE 12: # 11 Charlie in Charge (2.60)
RACE 13: # 1 Sweet Gator Girl (3.10)
Those who played the correct sequence were rewarded with a payout of $4,234.01 for every ten cents wagered. May God bless them as they enjoy their winnings.
Equibase charts for all of Friday's races at Gulfstream, including the Rainbow Six sequence, can be found here; while those who prefer their charts DRF style can view those here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/5/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
So this is it; the final day of the Gulfstream Park meet. Everything in the Rainbow Six pool must be paid out today. While the temptation to shovel all I can get my hands on through the windows to cover every possible combination is tempting, I'll play it light (well, relatively light) and see what happens.
RACE 8
# 10 Sweet N Discreet (Morning Line 7-2) makes her second career start for the Todd Pletcher barn, having failed as the Post Time favorite back in July at Belmont Park. She possesses Tomlinson Ratings above 400 for both Wet tracks and today's distance, and will have Castellano on board for the ride.
RACE 9
# 3 Indygo Prince (ML 6-1) missed at this level by less than two lengths his last time out. The bullet work on March 29 shows that he can run on dirt, and the Wet Tomlinson of 390 is an indicator that the slop won't slow him down. # 4 King Khalifa (ML 6-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in the field (407) and took the Show last time out against more expensive. # 14 Wild Perfection (ML 8-1) took the Place two back against higher company, and runs for a barn that has a 18% Win Rate in Maiden Claimers.
RACE 10
# 4 Monroe Court (ML 6-1) won at this level last time out. Monroe Court is two-for-four on the Gulfstream Park main track, and has been in the Exacta both times that he's competed at this distance. # 5 Morality (ML 3-1) took the Show his last time out, which was against this class level. His conditioner, Peter Walder, hits 27% of the time in Claiming events. # 10 Jordan's Image (ML 4-1) won at this level two back and was claimed away from Trainer Angel Quiroz, who claimed Jordan's Image right back the next time he ran. Jordan's Image is two-for-four lifetime on off tracks.
RACE 11
# 3 Silver Lining John (ML 4-1) goes first time from a sire whose offspring win their first time out 19% of the time, and for a trainer (Pletcher) who connects a third of the time one of his horses makes their debut. Silver Lining John has a Wet Tomlinson of 393, so the slop should not be a problem. Also worth noting is that the colt has not missed a weekly work since January.
RACE 12
# 1 Crafty Unicorn (ML 4-1) is the class of this field, being a stakes winner (in his debut, no less) and hitting the board three other times in stakes company. The layoff is a concern, however, especially with the light worktab. # 11 Charles in Charge (ML 12-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in this bunch (419) and showed a lot of heart in each of his last two races.
RACE 13
# 1 Sweet Gator Girl (ML 6-1) just missed against more expensive on the dirt back in November. Having Afleet Alex as her sire gives her a pedigree edge. # 12 Sortaria (ML 12-1) took the show two back on a sloppy track against more expensive in a sprint; having Dixie Union as her Grandsire suggests she should do better around two turns. # 14 My Pal Ariana (ML 3-1) missed by a neck at this level last out; time before that, she took the Show in this company.
The above is the A list. Putting them together gives us a ticket of:
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Playing the above for thirty cents costs $16.20
If we scatter in a few C's, we can also play the following tickets:
RACE 8: 2 / 5
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $10.80
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 7
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $1.80
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 6 / 8 / 12
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $16.20
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 6 / 8
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $5.40
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 6 / 11
Cost: $3.60
Total Cost: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:34 EDT / 1:34 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8
# 10 Sweet N Discreet (Morning Line 7-2) makes her second career start for the Todd Pletcher barn, having failed as the Post Time favorite back in July at Belmont Park. She possesses Tomlinson Ratings above 400 for both Wet tracks and today's distance, and will have Castellano on board for the ride.
RACE 9
# 3 Indygo Prince (ML 6-1) missed at this level by less than two lengths his last time out. The bullet work on March 29 shows that he can run on dirt, and the Wet Tomlinson of 390 is an indicator that the slop won't slow him down. # 4 King Khalifa (ML 6-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in the field (407) and took the Show last time out against more expensive. # 14 Wild Perfection (ML 8-1) took the Place two back against higher company, and runs for a barn that has a 18% Win Rate in Maiden Claimers.
RACE 10
# 4 Monroe Court (ML 6-1) won at this level last time out. Monroe Court is two-for-four on the Gulfstream Park main track, and has been in the Exacta both times that he's competed at this distance. # 5 Morality (ML 3-1) took the Show his last time out, which was against this class level. His conditioner, Peter Walder, hits 27% of the time in Claiming events. # 10 Jordan's Image (ML 4-1) won at this level two back and was claimed away from Trainer Angel Quiroz, who claimed Jordan's Image right back the next time he ran. Jordan's Image is two-for-four lifetime on off tracks.
RACE 11
# 3 Silver Lining John (ML 4-1) goes first time from a sire whose offspring win their first time out 19% of the time, and for a trainer (Pletcher) who connects a third of the time one of his horses makes their debut. Silver Lining John has a Wet Tomlinson of 393, so the slop should not be a problem. Also worth noting is that the colt has not missed a weekly work since January.
RACE 12
# 1 Crafty Unicorn (ML 4-1) is the class of this field, being a stakes winner (in his debut, no less) and hitting the board three other times in stakes company. The layoff is a concern, however, especially with the light worktab. # 11 Charles in Charge (ML 12-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in this bunch (419) and showed a lot of heart in each of his last two races.
RACE 13
# 1 Sweet Gator Girl (ML 6-1) just missed against more expensive on the dirt back in November. Having Afleet Alex as her sire gives her a pedigree edge. # 12 Sortaria (ML 12-1) took the show two back on a sloppy track against more expensive in a sprint; having Dixie Union as her Grandsire suggests she should do better around two turns. # 14 My Pal Ariana (ML 3-1) missed by a neck at this level last out; time before that, she took the Show in this company.
The above is the A list. Putting them together gives us a ticket of:
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Playing the above for thirty cents costs $16.20
If we scatter in a few C's, we can also play the following tickets:
RACE 8: 2 / 5
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $10.80
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 7
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $1.80
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 6 / 8 / 12
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $16.20
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 6 / 8
RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14
Cost: $5.40
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14
RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 11
RACE 13: 6 / 11
Cost: $3.60
Total Cost: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:34 EDT / 1:34 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Playing The Rainbow Six - A Personal Perspective
Those who follow this blog regularly no doubt noticed that I had no selections up this past Saturday for Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six. I thought I should take a moment to explain why; an explanation which would also allow me to give some insight into my own personal approach towards playing this wager.
Saturday morning I worked out a Rainbow Six ticket that was in the nowhere man’s land of simultaneously being too expensive while also not offering enough coverage.
To clarify: I usually play Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six on the cheap, generally in the fifteen-to-twenty dollar range. I can do this because this is a ten cent wager at Gulfstream Park. If I were playing the Pick Six elsewhere, say, at a NYRA or SoCal venue, where the wager is two bucks, then these same tickets that cost twenty dollars at Gulfstream Park would cost four hundred dollars; which, by the way, is why I don’t play the two dollar Pick Sixes.
Playing the Rainbow Six for approximately fifteen-to-twenty dollars makes for a fun play because it gives enough coverage where you'll often get some action from the ticket, while at the same time not putting your whole gaming budget into one wager. But when you stray too far from that range, you find yourself an area where the wager has to payoff more than once a year in order to be profitable; which in turn means adding more horses (at more money) in order to get the coverage you would need to be satisfied with the wager.
For the record, and as an example, here’s the ticket that I was looking at Saturday:
RACE 8) 3, 5, 6
RACE 9) 5, 6, 7
RACE 10) 3, 8, 9
RACE 11) 3, 9
RACE 12) 1, 3, 6, 7
RACE 13) 3, 4, 11
Since these are Saturday's races, we already know the results; but let's try to put that aside for now, and put ourselves in a place prior to the running of the opening leg. What we're looking at is a $64.80 ticket (3 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 4 x 3 = 648 combinations; multiply that by ten cents to get the total cost; if this was a two dollar bet, the ticket would cost $1,296.00).
Now a $64.80 is well beyond our normal price range; but that's not the problem. The problem is that it's a $64.80 ticket that still has holes. For example, in Race 9, The Orchid, we're leaving out a Morning Line 5-1 shot that won The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf her last time out. In Race 10, we've left out another Morning Line 5-1 shot that's a multiple stakes winner, and is two-for-three over the Gulfstream Park main track. In Race 11, we've left out the horse with the best last race Beyer Speed Figure. In Race 12 we've left out one of only two horses in the field who actually had a win at the distance being run Saturday. And so on.
That’s a lot of holes.
Now, obviously, once the ticket was whittled down into a price range that I would play, it still didn't have any of those horses on my ticket; along with not having some other horses that I liked a lot more. That is to say, the final ticket had even more holes in it.
So why is that preferable?
The difference is, if I put in a twenty dollar ticket and the multiple stakes winner who's two-for-three over the main track beats me; oh well, onto the next race. But if I put in a sixty-five dollar ticket and get beat by that same horse, then it’s “how do you spend that much on a ticket and then not spend a few dollars more to include an obvious contender?” So realizing that ahead of time, you spend the few extra dollars to included that obvious contender. And then you spend a few more extra dollars in order to include the other obvious contenders that you had originally omitted. And then before you know it, your sixty-five dollar ticket is now close to two hundred dollars, if not more.
Hopefully, all the above makes sense. The bottom line is, once you go beyond the amount where you're just making a fun wager, it makes no sense to not then go all in to eliminate all the obvious events that would cause you to lose.
For the record, the ticket that I actually played Saturday was:
RACE 8) 6
RACE 9) 5, 6, 7
RACE 10) 3, 8, 9
RACE 11) 3, 9
RACE 12) 1, 3, 6, 7
RACE 13) 3, 11
Total Cost: $14.40. I didn't post it here because, by the time I made the final cuts, it was too close to Post Time for Race 8 to provide any real analysis. As you can see, I made the very foolish decision of dropping Dreaming of Julia from the Gulfstream Oaks; but it didn't matter, as the original ticket would have only yielded four-out-of-six winners anyway. Oh well, onto the next race.
Friday is the final day of the Gulfstream Park meet. Good Lord willing, I'll have something up here before Post Time; and by the Grace of The Almighty, it'll be something that will be worth having when the final race is over.
By the way, for those interested in learning more about playing the Pick Six, here and here are a couple of websites that can give you some good insights. Also be sure to check out Steven Crist's blog over at DRF.com, where he frequently discussed his Pick Six plays, and the strategies behind them.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday morning I worked out a Rainbow Six ticket that was in the nowhere man’s land of simultaneously being too expensive while also not offering enough coverage.
To clarify: I usually play Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six on the cheap, generally in the fifteen-to-twenty dollar range. I can do this because this is a ten cent wager at Gulfstream Park. If I were playing the Pick Six elsewhere, say, at a NYRA or SoCal venue, where the wager is two bucks, then these same tickets that cost twenty dollars at Gulfstream Park would cost four hundred dollars; which, by the way, is why I don’t play the two dollar Pick Sixes.
Playing the Rainbow Six for approximately fifteen-to-twenty dollars makes for a fun play because it gives enough coverage where you'll often get some action from the ticket, while at the same time not putting your whole gaming budget into one wager. But when you stray too far from that range, you find yourself an area where the wager has to payoff more than once a year in order to be profitable; which in turn means adding more horses (at more money) in order to get the coverage you would need to be satisfied with the wager.
For the record, and as an example, here’s the ticket that I was looking at Saturday:
RACE 8) 3, 5, 6
RACE 9) 5, 6, 7
RACE 10) 3, 8, 9
RACE 11) 3, 9
RACE 12) 1, 3, 6, 7
RACE 13) 3, 4, 11
Since these are Saturday's races, we already know the results; but let's try to put that aside for now, and put ourselves in a place prior to the running of the opening leg. What we're looking at is a $64.80 ticket (3 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 4 x 3 = 648 combinations; multiply that by ten cents to get the total cost; if this was a two dollar bet, the ticket would cost $1,296.00).
Now a $64.80 is well beyond our normal price range; but that's not the problem. The problem is that it's a $64.80 ticket that still has holes. For example, in Race 9, The Orchid, we're leaving out a Morning Line 5-1 shot that won The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf her last time out. In Race 10, we've left out another Morning Line 5-1 shot that's a multiple stakes winner, and is two-for-three over the Gulfstream Park main track. In Race 11, we've left out the horse with the best last race Beyer Speed Figure. In Race 12 we've left out one of only two horses in the field who actually had a win at the distance being run Saturday. And so on.
That’s a lot of holes.
Now, obviously, once the ticket was whittled down into a price range that I would play, it still didn't have any of those horses on my ticket; along with not having some other horses that I liked a lot more. That is to say, the final ticket had even more holes in it.
So why is that preferable?
The difference is, if I put in a twenty dollar ticket and the multiple stakes winner who's two-for-three over the main track beats me; oh well, onto the next race. But if I put in a sixty-five dollar ticket and get beat by that same horse, then it’s “how do you spend that much on a ticket and then not spend a few dollars more to include an obvious contender?” So realizing that ahead of time, you spend the few extra dollars to included that obvious contender. And then you spend a few more extra dollars in order to include the other obvious contenders that you had originally omitted. And then before you know it, your sixty-five dollar ticket is now close to two hundred dollars, if not more.
Hopefully, all the above makes sense. The bottom line is, once you go beyond the amount where you're just making a fun wager, it makes no sense to not then go all in to eliminate all the obvious events that would cause you to lose.
For the record, the ticket that I actually played Saturday was:
RACE 8) 6
RACE 9) 5, 6, 7
RACE 10) 3, 8, 9
RACE 11) 3, 9
RACE 12) 1, 3, 6, 7
RACE 13) 3, 11
Total Cost: $14.40. I didn't post it here because, by the time I made the final cuts, it was too close to Post Time for Race 8 to provide any real analysis. As you can see, I made the very foolish decision of dropping Dreaming of Julia from the Gulfstream Oaks; but it didn't matter, as the original ticket would have only yielded four-out-of-six winners anyway. Oh well, onto the next race.
Friday is the final day of the Gulfstream Park meet. Good Lord willing, I'll have something up here before Post Time; and by the Grace of The Almighty, it'll be something that will be worth having when the final race is over.
By the way, for those interested in learning more about playing the Pick Six, here and here are a couple of websites that can give you some good insights. Also be sure to check out Steven Crist's blog over at DRF.com, where he frequently discussed his Pick Six plays, and the strategies behind them.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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