Taking them one at a time:
RACE 7
# 2 Queen of Mambo (Morning Line 7-2) has just missed at this level (Alw N1X) twice, losing by a neck in each of her last two races. As that pair were two turns on the grass, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not her form will carry in today's contest, her first try on the synthetic.
# 4 Awesome Flower (ML 3-1) won a Claiming Race (Clm $30K N2L) her last time out with a Beyer Speed Figure that's slightly better than par for this level of competition; her Beyer the race prior was even better.
# 5 Clear Danger (ML 10-1) just missed at this level at this distance over this track back in October, three races back. This will be her first start on a synthetic surface since that event.
RACE 8 - THE GIANT'S CAUSEWAY
# 2 Extravaganza (ML 5-1) comes off a win in the Happy Ticket Stakes at Fair Grounds with a Beyer that ties for best last-out in this field. Extravaganza should do much better today than she did in this event last year.
# 5 Sensible Lady (ML 4-1) has multiple wins at this level, and has never finished out of the Trifecta in a turf sprint. She's coming off a long layoff, but that didn't stop her last year as she won the first time off the bench after a greater than four month vacation.
# 9 Sweet Cassiopeia (ML 5-2) ties with Extravaganza for best last-out Beyer, having earned hers in an Allowance Race where she crossed the wire a neck in front of odds-on favorite Stopshoppingmaria. Sweet Cassiopeai's Beyer was even better in her victory in the race before that one, which would prove to be a key race (that is, a race in which more than one of the entrants would go on to win their next race). Sweet Cassiopeia has yet to finish out of the Exacta on the grass.
RACE 9 - THE LEXINGTON
# 11 Pure Fun (ML 7-2) is the girl taking on the boys. More importantly, she's the Grade 1 winner in an event that has no other Graded Stakes winners. She's much improved since moving off the grass, and that Grade 1 victory was earned on a synthetic surface.
RACE 10
# 3 Suyeta (ML 3-1) drops back to a level more in line with his ability, after finishing fourth in a $20k Optional Claimer with a Beyer (81) that should be good enough to win this event today. Suyeta is three-for-six on the Keeneland main track, two-for-three at today's distance, and will have Rosario on board for the ride.
# 9 Ghost Chapel (ML 5-1) won at this level last time out, but with a Beyer below par for this level.
I still think The Lexington is wide open; and the finale needs some spreading as well. But I'm going to try to go cheap here, and see if I can get by with three singles as A's, and then go heavy on the C's. Here's the Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing, beginning with the all A's:
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Play that one for $2.50, and it'll cost you $5.00.
Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $0.50
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
RACE 10: 3
Total Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 9
RACE 9: 11
RACE 10: 2, 8, 9
Total Cost: $3.00
Total Cost of Pick Four Tickets: $19.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:11 EDT / 1:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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