Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

We're almost there!  Just a few more days until the biggest race of the year.  So you all know what that means, right?  Yup; as I promised in my very first post, this blog will now go dark.

Well, maybe not totally dark.  I downloaded the Google blogger app, so if I can get it to work properly, I will take time prior to Saturday's big race to let you know my selection.  I doubt if there'll be a lengthy analysis attached; in fact, odds are there won't be any analysis attached; but at least you'll know where the bulk of my money is going.

At this time (now that Code West is officially out) the only horse I have any rooting interest in is Golden Cents; and that only because I think it would be incredibly cool if a horse I touted right after his debut would go on to win the Kentucky Derby.  But sentiment aside, here're the things I'll be looking for in my Derby selection:

BREEDING:  Can he go the ten furlongs?  Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest.  Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) .  And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.

BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them.  Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.

POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two.  Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.

TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races!  In fact, watch Friday's races as well.  If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.

FINALLY - ENJOY!  This is the biggest race of the year.  Take in all the excitement, and be sure to have some fun; 'cos, like Christmas, it only comes but once a year.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo