4/27/13 Churchill Down Races 9 & 10 - Preview

As I type this the track is fast and the turf is good for Churchill Downs on Opening Night; but the forecast still calls for thunderstorms.  So no Pick Four analysis tonight, as I have no idea when the rains will come.

I am liking # 3 Horned Frog (ML 9-5) in Race 9; he just missed at this level his last time out at Keeneland.  Horned Frog is two-for-three on the Churchill Downs main track, and has always finished in the Exacta (two Wins and two Places) whenever he's tried tonight's distance.  The last four times Horned Frog has run on the dirt, his Beyer Speed Figures have been 83 / 85 / 84 / 81, which is approximately what it takes to win at this level.

I also think # 2 Gallant Pleasure (ML 5-1) rates an upset chance in Race 9; it's just a question of whether his last outing was a fluke, or an injury.  Gallant Pleasure won at this level at tonight's distance two back with an 85 Beyer; if he can return to that form, he just might get his picture taken when the race is over.

Gotta respect the Baffert with the triple digit Beyer (Zee Bros, ML 5-2) in Race 10, the Derby Trial;  but that race looks like a closer's dream; in which case I like # 4 Forty Tales (3-1) best, with a little # 6 Capo Bastone (ML 5-1) and # 1 Officer Alex (ML 8-1) tossed in.

If we stick with just a Race 9 / Race 10 Double, we could do something like this:

$5 DBL 3 / 3, 4

$2 DBL 3 / 1, 6

$1 DBL 2 / 1, 3, 4, 6

Total Cost: $18

Post time for Race 9 @ Churchill Downs is 10:11 EDT / 7:11 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo