Race 7 - # 10 Disco Cat (Final Odds 48.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 English Dancer (2.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Amuse (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Apache Princess (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Indicative of how Sunday's play went for me was the fact that the only "A" Selection which I got home came in the leg in which I used the most runners. Certainly not the way in which I planned to finish 2018.
Oh well; onto the next race.
And year.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 10 / 4 / 7 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,601.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 30, 2018
12/30/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
And so we arrive at the penultimate day of 2018; and allow me please at this point to interject a programming note of sorts. While there will be racing at Santa Anita on Monday, New Year's Eve (First Race Post Time 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST) there will be no new blog post from me on Monday. However, good Lord willing there will be commentary here from me for Tuesday, New Year's Day (First Race Post Time 3:00 EST / 12:00 PST); so update your spreadsheets accordingly. And with that out of the way, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Md $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 On the Right (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Arno's Mane Man (ML 5-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 2 Jimmy the Bull (ML 30-1)
# 3 Serve Me a Double (ML 5-1)
# 5 Conversate (ML 12-1)
# 7 Captain N. Barron (ML 6-1)
# 8 Santa Fe Blaze (ML 15-1)
# 10 Disco Cat (ML 15-1)
# 11 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
On the Right returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. Arno's Mane Man could move up with the class drop and the return to real dirt. Emotional Ride looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Cordiality (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
RACE 7 - Md $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 On the Right (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Arno's Mane Man (ML 5-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 2 Jimmy the Bull (ML 30-1)
# 3 Serve Me a Double (ML 5-1)
# 5 Conversate (ML 12-1)
# 7 Captain N. Barron (ML 6-1)
# 8 Santa Fe Blaze (ML 15-1)
# 10 Disco Cat (ML 15-1)
# 11 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
On the Right returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. Arno's Mane Man could move up with the class drop and the return to real dirt. Emotional Ride looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Cordiality (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Cheekaboo (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 4 English Dancer (ML 4-1)
# 5 Jazaalah (ML 15-1)
# 3 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 4 English Dancer (ML 4-1)
# 5 Jazaalah (ML 15-1)
# 6 Lightning Dove (ML 15-1)
# 7 Tammy's Window (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tammy's Window (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 9 One Fast Broad (ML 10-1)
# 10 Lemoona (ML 6-1)
# 10 Lemoona (ML 6-1)
As is often the case with these Optional Claiming contests, the field is filled with many who have proven that they can hit the board at this class level. It would therefore be quite understandable to go deep in this leg. However, I decided to go in the opposite direction, making Cordiality a big ticket single Sunday. I think Cordiality will be quick enough to obtain an easy lead against this lot; and I think Cordiality can be considered a specialist at the eight furlong distance. So for this leg it's Cordiality as a big ticket solo act, with the rest of the field backing her up as "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Amuse (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Uppercut (ML 5-1)
# 6 Zusha (ML 8-1)
# 9 Family Girl (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dulce Ride (ML 7-2)
# 10 Dulce Ride (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Media Tone (ML 30-1)
# 2 Todos Santos (ML 50-1)
# 2 Todos Santos (ML 50-1)
# 4 Spend Spend Spend (ML 5-1)
# 5 Exuberance (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oozie (ML 8-1)
Amuse could rebound going third off the layoff after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out. The added distance could also work to the benefit of Amuse.
Uppercut returns off the extended vacation, and could return to the form that she showed while taking the Show in the Grade 3 Beaumont behind Gas Station Sushi two starts back. Zusha and Family Girl fit well at this class level. Dulce Ride should be forwardly placed early. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Harmless (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Gallantlystreaming (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Posit (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mind for Mischief (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Gemagine (ML 6-1)
# 3 Apache Princess (ML 7-2)
# 4 Haughty Girl (ML 15-1)
# 7 Kittyhawk Lass (ML 15-1)
# 9 Unicorn (ML 6-1)
# 11 Twinkle Dream (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Acadia Fleet (ML 15-1)
Harmless ran well, if somewhat evenly, in her debut last time out. Gallantlystreaming (Ire) missed graduation by just a length sprinting on the Del Mar turf last time out. Posit seems well bred for her first try on the grass. Mind for Mischief is a debut runner who could do well against a field that seems to lack a standout. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 7 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6,9 with 2 with 3,6,7,9,10 with 1,5,6,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,10,11 with 2 with 7 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 7 with 10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 7 with 2,3,4,7,9,11 $3.00
Total: $45.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:03 EDT / 3:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 29, 2018
12/29/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 12 Gleyber (Final Odds 6.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The American Oaks - # 8 Competitionofideas (5.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Macwinnon (2.90) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Madaket Sunset (4.00) - "B" Selection
Of the three "C" Selections that got their picture taken in the final four contests Saturday, the only one I gave serious consideration to including on the big ticket was Macwinnon; though I probably should have given more thought to giving the class dropping Gleyber more prominence in my play. But Competitionofideas? Yes, I know she's trained by Chad Brown; but I also know that Competitionofideas had never won even a Listed Stakes prior to Saturday; while the American Oaks field contained multiple Graded Stakes winners. But no matter, except perhaps as something to recall for another day; for regardless of the result of that leg, Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 12 / 8 / 7 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $566.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The American Oaks - # 8 Competitionofideas (5.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Macwinnon (2.90) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Madaket Sunset (4.00) - "B" Selection
Of the three "C" Selections that got their picture taken in the final four contests Saturday, the only one I gave serious consideration to including on the big ticket was Macwinnon; though I probably should have given more thought to giving the class dropping Gleyber more prominence in my play. But Competitionofideas? Yes, I know she's trained by Chad Brown; but I also know that Competitionofideas had never won even a Listed Stakes prior to Saturday; while the American Oaks field contained multiple Graded Stakes winners. But no matter, except perhaps as something to recall for another day; for regardless of the result of that leg, Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 12 / 8 / 7 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $566.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/29/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It Opening Weekend for the Santa Anita Winter / Spring / Summer Meet, which began as per tradition on Boxing Day and will continue on until June 24, 2019. Incidentally, there is something new this go round on the Santa Anita wagering menu, that being Horse Racing Roulette. Briefly, this is a parimutuel Win wager grouping all entrants in any race with a field of six or more into one of three categories (Red, Black, or Green). Those looking for full details are encouraged to click the link above; though I will point out that it appears that the only ADW which is offering this Horse Racing Roulette wager at the present time is the Stronach owned Xpressbet.com (if there are others, please let us know in the comments).
Getting back to the business at hand, Saturday's featured race is the Grade 1 American Oaks, giving three year old fillies one last shot at each other before they all turn four on Tuesday. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Violent Behavior (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 4 Shake N Fries (ML 8-1)
# 6 Do Something Easy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Silent Alarm (ML 5-1)
#10 Redrock Trail (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Tanker (ML 12-1)
# 5 Bachchan (ML 10-1)
# 7 Anvil Rock (ML 20-1)
# 8 Samurai Jack (ML 12-1)
# 12 Gleyber (ML 6-1)
# 13 Bull Fighter (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Thin Line (No Line) and # 2 Royal Aspiration (ML 15-1)
Violent Behavior and Silent Alarm both disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in separate contests last time out. Shake N Fries and Redrock Trail are two that could rebound to efforts two starts back, as they are both going third off the layoff. Do Something Easy is a second time starter for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Californiagoldrush (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Paved (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Colonia (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 3 K P Pergoliscious (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Amandine (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Princess Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 7 Retro (ML 30-1)
# 8 Competitionofideas (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 1 Kodiak West (Ire) (NL)
No real surprise here as I like the top two contenders. I was very tempted to cut Paved from the big ticket; but ultimately I decided not to make Californiagoldrush a big ticket single because she's never traveled this distance before, and also because Californiagoldrush may need a race off the layoff. All others in the field are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kid Cantina (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Mayan Warrior (ML 5-1)
# 8 Oracle of Omaha (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Damiano (ML 5-1)
# 4 Runningwithscissors (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mad Mike (ML 10-1)
# 7 Macwinnon (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 6 I Belong to Becky (ML 6-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Getting back to the business at hand, Saturday's featured race is the Grade 1 American Oaks, giving three year old fillies one last shot at each other before they all turn four on Tuesday. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Violent Behavior (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 4 Shake N Fries (ML 8-1)
# 6 Do Something Easy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Silent Alarm (ML 5-1)
#10 Redrock Trail (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Tanker (ML 12-1)
# 5 Bachchan (ML 10-1)
# 7 Anvil Rock (ML 20-1)
# 8 Samurai Jack (ML 12-1)
# 12 Gleyber (ML 6-1)
# 13 Bull Fighter (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Thin Line (No Line) and # 2 Royal Aspiration (ML 15-1)
Violent Behavior and Silent Alarm both disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in separate contests last time out. Shake N Fries and Redrock Trail are two that could rebound to efforts two starts back, as they are both going third off the layoff. Do Something Easy is a second time starter for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Californiagoldrush (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Paved (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Colonia (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 3 K P Pergoliscious (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Amandine (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Princess Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 7 Retro (ML 30-1)
# 8 Competitionofideas (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 1 Kodiak West (Ire) (NL)
No real surprise here as I like the top two contenders. I was very tempted to cut Paved from the big ticket; but ultimately I decided not to make Californiagoldrush a big ticket single because she's never traveled this distance before, and also because Californiagoldrush may need a race off the layoff. All others in the field are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kid Cantina (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Mayan Warrior (ML 5-1)
# 8 Oracle of Omaha (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Damiano (ML 5-1)
# 4 Runningwithscissors (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mad Mike (ML 10-1)
# 7 Macwinnon (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 6 I Belong to Becky (ML 6-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Kid Cantina and Mayan Warrior should both benefit from their respective class drops. Oracle of Omaha won impressively in his first non-turf start. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Strengthinnumbers (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Storming Lady (ML 3-1)
# 5 Cat's Desire (ML 20-1)
# 11 Madaket Sunset (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Fuega (ML 20-1)
# 2 Baladera (ML 12-1)
# 4 Beyond Pleasure (ML 10-1)
# 6 Etching (ML 10-1)
# 7 Breezy Bee (ML 6-1)
# 8 Grey Tsunami (ML 50-1)
# 9 Weather Market (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 12 Coldwater (ML 15-1)
Strengthinnumbers should improve with the class drop coupled with the return to the Santa Anita Hill. Storming Lady has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but perhaps the return to Arcadia will finally get Storming Lady to the winner's circle.
Cat's Desire drops in for a tag after running evenly in her debut last time out. Madaket Sunset closed well in her only prior start charging down the hill. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 9 with 3 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6,9,10,11 with 6,9 with 2,3,8 with 3,5,10,11 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,8,12,13 with 9 with 3 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 with 3 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 9 with 1,4,5,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 9 with 3 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,9 $3.50
Total: $72.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Merry Christmas!
“Christmas is a tonic for our souls. It moves us to think of others rather than of ourselves. It directs our thoughts to giving.” - B.C. Forbes
Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire. Merry Christmas!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire. Merry Christmas!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 23, 2018
12/23/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 7 Dianka (Final Odds 7.50) - via DQ* - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Zambora (2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Meet'n On High (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Most Determined (2.00) - "B" Selection
* # 6 Stella Malone (0.70*) crossed under the wire first in Race 5 but was disqualified and placed 2nd
The bright spot in Sunday's preview was that I was correct in predicting that the nightcap would devolve into a chaos race, as the winner was 15-1 on the Morning Line. However, the contest wasn't nearly as confusing to the betting public as it was to me, as that 15-1 longshot on the Morning Line was bet down to 2-1. Be that as it may, when all was said and done, had "B" Selection and Show finisher # 7 Arizona Ry (3.30) gotten to the line a half length quicker in Race 6, the play would have been a winner. But he didn't; and for that and other reasons Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $192.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 3 Zambora (2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Meet'n On High (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Most Determined (2.00) - "B" Selection
* # 6 Stella Malone (0.70*) crossed under the wire first in Race 5 but was disqualified and placed 2nd
The bright spot in Sunday's preview was that I was correct in predicting that the nightcap would devolve into a chaos race, as the winner was 15-1 on the Morning Line. However, the contest wasn't nearly as confusing to the betting public as it was to me, as that 15-1 longshot on the Morning Line was bet down to 2-1. Be that as it may, when all was said and done, had "B" Selection and Show finisher # 7 Arizona Ry (3.30) gotten to the line a half length quicker in Race 6, the play would have been a winner. But he didn't; and for that and other reasons Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $192.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/23/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Sunday; it's Christmas Eve Eve; and that's all I've got by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Stella Malone (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Dawn Traveler (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Dianka (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shy (ML 8-1)
# 2 Put It On Ice (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cherokee Louise (ML 10-1)
# 5 Miss Shirley C (ML 3-1)
There are no Arizona breds in this contest; but if there were, you would have to pay and extra five grand to claim them.
This one looks like Stella Malone early and either Dawn Traveler (Ire) or Dianka late. Stella Malone is quick enough where it's certainly tempting to just make her a big ticket single and hope that she doesn't get caught. But Miss Shirley C looks like she could hang with Stella Malone early and soften her up for the late comers. So I'm going three deep on the big ticket here, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Parking Permit (ML 1-1)
B's
# 7 Arizona Ry (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Havasu Caution (ML 20-1)
# 2 Dimera (ML 12-1)
# 3 Zambora (ML 9-5)
# 4 Mr Dejavu (ML 20-1)
# 5 Rogelio (ML 10-1)
# 6 Gypsy's Goal (ML 12-1)
Arizona breds cost more in this contest; so if you want to claim Dimera, Mr Dejavu, or Arizona Ry, you'll have to pay $10k instead of the $8k that the others are in for.
Zambora ships into Arizona after making his debut last time out at Golden Gate; and if it wouldn't blow up the budget, I'd probably would put Zambora on the big ticket because of the class drop. On the other hand, if I wanted to save even more money, I could just make Parking Permit a big ticket single. But Arizona Ry has shown some good early speed against classier competition; so onto the big ticket Arizona Ry goes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Meet'n On High (ML 6-5)
B’s
# 7 No One Told Me (ML 3-1)
C's
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Stella Malone (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Dawn Traveler (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Dianka (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shy (ML 8-1)
# 2 Put It On Ice (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cherokee Louise (ML 10-1)
# 5 Miss Shirley C (ML 3-1)
There are no Arizona breds in this contest; but if there were, you would have to pay and extra five grand to claim them.
This one looks like Stella Malone early and either Dawn Traveler (Ire) or Dianka late. Stella Malone is quick enough where it's certainly tempting to just make her a big ticket single and hope that she doesn't get caught. But Miss Shirley C looks like she could hang with Stella Malone early and soften her up for the late comers. So I'm going three deep on the big ticket here, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Parking Permit (ML 1-1)
B's
# 7 Arizona Ry (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Havasu Caution (ML 20-1)
# 2 Dimera (ML 12-1)
# 3 Zambora (ML 9-5)
# 4 Mr Dejavu (ML 20-1)
# 5 Rogelio (ML 10-1)
# 6 Gypsy's Goal (ML 12-1)
Arizona breds cost more in this contest; so if you want to claim Dimera, Mr Dejavu, or Arizona Ry, you'll have to pay $10k instead of the $8k that the others are in for.
Zambora ships into Arizona after making his debut last time out at Golden Gate; and if it wouldn't blow up the budget, I'd probably would put Zambora on the big ticket because of the class drop. On the other hand, if I wanted to save even more money, I could just make Parking Permit a big ticket single. But Arizona Ry has shown some good early speed against classier competition; so onto the big ticket Arizona Ry goes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Meet'n On High (ML 6-5)
B’s
# 7 No One Told Me (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 P. Sue (ML 20-1)
# 2 S S Taylor (ML 8-1)
# 2 S S Taylor (ML 8-1)
# 3 Blazin On By (ML 5-2)
# 4 Hit'n Time (ML 12-1)
# 5 End Zone Embrace (ML 20-1)
# 8 My Last Penny (ML 30-1)
# 4 Hit'n Time (ML 12-1)
# 5 End Zone Embrace (ML 20-1)
# 8 My Last Penny (ML 30-1)
No extra money needed to claim an Arizona bred in this contest; so if you're looking to purchase Hit'n Time, it'll cost you the same $3.5k that all the other entrants cost.
Meet'n On High won by daylight last time out in her first start outside California. No One Told Me won by the length of the stretch in her debut two starts back, and seems to have been working well for her return to competition. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $8.5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Chaska (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Most Determined (ML 15-1)
# 2 Seeking Bea (ML 20-1)
# 3 Oldtimers Vision (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ride Hard Kowboy (ML 9-5)
# 4 Ride Hard Kowboy (ML 9-5)
# 6 Dreamcatcher (ML 10-1)
# 7 Oh Newman (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dare to Enter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Oh Newman (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dare to Enter (ML 4-1)
C's
None
This contest is restricted to horses that have either not won two races since June 23, 2018 or which have never won four races in their career. Note that races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count towards either total. For the record, Most Determined, Seeking Bea, and Dare to Enter are the three runners in this field with fewer than four victories. Also note that Arizona breds would cost an extra $1.5k to claim if there were any in the field; but there aren't.
Chaska won at this level last time out, and it would be quite understandable if one was to make Chaska a big ticket single here. However, I decided to go in the opposite direction. I think that Chaska is going to face a lot more early pressure today than he did last time out; and while he might still win, I think that the probability of an early pace meltdown is high enough to go with the possibility that this could turn into a chaos race. So everyone into the pool!
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,7 with 7,8 with 6,7 with ALL $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5 with 8 with 6 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 6 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 5 $3.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:44 EST / 1:44 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 22, 2018
12/22/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 2 Kalsa (Final Odds 0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 1 Dynamic Response (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Highsnobity (5.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Wally's Got Class (4.00) - "C" Selection
Did I come close to catching The Late Pick Four Saturday? Well, perhaps; if you use a very generous definition of close. Had my "A" Selection in either the third or fourth leg come through, then, yes, I would have cashed instead of trashed my tickets. But while both of my "A" Selections took the Place in their respective contests, neither one really threatened the winner at the wire; as the two finished a combined nine lengths in back of the victor.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Toccet's Charm (2.90*) - $43.75 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 1 / 4 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $49.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 1 Dynamic Response (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Highsnobity (5.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Wally's Got Class (4.00) - "C" Selection
Did I come close to catching The Late Pick Four Saturday? Well, perhaps; if you use a very generous definition of close. Had my "A" Selection in either the third or fourth leg come through, then, yes, I would have cashed instead of trashed my tickets. But while both of my "A" Selections took the Place in their respective contests, neither one really threatened the winner at the wire; as the two finished a combined nine lengths in back of the victor.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Toccet's Charm (2.90*) - $43.75 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 1 / 4 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $49.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/22/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the weekend before Christmas, and there's no thoroughbred racing in California. And I was certainly tempted to just give myself a weekend off; but what fun is that? So as I did last weekend, I'm taking my action to Arizona, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $5k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Kalsa (Morning Line 4-5)
B's
# 7 Windi's Moment (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Misterkaplan (ML 4-1)
# 3 Sister Sienna (ML 6-1)
# 4 Scott for Her (ML 20-1)
# 5 Faith in Excess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Grinanbareit (ML 20-1)
# 8 Miss Dilly Dally (ML 20-1)
Note that the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is $6.25k. At least, it would be if there were any Arizona breds in this contest.
Kalsa took the Show last time out in her first race outside Southern California. Windi's Moment took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - Alw 3500s - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dynamic Response (ML 6-5)
B’s
# 3 Kickenit (ML 5-1)
# 5 Passed Due (ML 12-1)
# 6 Norm's Place (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Packy's Out (ML 6-1)
# 4 Brilliant Mike (ML 15-1)
# 7 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 8 Cheap O Charlie (ML 15-1)
This is almost a typical Starter Allowance, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $3.5k or less either this year or last is eligible to run here. But there is a catch: a runner must be winless on the grass in order to be entered in this contest. All these entrants are turf maidens.
Dynamic Response was within a length of the winner at the wire on this turf course at this class level last time out, with Kickenit taking the Show behind him. Passed Due and Norm's Place were also in that contest; and while Passed Due and Norm's Place both finished well back last time out, they have both run well on the turf in the past. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Wacky Jackie (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 10 Heartofthetemple (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Jazz Night (ML 15-1)
# 4 Highsnobity (ML 12-1)
# 5 Kolocha (ML 10-1)
# 7 Nang Noi (ML 5-1)
# 8 Offended (ML 30-1)
# 9 Show Me Bofum (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 One Hot Navigator (ML 6-1)
EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Lunar Party (ML 15-1)
No higher price tag in this race for Arizona breds. Wacky Jackie and Heartofthetemple both disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in separate contests while taking the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $3k N2Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Toccet's Charm (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sir Matador (ML 6-1)
# 10 Three Padres (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Deputy Command (ML 20-1)
# 4 Wally's Got Class (ML 6-1)
# 5 Fort Cady (ML 5-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 20-1)
# 8 Purple Sky (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 2 Hat in the Ring (ML 20-1) and # 9 American League (ML 3-1)
This contest is restricted to horses that have not won two races since June 22, 2018; but races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count. Also note that, as with Race 7 above, Arizona breds are up for sale for the same claiming price as all the other entrants.
Toccet's Charm and Sir Matador filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Three Padres could rebound to a better effort going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,3,5,6 with 3,10 with 3,6,10 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 1 with 3 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7,8 with 3 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,4,5,7,8,9 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $35.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:44 EST / 1:44 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - (F) Md $5k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Kalsa (Morning Line 4-5)
B's
# 7 Windi's Moment (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Misterkaplan (ML 4-1)
# 3 Sister Sienna (ML 6-1)
# 4 Scott for Her (ML 20-1)
# 5 Faith in Excess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Grinanbareit (ML 20-1)
# 8 Miss Dilly Dally (ML 20-1)
Note that the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is $6.25k. At least, it would be if there were any Arizona breds in this contest.
Kalsa took the Show last time out in her first race outside Southern California. Windi's Moment took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - Alw 3500s - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dynamic Response (ML 6-5)
B’s
# 3 Kickenit (ML 5-1)
# 5 Passed Due (ML 12-1)
# 6 Norm's Place (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Packy's Out (ML 6-1)
# 4 Brilliant Mike (ML 15-1)
# 7 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 8 Cheap O Charlie (ML 15-1)
This is almost a typical Starter Allowance, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $3.5k or less either this year or last is eligible to run here. But there is a catch: a runner must be winless on the grass in order to be entered in this contest. All these entrants are turf maidens.
Dynamic Response was within a length of the winner at the wire on this turf course at this class level last time out, with Kickenit taking the Show behind him. Passed Due and Norm's Place were also in that contest; and while Passed Due and Norm's Place both finished well back last time out, they have both run well on the turf in the past. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Wacky Jackie (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 10 Heartofthetemple (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Jazz Night (ML 15-1)
# 4 Highsnobity (ML 12-1)
# 5 Kolocha (ML 10-1)
# 7 Nang Noi (ML 5-1)
# 8 Offended (ML 30-1)
# 9 Show Me Bofum (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 One Hot Navigator (ML 6-1)
EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Lunar Party (ML 15-1)
No higher price tag in this race for Arizona breds. Wacky Jackie and Heartofthetemple both disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in separate contests while taking the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $3k N2Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Toccet's Charm (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sir Matador (ML 6-1)
# 10 Three Padres (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Deputy Command (ML 20-1)
# 4 Wally's Got Class (ML 6-1)
# 5 Fort Cady (ML 5-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 20-1)
# 8 Purple Sky (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 2 Hat in the Ring (ML 20-1) and # 9 American League (ML 3-1)
This contest is restricted to horses that have not won two races since June 22, 2018; but races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count. Also note that, as with Race 7 above, Arizona breds are up for sale for the same claiming price as all the other entrants.
Toccet's Charm and Sir Matador filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Three Padres could rebound to a better effort going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,3,5,6 with 3,10 with 3,6,10 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 1 with 3 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7,8 with 3 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,4,5,7,8,9 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $35.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:44 EST / 1:44 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 16, 2018
12/16/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 1 All Trumped Up (Final Odds 1.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Maddymax (1.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Appellant (4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Pete's Stew (2.20*) - "A" Selection
I was right to be cautious about # 7 Play Nice (1.60*) in the second leg, as evidenced by her seventh place finish; so good for me. However, not including Maddymax on the big ticket in that same leg was a terrible blunder, as Maddymax fit a well known pattern of finishing in the Trifecta off a layoff, regressing in her second start off said layoff, and then rebounding Sunday in her third start off the vacation. So I made a mistake and it cost me, as Sunday became a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $93.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 4 Maddymax (1.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Appellant (4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Pete's Stew (2.20*) - "A" Selection
I was right to be cautious about # 7 Play Nice (1.60*) in the second leg, as evidenced by her seventh place finish; so good for me. However, not including Maddymax on the big ticket in that same leg was a terrible blunder, as Maddymax fit a well known pattern of finishing in the Trifecta off a layoff, regressing in her second start off said layoff, and then rebounding Sunday in her third start off the vacation. So I made a mistake and it cost me, as Sunday became a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $93.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/16/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Sunday, and unlike yesterday a distaff contest has made its way into the final four races in Arizona. And that's all I have by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - Clm $8.5k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gee for Three (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 1 All Trumped Up (ML 8-5)
# 7 Thorny Issue (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Sneaky Meek (ML 10-1)
# 5 A. F. Indy (ML 6-1)
# 6 His Way (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Giro Candito (ML 5-1)
An interesting note is that it costs an extra fifteen hundred dollars to claim All Trumped Up in this contest, because he's an Arizona bred. Gee for Three and the aforementioned All Trumped Up filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Thorny Issue missed the winner's circle by a neck at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Play Nice (ML 6-5)
B's
# 5 Heartwrecker (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Right to the Point (ML 10-1)
# 2 Tinderette (ML 6-1)
# 3 Aikaman's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 4 Maddymax (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coastal Curves (ML 15-1)
# 8 Red Storm Rising (ML 30-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies or mares which have either:
1) Not won a race since September 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $3k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race. If a filly or mare has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 9/16/2018 in order for her to be entered here. For the record, Red Storm Rising is the only entrant here that has visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is five grand rather than four; but since there are no Arizona breds running in this race, that really doesn't matter.
Play Nice should probably be a big ticket single here; but I tend to be cautious when a runner is switching barns to a trainer with a lower winning percentage. So I'm doubling the cost of my big ticket by including Heartwrecker, who took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Clm $15k N3L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Kona Dreams (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 6 Appellant (ML 4-1)
# 7 So Be It (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Peacock Cowboy (ML 5-1)
# 3 First to the Wire (ML 15-1)
# 4 C C Express (ML 6-1)
# 5 Hustle and Bustle (ML 8-1)
The conditions allow that you can trade claiming price for weight; every two pounds shed will lower the price tag on your runner by twenty-five hundred; but you can't go lower than a claiming price of ten grand. First to the Wire is the only entrant here to take that option; so First to the Wire will carry 118 pounds in exchange for being on the market for $10k. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds is $20k here; but there are no Arizona breds here.
Kona Dreams ships in from California and should appreciate the class relief. Jockeys Scott Stevens and Francisco Arrieta look to be the most successful turf riders on this circuit; so their runners (Appellant and So Be It, respectively) go on the big ticket as well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $3k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Pete's Slew (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Unbridled Venture (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hidden Gun (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rosat (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 K L S Forty Three (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nicolas Cajun (ML 20-1)
# 6 Valentine Party (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bases Loaded (ML 10-1)
# 11 Mo Rock (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Tale of Beaucette (ML 7-2); # 5 Duplicate Copy (ML 20-1); and # 12 Triunfo (ML 20-1). Bring in Mo Rock off the Also Eligible List.
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since June 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 6/16/2018 in order for him to be entered here. For the record, Nicolas Cajun and Rosat are the only entrants here that have visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is the same as it is for everyone else; so if you want to buy Arizona breds Hidden Gun or Mo Rock, it will cost you the same three grand that all the other entrants cost.
Pete's Slew could move up with the class drop. Unbridled Venture fits well here on class, though Unbridled Venture may need a race off the layoff. Conversely, Hidden Gun could be ready to roll off the extended vacation, as Trainer Edward Kereluk tends to do well with such.
Rosat is trying to make it two in a row while moving up in class; Trainer Eliazar Salas is often successful when placing his last out winners. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 5,7 with 2,6,7 with 1,7,9,10 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 1,3,4,5 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 2,3,6,8,11 $2.50
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:40 EST / 1:40 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - Clm $8.5k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gee for Three (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 1 All Trumped Up (ML 8-5)
# 7 Thorny Issue (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Sneaky Meek (ML 10-1)
# 5 A. F. Indy (ML 6-1)
# 6 His Way (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Giro Candito (ML 5-1)
An interesting note is that it costs an extra fifteen hundred dollars to claim All Trumped Up in this contest, because he's an Arizona bred. Gee for Three and the aforementioned All Trumped Up filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Thorny Issue missed the winner's circle by a neck at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Play Nice (ML 6-5)
B's
# 5 Heartwrecker (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Right to the Point (ML 10-1)
# 2 Tinderette (ML 6-1)
# 3 Aikaman's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 4 Maddymax (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coastal Curves (ML 15-1)
# 8 Red Storm Rising (ML 30-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies or mares which have either:
1) Not won a race since September 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $3k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race. If a filly or mare has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 9/16/2018 in order for her to be entered here. For the record, Red Storm Rising is the only entrant here that has visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is five grand rather than four; but since there are no Arizona breds running in this race, that really doesn't matter.
Play Nice should probably be a big ticket single here; but I tend to be cautious when a runner is switching barns to a trainer with a lower winning percentage. So I'm doubling the cost of my big ticket by including Heartwrecker, who took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Clm $15k N3L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Kona Dreams (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 6 Appellant (ML 4-1)
# 7 So Be It (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Peacock Cowboy (ML 5-1)
# 3 First to the Wire (ML 15-1)
# 4 C C Express (ML 6-1)
# 5 Hustle and Bustle (ML 8-1)
The conditions allow that you can trade claiming price for weight; every two pounds shed will lower the price tag on your runner by twenty-five hundred; but you can't go lower than a claiming price of ten grand. First to the Wire is the only entrant here to take that option; so First to the Wire will carry 118 pounds in exchange for being on the market for $10k. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds is $20k here; but there are no Arizona breds here.
Kona Dreams ships in from California and should appreciate the class relief. Jockeys Scott Stevens and Francisco Arrieta look to be the most successful turf riders on this circuit; so their runners (Appellant and So Be It, respectively) go on the big ticket as well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $3k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Pete's Slew (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Unbridled Venture (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hidden Gun (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rosat (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 K L S Forty Three (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nicolas Cajun (ML 20-1)
# 6 Valentine Party (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bases Loaded (ML 10-1)
# 11 Mo Rock (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Tale of Beaucette (ML 7-2); # 5 Duplicate Copy (ML 20-1); and # 12 Triunfo (ML 20-1). Bring in Mo Rock off the Also Eligible List.
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since June 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 6/16/2018 in order for him to be entered here. For the record, Nicolas Cajun and Rosat are the only entrants here that have visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is the same as it is for everyone else; so if you want to buy Arizona breds Hidden Gun or Mo Rock, it will cost you the same three grand that all the other entrants cost.
Pete's Slew could move up with the class drop. Unbridled Venture fits well here on class, though Unbridled Venture may need a race off the layoff. Conversely, Hidden Gun could be ready to roll off the extended vacation, as Trainer Edward Kereluk tends to do well with such.
Rosat is trying to make it two in a row while moving up in class; Trainer Eliazar Salas is often successful when placing his last out winners. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 5,7 with 2,6,7 with 1,7,9,10 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 1,3,4,5 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 2,3,6,8,11 $2.50
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:40 EST / 1:40 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 15, 2018
12/15/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 2 Levitation (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 10 Batti Man (Arg) (4.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Cleanup Hitter (11.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Put Your Pants On (3.90) - "B" Selection
In the third leg, "A" Selection # 1 Bourque (3.40) out-battled "B" Selection # 6 Wise Curlin (2.70*) through the early going to obtain a solid two and a half length lead in the stretch; but Bourque's defense wasn't solid enough, as he couldn't keep Cleanup Hitter from getting past him and scoring the win in Race 7.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 7 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $465.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 10 Batti Man (Arg) (4.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Cleanup Hitter (11.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Put Your Pants On (3.90) - "B" Selection
In the third leg, "A" Selection # 1 Bourque (3.40) out-battled "B" Selection # 6 Wise Curlin (2.70*) through the early going to obtain a solid two and a half length lead in the stretch; but Bourque's defense wasn't solid enough, as he couldn't keep Cleanup Hitter from getting past him and scoring the win in Race 7.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 7 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $465.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/15/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview
So Golden Gate is done until Boxing Day, and I'm still priced out of Los Alamitos. So what to do? Well, a nice rest is certainly a very tempting possibility; and I may choose to explore that option next weekend. But for the next two days I decided to shift my action one time zone to the east. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - OC 16k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Levitation (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 7 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fire the Trainer (ML 5-1)
# 3 La Waun (ML 7-2)
# 4 London Legacy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Blow My Mind (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sure Sweet (ML 12-1)
Levitation could improve with the return to the main track, and there should be enough pace here for Levitation to chase. Satellite Storm ran quite well in his contest over this main track last time out, and Satellite Storm projects to be forwardly placed.
London Legacy certainly deserves consideration here; but ultimately I decided that his effort last time out combined with his most recent works suggest that London Legacy may not be in top form, and perhaps could use a bit of a freshening. Sure Sweet is another that I gave some thought to including on the big ticket; but I didn't like Sure Sweet's most recent efforts when going beyond five and a half furlongs. So if you've got the budget, you might want to give either or both of those runners more prominence in your play; but for me, I'll be using them along with the rest of this field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $3k N2Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Bold Charmat (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 8 The Natural (ML 3-1)
# 10 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 2 He's Very Rare (ML 9-2)
# 3 Senor Grits (ML 15-1)
# 4 Stax on Stacks (ML 20-1)
# 5 Ton Eighty (ML 10-1)
# 6 My Majesty (ML 15-1)
# 7 Karaoke Cat (ML 20-1)
The cutoff date to qualify for this contest is July 15, 2018. So as long as your runner hasn't won two races since July 15, 2018 (excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count, so you could've won as many of those as you wanted) you're good to go.
RACE 5 - OC 16k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Levitation (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 7 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fire the Trainer (ML 5-1)
# 3 La Waun (ML 7-2)
# 4 London Legacy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Blow My Mind (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sure Sweet (ML 12-1)
Levitation could improve with the return to the main track, and there should be enough pace here for Levitation to chase. Satellite Storm ran quite well in his contest over this main track last time out, and Satellite Storm projects to be forwardly placed.
London Legacy certainly deserves consideration here; but ultimately I decided that his effort last time out combined with his most recent works suggest that London Legacy may not be in top form, and perhaps could use a bit of a freshening. Sure Sweet is another that I gave some thought to including on the big ticket; but I didn't like Sure Sweet's most recent efforts when going beyond five and a half furlongs. So if you've got the budget, you might want to give either or both of those runners more prominence in your play; but for me, I'll be using them along with the rest of this field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $3k N2Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Bold Charmat (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 8 The Natural (ML 3-1)
# 10 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 2 He's Very Rare (ML 9-2)
# 3 Senor Grits (ML 15-1)
# 4 Stax on Stacks (ML 20-1)
# 5 Ton Eighty (ML 10-1)
# 6 My Majesty (ML 15-1)
# 7 Karaoke Cat (ML 20-1)
The cutoff date to qualify for this contest is July 15, 2018. So as long as your runner hasn't won two races since July 15, 2018 (excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count, so you could've won as many of those as you wanted) you're good to go.
Bold Charmat enters this contest having won three of his last four races, albeit against lesser competition. The Natural disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, and could benefit from the class relief. Batti Man (Arg) ran well in his return last time out, and Batti Man's work on 12/4 suggests that he's ready to do it again. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - OC 10k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Bourque (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 6 Wise Curlin (ML 7-2)
# 8 Hot Bobby (ML 3-1)
# 9 Union Riches (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pulpits Power (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cross Creek (ML 10-1)
# 5 One Stop Shop (ML 6-1)
# 5 One Stop Shop (ML 6-1)
# 7 Cleanup Hitter (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Gato Guapo (ML 6-1); but don't bring in # 10 Fritz Johansen (ML 5-2) off the Also Eligible List, because he's scratched too.
Bourque has run well in each of his last three turf routes, and Bourque was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out. Wise Curlin was victorious in his first try over this turf course last time out, and Wise Curlin could improve on that effort with the added distance.
Hot Bobby took the Show at this class level last time out. Union Riches could improve going third off the freshening; though it would be understandable if you chose to drop Union Riches from your main ticket, as it seems that Hot Bobby has Union Riches' number. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $4k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Oil (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Put Your Pants On (ML 7-2)
# 6 Brave Action (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Runn'n Rebel (ML 12-1)
# 2 Awesome E K (ML 5-1)
# 3 Last One Standing (ML 6-1)
# 2 Awesome E K (ML 5-1)
# 3 Last One Standing (ML 6-1)
# 5 Oopper Wallah (ML 10-1)
# 7 Natural Marina (ML 15-1)
# 9 No EZ Money (ML 20-1)
# 10 Unleash the Beast (ML 20-1)
# 11 Mark Ye Well (ML 9-2)
# 11 Mark Ye Well (ML 9-2)
Oil is getting some significant class relief here, and Oil could prove to be the speed of the speed in this field. Put Your Pants On and Brave Action filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this approximate class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 9 with 1 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 8,9,10 with 1,6,8,9 with 4,6,8 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6 with 9 with 1 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 8 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 2,4,5,7 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,10,11 $4.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:40 EST / 1:40 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 9, 2018
12/9/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results
Race 7 - # 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (Final Odds 5.50) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 More Power to Him (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Run Macho Run (20.70) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Data Hawk (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Drink Til You Drop (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - # 2 Tomahawk Tuesday (4.10) - "A" Selection
Certainly not a good sequence for chalk eaters, as not a single Post Time Favorite found their way into the winner's circle. Also not a very good sequence for your's truly; for while it started well and ended well, with two "A" Selections that paid double digits to Win, in between were two big ticket misses; which proved to be two too many.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of 3 / 2 / 10 / 5 / 7 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $12,606.66 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 2 More Power to Him (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Run Macho Run (20.70) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Data Hawk (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Drink Til You Drop (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - # 2 Tomahawk Tuesday (4.10) - "A" Selection
Certainly not a good sequence for chalk eaters, as not a single Post Time Favorite found their way into the winner's circle. Also not a very good sequence for your's truly; for while it started well and ended well, with two "A" Selections that paid double digits to Win, in between were two big ticket misses; which proved to be two too many.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of 3 / 2 / 10 / 5 / 7 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $12,606.66 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/9/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
Sunday is closing day for the Fall Meet at Golden Gate, so that means it's a mandatory payout day for all pools, including the Jackpot Pick Six. So with that by way of introduction let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 9 Indygo Bo (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Popyhowuspelcupcak (ML 7-2)
# 2 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1)
# 4 El Alteno (ML 15-1)
# 5 Katzumoto (ML 20-1)
# 6 Macho Gabacho (ML 4-1)
# 7 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 10 The Ref (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Crazy Prophet (ML 3-1)
Rprettyboyfloyd drops in price after a Win; and while that's often a red flag, Trainer Quinn Howey tends to do well enough with his last out winners that it shouldn't count against Rprettyboyfloyd here. Indygo Bo took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Kitten's Royal (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Conquest Typhoon (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Montu (ML 8-1)
# 2 More Power to Him (ML 9-2)
# 3 Black Tie Event (ML 15-1)
# 5 Taima the Hawk (ML 5-1)
# 7 Unusually Green (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Engram (ML 30-1) and # 8 G. G. Ryder (ML 5-2)
Kitten's Royal missed the winner's circle by a nose at this class level last time out. Conquest Typhoon goes first off the claim for Trainer Bob Hess, Sr, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Hill Croome (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 9 Country Road (ML 8-1)
# 11 Irish Sky (ML 8-1)
# 12 Fire to the Wire (ML 7-2)
# 13 Sequntially (ML 5-1)
C's
Data Hawk took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit on the grass. Union Station ships in from downstate, and could improve with the surface switch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 9 Indygo Bo (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Popyhowuspelcupcak (ML 7-2)
# 2 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1)
# 4 El Alteno (ML 15-1)
# 5 Katzumoto (ML 20-1)
# 6 Macho Gabacho (ML 4-1)
# 7 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 10 The Ref (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Crazy Prophet (ML 3-1)
Rprettyboyfloyd drops in price after a Win; and while that's often a red flag, Trainer Quinn Howey tends to do well enough with his last out winners that it shouldn't count against Rprettyboyfloyd here. Indygo Bo took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Kitten's Royal (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Conquest Typhoon (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Montu (ML 8-1)
# 2 More Power to Him (ML 9-2)
# 3 Black Tie Event (ML 15-1)
# 5 Taima the Hawk (ML 5-1)
# 7 Unusually Green (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Engram (ML 30-1) and # 8 G. G. Ryder (ML 5-2)
Kitten's Royal missed the winner's circle by a nose at this class level last time out. Conquest Typhoon goes first off the claim for Trainer Bob Hess, Sr, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Hill Croome (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 9 Country Road (ML 8-1)
# 11 Irish Sky (ML 8-1)
# 12 Fire to the Wire (ML 7-2)
# 13 Sequntially (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Tough Timber (ML 10-1)
# 2 Candy Crew (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mon Camo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Jimmy the Juice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mon Camo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Jimmy the Juice (ML 12-1)
# 6 Medvale Magic (ML 12-1)
# 7 Giopress (ML 9-2)
# 10 Run Macho Run (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 In My Sight (ML 30-1) and # 14 Shot of a Lifetime (ML 10-1).
Hill Croome enters this contest with a two race winning streak. Hill Croome has finished in the Exacta in each of his six races over this main track.
Fire to the Wire, Irish Sky, and Country Road filled out the Trifecta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire within a length of each other. Sequentially closed well to win last time out, and could do even better Sunday with the additional half length. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Data Hawk (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Union Station (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Boisterous Sky (ML 30-1)
# 3 No Name Fred (ML 10-1)
# 4 Muskoka (ML 12-1)
# 3 No Name Fred (ML 10-1)
# 4 Muskoka (ML 12-1)
# 6 Legendary Night (ML 5-1)
# 7 Moon House (ML 9-2)
# 8 Tornado's Fury (ML 30-1)
# 9 Earnest (ML 5-1)
# 7 Moon House (ML 9-2)
# 8 Tornado's Fury (ML 30-1)
# 9 Earnest (ML 5-1)
Data Hawk took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit on the grass. Union Station ships in from downstate, and could improve with the surface switch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 King's Peak (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Smoked too Many (ML 20-1)
# 7 Drink Til You Drop (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Get Like Me (ML 6-1)
# 2 Special Season (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Reno Johnny (ML 7-2)
# 2 Special Season (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Reno Johnny (ML 7-2)
# 8 Post Rock (ML 8-1)
# 9 Hoover Tower (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hoover Tower (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 3 Red City Zip (ML 30-1)
King's Peak, winner of three of his last four contests, goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such. Smoked too Many may have needed that last one after taking most of the year off. Drink Til You Drop could improve going around two turns again. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Tomahawk Tuesday (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Qman'sspecialmagic (ML 15-1)
# 8 Sith Lord (ML 6-1)
# 12 Outlaw (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Union Leader (ML 8-1)
# 4 Irish Swing (ML 20-1)
# 6 True Regards (ML 5-1)
# 7 Free Alliance (ML 20-1)
# 9 Maple Bar (ML 30-1)
# 10 Temple Knights (ML 15-1)
# 11 Bill's Happy Hour (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Captain d'Artagnan (ML 20-1)
Tomahawk Tuesday has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his two races over this main track. Qman'sspecialmagic showed good early speed in his debut last time out.
Sith Lord missed graduation by just a neck at this class level last time out; though last time out for Sith Lord was over a year ago. Outlaw ships in from downstate and could compete if he takes to the surface change. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 3 with 4 with 8 with 5 with 5 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 3,9 with 4,9 with 8,9,11,12,13 with 1,5 with 4,5,7 with 2,5,8,12 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,4,5,6,7,10 with 4 with 8 with 5 with 5 with 2 $1.40
$0.20 P6: 3 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 8 with 5 with 5 with 2 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 3 with 4 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,10 with 5 with 5 with 2 $1.40
$0.20 P6: 3 with 4 with 8 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 5 with 2 $1.40
$0.20 P6: 3 with 4 with 8 with 5 with 1,2,6,8,9 with 2 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 3 with 4 with 8 with 5 with 5 with 1,4,6,7,9,10,11 $1.40
Total: $104.60
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:45 EST / 2:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 8, 2018
12/8/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Miss America (Division 2) - # 4 Psycho Sister (Final Odds 1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Bear Fan - # 5 The Spiral Jetter (8.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Wish You Were Mine (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 3 Gleefuly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Pretty much a meh day. I was able to get a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection home; and my suggestion to go "ALL" in The Bear Fan looks like pretty good advice in light of the result. But using six of the nine runners in the Miss America just to watch the 11-10 Post Time Favorite win for fun is generally not considered good handicapping; and the second time starter that won the nightcap certainly deserved greater consideration than that which I gave her.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 6 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $311.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Bear Fan - # 5 The Spiral Jetter (8.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Wish You Were Mine (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 3 Gleefuly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Pretty much a meh day. I was able to get a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection home; and my suggestion to go "ALL" in The Bear Fan looks like pretty good advice in light of the result. But using six of the nine runners in the Miss America just to watch the 11-10 Post Time Favorite win for fun is generally not considered good handicapping; and the second time starter that won the nightcap certainly deserved greater consideration than that which I gave her.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 6 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $311.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/8/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
The Southern California thoroughbred racing circuit moves on to Los Alamitos this week, where the minimum wager for Pick Fours remains a dollar; double that which my budget can afford. Therefore, my action moves upstate to Golden Gate, where, for the second week in a row, I find myself playing a track that is having a closing weekend for its Fall Meet. In addition, the final four races on the Golden Gate program have been carded for distaff runners; that should help keep things interesting. Finally, some late information: all grass races have been moved to the main track. So with all that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 9 - (F) Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Division 2) (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 8 Bella Luma (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 2 Impasse (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fizzy Friday (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
Bella Luma closed well in the Grade 3 Berkley over this main track last time out, and there should be enough pace for her to chase Saturday; with Psycho Sister probably being the speed of the speed. The other big ticket selections are out of town shippers who all look well meant here; while the backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) [S] The Bear Fan $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Isa Firecracker (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Spring Heat (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bako Sweets (ML 10-1)
# 10 Impecunious (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Meet Miss Kitty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)
# 5 The Spiral Jetter (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bezzy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Helen's Tiger (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Queen Bee to You (ML 9-2) and # 11 Claudia Mae (ML 8-1)
Many of the entrants here are often found competing in allowance races at this track, where they tend to take turns defeating each other. So if you have a sizable budget, you may want to give strong consideration to just going "ALL" in this leg. In my opinion, Isa Firecracker looks best here, especially since she won't be running on a Fast dirt track. But if Isa Firecracker turns out to be a dud, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, where you could catch a nice price.
RACE 11 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 6 Wish You Were Mine (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Our Slick Chick (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Sophia Del Sol (ML 10-1)
# 2 Oursensationalgirl (ML 2-1)
# 3 Cattering (ML 6-1)
# 5 Senorita Cometa (ML 20-1)
# 7 Another Redhead (ML 20-1)
# 8 Red Glitter (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Wahine (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total. For the record, Sophia Del Sol, Senorita Cometa, Wish You Were Mine, and Wicked Wahine are the four runners in this field with only one lifetime Win.
Wish You Were Mine and Our Slick Chick are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; look for Our Slick Chick early and Wish You Were Mine late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Plum Wild (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 May Song (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 9 - (F) Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Division 2) (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 8 Bella Luma (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 2 Impasse (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fizzy Friday (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 6 Blazinbeauty (ML 20-1)
# 7 Music Babe (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 20-1)
# 7 Music Babe (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 20-1)
Bella Luma closed well in the Grade 3 Berkley over this main track last time out, and there should be enough pace for her to chase Saturday; with Psycho Sister probably being the speed of the speed. The other big ticket selections are out of town shippers who all look well meant here; while the backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) [S] The Bear Fan $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Isa Firecracker (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Spring Heat (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bako Sweets (ML 10-1)
# 10 Impecunious (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Meet Miss Kitty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)
# 5 The Spiral Jetter (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bezzy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Helen's Tiger (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Queen Bee to You (ML 9-2) and # 11 Claudia Mae (ML 8-1)
Many of the entrants here are often found competing in allowance races at this track, where they tend to take turns defeating each other. So if you have a sizable budget, you may want to give strong consideration to just going "ALL" in this leg. In my opinion, Isa Firecracker looks best here, especially since she won't be running on a Fast dirt track. But if Isa Firecracker turns out to be a dud, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, where you could catch a nice price.
RACE 11 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 6 Wish You Were Mine (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Our Slick Chick (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Sophia Del Sol (ML 10-1)
# 2 Oursensationalgirl (ML 2-1)
# 3 Cattering (ML 6-1)
# 5 Senorita Cometa (ML 20-1)
# 7 Another Redhead (ML 20-1)
# 8 Red Glitter (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Wahine (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total. For the record, Sophia Del Sol, Senorita Cometa, Wish You Were Mine, and Wicked Wahine are the four runners in this field with only one lifetime Win.
Wish You Were Mine and Our Slick Chick are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; look for Our Slick Chick early and Wish You Were Mine late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Plum Wild (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 May Song (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Callmejessiejames (ML 8-1)
# 2 Alpine Strawberry (ML 20-1)
# 3 Gleefully (ML 9-2)
# 4 Secretly Paranoide (ML 10-1)
# 5 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 6 Listen to Blue (ML 20-1)
# 7 Scott's Best Beth (ML 10-1)
# 8 Gothic Girl (ML 8-1)
# 2 Alpine Strawberry (ML 20-1)
# 3 Gleefully (ML 9-2)
# 4 Secretly Paranoide (ML 10-1)
# 5 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 6 Listen to Blue (ML 20-1)
# 7 Scott's Best Beth (ML 10-1)
# 8 Gothic Girl (ML 8-1)
Plum Wild has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two career starts at this class level. May Song showed good early speed in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 2,3,9,10 with 4,6 with 9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7,9 with 3 with 6 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,9 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $4.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:45 EST / 3:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 2, 2018
12/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Kate's Princess (Final Odds 5.50) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 13 Uni (GB) (5.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Calexman (8.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Loomis (7.60) - "B" Selection
In the nightcap my "A" Selection # 11 Mobou (2.90) was certainly game, as he fought for the lead and then desperately tried to hold on; but unfortunately the wire didn't arrive in time, and Mobou was just a half length too late to allow me to collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 11 Mobou (2.90) - $1,605.70 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 13 / 4 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $3,845.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Sunday is closing day for the Fall Meet at Del Mar, with the Grade 1 Matriarch serving as the featured race. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as well as a pair of contests for juvenile non-Winners of One, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Kate's Princess (Morning Line 5-1)
B's
# 2 Don'tbeboisterous (ML 7-2)
# 5 Lucky Lately (ML 6-1)
# 7 Adorably Sweet (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Twirling Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 3 Sierra Sunrise (ML 8-1)
# 6 She's a Brewer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Comegowithme (ML 8-1)
# 9 Dr Wysong (ML 12-1)
# 10 Daddys Real Diva (ML 20-1)
Kate's Princess ran well in her debut once she realized there was a race going on and she was in it. Don'tbeboisterous could improve with the return to one turn racing on the dirt.
Lucky Lately and Adorably Sweet are a pair of first time starters that have been working well for this event. Trainer Phil D'Amato has a pair of first time starters (She's a Brewer and Dr Wysong) that I may later regret not using on the big ticket. But I just didn't like their workouts enough to use those two on the main ticket, so on they go with the rest of the field into the backup "C" Selection file.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 13 Uni (GB) (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Vasilika (ML 7-2)
# 12 Dona Bruja (Arg) (ML 8-1)
# 14 Rymska (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Excellent Sunset (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 2 Valadorna (ML 15-1)
# 3 Fahan Mura (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 20-1)
# 5 Quidura (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 20-1)
# 8 Insta Irma (ML 12-1)
# 10 Mission Impassible (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Luminoso (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 20-1)
This contest drew quite well in terms of quality as well as quantity, as you will note that I have relegated some very fine runners to backup "C" Selection status. But ultimately I decided to limit the big ticket selections to those few that I think will be running best late, as this field has no shortage of early speed. Were I to go deeper on the big ticket, I would move Quidora (GB) and/or Mission Impassible (Ire) up to "B" status; but I think I've got this one right.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Red Lightning (ML 7-2)
# 5 Greyvitos (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Apalachee Bay (ML 10-1)
# 3 Captain Scotty (ML 2-1)
# 4 Calexman (ML 8-1)
# 6 Street Vision (ML 20-1)
Lord Simba returns from a fifteen month layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert; and if Lord Simba is back to the form the he showed last year, then Lord Simba could win for fun here. However, if Lord Simba isn't quite in top form, then I see this contest as either Red Lightning early or Greyvitos late. Just in case, all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Mobo (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Loomis (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 5-1)
# 12 Jefe (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Autumn Isabella (ML 30-1)
# 5 Felix Leiter (ML 8-1)
# 6 Leader of Men (ML 8-1)
# 9 Noble Nebraskan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Mystical Moon (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Emotional Wreck (ML 30-1), # 7 Caecilius (ML 12-1); # 8 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)
Mobou tries the turf as well as two turn racing for the first time Sunday; Mobou's breeding suggests that he'll do just fine with both. Loomis projects to be running well late if he doesn't get trapped on the inside. Speakerofthehouse closed well to take the Place at this class level last time out.
Jefe is trying grass for the first time; if Jefe can bring his main track form to the turf then he will certainly contend here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,7 with 9,12,13,14 with 2,5,7 with 1,4,11,12 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10,11 with 7 with 11 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 1,3,4,6 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 2,5,6,9,10 $2.50
Total: $109.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Kate's Princess (Morning Line 5-1)
B's
# 2 Don'tbeboisterous (ML 7-2)
# 5 Lucky Lately (ML 6-1)
# 7 Adorably Sweet (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Twirling Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 3 Sierra Sunrise (ML 8-1)
# 6 She's a Brewer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Comegowithme (ML 8-1)
# 9 Dr Wysong (ML 12-1)
# 10 Daddys Real Diva (ML 20-1)
Kate's Princess ran well in her debut once she realized there was a race going on and she was in it. Don'tbeboisterous could improve with the return to one turn racing on the dirt.
Lucky Lately and Adorably Sweet are a pair of first time starters that have been working well for this event. Trainer Phil D'Amato has a pair of first time starters (She's a Brewer and Dr Wysong) that I may later regret not using on the big ticket. But I just didn't like their workouts enough to use those two on the main ticket, so on they go with the rest of the field into the backup "C" Selection file.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 13 Uni (GB) (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Vasilika (ML 7-2)
# 12 Dona Bruja (Arg) (ML 8-1)
# 14 Rymska (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Excellent Sunset (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 2 Valadorna (ML 15-1)
# 3 Fahan Mura (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 20-1)
# 5 Quidura (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 20-1)
# 8 Insta Irma (ML 12-1)
# 10 Mission Impassible (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Luminoso (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 20-1)
This contest drew quite well in terms of quality as well as quantity, as you will note that I have relegated some very fine runners to backup "C" Selection status. But ultimately I decided to limit the big ticket selections to those few that I think will be running best late, as this field has no shortage of early speed. Were I to go deeper on the big ticket, I would move Quidora (GB) and/or Mission Impassible (Ire) up to "B" status; but I think I've got this one right.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Red Lightning (ML 7-2)
# 5 Greyvitos (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Apalachee Bay (ML 10-1)
# 3 Captain Scotty (ML 2-1)
# 4 Calexman (ML 8-1)
# 6 Street Vision (ML 20-1)
Lord Simba returns from a fifteen month layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert; and if Lord Simba is back to the form the he showed last year, then Lord Simba could win for fun here. However, if Lord Simba isn't quite in top form, then I see this contest as either Red Lightning early or Greyvitos late. Just in case, all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Mobo (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Loomis (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 5-1)
# 12 Jefe (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Autumn Isabella (ML 30-1)
# 5 Felix Leiter (ML 8-1)
# 6 Leader of Men (ML 8-1)
# 9 Noble Nebraskan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Mystical Moon (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Emotional Wreck (ML 30-1), # 7 Caecilius (ML 12-1); # 8 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)
Mobou tries the turf as well as two turn racing for the first time Sunday; Mobou's breeding suggests that he'll do just fine with both. Loomis projects to be running well late if he doesn't get trapped on the inside. Speakerofthehouse closed well to take the Place at this class level last time out.
Jefe is trying grass for the first time; if Jefe can bring his main track form to the turf then he will certainly contend here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,7 with 9,12,13,14 with 2,5,7 with 1,4,11,12 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10,11 with 7 with 11 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 1,3,4,6 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 2,5,6,9,10 $2.50
Total: $109.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 1, 2018
12/1/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Sauce On Side (Final Odds 2.90) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Kingly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Super Patriot (7.00) - "B" Selection
Sometimes you know right away when it's not going to be your day. So it was Saturday in the opening leg of the sequence, when all three of my big ticket selections managed to avoid finishing in the Superfecta. That outcome, combined with each of my "A" Selections avoiding the winner's circle, made it a day to just say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $215.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Kingly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Super Patriot (7.00) - "B" Selection
Sometimes you know right away when it's not going to be your day. So it was Saturday in the opening leg of the sequence, when all three of my big ticket selections managed to avoid finishing in the Superfecta. That outcome, combined with each of my "A" Selections avoiding the winner's circle, made it a day to just say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $215.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/1/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Welcome to December! And also welcome to closing weekend for Del Mar's Fall meet, which means that Saturday's featured race is the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mongolian Humor (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 7 Gypsy Blu (ML 8-1)
# 8 Vallestina (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Sauce On Side (ML 3-1)
# 3 Pied N True (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tapitha Bonita (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tiz Toffee (ML 5-2)
# 6 Tiz Wonderfully (ML 12-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career; a factoid which, unfortunately, is not included in most past performances. The absence of this information is especially unfortunate because we're more accustomed to seeing these races in California carded for non-Winners of Two, rather than this contest, which is for non-Winners of Three. And while we're on the subject of the conditions for this race, note that three entrants (Sauce On Side, Tiz Toffee, and Tiz Wonderfully) are racing above their conditions, as those three have only one career victory apiece.
Mongolian Humor was a open length winner last time out, and could benefit from the return to one turn racing. Gypsy Blu returns to the main track where she won her debut. Vallestina could improve with a return to the dirt. The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Have At It (ML 6-1)
# 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Carrick (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Risky Proposition (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 7 Instilled Regard (ML 12-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Way Early (ML 30-1)
# 12 Pubilius Syrus (ML 30-1)
# 13 Prince Earl (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 14 Californiagoldrush (ML 12-1)
River Boyne (Ire), Have At It, and Desert Stone (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in November's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. Raging Bull picked up a couple of Graded Stakes victories at Saratoga this Summer, and could benefit from the freshening. Carrick, winner of the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park, may have found the course too soft last time out; and while the grass in Del Mar probably won't be firm Saturday, the turf condition should be no worse than Good. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Stretford End (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mongolian Humor (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 7 Gypsy Blu (ML 8-1)
# 8 Vallestina (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Sauce On Side (ML 3-1)
# 3 Pied N True (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tapitha Bonita (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tiz Toffee (ML 5-2)
# 6 Tiz Wonderfully (ML 12-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career; a factoid which, unfortunately, is not included in most past performances. The absence of this information is especially unfortunate because we're more accustomed to seeing these races in California carded for non-Winners of Two, rather than this contest, which is for non-Winners of Three. And while we're on the subject of the conditions for this race, note that three entrants (Sauce On Side, Tiz Toffee, and Tiz Wonderfully) are racing above their conditions, as those three have only one career victory apiece.
Mongolian Humor was a open length winner last time out, and could benefit from the return to one turn racing. Gypsy Blu returns to the main track where she won her debut. Vallestina could improve with a return to the dirt. The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Have At It (ML 6-1)
# 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Carrick (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Risky Proposition (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 7 Instilled Regard (ML 12-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Way Early (ML 30-1)
# 12 Pubilius Syrus (ML 30-1)
# 13 Prince Earl (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 14 Californiagoldrush (ML 12-1)
River Boyne (Ire), Have At It, and Desert Stone (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in November's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. Raging Bull picked up a couple of Graded Stakes victories at Saratoga this Summer, and could benefit from the freshening. Carrick, winner of the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park, may have found the course too soft last time out; and while the grass in Del Mar probably won't be firm Saturday, the turf condition should be no worse than Good. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Stretford End (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Nolo Contesto (ML 9-2)
# 2 Green Fleet (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mutineer (ML 20-1)
# 4 Kingly (ML 3-1)
# 3 Mutineer (ML 20-1)
# 4 Kingly (ML 3-1)
# 5 Mo Reserve (ML 6-1)
# 6 My Mandate (ML 12-1)
# 7 American Camp (ML 8-1)
# 9 Moonoverthebayou (ML 20-1)
# 10 Nolde (ML 20-1)
# 7 American Camp (ML 8-1)
# 9 Moonoverthebayou (ML 20-1)
# 10 Nolde (ML 20-1)
Seven of the ten entrants in this contest are debut runners; and it would be very helpful to know how the public will be wagering on those runners. But, of course, that is unknowable prior to placing wagers for this multi-race sequence. Some of the first time starters here certainly deserve consideration; for example, both Bob Baffert trained runners look good; Trainer Phil D'Amato's Mo Reserve certainly looks like he will run well; and the Bob Hess Jr trained American Camp had a nice sharp work Monday.
But ultimately I decided to make Stretford End, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, a big ticket single. Those of you with larger budgets may decide to include one of the aforementioned first timers, or even perhaps one or more that I didn't mention, in your play. But I felt that it was more important to spread in the two turf contests that are a part of this sequence; and for that reason only one in this race goes on the big ticket, while everyone else gets used as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Marjorie E (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Speakers (ML 8-1)
# 3 Drop the Mic (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sapphire Kid (ML 6-1)
# 8 Absolutely Perfect (ML 6-1)
# 10 Thalia (ML 9-2)
# 11 Super Patriot (ML 6-1)
# 11 Super Patriot (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Quinnie (ML 10-1)
# 6 Tenthousandreasons (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kenndie Sky (ML 20-1)
# 6 Tenthousandreasons (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kenndie Sky (ML 20-1)
# 9 Emmy and I (ML 12-1)
Sapphire Kid and Marjorie E filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Of the two, I give the edge to Marjorie E due to her two prior Wins over this turf course.
Speakers goes first off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who tends to do well with such. Drop the Mic and Absolutely Perfect both graduated last time out, and could upset a field filled with runners who tend to hit the board while avoiding the winner's circle. Thalia could move up with the return to turf. Super Patriot could improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,4,6,8,11 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,8,10,11 $52.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6 with 4 with 8 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,7,9,10,12,13 with 8 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 5,6,7,9 $2.00
Total: $66.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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