Saturday, December 22, 2018

12/22/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the weekend before Christmas, and there's no thoroughbred racing in California.  And I was certainly tempted to just give myself a weekend off; but what fun is that?  So as I did last weekend, I'm taking my action to Arizona, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $5k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Kalsa (Morning Line 4-5)

B's

# 7 Windi's Moment (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Misterkaplan (ML 4-1)
# 3 Sister Sienna (ML 6-1)
# 4 Scott for Her (ML 20-1)
# 5 Faith in Excess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Grinanbareit (ML 20-1)

# 8 Miss Dilly Dally (ML 20-1)

Note that the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is $6.25k.  At least, it would be if there were any Arizona breds in this contest.

Kalsa took the Show last time out in her first race outside Southern California.  Windi's Moment took the Show at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - Alw 3500s - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Dynamic Response (ML 6-5)

B’s

# 3 Kickenit (ML 5-1)
# 5 Passed Due (ML 12-1)
# 6 Norm's Place (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Packy's Out (ML 6-1)
# 4 Brilliant Mike (ML 15-1)
# 7 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 8 Cheap O Charlie (ML 15-1)

This is almost a typical Starter Allowance, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $3.5k or less either this year or last is eligible to run here.  But there is a catch: a runner must be winless on the grass in order to be entered in this contest.  All these entrants are turf maidens.

Dynamic Response was within a length of the winner at the wire on this turf course at this class level last time out, with  Kickenit taking the Show behind him.  Passed Due and Norm's Place were also in that contest; and while Passed Due and Norm's Place both finished well back last time out, they have both run well on the turf in the past.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Wacky Jackie (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 10 Heartofthetemple (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Jazz Night (ML 15-1)
# 4 Highsnobity (ML 12-1)
# 5 Kolocha (ML 10-1)
# 7 Nang Noi (ML 5-1)
# 8 Offended (ML 30-1)

# 9 Show Me Bofum (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 6 One Hot Navigator (ML 6-1)

EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Lunar Party (ML 15-1)

No higher price tag in this race for Arizona breds.  Wacky Jackie and Heartofthetemple both disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in separate contests while taking the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Clm $3k N2Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Toccet's Charm (ML 4-1)

B's

# 6 Sir Matador (ML 6-1)
# 10 Three Padres (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Deputy Command (ML 20-1)
# 4 Wally's Got Class (ML 6-1)
# 5 Fort Cady (ML 5-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 20-1)
# 8 Purple Sky (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 2 Hat in the Ring (ML 20-1) and # 9 American League (ML 3-1)

This contest is restricted to horses that have not won two races since June 22, 2018; but races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count.  Also note that, as with Race 7 above, Arizona breds are up for sale for the same claiming price as all the other entrants.

Toccet's Charm and Sir Matador filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Three Padres could rebound to a better effort going third off the layoff.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,3,5,6 with 3,10 with 3,6,10 $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 1 with 3 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7,8 with 3 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,4,5,7,8,9 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50

Total: $35.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 4:44 EST / 1:44 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: