12/1/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

Welcome to December!  And also welcome to closing weekend for Del Mar's Fall meet, which means that Saturday's featured race is the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Mongolian Humor (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 7 Gypsy Blu (ML 8-1)
# 8 Vallestina (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Sauce On Side (ML 3-1)
# 3 Pied N True (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tapitha Bonita (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tiz Toffee (ML 5-2)
# 6 Tiz Wonderfully (ML 12-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career; a factoid which, unfortunately, is not included in most past performances.  The absence of this information is especially unfortunate because we're more accustomed to seeing these races in California carded for non-Winners of Two, rather than this contest, which is for non-Winners of Three.  And while we're on the subject of the conditions for this race, note that three entrants (Sauce On Side, Tiz Toffee, and Tiz Wonderfully) are racing above their conditions, as those three have only one career victory apiece.

Mongolian Humor was a open length winner last time out, and could benefit from the return to one turn racing.  Gypsy Blu returns to the main track where she won her debut.  Vallestina could improve with a return to the dirt.  The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 4 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Have At It (ML 6-1)
# 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Carrick (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Risky Proposition (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 7 Instilled Regard (ML 12-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Way Early (ML 30-1)
# 12 Pubilius Syrus (ML 30-1)
# 13 Prince Earl (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 14 Californiagoldrush (ML 12-1)

River Boyne (Ire), Have At It, and Desert Stone (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in November's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita.  Raging Bull picked up a couple of Graded Stakes victories at Saratoga this Summer, and could benefit from the freshening.  Carrick, winner of the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park, may have found the course too soft last time out; and while the grass in Del Mar probably won't be firm Saturday, the turf condition should be no worse than Good.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Stretford End (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Nolo Contesto (ML 9-2)

# 2 Green Fleet (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mutineer (ML 20-1)
# 4 Kingly (ML 3-1)

# 5 Mo Reserve (ML 6-1)

# 6 My Mandate (ML 12-1)
# 7 American Camp (ML 8-1)
# 9 Moonoverthebayou (ML 20-1)
# 10 Nolde (ML 20-1)

Seven of the ten entrants in this contest are debut runners; and it would be very helpful to know how the public will be wagering on those runners.  But, of course, that is unknowable prior to placing wagers for this multi-race sequence.  Some of the first time starters here certainly deserve consideration; for example, both Bob Baffert trained runners look good; Trainer Phil D'Amato's Mo Reserve certainly looks like he will run well; and the Bob Hess Jr trained American Camp had a nice sharp work Monday.

But ultimately I decided to make Stretford End, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, a big ticket single.  Those of you with larger budgets may decide to include one of the aforementioned first timers, or even perhaps one or more that I didn't mention, in your play.  But I felt that it was more important to spread in the two turf contests that are a part of this sequence; and for that reason only one in this race goes on the big ticket, while everyone else gets used as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Marjorie E (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Speakers (ML 8-1)

# 3 Drop the Mic (ML 8-1)

# 4 Sapphire Kid (ML 6-1)

# 8 Absolutely Perfect (ML 6-1)

# 10 Thalia (ML 9-2)
# 11 Super Patriot (ML 6-1)

C's

# 5 Quinnie (ML 10-1)
# 6 Tenthousandreasons (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kenndie Sky (ML 20-1)

# 9 Emmy and I (ML 12-1)

Sapphire Kid and Marjorie E filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Of the two, I give the edge to Marjorie E due to her two prior Wins over this turf course.

Speakers goes first off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who tends to do well with such.  Drop the Mic and Absolutely Perfect both graduated last time out, and could upset a field filled with runners who tend to hit the board while avoiding the winner's circle.  Thalia could move up with the return to turf.  Super Patriot could improve going third off the layoff.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,4,6,8,11 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,8,10,11 $52.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6 with 4 with 8 with 1 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,7,9,10,12,13 with 8 with 1 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 1 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 5,6,7,9 $2.00

Total: $66.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo