Sunday, December 30, 2018

12/30/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

And so we arrive at the penultimate day of 2018; and allow me please at this point to interject a programming note of sorts.  While there will be racing at Santa Anita on Monday, New Year's Eve (First Race Post Time 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST) there will be no new blog post from me on Monday.  However, good Lord willing there will be commentary here from me for Tuesday, New Year's Day (First Race Post Time 3:00 EST / 12:00 PST); so update your spreadsheets accordingly.  And with that out of the way, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - Md $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 On the Right (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Arno's Mane Man (ML 5-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 2 Jimmy the Bull (ML 30-1)

# 3 Serve Me a Double (ML 5-1)
# 5 Conversate (ML 12-1)
# 7 Captain N. Barron (ML 6-1)
# 8 Santa Fe Blaze (ML 15-1)

# 10 Disco Cat (ML 15-1)
# 11 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)

On the Right returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.  Arno's Mane Man could move up with the class drop and the return to real dirt.  Emotional Ride looks to be the one that will be running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Cordiality (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Cheekaboo (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 4 English Dancer (ML 4-1)
# 5 Jazaalah (ML 15-1)
# 6 Lightning Dove (ML 15-1)
# 7 Tammy's Window (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 9 One Fast Broad (ML 10-1)
# 10 Lemoona (ML 6-1)

As is often the case with these Optional Claiming contests, the field is filled with many who have proven that they can hit the board at this class level.  It would therefore be quite understandable to go deep in this leg.  However, I decided to go in the opposite direction, making Cordiality a big ticket single Sunday.  I think Cordiality will be quick enough to obtain an easy lead against this lot; and I think Cordiality can be considered a specialist at the eight furlong distance.  So for this leg it's Cordiality as a big ticket solo act, with the rest of the field backing her up as "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Amuse (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Uppercut (ML 5-1)
# 6 Zusha (ML 8-1)
# 9 Family Girl (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dulce Ride (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Media Tone (ML 30-1)
# 2 Todos Santos (ML 50-1)
# 4 Spend Spend Spend (ML 5-1)
# 5 Exuberance (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oozie (ML 8-1)

Amuse could rebound going third off the layoff after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  The added distance could also work to the benefit of Amuse.

Uppercut returns off the extended vacation, and could return to the form that she showed while taking the Show in the Grade 3 Beaumont behind Gas Station Sushi two starts back.  Zusha and Family Girl fit well at this class level.  Dulce Ride should be forwardly placed early.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 10 Harmless (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Gallantlystreaming (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Posit (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mind for Mischief (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Gemagine (ML 6-1)
# 3 Apache Princess (ML 7-2)
# 4 Haughty Girl (ML 15-1)
# 7 Kittyhawk Lass (ML 15-1)
# 9 Unicorn (ML 6-1)
# 11 Twinkle Dream (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 8 Acadia Fleet (ML 15-1)

Harmless ran well, if somewhat evenly, in her debut last time out.  Gallantlystreaming (Ire) missed graduation by just a length sprinting on the Del Mar turf last time out.  Posit seems well bred for her first try on the grass.  Mind for Mischief is a debut runner who could do well against a field that seems to lack a standout.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 7 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,9 with 2 with 3,6,7,9,10 with 1,5,6,10 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,10,11 with 2 with 7 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 7 with 10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 7 with 2,3,4,7,9,11 $3.00

Total: $45.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:03 EDT / 3:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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