Race 6 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 10 Dressed in Hermes (Final Odds 3.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Arabian Legend (7.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Matriarch - # 10 Stormy Lucy (65.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Uncle Lino (7.50) - "B" Selection
We dodged a bullet in the opening leg when Dressed in Hermes came on late to pass # 2 Collected (8.90) in the stretch, as Collected was a runner who most certainly should have been on our tickets but wasn't. Collected had won his debut effort charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out without ever having been more than a half length away from the lead. Such a strong effort should have merited Collected consideration by us, and we were fortunate that he came up second best.
Should we have used Race 7 winner Arabian Legend on our tickets? Well, hindsight being twenty / twenty the answer is of course; he won. But pre-race it was a legitimate question as to whether or not the improvement Arabian Legend showed in his last race was due to the switch to the turf; which, as a son of Scat Daddy, is where you would expect Arabian Legend to succeed. Still, the bullet work over the Santa Anita main track on 11/20 (where Arabian Legend covered four furlongs in forty-six and two fifths seconds) should have alerted us that he was ready to run huge, regardless of which surface he was on.
But while we hope to learn from our errors in the first half of the sequence, it's hard to feel truly bad about the end result; because no matter how perfectly we may have played Races 6 and 7, there was no way we were hitting today's Pick Four, because there was not way I was going to have Stormy Lucy on any of my tickets.
Today was Stormy Lucy's first win since she took the Grade 3 Santa Barbara Handicap (as the Post Time Favorite) back on April 13, 2014. Not only had she failed to win any of her eight races since that event, Stormy Lucy had not even taken the Place in any race since that victory. Stormy Lucy had not earned a Beyer Speed Figure above 94 in any of her previous thirty races in her career; meanwhile, six of her opponents today had topped that 94 figure in either or both of their two most recent contests. My congratulations to those lucky few who won with her today; but going into today's race, I wouldn't have bet Stormy Lucy on a dare.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 11 / 10 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $25,229.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 29, 2015
11/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
This is it, the final day of The Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar. That makes it a mandatory payout day, though there are no carryovers to speak of. We've got a pair of Graded Stakes on the back end of the card; but the real focus will be on finding the right two year olds, as juveniles comprise three of the final four events. So with all that let's get to it, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Dressed in Hermes (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 6 Ninety One Assault (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 3 Tusk (ML 6-1)
# 7 Hot Ore (ML 12-1)
# 13 Archaeo (No Line) is a program scratch.
This is the two year old male's counterpart to yesterday's Jimmy Durante Stakes. Dressed in Hermes is the only stakes winner in the field; indeed, Dressed in Hermes is the only runner in this field with more than one victory.
Tusk and Ninety One Assault exit the same maiden contest where they both closed well Even though Tusk won the photo, I think Ninety One Assault has the better upside. Hot Ore didn't care much for the soft surface at Keeneland last time out, and should improve with the return to the firmer SoCal grass.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Triple Clown (ML 5-1)
# 5 Hoffenheim (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Hard Gale (ML 3-1)
# 6 Film Juror (ML 20-1)
# 12 Eric the Trojan (ML 12-1)
C's
# 8 My Patate (ML 20-1)
# 3 Lord Walton (NL) is a program scratch.
This race and Race 9 share the same conditions. First time starter Triple Clown, trained by Peter Miller, was sired by You Luckie Mann, who won as a two year old at first asking. Hoffenheim, trained by Bob Baffert, ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.
Film Juror, trained by Art Sherman, Hard Gale, trained by Phil D'Amato, and My Patate, trained by Victor Garcia, are all first time starters from sires whose progeny win more then their fair share of debuts; though My Patate's works seem somewhat less impressive than the others. Eric the Trojan, trained by Peter Miller, showed some early quickness in his debut last time out before he ran out of gas.
RACE 8 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Stellar Path (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Filimbi (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Hard Not to Like (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 3 Recepta (ML 8-1)
# 15 Alexis Tangier (15-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Stella Path (Fr), trained by Chrstophe Clement, closed well while winning the Grade 3 Athenia last time out. Filimbi, trained by Bill Mott, missed by just a half length of taking the Grade 1 Just a Game two starts back, and took the Place ahead of Hard Not to Like in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in the start before that.
Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement, is the top career earner in this field; but I suspect that she needs more than eight furlongs to show her best. Recepta, trained by Jimmy Toner, won the Grade 3 Noble Damsel two starts back, defeating (among others) # 6 Crowley's Law (GB) (ML 6-1). Recepta should appreciate a return to a firm turf surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mighty Moses (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Uncle Lino (ML 12-1)
# 11 Miner's Light (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Wild About Deb (ML 12-1)
This race and Race 7 share the same conditions. Mighty Moses, trained by Bob Baffert, has taken the Place at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt. Miner's Light, trained by Carla Gaines, just missed graduating in his debut last time out when he lost the photo to Exaggerator, winner of last week's Delta Downs Jackpot. The concern with Miner's Light is that he hasn't raced since that July contest.
Uncle Lino missed by a neck of graduating in his debut last time out. But that contest was back in July, and, like Miner's Light, Uncle Lino has not competed since. Wild About Deb is a first time starter trained by Phil D'Amato and sired by Eskendereya.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 1,4,5,6,12 with 1,8,9 with 2,3,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 8,9 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 4 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Dressed in Hermes (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 6 Ninety One Assault (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 3 Tusk (ML 6-1)
# 7 Hot Ore (ML 12-1)
# 13 Archaeo (No Line) is a program scratch.
This is the two year old male's counterpart to yesterday's Jimmy Durante Stakes. Dressed in Hermes is the only stakes winner in the field; indeed, Dressed in Hermes is the only runner in this field with more than one victory.
Tusk and Ninety One Assault exit the same maiden contest where they both closed well Even though Tusk won the photo, I think Ninety One Assault has the better upside. Hot Ore didn't care much for the soft surface at Keeneland last time out, and should improve with the return to the firmer SoCal grass.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Triple Clown (ML 5-1)
# 5 Hoffenheim (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Hard Gale (ML 3-1)
# 6 Film Juror (ML 20-1)
# 12 Eric the Trojan (ML 12-1)
C's
# 8 My Patate (ML 20-1)
# 3 Lord Walton (NL) is a program scratch.
This race and Race 9 share the same conditions. First time starter Triple Clown, trained by Peter Miller, was sired by You Luckie Mann, who won as a two year old at first asking. Hoffenheim, trained by Bob Baffert, ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.
Film Juror, trained by Art Sherman, Hard Gale, trained by Phil D'Amato, and My Patate, trained by Victor Garcia, are all first time starters from sires whose progeny win more then their fair share of debuts; though My Patate's works seem somewhat less impressive than the others. Eric the Trojan, trained by Peter Miller, showed some early quickness in his debut last time out before he ran out of gas.
RACE 8 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Stellar Path (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Filimbi (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Hard Not to Like (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 3 Recepta (ML 8-1)
# 15 Alexis Tangier (15-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Stella Path (Fr), trained by Chrstophe Clement, closed well while winning the Grade 3 Athenia last time out. Filimbi, trained by Bill Mott, missed by just a half length of taking the Grade 1 Just a Game two starts back, and took the Place ahead of Hard Not to Like in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in the start before that.
Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement, is the top career earner in this field; but I suspect that she needs more than eight furlongs to show her best. Recepta, trained by Jimmy Toner, won the Grade 3 Noble Damsel two starts back, defeating (among others) # 6 Crowley's Law (GB) (ML 6-1). Recepta should appreciate a return to a firm turf surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mighty Moses (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Uncle Lino (ML 12-1)
# 11 Miner's Light (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Wild About Deb (ML 12-1)
This race and Race 7 share the same conditions. Mighty Moses, trained by Bob Baffert, has taken the Place at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt. Miner's Light, trained by Carla Gaines, just missed graduating in his debut last time out when he lost the photo to Exaggerator, winner of last week's Delta Downs Jackpot. The concern with Miner's Light is that he hasn't raced since that July contest.
Uncle Lino missed by a neck of graduating in his debut last time out. But that contest was back in July, and, like Miner's Light, Uncle Lino has not competed since. Wild About Deb is a first time starter trained by Phil D'Amato and sired by Eskendereya.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 1,4,5,6,12 with 1,8,9 with 2,3,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 8,9 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 4 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 28, 2015
11/28/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Tribal Jewel (Final Odds 6.50) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 4 Chiropractor (14.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Native Diver - # 3 Dortmund (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Somethings Unusual (6.80) - "B" Selection
We've seen this before, so we know how this works: we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.
Chiropractor certainly fit as at least a "B" Selection in The Hollywood Derby based upon the Beyer Speed Figure and the Brisnet Late Pace figure that he had earned in his last race. But I felt that a "C" Selection was more appropriate based upon Chiropractor's limited career earnings and his complete lack of any stakes experience prior to running in this Grade 1 event. It was a miscalculation on my part, and it cost us, as we found ourselves today contributing instead of cashing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $849.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 4 Chiropractor (14.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Native Diver - # 3 Dortmund (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Somethings Unusual (6.80) - "B" Selection
We've seen this before, so we know how this works: we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.
Chiropractor certainly fit as at least a "B" Selection in The Hollywood Derby based upon the Beyer Speed Figure and the Brisnet Late Pace figure that he had earned in his last race. But I felt that a "C" Selection was more appropriate based upon Chiropractor's limited career earnings and his complete lack of any stakes experience prior to running in this Grade 1 event. It was a miscalculation on my part, and it cost us, as we found ourselves today contributing instead of cashing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $849.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/28/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend. They've got a big day of racing scheduled for Saturday at Del Mar, with three Graded Stakes on the card: The Jimmy Durante (for juvenile fillies on the grass); The Hollywood Derby; and The Native Diver. We'll be looking at the latter two below as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Storm Comin Thru (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 5-1)
# 6 Roman Tizzy (ML 4-1)
# 7 Tribal Jewel (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Sir Barclay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Benba (ML 5-1)
# 3 City State (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Storm Comin Thru has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races that are superior to those which every other entrant in this field has earned over the same span. The concern with Storm Comin Thru is that he has had over a half dozen chances at this level without grabbing the brass ring. So for that reason, it seems prudent to spread in this leg.
Toledo Eddie took the Place against open $25k claimers last time out. Roman Tizzy took the Show behind Storm Comin Thru last time out at this class level. Tribal Jewel makes his first start off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with nearly a quarter of such.
Sir Barclay could be speed on the rail. Benba has been competitive at this class level when competing on the grass, and should be up close early.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Om (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Sharla Rae (ML 12-1)
# 8 Closing Bell (ML 6-1)
# 12 Royal Albert Hall (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 13 Offering Plan (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Chiropractor (ML 8-1)
# 3 Vigilante (ML 20-1) has been scratched. Bring in # 15 Acceptance (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Om enters this contest with a two race winning streak, having captured the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby and the Grade 2 Twilight Derby. Sharla Rae is the only filly in this field; she is also the only Grade 1 winner in this field. However, it appears that Sharla Rae is currently on a downward slide.
Closing Bell should improve with a return to a firmer surface. Closing Bell will also benefit if he can mange to get a cleaner trip than he has in several of his prior starts.
Royal Albert Hall (GB) has hit the board in every Graded Stakes in which he's competed, excepting The Hill Prince where he obviously did not care for the soft surface. Offering Plan owns this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Whether that was a fluke or a sudden maturation remains to be seen.
Mister Brightside (Ire) took the Place behind Om in the Twilight Derby last time out despite a poor start. Chiropractor made a nice move forward last time out, and could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - The Native Diver (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dortmund (6-5)
B's
None
C’s
# 4 Iron Fist (ML 2-1)
# 7 Imperative (ML 4-1)
# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 12-1) and # 6 Yahilwa (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Dortmund is undefeated in his career, excepting races in which he competed against Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Should Dortmund forget to turn left twice, the best of the rest appears to be either Iron Fist early, or Imperative late.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 What a View (ML 9-2)
# 12 Fritz Johansen (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Somethings Unusual (ML 8-1)
# 6 Hunt (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Roy H (ML 12-1)
C's
# 9 Unusual Fleet (ML 12-1)
# 3 Follow Me Crev (No Line) is a program scratch. # 14 Rockinatten (ML 10-1) does not drawn in off the Also Eligible List.
What a View and Fritz Johansen took the Place and Show, respectively, last time out in the same contest against straight Allowance company. Somethings Unusual was steadied twice last time out, and should improve with a better trip. Hunt (Ire) gets some class relief after running mid-pack last time out in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby.
Roy H took the Show at this class level last time out. Unusual Fleet could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 5 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7,8 with 2,5,8,12,13 with 3 with 1,6,7,10,12 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 5 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,4 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 4,7 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 3 with 9 $0.50
Total: $58.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Storm Comin Thru (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 5-1)
# 6 Roman Tizzy (ML 4-1)
# 7 Tribal Jewel (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Sir Barclay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Benba (ML 5-1)
# 3 City State (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Storm Comin Thru has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races that are superior to those which every other entrant in this field has earned over the same span. The concern with Storm Comin Thru is that he has had over a half dozen chances at this level without grabbing the brass ring. So for that reason, it seems prudent to spread in this leg.
Toledo Eddie took the Place against open $25k claimers last time out. Roman Tizzy took the Show behind Storm Comin Thru last time out at this class level. Tribal Jewel makes his first start off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with nearly a quarter of such.
Sir Barclay could be speed on the rail. Benba has been competitive at this class level when competing on the grass, and should be up close early.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Om (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Sharla Rae (ML 12-1)
# 8 Closing Bell (ML 6-1)
# 12 Royal Albert Hall (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 13 Offering Plan (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Chiropractor (ML 8-1)
# 3 Vigilante (ML 20-1) has been scratched. Bring in # 15 Acceptance (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Om enters this contest with a two race winning streak, having captured the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby and the Grade 2 Twilight Derby. Sharla Rae is the only filly in this field; she is also the only Grade 1 winner in this field. However, it appears that Sharla Rae is currently on a downward slide.
Closing Bell should improve with a return to a firmer surface. Closing Bell will also benefit if he can mange to get a cleaner trip than he has in several of his prior starts.
Royal Albert Hall (GB) has hit the board in every Graded Stakes in which he's competed, excepting The Hill Prince where he obviously did not care for the soft surface. Offering Plan owns this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Whether that was a fluke or a sudden maturation remains to be seen.
Mister Brightside (Ire) took the Place behind Om in the Twilight Derby last time out despite a poor start. Chiropractor made a nice move forward last time out, and could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - The Native Diver (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dortmund (6-5)
B's
None
C’s
# 4 Iron Fist (ML 2-1)
# 7 Imperative (ML 4-1)
# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 12-1) and # 6 Yahilwa (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Dortmund is undefeated in his career, excepting races in which he competed against Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Should Dortmund forget to turn left twice, the best of the rest appears to be either Iron Fist early, or Imperative late.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 What a View (ML 9-2)
# 12 Fritz Johansen (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Somethings Unusual (ML 8-1)
# 6 Hunt (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Roy H (ML 12-1)
C's
# 9 Unusual Fleet (ML 12-1)
# 3 Follow Me Crev (No Line) is a program scratch. # 14 Rockinatten (ML 10-1) does not drawn in off the Also Eligible List.
What a View and Fritz Johansen took the Place and Show, respectively, last time out in the same contest against straight Allowance company. Somethings Unusual was steadied twice last time out, and should improve with a better trip. Hunt (Ire) gets some class relief after running mid-pack last time out in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby.
Roy H took the Show at this class level last time out. Unusual Fleet could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 5 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7,8 with 2,5,8,12,13 with 3 with 1,6,7,10,12 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 5 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,4 with 3 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 4,7 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 3 with 9 $0.50
Total: $58.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 26, 2015
11/26/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 2 Tiz a Classy Lass (Final Odds 2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 9 Patriotic Diamond (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup - # 6 The Pizza Man (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 13 Redneck Crazy (5.00) - "A" Selection
There's nothing like pulling four Aces to make you feel good about your ability to prognosticate. Of course, there's also nothing like pulling four Aces to make you question your ability to prognosticate by needing to go so much deeper than necessary in so many legs.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 3 Little Mustard (6.50) - $93.15 Finish: 3rd
# 5 And Then Some (2.70*) - $44.70 Finish: 5th
# 8 H R Express (3.90) - $79.45 Finish: 4th
# 11 Nusret (5.40) - $77.80 Finish: 7th
Since And Then Some and H R Express were "A" Selections, their payouts (like that for Redneck Crazy) would have been trebled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket; though keep in mind that since And Then Some was the Post Time Favorite, his actual payout had he won would have been lower than that stated above, as there were multiple scratches in the finale.
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 6 / 13 paid $91.60 for a fifty cent wager. As mentioned above, we collect three times that amount courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket. So that puts a total of $274.80 into our pockets, making for approximate odds of 2.84-1 on our $71.50 investment.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 9 Patriotic Diamond (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup - # 6 The Pizza Man (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 13 Redneck Crazy (5.00) - "A" Selection
There's nothing like pulling four Aces to make you feel good about your ability to prognosticate. Of course, there's also nothing like pulling four Aces to make you question your ability to prognosticate by needing to go so much deeper than necessary in so many legs.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 3 Little Mustard (6.50) - $93.15 Finish: 3rd
# 5 And Then Some (2.70*) - $44.70 Finish: 5th
# 8 H R Express (3.90) - $79.45 Finish: 4th
# 11 Nusret (5.40) - $77.80 Finish: 7th
Since And Then Some and H R Express were "A" Selections, their payouts (like that for Redneck Crazy) would have been trebled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket; though keep in mind that since And Then Some was the Post Time Favorite, his actual payout had he won would have been lower than that stated above, as there were multiple scratches in the finale.
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 6 / 13 paid $91.60 for a fifty cent wager. As mentioned above, we collect three times that amount courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket. So that puts a total of $274.80 into our pockets, making for approximate odds of 2.84-1 on our $71.50 investment.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/26/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
"We are profoundly grateful for the blessings bestowed upon us: the preservation of our freedom, so dearly bought and so highly prized; our opportunities for human welfare and happiness, so limitless in their scope; our material prosperity, so far surpassing that of earlier years; and our private spiritual blessings, so deeply cherished by all. For these we offer fervent thanks to God." - Harry S. Truman
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you all have a wonderful and blessed time, enjoying today in the manner in which you most prefer. As for me, that manner is sorting through the final four races on the Del Mar card; which today is comprised of three events limited to California bred runners surrounding the featured race, the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The contests start early today, so let's get to it as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 5 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Tiz a Classy Lass (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Diamond Cut (ML 6-1)
# 7 Jade With Envy (ML 7-2)
# 9 Awesome Luck (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stole a Kiss (ML 6-1)
# 4 Peggy Sue's Loose (ML 4-1)
# 8 Rock N Bunny (ML 20-1)
Toss that "effort" by Tiz a Classy Lass two starts back, as it was 1) on dirt; and 2) the only race of her career where she competed wearing front leg wraps. Once you draw a line through that race you see a steadily improving form, culminating in a Starter Allowance N2L win last time out by over four lengths. If she continues to improve, or simply holds form, Tiz a Class Lass stands a good chance of getting her picture taken today.
Diamond Cut ran well this past Spring before going on the shelf. Diamond Cut's works leading into this has been steady, and if she experiences the natural maturation that you would expect from a three year old, then she should be right in the mix today.
Awesome Luck and Jade With Envy took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest at this class level last time out for each. Stole a Kiss has been showing steady improvement over her last several races. Rock N Bunny took the Place charging down the hill at Santa Anita last month against open claimers; perhaps she'll improve off that effort with the stretch out today.
Peggy Sue's Loose was a clear winner last time out at this class level despite the rider losing the whip; Peggy Sue's Loose also shows a pattern of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over her last few races. So why is Peggy Sue's Loose a "C" Selection rather than an "A"? Because since winning her most recent race on October 8, Peggy Sue's Loose has had just one public workout; and that was on October 28. So unless the clockers missed her on the track one morning, it's fair to conclude that Peggy Sue's Loose is not in the best shape of her life. Add to that the fact that her connections are willing to run her for a tag for the first time in her career right after she has achieved the first two Wins of her career. I didn't leave Peggy Sue's Loose completely off our tickets because that talent to win at this level is there; but there are enough red flags here to warrant extreme caution.
RACE 6 - [S] (F) OC 80k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Sambamzajammin (ML 4-1)
# 9 Patriotic Diamond (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Star of Munster (ML 6-1)
# 8 Forthenineteen (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Sambamzajammin and Patriotic Diamond took the Place and Show, respectively, in The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes last time out for each. Star of Munster is a lifetime two-for-two when not competing in open stakes.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 The Pizza Man (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Up With the Birds (ML 4-1)
# 14 Big John B (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 15 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Bird E House (ML 30-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
The Pizza Man took the Show in last year's running of this event, and he should appreciate the class relief off his more recent efforts. Up With the Birds, trained by Graham Motion, hasn't made it to the Winner's Circle since July of 2014, and has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite three times since that victory. But Up With the Birds certainly has the talent to win against today's competition, and shouldn't be underestimated.
Big John B is the horse for the course in this contest, with a lifetime three-for-three record on this turf course, all in Graded Stakes contests. Dana's Best (Aus), like Big John B, is trained by Phil D'Amato. Dana's Best should appreciate the added distance. Ganesh (Brz) took the Place in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham back in May, the last time that he competed at today's distance.
RACE 8 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 And Then Some (ML 7-2)
# 8 H R Express (ML 9-2)
# 13 Redneck Crazy (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Nusret (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Little Mustard (ML 5-1)
# 4 Dixie Caravan (No Line) and # 14 Zorro's Storm (NL) are program scratches. # 9 Ski Utah (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.
And Then Some drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, two starts after earning this field's best career Beyer Speed Figure. H R Express took the Show in his debut at this class level last time out. Redneck Crazy took the Place at this class level as the Post Time Favorite last time out.
Nusret has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races, both at this class level. Little Mustard took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7,9 with 1,9 with 2,6,14 with 5,8,11,13 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 6 with 5,8,13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 3,7 with 5,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 3 $1.00
Total: $71.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you all have a wonderful and blessed time, enjoying today in the manner in which you most prefer. As for me, that manner is sorting through the final four races on the Del Mar card; which today is comprised of three events limited to California bred runners surrounding the featured race, the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The contests start early today, so let's get to it as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 5 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Tiz a Classy Lass (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Diamond Cut (ML 6-1)
# 7 Jade With Envy (ML 7-2)
# 9 Awesome Luck (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stole a Kiss (ML 6-1)
# 4 Peggy Sue's Loose (ML 4-1)
# 8 Rock N Bunny (ML 20-1)
Toss that "effort" by Tiz a Classy Lass two starts back, as it was 1) on dirt; and 2) the only race of her career where she competed wearing front leg wraps. Once you draw a line through that race you see a steadily improving form, culminating in a Starter Allowance N2L win last time out by over four lengths. If she continues to improve, or simply holds form, Tiz a Class Lass stands a good chance of getting her picture taken today.
Diamond Cut ran well this past Spring before going on the shelf. Diamond Cut's works leading into this has been steady, and if she experiences the natural maturation that you would expect from a three year old, then she should be right in the mix today.
Awesome Luck and Jade With Envy took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest at this class level last time out for each. Stole a Kiss has been showing steady improvement over her last several races. Rock N Bunny took the Place charging down the hill at Santa Anita last month against open claimers; perhaps she'll improve off that effort with the stretch out today.
Peggy Sue's Loose was a clear winner last time out at this class level despite the rider losing the whip; Peggy Sue's Loose also shows a pattern of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over her last few races. So why is Peggy Sue's Loose a "C" Selection rather than an "A"? Because since winning her most recent race on October 8, Peggy Sue's Loose has had just one public workout; and that was on October 28. So unless the clockers missed her on the track one morning, it's fair to conclude that Peggy Sue's Loose is not in the best shape of her life. Add to that the fact that her connections are willing to run her for a tag for the first time in her career right after she has achieved the first two Wins of her career. I didn't leave Peggy Sue's Loose completely off our tickets because that talent to win at this level is there; but there are enough red flags here to warrant extreme caution.
RACE 6 - [S] (F) OC 80k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Sambamzajammin (ML 4-1)
# 9 Patriotic Diamond (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Star of Munster (ML 6-1)
# 8 Forthenineteen (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Sambamzajammin and Patriotic Diamond took the Place and Show, respectively, in The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes last time out for each. Star of Munster is a lifetime two-for-two when not competing in open stakes.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 The Pizza Man (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Up With the Birds (ML 4-1)
# 14 Big John B (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 15 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Bird E House (ML 30-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
The Pizza Man took the Show in last year's running of this event, and he should appreciate the class relief off his more recent efforts. Up With the Birds, trained by Graham Motion, hasn't made it to the Winner's Circle since July of 2014, and has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite three times since that victory. But Up With the Birds certainly has the talent to win against today's competition, and shouldn't be underestimated.
Big John B is the horse for the course in this contest, with a lifetime three-for-three record on this turf course, all in Graded Stakes contests. Dana's Best (Aus), like Big John B, is trained by Phil D'Amato. Dana's Best should appreciate the added distance. Ganesh (Brz) took the Place in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham back in May, the last time that he competed at today's distance.
RACE 8 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 And Then Some (ML 7-2)
# 8 H R Express (ML 9-2)
# 13 Redneck Crazy (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Nusret (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Little Mustard (ML 5-1)
# 4 Dixie Caravan (No Line) and # 14 Zorro's Storm (NL) are program scratches. # 9 Ski Utah (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.
And Then Some drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, two starts after earning this field's best career Beyer Speed Figure. H R Express took the Show in his debut at this class level last time out. Redneck Crazy took the Place at this class level as the Post Time Favorite last time out.
Nusret has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races, both at this class level. Little Mustard took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7,9 with 1,9 with 2,6,14 with 5,8,11,13 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 6 with 5,8,13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 3,7 with 5,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 3 $1.00
Total: $71.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 22, 2015
11/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Toomanytomatoes (Final Odds 8.00) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Forever Juanito (15.00) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 2 Solid Wager (9.00) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Nikki's Fine Time (11.60) - "B" Selection
Looks like that Late Double wasn't so chalky after all.
Needless to say, when the lowest priced winner pays $18 for a deuce, you know that it was a wild sequence. If you gave me a chance to re-handicap all four contests again now, knowing the results, I'm still not sure that I could catch 'em all. It was just one of those days where shrug your shoulders and say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 2 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $16,820.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Forever Juanito (15.00) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 2 Solid Wager (9.00) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Nikki's Fine Time (11.60) - "B" Selection
Looks like that Late Double wasn't so chalky after all.
Needless to say, when the lowest priced winner pays $18 for a deuce, you know that it was a wild sequence. If you gave me a chance to re-handicap all four contests again now, knowing the results, I'm still not sure that I could catch 'em all. It was just one of those days where shrug your shoulders and say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 2 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $16,820.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
"No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man’s reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable—and we believe they can do it again." - John F. Kennedy
The holidays are fast approaching, as today marks the final Sunday before Thanksgiving. Hopefully we can use today to increase our gift giving bankroll, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 20000s - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Handful (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Light Striker (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Kristinite (ML 5-1)
# 8 West Coast Storm (ML 4-1)
Note for future reference that there are no lifetime Win restrictions on this contest. This race is open to all fillies and mares three years old and up which have started for a claiming price of $20k or less this year. Handfull gets in because her first race of 2015 back on January 3 saw her compete with a $20k price tag on her head. Handfull won that contest, as well as most of her other races this year, all of which have seen her running against much stiffer competition. Handfull appears to do her best running on non-dirt surfaces, but her two-for-three lifetime record on fast dirt tracks suggests that her form should hold today.
Light Striker has won each of her last two starts on a fast dirt track, both with today's rider Mario Gutierrez in the saddle. Kristinite moves up in class, but her most recent Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she fits with the contenders here. West Coast Storm shifts from the turf to the main track; Trainer Richard Baltas gets over twenty percent winners when making that move.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Yes Yes Yes (ML 9-2)
# 5 Drover Crazy (ML 20-1)
B’s
# 6 King of Jazz (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Hobbits Hero (ML 7-2)
C's
Nanybelle moves to the turf for her second career start; progeny of her sire, Bellamy Road, tend to do well when trying the grass for the first time. Nikki's Fine Time took the Show in her debut at this class level last time out. The one race experiment with blinkers is over for Shakti, and she looks to improve with the hood removed.
The holidays are fast approaching, as today marks the final Sunday before Thanksgiving. Hopefully we can use today to increase our gift giving bankroll, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 20000s - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Handful (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Light Striker (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Kristinite (ML 5-1)
# 8 West Coast Storm (ML 4-1)
Note for future reference that there are no lifetime Win restrictions on this contest. This race is open to all fillies and mares three years old and up which have started for a claiming price of $20k or less this year. Handfull gets in because her first race of 2015 back on January 3 saw her compete with a $20k price tag on her head. Handfull won that contest, as well as most of her other races this year, all of which have seen her running against much stiffer competition. Handfull appears to do her best running on non-dirt surfaces, but her two-for-three lifetime record on fast dirt tracks suggests that her form should hold today.
Light Striker has won each of her last two starts on a fast dirt track, both with today's rider Mario Gutierrez in the saddle. Kristinite moves up in class, but her most recent Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she fits with the contenders here. West Coast Storm shifts from the turf to the main track; Trainer Richard Baltas gets over twenty percent winners when making that move.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Yes Yes Yes (ML 9-2)
# 5 Drover Crazy (ML 20-1)
B’s
# 6 King of Jazz (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Hobbits Hero (ML 7-2)
C's
# 7 Perfectly Majestic (ML 6-1)
# 12 Baccelo (ML 4-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Yes Yes Yes took the Place at this class level last time out. Drover Crazy won at this class level two starts back, albeit on the main dirt track; but Drover Crazy also won at this class level here at Del Mar last year when this main track was synthetic. Since his grandsire is Distorted Humor, there's an excellent chance that Drover Crazy's form will hold on this turf stretch out.
King of Jazz (Arg) was within two lengths of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out. Hobbits Hero moves up the class ladder, but his most recent Beyer Speed Figures suggest that he can compete at this level. Perfectly Majestic is a three year old gelding who may make a forward move today.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Big Macher (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Forest Chatter (ML 5-1)
C's
None
# 1 Avanti Bello (No Line) and # 9 Old Man Lake (NL) are program scratches. # 7 Red Outlaw (ML 8-1) and # 11 Richard's Boy (ML 8-1) have also been scratched.
Big Macher, winner of this contest last year when it was held on the synthetic track, gets some huge class relief here. Forest Chatter's work on the 12th suggests that the move off the grass should not present any problems.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Lottie (ML 8-5)
B's
# 2 Nodiac (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Nanybelle (ML 20-1)
# 6 Nikki's Fine Time (ML 6-1)
# 7 Shakti (ML 10-1)
C's
None
# 12 Queen Scheherazade (ML 15-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Lottie took the Place at this class level in her debut for Trainer Graham Motion at Keeneland last time out. Nodiac (Ire) makes her North American debut after taking the Show at Galway last time out in her first career start.
Nanybelle moves to the turf for her second career start; progeny of her sire, Bellamy Road, tend to do well when trying the grass for the first time. Nikki's Fine Time took the Show in her debut at this class level last time out. The one race experiment with blinkers is over for Shakti, and she looks to improve with the hood removed.
OK, that's the analysis. Since the last two races look as if they may turn super chalky, in addition to playing our tickets in Crist fashion, were're also going to put in a ticket with the two big favorites in the finale with all out other selections. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4,5 with 5 with 8 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 4,5,6,9 with 5,8 with 2,4,6,7,8 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 4,5 with 5 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7 with 5 with 8 $0.50
Big Macher / Lottie with All A, B, and C entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8,9 with 4,5,6,7,9 with 5 with 8 $10.00
Total: $54.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 21, 2015
11/21/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 11 Jeremy's Legacy (Ire) (Final Odds 6.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Stealth Drone (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Red Carpet - # 11 Rusty Slipper (6.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Newfound Gold (3.20*) - "C" Selection
The public thought more highly of Newfound Gold's chances than we did, making him the Post Time Favorite in the finale. As it turned out, the public was right, as Newfound Gold found his way to the Winner's Circle for the seventh time in his last eight races, hitting the wire a neck in front of # 6 My Secret Affair (12.60). Anyway, all that was moot as far as our play was concerned, as all our Pick Four tickets turned into trash right in the opening leg, as we had no part of Jeremy's Legacy, who won her North American debut by as many as she pleased.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 3 / 11 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $424.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Stealth Drone (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Red Carpet - # 11 Rusty Slipper (6.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Newfound Gold (3.20*) - "C" Selection
The public thought more highly of Newfound Gold's chances than we did, making him the Post Time Favorite in the finale. As it turned out, the public was right, as Newfound Gold found his way to the Winner's Circle for the seventh time in his last eight races, hitting the wire a neck in front of # 6 My Secret Affair (12.60). Anyway, all that was moot as far as our play was concerned, as all our Pick Four tickets turned into trash right in the opening leg, as we had no part of Jeremy's Legacy, who won her North American debut by as many as she pleased.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 3 / 11 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $424.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/21/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Fillies and mares dominate the back end of the card at Del Mar Saturday, with a three turn turf stakes serving as the featured race. And that's pretty much all I have for an introduction, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Whispering Softly (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 That's a Lady (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Sassy Ashley (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Deeds Not Words (ML 5-1)
# 10 Blessherheart (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lynne's Legacy (ML 9-2) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
That's a Lady, trained by John Sadler, owns the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; a figure which That's a Lady earned last time out in her debut. Note that runners trained by Sadler tend to do well when making their second attempt at graduating.
Whispering Softly took the Place in her debut at this class level last time out. Sassy Ashley, trained by Richard Baltas, showed some early quickness when she disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in her debut. Deeds Not Words gets a rider switch to Mike Smith for her second career start. Blessherheart, trained by Phil D'Amato, could improve with the surface switch.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Stealth Drone (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 8 Josephine's Moment (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Stealth Drone took the Place at this class level last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Josephine's Moment took the Show against Allowance company last time out on the plastic upstate. Three starts back Josephine's Moment took the Place at this class level over this main track.
RACE 8 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Elektrum (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 11 Rusty Slipper (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Three Hearts (ML 10-1)
# 4 Beat of The Drum (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Trophee (Fr) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Star Act (ML 8-1)
# 7 Havana Belle (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Soresca (Ire) (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Elektrum (Ire) seems to have a class edge over the rest of the field. Two starts back Elektrum took the Place in Grade 1 Rodeo Drive; three starts back she won the Grade 2 John C Mabee. Rusty Slipper, trained by Graham Motion, looks to be rounding nicely into form. Three Hearts is the defending champ, having won last year's running of this event.
Beat of The Drum (Ire) looks to be the most likely pace setter; if so, then it'll just be a matter of how far she can lead 'em. Trophee (Fr), trained by Christophe Clement, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in nearly half of her thirteen starts; but she did win at this distance at Saratoga this past August.
Star Act took the Show at today's distance two starts back in the CTT and TOC Handicap. Havana Belle (Ire), trained by Phil D'Amato, was running well late in her last start and could improve with the added distance.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Hadfunlastnight (ML 6-1)
# 3 Caminetto (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Ferocious (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Newfound Gold (ML 9-2)
# 7 Apollo Ten (ML 3-1)
Hadfunlastnight has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three races, and fits in well at this level of competition. The concern with Hadfunlastnight is the extended vacation, as he has not competed since February.
Caminetto, trained by Bob Baffert, is being priced to sell just four months after finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. Caminetto's works look strong enough to suggest that his poor effort last time out, when he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite against OC 40k/N1X competition, can be tossed.
Ferocious, like Caminetto, is dropping in for the lowest selling price of his career. Newfound Gold and Apollo Ten are a pair that are moving up in class, but whose most recent Beyer Speed Figures fit well at this level of competition.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 9,11 with 2,3 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,9 with 3,8 with 2,4,5,9,11 with 1,2,3 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3 with 9,11 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 6,7 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 9,11 with 4,7 $4.00
Total: $65.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Whispering Softly (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 That's a Lady (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Sassy Ashley (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Deeds Not Words (ML 5-1)
# 10 Blessherheart (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lynne's Legacy (ML 9-2) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
That's a Lady, trained by John Sadler, owns the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; a figure which That's a Lady earned last time out in her debut. Note that runners trained by Sadler tend to do well when making their second attempt at graduating.
Whispering Softly took the Place in her debut at this class level last time out. Sassy Ashley, trained by Richard Baltas, showed some early quickness when she disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in her debut. Deeds Not Words gets a rider switch to Mike Smith for her second career start. Blessherheart, trained by Phil D'Amato, could improve with the surface switch.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Stealth Drone (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 8 Josephine's Moment (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Stealth Drone took the Place at this class level last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Josephine's Moment took the Show against Allowance company last time out on the plastic upstate. Three starts back Josephine's Moment took the Place at this class level over this main track.
RACE 8 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Elektrum (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 11 Rusty Slipper (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Three Hearts (ML 10-1)
# 4 Beat of The Drum (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Trophee (Fr) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Star Act (ML 8-1)
# 7 Havana Belle (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Soresca (Ire) (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Elektrum (Ire) seems to have a class edge over the rest of the field. Two starts back Elektrum took the Place in Grade 1 Rodeo Drive; three starts back she won the Grade 2 John C Mabee. Rusty Slipper, trained by Graham Motion, looks to be rounding nicely into form. Three Hearts is the defending champ, having won last year's running of this event.
Beat of The Drum (Ire) looks to be the most likely pace setter; if so, then it'll just be a matter of how far she can lead 'em. Trophee (Fr), trained by Christophe Clement, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in nearly half of her thirteen starts; but she did win at this distance at Saratoga this past August.
Star Act took the Show at today's distance two starts back in the CTT and TOC Handicap. Havana Belle (Ire), trained by Phil D'Amato, was running well late in her last start and could improve with the added distance.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Hadfunlastnight (ML 6-1)
# 3 Caminetto (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Ferocious (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Newfound Gold (ML 9-2)
# 7 Apollo Ten (ML 3-1)
Hadfunlastnight has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three races, and fits in well at this level of competition. The concern with Hadfunlastnight is the extended vacation, as he has not competed since February.
Caminetto, trained by Bob Baffert, is being priced to sell just four months after finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. Caminetto's works look strong enough to suggest that his poor effort last time out, when he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite against OC 40k/N1X competition, can be tossed.
Ferocious, like Caminetto, is dropping in for the lowest selling price of his career. Newfound Gold and Apollo Ten are a pair that are moving up in class, but whose most recent Beyer Speed Figures fit well at this level of competition.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 9,11 with 2,3 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,9 with 3,8 with 2,4,5,9,11 with 1,2,3 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3 with 9,11 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 6,7 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 9,11 with 4,7 $4.00
Total: $65.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 15, 2015
11/15/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
Switching it up a bit today to see if we can change the winds of fortune. Moving our action upstate to Golden Gate Fields to take a run at their jackpot Golden Pick Six.
RACE 4 - (F) Md $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 What a Rainbow (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 3 Distinctive Run (ML 5-2)
C's
None
# 6 McCann's Half Full (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
What a Rainbow took the Place at this class level last time out. Distinctive Run removes the hood for Trainer Jeff Bonde, whose runners tend to do well with that equipment change.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Chardonnay Sherry (ML 5-1)
# 7 Explicable (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
None
Chardonnay Sherry goes first time for Trainer Rene Amescus, who wins with nearly a quarter of such. Explicable took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on turf) and could be the quickest out of the gate in this field.
RACE 6 - Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf EDIT: OFF TURF
A’s
# 2 All That Rocks (ML 9-2)
# 5 Slycy (ML 8-5)
# 7 Hope 'n Pray (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Justamitch (ML 4-1)
C's
None
All That Rocks took the Place at this class level last time out, a half length in front of Slycy. Hope 'n Pray defeated open $10k Claimers last time out, albeit on a fast dirt track. Justamitch took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on dirt) and could be the speed on the rail in this contest.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Raise the Roof (ML 3-1)
# 7 Renegade Run (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Melangeofgold (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Better in Leather (ML 10-1)
# 3 Candorosa (ML 6-1)
Raise the Roof showed some early speed in her debut last time out, and maidens making their second start tend to move forward for Trainer Greg James. Renegade Run has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure and the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Melangeofgold was sired by Harbor the Gold, whose juvenile progeny win about thirteen percent of their debuts. Better in Leather and Candorosa ship in from Emerald Downs for their respective second career starts after debuting against non-claiming maidens.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Go Mojave Go (ML 7-2)
# 6 Pazmeifucan (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
None
# 9 Nightime Olympics (No Line) is a program scratch. # 1 Johnnie B (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Go Mojave Go won at this class level at today's distance over this main track last time out. Pazmeifucan drops in from OC $62k / N2X company, where he has finished in the money in each of his last two races. Since both Go Mojave Go and Pazmeifucan are California breds, the conditions allow them to compete despite having already won at the N1X level, though they must each carry an additional two pounds.
RACE 9 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Brenda's Bar (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Three Strike Rule (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 Format V. (ML 4-1)
Brenda's Bar drops in class after earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Three Strike Rule took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on dirt) and could be speed on the rail. Format V. took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in semi-Crist fashion, as we're dropping the "All A Entries" tickets, since there's no need to price protect our top choices; and besides, it's a jackpot, and today just may be the luckiest day of our lives. So with that, we get:
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 3,5 with 3,7 with 1,2,5,7 with 5,6,7 with 5,6 with 1,2 $38.40
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 5 with 3,7 with 2,5,7 with 2,3 with 5,6 with 2 $4.80
Total: $48.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:14 EST / 2:14 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 4 - (F) Md $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 What a Rainbow (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 3 Distinctive Run (ML 5-2)
C's
None
# 6 McCann's Half Full (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
What a Rainbow took the Place at this class level last time out. Distinctive Run removes the hood for Trainer Jeff Bonde, whose runners tend to do well with that equipment change.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Chardonnay Sherry (ML 5-1)
# 7 Explicable (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
None
Chardonnay Sherry goes first time for Trainer Rene Amescus, who wins with nearly a quarter of such. Explicable took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on turf) and could be the quickest out of the gate in this field.
RACE 6 - Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf EDIT: OFF TURF
A’s
# 2 All That Rocks (ML 9-2)
# 5 Slycy (ML 8-5)
# 7 Hope 'n Pray (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Justamitch (ML 4-1)
C's
None
All That Rocks took the Place at this class level last time out, a half length in front of Slycy. Hope 'n Pray defeated open $10k Claimers last time out, albeit on a fast dirt track. Justamitch took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on dirt) and could be the speed on the rail in this contest.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Raise the Roof (ML 3-1)
# 7 Renegade Run (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Melangeofgold (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Better in Leather (ML 10-1)
# 3 Candorosa (ML 6-1)
Raise the Roof showed some early speed in her debut last time out, and maidens making their second start tend to move forward for Trainer Greg James. Renegade Run has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure and the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Melangeofgold was sired by Harbor the Gold, whose juvenile progeny win about thirteen percent of their debuts. Better in Leather and Candorosa ship in from Emerald Downs for their respective second career starts after debuting against non-claiming maidens.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Go Mojave Go (ML 7-2)
# 6 Pazmeifucan (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
None
# 9 Nightime Olympics (No Line) is a program scratch. # 1 Johnnie B (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Go Mojave Go won at this class level at today's distance over this main track last time out. Pazmeifucan drops in from OC $62k / N2X company, where he has finished in the money in each of his last two races. Since both Go Mojave Go and Pazmeifucan are California breds, the conditions allow them to compete despite having already won at the N1X level, though they must each carry an additional two pounds.
RACE 9 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Brenda's Bar (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Three Strike Rule (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 Format V. (ML 4-1)
Brenda's Bar drops in class after earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Three Strike Rule took the Place at this class level last time out (albeit on dirt) and could be speed on the rail. Format V. took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in semi-Crist fashion, as we're dropping the "All A Entries" tickets, since there's no need to price protect our top choices; and besides, it's a jackpot, and today just may be the luckiest day of our lives. So with that, we get:
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 3,5 with 3,7 with 1,2,5,7 with 5,6,7 with 5,6 with 1,2 $38.40
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 5 with 3,7 with 2,5,7 with 2,3 with 5,6 with 2 $4.80
$0.20 P6: 5 with 3,7 with 2,5,7 with 5,7 with 5,6 with 7 $4.80
Total: $48.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:14 EST / 2:14 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 14, 2015
11/14/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Socialized (Final Odds 10.30) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Rockport Kat (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 4 Toews On Ice (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Drefong (2.70) - "A" Selection
Well, as sometimes happens, we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket. Hindsight being twenty/twenty, it's clear that we shouldn't have rated # 2 Ya Ya Girl (1.70*) a "B" Selection in Race 6, as she has now gone to Post as the Favorite six straight times without getting her picture taken. Or maybe we should have given greater weight to those workouts that Rockport Kat posted, and realized that he was sitting on a big one. Or maybe we should have done any one of a thousand other things that we could have done to have either made Socialized a "B" Selection or Rockport Kat an "A" Selection. But we did none of those things, thus making today a day for us to contribute rather than collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 8 / 4 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $377.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Rockport Kat (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 4 Toews On Ice (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Drefong (2.70) - "A" Selection
Well, as sometimes happens, we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket. Hindsight being twenty/twenty, it's clear that we shouldn't have rated # 2 Ya Ya Girl (1.70*) a "B" Selection in Race 6, as she has now gone to Post as the Favorite six straight times without getting her picture taken. Or maybe we should have given greater weight to those workouts that Rockport Kat posted, and realized that he was sitting on a big one. Or maybe we should have done any one of a thousand other things that we could have done to have either made Socialized a "B" Selection or Rockport Kat an "A" Selection. But we did none of those things, thus making today a day for us to contribute rather than collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 8 / 4 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $377.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/14/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Juveniles compete in Saturday's feature race, as they prep for next month's Los Al Futurity, while other juveniles seek their first career win in the finale. We'll be looking at both those races below, as we take yet another run at The Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Arewehavingfunyet (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Entebbe (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Ya Ya Girl (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sweeter Thancandy (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Socialized (ML 4-1)
# 6 Art of War (ML 4-1)
None of the Also Eligibles (# 10 Darling Grace (ML 15-1): # 11 Carnival Lights (ML 3-1); # 12 Bijoux (ML 6-1)) draw in, so they get to spend the afternoon watching the college football games.
Ya Ya Girl has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last five races. Ya Ya Girl has finished in the money at today's class level, at a lower class level, and against more expensive. Ya Ya Girl is a horse with the proven talent to win who heretofore has shown a decided non-interest in winning. She goes on the ticket because, again, the talent is most definitely there and today may be the day that the light bulb finally clicks on; but I can't justify making her an "A" Selection.
Arewehavingfunyet just missed graduating last time out by a half length, taking the Show just behind Ya Ya Girl. Entebbe drops in for a tag for the first time in her career after finishing in the money her last four times out against non-claiming maidens. Normally that would make Entebbe a lone "A" Selection; but she's adding blinkers today, and Trainer Eric Kruljac doesn't often have success with runners putting on the hood for the first time.
Toss Sweeter Thancandy's last effort, when she was eased in the stretch, and this runner fits with the contenders here, and should outrun her odds today. Socialized took the Show against more expensive two starts back. Art of War closed well last time out.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Grazen Sky (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 7 Brimstoned (ML 5-2)
# 8 Rockport Kat (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Dead Easy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Better Bet (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Grazen Sky has taken the Place each of the last two times that he has competed at this class level. Brimstoned enters today's contest with a three race winning streak; but this is a pretty good sized step up the class ladder for Brimstoned, and I'm not so sure that I believe those most recent Beyer Speed Figures.
Rockport Kat was a tired horse last time out, but seems to have been working well for this contest. Dead Easy took the Place at this class level last time out, and could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Toews On Ice (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Street Vision (ML 8-1)
Toews On Ice, winner of the Speakeasy last time out, has really moved forward for Trainer Bob Baffert and looks to be best in this field, at least at this time. Street Vision chased Toews On Ice home in the Speakeasy; perhaps the extra furlong today will allow Street Vision to turn the tables.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Defrong (ML 7-2)
# 13 Basinca (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)
# 4 Watch My Dust (ML 6-1)
# 9 Blue Navy Blue (ML 20-1)
# 10 Cleanup Hitter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Kionntal (ML 9-2)
# 1 Agronomy (ML 5-1), # 6 Triple Clown (ML 8-1), and # 8 Stash of Cash (ML 30-1) have been scratched. Bring in # 13 Basinca (ML 5-2) and # 14 Hunters Vow (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Defrong showed some speed in his debut last time out, despite running greenly. Basinca took the Place last time out at this class level in his debut.
Eric the Trojan, Blue Navy Blue, and Cleanup Hitter are all first time starters for trainers who tend to do well with debut runners. Watch My Dust took the Place in his debut at this class level last time out. Kionntal is a first time starter who has been working well at Santa Anita leading up to this contest.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 4 with 7,13 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,8 with 6,7,8 with 4 with 3,4,7,9,10,13 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 6 with 4 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 4 with 4 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 3 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 4 with 2 $1.00
Total: $47.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Arewehavingfunyet (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Entebbe (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Ya Ya Girl (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sweeter Thancandy (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Socialized (ML 4-1)
# 6 Art of War (ML 4-1)
None of the Also Eligibles (# 10 Darling Grace (ML 15-1): # 11 Carnival Lights (ML 3-1); # 12 Bijoux (ML 6-1)) draw in, so they get to spend the afternoon watching the college football games.
Ya Ya Girl has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last five races. Ya Ya Girl has finished in the money at today's class level, at a lower class level, and against more expensive. Ya Ya Girl is a horse with the proven talent to win who heretofore has shown a decided non-interest in winning. She goes on the ticket because, again, the talent is most definitely there and today may be the day that the light bulb finally clicks on; but I can't justify making her an "A" Selection.
Arewehavingfunyet just missed graduating last time out by a half length, taking the Show just behind Ya Ya Girl. Entebbe drops in for a tag for the first time in her career after finishing in the money her last four times out against non-claiming maidens. Normally that would make Entebbe a lone "A" Selection; but she's adding blinkers today, and Trainer Eric Kruljac doesn't often have success with runners putting on the hood for the first time.
Toss Sweeter Thancandy's last effort, when she was eased in the stretch, and this runner fits with the contenders here, and should outrun her odds today. Socialized took the Show against more expensive two starts back. Art of War closed well last time out.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Grazen Sky (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 7 Brimstoned (ML 5-2)
# 8 Rockport Kat (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Dead Easy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Better Bet (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Grazen Sky has taken the Place each of the last two times that he has competed at this class level. Brimstoned enters today's contest with a three race winning streak; but this is a pretty good sized step up the class ladder for Brimstoned, and I'm not so sure that I believe those most recent Beyer Speed Figures.
Rockport Kat was a tired horse last time out, but seems to have been working well for this contest. Dead Easy took the Place at this class level last time out, and could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Toews On Ice (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Street Vision (ML 8-1)
Toews On Ice, winner of the Speakeasy last time out, has really moved forward for Trainer Bob Baffert and looks to be best in this field, at least at this time. Street Vision chased Toews On Ice home in the Speakeasy; perhaps the extra furlong today will allow Street Vision to turn the tables.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Defrong (ML 7-2)
# 13 Basinca (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)
# 4 Watch My Dust (ML 6-1)
# 9 Blue Navy Blue (ML 20-1)
# 10 Cleanup Hitter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Kionntal (ML 9-2)
# 1 Agronomy (ML 5-1), # 6 Triple Clown (ML 8-1), and # 8 Stash of Cash (ML 30-1) have been scratched. Bring in # 13 Basinca (ML 5-2) and # 14 Hunters Vow (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Defrong showed some speed in his debut last time out, despite running greenly. Basinca took the Place last time out at this class level in his debut.
Eric the Trojan, Blue Navy Blue, and Cleanup Hitter are all first time starters for trainers who tend to do well with debut runners. Watch My Dust took the Place in his debut at this class level last time out. Kionntal is a first time starter who has been working well at Santa Anita leading up to this contest.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 4 with 7,13 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,8 with 6,7,8 with 4 with 3,4,7,9,10,13 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 6 with 4 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 4 with 4 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 3 with 7,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 6 with 4 with 2 $1.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 8, 2015
11/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Tusk (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Oligarch (8.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 5 My Monet (2.40*) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Trust Your Gut (6.80) - "B" Selection
We started well and ended well; but in-between, not so well. I didn't pick Oligarch to repeat because I didn't think he'd be able to set the pace again today; but when # 10 Power Jam (0.60*) bobbled at the start Oligarch was able to lead the pack early and then hold on to win the photo at the end. And I didn't anticipate that today, in her nineteenth career start, My Monet would get her first stakes win, crossing the wire a half length in front of # 1 Kiss At Midnight (3.80).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $184.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 Oligarch (8.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 5 My Monet (2.40*) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Trust Your Gut (6.80) - "B" Selection
We started well and ended well; but in-between, not so well. I didn't pick Oligarch to repeat because I didn't think he'd be able to set the pace again today; but when # 10 Power Jam (0.60*) bobbled at the start Oligarch was able to lead the pack early and then hold on to win the photo at the end. And I didn't anticipate that today, in her nineteenth career start, My Monet would get her first stakes win, crossing the wire a half length in front of # 1 Kiss At Midnight (3.80).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $184.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Juvenile non-claiming maidens going two turns on the grass comprises half of the final four races on Sunday's card at Del Mar; if we can solve those two puzzles, I think we stand an excellent chance of hitting the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Tusk (Morning Line 8-5)
# 8 Iron Rob (ML 6-1)
B's
# 7 Osceola Pond (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Papa Gulf (ML 8-1)
# 1 The Topester (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Tusk has finished in the Trifecta in all three of his career starts, all on the grass, all around two turns. The trouble comments from his most recent effort says that he hung in the stretch (that is, he did not pass his rival to take the lead approaching the wire despite having every opportunity to do so). Trainer Graham Motion, who had previously run Tusk in New York and Kentucky, now sends this juvenile to SoCal and engages the services of Jockey Mike Smith in the hopes that the change of scenery may be what Tusk needs in order to graduate.
Iron Rob tries both grass and two turns for the first time today. Iron Rob is sired by Twirling Candy, so he certainly has the breeding to handle both the surface and the distance. Iron Rob has also shown good early speed in his dirt contests, so he just may steal this one on the front end at a nice price.
Osceola Pond took the Place at this class level at today's distance on the turf last time out. Papa Gulf ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Logan's Moon (ML 4-1)
# 10 Power Jam (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Tusk (Morning Line 8-5)
# 8 Iron Rob (ML 6-1)
B's
# 7 Osceola Pond (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Papa Gulf (ML 8-1)
# 1 The Topester (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Tusk has finished in the Trifecta in all three of his career starts, all on the grass, all around two turns. The trouble comments from his most recent effort says that he hung in the stretch (that is, he did not pass his rival to take the lead approaching the wire despite having every opportunity to do so). Trainer Graham Motion, who had previously run Tusk in New York and Kentucky, now sends this juvenile to SoCal and engages the services of Jockey Mike Smith in the hopes that the change of scenery may be what Tusk needs in order to graduate.
Iron Rob tries both grass and two turns for the first time today. Iron Rob is sired by Twirling Candy, so he certainly has the breeding to handle both the surface and the distance. Iron Rob has also shown good early speed in his dirt contests, so he just may steal this one on the front end at a nice price.
Osceola Pond took the Place at this class level at today's distance on the turf last time out. Papa Gulf ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Logan's Moon (ML 4-1)
# 10 Power Jam (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 11 Dreaming of Gold (ML 6-1)
# 7 Kristi's Copilot (No Line) is a program scratch. # 3 Kill Shot (ML 15-1), # 8 Golden Atlantic (ML 5-1), and # 9 Guy Code (ML 20-1) have also been scratched.
Logan's Moon has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Power Jam was a clear winner in his debut last time out; but that was back in February. However, Power Jam has been working well leading up to this contest, and Trainer Bob Baffert tends to do well with runners returning from an extended vacation.
Dreaming of Gold ships in from the east and runs for the first time for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Dreaming of Gold has taken the Place in each of his two prior career starts on a fast dirt track.
RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Our Pure Creation (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Kiss At Midnight (ML 4-1)
# 4 Wild in the Saddle (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Our Pure Creation was the winner of the $100k California Distaff Handicap last time out, with Kiss At Midnight taking the Place a length and a half behind her. Wild in the Saddle, trained by Richard Baltas, won the $108k Tranquility Lake Stakes two starts back.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Archaeo (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Trust Your Gut (ML 5-1)
# 6 Silent Movies (ML 15-1)
# 7 Tristan's Trilogy (ML 4-1)
# 8 Gotnoquit (ML 5-1)
C's
None
# 1 Wise Tale (ML 20-1) and # 10 San Dimas (ML 8-1) have been scratched.
Archaeo, Trust Your Gut, and Tristan's Trilogy were second, third, and fourth (respectively) in the same contest last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita at this class level; a race which was the first turf try for each of those three juveniles.
Silent Movies broke poorly in his first try on the turf, charging down the Santa Anita hill; perhaps this John Sadler trained juvenile didn't like the view from up there, and will improve running on the flats. Gotnoquit was also in that contest with Silent Movies, and took the Show.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,8 with 1,10 with 3 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,7,8 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 with 2,3,6,7,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,10 with 3 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 11 with 3 with 2 $1.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 7, 2015
11/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Glory (Final Odds 1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 All Run (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Kathryn Crosby - # 8 Full Ransom (17.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Shiny Nugget (21.90) - No Selection
We had the chalk covered in the first half of the sequence; but we had no part of Full Ransom winning her first stakes race since November 2013; nor did we figure first time starter Shiny Nugget would be the one to snap Trainer Hector Palma's oh-for-twenty-seven streak with two year old runners. And to be quite honest, if you allowed me to re-handicap those two contests now, I have my doubts that I would find either of those winners the second time around, let alone both.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 5 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,856.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 All Run (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Kathryn Crosby - # 8 Full Ransom (17.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Shiny Nugget (21.90) - No Selection
We had the chalk covered in the first half of the sequence; but we had no part of Full Ransom winning her first stakes race since November 2013; nor did we figure first time starter Shiny Nugget would be the one to snap Trainer Hector Palma's oh-for-twenty-seven streak with two year old runners. And to be quite honest, if you allowed me to re-handicap those two contests now, I have my doubts that I would find either of those winners the second time around, let alone both.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 5 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,856.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
First things first: as we return from Breeders' Cup weekend, we would be remiss if we didn't take a moment to express our gratitude to the good people at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, NV for the wonderful job they did during our stay last week. Needless to say, it was an absolute joy to get together with the rest of the crew; and one of the main reasons why it was yet another joyful occasion was due to the Grade A job performed by the staff of the Green Valley Ranch hotel and casino in general, and the Race and Sports Book in particular. So a huge "Thank You" to Bert Cirincione, Celena Sams, Sharon our cocktail waitress, and all the employees at Green Valley Ranch for a job very well done!
Turning back to today, we're in the midst of the Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar, with fillies and mares on the grass accounting for half of the card's bottom, including the featured eighth race, The Kathryn Crosby. So let's get to it, as we take a run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Havanna Belle (Ire) (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Spirit of Ten (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Causeway Carolyn (ML 5-1)
# 5 Glory (ML 5-2)
# 8 Last Kiss (Brz) (ML 6-1)
C's
None
# 3 Intoxicating Move (ML 8-1) and # 4 Shysheisnot (ML 20-1) have been scratched.
Havanna Belle (Ire) gets some class relief after taking the Show behind Curlin's Fox last time out in the Sandy Blue Handicap. Spirit of Ten comes into this contest with a three race winning streak, all earned on some California grass. Spirit of Ten is two-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar turf, and shows a steady workout pattern since her last race on September 5.
Causeway Carolyn took the Show at this class level last time out. Glory steps up in class while going long for the first time in her career; not a combination on which you want to accept short odds. But the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with Jockey Mike Smith deserves to be respected in this spot.
Last Kiss (Brz) took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern is that runners for Trainer Neil Drysdale tend not to move forward in their second start off an extended layoff.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 All Run (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Kafister (ML 4-1)
C's
None
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 8-1) and # 4 Cautious Giant (ML 4-1) have been scratched.
All Run takes a step up the class ladder after winning by as many as he wanted last time out. Kafister found seven furlongs to be a bridge too far last time out while taking the Show at this class level, and should appreciate the turn back in distance.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Kathryn Crosby $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Nashoba's Gold (ML 5-1)
# 5 Beat of The Drum (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Three Hearts (ML 7-2)
# 7 Chaulk O Lattey (ML 3-1)
C's
Turning back to today, we're in the midst of the Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar, with fillies and mares on the grass accounting for half of the card's bottom, including the featured eighth race, The Kathryn Crosby. So let's get to it, as we take a run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Havanna Belle (Ire) (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Spirit of Ten (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Causeway Carolyn (ML 5-1)
# 5 Glory (ML 5-2)
# 8 Last Kiss (Brz) (ML 6-1)
C's
None
# 3 Intoxicating Move (ML 8-1) and # 4 Shysheisnot (ML 20-1) have been scratched.
Havanna Belle (Ire) gets some class relief after taking the Show behind Curlin's Fox last time out in the Sandy Blue Handicap. Spirit of Ten comes into this contest with a three race winning streak, all earned on some California grass. Spirit of Ten is two-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar turf, and shows a steady workout pattern since her last race on September 5.
Causeway Carolyn took the Show at this class level last time out. Glory steps up in class while going long for the first time in her career; not a combination on which you want to accept short odds. But the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with Jockey Mike Smith deserves to be respected in this spot.
Last Kiss (Brz) took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern is that runners for Trainer Neil Drysdale tend not to move forward in their second start off an extended layoff.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 All Run (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Kafister (ML 4-1)
C's
None
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 8-1) and # 4 Cautious Giant (ML 4-1) have been scratched.
All Run takes a step up the class ladder after winning by as many as he wanted last time out. Kafister found seven furlongs to be a bridge too far last time out while taking the Show at this class level, and should appreciate the turn back in distance.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Kathryn Crosby $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Nashoba's Gold (ML 5-1)
# 5 Beat of The Drum (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Three Hearts (ML 7-2)
# 7 Chaulk O Lattey (ML 3-1)
C's
None
# 4 Cast in Silver (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
The restriction given in the conditions is that this contest is open only to those horses that have not won a stakes of $50k or more at a mile or over since April 1, 2015. The $50k refers to the winner's share of the stakes, not to the entire purse, while state restricted races don't count, so horses could have won as many of those as they wanted and still been eligible.
Nashoba's Gold won a pair of Graded Stakes on the turf in 2014 as a three year old, but had to go on the shelf after losing by over four lengths in the Grade 2 Buena Vista back in February. Nashoba's Gold shows a steady workout pattern over the past month, and gains the services of Jockey Mike Smith for the first time in her career. If she's ready to run, and it looks like she is, Nashoba's Gold should be the one to beat here.
Beat of The Drum (Ire) beat OC 62k/N2X company on the grass last time out by wiring the field, but her form shows a stakes win overseas that was earned by coming off the pace; so she doesn't need the lead to win. Three Hearts gets some class relief after competing against nothing but Graded Stakes company over the past twelve months. Chaulk O Lattey has finished in the Exacta in both of her two career starts on this turf course.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Small Town Shuffle (ML 8-1)
B's
# 1 Superside (ML 10-1)
# 8 Twisted Earl (6-1)
C's
# 9 Blue Copper (ML 9-2)
# 10 Purrin' Proud (ML 6-1)
# 12 Unbridled Rocket (ML 7-2) has been scracthed; but # 13 Gone With It (ML 6-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.
Small Town Shuffle took the Place at this class level two starts back. Superside showed good early speed in his debut last time out. Twisted Earl took the Show against non-claiming maidens last time out, albeit on the turf upstate.
Blue Copper is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Hess, Jr, who tends to do well with runners debuting with a price tag on their head. Purrin' Proud took the Place at this class level last time out, and should be forwardly placed.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 5 with 1,5 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,2,5,7 with 1,2,8 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 5 with 1,5 with 9,10 $4.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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