Sunday, November 8, 2015

11/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Juvenile non-claiming maidens going two turns on the grass comprises half of the final four races on Sunday's card at Del Mar; if we can solve those two puzzles, I think we stand an excellent chance of hitting the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Tusk (Morning Line 8-5)
# 8 Iron Rob (ML 6-1)

B's

# 7 Osceola Pond (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Papa Gulf (ML 8-1)

# 1 The Topester (ML 10-1) has been scratched.

Tusk has finished in the Trifecta in all three of his career starts, all on the grass, all around two turns.  The trouble comments from his most recent effort says that he hung in the stretch (that is, he did not pass his rival to take the lead approaching the wire despite having every opportunity to do so).  Trainer Graham Motion, who had previously run Tusk in New York and Kentucky, now sends this juvenile to SoCal and engages the services of Jockey Mike Smith in the hopes that the change of scenery may be what Tusk needs in order to graduate. 

Iron Rob tries both grass and two turns for the first time today.  Iron Rob is sired by Twirling Candy, so he certainly has the breeding to handle both the surface and the distance.  Iron Rob has also shown good early speed in his dirt contests, so he just may steal this one on the front end at a nice price.

Osceola Pond took the Place at this class level at today's distance on the turf last time out.  Papa Gulf ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Logan's Moon (ML 4-1)
# 10 Power Jam (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 11 Dreaming of Gold (ML 6-1)

# 7 Kristi's Copilot (No Line) is a program scratch.  # 3 Kill Shot (ML 15-1), # 8 Golden Atlantic (ML 5-1), and # 9 Guy Code (ML 20-1) have also been scratched.

Logan's Moon has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Power Jam was a clear winner in his debut last time out; but that was back in February.  However, Power Jam has been working well leading up to this contest, and Trainer Bob Baffert tends to do well with runners returning from an extended vacation.  

Dreaming of Gold ships in from the east and runs for the first time for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  Dreaming of Gold has taken the Place in each of his two prior career starts on a fast dirt track.

RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Our Pure Creation (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Kiss At Midnight (ML 4-1)
# 4 Wild in the Saddle (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Our Pure Creation was the winner of the $100k California Distaff Handicap last time out, with Kiss At Midnight taking the Place a length and a half behind her.  Wild in the Saddle, trained by Richard Baltas, won the $108k Tranquility Lake Stakes two starts back.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Archaeo (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Trust Your Gut (ML 5-1)
# 6 Silent Movies (ML 15-1)
# 7 Tristan's Trilogy (ML 4-1)
# 8 Gotnoquit (ML 5-1)

C's

None

# 1 Wise Tale (ML 20-1) and # 10 San Dimas (ML 8-1) have been scratched.

Archaeo, Trust Your Gut, and Tristan's Trilogy were second, third, and fourth (respectively) in the same contest last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita at this class level; a race which was the first turf try for each of those three juveniles.  

Silent Movies broke poorly in his first try on the turf, charging down the Santa Anita hill; perhaps this John Sadler trained juvenile didn't like the view from up there, and will improve running on the flats.  Gotnoquit was also in that contest with Silent Movies, and took the Show.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,8 with 1,10 with 3 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,8 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 with 2,3,6,7,8 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,10 with 3 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 11 with 3 with 2 $1.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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