Race 10 - The San Francisco Mile - # 2 Blitzkrieg (Final Odds 3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Rush (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Camilla Urso - # 3 S Y Sky (0.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 13 - # 3 Tooley Tunes (4.30) - "B" Selection
I'll be honest; I really didn't give much thought to Blitzkrieg in the opening leg of the sequence. But the four year old gelding, who was claimed for $25k (out of an N2L contest) by Trainer Doug O'Neill this past January, proved his three race winning streak entering Saturday's Graded Stake was no fluke; as Blitzkrieg won by daylight, crossing under the wire more than a length in front of Place finisher # 10 River Boyne (Ire) (1.60*). And that was the difference Saturday between me cashing and contributing, as the other three winners in the sequence were all to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $89.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 27, 2019
4/27/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Gold Rush Weekend at Golden Gate Fields, and among the happenings are a mandatory payout of the Golden Pick Six pool. However, as seemingly happens a disproportional number of times, the Pick Six pool is empty, the jackpot having been scooped the day prior to the mandatory payout. Still, there's plenty to like about Saturday's card in Northern California, with a baker's dozen assortment of races, including a half dozen stakes. Among the stakes is the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile, which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 10 - The San Francisco Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Bowies Hero (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 7 Grecian Fire (ML 15-1)
# 10 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Blitzkrieg (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mithqaal (ML 20-1)
# 4 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Wentwood (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Many Roses (ML 15-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 15-1)
# 9 Souter (GB) (ML 6-1)
Bowies Hero disappointed mightily in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap last time out. However, Bowies Hero has been working well for this, his 2019 debut; and once you toss that last outing, Bowies Hero looks like the clear one to beat.
Grecian Fire closed very well the last time he went around two turns on the turf. River Boyne (Ire) can win from anywhere on the course.
Le Ken (Arg) fits well here with the contenders; but ultimately I decided to leave Le Ken off my main ticket, as it seems that he often runs well without being able to find the winner's circle. So I'll be using Le Ken as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rush (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Pampers n' Boots (ML 3-1)
# 2 King Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Candy Crew (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Zippy Groom (ML 8-1)
# 5 Zakaroff (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jump the Tracks (ML 7-2)
# 8 Sure Proof (ML 20-1)
The Past Performances that I have for this race list it as an N2L; but that's obviously wrong, as the conditions itself state that Maiden, Claiming and Starter Races for $10k or less are not considered. Note also that every runner in this field has visited the winner's circle multiple times.
Rush is moving up in class; but Trainer Jedd Josephson tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Pampers n' Boots could move up with the class drop.
King Eddie should rebound well off that non-effort last time out against more expensive stock. Candy Crew took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - (F) The Camilla Urso $75k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Alliford Bay (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Vronilla Parfait (ML 15-1)
# 3 S Y Sky (ML 9-5)
# 5 Go On Mary (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 I Love Romance (ML 15-1)
# 6 Ima Happy Cat (ML 10-1)
# 7 Claudia Mae (ML 15-1)
# 8 Impecunious (ML 20-1)
# 9 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
Alliford Bay misses by just three quarters of a length of entering this contest with a six race winning streak. It's fair to presume that Alliford Bay will improve going second off the layoff.
Vronilla Parfait closed very well the last time that she sprinted on the turf. S Y Sky could improve with the cutback in distance. Go On Mary could be the one that they'll have to catch to win. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - (F) Md $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Noumea (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Why Are U So Sweet (ML 10-1)
# 3 Tooley Tunes (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tiz a Dreamer (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Legendarybloodline (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tooclosetocall (ML 20-1)
# 6 Run for a Million (ML 5-1)
# 7 Freedom Seeker (ML 20-1)
# 8 Frosted Silver (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Swish (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Ride Out the Storm (ML 5-2) and # 12 Belltown Belle (ML 2-1)
Noumea has thrice finished in the Trifecta against more expensive stock. Tooley Tunes and Why Are U So Sweet filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta the last time they went around two turns. Tiz a Dreamer could do well in her first try at routing. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,7,10 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,5 with 2,3,4,10 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 3 with 1 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,5,7,8 with 1 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 4,6,7,8,9 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 1,5,6,7,8,9 $3.00
Total: $108.00
Post Time for Race 10 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 10 - The San Francisco Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Bowies Hero (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 7 Grecian Fire (ML 15-1)
# 10 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Blitzkrieg (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mithqaal (ML 20-1)
# 4 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Wentwood (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Many Roses (ML 15-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 15-1)
# 9 Souter (GB) (ML 6-1)
Bowies Hero disappointed mightily in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap last time out. However, Bowies Hero has been working well for this, his 2019 debut; and once you toss that last outing, Bowies Hero looks like the clear one to beat.
Grecian Fire closed very well the last time he went around two turns on the turf. River Boyne (Ire) can win from anywhere on the course.
Le Ken (Arg) fits well here with the contenders; but ultimately I decided to leave Le Ken off my main ticket, as it seems that he often runs well without being able to find the winner's circle. So I'll be using Le Ken as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rush (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Pampers n' Boots (ML 3-1)
# 2 King Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Candy Crew (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Zippy Groom (ML 8-1)
# 5 Zakaroff (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jump the Tracks (ML 7-2)
# 8 Sure Proof (ML 20-1)
The Past Performances that I have for this race list it as an N2L; but that's obviously wrong, as the conditions itself state that Maiden, Claiming and Starter Races for $10k or less are not considered. Note also that every runner in this field has visited the winner's circle multiple times.
Rush is moving up in class; but Trainer Jedd Josephson tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Pampers n' Boots could move up with the class drop.
King Eddie should rebound well off that non-effort last time out against more expensive stock. Candy Crew took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - (F) The Camilla Urso $75k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Alliford Bay (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Vronilla Parfait (ML 15-1)
# 3 S Y Sky (ML 9-5)
# 5 Go On Mary (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 I Love Romance (ML 15-1)
# 6 Ima Happy Cat (ML 10-1)
# 7 Claudia Mae (ML 15-1)
# 8 Impecunious (ML 20-1)
# 9 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
Alliford Bay misses by just three quarters of a length of entering this contest with a six race winning streak. It's fair to presume that Alliford Bay will improve going second off the layoff.
Vronilla Parfait closed very well the last time that she sprinted on the turf. S Y Sky could improve with the cutback in distance. Go On Mary could be the one that they'll have to catch to win. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - (F) Md $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Noumea (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Why Are U So Sweet (ML 10-1)
# 3 Tooley Tunes (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tiz a Dreamer (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Legendarybloodline (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tooclosetocall (ML 20-1)
# 6 Run for a Million (ML 5-1)
# 7 Freedom Seeker (ML 20-1)
# 8 Frosted Silver (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Swish (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Ride Out the Storm (ML 5-2) and # 12 Belltown Belle (ML 2-1)
Noumea has thrice finished in the Trifecta against more expensive stock. Tooley Tunes and Why Are U So Sweet filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta the last time they went around two turns. Tiz a Dreamer could do well in her first try at routing. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,7,10 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,5 with 2,3,4,10 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 3 with 1 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,5,7,8 with 1 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 4,6,7,8,9 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 1,5,6,7,8,9 $3.00
Total: $108.00
Post Time for Race 10 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 20, 2019
4/20/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 2 Seaside Dancer (Final Odds 2.40*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 13 Don't Sell (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Tough It Out (2.10*) - via DQ* - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Florista (Ire) (2.10) - "B" Selection
* # 5 Alive and Well (3.70) crossed under the wire first in Race 9 but was disqualified and placed 8th.
I went back and forth during my analysis regarding whether or not to give Seaside Dancer a spot on the main ticket. I ultimately decided to relegate Seaside Dancer to backup "C" Selection status, as I had concerns about her ability to handle the eight furlongs.
Well, as you can see above, I was wrong about Seaside Dancer's ability to handle the distance in the opening leg, as she was able to lead the field all the way around the course, holding off "B" Selection # 3 Gorgeous in Grey (4.90) in the stretch to win by a neck. And that neck was the difference between me collecting and contributing, as the other three winners were all to be found on the main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 13 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $91.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 13 Don't Sell (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Tough It Out (2.10*) - via DQ* - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Florista (Ire) (2.10) - "B" Selection
* # 5 Alive and Well (3.70) crossed under the wire first in Race 9 but was disqualified and placed 8th.
I went back and forth during my analysis regarding whether or not to give Seaside Dancer a spot on the main ticket. I ultimately decided to relegate Seaside Dancer to backup "C" Selection status, as I had concerns about her ability to handle the eight furlongs.
Well, as you can see above, I was wrong about Seaside Dancer's ability to handle the distance in the opening leg, as she was able to lead the field all the way around the course, holding off "B" Selection # 3 Gorgeous in Grey (4.90) in the stretch to win by a neck. And that neck was the difference between me collecting and contributing, as the other three winners were all to be found on the main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 13 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $91.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/20/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
"Don't mess with a winning streak;" or so the saying goes (though it's often stated more colorfully); and while it may be an extremely modest streak of only one, I'm going to respect the streak and stick with where it began last week. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Babe Didrikson (Morning Line 8-5)
B’s
# 3 Gorgeous in Grey (ML 6-1)
# 8 Hi Skool Sweethart (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 She's a Spy (ML 20-1)
# 2 Seaside Dancer (ML 3-1)
# 4 Orca (ML 12-1)
# 5 Secret Wind (ML 10-1)
# 7 Beautiful Creature (ML 10-1)
Babe Didrikson tries turf for the first time while getting some significant class relief. Seaside Dancer graduated convincingly last time out, albeit while sprinting over the main track. Gorgeous in Grey ran well enough in each of her prior two tries on the lawn to win at this class level. Hi Skool Sweethart could get a nice stalking trip from the outermost post.
Seaside Dancer is one that you might want to consider upgrading in your play, as Seaside Dancer did graduate convincingly last time out while sprinting over the main track. Seaside Dancer also has the pedigree to suggest that she will do well on the lawn. However, I'm not convinced that Seaside Dancer is ready to win while going around two turns; so for that reason, I'll be using Seaside Dancer as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Check Out (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 A Lonna At the Top (ML 4-1)
# 9 Real Keeper (ML 8-1)
# 13 Don't Sell (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Jaimi James (ML 10-1)
# 2 El Bell Camp (ML 12-1)
# 3 Zahra (ML 8-1)
# 5 Oligarcy (ML 20-1)
# 8 Lis La Victoire (ML 30-1)
# 11 Rolinga (ML 20-1)
# 12 Blue Butterfly (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 Rebalation (ML 9-2); # 10 Aleda Lutz (ML 5-1); and # 14 Love Solution (ML 10-1)
Check Out took the Place at this class level last time out. A Lonna At the Top took the Show against open non-claiming maidens last time out. Real Keeper took the Place in her debut last time out, albeit while running with a price tag on her head.
Don't Sell ships in from downstate and draws in off the Also-Eligible List for Trainer Doug O'Neill. Don't Sell could benefit from the class relief. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Tough it Out (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 More Power to Him (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unusually Green (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Malibu Alex (ML 10-1)
# 4 Harvest a Storm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Alive and Well (ML 8-1)
# 7 Secreto Primero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Rideo (ML 8-1)
Tough It Out ships in from downstate for Trainer John Sadler. Tough It Out fits well here on class, and Tough It Out ran well in his one prior try over this turf course.
More Power to Him took the Show in each of his last two races against more expensive stock; albeit over the main track. Unusually Green won by daylight the last time that he competed over this turf course. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Married by Now (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Vonhra (ML 9-2)
# 7 Florista (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Zensational Kiss (ML 6-1)
# 5 Somara (ML 10-1)
# 9 She's in Luck (ML 20-1)
# 10 Apphia (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Smokinhotredhead (ML 10-1); # 2 Champ for Justice (ML 10-1); and # 8 Alta Ky (ML 30-1)
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Babe Didrikson (Morning Line 8-5)
B’s
# 3 Gorgeous in Grey (ML 6-1)
# 8 Hi Skool Sweethart (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 She's a Spy (ML 20-1)
# 2 Seaside Dancer (ML 3-1)
# 4 Orca (ML 12-1)
# 5 Secret Wind (ML 10-1)
# 7 Beautiful Creature (ML 10-1)
Babe Didrikson tries turf for the first time while getting some significant class relief. Seaside Dancer graduated convincingly last time out, albeit while sprinting over the main track. Gorgeous in Grey ran well enough in each of her prior two tries on the lawn to win at this class level. Hi Skool Sweethart could get a nice stalking trip from the outermost post.
Seaside Dancer is one that you might want to consider upgrading in your play, as Seaside Dancer did graduate convincingly last time out while sprinting over the main track. Seaside Dancer also has the pedigree to suggest that she will do well on the lawn. However, I'm not convinced that Seaside Dancer is ready to win while going around two turns; so for that reason, I'll be using Seaside Dancer as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Check Out (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 A Lonna At the Top (ML 4-1)
# 9 Real Keeper (ML 8-1)
# 13 Don't Sell (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Jaimi James (ML 10-1)
# 2 El Bell Camp (ML 12-1)
# 3 Zahra (ML 8-1)
# 5 Oligarcy (ML 20-1)
# 8 Lis La Victoire (ML 30-1)
# 11 Rolinga (ML 20-1)
# 12 Blue Butterfly (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 Rebalation (ML 9-2); # 10 Aleda Lutz (ML 5-1); and # 14 Love Solution (ML 10-1)
Check Out took the Place at this class level last time out. A Lonna At the Top took the Show against open non-claiming maidens last time out. Real Keeper took the Place in her debut last time out, albeit while running with a price tag on her head.
Don't Sell ships in from downstate and draws in off the Also-Eligible List for Trainer Doug O'Neill. Don't Sell could benefit from the class relief. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Tough it Out (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 More Power to Him (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unusually Green (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Malibu Alex (ML 10-1)
# 4 Harvest a Storm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Alive and Well (ML 8-1)
# 7 Secreto Primero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Rideo (ML 8-1)
Tough It Out ships in from downstate for Trainer John Sadler. Tough It Out fits well here on class, and Tough It Out ran well in his one prior try over this turf course.
More Power to Him took the Show in each of his last two races against more expensive stock; albeit over the main track. Unusually Green won by daylight the last time that he competed over this turf course. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Married by Now (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Vonhra (ML 9-2)
# 7 Florista (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Zensational Kiss (ML 6-1)
# 5 Somara (ML 10-1)
# 9 She's in Luck (ML 20-1)
# 10 Apphia (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Smokinhotredhead (ML 10-1); # 2 Champ for Justice (ML 10-1); and # 8 Alta Ky (ML 30-1)
Married by Now, Vonhra, and Florista (Ire) filled out the bottom three rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are what's left of the rest of the field after all the vet scratches.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 6,7,9,13 with 2,3,6 with 3,6,7 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7 with 7 with 2 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,5,8,11,12 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 1,4,5,7,8 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 2 with 4,5,9,10 $2.00
Total: $65.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 13, 2019
4/13/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Miss Boisterous (Final Odds 1.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 10 Posit (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 On the Key (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Aidan's Harbor (6.00) - "B" Selection
All things considered, I'd say that I made the right choice by playing Golden Gate Saturday rather than its downstate partner; not merely because the former's Late Pick Four paid more than four and a half times what the latter's paid; but, more importantly, because I had it (since, after all, what difference does it make what it paid if you didn't collect?).
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Startender (17.60) - $986.20 Finish: 9th
# 7 Awesome Ain't Easy (3.00) - $212.50 Finish: 2nd
# 8 Empire Rocket (2.70*) - $326.15 Finish: 8th
# 10 Tiz Toussaud (6.50) - $410.10 Finish: 4th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 10 / 7 / 3 which paid $638.20 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $536.20 on my initial $102 investment, or approximate odds of 5.26-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 10 Posit (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 On the Key (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Aidan's Harbor (6.00) - "B" Selection
All things considered, I'd say that I made the right choice by playing Golden Gate Saturday rather than its downstate partner; not merely because the former's Late Pick Four paid more than four and a half times what the latter's paid; but, more importantly, because I had it (since, after all, what difference does it make what it paid if you didn't collect?).
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Startender (17.60) - $986.20 Finish: 9th
# 7 Awesome Ain't Easy (3.00) - $212.50 Finish: 2nd
# 8 Empire Rocket (2.70*) - $326.15 Finish: 8th
# 10 Tiz Toussaud (6.50) - $410.10 Finish: 4th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 10 / 7 / 3 which paid $638.20 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $536.20 on my initial $102 investment, or approximate odds of 5.26-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/13/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
Long story short, it's all about the entries. Santa Anita has a total of twenty-eight runners entered in its final four races on Saturday; Golden Gate has thirty-nine. Larger fields tend to mean larger payoffs for exotic wagers, both intra-race and inter-race; but even more important, it's much more embarrassing to miss a Late Pick Four when three quarters of the races have only six runners. So with that as background let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Heavenly Holiday (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Coastal Starlite (ML 8-5)
# 7 Miss Boisterous (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fiesty Coach (ML 20-1)
# 2 Secret Paranoia (ML 9-2)
# 4 Sinawava (ML 15-1)
# 5 Princess Run It (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sittin and Thinkin (ML 20-1)
Heavenly Holiday is the only entrant in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times. Coastal Starlite took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Miss Boisterous was very impressive graduating last time out in her first ever try over the synthetic surface. Also note that Miss Boisterous' trainer, Steve Miyadi, tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Posit (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Illapawnie (ML 9-2)
# 5 Hurley (ML 8-1)
# 6 Three Karyots (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Go Georgie Go (ML 20-1)
# 2 Spanish Magic (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sugarcharged (ML 20-1)
# 7 Able to Smile (ML 5-1)
# 9 Hermajestycommands (ML 12-1)
# 11 Premiere Lady (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Biancas Mandate (ML 12-1)
Posit and Hurley are a pair of invaders from downstate who may appreciate their new surroundings. Three Karyots and Illapawnie filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 On the Key (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Zip the Monkey (ML 5-1)
# 10 Comes the Dream (ML 2-1)
C's
# 2 Monsajem Pervade (ML 10-1)
# 3 Royal Opera House (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Perfect Come Back (ML 8-1)
# 5 Going for the Win (ML 20-1)
# 6 Monsajem Accrete (ML 10-1)
# 8 Son of the South (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Taima the Hawk (ML 3-1)
On the Key is undefeated since rejoining the barn of Trainer Manny Badilla. Zip the Monkey is probably best here as far as talent goes. But Zip the Monkey has been away from competition for over two years, and is running for the first time ever with a price tag on his head. If Zip the Monkey can run at the level that he did previously then he wins easy; but if his connections felt that Zip the Monkey could run at that level, then he wouldn't be entered here.
Comes the Dream ships in from downstate and could move up with the class drop. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - Md $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Empire Rocket (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Startender (ML 10-1)
# 3 Aidan's Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 7 Awesome Ain't Easy (ML 3-1)
# 10 Tiz Toussaud (ML 8-1)
C's
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Heavenly Holiday (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Coastal Starlite (ML 8-5)
# 7 Miss Boisterous (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Fiesty Coach (ML 20-1)
# 2 Secret Paranoia (ML 9-2)
# 4 Sinawava (ML 15-1)
# 5 Princess Run It (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sittin and Thinkin (ML 20-1)
Heavenly Holiday is the only entrant in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times. Coastal Starlite took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Miss Boisterous was very impressive graduating last time out in her first ever try over the synthetic surface. Also note that Miss Boisterous' trainer, Steve Miyadi, tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Posit (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Illapawnie (ML 9-2)
# 5 Hurley (ML 8-1)
# 6 Three Karyots (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Go Georgie Go (ML 20-1)
# 2 Spanish Magic (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sugarcharged (ML 20-1)
# 7 Able to Smile (ML 5-1)
# 9 Hermajestycommands (ML 12-1)
# 11 Premiere Lady (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Biancas Mandate (ML 12-1)
Posit and Hurley are a pair of invaders from downstate who may appreciate their new surroundings. Three Karyots and Illapawnie filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 On the Key (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Zip the Monkey (ML 5-1)
# 10 Comes the Dream (ML 2-1)
C's
# 2 Monsajem Pervade (ML 10-1)
# 3 Royal Opera House (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Perfect Come Back (ML 8-1)
# 5 Going for the Win (ML 20-1)
# 6 Monsajem Accrete (ML 10-1)
# 8 Son of the South (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Taima the Hawk (ML 3-1)
On the Key is undefeated since rejoining the barn of Trainer Manny Badilla. Zip the Monkey is probably best here as far as talent goes. But Zip the Monkey has been away from competition for over two years, and is running for the first time ever with a price tag on his head. If Zip the Monkey can run at the level that he did previously then he wins easy; but if his connections felt that Zip the Monkey could run at that level, then he wouldn't be entered here.
Comes the Dream ships in from downstate and could move up with the class drop. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - Md $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Empire Rocket (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Startender (ML 10-1)
# 3 Aidan's Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 7 Awesome Ain't Easy (ML 3-1)
# 10 Tiz Toussaud (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Sharp Pegasus (ML 30-1)
# 4 Abby's Attitude (ML 8-1)
# 4 Abby's Attitude (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mr. Pappas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mister G. Q. (ML 15-1)
# 9 Davey's Boy (ML 12-1)
Empire Rocket looks quickest here. Startender is a first time starter in a field where the experienced runners haven't been all the impressive. Aiden's Harbor lost his rider at the break last time out; I figure he deserves another try.
Awesome Ain't Easy and Tiz Toussaud are two that could move up with the class drop. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 10 with 7 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,7 with 4,5,6,10 with 7,9,10 with 2,3,7,8,10 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,8 with 10 with 7 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,7,9,11 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 2,3,4,5,6,8 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 7 with 1,4,5,6,9 $2.50
Total: $102.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:28 EDT / 3:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 6, 2019
4/6/19 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview
Saturday is Big 'Cap Day at Santa Anita; and with that event having been postponed from last month, it finds itself sharing the card with the Santa Anita Derby. Saturday is also a mandatory payout day for the Jackpot Pick Six, with the pool currently holding over $800k. So with all that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - [S] The Echo Eddie $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Tap the Wire (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 5 Listing (ML 4-1)
# 6 Foster Boi (ML 3-1)
# 7 Lieutenant Dan (ML 5-2)
# 10 Oliver (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Prodigal Son (ML 20-1)
# 2 Daddy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 3 Moon House (ML 20-1)
# 4 Midnight Special (ML 6-1)
# 9 Principe Carlo (ML 10-1)
Tap the Wire, winner of the Graduation at Del Mar last time out, is making his 2019 debut. Listing has won state bred only stakes on both the turf and the dirt, so the surface switch should not be a problem.
Foster Boi, winner by daylight in his debut last time out, has been working well over the main track in preparation for this contest. Lieutenant Dan defeated open optional claiming company by as many as he wanted last time out, albeit on the synthetic surface upstate at Golden Gate.
Oliver may have needed that last race. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 One Bad Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Mo Reserve (ML 12-1)
# 11 Proud Pedro (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 14 Deep Thinker (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)
# 3 Polar (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bullion (ML 12-1)
# 7 Time Is Now (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ocean Fury (ML 12-1)
# 10 Takeo (ML 20-1)
# 12 Play Money (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Lil Sydney (ML 20-1) and # 13 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)
One Bad Boy and Mo Reserve are a pair making their turf debuts; and their respective breeding suggests that they will do well on the lawn. Proud Pedro (Fr) and Deep Thinker (Ire) are a pair making their North American debuts after running well in their respective native land. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Game Winner (ML 4-5)
B's
# 5 Instagrand (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Roadster (ML 5-2)
# 2 More Ice (ML 30-1)
# 3 Nolo Contesto (ML 6-1)
# 4 Synthesis (ML 30-1)
I went back on forth as to whether or not to include Roadster, the "other" Baffert, on the main ticket. Ultimately I decided to relegate Roadster to backup "C" Selection status, because, while I think Roadster has a decent chance of finishing in front of his stablemate Game Winner, I don't think Roadster will be crossing the wire Saturday in front of the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Instagrand. So I'll be going two deep in this leg, with the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) The Providencia (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Colonial Creed (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Apache Princess (ML 6-1)
# 2 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Flawless (Fr) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Cajun Treasure (ML 12-1)
RACE 6 - [S] The Echo Eddie $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Tap the Wire (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 5 Listing (ML 4-1)
# 6 Foster Boi (ML 3-1)
# 7 Lieutenant Dan (ML 5-2)
# 10 Oliver (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Prodigal Son (ML 20-1)
# 2 Daddy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 3 Moon House (ML 20-1)
# 4 Midnight Special (ML 6-1)
# 9 Principe Carlo (ML 10-1)
Tap the Wire, winner of the Graduation at Del Mar last time out, is making his 2019 debut. Listing has won state bred only stakes on both the turf and the dirt, so the surface switch should not be a problem.
Foster Boi, winner by daylight in his debut last time out, has been working well over the main track in preparation for this contest. Lieutenant Dan defeated open optional claiming company by as many as he wanted last time out, albeit on the synthetic surface upstate at Golden Gate.
Oliver may have needed that last race. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 One Bad Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Mo Reserve (ML 12-1)
# 11 Proud Pedro (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 14 Deep Thinker (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)
# 3 Polar (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bullion (ML 12-1)
# 7 Time Is Now (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ocean Fury (ML 12-1)
# 10 Takeo (ML 20-1)
# 12 Play Money (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Lil Sydney (ML 20-1) and # 13 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)
One Bad Boy and Mo Reserve are a pair making their turf debuts; and their respective breeding suggests that they will do well on the lawn. Proud Pedro (Fr) and Deep Thinker (Ire) are a pair making their North American debuts after running well in their respective native land. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Game Winner (ML 4-5)
B's
# 5 Instagrand (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Roadster (ML 5-2)
# 2 More Ice (ML 30-1)
# 3 Nolo Contesto (ML 6-1)
# 4 Synthesis (ML 30-1)
I went back on forth as to whether or not to include Roadster, the "other" Baffert, on the main ticket. Ultimately I decided to relegate Roadster to backup "C" Selection status, because, while I think Roadster has a decent chance of finishing in front of his stablemate Game Winner, I don't think Roadster will be crossing the wire Saturday in front of the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Instagrand. So I'll be going two deep in this leg, with the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) The Providencia (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Colonial Creed (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Apache Princess (ML 6-1)
# 2 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Flawless (Fr) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Truffalino (ML 10-1)
# 4 Lakerball (ML 10-1)
# 5 Ladymidtown (ML 20-1)
# 7 Maxim Rate (ML 4-1)
# 10 Killarney Lass (ML 20-1)
Colonial Creed moves up in class after just missing in the Blue Norther last time out. Colonial looks like one that can improve with the added real estate.
Draw a line through Apache Princess' last race, as she lost all chance at the start. Lady Prancealot (Ire) could improve with the increase in distance. Hostess (GB) and Miss Flawless (Fr) are a pair making their North American debuts, and they both look well meant here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 McKinzie (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Mongolian Groom (ML 30-1)
# 3 Prime Attraction (ML 5-1)
# 4 Gift Box (ML 6-5)
# 4 Gift Box (ML 6-5)
# 5 Prince of Arabia (ML 30-1)
# 6 Campaign (ML 15-1)
Gift Box seems to have finally gotten over his annoying habit of disappointing as the Post Time Favorite, and is therefore one to be reckoned with. But in the final analysis I don't think Gift Box's chances of upsetting McKinzie justify doubling the cost of the main ticket; so for that reason McKinzie is the big ticket's single, while Gift Box joins the rest of the field as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Rumpus Cat (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 The Hunted (ML 3-1)
# 8 Inscom (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Cajun Treasure (ML 12-1)
# 2 United (ML 15-1)
# 4 Ostini (ML 8-1)
# 5 Colosi (ML 10-1)
# 9 Shaky Alibi (ML 6-1)
# 10 King Caymus (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tequila Joe (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 6 Jungle Warfare (ML 8-1)
Rumpus Cat fits well here on class. The Hunted could improve with the cutback in distance. Inscom could move up with the class drop. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 8 with 5 with 6 with 6 with 1 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,6,7,8,10 with 5,8,11,14 with 5,6 with 1,2,6,8,9 with 1 with 3,7,8 $120.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,3,4,9 with 5 with 6 with 6 with 1 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 8 with 2,3,4,6,7,9,10,12 with 6 with 6 with 1 with 7 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 1,2,3,4 with 6 with 1 with 7 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 6 with 3,4,5,7,10 with 1 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 6 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 6 with 6 with 1 with 1,2,4,5,9,10,11 $1.40
Total: $127.80
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:50 EDT / 2:50 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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