Race 6 - The Palos Verdes - # 3 Conquest Two Step (Final Odds 5.50) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Arcadia - # 9 Avanzare (5.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Las Virgenes - # 7 Callback (2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Eckersley (11.60) - "C" Selection
So much for a chalky sequence! It seems wrong, somehow, to refer to three of those winners as "C" Selections, because of the way we made our play; but, they were on our tickets, so there you have it. We completely whiffed with our "A" Selections, as not only did none of them make it into the Winner's Circle, none of the four finished in the money. We can take some solace in the fact that it was just a wild day at The Great Race Place, as nobody was able to hit the Pick Six or the Super High Five; but the bottom line is that this was a day for us to contribute and not collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 9 / 7 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $1,398.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 31, 2015
1/31/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Turning our attention back to The Great Race Place, where Saturday's card features three Graded Stakes, all of which managed to make their way into the Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Distinctiv Passion (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Big Macher (ML 5-2)
# 5 Wild Dude (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
RACE 6 - (F) The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Distinctiv Passion (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Big Macher (ML 5-2)
# 5 Wild Dude (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Speed dominates in this Graded Stakes for older sprinters, five of whom are making their 2015 debut (# 6 Chief Lion (ML 15-1) who competed on New Years Day, being the lone exception). Distinctiv Passion looks to be the quickest in the field, and he's got the rail - that's gonna be a tough combination for the others to overcome. Note that Distinctiv Passion has been a clear winner each of the last three times that he has drawn the Number 1 Post Position.
Big Macher finished well out of the money in each of his last two tries against Graded Stakes company; but the back class is certainly there, and Big Macher has been working well for this one. Wild Dude, winner of this event last year, is making his first start since April 2014; but Wild Dude has won off an extended vacation before, and the bullet work over this main track on 1/22 suggests that he should be ready to fire. If this contest is won late, Wild Dude looks that the one most likely to be closing at the wire.
RACE 7 - The Arcadia (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Kaigun (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 El Nino Terrible (ML 12-1)
# 8 Za Approval (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Play Hard to Get (ML 20-1) and # 7 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1) have been scratched.
Kaigun, winner of the Grade 2 Seabiscut last time out, seems to be doing quite well stepping out from Wise Dan's shadow. Za Approval ran well (despite the wide trip) in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale last time out and took the Place behind Kaigun in the Seabiscut two starts back; perhaps Za Approval can turn the tables on Kaigun today.
El Nino Terrible makes his turf debut Saturday. His connections had tried to give him a turf start last time out, but that race (which El Nino Terrible won clear) was washed off the grass. El Nino Terrible's damsire is Giant's Causeway, so the turf breeding is there. If El Nino Terrible can get loose on the lead early, he just might steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) The Las Virgenes (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Maybellene (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Callback (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Glory (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
There are nine runners in this field, but if this contest was to be run under the old rules for entries, there would only be four betting interests in this race.
Maybellene, trained by Bob Baffert, has been showing steady improvement, earning a personal career best Beyer Speed Figure in each of her last three races. Last time out, Maybellene was less than a length behind Take Charge Brandi at the wire in the Grade 1 Starlet.
Callback is the "other" Baffert, though don't be surprised if she leaves the gate at lower odds than her stablemate Maybellene. Callback took a nice step forward last time out when she took the Place in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, earning the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process. Callback will lose the blinkers for this one, a move from which Trainer Baffert gets about 23% winners.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Nakamoto (ML 9-2)
B's
# 1 Miltee (ML 12-1)
# 3 Solomon Northup (ML 12-1)
# 7 Rockin Robin (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
# 13 Commander King (8-1) does not draw in from the Also Eligible List.
Nakamoto has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races. Miltee took the Show at this class level the last time that he ran eight furlongs on the grass instead of nine. Solomon Northup makes his North American debut after twice missing graduation by less than a length in Ireland. Rockin Robin took the Place last time out at this class level in a race where he was well ahead after eight furlongs had been run.
OK, that's the analysis; and, to be honest, it looks a little chalky. So what we're going to do, in addition to playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, is play a few tickets where we try to bring home three of our four "A's", and then maybe catch chaos in the remaining leg. So even though we have "None" listed in the "C" Selections above, technically every runner that we didn't use as an "A" or "B" is now a "C". So with all that, here are the tickets that we'll be punching:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5 with 4,6,8 with 2,7 with 1,3,7,8 $36.00
Three A's with ALL
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 8 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 2 with 8 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 4 with 2 with 8 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EST / 3:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
1/27/15 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 7 Relatively Correct (Final Odds 4.40) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 5 Truckin (2.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Russian Dancer (2.50) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Swiss Alpine (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Not a good day for the home team. We were only able to get one "A" Selection home, and that was Swiss Alpine, the only Post Time Favorite to win any of the four legs. To make matters worse, Swiss Alpine was the Favorite that we tried the hardest to beat, as we covered six of the eight runners in that event in one form or another. That was probably our most egregious mistake, though it was hardly our only mistake; the net result being all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 5 / 4 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $103.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 5 Truckin (2.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Russian Dancer (2.50) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Swiss Alpine (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Not a good day for the home team. We were only able to get one "A" Selection home, and that was Swiss Alpine, the only Post Time Favorite to win any of the four legs. To make matters worse, Swiss Alpine was the Favorite that we tried the hardest to beat, as we covered six of the eight runners in that event in one form or another. That was probably our most egregious mistake, though it was hardly our only mistake; the net result being all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 5 / 4 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $103.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/27/15 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview
"You can't have a better tomorrow if you are thinking about yesterday all the time." - Charles Kettering
I've got some time away from the office; the chores are (mostly) done; so let's have a go at a midweek special. The California tracks are dark today, so we'll take our action to Arizona, and take a run at Tuesday's Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - Clm $4k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Gambler Bill (Morning Line 9-2)
# 3 My T Quick (ML 5-2)
# 4 Easy Hit (ML 2-1)
B's
# 6 Song of the Times (ML 8-1)
C’s
None
Gambler Bill and My T Quick are both moving up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures that
they have earned in their last few races fit for this level of competition. Easy Hit gets some class relief after taking the Show in a Starter Stakes last time out. Song of the Times took the Place against more expensive last time out, his first try on the Turf Paradise main track.
Relatively Correct earned a personal career best Beyer Speed Figure last time out while defeating weaker; his rather high Tomlinson Wet Rating suggests that the muddy track that day may have played a role in his performance. Still, Relatively Correct has finished in the money three of the four times that he has competed on this main track, and Trainer Rick Wise wins more than a third of the time when placing his last out victors; so Relatively Correct cannot be easily eliminated from consideration.
RACE 6 - Clm $3k N1Y - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Two Turns (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 Emmy Award Winning (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
# 6 Don'tgetmestarted (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
For the record, the cutoff date is May 6, 2014, for the last win that a runner can have in order to qualify for this event. It looks like Two Turns is the entrant whose most recent victory comes closest to that date, as Two Turns won a similarly conditioned contest over this main track back on April 30, 2014. Since that Win, Two Turns has been competing against N2Y competition, and missed defeating those by just a nose last time out (incidentally, the winner of that photo, Gambler Bill, is competing in the race immediately preceeding this contest; Race 5 above). If that prior effort didn't take too much out of the eleven year old, then Two Turns should be a clear winner today.
Emmy Award Winning took the Show at this level two starts back. Emmy Award Winning was closing well last time out; perhaps the additional furlong and a half gives him the distance he needs to get to the wire first.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 God of War (Brz) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Fox in the House (ML 15-1)
# 4 Russian Dancer (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
# 6 Kahului Bluff (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
God of War (Brz) took the Show two starts back over this turf course at today's distance against more expensive. Russian Dancer broke his maiden the last time that he competed on the grass, so it's not unreasonable to believe that his recent dirt form should carry over to the turf.
The last time Fox in the House competed on the grass was back in February of last year. Fox in the House was pulled up in that contest, and did not return to competition until ten days ago. Prior to that injury Fox in the House had shown the ability to compete and win at this class level on the turf. If Fox in the House is healthy, he can win today.
RACE 8 - Clm $3k N2Y - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Gadsden Purchase (ML 4-1)
# 2 Stormin Along (ML 7-2)
# 5 Swiss Alpine (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Dr. Chocolin (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mr. Sierra (ML 6-1)
# 6 Gifted Crusader (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Gadsen Purchase missed by just a head at this level last time out. Stormin Along won at this class level two starts back, and then took the Show last time out. Swiss Alpine possessor of the last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, has seven Wins in eleven tries in his career over this main track.
Dr. Chocolin, like Fox in the House in Race 7, goes for the tandem of Jockey Kelly Bridges / Trainer Juan Gutierrez, who have won nine of the previous twenty-two races in which they've teamed up. Mr. Sierra took the Show at this class level in both his third and fourth start back. Gifted Crusader has finished in the money in each of his last three races, all at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3,4 with 8 with 3 with 1,2,5 $9.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6 with 7,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 $72.00
Total: $81.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:49 EST / 1:49 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
I've got some time away from the office; the chores are (mostly) done; so let's have a go at a midweek special. The California tracks are dark today, so we'll take our action to Arizona, and take a run at Tuesday's Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - Clm $4k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Gambler Bill (Morning Line 9-2)
# 3 My T Quick (ML 5-2)
# 4 Easy Hit (ML 2-1)
B's
# 6 Song of the Times (ML 8-1)
C’s
None
Gambler Bill and My T Quick are both moving up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures that
they have earned in their last few races fit for this level of competition. Easy Hit gets some class relief after taking the Show in a Starter Stakes last time out. Song of the Times took the Place against more expensive last time out, his first try on the Turf Paradise main track.
Relatively Correct earned a personal career best Beyer Speed Figure last time out while defeating weaker; his rather high Tomlinson Wet Rating suggests that the muddy track that day may have played a role in his performance. Still, Relatively Correct has finished in the money three of the four times that he has competed on this main track, and Trainer Rick Wise wins more than a third of the time when placing his last out victors; so Relatively Correct cannot be easily eliminated from consideration.
RACE 6 - Clm $3k N1Y - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Two Turns (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 Emmy Award Winning (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
# 6 Don'tgetmestarted (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
For the record, the cutoff date is May 6, 2014, for the last win that a runner can have in order to qualify for this event. It looks like Two Turns is the entrant whose most recent victory comes closest to that date, as Two Turns won a similarly conditioned contest over this main track back on April 30, 2014. Since that Win, Two Turns has been competing against N2Y competition, and missed defeating those by just a nose last time out (incidentally, the winner of that photo, Gambler Bill, is competing in the race immediately preceeding this contest; Race 5 above). If that prior effort didn't take too much out of the eleven year old, then Two Turns should be a clear winner today.
Emmy Award Winning took the Show at this level two starts back. Emmy Award Winning was closing well last time out; perhaps the additional furlong and a half gives him the distance he needs to get to the wire first.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 God of War (Brz) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Fox in the House (ML 15-1)
# 4 Russian Dancer (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
# 6 Kahului Bluff (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
God of War (Brz) took the Show two starts back over this turf course at today's distance against more expensive. Russian Dancer broke his maiden the last time that he competed on the grass, so it's not unreasonable to believe that his recent dirt form should carry over to the turf.
The last time Fox in the House competed on the grass was back in February of last year. Fox in the House was pulled up in that contest, and did not return to competition until ten days ago. Prior to that injury Fox in the House had shown the ability to compete and win at this class level on the turf. If Fox in the House is healthy, he can win today.
RACE 8 - Clm $3k N2Y - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Gadsden Purchase (ML 4-1)
# 2 Stormin Along (ML 7-2)
# 5 Swiss Alpine (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Dr. Chocolin (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mr. Sierra (ML 6-1)
# 6 Gifted Crusader (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Gadsen Purchase missed by just a head at this level last time out. Stormin Along won at this class level two starts back, and then took the Show last time out. Swiss Alpine possessor of the last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, has seven Wins in eleven tries in his career over this main track.
Dr. Chocolin, like Fox in the House in Race 7, goes for the tandem of Jockey Kelly Bridges / Trainer Juan Gutierrez, who have won nine of the previous twenty-two races in which they've teamed up. Mr. Sierra took the Show at this class level in both his third and fourth start back. Gifted Crusader has finished in the money in each of his last three races, all at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3,4 with 8 with 3 with 1,2,5 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6 with 7,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 $72.00
Total: $81.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:49 EST / 1:49 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 25, 2015
1/25/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
I really don't have an introduction today; so just pretend that I wrote something wise and witty here, and then let's take a look at Sunday's Golden Pick Six.
RACE 4 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunrise Legacy (Morning Line 7-5)
# 6 Justamitch (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
RACE 4 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunrise Legacy (Morning Line 7-5)
# 6 Justamitch (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Handsome Harvey Jr (ML 7-2) has seemingly made a career out of being just good enough to not get his picture taken, having finished in the Trifecta in seven of his sixteen career races on the Golden Gate main track without ever getting the Win. And Handsome Harvey Jr has done this at nearly all the steadily descending class levels at which he's competed, including this one two starts back. So it seems clear that Handsome Harvey Jr can win if he wants to; the question is, does he want to today? Maybe getting back into competition less than a week after his last race will fool Handsome Harvey Jr into thinking this is just a workout, and he'll run to his true level. But I'm betting that he doesn't; so if Handsome Harvey Jr wins today, this sequence will be over very quickly for us.
Sunrise Legacy took the Place last time out at this level, earning the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process. Justamitch looks to be the clear pacesetter here; and his races from last year show that his speed does carry over from dirt to the synthetic.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Seattle Music (ML 2-1)
# 2 Eddies Little Lady (ML 15-1)
# 2 Eddies Little Lady (ML 15-1)
# 4 Prodicious Facts (ML 8-5)
# 5 Cochinero (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Seattle Music took the Show at this class level two starts back. Eddies Little Lady flashed some early speed in her debut last time out, and adds blinkers today.
Prodicious Facts, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Show at this class level in her last start, albeit on turf. Cochinero is a first time starter by Comic Strip, whose progeny win about 10% of their debuts; not exactly eye-catching, but better than random chance, and the experienced runners here don't look all that menacing.
Prodicious Facts, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Show at this class level in her last start, albeit on turf. Cochinero is a first time starter by Comic Strip, whose progeny win about 10% of their debuts; not exactly eye-catching, but better than random chance, and the experienced runners here don't look all that menacing.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Alli Leigh (ML 3-1)
# 2 Casey's Clem (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
A’s
# 1 Alli Leigh (ML 3-1)
# 2 Casey's Clem (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Alli Leigh took the Show against open (non-conditioned) $20k Claimers last time out; so this is a pretty big class drop. Casey's Clem ships in from downstate where she had been competing against state bred competition.
RACE 7 - (F) Alw 40000s N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Red Hot Rocket (ML 8-5)
# 6 Purims Faith (ML 6-1)
C's
None
# 3 Rosarita (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Note that this Starter Allowance is an N2X, not an N2L. That's because the conditions make an exception for one win for $12.5k or less. Since Purims Faith's second career win was with a $12.5k price tag on her head, the conditions allow for her to compete against the others in this field who have just one career win each. And since Purims Faith is the only runner in the field to have defeated winners, she must be considered a contender here.
Red Hot Rocket has been steadily improving in each of her last three tries at this class level, getting progressively closer to the winner each time. If Red Hot Rocket takes another step forward today, she'll be the one getting her picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 8 - Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Loop Current Eddie (ML 8-5)
# 4 Convinced Himself (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
The conditions for this one limit it to runners that have not won a race since Oct 15, 2014, OR which have never won four races in their career; HOWEVER, don't include claiming and starter allowances where the tag was $3.5k or less when counting to four or looking to see when the last victory was. That's why # 8 Peppered Pro (ML 5-1) is allowed in despite having seven career wins, two of which came past the Oct 15, 2014 cutoff: because those two wins came when Peppered Pro was competing with a $3.2k price tag on his head.
Loop Current Eddie took the Show at this level last time out. Loop Current Eddie was claimed in that event by Trainer John Martin, who gets approximately 21% winners from his runners going first off a claim. Convinced Himself defeated open $5k claimers two start back, in a victory just eleven days prior to the cutoff to be eligible for this contest.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
# 5 Time Jumper (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
With all due respect to Morning Line Favorite # 8 High Greeley (ML 8-5) this one looks to be very competitive. That's primarily because the only two times in his ten race career that High Greeley has gained on the leader in the stretch before the wire were in two races where he finished fifth and tenth, repectively. In other words, High Greeley looks like a runner that will get close, and then back off before they hit the Finish Line. Yeah, hitting the "ALL" button here is going to send us over budget, and it's going to look really foolish if High Greeley is an easy winner; but, when you've hit five-out-of six three straight times, you start to get more than just a little gun shy around races like this.
OK, that's the analysis. Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,6 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,2 with 2,6 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8 $89.60
Total: $89.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:18 EST / 2:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 24, 2015
1/24/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results
Race 4 - # 5 Foolhardy (Final Odds 0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Gem of a Gal (2.10) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Slammer Time (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Sun of Malibu (5.00) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Medicine Gal (3.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Presidentsky (5.60) - "A" Selection
We identified Race 7 as being wide open, and we were correct, as neither the Post Time Favorite # 6 He's Cagey (2.40*) nor the second choice on the board, # 4 Thunder Rode (2.70) finished in the money. But we were wrong to single # 4 Nicole Michelle (1.30*) in Race 5, as the best she could do was second best, a length and three quarters behind Gem of a Gal. And that length and three quarters was the difference between us cashing and not cashing, as for the third time in as many tries this month, we finish with five out of six winners on our Golden Pick Six Ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of 5 / 6 / 2 / 7 / 3 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,444.58 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 5 - # 6 Gem of a Gal (2.10) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Slammer Time (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Sun of Malibu (5.00) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Medicine Gal (3.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Presidentsky (5.60) - "A" Selection
We identified Race 7 as being wide open, and we were correct, as neither the Post Time Favorite # 6 He's Cagey (2.40*) nor the second choice on the board, # 4 Thunder Rode (2.70) finished in the money. But we were wrong to single # 4 Nicole Michelle (1.30*) in Race 5, as the best she could do was second best, a length and three quarters behind Gem of a Gal. And that length and three quarters was the difference between us cashing and not cashing, as for the third time in as many tries this month, we finish with five out of six winners on our Golden Pick Six Ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of 5 / 6 / 2 / 7 / 3 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,444.58 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/24/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
There's a nice card filled with Graded Stakes at Gulfstream Park Saturday; but I saw a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast and got scared away. Considered playing the usual SoCal Late Pick Four, but then I decided to take another run at the Jackpot Pick Six at Golden Gate.
RACE 4 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Foolhardy (Morning Line 1-1)
C’s
None
RACE 4 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Foolhardy (Morning Line 1-1)
C’s
None
# 4 Sourdough Sam (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Starting off with a single, so this could be a very short sequence for us. Foolhardy makes his second start for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and will again have Jockey Russell Baze in the saddle. Foolhardy takes a step down the class ladder, and the most recent Beyer Speed Figures that he has earned would probably get the job done today if repeated.
RACE 5 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Nicole Michelle (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
# 3 Grievous Angel (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least until they finally fix that flaw).
Two legs in, and we have our second single. Nicole Michelle took the Show at this level last time out, albeit on turf. But Nicole Michelle's rather poor Tomlinson Turf Rating suggests that she should improve with the switch back to synthetic.
This event could be tricky, as each of the six entrants seems to have the same pace pressing running style with tactical speed; there doesn't seem to be a pure front runner in this bunch. Of course, jockeys read the Past Performances too; so it should be interesting to see how this race plays out.
RACE 6 - Clm $5k N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Slammer Time (ML 2-1)
# 3 Nina's Dragon (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Slammer Time takes yet another drop down the class ladder today; not just running with a cheaper price tag on his head, but also moving from open to conditioned (N2X) claimers. The Beyer Speed Figures that Slammer Time has earned in his two prior career tries over this main track fit well with the contenders today.
Nina's Dragon won at this class level last time out, hitting the wire a half length in front of American Aristocat. American Aristocat was well in front early in that one and could not hold on; so while it's possible that American Aristocat will be able to hold on until the wire today, it's difficult to wager on that coming to pass.
RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Eight and a half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
ALL
C's
None
Morning Line Favorite # 6 He's Cagey (ML 5-2) is very capable of winning this event, and thus making this wide spread look very foolish. But He's Cagey has settled for a lot of minor awards since posting his last win back in May 2013, and it's not hard to imagine him doing the same again today. And once you consider the field in light of He's Cagey not winning, this becomes a pretty wide open race (actually, even if you like He's Cagey's chances, this is still a pretty wide open race). So we'll just play it as whoever wins, we've got him.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Giant Journey (ML 5-2)
# 3 Medicine Gal (ML 7-2)
# 4 Forever a Fan (ML 8-1)
# 5 Lucky Moment (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Giant Journey and Medicine Gal look to be the only front runners in this field; if either one can put the other away early, the race could be theirs. Forever a Fan missed by a head of winning at this level last time out, albeit on grass. Lucky Moment drops down on the class ladder; while Lucky Moment has proven to be competitive against more expensive, it has been a while since he's gotten his picture taken after a race.
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight and a half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Where's Pepper (ML 8-1)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 3-1)
# 6 Star Student (ML 4-1)
# 7 Unusual Meeting (ML 9-2)
# 8 Presidentsky (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Where's Pepper and Warren's Joe T. both show steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over their last several races. Presidentsky and Star Student finished one-two (respectively) at this class level last time out; but that was on grass, and the switch back to synthetic should favor Star Student.
Unusual Meeting probably should be left off the ticket because of all times that he's already failed at this level; but maybe the change in rider will wake him up.
OK, that's the analysis. Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 5 with 4 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 with 1,3,4,5 with 4,5,6,7,8 $64.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:18 EST / 2:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, January 19, 2015
1/19/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
Here's hoping everyone here in the Good Old USA is enjoying the final day of their extended holiday weekend. For myself, I've decided to use this extra day away from the office to take another crack at Golden Gate's Jackpot wager, The Golden Pick Six.
RACE 3 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Hallie Jae (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Coast Starlite (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
# 5 Cadillac Desert (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Coast Starlite and Hallie Jae took the Place and Show, respectively, in their mutual last out race, which was at this class level last. They each earned a Beyer Speed Figure in their respective two back start that would probably get the job done if repeated today.
RACE 4 - (F) Alw 8000s - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Loveintheshadows (ML 7-2)
# 5 Central Heat (ML 3-5)
# 6 Trappers Magic (ML 8-1)
C's
None
# 2 Irenes Jackpot (ML 5-1) has been scratched.
Take note that, unlike many of the Starter Allowances that are run downstate, there is no restriction in the number of career Wins for the runners in this field.
Central Heat is the Morning Line odds-on Favorite, and yet I'm using two other runners to try to beat her. Why? Good question. Maybe I'm just naturally suspicious of runners with the classy form of Central Heat going after a small purse after a two month layoff. The thing is, this is obviously just a prep race for Central Heat; you know her connections didn't bring her back for her six year old campaign just to have her compete for purses of $13k. But on the other hand, Central Heat has such a class advantage over this field that it's not too difficult to picture her winning this one even without giving one hundred percent effort. Anyway, after giving it a great deal of thought, I decided that I'd rather look foolish by trying to beat Central Heat here than look foolish by singling her and then watching my ticket turn to trash as she turns in a sub-par effort.
Loveintheshadows won at this level last time out. Two starts back Loveintheshadows took the Show against more expensive stock. Trappers Magic looks to have the best chance at picking up the pieces if the front runners can't get it done.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Can Can Babe (ML 9-5)
# 6 Ryder's Starlight (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
# 3 Deb's Wildcard (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Can Can Babe defeated most of her opponents in this one last time out in a contest at this approximate class level. I was tempted to make Can Can Babe a single here, thus halving the cost of my ticket; but having lost yesterday because I left a Bob Baffert Morning Line Favorite off my ticket, I didn't have the courage to tempt Fate again by leaving the Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer / Jockey Russell Baze entrant Ryder's Starlight out of the mix.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Red Sole Diva (ML 6-5)
# 4 Miss Forty Niner (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
# 6 She Hums (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Red Sole Diva took the Place against non-claiming maidens two starts back over this main track. Miss Forty Niner took the Place at this class level last time out, earning the field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
RACE 7 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Pressure Time (ML 2-1)
# 5 Cinco de Mario (ML 3-1)
# 7 Running Water (ML 8-1)
C’s
None
Pressure Time moves up a nudge on the class ladder after winning clear over this main track last time out (yes, today's tag is less than the $4k price tag that Pressure Time had on his head last time out; but the N2X condition allows for entrants with multiple career Wins, which the N2L of Pressure Time's previous race did not). Pressure Time possesses the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Cinco de Mario drops down a bit in price after being competitive in his last two starts against more expensive stock. Cinco de Mario is one of only two runners in this field with multiple Wins on a synthetic surface; Running Water, who is also dropping in class today, is the other.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Headin' to Hap's (ML 20-1)
# 4 Ultra Fame (ML 5-2)
# 6 Blow the Whistle (ML 9-2)
# 9 Mr. Takahashi (ML 6-1)
# 11 First Responder (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Headin' to Hap's took the Show at this class level in his only prior try sprinting over this synthetic main track. Ultra Fame missed by less than a length of graduating in his debut last time out. Blow the Whistle took the Place at this class level last time out.
Mr. Takahashi took the Show at this class level last time out. Also note that Mr. Takahashi's trainer, Blaine Wright, wins a quarter of the time that he sends a maiden out on it's second attempt at graduating. First Responder, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his debut last time out, has been working well for this.
OK, that's the analysis. Since this is a Jackpot wager, so all selections are "A's" and everything goes on a single ticket. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 1,5,6 with 4,6 with 3,4 with 3,5,7 with 1,4,6,9,11 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 3 is 4:45 EST / 1:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Here's hoping everyone here in the Good Old USA is enjoying the final day of their extended holiday weekend. For myself, I've decided to use this extra day away from the office to take another crack at Golden Gate's Jackpot wager, The Golden Pick Six.
RACE 3 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Hallie Jae (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Coast Starlite (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
# 5 Cadillac Desert (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
RACE 4 - (F) Alw 8000s - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Loveintheshadows (ML 7-2)
# 5 Central Heat (ML 3-5)
# 6 Trappers Magic (ML 8-1)
C's
None
# 2 Irenes Jackpot (ML 5-1) has been scratched.
Take note that, unlike many of the Starter Allowances that are run downstate, there is no restriction in the number of career Wins for the runners in this field.
Central Heat is the Morning Line odds-on Favorite, and yet I'm using two other runners to try to beat her. Why? Good question. Maybe I'm just naturally suspicious of runners with the classy form of Central Heat going after a small purse after a two month layoff. The thing is, this is obviously just a prep race for Central Heat; you know her connections didn't bring her back for her six year old campaign just to have her compete for purses of $13k. But on the other hand, Central Heat has such a class advantage over this field that it's not too difficult to picture her winning this one even without giving one hundred percent effort. Anyway, after giving it a great deal of thought, I decided that I'd rather look foolish by trying to beat Central Heat here than look foolish by singling her and then watching my ticket turn to trash as she turns in a sub-par effort.
Loveintheshadows won at this level last time out. Two starts back Loveintheshadows took the Show against more expensive stock. Trappers Magic looks to have the best chance at picking up the pieces if the front runners can't get it done.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Can Can Babe (ML 9-5)
# 6 Ryder's Starlight (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
# 3 Deb's Wildcard (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Can Can Babe defeated most of her opponents in this one last time out in a contest at this approximate class level. I was tempted to make Can Can Babe a single here, thus halving the cost of my ticket; but having lost yesterday because I left a Bob Baffert Morning Line Favorite off my ticket, I didn't have the courage to tempt Fate again by leaving the Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer / Jockey Russell Baze entrant Ryder's Starlight out of the mix.
RACE 6 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Red Sole Diva (ML 6-5)
# 4 Miss Forty Niner (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
# 6 She Hums (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Red Sole Diva took the Place against non-claiming maidens two starts back over this main track. Miss Forty Niner took the Place at this class level last time out, earning the field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
RACE 7 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Pressure Time (ML 2-1)
# 5 Cinco de Mario (ML 3-1)
# 7 Running Water (ML 8-1)
C’s
None
Cinco de Mario drops down a bit in price after being competitive in his last two starts against more expensive stock. Cinco de Mario is one of only two runners in this field with multiple Wins on a synthetic surface; Running Water, who is also dropping in class today, is the other.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Headin' to Hap's (ML 20-1)
# 4 Ultra Fame (ML 5-2)
# 6 Blow the Whistle (ML 9-2)
# 9 Mr. Takahashi (ML 6-1)
# 11 First Responder (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Headin' to Hap's took the Show at this class level in his only prior try sprinting over this synthetic main track. Ultra Fame missed by less than a length of graduating in his debut last time out. Blow the Whistle took the Place at this class level last time out.
Mr. Takahashi took the Show at this class level last time out. Also note that Mr. Takahashi's trainer, Blaine Wright, wins a quarter of the time that he sends a maiden out on it's second attempt at graduating. First Responder, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his debut last time out, has been working well for this.
OK, that's the analysis. Since this is a Jackpot wager, so all selections are "A's" and everything goes on a single ticket. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 1,5,6 with 4,6 with 3,4 with 3,5,7 with 1,4,6,9,11 $72.00
Post Time for Race 3 is 4:45 EST / 1:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 18, 2015
1/18/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 3 Spy Girl (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 5 Global Hottie (2.20) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Thesheetsguy (2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 7 Holy Ascension (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Fly Boy Roy (6.50) - "A" Selection
We played with fire (a Hottie, no less) and got burnt, as our decision to leave the Bob Baffert Morning Line Favorite off our ticket cost us. Global Hottie was an easy winner in Race 2, crossing under the wire three and three quarter lengths in front of Place horse (and "A" Selection) # 3 Wasted At Midnight (2.00*). And that was the difference between us cashing and not cashing, as we connected on each of the other legs. But miss one or miss 'em all, the payout is exactly the same.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 3 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $358.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 5 Global Hottie (2.20) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Thesheetsguy (2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 7 Holy Ascension (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Fly Boy Roy (6.50) - "A" Selection
We played with fire (a Hottie, no less) and got burnt, as our decision to leave the Bob Baffert Morning Line Favorite off our ticket cost us. Global Hottie was an easy winner in Race 2, crossing under the wire three and three quarter lengths in front of Place horse (and "A" Selection) # 3 Wasted At Midnight (2.00*). And that was the difference between us cashing and not cashing, as we connected on each of the other legs. But miss one or miss 'em all, the payout is exactly the same.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 3 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $358.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/18/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview
Switching it up a bit here, moving our focus from late to early and taking a run at Sunday's Pick Five at Santa Anita.
RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Spy Girl (Morning Line 6-5)
C’s
None
Yes, we're singling in the first leg; so this one could be over for us almost as soon as it begins. Spy Girl has finished in the money at this class level in each of her three last races. Spy Girl owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, as well as the best career Beyer, in this field.
RACE 2 - (F) OC 62k/C - Six and a half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Wild in the Saddle (ML 9-2)
# 3 Wasted At Midnight (ML 3-1)
# 6 Kool Kat (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Spy Girl (Morning Line 6-5)
C’s
None
Yes, we're singling in the first leg; so this one could be over for us almost as soon as it begins. Spy Girl has finished in the money at this class level in each of her three last races. Spy Girl owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, as well as the best career Beyer, in this field.
RACE 2 - (F) OC 62k/C - Six and a half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Wild in the Saddle (ML 9-2)
# 3 Wasted At Midnight (ML 3-1)
# 6 Kool Kat (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
Be Proud is a stakes winner, but on the synthetic stuff upstate at Golden Gate Fields. Full Ransom is a Graded Stakes winner, but on turf; this will be Full Ransom's first career start on a fast dirt track. Global Hottie, the Morning Line Favorite, has earned significantly decreasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last three races. So while hitting the "ALL" button is a tempting option in this event, I decided instead to eliminate this half of the field (including both Bob Baffert horses, including the Bob Baffert trained Morning Line Favorite; yes, we are living dangerously these days) from the ticket.
Wild in the Saddle took the Show in a listed stakes last time out. Wasted At Midnight ties Wild in the Saddle for the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Kool Kat is oh-for-six lifetime on a fast dirt track; but the Beyers that she's earned in those half dozen attempts fit well with the contenders here.
RACE 3 - Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Mahalo Arturo (ML 5-2)
# 3 Gallant Charm (ML 7-2)
# 5 Misdeed (ML 5-1)
# 6 Thesheetsguy (ML 9-2)
# 8 Matzoh Ball Magic (ML 5-1)
C's
None
The last time Mahalo Arturo tried going around two turns was in his career debut, and he earned the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of his career. But that was fifteen months ago; perhaps Mahalo Arturo has matured enough where he can handle the distance now; after all, his sire, Square Eddie, was a Grade 1 Stakes winner at today's distance.
Gallant Charm took the Place against more expensive stock the last time he competed on a fast dirt track. Thesheetsguy competes against winners for the first time, but the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out fits with this group. Misdeed and Matzoh Ball Magic both finished in the money last time out at this class level.
RACE 4 - (F) Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Holy Ascension (ML 2-1)
# 10 Cold Spring (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
The Also Eligibles get to stay in the barn and watch the NFL Playoffs.
Holy Ascension has finished in the money each of the three times that she's competed at this class level on a fast dirt track. Cold Spring showed some quickness in her debut last time out, and makes the big drop from the ranks of non-claiming maidens.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/C - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Door's Open (ML 3-1)
# 3 Kafister (ML 7-2)
# 4 May B (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fly Boy Roy (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Door's Open took the Place at this approximate class level last time out; in that same event, Kafister took the Show. Door's Open and Kafister are a combined seven-for-twelve lifetime over the Santa Anita main track.
May B moves up the class ladder after winning by over two lengths last time out at today's distance over this main track. Fly Boy Roy, winner of his only prior career start on the Santa Anita main track, goes for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who seems to be winning every time he wants in the early stages of this meet.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice that there are no backups on the ticket; that's not a change in philosophy, but rather a recognition that I consider the above contests to be too competitive to make such distinctions among the contenders. Besides, we've already left a Morning Line Favorite off the ticket; do we really want to tempt Fate even further? So with all that, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 3 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 with 7,10 with 2,3,4,6 $60.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 17, 2015
1/17/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Top Estate (Final Odds 6.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Megahertz - # 2 Fanticola (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The La Canada - # 4 Thegirlinthatsong (6.50) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Badasmywifeletsmeb (8.20) - "A" Selection
As happens from time to time, we had 'em all, but not all on the same ticket. Make Top Estate a "B" instead of a "C", or make Fanticola an "A" instead of a "B", and we've got. Or, for that matter, make me a Vanderbilt or a Rockefeller, and the rest doesn't matter. In fact, make me enough Rockefellers and I won't even remember what matters.
Anyway, we did some good things today, but not good enough; so the end result is we're left holding a pair of Late Pick Four tickets that are both one winner shy of being eligible to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 4 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $2,376.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Megahertz - # 2 Fanticola (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The La Canada - # 4 Thegirlinthatsong (6.50) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Badasmywifeletsmeb (8.20) - "A" Selection
As happens from time to time, we had 'em all, but not all on the same ticket. Make Top Estate a "B" instead of a "C", or make Fanticola an "A" instead of a "B", and we've got. Or, for that matter, make me a Vanderbilt or a Rockefeller, and the rest doesn't matter. In fact, make me enough Rockefellers and I won't even remember what matters.
Anyway, we did some good things today, but not good enough; so the end result is we're left holding a pair of Late Pick Four tickets that are both one winner shy of being eligible to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 4 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $2,376.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/17/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Saturday kicks off a three day holiday weekend in the USA, and there's quality horse racing galore throughout the nation. As you would expect (especially if you peeked at the title) we'll be turning our attention to The Great Race Place, where half the Late Pick Four is comprised of stakes, including the featured Grade 2 La Canada.
RACE 6 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tiz All That (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Bob Is Back (ML 30-1)
# 9 Momma Tried (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Hot Surfing (ML 4-1)
# 6 North Lake Tahoe (ML 7-2)
# 7 Top Estate (ML 6-1)
# 8 Time Toget Ahead (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Tiz All That and Momma Tried each took the Place against open $30k Maiden Claimers in separate sprints last year, though neither was able to hit the board when previously competing at this class level; a rather odd bit of circumstance, as open $30k Md Clm tend to be a classier group in SoCal than state bred $50k Md Clm. These two look to be the best in today's field, but it's hard to put too much confidence in this pair. I give the edge to Tiz All That for the significantly superior last out Beyer Speed Figure.
If this race was run in the morning rather than the afternoon, Bob Is Back would probably be a Morning Line 3-1 rather than 30-1. Bob Is Back barely picked up his feet in his debut, but he looks ready now; and it was only this past September that Trainer John Ivory got second time starter Ain't Misbehavin home at Final Odds of 71.80.
Hot Surfing is a first time starter sired by Surf Cat, whose progeny win less than five percent of their debuts; hardly a stellar endorsement. However, Hot Surfing is trained by Art Sherman, who does win his fare share of races with first time runners; and the fact that none of the other entrants in this has ever left the gate as the Post Time Favorite, or finished in the money at this class level, suggests that a first time starter deserves to be considered.
North Lake Tahoe had a tough trip on the rail in his debut, and deserves another chance off that effort. Trainer Brian Koriner gets about 29% winners when bringing runners back after a freshening of a month or two, which adds to North Lake Tahoe's appeal.
Top Estate showed some quickness last time out in his debut, although he had nothing left for the drive. Top Estate should improve off that initial effort, though it is concerning that he shows no public workouts since that initial try.
RACE 7 - (F) The Megahertz $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Nashoba's Gold (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Fanticola (ML 4-1)
# 3 Rusty Slipper (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 11 Birdlover (GB) does not draw in from the Also Eligibles List, and gets another Saturday afternoon off.
Nashoba's Gold, winner of a pair of Graded Stakes as a three year old, makes her first start since May of 2014. Trainer Carla Gaines wins with runners such as Nashoba's Gold coming back from an extended layoff over 20% of the time; and since Nashoba's Gold did win her career debut, she is capable of winning off just works.
Fanticola just missed winning this event last year by less than a length. Fanticola has finished in the Trifecta in all five of her career starts on the Santa Anita grass. Rusty Slipper gets some class relief here, as well as a turn back in distance.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lexie Lou (ML 6-5)
# 4 Thegirlinthatsong (ML 8-1)
# 5 Jojo Warrior (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
None
# 2 Sam's Sister (ML 2-1), who would have been an unequivocal "A" Selection here, has been scratched, and is expected to run instead in Monday's Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes.
Can she handle the dirt? That's the question with Lexie Lou, runner up behind California Chrome last time out in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. If Lexie Lou, competing for the first time in her career on a real dirt track, brings her turf course form to the main track today, then she stands an excellent chance of getting her picture taken when this one is over.
Thegirlinthatsong, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place last time out in the Zia Park Oaks behind Cassatt (winner of the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks) and ahead of Shanon Nicole (winner of the Remington Park Oaks and the Indiana Grand Stakes). If Lexie Lou doesn't like the footing, and if Jojo Warrior doesn't regain her prior form, then Thegirlinthatsong is the one that stands out among the rest.
Last time out, in the Grade 1 La Brea, Jojo Warrior earned the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of her career while finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner, Sam's Sister. A return to form certainly would make Jojo Warrior a solid contender here; but with seemingly no excuse for her failure last time out, it's fair to wonder what type of effort to expect today.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 5-1)
# 5 The Custodian (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Cady (ML 3-1)
# 10 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
None
Badasmywifeletsmeb is going for that magical fourteenth time's the charm angle. Somewhat more seriously, this will be just the third time Badasmywifeletsmeb will be routing on the grass; with Unusual Heat as a sire, you would expect this type of race to be what Bad etc etc was bred to win. He's also going to be speed on the rail; and while that's not as big a factor on grass as it is on dirt, it does seem to produce more than its fair share of winners in turf routes at The Great Race Place.
The Custodian took the Show charging down the hill at this class level last time out. Fort Cady took the show two starts back at this class level in his only prior turf route. Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,9 with 2,3,4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $18.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tiz All That (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Bob Is Back (ML 30-1)
# 9 Momma Tried (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Hot Surfing (ML 4-1)
# 6 North Lake Tahoe (ML 7-2)
# 7 Top Estate (ML 6-1)
# 8 Time Toget Ahead (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Tiz All That and Momma Tried each took the Place against open $30k Maiden Claimers in separate sprints last year, though neither was able to hit the board when previously competing at this class level; a rather odd bit of circumstance, as open $30k Md Clm tend to be a classier group in SoCal than state bred $50k Md Clm. These two look to be the best in today's field, but it's hard to put too much confidence in this pair. I give the edge to Tiz All That for the significantly superior last out Beyer Speed Figure.
If this race was run in the morning rather than the afternoon, Bob Is Back would probably be a Morning Line 3-1 rather than 30-1. Bob Is Back barely picked up his feet in his debut, but he looks ready now; and it was only this past September that Trainer John Ivory got second time starter Ain't Misbehavin home at Final Odds of 71.80.
Hot Surfing is a first time starter sired by Surf Cat, whose progeny win less than five percent of their debuts; hardly a stellar endorsement. However, Hot Surfing is trained by Art Sherman, who does win his fare share of races with first time runners; and the fact that none of the other entrants in this has ever left the gate as the Post Time Favorite, or finished in the money at this class level, suggests that a first time starter deserves to be considered.
North Lake Tahoe had a tough trip on the rail in his debut, and deserves another chance off that effort. Trainer Brian Koriner gets about 29% winners when bringing runners back after a freshening of a month or two, which adds to North Lake Tahoe's appeal.
Top Estate showed some quickness last time out in his debut, although he had nothing left for the drive. Top Estate should improve off that initial effort, though it is concerning that he shows no public workouts since that initial try.
RACE 7 - (F) The Megahertz $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Nashoba's Gold (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Fanticola (ML 4-1)
# 3 Rusty Slipper (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 11 Birdlover (GB) does not draw in from the Also Eligibles List, and gets another Saturday afternoon off.
Nashoba's Gold, winner of a pair of Graded Stakes as a three year old, makes her first start since May of 2014. Trainer Carla Gaines wins with runners such as Nashoba's Gold coming back from an extended layoff over 20% of the time; and since Nashoba's Gold did win her career debut, she is capable of winning off just works.
Fanticola just missed winning this event last year by less than a length. Fanticola has finished in the Trifecta in all five of her career starts on the Santa Anita grass. Rusty Slipper gets some class relief here, as well as a turn back in distance.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lexie Lou (ML 6-5)
# 4 Thegirlinthatsong (ML 8-1)
# 5 Jojo Warrior (ML 4-1)
B's
None
None
# 2 Sam's Sister (ML 2-1), who would have been an unequivocal "A" Selection here, has been scratched, and is expected to run instead in Monday's Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes.
Can she handle the dirt? That's the question with Lexie Lou, runner up behind California Chrome last time out in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. If Lexie Lou, competing for the first time in her career on a real dirt track, brings her turf course form to the main track today, then she stands an excellent chance of getting her picture taken when this one is over.
Thegirlinthatsong, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place last time out in the Zia Park Oaks behind Cassatt (winner of the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks) and ahead of Shanon Nicole (winner of the Remington Park Oaks and the Indiana Grand Stakes). If Lexie Lou doesn't like the footing, and if Jojo Warrior doesn't regain her prior form, then Thegirlinthatsong is the one that stands out among the rest.
Last time out, in the Grade 1 La Brea, Jojo Warrior earned the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of her career while finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner, Sam's Sister. A return to form certainly would make Jojo Warrior a solid contender here; but with seemingly no excuse for her failure last time out, it's fair to wonder what type of effort to expect today.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 5-1)
# 5 The Custodian (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Cady (ML 3-1)
# 10 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
None
Badasmywifeletsmeb is going for that magical fourteenth time's the charm angle. Somewhat more seriously, this will be just the third time Badasmywifeletsmeb will be routing on the grass; with Unusual Heat as a sire, you would expect this type of race to be what Bad etc etc was bred to win. He's also going to be speed on the rail; and while that's not as big a factor on grass as it is on dirt, it does seem to produce more than its fair share of winners in turf routes at The Great Race Place.
The Custodian took the Show charging down the hill at this class level last time out. Fort Cady took the show two starts back at this class level in his only prior turf route. Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4,9 with 2,3,4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $54.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $18.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, January 15, 2015
1/15/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 1 Feline Forum (Final Odds 12.10) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 9 Mistaken Identity (4.60) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Lucky J Lane (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Pocketball (1.40*) - "A" Selection
We made some significant errors in today's play, most notably seeing chaos where there was in fact order; as Morning Line Favorite (and Post Time third choice on the board) Mistaken Identity was a clear winner in Race 6. However, despite our errors our margin of defeat was just a half length; as that was the distance between Feline Forum and Place horse # 3 Fantastic Mizz (3.90) at the wire in the opening leg of the sequence. Since we had Fantastic Mizz on our tickets as an "A" Selection, had she been able to hold off Feline Forum for another half length we would have had a ticket with three "A's" and a "C"; a ticket good enough to go to the windows and collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 9 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $413.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 9 Mistaken Identity (4.60) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Lucky J Lane (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Pocketball (1.40*) - "A" Selection
We made some significant errors in today's play, most notably seeing chaos where there was in fact order; as Morning Line Favorite (and Post Time third choice on the board) Mistaken Identity was a clear winner in Race 6. However, despite our errors our margin of defeat was just a half length; as that was the distance between Feline Forum and Place horse # 3 Fantastic Mizz (3.90) at the wire in the opening leg of the sequence. Since we had Fantastic Mizz on our tickets as an "A" Selection, had she been able to hold off Feline Forum for another half length we would have had a ticket with three "A's" and a "C"; a ticket good enough to go to the windows and collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 9 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $413.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/15/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Hey, how about that; found time today for another mid-week special. If the forecast for SoCal holds true, it should be beautiful weather for all five upcoming racing dates at The Great Race Place. Let's see if we can kick it off right by taking a run at Thursday's Late Pick Four.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Fantastic Mizz (Morning Line 9-2)
# 5 Miss Ellany (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Kadaya (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Asano (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Fantastic Mizz took the Show at this level two starts back while charging down the hill. In her last turf route, Fantastic Mizz missed victory by half a length in a Del Mar Starter Allowance that (as can be seen by the chart of the race) was not restricted to non-winners of two lifetime (N2L).
Miss Ellany (Ire) gets some class relief here; but her past performances show a horse that needs the early lead to win; and while Miss Ellany should be up front early, there's a good chance that she'll be pressed by Fantastic Mizz from right out of the gate.
Kadaya (Ire) defeated classier three starts back; the problem is that race was two years ago. The horse Kadaya was then would have chewed up this field and spit it out; but she's no longer the horse she was then, and now it's a question of whether Kadaya can win at this level, or needs to drop further.
Lady Asano gets some much needed class relief, as she has proven herself to be competitive against more expensive stock, but not good enough to get to the wire first against those.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Dreamy Kid (ML 3-1)
# 4 Caramuru (ML 6-1)
# 5 American Act (ML 3-1)
# 6 Life a Riley (ML 8-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Congregationalist (ML 8-1)
# 3 Golden Dynamo (ML 30-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 8-1)
# 8 Powerful (ML 12-1)
# 9 Mistaken Identity (ML 5-2)
As you can tell by the number of runners I'm using, this one looks to be wide open; as it contains a very competitive field with a questionable Morning Line Favorite, this event could be pure chaos. With a larger bankroll I would be tempted to just hit the "ALL" button; but I think we've got it right with the above.
Dreamy Kid makes a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder, going for a higher tag but from a N1Y to a N3L. Dreamy Kid has taken the Place in two of his three career starts on real dirt. Caramuru is also making a bit of a sideways class move, as that was a N2X rather than a N2L that he won last time out.
American Act takes a huge class drop here, and he does own a victory over this main track (in eight prior career tries). The question is can American Act get the early lead, as he seems to need it in order to win. Life a Riley also drops several rungs down on the class ladder, though Life a Riley's dirt form tends to be erratic.
If Mistaken Identity can bring his recent form on synthetic and turf to real dirt, then he should win today; but I'm betting against it. Well, not totally against it, as I am including Mistaken Identity on the ticket as a backup selection, along with all the other runners in this field that are not "A" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Lucky J Lane (ML 7-2)
# 9 Gab Power (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Synnin (ML 4-1)
# 6 Luckbox Sam (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Lucky J Lane returns to turf after trying the main track last time out. Lucky J Lane missed by less than a length in each of his prior two tries on the grass at this class level.
Gab Power returns to California after acquitting himself quite well in a trio of races in Illinois. If he can bring the form that he showed in the Midwest back to Arcadia, he could be the one getting his picture taken when this race is over.
Synnin returns to state bred ranks after defeating open (N2L) company last time out. Luckbox Sam also defeated open company last time out, but on dirt. Luckbox Sam took the Show the last time he competed on the grass at this class level.
RACE 8 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Pocketball (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Unusually Big (ML 5-1)
# 7 My Name Is Bruce (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Pocketball drops back into the Maiden Claiming ranks after taking the Place against non-claiming maidens his last time out. Unusually Big made his debut back in August on the synthetic at Arlington Park; presuming normal maturation, Unusually Big could improve significantly on the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 4 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,6,9 with 4 $32.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,3,7,8,9 with 1,9 with 4 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 2 $8.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Fantastic Mizz (Morning Line 9-2)
# 5 Miss Ellany (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Kadaya (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Asano (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Fantastic Mizz took the Show at this level two starts back while charging down the hill. In her last turf route, Fantastic Mizz missed victory by half a length in a Del Mar Starter Allowance that (as can be seen by the chart of the race) was not restricted to non-winners of two lifetime (N2L).
Miss Ellany (Ire) gets some class relief here; but her past performances show a horse that needs the early lead to win; and while Miss Ellany should be up front early, there's a good chance that she'll be pressed by Fantastic Mizz from right out of the gate.
Kadaya (Ire) defeated classier three starts back; the problem is that race was two years ago. The horse Kadaya was then would have chewed up this field and spit it out; but she's no longer the horse she was then, and now it's a question of whether Kadaya can win at this level, or needs to drop further.
Lady Asano gets some much needed class relief, as she has proven herself to be competitive against more expensive stock, but not good enough to get to the wire first against those.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Dreamy Kid (ML 3-1)
# 4 Caramuru (ML 6-1)
# 5 American Act (ML 3-1)
# 6 Life a Riley (ML 8-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Congregationalist (ML 8-1)
# 3 Golden Dynamo (ML 30-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 8-1)
# 8 Powerful (ML 12-1)
# 9 Mistaken Identity (ML 5-2)
As you can tell by the number of runners I'm using, this one looks to be wide open; as it contains a very competitive field with a questionable Morning Line Favorite, this event could be pure chaos. With a larger bankroll I would be tempted to just hit the "ALL" button; but I think we've got it right with the above.
Dreamy Kid makes a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder, going for a higher tag but from a N1Y to a N3L. Dreamy Kid has taken the Place in two of his three career starts on real dirt. Caramuru is also making a bit of a sideways class move, as that was a N2X rather than a N2L that he won last time out.
American Act takes a huge class drop here, and he does own a victory over this main track (in eight prior career tries). The question is can American Act get the early lead, as he seems to need it in order to win. Life a Riley also drops several rungs down on the class ladder, though Life a Riley's dirt form tends to be erratic.
If Mistaken Identity can bring his recent form on synthetic and turf to real dirt, then he should win today; but I'm betting against it. Well, not totally against it, as I am including Mistaken Identity on the ticket as a backup selection, along with all the other runners in this field that are not "A" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Lucky J Lane (ML 7-2)
# 9 Gab Power (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Synnin (ML 4-1)
# 6 Luckbox Sam (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 10 Accelerant (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Gab Power returns to California after acquitting himself quite well in a trio of races in Illinois. If he can bring the form that he showed in the Midwest back to Arcadia, he could be the one getting his picture taken when this race is over.
Synnin returns to state bred ranks after defeating open (N2L) company last time out. Luckbox Sam also defeated open company last time out, but on dirt. Luckbox Sam took the Show the last time he competed on the grass at this class level.
RACE 8 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Pocketball (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Unusually Big (ML 5-1)
# 7 My Name Is Bruce (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Pocketball drops back into the Maiden Claiming ranks after taking the Place against non-claiming maidens his last time out. Unusually Big made his debut back in August on the synthetic at Arlington Park; presuming normal maturation, Unusually Big could improve significantly on the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 4 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,6,9 with 4 $32.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,3,7,8,9 with 1,9 with 4 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 2 $8.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 11, 2015
1/11/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
“Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine.” - Anthony J. D'Angelo
The forecast calls for more rain on Sunday in Arcadia, home of The Great Race Place; so rather than attempt to handicap the elements again, we'll be shifting our attention Sunday away from Santa Anita and casting our gaze upstate to take a run at Golden Gate Field's Golden Pick Six.
RACE 4 - Md $8k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Storm the Channel (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
None
The forecast calls for more rain on Sunday in Arcadia, home of The Great Race Place; so rather than attempt to handicap the elements again, we'll be shifting our attention Sunday away from Santa Anita and casting our gaze upstate to take a run at Golden Gate Field's Golden Pick Six.
RACE 4 - Md $8k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Storm the Channel (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
None
We're singling right in the very first leg; so this thing could be over for us before it really gets started.
Storm the Channel ships in from downstate to run for the cheapest tag of his career. Storm the Channel makes his first start for Trainer Steve Sherman, who wins with 25% of such. Note that prior conditioner Doug O'Neill, in true Doug O'Neill fashion, had Storm the Channel compete against winners at Del Mar back in July. Despite still being a maiden, Storm the Channel took the Place.
RACE 5 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Miss Lafayette (ML 3-1)
# 5 Kana Flavor (ML 4-1)
# 6 Nevaeh's Promise (ML 9-5)
C's
None
Miss Lafayette has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last two races, both over this main track. Kana Flavor won at this class level over this main track at today's distance last time out; but Kana Flavor did it by wiring the field, and there's no guarantee that she's going to get that early lead today.
Nevaeh's Promise enters this contest having won four of her last five contests. Neveah's Promise has finished in the Exacta in all nine of her career starts over this main track. Today's event is the toughest class test that she's faced in her career so far; but the Beyer Speed Figures that she has earned say she fits; and she figures to have a pace advantage in this field, as there should be enough early speed for her to close into.
RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Great Decision (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Two singles in the first three legs! Well, if you're going to go out, you might as well go out in style.
Great Decision took the Show at this class level four starts back; all of Great Decision's subsequent starts prior to today were against more expensive stock.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 English Lace (ML 15-1)
# 5 Only Josie Knows (ML 6-1)
# 6 Diaminda (Ire) (ML 8-5)
C's
None
Hmmm; the exact same conditions at the exact same distance as Race 5. That's interesting.
English Lace has shown the ability to make the early lead at this class level. Granted, speed on rail doesn't mean as much on plastic as it does on dirt, but it does merit consideration; and there's not much other speed here to keep English Lace company in the early going. In fact, the only runner here that I can see contesting English Lace for the early lead is Only Josie Knows; so let's put her on the ticket as well.
Diaminda (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time she shipped in from SoCal. A repeat of the form that she showed this past Summer at Del Mar should get Diaminda into the Winner's Circle today.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Royal Alexei (ML 5-2)
# 2 Square Jimmer (ML 6-1)
# 5 Alpine Gathering (ML 3-1)
# 6 Arrabiatta (ML 12-1)
C’s
None
Royal Alexei , speed on the rail, took the Place at this level last time out. Square Jimmer took the Place in each of his last two races, both at this class level.
Alpine Gathering has had some interesting placements, competing in Starter Allowances while still a maiden, and then last time out running in an N3L with just one career win. Alpine Gathering can certainly compete at this level; but has he gotten too used to accepting minor awards?
Arrabiatta returns to competition from an extended layoff of about two and a half years; but Trainer Victor Trujillo should have him ready to roll right off the bench. Note that Arrabiatta did win his career debut; so winning just off works is not something foreign to his nature. Note also that Jockey Dennis Carr gets off Square Jimmer to ride Arrabiatta.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
I feel quite confident that I can make a legitimate case for at least six of the eight entrants in this field. That being the case, if by the grace of The Almighty we're somehow still alive at this point in the sequence, there's no point in blowing it in the last leg of the day; especially since there's no consolation payout for getting five out of six.
OK, that's the analysis. Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 2 with 2,5,6 with 7 with 1,5,6 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $57.60
Total: $57.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:20 EST / 2:20 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 10, 2015
1/10/15 GG R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, took another crack at the non-claiming Allowance ranks in Race 8 Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. Starting from Post Position 7, City Chapel (Final Odds 30.60) broke eighth from the gate, came four wide out of the turn, and was gaining on the leader at the wire; but City Chapel couldn't get there quick enough, and finished fifth, two and a quarter lengths behind the winner, # 4 Elmonte Cristo (2.00*).
For his efforts City Chapel earns $540 in purse money for the barn of Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo, bringing City Chapel's total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 to $114,345.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For his efforts City Chapel earns $540 in purse money for the barn of Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo, bringing City Chapel's total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 to $114,345.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Sham - # 7 Calculator (Final Odds 0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Conquest Harlanday (5.50) - "Added" Selection
Race 8 - The San Pasqual - # 2 Hopportunity (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Urban Hunter (3.80) - "Added" Selection
What's the opposite of a bad beat? Well, whatever it is, today was our day to be on the right side of the equation; as Conquest Harlanday defeated our "A" Selection # 2 Secreto Primero (4.40) by the slimmest of margins in Race 7 in order to allow us to cash. Yes, in one of those bizarre twists of fate, had our "A" Selection won Race 7 we would have lost, because the winner of the finale (Urban Hunter) was nowhere to be found on our original tickets, while Secreto Primero was not included on the added ticket that we punched after Race 7 and Race 9 were moved off the Downhill Turf and onto the main track.
Mind you, we cash at a loss; part of that is because we chose not to cancel our earlier tickets. Now that the results are in it can be seen that was not the best of choices; but if Secreto Primero wins that Race 7 photo, and # 5 Royal F J (8.80) gets the Win instead of the Place in the finale, then it's playing the Added Ticket that is the mistake.
But our real mistake is one that I seem to be admitting to all too frequently, and that is trying too hard to beat an odds-on Favorite. We tried to beat two today, and failed both times. Accepting them as the standouts that they proved themselves to be would have cut our investment substantially, and put us in the plus column for the day.
For the record, the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 9 / 2 / 2 pays of $83.95 for a fifty cent wager. As our investment was $93.00, we cash at a loss. Still, you'll hear no complaints from these quarters, as cashing at a loss beats not cashing at all hands down. So we accept cashing as a blessing for which we express our gratitude to The Almighty, and to Conquest Harlanday's nose.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 9 Conquest Harlanday (5.50) - "Added" Selection
Race 8 - The San Pasqual - # 2 Hopportunity (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Urban Hunter (3.80) - "Added" Selection
What's the opposite of a bad beat? Well, whatever it is, today was our day to be on the right side of the equation; as Conquest Harlanday defeated our "A" Selection # 2 Secreto Primero (4.40) by the slimmest of margins in Race 7 in order to allow us to cash. Yes, in one of those bizarre twists of fate, had our "A" Selection won Race 7 we would have lost, because the winner of the finale (Urban Hunter) was nowhere to be found on our original tickets, while Secreto Primero was not included on the added ticket that we punched after Race 7 and Race 9 were moved off the Downhill Turf and onto the main track.
Mind you, we cash at a loss; part of that is because we chose not to cancel our earlier tickets. Now that the results are in it can be seen that was not the best of choices; but if Secreto Primero wins that Race 7 photo, and # 5 Royal F J (8.80) gets the Win instead of the Place in the finale, then it's playing the Added Ticket that is the mistake.
But our real mistake is one that I seem to be admitting to all too frequently, and that is trying too hard to beat an odds-on Favorite. We tried to beat two today, and failed both times. Accepting them as the standouts that they proved themselves to be would have cut our investment substantially, and put us in the plus column for the day.
For the record, the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 9 / 2 / 2 pays of $83.95 for a fifty cent wager. As our investment was $93.00, we cash at a loss. Still, you'll hear no complaints from these quarters, as cashing at a loss beats not cashing at all hands down. So we accept cashing as a blessing for which we express our gratitude to The Almighty, and to Conquest Harlanday's nose.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
“Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending.” - Maria Robinson
The West Coast portion of The Road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday with the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. The Grade 2 San Pasqual is also on the card, so half the Late Pick Four today at The Great Race Place will be Graded Stakes. EDIT - SEE UPDATE BELOW
RACE 6 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rockinatten (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Calculator (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Pioneerof the West (ML 12-1)
# 8 Hero Ten All (ML 4-1)
As was pointed out by Handicapper Candice Hare earlier this week, the shortest Morning Line Odds on Saturday's card at Santa Anita belong to a maiden competing in a Graded Stakes; certainly not your everyday occurrence. So the question that needs answering is: "Is Calculator a legitimate Favorite?"
Calculator certainly has a significant edge in Speed Figures (perhaps not so significant if you're using Brisnet rather than Beyer). In addition, if you minus out one American Pharoah, Calculator is a two time Grade 1 winner.
It's also worth noting that this is not the strongest of fields. None of the runners competing in the Sham Saturday have two lifetime wins. Half the field has yet to win on a fast dirt track. Only two of the eight entrants here went off as the Post Time Favorite in their last race. So these aren't exactly world beaters that Calculator will be facing.
There are, however, concerns, especially when it comes to today's distance. If you look at breeding, then Calculator is definitely out of his element when going around two turns in a single race. Calculator's sire, In Summation, never won a race longer than seven furlongs; likewise for Calculator's grandsire, Put It Back. Note also that Calculator has lost ground on the leader between the top of the stretch and the wire in each of his races beyond five furlongs, including the one without American Pharoah in the field.
So, to sum it all up, in my opinion Calculator is too good relative to the rest of the field to leave off the ticket; but far from good enough to use as a single.
Rockinatten, who was much improved with the addition of blinkers last time out at the racetrack formerly known as Calder, makes his first California start for Trainer Doug O'Neill. I feel confident that Rockinatten can turn in a good performance Saturday even without securing the early lead.
Pioneerof the West's only other career start on a fast dirt track was here back in October, when he took the Place in front of Prospect Park, who graduated next time out. Hero Ten All came off the pace to win at eight furlongs at Los Al last time out; he should be in good position to pick up the pieces if it all falls apart up front.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
A’s
# 2 Secreto Primero (ML 9-2)
# 3 Battle of Evermore (ML 7-2)
# 11 Nakamoto (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Anytime Anyplace (ML 3-1)
All the Also Eligibles get to watch this one from the barn.
The West Coast portion of The Road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday with the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. The Grade 2 San Pasqual is also on the card, so half the Late Pick Four today at The Great Race Place will be Graded Stakes. EDIT - SEE UPDATE BELOW
RACE 6 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rockinatten (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Calculator (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Pioneerof the West (ML 12-1)
# 8 Hero Ten All (ML 4-1)
As was pointed out by Handicapper Candice Hare earlier this week, the shortest Morning Line Odds on Saturday's card at Santa Anita belong to a maiden competing in a Graded Stakes; certainly not your everyday occurrence. So the question that needs answering is: "Is Calculator a legitimate Favorite?"
Calculator certainly has a significant edge in Speed Figures (perhaps not so significant if you're using Brisnet rather than Beyer). In addition, if you minus out one American Pharoah, Calculator is a two time Grade 1 winner.
It's also worth noting that this is not the strongest of fields. None of the runners competing in the Sham Saturday have two lifetime wins. Half the field has yet to win on a fast dirt track. Only two of the eight entrants here went off as the Post Time Favorite in their last race. So these aren't exactly world beaters that Calculator will be facing.
There are, however, concerns, especially when it comes to today's distance. If you look at breeding, then Calculator is definitely out of his element when going around two turns in a single race. Calculator's sire, In Summation, never won a race longer than seven furlongs; likewise for Calculator's grandsire, Put It Back. Note also that Calculator has lost ground on the leader between the top of the stretch and the wire in each of his races beyond five furlongs, including the one without American Pharoah in the field.
So, to sum it all up, in my opinion Calculator is too good relative to the rest of the field to leave off the ticket; but far from good enough to use as a single.
Rockinatten, who was much improved with the addition of blinkers last time out at the racetrack formerly known as Calder, makes his first California start for Trainer Doug O'Neill. I feel confident that Rockinatten can turn in a good performance Saturday even without securing the early lead.
Pioneerof the West's only other career start on a fast dirt track was here back in October, when he took the Place in front of Prospect Park, who graduated next time out. Hero Ten All came off the pace to win at eight furlongs at Los Al last time out; he should be in good position to pick up the pieces if it all falls apart up front.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
A’s
# 2 Secreto Primero (ML 9-2)
# 3 Battle of Evermore (ML 7-2)
# 11 Nakamoto (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Anytime Anyplace (ML 3-1)
All the Also Eligibles get to watch this one from the barn.
Secreto Primero took the Show at this level charging down the hill last time out. Battle of Evermore took the Place two starts back charging down the hill. Nakamoto, who has shown good early speed in his turf routes, has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races.
Anytime Anyplace showed good early speed in his debut on the fake stuff. If his form holds with the surface switch, and if # 12 Discreet Prince (ML 12-1) doesn't draw in (EDIT: he didn't), Anytime Anyplace could be too far in front to catch while the others are still crossing the dirt path.
RACE 8 - The San Pasqual (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Hoppertunity (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 6 Bronzo (Chi) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Tonito M. (ML 10-1)
Hoppertunity, winner of the Grade 1 Clark Handicap last time out, looks like much the best here, at least on paper. A slight regressive off the career best Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in the Clark should still allow him to get the job done today; however, anything more than a slight regression could open this race up to all comers.
Bronzo (Chi) was simply outclassed in his North American debut in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile; that may not be the case today. Tonito M., winner of the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby two starts back, took the Place last time out behind winner Alert Bay (winner of the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile next time out) and ahead of Show horse Proceed (Proceed's only career loss in six starts).
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
A’s
# 1 Compari (ML 6-1)
# 3 Smokey Lonesome (ML 12-1)
# 8 Snowday (Fr) (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 5 Royal F J (ML 6-1)
# 6 Fighting On (ML 5-1)
# 10 Meyden Magic (ML 6-1)
The Also Eligibles get to take the day off.
Compari continues his trek down the class ladder, having taken the Place two starts back against more expensive stock. Smokey Lonesome returns after a prolonged layoff at a reduced price; usually such a move is a big red flag, but as Smokey Lonesome's last two wins were also the last two times that he competed against pure claimers, it seems appropriate.
Snowday (Fr), the Morning Line Favorite, has yet to win in North America; indeed, Snowday is winless since taking the Group 3 Prix du Bois in his native France back in July 2012. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer plays the claiming game well; but while I respect Snowday's chances of crossing the wire first today, if I was playing the Win Pool, I'd want more than 2-1 for a runner that is oh-for-his last eleven.
Royal F J gets some much need class relief. Fighting On took the Show at this class level two starts back. Two starts prior to that, Fighting On won at this class level charging down the hill. Meyden Magic, coming back from an extended vacation, shows an above average worktab.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 1,3,8 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 1,3,8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1 with 2 with 1,3,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 6,11 with 1,3,8 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 5,6,10 $9.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT - Races 7 and 9 have been taken off the turf. However, I won't be cancelling the above tickets. The reason for that is because in each race taken off the turf we've had "A" Selections that are now scratched: # 11 Nakamoto in Race 7; # 1 Compari and # 3 Smokey Lonesome in Race 9. Since we'll be getting the Post Time Favorite in each of those legs as "A" Selections, I feel confident that our play above is still sound. However, I will be adding one additional ticket to the mix:
Added Ticket
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7 with 1,8,9 with 2,3 with 2,8,9 $36
Which brings makes for a new
Total: $93.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT - Races 7 and 9 have been taken off the turf. However, I won't be cancelling the above tickets. The reason for that is because in each race taken off the turf we've had "A" Selections that are now scratched: # 11 Nakamoto in Race 7; # 1 Compari and # 3 Smokey Lonesome in Race 9. Since we'll be getting the Post Time Favorite in each of those legs as "A" Selections, I feel confident that our play above is still sound. However, I will be adding one additional ticket to the mix:
Added Ticket
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7 with 1,8,9 with 2,3 with 2,8,9 $36
Which brings makes for a new
Total: $93.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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