The West Coast portion of The Road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday with the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. The Grade 2 San Pasqual is also on the card, so half the Late Pick Four today at The Great Race Place will be Graded Stakes. EDIT - SEE UPDATE BELOW
RACE 6 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rockinatten (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Calculator (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Pioneerof the West (ML 12-1)
# 8 Hero Ten All (ML 4-1)
As was pointed out by Handicapper Candice Hare earlier this week, the shortest Morning Line Odds on Saturday's card at Santa Anita belong to a maiden competing in a Graded Stakes; certainly not your everyday occurrence. So the question that needs answering is: "Is Calculator a legitimate Favorite?"
Calculator certainly has a significant edge in Speed Figures (perhaps not so significant if you're using Brisnet rather than Beyer). In addition, if you minus out one American Pharoah, Calculator is a two time Grade 1 winner.
It's also worth noting that this is not the strongest of fields. None of the runners competing in the Sham Saturday have two lifetime wins. Half the field has yet to win on a fast dirt track. Only two of the eight entrants here went off as the Post Time Favorite in their last race. So these aren't exactly world beaters that Calculator will be facing.
There are, however, concerns, especially when it comes to today's distance. If you look at breeding, then Calculator is definitely out of his element when going around two turns in a single race. Calculator's sire, In Summation, never won a race longer than seven furlongs; likewise for Calculator's grandsire, Put It Back. Note also that Calculator has lost ground on the leader between the top of the stretch and the wire in each of his races beyond five furlongs, including the one without American Pharoah in the field.
So, to sum it all up, in my opinion Calculator is too good relative to the rest of the field to leave off the ticket; but far from good enough to use as a single.
Rockinatten, who was much improved with the addition of blinkers last time out at the racetrack formerly known as Calder, makes his first California start for Trainer Doug O'Neill. I feel confident that Rockinatten can turn in a good performance Saturday even without securing the early lead.
Pioneerof the West's only other career start on a fast dirt track was here back in October, when he took the Place in front of Prospect Park, who graduated next time out. Hero Ten All came off the pace to win at eight furlongs at Los Al last time out; he should be in good position to pick up the pieces if it all falls apart up front.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
A’s
# 2 Secreto Primero (ML 9-2)
# 3 Battle of Evermore (ML 7-2)
# 11 Nakamoto (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Anytime Anyplace (ML 3-1)
All the Also Eligibles get to watch this one from the barn.
Secreto Primero took the Show at this level charging down the hill last time out. Battle of Evermore took the Place two starts back charging down the hill. Nakamoto, who has shown good early speed in his turf routes, has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races.
Anytime Anyplace showed good early speed in his debut on the fake stuff. If his form holds with the surface switch, and if # 12 Discreet Prince (ML 12-1) doesn't draw in (EDIT: he didn't), Anytime Anyplace could be too far in front to catch while the others are still crossing the dirt path.
RACE 8 - The San Pasqual (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Hoppertunity (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 6 Bronzo (Chi) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Tonito M. (ML 10-1)
Hoppertunity, winner of the Grade 1 Clark Handicap last time out, looks like much the best here, at least on paper. A slight regressive off the career best Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in the Clark should still allow him to get the job done today; however, anything more than a slight regression could open this race up to all comers.
Bronzo (Chi) was simply outclassed in his North American debut in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile; that may not be the case today. Tonito M., winner of the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby two starts back, took the Place last time out behind winner Alert Bay (winner of the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile next time out) and ahead of Show horse Proceed (Proceed's only career loss in six starts).
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
EDIT - OFF TURF - SEE BELOW
A’s
# 1 Compari (ML 6-1)
# 3 Smokey Lonesome (ML 12-1)
# 8 Snowday (Fr) (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 5 Royal F J (ML 6-1)
# 6 Fighting On (ML 5-1)
# 10 Meyden Magic (ML 6-1)
The Also Eligibles get to take the day off.
Compari continues his trek down the class ladder, having taken the Place two starts back against more expensive stock. Smokey Lonesome returns after a prolonged layoff at a reduced price; usually such a move is a big red flag, but as Smokey Lonesome's last two wins were also the last two times that he competed against pure claimers, it seems appropriate.
Snowday (Fr), the Morning Line Favorite, has yet to win in North America; indeed, Snowday is winless since taking the Group 3 Prix du Bois in his native France back in July 2012. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer plays the claiming game well; but while I respect Snowday's chances of crossing the wire first today, if I was playing the Win Pool, I'd want more than 2-1 for a runner that is oh-for-his last eleven.
Royal F J gets some much need class relief. Fighting On took the Show at this class level two starts back. Two starts prior to that, Fighting On won at this class level charging down the hill. Meyden Magic, coming back from an extended vacation, shows an above average worktab.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 1,3,8 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 1,3,8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1 with 2 with 1,3,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 6,11 with 1,3,8 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,11 with 2 with 5,6,10 $9.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT - Races 7 and 9 have been taken off the turf. However, I won't be cancelling the above tickets. The reason for that is because in each race taken off the turf we've had "A" Selections that are now scratched: # 11 Nakamoto in Race 7; # 1 Compari and # 3 Smokey Lonesome in Race 9. Since we'll be getting the Post Time Favorite in each of those legs as "A" Selections, I feel confident that our play above is still sound. However, I will be adding one additional ticket to the mix:
Added Ticket
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7 with 1,8,9 with 2,3 with 2,8,9 $36
Which brings makes for a new
Total: $93.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT - Races 7 and 9 have been taken off the turf. However, I won't be cancelling the above tickets. The reason for that is because in each race taken off the turf we've had "A" Selections that are now scratched: # 11 Nakamoto in Race 7; # 1 Compari and # 3 Smokey Lonesome in Race 9. Since we'll be getting the Post Time Favorite in each of those legs as "A" Selections, I feel confident that our play above is still sound. However, I will be adding one additional ticket to the mix:
Added Ticket
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7 with 1,8,9 with 2,3 with 2,8,9 $36
Which brings makes for a new
Total: $93.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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