RACE 6 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tiz All That (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Bob Is Back (ML 30-1)
# 9 Momma Tried (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Hot Surfing (ML 4-1)
# 6 North Lake Tahoe (ML 7-2)
# 7 Top Estate (ML 6-1)
# 8 Time Toget Ahead (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Tiz All That and Momma Tried each took the Place against open $30k Maiden Claimers in separate sprints last year, though neither was able to hit the board when previously competing at this class level; a rather odd bit of circumstance, as open $30k Md Clm tend to be a classier group in SoCal than state bred $50k Md Clm. These two look to be the best in today's field, but it's hard to put too much confidence in this pair. I give the edge to Tiz All That for the significantly superior last out Beyer Speed Figure.
If this race was run in the morning rather than the afternoon, Bob Is Back would probably be a Morning Line 3-1 rather than 30-1. Bob Is Back barely picked up his feet in his debut, but he looks ready now; and it was only this past September that Trainer John Ivory got second time starter Ain't Misbehavin home at Final Odds of 71.80.
Hot Surfing is a first time starter sired by Surf Cat, whose progeny win less than five percent of their debuts; hardly a stellar endorsement. However, Hot Surfing is trained by Art Sherman, who does win his fare share of races with first time runners; and the fact that none of the other entrants in this has ever left the gate as the Post Time Favorite, or finished in the money at this class level, suggests that a first time starter deserves to be considered.
North Lake Tahoe had a tough trip on the rail in his debut, and deserves another chance off that effort. Trainer Brian Koriner gets about 29% winners when bringing runners back after a freshening of a month or two, which adds to North Lake Tahoe's appeal.
Top Estate showed some quickness last time out in his debut, although he had nothing left for the drive. Top Estate should improve off that initial effort, though it is concerning that he shows no public workouts since that initial try.
RACE 7 - (F) The Megahertz $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Nashoba's Gold (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Fanticola (ML 4-1)
# 3 Rusty Slipper (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 11 Birdlover (GB) does not draw in from the Also Eligibles List, and gets another Saturday afternoon off.
Nashoba's Gold, winner of a pair of Graded Stakes as a three year old, makes her first start since May of 2014. Trainer Carla Gaines wins with runners such as Nashoba's Gold coming back from an extended layoff over 20% of the time; and since Nashoba's Gold did win her career debut, she is capable of winning off just works.
Fanticola just missed winning this event last year by less than a length. Fanticola has finished in the Trifecta in all five of her career starts on the Santa Anita grass. Rusty Slipper gets some class relief here, as well as a turn back in distance.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lexie Lou (ML 6-5)
# 4 Thegirlinthatsong (ML 8-1)
# 5 Jojo Warrior (ML 4-1)
B's
None
None
# 2 Sam's Sister (ML 2-1), who would have been an unequivocal "A" Selection here, has been scratched, and is expected to run instead in Monday's Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes.
Can she handle the dirt? That's the question with Lexie Lou, runner up behind California Chrome last time out in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. If Lexie Lou, competing for the first time in her career on a real dirt track, brings her turf course form to the main track today, then she stands an excellent chance of getting her picture taken when this one is over.
Thegirlinthatsong, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place last time out in the Zia Park Oaks behind Cassatt (winner of the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks) and ahead of Shanon Nicole (winner of the Remington Park Oaks and the Indiana Grand Stakes). If Lexie Lou doesn't like the footing, and if Jojo Warrior doesn't regain her prior form, then Thegirlinthatsong is the one that stands out among the rest.
Last time out, in the Grade 1 La Brea, Jojo Warrior earned the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of her career while finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner, Sam's Sister. A return to form certainly would make Jojo Warrior a solid contender here; but with seemingly no excuse for her failure last time out, it's fair to wonder what type of effort to expect today.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 5-1)
# 5 The Custodian (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Cady (ML 3-1)
# 10 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C’s
None
Badasmywifeletsmeb is going for that magical fourteenth time's the charm angle. Somewhat more seriously, this will be just the third time Badasmywifeletsmeb will be routing on the grass; with Unusual Heat as a sire, you would expect this type of race to be what Bad etc etc was bred to win. He's also going to be speed on the rail; and while that's not as big a factor on grass as it is on dirt, it does seem to produce more than its fair share of winners in turf routes at The Great Race Place.
The Custodian took the Show charging down the hill at this class level last time out. Fort Cady took the show two starts back at this class level in his only prior turf route. Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4,9 with 2,3,4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $54.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 4 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,7,10 $18.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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