Saturday, January 10, 2015

1/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Sham - # 7 Calculator (Final Odds 0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Conquest Harlanday (5.50) - "Added" Selection
Race 8 - The San Pasqual - # 2 Hopportunity (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Urban Hunter (3.80) - "Added" Selection

What's the opposite of a bad beat?  Well, whatever it is, today was our day to be on the right side of the equation; as Conquest Harlanday defeated our "A" Selection # 2 Secreto Primero (4.40) by the slimmest of margins in Race 7 in order to allow us to cash.  Yes, in one of those bizarre twists of fate, had our "A" Selection won Race 7 we would have lost, because the winner of the finale (Urban Hunter) was nowhere to be found on our original tickets, while Secreto Primero was not included on the added ticket that we punched after Race 7 and Race 9 were moved off the Downhill Turf and onto the main track.  

Mind you, we cash at a loss; part of that is because we chose not to cancel our earlier tickets.  Now that the results are in it can be seen that was not the best of choices; but if Secreto Primero wins that Race 7 photo, and # 5 Royal F J (8.80) gets the Win instead of the Place in the finale, then it's playing the Added Ticket that is the mistake.  

But our real mistake is one that I seem to be admitting to all too frequently, and that is trying too hard to beat an odds-on Favorite.  We tried to beat two today, and failed both times.  Accepting them as the standouts that they proved themselves to be would have cut our investment substantially, and put us in the plus column for the day.

For the record, the correct Pick Four sequence of  7 / 9 / 2 / 2  pays of $83.95 for a fifty cent wager.  As our investment was $93.00, we cash at a loss.  Still, you'll hear no complaints from these quarters, as cashing at a loss beats not cashing at all hands down.  So we accept cashing as a blessing for which we express our gratitude to The Almighty, and to Conquest Harlanday's nose.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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