RACE 5 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Fantastic Mizz (Morning Line 9-2)
# 5 Miss Ellany (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Kadaya (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Asano (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Fantastic Mizz took the Show at this level two starts back while charging down the hill. In her last turf route, Fantastic Mizz missed victory by half a length in a Del Mar Starter Allowance that (as can be seen by the chart of the race) was not restricted to non-winners of two lifetime (N2L).
Miss Ellany (Ire) gets some class relief here; but her past performances show a horse that needs the early lead to win; and while Miss Ellany should be up front early, there's a good chance that she'll be pressed by Fantastic Mizz from right out of the gate.
Kadaya (Ire) defeated classier three starts back; the problem is that race was two years ago. The horse Kadaya was then would have chewed up this field and spit it out; but she's no longer the horse she was then, and now it's a question of whether Kadaya can win at this level, or needs to drop further.
Lady Asano gets some much needed class relief, as she has proven herself to be competitive against more expensive stock, but not good enough to get to the wire first against those.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Dreamy Kid (ML 3-1)
# 4 Caramuru (ML 6-1)
# 5 American Act (ML 3-1)
# 6 Life a Riley (ML 8-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Congregationalist (ML 8-1)
# 3 Golden Dynamo (ML 30-1)
# 7 Take a Risk (ML 8-1)
# 8 Powerful (ML 12-1)
# 9 Mistaken Identity (ML 5-2)
As you can tell by the number of runners I'm using, this one looks to be wide open; as it contains a very competitive field with a questionable Morning Line Favorite, this event could be pure chaos. With a larger bankroll I would be tempted to just hit the "ALL" button; but I think we've got it right with the above.
Dreamy Kid makes a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder, going for a higher tag but from a N1Y to a N3L. Dreamy Kid has taken the Place in two of his three career starts on real dirt. Caramuru is also making a bit of a sideways class move, as that was a N2X rather than a N2L that he won last time out.
American Act takes a huge class drop here, and he does own a victory over this main track (in eight prior career tries). The question is can American Act get the early lead, as he seems to need it in order to win. Life a Riley also drops several rungs down on the class ladder, though Life a Riley's dirt form tends to be erratic.
If Mistaken Identity can bring his recent form on synthetic and turf to real dirt, then he should win today; but I'm betting against it. Well, not totally against it, as I am including Mistaken Identity on the ticket as a backup selection, along with all the other runners in this field that are not "A" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Lucky J Lane (ML 7-2)
# 9 Gab Power (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Synnin (ML 4-1)
# 6 Luckbox Sam (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 10 Accelerant (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Gab Power returns to California after acquitting himself quite well in a trio of races in Illinois. If he can bring the form that he showed in the Midwest back to Arcadia, he could be the one getting his picture taken when this race is over.
Synnin returns to state bred ranks after defeating open (N2L) company last time out. Luckbox Sam also defeated open company last time out, but on dirt. Luckbox Sam took the Show the last time he competed on the grass at this class level.
RACE 8 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Pocketball (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Unusually Big (ML 5-1)
# 7 My Name Is Bruce (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Pocketball drops back into the Maiden Claiming ranks after taking the Place against non-claiming maidens his last time out. Unusually Big made his debut back in August on the synthetic at Arlington Park; presuming normal maturation, Unusually Big could improve significantly on the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 4 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,6,9 with 4 $32.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,3,7,8,9 with 1,9 with 4 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,9 with 2 $8.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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